Gordon Graceffo
P
St. Louis Cardinals
+1.1
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'4" / 220 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 1.1 · 2026
ERA5.15
FIP4.39
xFIP5.45
SIERA5.36
K%19.8%
BB%8.3%
K-BB%11.5%
IP101
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.1peak
2026
K†5050
FB+2.6 (49%)
SL+1.8 (24%)
SI (5%)
CU (17%)
CH (10%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 11 | 1 | 26 | 116 | 37 | 9 | 1 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 1.3% | 1.73 | 3.00 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 22 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 26 | 26 | 139 | 544 | 139 | 28 | 17 | 20.3% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.97 | 4.06 | +2.0 |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 21 | 18 | 86 | 387 | 81 | 45 | 9 | 18.4% | 12.2% | 2.7% | 4.92 | 4.56 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 29 | 27 | 138 | 614 | 113 | 52 | 21 | 16.2% | 9.0% | 3.7% | 4.84 | 4.92 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 50 | 4 | 88 | 383 | 85 | 26 | 7 | 20.8% | 7.0% | 2.3% | 4.99 | 3.46 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 7 | 0 | 10 | 37 | 6 | 7 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.93 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | STL | 17 | 17 | 92 | 390 | 82 | 32 | 11 | 21.1% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 5.21 | 4.32 | +1.0 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | STL | — | — | 102 | 427 | 88 | 39 | 11 | 20.7% | 9.2% | 2.6% | 4.80 | 3.91 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | STL | 19 | 19 | 104 | 438 | 90 | 40 | 12 | 20.6% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 4.75 | 4.39 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | STL | 19 | 19 | 104 | 440 | 91 | 40 | 12 | 20.6% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 4.54 | 4.41 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | STL | 19 | 19 | 102 | 430 | 87 | 39 | 12 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 4.50 | 4.48 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | STL | 18 | 18 | 99 | 417 | 82 | 38 | 12 | 19.7% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.53 | 4.56 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | STL | 17 | 17 | 95 | 402 | 77 | 37 | 12 | 19.1% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.61 | 4.67 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | STL | 17 | 17 | 92 | 386 | 71 | 36 | 12 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 4.71 | 4.78 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | STL | 16 | 16 | 87 | 369 | 66 | 35 | 12 | 17.8% | 9.5% | 3.1% | 4.83 | 4.91 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | STL | 15 | 15 | 83 | 350 | 60 | 34 | 11 | 17.1% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 4.96 | 5.05 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | STL | 14 | 14 | 78 | 330 | 61 | 30 | 11 | 18.4% | 9.2% | 3.4% | 4.94 | 4.93 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | STL | 13 | 13 | 73 | 309 | 54 | 29 | 11 | 17.6% | 9.4% | 3.5% | 5.03 | 5.09 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 144 | 76 | 487 | 2081 | 394 | 178 | 63 | 18.9% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 4.10 | 4.24 | +5.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 59 | 31 | 200 | 855 | 162 | 73 | 26 | 18.9% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 4.10 | 4.24 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Gordon Graceffo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.32 | 21.1% | 8.3% | 2.9% | — | 4.43 | 20.5% | 11.5% | 310 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Josh Roeder R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.72 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 175 | 80 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .325 | 4.62 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 279 | +0.82 | 3.80 | 500 | 79 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 79 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.23 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .309 | 3.32 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.91 | 3.32 | 252 | 79 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .331 | 5.58 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.73 | 3.85 | 141 | 78 |
| Zack Wheeler R 2027 · 4.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.89 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 4.2% | .327 | 3.06 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.83 | 2.32 | 1,443 | 78 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.43 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .393 | 4.26 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | -0.17 | 4.26 | 166 | 78 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.74 | 16.6% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .285 | 5.94 | 14.5% | 4.2% | 81 | +1.20 | 4.42 | 239 | 77 |
| Felipe Gonzalez R 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.57 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 3.4% | .337 | 3.27 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 50 | -1.30 | 3.27 | 339 | 77 |
| Ranfi Casimiro R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.66 | 16.4% | 10.7% | 2.9% | .285 | 4.91 | 8.4% | -0.2% | 16 | +0.25 | 3.81 | 420 | 77 |
| Tim Atherton R 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 101 | 77 |
| Hector Noesí R 2028 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 76 |
| Phil Klein R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.88 | 18.1% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .280 | 3.12 | 24.5% | 17.9% | 97 | -0.76 | 3.12 | 178 | 76 |
| Michael Lorenzen R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.78 | 15.7% | 9.3% | 1.5% | .286 | 3.54 | 23.0% | 13.7% | 146 | -0.24 | 3.19 | 1,070 | 76 |
| Casey Sadler R 2025 · 4.90 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.90 | 12.6% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .250 | 3.69 | 15.6% | 9.9% | 144 | -1.21 | 2.21 | 385 | 75 |
| Brooks Hall R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.34 | 14.2% | 6.7% | 2.9% | .284 | 3.45 | 13.6% | 6.2% | 55 | -0.89 | 3.45 | 274 | 75 |
| Murphy Smith R 2027 · 3.17 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.17 | 14.9% | 7.5% | 0.7% | .320 | 4.13 | 15.5% | 7.9% | 217 | +0.96 | 3.17 | 300 | 75 |
| Jesse Hahn R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.29 | 15.8% | 5.9% | 1.4% | .265 | 4.32 | 14.4% | 4.2% | 208 | +1.03 | 2.19 | 404 | 75 |
| Dustin Beggs R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.37 | 15.6% | 7.4% | 3.0% | .329 | 5.09 | 11.3% | 3.6% | 48 | +0.72 | 3.42 | 407 | 75 |
| Kevin McGowan R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.87 | 18.3% | 9.7% | 3.8% | .322 | 5.44 | 15.4% | 4.7% | 64 | +0.57 | 2.94 | 426 | 74 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2024
Service 0.529 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2031
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.1 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.1 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.1 | $9M | +$9M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $3M | +1.0 | $9M | +$6M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $4M | +0.8 | $4M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $5M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $12M | $42M | +$30M | ||