Bryan Baker — OGILVIE

Bryan Baker P Tampa Bay Rays

+0.5 WAR

Age 31 RHP 6'6" / 235 lbs MLB peak 0.5 · 2026

ERA4.13

FIP4.18

xFIP3.39

SIERA3.22

K%27.8%

BB%8.0%

K-BB%19.8%

IP49

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.5peak

2026

STUF5555

CTRL6060

CMD6565

K†6565

FB Velo

p8196.7

Whiff%

p7429.1%

p9030.3%

xwOBA vs

p510.311

FB+1.3 (48%)

CH+1.2 (46%)

SL-1.9 (6%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2016	21	ROK	Grand Junction Rockies	11	11	48	216	41	12	10	12.9%	6.9%	6.5%	6.00	6.45	-0.8
2017	22	A	Asheville Tourists	26	2	54	214	57	13	3	19.7%	7.2%	1.6%	1.66	3.20	+1.1
2018	23	A+	Dunedin Blue Jays	49	0	51	241	67	37	9	21.4%	17.7%	4.0%	3.68	5.73	-0.5
2019	24	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	49	0	54	232	71	34	3	25.7%	15.8%	1.7%	3.17	3.85	+0.7
2021	26	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	40	0	42	170	49	17	1	25.4%	10.8%	0.6%	1.28	2.65	+1.1
2022	27	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	66	2	70	291	76	25	3	26.1%	8.6%	1.1%	3.49	2.58	+1.9
2023	28	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	59	0	58	252	69	30	6	26.5%	12.1%	2.4%	4.32	3.70	+0.8
2024	29	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	51	0	55	227	66	23	8	26.8%	10.5%	3.7%	5.10	4.20	+0.5
2025	30	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	73	0	69	274	83	17	13	30.3%	6.2%	4.6%	4.06	3.86	+0.9
▸ 2026 Season
2026	31	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	8	0	7	29	7	2	1	—	—	—	3.68	—	—
ROS	31	MLB	TB	42	—	42	176	51	13	7	29.2%	7.2%	3.8%	3.95	3.99	+0.5
2026 Total	31	MLB	TB	—	—	49	205	58	15	8	28.5%	7.2%	3.7%	3.91	3.39	+0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	32	MLB	TB	47	—	47	198	55	15	8	27.9%	7.3%	3.8%	4.09	4.15	+0.4
2028	33	MLB	TB	45	—	45	190	52	14	7	27.3%	7.5%	3.9%	4.20	4.28	+0.3
2029	34	MLB	TB	43	—	43	180	48	14	7	26.6%	7.7%	4.0%	4.33	4.42	+0.3
2030	35	MLB	TB	40	—	40	170	44	13	7	25.8%	8.0%	4.1%	4.47	4.57	+0.2
2031	36	MLB	TB	38	—	38	159	40	13	7	25.1%	8.2%	4.2%	4.63	4.73	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			432	15	509	2146	518	226	63	24.2%	10.5%	2.9%	3.68	4.01	+7.4
/ 200 IP	—			170	6	200	844	204	89	25	24.2%	10.5%	2.9%	3.68	4.01	+2.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryan Baker (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.99	29.2%	7.2%	3.8%	—	4.28	27.3%	19.7%	135	+0.29	—	—	—
Kenley Jansen R 2026 · 3.04 FIP	31	SW	3.04	30.4%	6.1%	3.2%	.266	2.65	31.9%	22.5%	157	-0.39	0.97	640	72
Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.00 FIP	31	SW	3.00	28.1%	6.1%	2.7%	.257	3.13	20.5%	15.1%	89	+0.13	2.73	316	71
Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 3.21 FIP	31	SW	3.21	25.2%	6.0%	2.7%	.286	3.66	21.9%	12.2%	152	+0.45	2.80	284	71
David Robertson R 2026 · 3.30 FIP	31	SW	3.30	28.1%	10.5%	2.3%	.297	2.39	34.6%	26.8%	138	-0.91	2.00	494	71
Joe Kelly R 2026 · 3.25 FIP	31	SW	3.25	27.4%	8.8%	2.5%	.312	2.66	29.2%	18.8%	81	-0.59	2.39	556	70
Jay Jackson R 2026 · 2.84 FIP	31	SW	2.84	32.4%	9.1%	2.4%	.272	3.57	29.4%	19.9%	41	+0.73	2.37	261	70
Josh Fields R 2026 · 4.19 FIP	31	SW	4.19	26.9%	6.3%	4.7%	.216	5.00	20.5%	12.9%	66	+0.81	1.85	238	69
Tommy Nance R 2026 · 3.23 FIP	31	SU	3.23	29.1%	9.2%	2.6%	.345	2.77	23.7%	17.8%	118	-0.46	2.11	300	69
Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.73 FIP	31	SW	3.73	24.5%	8.2%	3.0%	.325	3.80	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.07	3.65	137	68
Jason Adam R 2026 · 3.26 FIP	31	SW	3.26	31.1%	9.0%	3.0%	.222	2.53	27.4%	20.0%	139	-0.73	2.40	362	68
Spencer Patton R 2028 · 3.03 FIP	33	SU	3.03	27.9%	8.7%	2.1%	.305	5.07	21.4%	9.7%	88	+2.04	2.83	239	68
Rubby De La Rosa R 2025 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	27.7%	8.0%	4.5%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	281	66
Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.09 FIP	31	SW	4.09	25.3%	8.3%	3.8%	.278	3.53	24.3%	18.2%	99	-0.56	2.31	403	66
Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.83 FIP	31	SU	4.83	23.8%	9.4%	4.6%	.283	4.53	22.0%	13.8%	96	-0.30	2.93	176	66
Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.33 FIP	32	SW	3.33	23.7%	7.2%	2.4%	.342	4.98	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.65	3.33	122	66
Pedro Báez R 2026 · 3.10 FIP	31	SW	3.10	25.0%	8.0%	2.0%	.207	4.27	18.6%	8.6%	17	+1.17	2.29	332	66
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 3.38 FIP	31	SW	3.38	26.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.241	3.98	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.60	3.38	212	66
Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP	31	SU	3.89	22.3%	8.6%	2.9%	.246	3.65	28.8%	20.4%	145	-0.24	1.69	468	65
Ryan Madson R 2029 · 2.94 FIP	34	SW	2.94	23.4%	5.2%	2.1%	.244	2.97	23.9%	18.7%	176	+0.03	1.43	240	65
Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.39 FIP	31	SW	3.39	25.5%	9.1%	2.4%	.254	3.70	22.8%	11.1%	129	+0.31	2.80	410	65

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.