Gordon Graceffo

P St. Louis Cardinals

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs MLB peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	29	27	138	4.84	4.57	18.4%	8.5%	1.3	K 15.8% · BB 7.7% · FIP 4.77
2025	25	MIX2 levels	50	4	88	4.99	3.09	22.2%	6.8%	1.6	K 20.5% · BB 6.4% · FIP 3.40
2026	26	MIX2 levels	63	1	82	2.62	3.57	19.3%	10.3%	1.0	K 19.3% · BB 10.1% · FIP 3.66
2027PROJ	27	MLBSTL	52	0	55	4.23	4.33	19.7%	8.6%	0.1
2028PROJ95% MLB	28	MLBSTL	34	0	36	4.34	4.41	19.6%	8.8%	0.1
2029PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBSTL	24	0	25	4.48	4.57	19.0%	9.0%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo61

xwOBA vs36

K%30

Form1.23 ERA (proj 4.23) · K 32.8% (proj 19.7%) · BB 9.4% (proj 8.6%) ▲▲ last 60d · 15 IP through Oct 27

CompsRoberto Gómez (age 27) · Jorge Reyes (age 27) · Coleman Huntley III (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 99

ERA4.23

FIP4.33

K%19.7%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%11.1%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6195.3

Whiff%

p2121.2%

p3019.3%

xwOBA vs

p360.328

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	11	1	26	116	37	9	1	9%	2.4	23.6%	9.2%	14.4%	1.2%	1.73	2.93	—
2021	21	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	11	1	26	116	37	9	1	9%	2.4	31.9%	7.8%	24.1%	0.9%	1.73	1.79	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	139	544	139	28	17	100%	5.4	20.3%	5.7%	14.6%	3.5%	2.97	4.03	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	139	544	139	28	17	100%	5.4	25.6%	5.1%	20.4%	3.1%	2.97	3.29	—
2023	23	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	21	18	86	387	81	45	9	86%	4.1	18.0%	10.5%	7.5%	2.7%	4.92	4.38	—
2023	23	AAA RAW	Memphis Redbirds	21	18	86	387	81	45	9	86%	4.1	20.9%	11.6%	9.3%	2.3%	4.92	4.15	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	27	138	614	113	52	21	93%	4.7	15.8%	7.7%	8.1%	3.7%	4.84	4.77	+1.0
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	27	138	614	113	52	21	93%	4.7	15.8%	7.7%	8.1%	3.7%	4.84	4.77	+1.0
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	27	138	614	113	52	21	93%	4.7	18.4%	8.5%	9.9%	3.4%	4.84	4.57	+1.3
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	4	88	383	85	26	7	8%	1.8	20.5%	6.4%	14.1%	2.2%	4.99	3.40	+1.2
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	4	88	383	85	26	7	8%	1.8	20.5%	6.4%	14.1%	2.2%	4.99	3.40	+1.2
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	4	88	383	85	26	7	8%	1.8	22.2%	6.8%	15.4%	1.8%	4.99	3.09	+1.6
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	1	82	331	64	34	5	2%	1.3	19.3%	10.1%	9.2%	1.6%	2.62	3.66	+0.9
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	1	82	331	64	34	5	2%	1.3	19.3%	10.1%	9.2%	1.6%	2.62	3.66	+0.9
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	63	1	82	331	64	34	5	2%	1.3	19.3%	10.3%	9.1%	1.5%	2.62	3.57	+1.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			90	2	132	550	109	48	8	2%	1.5	19.8%	8.7%	11.1%	1.5%	3.96	3.33	+1.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	STL	52	0	55	232	46	20	6	0%	1.1	19.7%	8.6%	11.1%	2.6%	4.23	4.33	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	STL	36	0	37	158	31	14	4	0%	1.0	19.6%	8.8%	10.8%	2.7%	4.34	4.41	+0.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	STL	25	0	26	110	21	10	3	0%	1.0	19.0%	9.0%	10.0%	2.8%	4.48	4.57	-0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	STL	34	0	36	152	30	13	4	0%	1.1	19.6%	8.8%	10.8%	2.7%	4.34	4.41	+0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	STL	24	0	25	106	20	10	3	0%	1.0	19.0%	9.0%	10.0%	2.8%	4.48	4.57	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		147	2	192	804	158	71	15	1%	1.3	19.7%	8.8%	10.9%	1.9%	4.10	3.57	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		154	2	200	838	165	74	16	1%	1.3	19.7%	8.8%	10.9%	1.9%	4.10	3.57	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		200	77	560	2375	447	188	67	38%	2.8	18.8%	7.9%	10.9%	2.8%	3.94	4.07	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		71	28	200	849	160	67	24	38%	2.8	18.8%	7.9%	10.9%	2.8%	3.94	4.07	+2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 45 IPFIP 3.41 → 3.99 (+0.58)K% 23.7% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.68%	—	×0.860	20.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.84%	—	×0.900	6.16%
HR / BF /BF	2.63%	÷0.869	×1.100	3.33%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 74).

Result: FIP 3.41 → 3.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 130 IPFIP 4.52 → 4.77 (+0.26)K% 18.4% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.35%	—	×0.860	15.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.58%	—	×0.900	7.72%
HR / BF /BF	3.43%	÷1.020	×1.100	3.70%

Result: FIP 4.52 → 4.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 86 IPFIP 4.08 → 4.38 (+0.29)K% 20.9% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.93%	—	×0.860	18.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.63%	—	×0.900	10.47%
HR / BF /BF	2.33%	÷0.955	×1.100	2.68%

Result: FIP 4.08 → 4.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AASpringfield Cardinals · 94 IPFIP 4.37 → 5.09 (+0.72)K% 21.9% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.90%	—	×0.810	17.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.33%	—	×1.100	6.97%
HR / BF /BF	4.22%	÷1.069	×1.200	4.74%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 114).

Result: FIP 4.37 → 5.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Peoria Chiefs · 46 IPFIP 0.87 → 1.62 (+0.75)K% 33.9% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.94%	—	×0.770	26.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.42%	—	×1.150	2.79%
HR / BF /BF	0.61%	÷1.114	×1.250	0.68%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 123).

Result: FIP 0.87 → 1.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 APalm Beach Cardinals · 26 IPFIP 1.86 → 2.93 (+1.07)K% 31.9% → 23.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.90%	—	×0.740	23.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.76%	—	×1.180	9.16%
HR / BF /BF	0.86%	÷0.924	×1.300	1.21%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 1.86 → 2.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gordon Graceffo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.33	19.7%	8.6%	2.6%	—	4.48	19.3%	10.5%	63	+0.15	—	—	—
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	82
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	79
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	79
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	78
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	77
Logan Bawcom R 2016 · 3.73 FIP	27	SW	3.73	16.6%	9.2%	1.6%	.251	4.85	16.0%	6.7%	234	+1.12	3.73	399	75
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	75
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	75
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	75
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	75
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	75
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	74
Noah Davis R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	27	SW	3.88	18.5%	8.4%	2.3%	.368	5.10	18.3%	7.9%	183	+1.22	3.76	596	74
Cory Lidle R 2000 · 4.32 FIP	28	SW	4.32	14.6%	6.1%	3.1%	.313	4.06	14.2%	8.7%	573	-0.26	3.48	1,318	74
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	74
DJ Baxendale R 2018 · 3.49 FIP	27	SW	3.49	18.1%	6.0%	2.1%	.355	5.71	20.0%	8.3%	49	+2.22	2.88	426	74
Wil Jensen R 2024 · 3.48 FIP	26	SW	3.48	22.7%	8.4%	2.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	368	73
Nick Morreale R 2024 · 3.96 FIP	27	SW	3.96	19.0%	8.5%	2.5%	.271	3.72	11.7%	-1.1%	14	-0.24	2.97	280	73
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	73
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	50	19.7%	9.0%	0.79	4.13
Tim Scott ('97)	1.6	52	18.4%	9.7%	0.69	4.13
Jeremy Accardo ('12)	1.4	47	16.8%	9.1%	0.76	4.30
Mark Dewey ('90-'96, 3 WAR*)	1.2	42	18.7%*	9.6%*	0.80*	3.89*
Cesár Ramos ('16)	1.7	58	17.8%	9.3%	0.91	4.02
Mike Perez ('90-'97, 3 WAR*)	1.7	58	18.5%*	8.2%*	0.88*	3.86*
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*