Edwin Díaz — OGILVIE

Edwin Díaz P Los Angeles Dodgers

Age 32 RHP 6'3" / 165 lbs MLB Svc 9.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 1.3 · 2026 ILInjured 15-Day (D15)

2026 ROS PROJECTION22 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8273vR 65

ERA2.74

FIP2.54

K%35.6%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%27.0%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$35M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF8080

CTRL5050

CMD8080

K†8080

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7596.3

Whiff%

p2922.3%

p6024.1%

xwOBA vs

p100.378

SL (43%)

FB-2.3 (57%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2016

Service 9.703 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$1M	+0.0	$0.0M	-$1M
2027	Ext	$23M	+0.9	$3M	-$17M
2028	Ext	$23M	+0.6	$2M	-$17M
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$47M		$5M	-$35M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$35M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	141	584	145	46	8	100%	5.2	19.8%	8.7%	11.1%	1.8%	3.82	3.49	—
2015	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	141	584	145	46	8	100%	5.2	24.8%	7.9%	17.0%	1.4%	3.82	2.76	—
2016	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	65	6	92	379	142	20	8	9%	1.4	34.8%	5.5%	29.3%	2.3%	2.53	2.12	+2.7
2016	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	65	6	92	379	142	20	8	9%	1.4	37.5%	5.3%	32.2%	2.1%	2.53	1.80	+3.1
2017	23	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	66	0	66	278	89	30	10	0%	1.0	32.0%	10.8%	21.2%	3.7%	3.27	3.79	+0.6
2017	23	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	66	0	66	278	89	30	10	0%	1.0	32.0%	10.8%	21.2%	3.6%	3.27	3.74	+0.6
2018	24	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	73	0	73	280	124	17	5	0%	1.0	44.3%	6.1%	38.2%	1.8%	1.96	1.13	+3.0
2018	24	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	73	0	73	280	124	17	5	0%	1.0	44.3%	6.1%	38.2%	1.8%	1.96	1.30	+2.9
2019	25	MLB MLE	New York Mets	66	0	58	254	99	19	15	0%	0.9	39.0%	7.5%	31.5%	5.9%	5.59	4.01	+0.4
2019	25	MLB RAW	New York Mets	66	0	58	254	99	19	15	0%	0.9	39.0%	7.5%	31.5%	5.9%	5.59	4.03	+0.4
2020	26	MLB MLE	New York Mets	26	0	26	110	50	14	2	0%	1.0	45.5%	12.7%	32.7%	1.8%	1.75	1.87	+0.8
2020	26	MLB RAW	New York Mets	26	0	26	110	50	14	2	0%	1.0	45.5%	12.7%	32.7%	1.8%	1.75	1.85	+0.8
2021	27	MLB MLE	New York Mets	63	0	63	257	89	22	3	0%	1.0	34.6%	8.6%	26.1%	1.2%	3.45	1.90	+2.0
2021	27	MLB RAW	New York Mets	63	0	63	257	89	22	3	0%	1.0	34.6%	8.6%	26.1%	1.2%	3.45	1.94	+2.0
2022	28	MLB MLE	New York Mets	61	0	62	235	118	17	3	0%	1.0	50.2%	7.2%	43.0%	1.3%	1.31	0.48	+3.1
2022	28	MLB RAW	New York Mets	61	0	62	235	118	17	3	0%	1.0	50.2%	7.2%	43.0%	1.3%	1.31	0.75	+2.9
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	0	56	223	87	21	7	0%	1.0	38.9%	9.3%	29.6%	3.2%	3.40	2.77	+1.2
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	0	56	223	87	21	7	0%	1.0	38.9%	9.3%	29.6%	3.2%	3.40	2.77	+1.2
2024	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	56	0	56	223	87	21	7	0%	1.0	39.0%	9.4%	29.6%	3.1%	3.40	2.74	+1.2
2025	31	MLB MLE	New York Mets	62	0	66	258	98	21	4	0%	1.1	38.0%	8.1%	29.8%	1.6%	1.63	1.78	+2.2
2025	31	MLB MLE	New York Mets	62	0	66	258	98	21	4	0%	1.1	38.0%	8.1%	29.8%	1.6%	1.63	1.78	+2.2
2025	31	MLB RAW	New York Mets	62	0	66	258	98	21	4	0%	1.1	38.0%	8.1%	29.8%	1.6%	1.63	1.88	+2.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			536	0	533	2184	858	181	57	0%	1.0	39.3%	8.3%	31.0%	2.6%	3.06	2.29	+14.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	32	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	26	1	22	114	33	14	3	4%	0.8	24.1%	10.1%	13.9%	3.6%	8.59	4.35	+0.1
YTD	32	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	26	1	22	114	33	14	3	4%	0.8	24.1%	10.1%	13.9%	3.6%	8.59	4.35	+0.1
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	32	ROK RAW	LAD	1	1	1	3	2	0	0	100%	1.0	66.7%	0.0%	66.7%	0.0%	0.00	-2.53	—
2026	32	A RAW	LAD	3	0	3	10	5	1	0	0%	1.0	50.0%	10.0%	40.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.14	—
2026	32	AAA RAW	LAD	6	0	4	22	7	5	0	0%	0.7	31.8%	22.7%	9.1%	0.0%	6.23	3.29	—
2026	32	MLB RAW	LAD	16	0	14	79	19	8	3	0%	0.9	24.1%	10.1%	13.9%	3.8%	11.85	4.44	+0.0
SO FAR	32	MLB RAW	LAD	16	0	14	79	19	8	3	0%	0.9	24.1%	10.1%	13.9%	3.8%	11.85	4.44	+0.0
ROS	32	MLB MLE	LAD	4	0	4	16	6	1	0	0%	1.0	35.6%	8.6%	27.0%	2.5%	2.74	2.54	+0.1
ROS	32	MLB CTX	LAD	4	0	4	17	6	1	0	0%	1.0	35.6%	8.6%	27.0%	2.6%	2.80	2.60	+0.1
2026 TOT	32	MLB MLE	LAD	—	—	26	130	39	15	3	—	—	29.8%	11.8%	18.0%	2.6%	7.72	4.08	+0.1
FULL	32	MLB A+C	LAD	—	—	18	74	39	15	3	—	—	52.4%	20.8%	31.6%	4.6%	11.41	3.85	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	LAD	56	0	59	248	87	23	7	0%	1.0	35.0%	9.1%	25.8%	2.9%	3.24	3.27	+0.9
2028	34	MLB MLE	LAD	51	0	53	225	77	22	7	0%	1.0	34.1%	9.6%	24.4%	3.2%	3.44	3.58	+0.6
2027	33	MLB CTX	LAD	56	0	59	249	87	23	8	0%	1.1	35.0%	9.1%	25.8%	3.0%	3.31	3.34	+0.9
2028	34	MLB CTX	LAD	50	0	53	224	76	22	7	0%	1.1	34.1%	9.6%	24.4%	3.3%	3.51	3.65	+0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		646	0	649	2674	1027	227	72	0%	1.0	38.4%	8.5%	29.9%	2.7%	3.12	2.42	+16.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		199	0	200	824	317	70	22	0%	1.0	38.4%	8.5%	29.9%	2.7%	3.12	2.42	+5.1
Career	—	MLE		591	34	725	2972	1029	244	73	6%	1.2	34.6%	8.2%	26.4%	2.5%	3.15	2.56	+16.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		163	9	200	819	284	67	20	6%	1.2	34.6%	8.2%	26.4%	2.5%	3.15	2.56	+5.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Edwin Díaz (OGILVIE)	—	—	2.59	38.9%	8.3%	2.4%	—	3.42	34.5%	25.2%	112	+0.83	—	—	—
C.C. Lee R 2018 · 3.03 FIP	31	SU	3.03	34.7%	9.1%	3.1%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.59	121	74
Wade Davis R 2018 · 3.33 FIP	32	SU	3.33	29.9%	10.0%	2.7%	.235	5.00	20.2%	8.1%	85	+1.67	2.00	320	74
Adam Ottavino R 2018 · 2.10 FIP	32	SU	2.10	36.2%	10.0%	1.4%	.224	3.23	28.6%	16.3%	147	+1.13	2.10	488	72
Mark Lowe R 2015 · 2.37 FIP	32	SU	2.37	28.4%	5.1%	1.9%	.302	5.22	19.2%	9.9%	98	+2.85	2.37	153	69
Jay Jackson R 2019 · 2.80 FIP	31	SU	2.80	32.4%	9.1%	2.3%	.272	3.59	29.4%	19.9%	41	+0.79	2.36	261	68
Josh Lueke R 2015 · 2.29 FIP	30	SU	2.29	30.0%	4.1%	2.2%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	67
Blake Wood R 2017 · 3.44 FIP	31	SU	3.44	25.3%	9.3%	2.4%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	210	67
Ryan Tepera R 2020 · 3.15 FIP	32	SU	3.15	34.8%	13.5%	2.3%	.341	3.29	25.2%	18.0%	129	+0.14	2.35	445	67
Pedro Strop R 2017 · 3.08 FIP	32	SU	3.08	26.0%	10.0%	1.7%	.263	3.43	25.3%	16.4%	101	+0.35	2.56	277	67
Bud Norris R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	32	SU	3.51	27.7%	9.0%	2.9%	.298	3.65	27.3%	20.0%	58	+0.14	3.51	316	66
Seunghwan Oh R 2016 · 1.87 FIP	34	SU	1.87	32.9%	4.8%	1.7%	.263	3.63	24.1%	19.6%	146	+1.76	1.87	226	65
Santiago Casilla R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	35	SU	3.50	25.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.290	3.97	22.4%	12.7%	161	+0.47	3.50	219	65
Craig Kimbrel R 2020 · 3.35 FIP	32	SU	3.35	40.6%	15.9%	3.0%	.286	2.77	34.6%	24.9%	189	-0.58	0.94	601	64
Blake Parker R 2017 · 2.52 FIP	32	SU	2.52	33.9%	6.3%	2.7%	.228	4.20	26.6%	18.8%	144	+1.68	2.52	339	64
David Robertson R 2017 · 2.00 FIP	32	SU	2.00	37.1%	6.8%	2.1%	.204	2.78	32.2%	23.4%	70	+0.78	2.00	494	63
Oliver Drake R 2019 · 3.25 FIP	32	SU	3.25	33.5%	8.1%	3.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	2.26	317	63
Ryan Brasier R 2020 · 2.97 FIP	32	SU	2.97	27.3%	9.1%	1.9%	.324	3.30	23.4%	17.1%	134	+0.33	2.31	426	63
Huascar Brazobán R 2022 · 3.77 FIP	32	SU	3.77	28.5%	11.4%	3.0%	.275	3.49	23.2%	12.9%	187	-0.28	3.08	366	63
Shawn Kelley R 2016 · 2.80 FIP	32	SU	2.80	35.7%	4.0%	4.0%	.254	5.05	23.1%	17.9%	122	+2.25	2.23	232	63
Michael Tonkin R 2022 · 2.31 FIP	32	SU	2.31	32.1%	7.9%	1.7%	.321	3.80	23.3%	16.0%	211	+1.49	2.31	480	63

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	36.0%	9.0%	1.09	3.15
Keone Kela ('19)	1.1	43	30.1%	9.4%	0.92	3.23
Corey Knebel ('22)	1.4	47	32.3%	11.2%	0.95	3.04
Diego Castillo ('22)	1.3	52	28.1%	8.9%	1.07	3.12
Brad Peacock ('19)	1.6	80	28.7%	9.2%	1.18	3.48
Giovanny Gallegos ('24)	1.5	52	29.4%	6.6%	1.19	3.46
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63