Brock Burke
P
Cincinnati Reds
+0.5
WAR
Age 29
LHP
6'4" / 210 lbs
MLB
Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2026
peak 0.5 · 2026
ERA4.26
FIP4.22
xFIP3.00
SIERA2.86
K%21.6%
BB%7.1%
K-BB%14.5%
IP52
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2026
K†5555
FB+2.5 (49%)
CH (22%)
SI (14%)
SL (29%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | Princeton Rays | 11 | 11 | 53 | 219 | 35 | 11 | 3 | 10.9% | 6.3% | 1.9% | 3.42 | 4.03 | +0.5 |
| 2017 | 20 | A+ | Charlotte Stone Crabs | 23 | 23 | 124 | 511 | 108 | 36 | 6 | 15.9% | 8.2% | 1.6% | 2.98 | 3.65 | +2.3 |
| 2018 | 21 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 25 | 22 | 137 | 582 | 158 | 44 | 6 | 21.4% | 8.6% | 1.4% | 3.08 | 3.17 | +3.3 |
| 2019 | 22 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 19 | 19 | 89 | 380 | 78 | 29 | 9 | 17.7% | 8.0% | 2.6% | 4.96 | 4.04 | +1.2 |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 21 | 20 | 78 | 336 | 97 | 31 | 13 | 25.4% | 9.7% | 4.5% | 5.68 | 4.65 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 52 | 0 | 82 | 328 | 90 | 23 | 9 | 27.4% | 7.0% | 2.7% | 1.97 | 3.16 | +1.9 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 53 | 0 | 60 | 250 | 52 | 5 | 13 | 20.8% | 2.0% | 4.1% | 4.37 | 3.86 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 52 | 3 | 56 | 257 | 62 | 26 | 5 | 22.4% | 10.6% | 2.1% | 5.43 | 3.70 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 69 | 1 | 62 | 257 | 52 | 14 | 8 | 20.2% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 3.36 | 3.87 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 9 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 10 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.08 | — | — |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | CIN | 44 | — | 44 | 185 | 42 | 13 | 6 | 22.6% | 7.0% | 3.0% | 4.23 | 4.14 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 29 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 52 | 219 | 52 | 16 | 6 | 23.7% | 7.3% | 2.6% | 3.73 | 3.48 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 50 | — | 50 | 213 | 49 | 16 | 6 | 23.1% | 7.3% | 2.9% | 4.06 | 4.06 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 46 | 15 | 6 | 22.5% | 7.4% | 3.0% | 4.12 | 4.16 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 43 | 15 | 6 | 21.8% | 7.6% | 3.1% | 4.21 | 4.28 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 45 | — | 45 | 189 | 40 | 15 | 6 | 21.2% | 7.8% | 3.2% | 4.33 | 4.40 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 37 | 14 | 6 | 20.5% | 8.0% | 3.3% | 4.46 | 4.54 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | CIN | 40 | — | 40 | 169 | 33 | 14 | 6 | 19.7% | 8.2% | 3.4% | 4.60 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | CIN | 38 | — | 38 | 158 | 30 | 13 | 6 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 3.5% | 4.76 | 4.86 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 334 | 99 | 749 | 3154 | 644 | 241 | 78 | 20.4% | 7.6% | 2.5% | 3.74 | 3.71 | +13.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 89 | 26 | 200 | 843 | 172 | 64 | 21 | 20.4% | 7.6% | 2.5% | 3.74 | 3.71 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brock Burke (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.14 | 22.6% | 7.0% | 3.0% | — | 4.16 | 22.5% | 15.0% | 146 | +0.02 | — | — | — |
| Brandon Mann L 2029 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 3.99 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.74 | 3.59 | 190 | 77 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.68 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 175 | 76 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.66 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 2.2% | .342 | 2.89 | 20.6% | 17.2% | 29 | -0.77 | 2.89 | 101 | 75 |
| Arturo Barradas L 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.42 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .288 | 3.24 | 16.1% | 9.5% | 34 | -0.18 | 3.24 | 163 | 74 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 74 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2025 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.61 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.36 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.25 | 3.36 | 153 | 74 |
| Franklin Morales L 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.33 | 15.9% | 5.4% | 1.6% | .271 | 4.03 | 15.0% | 7.0% | 39 | +0.70 | 3.33 | 101 | 74 |
| David Huff L 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.48 | 17.1% | 3.8% | 2.5% | .271 | 4.07 | 19.5% | 14.6% | 52 | +0.59 | 3.48 | 158 | 73 |
| Josh Smoker L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.62 | 22.1% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .318 | 6.63 | 14.2% | 3.4% | 14 | +3.01 | 2.70 | 230 | 72 |
| Jorge Ibarra L 2026 · 3.05 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.05 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 1.4% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 146 | 72 |
| Kyle Hunter L 2025 · 4.50 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.50 | 14.0% | 6.1% | 3.3% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 188 | 71 |
| Colt Hynes L 2027 · 3.42 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.42 | 16.2% | 8.4% | 1.1% | .290 | 3.68 | 17.9% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.26 | 3.42 | 152 | 71 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 126 | 70 |
| Kraig Sitton L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.89 | 14.7% | 6.1% | 2.3% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 166 | 70 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.43 | 18.9% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .300 | 3.46 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 112 | -0.97 | 2.83 | 223 | 70 |
| Jimmy Reyes L 2025 · 4.88 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.88 | 13.8% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 200 | 70 |
| Brian Flynn L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.49 | 17.7% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 277 | 69 |
| Scott Alexander L 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.29 | 20.9% | 9.3% | 1.4% | .290 | 4.54 | 13.3% | 5.0% | 45 | +1.25 | 2.82 | 414 | 69 |
| Marlon Arias L 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .330 | 3.73 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.57 | 3.73 | 154 | 69 |
| Demetrio Gutierrez L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.68 | 17.1% | 5.3% | 2.5% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 322 | 69 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Arb-3
MLB Debut 2019
Service 5.262 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2026
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $2M | $2M | +$0.0M | ||