Bryan Baker — OGILVIE

Bryan Baker P Tampa Bay Rays

Age 31 RHP 6'6" / 235 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION58 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9486vR 78

ERA3.62

FIP3.65

K%28.0%

BB%7.6%

K-BB%20.3%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL6060

CMD6565

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7796.4

Whiff%

p6728.0%

p7727.1%

xwOBA vs

p900.273

FB+1.3 (52%)

CH+1.2 (45%)

SL-1.9 (3%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	21	ROK MLE	Grand Junction Rockies	11	11	48	216	41	12	10	100%	4.4	12.9%	6.9%	6.0%	6.5%	6.00	6.45	—
2016	21	ROK RAW	Grand Junction Rockies	11	11	48	216	41	12	10	100%	4.4	19.0%	5.6%	13.4%	4.6%	6.00	4.85	—
2017	22	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	26	2	54	214	57	13	3	8%	2.1	19.7%	7.2%	12.5%	1.5%	1.66	3.15	—
2017	22	A RAW	Asheville Tourists	26	2	54	214	57	13	3	8%	2.1	26.6%	6.1%	20.6%	1.4%	1.66	2.44	—
2018	23	A+ MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	49	0	51	241	67	37	9	0%	1.0	21.4%	17.7%	3.8%	4.1%	3.68	5.76	—
2018	23	A+ RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	49	0	51	241	67	37	9	0%	1.0	27.8%	15.4%	12.4%	3.7%	3.68	4.93	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	54	232	71	34	3	0%	1.1	25.7%	15.8%	9.9%	1.7%	3.17	3.85	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	54	232	71	34	3	0%	1.1	30.6%	14.7%	15.9%	1.3%	3.17	3.08	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	42	170	49	17	1	0%	1.1	25.4%	10.8%	14.7%	0.6%	1.28	2.65	+1.0
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	42	170	49	17	1	0%	1.1	28.8%	10.0%	18.8%	0.6%	1.28	2.30	+1.1
2022	27	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	66	2	70	291	76	25	3	3%	1.1	26.1%	8.6%	17.5%	1.0%	3.49	2.55	+1.7
2022	27	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	66	2	70	291	76	25	3	3%	1.1	26.1%	8.6%	17.5%	1.0%	3.49	2.55	+1.7
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	0	58	252	69	30	6	0%	1.0	26.2%	11.6%	14.6%	2.5%	4.32	3.72	+0.6
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	0	58	252	69	30	6	0%	1.0	26.2%	11.6%	14.6%	2.5%	4.32	3.72	+0.6
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	59	0	58	252	69	30	6	0%	1.0	27.4%	11.9%	15.5%	2.4%	4.32	3.61	+0.6
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	55	227	66	23	8	0%	1.1	25.9%	9.4%	16.4%	3.8%	5.10	4.18	+0.2
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	55	227	66	23	8	0%	1.1	25.9%	9.4%	16.4%	3.8%	5.10	4.18	+0.2
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	0	55	227	66	23	8	0%	1.1	29.1%	10.1%	18.9%	3.5%	5.10	3.85	+0.5
2025	30	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	73	0	69	274	83	17	13	0%	0.9	30.3%	6.2%	24.1%	4.6%	4.06	3.86	+0.6
2025	30	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	73	0	69	274	83	17	13	0%	0.9	30.3%	6.2%	24.1%	4.6%	4.06	3.86	+0.6
2025	30	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	73	0	69	274	83	17	13	0%	0.9	30.3%	6.2%	24.1%	4.7%	4.06	3.89	+0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			266	2	266	1077	296	91	27	1%	1.0	27.5%	8.4%	19.0%	2.5%	3.35	3.22	+4.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	61	0	58	229	62	20	4	0%	1.0	27.1%	8.7%	18.3%	1.8%	1.54	2.91	+1.1
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	61	0	58	229	62	20	4	0%	1.0	27.1%	8.7%	18.3%	1.8%	1.54	2.91	+1.1
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	MLB RAW	TB	61	0	58	229	62	20	4	0%	1.0	27.1%	8.7%	18.3%	1.7%	1.54	2.88	+1.2
SO FAR	31	MLB RAW	TB	61	0	58	229	62	20	4	0%	1.0	27.1%	8.7%	18.3%	1.7%	1.54	2.88	+1.2
ROS	31	MLB MLE	TB	5	0	6	23	7	2	1	0%	1.1	28.0%	7.6%	20.3%	3.5%	3.62	3.65	+0.1
ROS	31	MLB CTX	TB	6	0	6	25	7	2	1	0%	1.0	28.0%	7.6%	20.3%	3.5%	3.62	3.65	+0.1
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	TB	—	—	64	252	69	22	5	—	—	27.2%	8.6%	18.5%	1.9%	1.72	2.97	+1.3
FULL	31	MLB A+C	TB	—	—	64	270	69	22	5	—	—	25.4%	8.1%	17.3%	1.8%	1.72	2.96	+1.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	TB	54	0	56	239	65	19	8	0%	1.0	27.4%	8.0%	19.4%	3.4%	3.92	4.03	+0.3
2028	33	MLB MLE	TB	49	0	52	219	58	19	8	0%	1.1	26.5%	8.5%	18.1%	3.7%	4.16	4.31	+0.1
2027	32	MLB CTX	TB	51	0	54	228	62	18	8	0%	1.1	27.4%	8.0%	19.4%	3.4%	3.92	4.03	+0.3
2028	33	MLB CTX	TB	47	0	49	207	55	18	8	0%	1.0	26.5%	8.5%	18.1%	3.7%	4.16	4.31	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		369	2	374	1535	420	129	43	1%	1.0	27.3%	8.4%	19.0%	2.8%	3.54	3.39	+5.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		197	1	200	820	224	69	23	1%	1.0	27.3%	8.4%	19.0%	2.8%	3.54	3.39	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		485	15	560	2346	570	240	66	3%	1.2	24.3%	10.2%	14.1%	2.8%	3.46	3.90	+4.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		173	5	200	838	204	86	24	3%	1.2	24.3%	10.2%	14.1%	2.8%	3.46	3.90	+2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryan Baker (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.96	29.0%	6.9%	3.8%	—	4.16	27.0%	18.8%	108	+0.20	—	—	—
David Robertson R 2016 · 3.27 FIP	31	SU	3.27	28.1%	10.5%	2.2%	.297	2.39	34.6%	26.8%	138	-0.88	2.00	494	80
Joe Kelly R 2019 · 3.30 FIP	31	SU	3.30	27.4%	8.8%	2.5%	.312	2.71	29.2%	18.8%	81	-0.59	2.38	556	80
Tommy Hunter R 2017 · 2.99 FIP	31	SU	2.99	28.1%	6.1%	2.7%	.257	3.16	20.5%	15.1%	89	+0.17	2.78	316	76
Pedro Báez R 2019 · 3.14 FIP	31	SU	3.14	25.0%	8.0%	2.1%	.207	4.30	18.6%	8.6%	17	+1.16	2.29	332	75
Blake Wood R 2017 · 3.44 FIP	31	SU	3.44	25.3%	9.3%	2.4%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	210	75
Kenley Jansen R 2019 · 3.10 FIP	31	SU	3.10	30.4%	6.1%	3.3%	.266	2.77	31.9%	22.5%	157	-0.33	0.89	681	75
Jumbo Diaz R 2015 · 3.16 FIP	31	SU	3.16	25.2%	6.0%	2.6%	.286	3.65	21.9%	12.2%	152	+0.49	2.80	284	75
Brad Brach R 2017 · 3.36 FIP	31	SU	3.36	25.5%	9.1%	2.3%	.254	3.68	22.8%	11.1%	129	+0.32	2.69	410	74
Josh Fields R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	31	SU	3.98	26.9%	6.3%	4.3%	.216	5.01	20.5%	12.9%	66	+1.03	1.90	238	74
Jason Adam R 2023 · 3.40 FIP	31	SU	3.40	31.1%	9.0%	3.2%	.222	2.95	25.3%	18.2%	171	-0.45	2.42	394	74
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	73
Daniel Hudson R 2018 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.3%	8.6%	2.9%	.246	3.69	28.8%	20.4%	145	-0.22	1.68	468	73
Matt Bush R 2017 · 3.60 FIP	31	SU	3.60	24.2%	7.9%	2.8%	.321	4.72	17.6%	4.6%	23	+1.12	2.87	249	72
Jay Jackson R 2019 · 2.80 FIP	31	SU	2.80	32.4%	9.1%	2.3%	.272	3.59	29.4%	19.9%	41	+0.79	2.36	261	72
Tommy Nance R 2022 · 3.28 FIP	31	SU	3.28	29.1%	9.2%	2.7%	.345	2.78	22.9%	17.5%	118	-0.50	2.12	354	72
Ryan Brasier R 2019 · 4.12 FIP	31	SU	4.12	25.3%	8.3%	3.8%	.278	3.56	24.3%	18.2%	99	-0.56	2.31	426	71
Ross Ohlendorf R 2015 · 3.30 FIP	32	SU	3.30	23.7%	7.2%	2.3%	.342	4.93	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.63	3.30	122	71
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	212	71
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.92	176	70
Spencer Patton R 2021 · 3.04 FIP	33	SU	3.04	27.9%	8.7%	2.2%	.305	5.01	20.8%	10.0%	88	+1.97	2.79	239	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	56	27.7%	7.7%	1.39	4.00
Blake Parker ('21)	1.2	60	26.6%	7.3%	1.40	3.36
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Adbert Alzolay ('23)	1.1	70	26.1%	7.0%	1.32	3.84
Erik Swanson ('24)	1.3	51	26.2%	6.5%	1.57	3.70
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47