Edwin Díaz — OGILVIE

Edwin Díaz P Los Angeles Dodgers

+0.7 WAR

INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)

Age 32 RHP 6'3" / 165 lbs MLB Svc 10.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 1.2 · 2027

ERA2.79

FIP3.00

xFIP4.42

SIERA3.70

K%34.6%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%25.9%

IP57

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.2peak

2027

K†8080

FB Velo

p8897.2

Whiff%

p9041.5%

p9038.0%

xwOBA vs

p900.247

SL (47%)

FB-2.3 (52%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	21	AA	Jackson Generals	27	27	141	584	145	46	8	19.8%	8.7%	1.8%	3.82	3.51	+2.9
2016	22	MLB	Seattle Mariners	65	6	92	379	142	20	8	34.8%	5.5%	2.3%	2.53	2.15	+3.2
2017	23	MLB	Seattle Mariners	66	0	66	278	89	30	10	32.0%	10.8%	3.5%	3.27	3.66	+1.0
2018	24	MLB	Seattle Mariners	73	0	73	280	124	17	5	44.3%	6.1%	1.6%	1.96	1.02	+3.4
2019	25	MLB	New York Mets	66	0	58	254	99	19	15	39.0%	7.5%	5.6%	5.59	3.82	+0.7
2020	26	MLB	New York Mets	26	0	26	110	50	14	2	45.5%	12.7%	1.8%	1.75	1.86	+0.9
2021	27	MLB	New York Mets	63	0	63	257	89	22	3	34.6%	8.6%	1.2%	3.45	1.90	+2.2
2022	28	MLB	New York Mets	61	0	62	235	118	17	3	50.2%	7.2%	1.3%	1.31	0.50	+3.1
2024	30	MLB	New York Mets	56	0	56	223	87	21	7	38.9%	9.3%	3.3%	3.40	2.77	+1.4
2025	31	MLB	New York Mets	62	0	66	258	98	21	4	38.0%	8.1%	1.5%	1.63	1.75	+2.4
▸ 2026 Season
2026	32	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	6	0	6	29	10	3	1	—	—	—	6.00	—	—
ROS	32	MLB	LAD	22	—	22	95	35	8	2	37.3%	8.7%	2.5%	2.57	2.77	+0.6
2026 Total	32	MLB	LAD	—	—	28	124	45	11	3	36.7%	9.1%	2.7%	3.29	2.18	+0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	33	MLB	LAD	54	—	54	229	83	21	6	36.3%	9.0%	2.6%	2.84	2.97	+1.2
2028	34	MLB	LAD	52	—	52	217	77	20	6	35.6%	9.2%	2.7%	3.00	3.11	+1.1
2029	35	MLB	LAD	48	—	48	205	71	19	6	34.9%	9.4%	2.8%	3.16	3.26	+0.9
2030	36	MLB	LAD	45	—	45	191	65	18	6	34.1%	9.6%	2.9%	3.32	3.43	+0.8
2031	37	MLB	LAD	42	—	42	177	59	18	5	33.3%	9.9%	3.1%	3.49	3.60	+0.6
2032	38	MLB	LAD	39	—	39	163	53	17	5	32.4%	10.2%	3.2%	3.67	3.79	+0.5
2033	39	MLB	LAD	36	—	36	150	47	16	5	31.6%	10.5%	3.3%	3.85	3.98	+0.4
2034	40	MLB	LAD	33	—	33	138	42	15	5	30.7%	10.8%	3.5%	4.04	4.16	+0.3
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			571	33	709	2887	1011	235	68	35.0%	8.2%	2.3%	3.01	2.46	+22.8
/ 200 IP	—			161	9	200	814	285	66	19	35.0%	8.2%	2.3%	3.01	2.46	+6.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Edwin Díaz (OGILVIE)	—	—	2.77	37.3%	8.7%	2.5%	—	3.11	35.6%	26.5%	154	+0.34	—	—	—
C.C. Lee R 2025 · 3.02 FIP	31	SU	3.02	34.7%	9.1%	3.1%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.58	121	71
Jacob deGrom R 2026 · 2.10 FIP	32	SW	2.10	38.8%	6.7%	2.6%	.288	1.24	43.3%	39.9%	187	-0.86	0.75	1,404	67
Mark Lowe R 2026 · 2.30 FIP	32	SW	2.30	28.4%	5.1%	1.7%	.302	5.15	19.2%	9.9%	98	+2.85	2.30	153	67
Adam Ottavino R 2026 · 2.15 FIP	32	SW	2.15	36.2%	10.0%	1.5%	.224	3.22	28.6%	16.3%	147	+1.07	2.15	488	66
Josh Lueke R 2024 · 2.32 FIP	30	SW	2.32	30.0%	4.1%	2.2%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	2.32	107	66
Wade Davis R 2026 · 3.42 FIP	32	SW	3.42	29.9%	10.0%	2.9%	.235	4.92	20.2%	8.1%	85	+1.50	2.00	320	65
Seunghwan Oh R 2028 · 1.80 FIP	34	SW	1.80	32.9%	4.8%	1.6%	.263	3.68	24.1%	19.6%	146	+1.88	1.80	226	64
Jay Jackson R 2025 · 2.84 FIP	31	SW	2.84	32.4%	9.1%	2.4%	.272	3.57	29.4%	19.9%	41	+0.73	2.37	261	64
Blake Parker R 2026 · 2.41 FIP	32	SW	2.41	33.9%	6.3%	2.5%	.228	4.12	26.6%	18.8%	144	+1.71	2.41	339	61
Michael Tonkin R 2026 · 2.30 FIP	32	SU	2.30	32.1%	7.9%	1.7%	.321	3.73	23.5%	16.0%	211	+1.43	2.30	480	61
Craig Kimbrel R 2026 · 3.38 FIP	32	SU	3.38	40.6%	15.9%	3.1%	.286	2.72	34.6%	24.9%	189	-0.66	1.10	556	61
Ryan Tepera R 2026 · 3.17 FIP	32	SU	3.17	34.8%	13.5%	2.4%	.341	3.18	25.2%	18.0%	129	+0.01	2.27	445	61
David Robertson R 2026 · 2.00 FIP	32	SW	2.00	37.1%	6.8%	2.1%	.204	2.77	32.2%	23.4%	70	+0.77	2.00	494	60
Shawn Kelley R 2026 · 2.74 FIP	32	SW	2.74	35.7%	4.0%	3.9%	.254	5.13	23.1%	17.9%	122	+2.39	2.21	232	60
Daniel Bard R 2029 · 2.86 FIP	35	SU	2.86	25.5%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	3.60	25.3%	12.0%	175	+0.74	2.45	200	60
Ben Heller R 2026 · 3.83 FIP	32	SU	3.83	31.5%	8.8%	4.2%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	246	60
Blake Wood R 2025 · 3.35 FIP	31	SW	3.35	25.3%	9.3%	2.2%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.91	210	59
Santiago Casilla R 2029 · 3.50 FIP	35	SW	3.50	25.4%	8.6%	2.6%	.290	3.90	22.4%	12.7%	161	+0.40	3.50	219	59
Bud Norris R 2026 · 3.39 FIP	32	SW	3.39	27.7%	9.0%	2.7%	.298	3.63	27.3%	20.0%	58	+0.24	3.39	316	59
Spencer Patton R 2027 · 3.03 FIP	33	SU	3.03	27.9%	8.7%	2.1%	.305	5.07	21.4%	9.7%	88	+2.04	2.83	239	58

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2016

Service 10.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$7M	+0.7	$3M	-$4M
Totals		$7M		$3M	-$4M