Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 70 | 0 | 73 | 271 | 75 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.6% | 4.5% | 22.1% | 1.6% | 2.22 | 2.30 | +2.2 |
| 2015 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 70 | 0 | 73 | 271 | 75 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.7% | 4.4% | 23.2% | 1.5% | 2.22 | 2.25 | +2.2 |
| 2016 | 27 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 72 | 0 | 61 | 250 | 57 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 0.8 | 22.8% | 6.4% | 16.4% | 1.7% | 3.10 | 2.94 | +1.2 |
| 2016 | 27 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 72 | 0 | 61 | 250 | 57 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 0.8 | 22.8% | 6.4% | 16.4% | 1.6% | 3.10 | 2.87 | +1.2 |
| 2017 | 28 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 68 | 0 | 61 | 268 | 58 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 21.6% | 9.3% | 12.3% | 1.6% | 2.64 | 3.34 | +0.9 |
| 2017 | 28 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 68 | 0 | 61 | 268 | 58 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 21.6% | 9.3% | 12.3% | 1.5% | 2.64 | 3.28 | +0.9 |
| 2018 | 29 | MIX | 4 levels | 55 | 1 | 51 | 223 | 47 | 20 | 6 | 2% | 0.9 | 18.4% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 3.71 | 4.23 | +0.2 |
| 2018 | 29 | MIX | 4 levels | 55 | 1 | 51 | 223 | 47 | 20 | 6 | 2% | 0.9 | 21.1% | 9.0% | 12.1% | 2.7% | 3.71 | 3.96 | +0.4 |
| 2019 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 0 | 27 | 117 | 22 | 9 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 17.1% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 5.7% | 5.27 | 5.75 | -0.4 |
| 2019 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 0 | 27 | 117 | 22 | 9 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 18.8% | 7.7% | 11.1% | 6.0% | 5.27 | 5.81 | -0.4 |
| 2020 | 31 | MLB | New York Mets | 4 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.8 | 25.0% | 6.2% | 18.8% | 0.0% | 8.10 | 1.78 | +0.1 |
| 2020 | 31 | MLB | New York Mets | 4 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.8 | 25.0% | 6.2% | 18.8% | 0.0% | 8.10 | 1.60 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 32 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 57 | 0 | 59 | 242 | 58 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.0% | 9.1% | 14.9% | 3.4% | 2.61 | 4.12 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 32 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 57 | 0 | 59 | 242 | 58 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.0% | 9.1% | 14.9% | 3.3% | 2.61 | 4.02 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 33 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 66 | 0 | 62 | 284 | 60 | 32 | 8 | 0% | 0.9 | 21.1% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 2.7% | 4.91 | 4.21 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 33 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 66 | 0 | 62 | 284 | 60 | 32 | 8 | 0% | 0.9 | 21.1% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 4.91 | 4.38 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 34 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 12 | 0 | 11 | 58 | 8 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 12.1% | 19.9% | -7.8% | 3.4% | 11.45 | 6.48 | — |
| 2023 | 34 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 12 | 0 | 11 | 58 | 8 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 13.8% | 19.0% | -5.2% | 3.4% | 11.45 | 7.01 | — |
| 2024 | 35 | MIX | 2 levels | 74 | 0 | 75 | 305 | 59 | 24 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 7.8% | 11.6% | 3.5% | 3.58 | 4.39 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 35 | MIX | 2 levels | 74 | 0 | 75 | 305 | 59 | 24 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.3% | 7.9% | 11.5% | 3.3% | 3.58 | 4.22 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 36 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 0 | 40 | 175 | 31 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 16.5% | 10.0% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 5.13 | 5.03 | -0.2 |
| 2025 | 36 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 0 | 40 | 175 | 31 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 17.7% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 5.13 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 37 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 10 | 1 | 12 | 63 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 10% | 1.2 | 18.2% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 5.2% | 13.14 | 5.50 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 37 | MLB | LAA | 52 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 43 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.5% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 4.50 | 4.88 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 37 | MLB | LAA | 5 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.5% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 4.50 | 4.88 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 37 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 67 | 293 | 56 | 26 | 11 | — | — | 19.0% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 3.6% | 6.10 | 4.99 | -0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 37 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 5 | 23 | 4 | 2 | 1 | — | — | 18.5% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 4.50 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 38 | MLB | LAA | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 34 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.4% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 3.7% | 4.99 | 5.31 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 39 | MLB | LAA | 38 | 0 | 40 | 170 | 28 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.2% | 10.5% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 5.44 | 5.74 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 38 | MLB | LAA | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 34 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.4% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 3.7% | 4.99 | 5.31 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 39 | MLB | LAA | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 27 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.2% | 10.5% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 5.44 | 5.74 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 578 | 0 | 555 | 2332 | 479 | 202 | 66 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 11.9% | 2.8% | 3.73 | 4.02 | +8.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 208 | 0 | 200 | 840 | 172 | 73 | 24 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 11.9% | 2.8% | 3.73 | 4.02 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 553 | 2 | 537 | 2272 | 477 | 196 | 64 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.0% | 8.6% | 12.3% | 2.8% | 3.91 | 3.98 | +8.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 206 | 1 | 200 | 846 | 178 | 73 | 24 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.0% | 8.6% | 12.3% | 2.8% | 3.91 | 3.98 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Hunter Strickland (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.88 | 18.5% | 9.1% | 3.3% | — | 5.51 | 16.8% | 6.7% | 87 | +0.63 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Rodney R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 75 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 37 | SU | 4.04 | 22.0% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .289 | 4.08 | 16.8% | 1.6% | 44 | +0.04 | 3.51 | 219 | 74 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.56 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 3.5% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 119 | 72 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2025 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 71 |
| Jean Machi R 2024 · 3.92 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.92 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 186 | 70 |
| Jason Motte R 2024 · 5.16 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.16 | 16.3% | 11.4% | 3.6% | .193 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 113 | 70 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2024 · 4.59 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.59 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 208 | 69 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2024 · 6.00 FIP | 35 | SU | 6.00 | 19.2% | 9.4% | 6.1% | .385 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.68 | 150 | 67 |
| Ronald Belisario R 2025 · 4.74 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.74 | 12.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 126 | 67 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.73 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .179 | 4.04 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.31 | 3.72 | 164 | 66 |
| Zack Segovia R 2025 · 4.36 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.36 | 17.6% | 13.6% | 1.9% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 144 | 66 |
| Salvador Valdez R 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.24 | 17.1% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .405 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 326 | 63 |
| Chien-Ming Wang R 2025 · 4.52 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.52 | 13.0% | 7.8% | 2.8% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 183 | 62 |
| Matt Bush R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.83 | 26.6% | 9.3% | 3.3% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.86 | 249 | 62 |
| Seunghwan Oh R 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 37 | SU | 5.30 | 18.2% | 6.8% | 5.2% | .383 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.81 | 226 | 62 |
| Joe Blanton R 2025 · 4.94 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.94 | 20.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 240 | 59 |
| Oscar Villarreal R 2024 · 5.28 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.28 | 8.7% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.54 | 135 | 58 |
| Craig Stammen R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.72 | 23.4% | 3.4% | 3.9% | .267 | 5.15 | 19.8% | 14.2% | 41 | +1.43 | 1.87 | 407 | 46 |
| Yoshihisa Hirano R 2025 · 5.07 FIP | 36 | SU | 5.07 | 17.5% | 12.7% | 3.3% | .381 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 132 | 46 |
| Sergio Romo R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.76 | 26.4% | 8.0% | 3.4% | .241 | 4.79 | 22.0% | 14.9% | 80 | +1.03 | 1.71 | 371 | 46 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 47 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 1.43 | 4.93 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |