Brock Burke — OGILVIE

Brock Burke P Cincinnati Reds

Age 29 LHP 6'4" / 210 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION69 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8593vR 101

ERA3.83

FIP3.77

K%23.3%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%14.6%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 75 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†5055

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7496.2

Whiff%

p7429.0%

p6124.3%

xwOBA vs

p680.294

FB+2.5 (54%)

CH (18%)

SI (14%)

SL (28%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	18	ROK MLE	Princeton Rays	11	11	53	219	35	11	3	100%	4.8	10.9%	6.3%	4.6%	1.9%	3.42	4.03	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	Princeton Rays	11	11	53	219	35	11	3	100%	4.8	16.0%	5.0%	11.0%	1.4%	3.42	3.14	—
2017	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	124	511	108	36	6	100%	5.4	15.9%	8.2%	7.7%	1.6%	2.98	3.67	—
2017	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	124	511	108	36	6	100%	5.4	21.1%	7.0%	14.1%	1.2%	2.98	2.86	—
2018	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	22	137	582	158	44	6	88%	5.5	21.4%	8.6%	12.8%	1.4%	3.08	3.16	—
2018	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	22	137	582	158	44	6	88%	5.5	27.1%	7.6%	19.6%	1.0%	3.08	2.33	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	5 levels	19	19	89	380	78	29	9	100%	4.7	17.7%	8.0%	9.7%	2.6%	4.96	4.02	+0.9
2019	22	MIX RAW	5 levels	19	19	89	380	78	29	9	100%	4.7	20.5%	7.6%	12.9%	2.4%	4.96	3.64	+1.4
2021	24	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	21	20	78	336	97	31	13	95%	3.7	25.4%	9.7%	15.7%	4.4%	5.68	4.62	—
2021	24	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	21	20	78	336	97	31	13	95%	3.7	28.9%	9.2%	19.6%	3.9%	5.68	3.98	—
2022	25	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	52	0	82	328	90	23	9	0%	1.6	27.4%	7.0%	20.4%	2.6%	1.97	3.07	+1.5
2022	25	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	52	0	82	328	90	23	9	0%	1.6	27.4%	7.0%	20.4%	2.7%	1.97	3.17	+1.4
2023	26	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	53	0	60	250	52	5	13	0%	1.1	20.8%	2.0%	18.8%	4.8%	4.37	4.25	+0.2
2023	26	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	53	0	60	250	52	5	13	0%	1.1	20.8%	2.0%	18.8%	4.8%	4.37	4.25	+0.2
2023	26	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	53	0	60	250	52	5	13	0%	1.1	20.8%	2.0%	18.8%	5.2%	4.37	4.44	+0.1
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	52	3	56	257	62	26	5	6%	1.1	22.0%	9.9%	12.1%	2.0%	5.43	3.62	+0.6
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	52	3	56	257	62	26	5	6%	1.1	22.0%	9.9%	12.1%	2.0%	5.43	3.62	+0.6
2024	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	52	3	56	257	62	26	5	6%	1.1	24.1%	10.1%	14.0%	1.9%	5.43	3.44	+0.7
2025	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	69	1	62	257	52	14	8	1%	0.9	20.2%	5.4%	14.8%	3.1%	3.36	3.76	+0.6
2025	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	69	1	62	257	52	14	8	1%	0.9	20.2%	5.4%	14.8%	3.1%	3.36	3.76	+0.6
2025	28	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	69	1	62	257	52	14	8	1%	0.9	20.2%	5.4%	14.8%	3.1%	3.36	3.78	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			286	8	334	1405	321	100	45	3%	1.2	22.8%	7.1%	15.7%	3.2%	3.59	3.83	+2.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	72	0	69	296	72	33	5	0%	1.0	24.3%	11.1%	13.2%	1.6%	2.47	3.32	+1.0
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	72	0	69	296	72	33	5	0%	1.0	24.3%	11.1%	13.2%	1.6%	2.47	3.32	+1.0
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	MLB RAW	CIN	72	0	69	296	72	33	5	0%	1.0	24.3%	11.1%	13.2%	1.7%	2.47	3.39	+1.0
SO FAR	29	MLB RAW	CIN	72	0	69	296	72	33	5	0%	1.0	24.3%	11.1%	13.2%	1.7%	2.47	3.39	+1.0
ROS	29	MLB MLE	CIN	5	0	5	23	5	2	1	0%	1.1	23.3%	8.6%	14.6%	2.8%	3.83	3.77	+0.1
ROS	29	MLB CTX	CIN	5	0	5	21	5	2	1	0%	1.0	23.3%	8.6%	14.6%	2.8%	3.83	3.77	+0.0
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	CIN	—	—	75	319	77	35	6	—	—	24.2%	11.0%	13.3%	1.8%	2.57	3.35	+1.2
FULL	29	MLB A+C	CIN	—	—	75	316	77	35	6	—	—	24.5%	11.1%	13.4%	1.8%	2.57	3.42	+1.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	CIN	54	0	56	238	53	21	6	0%	1.0	22.3%	8.9%	13.4%	2.7%	4.16	4.22	+0.2
2028	31	MLB MLE	CIN	50	0	52	222	48	21	7	0%	1.1	21.6%	9.3%	12.3%	2.9%	4.33	4.45	+0.1
2027	30	MLB CTX	CIN	50	0	53	224	50	20	6	0%	1.1	22.3%	8.9%	13.4%	2.7%	4.16	4.22	+0.2
2028	31	MLB CTX	CIN	48	0	50	211	46	20	6	0%	1.0	21.6%	9.3%	12.3%	2.9%	4.33	4.45	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		390	8	442	1864	422	142	58	2%	1.1	22.6%	7.6%	15.0%	3.1%	3.74	3.86	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		176	4	200	843	191	64	26	2%	1.1	22.6%	7.6%	15.0%	3.1%	3.74	3.86	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		397	99	810	3416	705	269	83	25%	2.0	20.6%	7.9%	12.8%	2.4%	3.66	3.70	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		98	24	200	844	174	66	21	25%	2.0	20.6%	7.9%	12.8%	2.4%	3.66	3.70	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brock Burke (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.12	21.7%	6.5%	3.0%	—	4.33	22.0%	12.8%	109	+0.21	—	—	—
Josh Smoker L 2018 · 3.66 FIP	29	SU	3.66	22.1%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	6.58	14.2%	3.4%	14	+2.92	2.71	230	75
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	75
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	75
Jake Diekman L 2016 · 3.23 FIP	29	SU	3.23	26.7%	11.3%	1.7%	.241	3.09	28.6%	15.8%	115	-0.14	2.36	455	73
Jeremy Horst L 2015 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	18.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.291	3.71	15.1%	2.7%	48	-0.38	3.71	108	71
Sammy Solís L 2018 · 4.39 FIP	29	SU	4.39	24.9%	9.6%	4.0%	.330	4.05	26.2%	17.3%	23	-0.34	2.51	190	70
Wandy Peralta L 2020 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	21.9%	9.6%	2.8%	.253	3.70	21.1%	11.3%	161	-0.33	2.69	725	70
Scott Alexander L 2018 · 3.30 FIP	29	SU	3.30	20.9%	9.3%	1.4%	.290	4.64	13.3%	5.0%	45	+1.34	2.90	426	69
Zach Phillips L 2016 · 3.01 FIP	29	SU	3.01	27.4%	11.9%	1.3%	.370	3.20	19.2%	10.6%	86	+0.19	2.33	202	69
Kevin Siegrist L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	28	SU	3.95	25.0%	11.6%	2.7%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	2.72	176	69
Arturo Barradas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	29	SU	3.42	18.1%	7.0%	1.8%	.288	3.24	16.1%	9.5%	34	-0.18	3.24	163	69
Antonio Bastardo L 2015 · 3.10 FIP	29	SU	3.10	26.8%	10.0%	1.8%	.238	5.27	22.6%	11.3%	88	+2.17	3.10	145	69
Boone Logan L 2015 · 2.96 FIP	30	SU	2.96	26.2%	9.5%	1.6%	.352	3.05	29.7%	20.6%	78	+0.09	2.58	113	68
Edward Paredes L 2016 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	24.1%	13.0%	1.4%	.225	3.55	23.7%	14.0%	86	+0.08	2.36	130	68
Kyle Regnault L 2018 · 3.82 FIP	29	SU	3.82	27.6%	9.7%	3.3%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	204	68
Matt Whitehouse L 2019 · 4.07 FIP	28	SW	4.07	20.1%	10.9%	2.3%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	353	68
Josh Osich L 2018 · 3.73 FIP	29	SU	3.73	17.3%	9.5%	1.6%	.377	5.05	22.2%	15.9%	115	+1.32	3.41	315	67
Jeff Ibarra L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	18.1%	7.0%	2.1%	.342	2.85	20.6%	17.2%	29	-0.79	2.85	101	67
Jorge Ibarra L 2017 · 3.09 FIP	29	SU	3.09	19.3%	6.5%	1.4%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	2.55	146	67
Mike Dunn L 2015 · 3.75 FIP	30	SU	3.75	27.7%	11.9%	2.7%	.294	4.21	22.5%	10.9%	110	+0.46	3.71	181	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	56	21.9%	8.2%	1.12	4.22
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Derek Law ('24)	1.5	60	21.5%	8.9%	0.88	3.47
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86