Brock Burke
P
Cincinnati Reds
Age 29
LHP
6'4" / 210 lbs
MLB
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION45 act + 15 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 94103vR 112
ERA3.99
FIP3.95
K%21.1%
BB%8.5%
K-BB%12.6%
ROS IP15
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p7596.3
Whiff%
p6928.3%
K%
p3720.3%
xwOBA vs
p360.328
FB+2.5 (52%)
CH (17%)
SI (12%)
SL (31%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | Princeton Rays | 11 | 11 | 53 | 219 | 35 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 4.8 | 10.9% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 3.42 | 4.03 | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | Princeton Rays | 11 | 11 | 53 | 219 | 35 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 4.8 | 16.0% | 5.0% | 11.0% | 1.4% | 3.42 | 3.14 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 124 | 511 | 108 | 36 | 6 | 100% | 5.4 | 15.9% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 1.8% | 2.98 | 3.76 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 124 | 511 | 108 | 36 | 6 | 100% | 5.4 | 21.1% | 7.0% | 14.1% | 1.2% | 2.98 | 2.86 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 22 | 137 | 582 | 158 | 44 | 6 | 88% | 5.5 | 21.4% | 8.6% | 12.8% | 1.6% | 3.08 | 3.27 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 22 | 137 | 582 | 158 | 44 | 6 | 88% | 5.5 | 27.1% | 7.6% | 19.6% | 1.0% | 3.08 | 2.33 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 5 levels | 19 | 19 | 89 | 380 | 78 | 29 | 9 | 100% | 4.7 | 17.7% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 2.5% | 4.96 | 3.98 | +1.2 |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 5 levels | 19 | 19 | 89 | 380 | 78 | 29 | 9 | 100% | 4.7 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 12.9% | 2.4% | 4.96 | 3.64 | +1.6 |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 21 | 20 | 78 | 336 | 97 | 31 | 13 | 95% | 3.7 | 25.4% | 9.7% | 15.7% | 4.6% | 5.68 | 4.73 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 21 | 20 | 78 | 336 | 97 | 31 | 13 | 95% | 3.7 | 28.9% | 9.2% | 19.6% | 3.9% | 5.68 | 3.98 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 52 | 0 | 82 | 328 | 90 | 23 | 9 | 0% | 1.6 | 27.4% | 7.0% | 20.4% | 2.7% | 1.97 | 3.14 | +1.8 |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 52 | 0 | 82 | 328 | 90 | 23 | 9 | 0% | 1.6 | 27.4% | 7.0% | 20.4% | 2.7% | 1.97 | 3.17 | +1.8 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 53 | 0 | 60 | 250 | 52 | 5 | 13 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.8% | 2.0% | 18.8% | 5.1% | 4.37 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 53 | 0 | 60 | 250 | 52 | 5 | 13 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.8% | 2.0% | 18.8% | 5.2% | 4.37 | 4.44 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 52 | 3 | 56 | 257 | 62 | 26 | 5 | 6% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 2.2% | 5.43 | 3.75 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 52 | 3 | 56 | 257 | 62 | 26 | 5 | 6% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 10.1% | 14.0% | 1.9% | 5.43 | 3.44 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 69 | 1 | 62 | 257 | 52 | 14 | 8 | 1% | 0.9 | 20.2% | 5.4% | 14.8% | 3.2% | 3.36 | 3.85 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 69 | 1 | 62 | 257 | 52 | 14 | 8 | 1% | 0.9 | 20.2% | 5.4% | 14.8% | 3.1% | 3.36 | 3.78 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 47 | 0 | 45 | 192 | 39 | 23 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.3% | 12.0% | 8.3% | 2.1% | 3.02 | 4.05 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | CIN | 15 | 0 | 15 | 64 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 8.5% | 12.6% | 2.8% | 3.99 | 3.95 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | CIN | 14 | 0 | 15 | 63 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 8.5% | 12.6% | 2.8% | 3.99 | 3.95 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 60 | 256 | 53 | 28 | 6 | — | — | 20.5% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 2.3% | 3.27 | 4.02 | +0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 60 | 253 | 53 | 28 | 6 | — | — | 20.8% | 11.3% | 9.5% | 2.3% | 3.27 | 4.03 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 54 | 0 | 56 | 238 | 49 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 8.8% | 11.7% | 3.0% | 4.46 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 50 | 0 | 52 | 222 | 44 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.8% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 46 | 0 | 49 | 205 | 39 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.0% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 3.5% | 4.86 | 5.01 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 50 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 46 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.5% | 8.8% | 11.7% | 3.0% | 4.46 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 42 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.8% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 37 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.0% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 3.5% | 4.86 | 5.01 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 418 | 8 | 474 | 1997 | 427 | 154 | 66 | 2% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 7.7% | 13.7% | 3.3% | 4.04 | 4.09 | +7.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 176 | 3 | 200 | 843 | 180 | 65 | 28 | 2% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 7.7% | 13.7% | 3.3% | 4.04 | 4.09 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 372 | 99 | 785 | 3312 | 673 | 261 | 87 | 27% | 2.1 | 20.3% | 7.9% | 12.4% | 2.6% | 3.73 | 3.83 | +14.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 95 | 25 | 200 | 844 | 171 | 66 | 22 | 27% | 2.1 | 20.3% | 7.9% | 12.4% | 2.6% | 3.73 | 3.83 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brock Burke (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.18 | 21.8% | 6.7% | 3.1% | — | 4.75 | 19.8% | 10.6% | 157 | +0.57 | — | — | — |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.83 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 175 | 76 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2025 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 76 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.06 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.73 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.33 | 3.73 | 108 | 72 |
| Josh Smoker L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.84 | 22.1% | 8.4% | 2.8% | .318 | 6.37 | 14.2% | 3.4% | 14 | +2.53 | 2.66 | 230 | 70 |
| Matt Whitehouse L 2025 · 4.02 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.02 | 20.1% | 10.9% | 2.2% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 353 | 69 |
| Arturo Barradas L 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.45 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .288 | 3.17 | 16.1% | 9.5% | 34 | -0.28 | 3.17 | 163 | 69 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.73 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 2.3% | .342 | 2.95 | 20.6% | 17.2% | 29 | -0.78 | 2.95 | 101 | 68 |
| Jimmy Reyes L 2025 · 4.73 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.73 | 13.8% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 200 | 68 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.82 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 4.0% | .253 | 4.48 | 23.7% | 12.6% | 46 | -0.34 | 3.80 | 172 | 67 |
| Colt Hynes L 2027 · 3.44 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.44 | 16.2% | 8.4% | 1.2% | .290 | 3.67 | 17.9% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.23 | 3.44 | 152 | 67 |
| Kyle Hunter L 2025 · 4.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.47 | 14.0% | 6.1% | 3.2% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.44 | 188 | 67 |
| Kelvin Marte L 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.87 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 3.1% | .300 | 5.18 | 12.0% | 1.2% | 71 | +0.31 | 3.50 | 360 | 67 |
| Justin Marks L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.84 | 18.7% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 324 | 66 |
| Jorge Ibarra L 2026 · 3.02 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.02 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 1.3% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.57 | 146 | 66 |
| David Huff L 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.63 | 17.1% | 3.8% | 2.7% | .271 | 4.00 | 19.5% | 14.6% | 52 | +0.37 | 3.63 | 158 | 66 |
| Edward Paredes L 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.49 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .225 | 3.53 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 86 | +0.04 | 2.29 | 130 | 66 |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.25 | 26.7% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .241 | 3.03 | 28.6% | 15.8% | 115 | -0.22 | 2.33 | 455 | 66 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.56 | 18.9% | 8.0% | 3.7% | .300 | 3.44 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 112 | -1.12 | 2.81 | 223 | 65 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.60 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 2.9% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 171 | 65 |
| Josh Osich L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.73 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.6% | .377 | 4.98 | 22.2% | 15.9% | 115 | +1.25 | 3.47 | 315 | 65 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 54 | 20.4% | 8.5% | 1.24 | 4.53 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Jarlín García ('22) | 5 | 61 | 19.6% | 7.8% | 1.33 | 3.79 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |