Bryan Baker
P
Tampa Bay Rays
Age 31
RHP
6'6" / 235 lbs
MLB
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION36 act + 25 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9788vR 78
ERA3.31
FIP3.37
K%29.2%
BB%7.3%
K-BB%22.0%
ROS IP25
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p8797.1
Whiff%
p8731.1%
K%
p8829.3%
xwOBA vs
p900.246
FB+1.3 (50%)
CH+1.2 (45%)
SL-1.9 (4%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | Grand Junction Rockies | 11 | 11 | 48 | 216 | 41 | 12 | 10 | 100% | 4.4 | 12.9% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.00 | 6.45 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | Grand Junction Rockies | 11 | 11 | 48 | 216 | 41 | 12 | 10 | 100% | 4.4 | 19.0% | 5.6% | 13.4% | 4.6% | 6.00 | 4.85 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A | Asheville Tourists | 26 | 2 | 54 | 214 | 57 | 13 | 3 | 8% | 2.1 | 19.7% | 7.2% | 12.5% | 1.2% | 1.66 | 3.02 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A | Asheville Tourists | 26 | 2 | 54 | 214 | 57 | 13 | 3 | 8% | 2.1 | 26.6% | 6.1% | 20.6% | 1.4% | 1.66 | 2.44 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | 49 | 0 | 51 | 241 | 67 | 37 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 17.7% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.68 | 5.51 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | 49 | 0 | 51 | 241 | 67 | 37 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.8% | 15.4% | 12.4% | 3.7% | 3.68 | 4.93 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 54 | 232 | 71 | 34 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.7% | 15.8% | 9.9% | 1.9% | 3.17 | 3.97 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 54 | 232 | 71 | 34 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.6% | 14.7% | 15.9% | 1.3% | 3.17 | 3.08 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 42 | 170 | 49 | 17 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 14.7% | 0.6% | 1.28 | 2.63 | +1.0 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 42 | 170 | 49 | 17 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.8% | 10.0% | 18.8% | 0.6% | 1.28 | 2.30 | +1.1 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 66 | 2 | 70 | 291 | 76 | 25 | 3 | 3% | 1.1 | 26.1% | 8.6% | 17.5% | 1.0% | 3.49 | 2.51 | +1.8 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 66 | 2 | 70 | 291 | 76 | 25 | 3 | 3% | 1.1 | 26.1% | 8.6% | 17.5% | 1.0% | 3.49 | 2.55 | +1.8 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 59 | 0 | 58 | 252 | 69 | 30 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.5% | 12.1% | 14.5% | 2.4% | 4.32 | 3.68 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 59 | 0 | 58 | 252 | 69 | 30 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.4% | 11.9% | 15.5% | 2.4% | 4.32 | 3.61 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 0 | 55 | 227 | 66 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.8% | 10.5% | 16.3% | 3.7% | 5.10 | 4.18 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 0 | 55 | 227 | 66 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.1% | 10.1% | 18.9% | 3.5% | 5.10 | 3.85 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 73 | 0 | 69 | 274 | 83 | 17 | 13 | 0% | 0.9 | 30.3% | 6.2% | 24.1% | 5.0% | 4.06 | 4.08 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 73 | 0 | 69 | 274 | 83 | 17 | 13 | 0% | 0.9 | 30.3% | 6.2% | 24.1% | 4.7% | 4.06 | 3.89 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 38 | 0 | 36 | 140 | 41 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.3% | 7.9% | 21.4% | 1.4% | 1.73 | 2.41 | +0.9 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | TB | 24 | 0 | 25 | 105 | 31 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.2% | 7.3% | 22.0% | 3.3% | 3.31 | 3.37 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | TB | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 31 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.2% | 7.3% | 22.0% | 3.3% | 3.31 | 3.37 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 31 | MLB | TB | — | — | 61 | 245 | 72 | 19 | 5 | — | — | 29.3% | 7.6% | 21.7% | 2.2% | 2.37 | 2.80 | +1.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 31 | MLB | TB | — | — | 61 | 258 | 72 | 19 | 5 | — | — | 27.7% | 7.2% | 20.5% | 2.1% | 2.37 | 2.83 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | TB | 54 | 0 | 56 | 239 | 68 | 18 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.4% | 7.6% | 20.8% | 3.6% | 3.90 | 4.02 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | TB | 49 | 0 | 52 | 219 | 60 | 18 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.6% | 8.1% | 19.5% | 3.9% | 4.14 | 4.30 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | TB | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 65 | 17 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.4% | 7.6% | 20.8% | 3.6% | 3.90 | 4.02 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | TB | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 57 | 17 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.6% | 8.1% | 19.5% | 3.9% | 4.14 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 365 | 2 | 372 | 1527 | 427 | 124 | 45 | 1% | 1.0 | 28.0% | 8.1% | 19.9% | 2.9% | 3.66 | 3.37 | +8.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 196 | 1 | 200 | 822 | 230 | 67 | 24 | 1% | 1.0 | 28.0% | 8.1% | 19.9% | 2.9% | 3.66 | 3.37 | +4.8 | ||
| Career | — | 462 | 15 | 538 | 2257 | 552 | 235 | 64 | 3% | 1.2 | 24.5% | 10.4% | 14.1% | 2.8% | 3.55 | 3.90 | +9.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 172 | 6 | 200 | 840 | 205 | 87 | 24 | 3% | 1.2 | 24.5% | 10.4% | 14.1% | 2.8% | 3.55 | 3.90 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Bryan Baker (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.03 | 29.2% | 7.0% | 3.9% | — | 4.15 | 28.0% | 20.2% | 108 | +0.12 | — | — | — |
| Joe Kelly R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.45 | 27.4% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .312 | 2.75 | 29.2% | 18.8% | 81 | -0.70 | 2.48 | 556 | 74 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.20 | 25.2% | 6.0% | 2.7% | .286 | 3.68 | 21.9% | 12.2% | 152 | +0.48 | 2.82 | 284 | 74 |
| Kenley Jansen R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.29 | 30.4% | 6.1% | 3.6% | .266 | 2.82 | 31.9% | 22.5% | 157 | -0.47 | 0.98 | 663 | 73 |
| David Robertson R 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.25 | 28.1% | 10.5% | 2.2% | .297 | 2.38 | 34.6% | 26.8% | 138 | -0.87 | 1.99 | 494 | 73 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.04 | 28.1% | 6.1% | 2.8% | .257 | 3.20 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 89 | +0.16 | 2.82 | 316 | 73 |
| Jay Jackson R 2026 · 2.91 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.91 | 32.4% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .272 | 3.61 | 29.4% | 19.9% | 41 | +0.70 | 2.41 | 261 | 72 |
| Jason Adam R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.45 | 31.1% | 9.0% | 3.3% | .222 | 3.03 | 25.3% | 18.2% | 171 | -0.42 | 2.45 | 394 | 70 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 70 |
| Josh Fields R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.23 | 26.9% | 6.3% | 4.8% | .216 | 5.10 | 20.5% | 12.9% | 66 | +0.87 | 1.86 | 238 | 70 |
| Pedro Báez R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.26 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 2.3% | .207 | 4.46 | 18.6% | 8.6% | 17 | +1.20 | 2.39 | 332 | 70 |
| Tommy Nance R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.29 | 29.1% | 9.2% | 2.7% | .345 | 2.81 | 23.7% | 17.8% | 118 | -0.48 | 2.23 | 367 | 69 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.52 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 210 | 69 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 68 |
| Spencer Patton R 2028 · 3.09 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.09 | 27.9% | 8.7% | 2.3% | .305 | 5.10 | 21.4% | 9.7% | 88 | +2.01 | 2.74 | 239 | 68 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 68 |
| Ryan Madson R 2029 · 2.97 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.97 | 23.4% | 5.2% | 2.2% | .244 | 2.98 | 23.9% | 18.7% | 176 | +0.01 | 1.42 | 240 | 68 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.3% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .278 | 3.50 | 24.3% | 18.2% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.27 | 426 | 68 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.40 | 25.5% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .254 | 3.69 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 129 | +0.29 | 2.73 | 410 | 67 |
| Matt Bush R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.62 | 24.2% | 7.9% | 2.9% | .321 | 4.74 | 17.6% | 4.6% | 23 | +1.12 | 2.86 | 249 | 67 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.58 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 3.0% | .258 | 2.93 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.65 | 2.01 | 380 | 66 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 56 | 28.5% | 7.5% | 1.47 | 4.00 |
| Blake Parker ('21) | 4 | 60 | 26.6% | 7.3% | 1.40 | 3.36 |
| Erik Swanson ('24) | 5 | 51 | 26.2% | 6.5% | 1.57 | 3.70 |
| Colin Poche ('24) | 4 | 52 | 27.0% | 9.2% | 1.34 | 3.63 |
| Adbert Alzolay ('23) | 3 | 70 | 26.1% | 7.0% | 1.32 | 3.84 |
| Shawn Kelley ('19) | 5 | 46 | 27.6% | 6.2% | 1.71 | 3.65 |
| Mike Mayers ('23) | 5 | 47 | 24.3% | 7.8% | 1.50 | 4.47 |