Gordon Graceffo
P
St. Louis Cardinals
Age 26
RHP
6'4" / 220 lbs
MLB
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION48 act + 121 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127118vR 109
ERA4.36
FIP4.34
K%16.4%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%7.4%
ROS IP121
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 169 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6595.6
Whiff%
p1015.6%
K%
p1013.2%
xwOBA vs
p100.364
FB+2.6 (47%)
SL+1.8 (28%)
SI (7%)
CU (15%)
CH (9%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 11 | 1 | 26 | 116 | 37 | 9 | 1 | 9% | 2.4 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 14.4% | 1.3% | 1.73 | 2.99 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 11 | 1 | 26 | 116 | 37 | 9 | 1 | 9% | 2.4 | 31.9% | 7.8% | 24.1% | 0.9% | 1.73 | 1.79 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 139 | 544 | 139 | 28 | 17 | 100% | 5.4 | 20.3% | 5.7% | 14.6% | 3.3% | 2.97 | 3.91 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 139 | 544 | 139 | 28 | 17 | 100% | 5.4 | 25.6% | 5.1% | 20.4% | 3.1% | 2.97 | 3.29 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 21 | 18 | 86 | 387 | 81 | 45 | 9 | 86% | 4.1 | 18.4% | 12.2% | 6.2% | 2.8% | 4.92 | 4.63 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 21 | 18 | 86 | 387 | 81 | 45 | 9 | 86% | 4.1 | 20.9% | 11.6% | 9.3% | 2.3% | 4.92 | 4.15 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 27 | 138 | 614 | 113 | 52 | 21 | 93% | 4.7 | 16.2% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 3.6% | 4.84 | 4.87 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 27 | 138 | 614 | 113 | 52 | 21 | 93% | 4.7 | 18.4% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 4.84 | 4.57 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 4 | 88 | 383 | 85 | 26 | 7 | 8% | 1.8 | 20.8% | 7.0% | 13.8% | 2.5% | 4.99 | 3.58 | +1.6 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 4 | 88 | 383 | 85 | 26 | 7 | 8% | 1.8 | 22.2% | 6.8% | 15.4% | 1.8% | 4.99 | 3.09 | +2.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 40 | 0 | 48 | 187 | 25 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 13.2% | 11.0% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.83 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | STL | 116 | 0 | 121 | 512 | 84 | 46 | 14 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.4% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 2.7% | 4.36 | 4.34 | +1.5 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | STL | 115 | 0 | 121 | 511 | 84 | 46 | 14 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.4% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 2.7% | 4.36 | 4.34 | +1.5 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | STL | — | — | 169 | 699 | 109 | 67 | 18 | — | — | 15.6% | 9.6% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 3.93 | 4.41 | +2.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | STL | — | — | 168 | 708 | 109 | 67 | 18 | — | — | 15.4% | 9.5% | 5.9% | 2.5% | 3.96 | 4.38 | +2.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | STL | 161 | 0 | 169 | 714 | 126 | 64 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.6% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 4.64 | 4.65 | +1.5 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | STL | 161 | 0 | 169 | 714 | 128 | 64 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.8% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.66 | 4.70 | +1.4 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | STL | 153 | 0 | 161 | 680 | 120 | 61 | 19 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.6% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 4.64 | 4.65 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | STL | 153 | 0 | 161 | 680 | 121 | 61 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.8% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.66 | 4.70 | +1.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 489 | 1 | 540 | 2276 | 395 | 203 | 59 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.4% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 2.6% | 4.57 | 4.20 | +7.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 181 | 0 | 200 | 843 | 146 | 75 | 22 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.4% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 2.6% | 4.57 | 4.20 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 177 | 76 | 525 | 2231 | 412 | 191 | 66 | 43% | 3.0 | 18.5% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.05 | 4.25 | +7.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 67 | 29 | 200 | 850 | 157 | 73 | 25 | 43% | 3.0 | 18.5% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.05 | 4.25 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Gordon Graceffo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.42 | 19.6% | 7.9% | 2.9% | — | 4.67 | 17.8% | 8.8% | 338 | +0.25 | — | — | — |
| Jose Samayoa R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.56 | 16.6% | 9.9% | 1.1% | .286 | 4.12 | 17.3% | 9.4% | 226 | +0.56 | 3.56 | 262 | 82 |
| Edwin Quirarte R 2028 · 3.59 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.59 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 2.0% | .311 | 3.45 | 12.7% | 4.9% | 83 | -0.14 | 3.21 | 157 | 80 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 16.7% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .243 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 167 | 80 |
| Calvin Drummond R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.51 | 16.9% | 11.1% | 0.8% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 112 | 80 |
| Jorge Reyes R 2027 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.25 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 4.4% | .307 | 3.44 | 14.2% | 6.2% | 129 | -1.81 | 3.32 | 227 | 79 |
| Josh Roeder R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 79 |
| Taylor Grover R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.89 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .320 | 4.92 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | +0.03 | 3.63 | 239 | 78 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2027 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 78 |
| Ranfi Casimiro R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.48 | 16.4% | 10.7% | 2.6% | .285 | 4.76 | 8.4% | -0.2% | 16 | +0.28 | 3.84 | 420 | 78 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2029 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 77 |
| Layne Somsen R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.72 | 19.5% | 12.5% | 1.3% | .265 | 4.04 | 19.9% | 6.7% | 92 | +0.32 | 3.67 | 154 | 77 |
| Derek Gordon R 2025 · 4.72 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.72 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.9% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 146 | 77 |
| Grant Black R 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 77 |
| Fernando Cruz R 2025 · 5.41 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.41 | 15.6% | 12.2% | 3.8% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.52 | 356 | 76 |
| Noah Bremer R 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.24 | 18.0% | 9.4% | 2.7% | .292 | 5.88 | 13.1% | 1.2% | 46 | +1.64 | 3.14 | 271 | 76 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2029 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.73 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.45 | 11.2% | 7.2% | 74 | -0.28 | 4.45 | 135 | 76 |
| Felipe Gonzalez R 2025 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.71 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .337 | 3.27 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 50 | -1.44 | 3.27 | 339 | 76 |
| Brad Allen R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.22 | 14.0% | 12.6% | 1.3% | .315 | 6.07 | 14.7% | 1.5% | 87 | +1.85 | 4.22 | 149 | 76 |
| Stephen Kohlscheen R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.95 | 15.6% | 8.1% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.02 | 22.8% | 15.0% | 90 | +0.07 | 2.39 | 167 | 75 |
| Chad Jenkins R 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.62 | 13.1% | 6.5% | 1.5% | .296 | 3.88 | 12.5% | 0.4% | 30 | +0.26 | 3.62 | 123 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 169 | 18.4% | 8.6% | 1.11 | 4.58 |
| Edinson Volquez ('17) | 3 | 161 | 17.9% | 9.6% | 0.88 | 4.39 |
| Miguel González ('17) | 3 | 145 | 16.2% | 7.5% | 1.18 | 4.44 |
| Andrew Cashner ('19) | 5 | 157 | 16.7% | 9.2% | 1.11 | 4.54 |
| Jaime García ('18) | 4 | 135 | 19.6% | 8.5% | 1.05 | 4.23 |
| R.A. Dickey ('17) | 3 | 191 | 16.0% | 7.9% | 1.24 | 4.19 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |