Edwin Díaz
P
Los Angeles Dodgers
Age 32
RHP
6'3" / 165 lbs
MLB
Svc 9.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 1.0 · 2026
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 ROS PROJECTION8 act + 37 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8071vR 62
ERA2.79
FIP2.59
K%38.9%
BB%8.3%
K-BB%30.6%
ROS IP37
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 45 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
SL (47%)
FB-2.3 (52%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 141 | 584 | 145 | 46 | 8 | 100% | 5.2 | 19.8% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 1.9% | 3.82 | 3.56 | — |
| 2015 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 141 | 584 | 145 | 46 | 8 | 100% | 5.2 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 17.0% | 1.4% | 3.82 | 2.76 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 65 | 6 | 92 | 379 | 142 | 20 | 8 | 9% | 1.4 | 34.8% | 5.5% | 29.3% | 2.4% | 2.53 | 2.15 | +3.3 |
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 65 | 6 | 92 | 379 | 142 | 20 | 8 | 9% | 1.4 | 37.5% | 5.3% | 32.2% | 2.1% | 2.53 | 1.80 | +3.7 |
| 2017 | 23 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 66 | 0 | 66 | 278 | 89 | 30 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.0% | 10.8% | 21.2% | 3.8% | 3.27 | 3.84 | +0.6 |
| 2017 | 23 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 66 | 0 | 66 | 278 | 89 | 30 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.0% | 10.8% | 21.2% | 3.6% | 3.27 | 3.74 | +0.7 |
| 2018 | 24 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 73 | 0 | 73 | 280 | 124 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 44.3% | 6.1% | 38.2% | 1.9% | 1.96 | 1.16 | +3.1 |
| 2018 | 24 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 73 | 0 | 73 | 280 | 124 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 44.3% | 6.1% | 38.2% | 1.8% | 1.96 | 1.30 | +3.0 |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | New York Mets | 66 | 0 | 58 | 254 | 99 | 19 | 15 | 0% | 0.9 | 39.0% | 7.5% | 31.5% | 5.9% | 5.59 | 4.01 | +0.4 |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | New York Mets | 66 | 0 | 58 | 254 | 99 | 19 | 15 | 0% | 0.9 | 39.0% | 7.5% | 31.5% | 5.9% | 5.59 | 4.03 | +0.4 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | New York Mets | 26 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 50 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 45.5% | 12.7% | 32.7% | 1.8% | 1.75 | 1.88 | +0.8 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | New York Mets | 26 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 50 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 45.5% | 12.7% | 32.7% | 1.8% | 1.75 | 1.85 | +0.8 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | New York Mets | 63 | 0 | 63 | 257 | 89 | 22 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 34.6% | 8.6% | 26.1% | 1.2% | 3.45 | 1.90 | +2.0 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | New York Mets | 63 | 0 | 63 | 257 | 89 | 22 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 34.6% | 8.6% | 26.1% | 1.2% | 3.45 | 1.94 | +2.0 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | New York Mets | 61 | 0 | 62 | 235 | 118 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 50.2% | 7.2% | 43.0% | 1.3% | 1.31 | 0.48 | +3.0 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | New York Mets | 61 | 0 | 62 | 235 | 118 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 50.2% | 7.2% | 43.0% | 1.3% | 1.31 | 0.75 | +2.8 |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 56 | 0 | 56 | 223 | 87 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 38.9% | 9.3% | 29.6% | 3.3% | 3.40 | 2.78 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 56 | 0 | 56 | 223 | 87 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 39.0% | 9.4% | 29.6% | 3.1% | 3.40 | 2.74 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | New York Mets | 62 | 0 | 66 | 258 | 98 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 38.0% | 8.1% | 29.8% | 1.6% | 1.63 | 1.78 | +2.3 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | New York Mets | 62 | 0 | 66 | 258 | 98 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 38.0% | 8.1% | 29.8% | 1.6% | 1.63 | 1.88 | +2.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 9 | 1 | 8 | 39 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 11% | 0.9 | — | — | — | — | 7.88 | — | — |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | LAD | 35 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 61 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 38.9% | 8.3% | 30.6% | 2.4% | 2.79 | 2.59 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | LAD | 35 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 61 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 38.9% | 8.3% | 30.6% | 2.4% | 2.75 | 2.55 | +0.9 |
| 2026 TOT | 32 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 45 | 195 | 75 | 17 | 5 | — | — | 38.3% | 8.7% | 29.6% | 2.5% | 3.69 | 2.13 | +1.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 32 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 43 | 182 | 75 | 17 | 5 | — | — | 41.2% | 9.4% | 31.8% | 2.6% | 3.83 | 2.23 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | LAD | 56 | 0 | 59 | 248 | 92 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 37.2% | 9.1% | 28.1% | 2.7% | 2.97 | 3.00 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | LAD | 51 | 0 | 53 | 225 | 82 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 36.3% | 9.6% | 26.7% | 3.0% | 3.17 | 3.30 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | LAD | 46 | 0 | 48 | 202 | 71 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 35.4% | 10.2% | 25.2% | 3.4% | 3.45 | 3.64 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 36 | MLB | LAD | 40 | 0 | 42 | 179 | 61 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 34.3% | 10.8% | 23.5% | 3.8% | 3.79 | 4.01 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | LAD | 56 | 0 | 59 | 249 | 93 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 37.2% | 9.1% | 28.1% | 2.7% | 2.93 | 2.96 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | LAD | 50 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 81 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 36.3% | 9.6% | 26.7% | 3.0% | 3.12 | 3.25 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | LAD | 46 | 0 | 48 | 203 | 72 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 35.4% | 10.2% | 25.2% | 3.3% | 3.40 | 3.59 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 36 | MLB | LAD | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 61 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 34.3% | 10.8% | 23.5% | 3.7% | 3.73 | 3.95 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 755 | 0 | 765 | 3149 | 1217 | 274 | 85 | 0% | 1.0 | 38.6% | 8.7% | 29.9% | 2.7% | 3.00 | 2.43 | +26.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 197 | 0 | 200 | 824 | 318 | 72 | 22 | 0% | 1.0 | 38.6% | 8.7% | 29.9% | 2.7% | 3.00 | 2.43 | +7.0 | ||
| Career | — | 574 | 34 | 711 | 2897 | 1015 | 236 | 71 | 6% | 1.2 | 35.0% | 8.2% | 26.9% | 2.5% | 3.04 | 2.52 | +24.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 161 | 10 | 200 | 815 | 285 | 66 | 20 | 6% | 1.2 | 35.0% | 8.2% | 26.9% | 2.5% | 3.04 | 2.52 | +6.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Edwin Díaz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 2.59 | 38.9% | 8.3% | 2.4% | — | 3.29 | 36.4% | 26.8% | 160 | +0.70 | — | — | — |
| C.C. Lee R 2025 · 3.00 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.00 | 34.7% | 9.1% | 3.0% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 121 | 73 |
| Mark Lowe R 2026 · 2.37 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.37 | 28.4% | 5.1% | 1.9% | .302 | 5.17 | 19.2% | 9.9% | 98 | +2.80 | 2.37 | 153 | 69 |
| Adam Ottavino R 2026 · 1.99 FIP | 32 | SU | 1.99 | 36.2% | 10.0% | 1.2% | .224 | 3.22 | 28.6% | 16.3% | 147 | +1.23 | 1.99 | 488 | 69 |
| Josh Lueke R 2024 · 2.50 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.50 | 30.0% | 4.1% | 2.6% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 107 | 68 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 3.13 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.13 | 29.9% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .235 | 4.87 | 20.2% | 8.1% | 85 | +1.74 | 2.00 | 320 | 68 |
| Jay Jackson R 2025 · 2.91 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.91 | 32.4% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .272 | 3.61 | 29.4% | 19.9% | 41 | +0.70 | 2.41 | 261 | 67 |
| Seunghwan Oh R 2028 · 1.81 FIP | 34 | SU | 1.81 | 32.9% | 4.8% | 1.6% | .263 | 3.42 | 24.1% | 19.6% | 146 | +1.61 | 1.81 | 226 | 66 |
| Blake Parker R 2026 · 2.61 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.61 | 33.9% | 6.3% | 2.9% | .228 | 4.31 | 26.6% | 18.8% | 144 | +1.70 | 2.61 | 339 | 64 |
| David Robertson R 2026 · 1.99 FIP | 32 | SU | 1.99 | 37.1% | 6.8% | 2.1% | .204 | 2.77 | 32.2% | 23.4% | 70 | +0.78 | 1.99 | 494 | 63 |
| Shawn Kelley R 2026 · 2.80 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.80 | 35.7% | 4.0% | 4.0% | .254 | 5.02 | 23.1% | 17.9% | 122 | +2.22 | 2.34 | 232 | 62 |
| Ryan Tepera R 2026 · 3.07 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.07 | 34.8% | 13.5% | 2.2% | .341 | 3.31 | 25.2% | 18.0% | 129 | +0.24 | 2.33 | 445 | 62 |
| Michael Tonkin R 2026 · 2.33 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.33 | 32.1% | 7.9% | 1.7% | .321 | 3.74 | 23.5% | 16.0% | 211 | +1.41 | 2.33 | 480 | 62 |
| Blake Wood R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.52 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 210 | 61 |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.60 | 27.7% | 9.0% | 3.1% | .298 | 3.52 | 27.3% | 20.0% | 58 | -0.08 | 3.52 | 316 | 61 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2029 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 61 |
| Craig Kimbrel R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.24 | 40.6% | 15.9% | 2.8% | .286 | 2.81 | 34.6% | 24.9% | 189 | -0.43 | 0.89 | 599 | 60 |
| Pedro Strop R 2026 · 3.03 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.03 | 26.0% | 10.0% | 1.6% | .263 | 3.35 | 25.3% | 16.4% | 101 | +0.32 | 2.48 | 277 | 60 |
| Oliver Drake R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 33.5% | 8.1% | 3.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 317 | 60 |
| Spencer Patton R 2027 · 3.09 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.09 | 27.9% | 8.7% | 2.3% | .305 | 5.10 | 21.4% | 9.7% | 88 | +2.01 | 2.74 | 239 | 60 |
| Daniel Bard R 2029 · 2.70 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.70 | 25.5% | 7.5% | 1.5% | .290 | 3.50 | 25.3% | 12.0% | 175 | +0.80 | 2.48 | 200 | 59 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 49 | 36.4% | 9.6% | 1.18 | 3.22 |
| Andrew Miller ('21) | 6 | 54 | 35.9% | 8.3% | 0.97 | 2.73 |
| Cody Allen ('19) | 5 | 59 | 31.3% | 10.2% | 1.19 | 3.51 |
| Corey Knebel ('22) | 6 | 47 | 32.3% | 11.2% | 0.95 | 3.04 |
| David Robertson ('24) | 7 | 66 | 32.1% | 9.6% | 0.85 | 2.91 |
| Keone Kela ('19) | 5 | 43 | 30.1% | 9.4% | 0.92 | 3.23 |
| Ken Giles ('19) | 5 | 60 | 32.6% | 7.6% | 0.75 | 2.89 |