Gordon Graceffo — OGILVIE

Gordon Graceffo P St. Louis Cardinals

Age 26 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION75 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113105vR 97

ERA4.17

FIP4.11

K%18.6%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%9.8%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 81 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6295.4

Whiff%

p1219.9%

p2318.3%

xwOBA vs

p370.327

FB+2.6 (45%)

SL+1.8 (32%)

SI (7%)

CU (9%)

CH (13%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	11	1	26	116	37	9	1	9%	2.4	23.6%	9.2%	14.4%	1.2%	1.73	2.93	—
2021	21	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	11	1	26	116	37	9	1	9%	2.4	31.9%	7.8%	24.1%	0.9%	1.73	1.79	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	139	544	139	28	17	100%	5.4	20.3%	5.7%	14.6%	3.5%	2.97	4.03	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	139	544	139	28	17	100%	5.4	25.6%	5.1%	20.4%	3.1%	2.97	3.29	—
2023	23	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	21	18	86	387	81	45	9	86%	4.1	17.4%	10.5%	6.9%	2.7%	4.92	4.43	—
2023	23	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	21	18	86	387	81	45	9	86%	4.1	17.4%	10.5%	6.9%	2.7%	4.92	4.43	—
2023	23	AAA RAW	Memphis Redbirds	21	18	86	387	81	45	9	86%	4.1	20.9%	11.6%	9.3%	2.3%	4.92	4.15	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	27	138	614	113	52	21	93%	4.7	15.2%	7.7%	7.5%	3.7%	4.84	4.82	+0.1
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	27	138	614	113	52	21	93%	4.7	15.2%	7.7%	7.5%	3.7%	4.84	4.82	+0.1
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	27	138	614	113	52	21	93%	4.7	18.4%	8.5%	9.9%	3.4%	4.84	4.57	+0.5
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	4	88	383	85	26	7	8%	1.8	20.2%	6.4%	13.7%	2.2%	4.99	3.43	+1.2
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	4	88	383	85	26	7	8%	1.8	20.2%	6.4%	13.7%	2.2%	4.99	3.43	+1.2
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	4	88	383	85	26	7	8%	1.8	22.2%	6.8%	15.4%	1.8%	4.99	3.09	+1.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			85	2	125	519	100	46	8	2%	1.5	19.3%	8.9%	10.4%	1.5%	4.04	3.44	+1.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	58	1	75	300	55	32	5	2%	1.3	18.3%	10.5%	7.8%	1.8%	2.63	3.89	+0.6
YTD	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	58	1	75	300	55	32	5	2%	1.3	18.3%	10.5%	7.8%	1.8%	2.63	3.89	+0.6
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AAA RAW	STL	1	0	1	5	1	1	0	0%	1.3	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.94	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	STL	57	1	74	295	54	31	5	2%	1.3	18.3%	10.5%	7.8%	1.7%	2.68	3.82	+0.6
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	STL	57	1	74	295	54	31	5	2%	1.3	18.3%	10.5%	7.8%	1.7%	2.68	3.82	+0.6
ROS	26	MLB MLE	STL	6	0	6	25	5	2	1	0%	1.0	18.6%	8.7%	9.8%	2.7%	4.17	4.11	+0.0
ROS	26	MLB CTX	STL	6	0	6	25	5	2	1	0%	1.0	18.6%	8.7%	9.8%	2.7%	4.17	4.11	+0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	STL	—	—	81	325	60	34	6	—	—	18.4%	10.5%	7.8%	1.7%	2.74	3.90	+0.8
FULL	26	MLB A+C	STL	—	—	80	337	60	34	6	—	—	17.7%	10.1%	7.5%	1.7%	2.79	3.81	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	STL	161	0	169	714	133	63	18	0%	1.1	18.6%	8.8%	9.9%	2.5%	4.37	4.36	+0.4
2028	28	MLB MLE	STL	161	0	169	714	132	64	18	0%	1.1	18.5%	8.9%	9.6%	2.6%	4.42	4.45	+0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	STL	154	0	162	682	122	62	18	0%	1.0	17.9%	9.2%	8.8%	2.7%	4.53	4.61	-0.1
2030	30	MLB MLE	STL	145	0	152	641	111	61	19	0%	1.0	17.2%	9.4%	7.8%	2.9%	4.70	4.82	-0.5
2027	27	MLB CTX	STL	153	0	161	680	127	60	17	0%	1.1	18.6%	8.8%	9.9%	2.5%	4.37	4.36	+0.4
2028	28	MLB CTX	STL	153	0	161	680	126	61	17	0%	1.1	18.5%	8.9%	9.6%	2.6%	4.42	4.45	+0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	STL	147	0	154	650	117	59	18	0%	1.0	17.9%	9.2%	8.8%	2.7%	4.53	4.61	-0.1
2030	30	MLB CTX	STL	137	0	144	608	105	57	18	0%	1.1	17.2%	9.4%	7.8%	2.9%	4.70	4.82	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		680	2	750	3159	578	285	78	0%	1.1	18.3%	9.0%	9.3%	2.5%	4.42	4.05	+4.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		181	1	200	842	154	76	21	0%	1.1	18.3%	9.0%	9.3%	2.5%	4.42	4.05	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		195	77	553	2344	431	186	68	39%	2.8	18.4%	7.9%	10.5%	2.9%	3.96	4.13	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		71	28	200	848	156	67	24	39%	2.8	18.4%	7.9%	10.5%	2.9%	3.96	4.13	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gordon Graceffo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.33	19.0%	7.2%	2.8%	—	4.47	18.4%	9.4%	500	+0.14	—	—	—
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	81
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	81
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	81
Calvin Drummond R 2016 · 3.55 FIP	26	SW	3.55	16.9%	11.1%	0.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	112	81
Jose Samayoa R 2016 · 3.44 FIP	26	SW	3.44	16.6%	9.9%	0.9%	.286	3.79	17.3%	9.4%	226	+0.35	3.44	262	80
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	299	80
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	80
Layne Somsen R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	19.5%	12.5%	1.3%	.265	4.00	19.9%	6.7%	92	+0.26	3.66	154	80
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	79
R.J. Alaniz R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	26	SU	3.91	20.7%	8.9%	2.6%	.318	3.28	23.8%	15.0%	96	-0.63	2.45	362	79
Esmil Rogers R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	29	SW	3.51	18.5%	8.9%	1.6%	.348	2.86	21.7%	17.9%	40	-0.65	2.86	199	78
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	78
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	78
Joe Navilhon R 2019 · 3.23 FIP	26	SU	3.23	20.5%	7.7%	1.6%	.322	4.28	23.4%	16.7%	99	+1.05	2.25	273	78
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	77
Anthony Bass R 2015 · 3.56 FIP	27	SU	3.56	16.5%	7.0%	1.8%	.300	3.43	21.6%	14.2%	123	-0.13	2.93	432	77
Stephen Kohlscheen R 2015 · 3.83 FIP	26	SU	3.83	15.6%	8.1%	1.9%	.311	3.98	22.8%	15.0%	90	+0.15	2.52	167	77
Thomas Balboni Jr. R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	17.5%	10.9%	1.8%	.331	3.47	28.1%	14.3%	79	-0.52	2.99	122	77
Spencer Stockton R 2022 · 4.18 FIP	26	SU	4.18	20.2%	10.3%	2.7%	.276	5.46	18.7%	6.2%	63	+1.28	1.93	233	77
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.1	164	18.3%	8.7%	1.04	4.48
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58