Jake Bauers

1B Milwaukee Brewers

Age 31 L/L 6'0" / 216 lbs MLB HR +10%K +6% Svc 6.488 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

MLB40-MANExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	28	MLBMIL	346	.199/.301/.361	12	13	88	-0.5
2025	29	MLBMIL	218	.235/.355/.399	7	8	115	0.3
2026	30	MLBMIL	578	.266/.391/.484	26	11	145	3.0
2027PROJ	31	MLBMIL	418	.233/.352/.439	18	10	123	1.3
2028PROJ	32	MLBMIL	499	.226/.345/.422	21	7	117	0.8
2029PROJ	33	MLBMIL	406	.217/.336/.402	16	2	110	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service6.488First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$12M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Bat Spd90

xwOBA84

Barrel%81

Avg EV81

Speed37

Form.212/.357/.400 ▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .234/.350/.435

CompsMax Kepler (age 31) · Eric Hinske (age 31) · Daniel Vogelbach (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†123

AVG/OBP/SLG.233 / .352 / .439

PA418

HR18

SB10

K%27

BB%15

BABIP285

ISO200

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT

xAVG

290.234

POWER

Barrel%

8112.8

Avg EV

8191.2

Bat Spd

9076.2

SPEED

Sprint

3726.9

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%32%▼▼35% over 97 PA (60d) · proj 27%

BB%18%▲▲22% over 97 PA (60d) · proj 15%

ISO.189▼.162 over 74 AB (60d) · proj .201

HR/BB7.3%·7.3% over 41 BBE (60d) · proj 7.3%

BABIP.292·.342 over 38 BIP (60d) · proj .289

SLASH.212/.357/.400▼proj .234/.350/.435

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 616 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

581

—

wRC+

104

▶R

wOBA

300

321

▶R

ISO

152

179

▶▶R

BABIP

280

286

—

20.0%

30.6%

◀◀L

BB%

2.9%

12.1%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2018

Service 6.488 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$12M	+1.5	$12M	-$0.2M
Totals		$12M		$12M	-$0.2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2013	17	ROK	AZL Padres	—	188	163	46	8	2	1	14	31	3	2	0	282	350	374	724	92	331	16	7	315	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	18	A	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	467	406	120	18	3	8	51	80	4	5	6	296	380	414	793	118	347	17	11	354	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	285	257	71	18	0	5	21	41	1	6	3	276	333	405	738	128	307	14	7	324	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A+	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	249	217	58	14	2	6	29	33	2	2	3	267	359	433	792	166	291	13	12	353	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	76	67	17	2	1	2	9	14	0	0	0	254	342	403	745	149	294	18	12	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	581	493	135	28	1	14	73	89	6	10	6	274	374	420	794	146	305	15	13	353	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	575	486	128	31	1	13	78	112	5	20	3	263	371	412	782	148	314	19	14	351	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	388	323	65	22	2	11	54	104	3	6	6	201	321	384	705	183	252	27	14	313	99	-1	-1	-8	-11	+8	-1.2
2018	22	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	222	197	55	14	0	5	23	47	1	10	6	279	357	426	784	147	345	21	10	350	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	MLB	Cleveland Indians	—	423	372	84	16	1	12	45	115	3	3	3	226	314	371	685	145	290	27	11	309	95	-3	-1	-7	-6	+9	-0.7
2019	23	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	103	89	22	7	0	3	14	26	0	8	2	247	350	427	776	180	317	25	14	348	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	315	282	59	7	0	4	30	78	2	6	1	209	289	277	565	67	275	25	10	264	65	-13	+1	+1	-6	+7	-1.0
2022	26	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	244	202	37	6	1	8	39	76	1	8	3	183	318	342	660	158	242	31	16	303	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	MLB	New York Yankees	—	272	242	49	15	0	12	27	95	0	3	2	202	283	413	696	211	268	35	10	305	89	-3	-0	-4	-4	+6	-0.6
2023	27	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	97	78	28	7	1	11	19	16	0	6	0	359	485	897	1.382	538	333	16	20	566	172	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	346	302	60	9	2	12	39	118	5	13	1	199	301	361	662	162	279	34	11	301	88	-5	+2	-3	-6	+7	-0.5
2025	29	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	218	183	43	9	0	7	32	59	2	8	1	235	355	399	754	164	305	27	15	341	115	+4	+1	-3	-4	+5	0.3
2025	29	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	22	19	4	1	0	3	3	8	0	0	0	211	318	737	1.055	526	125	36	14	437	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	578	477	127	22	2	26	94	156	4	11	6	266	391	484	876	218	339	27	16	387	145	+31	-0	-4	-10	+13	3.0
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2540	2181	487	100	7	84	321	725	19	50	20	223	328	391	719	168	290	29	13	323	105	+14	+2	-28	-47	+55	-0.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2013	17	ROK MLE	AZL Padres	—	188	168	37	6	1	1	9	45	3	2	0	220	272	286	558	65	266	24	5	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	18	A MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	467	421	104	14	3	6	36	113	4	5	6	247	312	337	650	90	311	24	8	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	285	264	68	18	0	4	14	50	1	6	3	258	297	371	669	114	294	18	5	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A+ MLE	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	249	224	55	14	1	6	22	48	2	2	3	246	319	397	716	152	289	19	9	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	581	514	128	26	1	11	52	110	6	10	6	249	325	368	693	119	286	19	9	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	575	509	121	28	1	11	55	131	5	20	3	238	318	361	680	124	291	23	10	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	388	323	64	22	2	11	54	104	3	6	6	198	318	381	699	183	252	27	14	314	99	-1	-1	-8	-11	+8	-1.2
2018	22	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	222	203	49	11	0	5	17	55	1	10	6	241	303	369	673	128	305	25	8	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	—	423	372	84	16	1	12	45	115	3	3	3	226	314	371	685	145	290	27	11	308	95	-3	-1	-7	-6	+9	-0.7
2019	23	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	103	94	21	6	0	3	9	31	0	8	2	223	291	383	674	160	301	30	9	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	315	284	59	7	0	4	29	78	2	6	1	208	286	275	560	67	275	25	9	264	65	-13	+1	+1	-6	+7	-1.0
2022	26	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	244	216	31	5	1	6	25	91	1	8	3	144	236	259	495	116	202	37	10	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	272	242	48	15	0	11	27	95	0	3	2	198	279	397	676	198	268	35	10	300	89	-3	-0	-4	-4	+6	-0.6
2023	27	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	97	85	23	6	1	8	12	19	0	6	0	271	361	647	1.008	376	268	20	12	422	172	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	346	303	60	10	2	11	38	118	5	13	1	198	298	353	651	155	279	34	11	298	88	-5	+2	-3	-6	+7	-0.5
2025	29	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	218	184	44	10	0	7	31	59	2	8	1	239	355	408	762	168	305	27	14	339	115	+4	+1	-3	-4	+5	0.3
2025	29	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	22	20	3	1	0	2	2	10	0	0	0	150	227	500	727	350	91	45	9	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	578	481	128	24	2	25	90	156	4	11	6	266	386	480	866	214	339	27	16	382	145	+31	-0	-4	-10	+13	3.0
2013	17	ROK MLE	AZL Padres	—	188	168	37	6	1	1	9	45	3	2	0	220	272	286	558	65	283	24	5	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	17	ROK RAW	AZL Padres	—	188	163	46	8	2	1	14	31	3	2	0	282	350	374	724	92	331	16	7	315	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	18	A MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	467	421	104	14	3	6	36	113	4	5	6	247	312	337	650	90	319	24	8	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	18	A RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	467	406	120	18	3	8	51	80	4	5	6	296	380	414	793	118	347	17	11	354	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	AA MLE	3 teams	—	610	559	143	37	2	12	41	112	3	8	6	256	310	394	704	138	298	18	7	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	AA RAW	3 teams	—	610	541	146	34	3	13	59	88	3	8	6	270	345	416	761	146	299	14	10	337	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	581	514	128	26	1	11	52	110	6	10	6	249	325	368	693	119	292	19	9	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	—	581	493	135	28	1	14	73	89	6	10	6	274	374	420	794	146	305	15	13	353	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	575	509	121	28	1	11	55	131	5	20	3	238	318	361	680	124	296	23	10	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	AAA RAW	Durham Bulls	—	575	486	128	31	1	13	78	112	5	20	3	263	371	412	782	148	314	19	14	351	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	610	526	115	34	2	16	71	159	4	16	12	219	316	382	698	163	277	26	12	305	93	-5	-2	-8	-11	+13	-1.3
2018	22	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	610	520	120	36	2	16	77	151	4	16	12	231	334	400	734	169	290	25	13	326	93	-5	-2	-8	-11	+13	-1.3
2019	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	526	466	105	22	1	15	54	146	3	11	5	225	310	373	683	148	292	28	10	305	92	-5	+0	-7	-6	+11	-0.6
2019	23	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	526	461	106	23	1	15	59	141	3	11	5	230	321	382	703	152	295	27	11	316	92	-5	+0	-7	-6	+11	-0.6
2021	25	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	315	284	59	7	0	4	29	78	2	6	1	208	286	275	560	67	272	25	9	264	65	-13	+1	+1	-6	+7	-1.0
2021	25	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	—	315	282	59	7	0	4	30	78	2	6	1	209	289	277	565	67	275	25	10	264	65	-13	+1	+1	-6	+7	-1.0
2022	26	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	244	216	31	5	1	6	25	91	1	8	3	144	236	259	495	116	207	37	10	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA RAW	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	244	202	37	6	1	8	39	76	1	8	3	183	318	342	660	158	242	31	16	303	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	369	327	72	22	1	19	39	114	0	9	2	220	303	468	771	248	269	31	11	332	111	+5	+1	-4	-4	+8	0.6
2023	27	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	369	320	77	22	1	23	46	111	0	9	2	241	336	531	867	291	286	30	12	374	111	+5	+1	-4	-4	+8	0.6
2024	28	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	346	303	60	10	2	11	38	118	5	13	1	198	298	353	651	155	282	34	11	298	88	-5	+2	-3	-6	+7	-0.5
2024	28	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	—	346	302	60	9	2	12	39	118	5	13	1	199	301	361	662	162	279	34	11	301	88	-5	+2	-3	-6	+7	-0.5
2025	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	240	204	45	10	0	8	33	69	2	8	1	221	335	387	722	167	289	29	14	332	111	+3	+1	-3	-4	+5	0.3
2025	29	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	240	202	47	10	0	10	35	67	2	8	1	233	351	431	782	198	294	28	15	350	111	+3	+1	-3	-4	+5	0.3
2026	30	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	578	481	128	24	2	25	90	156	4	11	6	266	386	480	866	214	340	27	16	382	145	+31	-0	-4	-10	+13	3.0
2026	30	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	—	578	477	127	22	2	26	94	156	4	11	6	266	391	484	876	218	339	27	16	387	145	+31	-0	-4	-10	+13	3.0
2013	17	ROK MLE	AZL Padres	—	188	174	37	6	1	1	9	45	3	2	0	213	272	276	548	63	266	24	5	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	18	A MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	467	424	104	14	3	6	36	113	4	5	6	245	312	335	647	90	311	24	8	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	AA MLE	3 teams	—	610	561	143	37	2	12	41	112	3	8	6	255	310	392	702	137	292	18	7	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	581	518	128	26	1	11	52	110	6	10	6	247	325	365	690	118	286	19	9	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	575	510	121	28	1	11	55	131	5	20	3	237	318	361	679	124	291	23	10	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	610	530	115	34	2	16	71	159	4	16	12	217	316	379	695	162	272	26	12	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	526	464	105	22	1	15	54	146	3	11	5	226	310	375	685	149	292	28	10	305	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	315	281	59	7	0	4	29	78	2	6	1	210	286	278	563	68	275	25	9	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	244	216	31	5	1	6	25	91	1	8	3	144	236	259	495	116	202	37	10	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	369	327	72	22	1	19	39	114	0	9	2	220	303	468	771	248	268	31	11	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	346	300	60	10	2	11	38	118	5	13	1	200	298	357	654	157	279	34	11	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	240	203	45	10	0	8	33	69	2	8	1	222	335	389	724	167	285	29	14	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	578	479	128	24	2	25	90	156	4	11	6	267	386	482	868	215	339	27	16	382	145	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	28	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	346	300	60	10	2	11	38	118	5	13	1	200	298	357	654	157	279	34	11	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	240	203	45	10	0	8	33	69	2	8	1	222	335	389	724	167	285	29	14	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	578	479	128	24	2	25	90	156	4	11	6	267	386	482	868	215	339	27	16	382	145	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	31	MLB MLE	MIL	100%	498	419	99	18	2	21	72	135	4	12	3	234	353	435	788	201	289	27	14	351	123	+14	+1	-1	-9	+11	1.5
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	31	MLB CTX	MIL	100%	418	350	81	14	1	18	61	113	4	10	3	233	352	439	791	205	285	27	15	351	123	+12	+1	-1	-7	+9	1.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	MIL	100%	499	420	95	17	1	20	72	137	4	7	3	227	346	418	764	191	282	27	14	341	117	+10	+0	-5	-9	+11	0.8
2029	33	MLB MLE	MIL	100%	406	342	75	13	1	16	58	114	3	2	2	218	336	398	735	180	274	28	14	330	110	+5	-0	-5	-7	+9	0.1
2030	34	MLB MLE	MIL	100%	312	263	55	9	1	11	44	90	2	1	1	207	325	375	700	168	263	29	14	317	100	+0	-0	-6	-6	+7	-0.5
2028	32	MLB CTX	MIL	100%	499	420	94	16	1	21	72	137	4	7	3	226	345	422	767	196	278	27	14	342	117	+10	+0	-5	-9	+11	0.8
2029	33	MLB CTX	MIL	100%	406	342	74	12	1	16	58	114	3	2	2	217	336	402	738	185	270	28	14	331	110	+5	-0	-5	-7	+9	0.1
2030	34	MLB CTX	MIL	100%	312	263	55	8	1	12	44	90	2	1	1	207	325	378	703	172	259	29	14	317	100	+0	-0	-6	-6	+7	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3757	3206	710	136	10	133	495	1066	28	60	26	221	331	395	725	173	284	28	13	326	98	+29	+2	-43	-69	+81	0.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	555	124	24	2	23	86	184	5	10	4	223	333	398	732	175	287	28	13	326	98	+5	+0	-8	-12	+14	0.0
Career	—	MLE		—	7284	6353	1455	299	21	210	807	1896	55	147	61	229	321	382	703	153	290	26	11	313	98	+41	+2	-44	-76	+90	1.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	567	131	27	2	19	72	169	5	13	5	231	323	386	709	155	292	26	11	313	98	+6	+0	-7	-12	+14	0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAANashville Sounds · 22 PAwOBA .424 → .267 (−157)K% 36.4% → 43.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	36.36%	÷1.010	×1.200	—	—	43.18%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.64%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.972	9.15%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.00%
Singles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.983	×0.930	—	×0.972	0.00%
Doubles /BIP	9.09%	÷0.973	×0.830	—	×0.972	7.54%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	—	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	27.27%	÷1.111	×0.700	—	×0.972	16.70%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 97, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 102, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .424 → .267; ISO .526 → .318; BABIP .125 → .091. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 97 PAwOBA .550 → .422 (−128)K% 16.5% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.49%	÷0.998	×1.200	—	—	19.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	19.59%	÷1.059	×0.690	—	×0.992	12.66%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.00%
Singles /BIP	14.52%	÷1.029	×0.930	×0.950	×0.992	12.36%
Doubles /BIP	11.29%	÷0.903	×0.830	×0.950	×0.992	9.78%
Triples /BIP	1.61%	÷1.048	×0.970	×0.950	×0.992	1.41%
Home runs /BIP	17.74%	÷1.017	×0.700	—	×0.992	12.11%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 106, 2B 81, 3B 110, K 100, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .550 → .422; ISO .538 → .411; BABIP .333 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 244 PAwOBA .298 → .222 (−76)K% 31.1% → 37.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.15%	÷1.001	×1.200	—	—	37.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.98%	÷1.066	×0.690	—	×1.003	10.38%
HBP% /PA	0.41%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.39%
Singles /BIP	17.46%	÷1.047	×0.930	×0.963	×1.003	14.98%
Doubles /BIP	4.76%	÷0.988	×0.830	×0.963	×1.003	3.86%
Triples /BIP	0.79%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.963	×1.003	0.74%
Home runs /BIP	6.35%	÷1.006	×0.700	—	×1.003	4.43%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 109, 2B 98, 3B 100, K 100, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.

Result: wOBA .298 → .222; ISO .158 → .117; BABIP .242 → .202. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAColumbus Clippers · 103 PAwOBA .339 → .289 (−50)K% 25.2% → 30.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.24%	÷0.993	×1.200	—	—	30.51%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.59%	÷1.089	×0.690	—	×1.048	9.02%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.00%
Singles /BIP	19.05%	÷0.970	×0.930	—	×1.048	19.15%
Doubles /BIP	11.11%	÷0.995	×0.830	—	×1.048	9.72%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	—	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.76%	÷0.985	×0.840	—	×1.048	4.26%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 94, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 99, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .339 → .289; ISO .180 → .157; BABIP .317 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAADurham Bulls · 222 PAwOBA .341 → .290 (−51)K% 21.2% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.17%	÷1.032	×1.200	—	—	24.61%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.36%	÷0.986	×0.690	—	×1.050	7.61%
HBP% /PA	0.45%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.44%
Singles /BIP	24.00%	÷1.052	×0.930	×0.995	×1.050	22.16%
Doubles /BIP	9.33%	÷1.091	×0.830	×0.995	×1.050	7.42%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.993	×0.970	×0.995	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.33%	÷0.970	×0.840	—	×1.050	3.03%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 110, 2B 118, 3B 99, K 106, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.

Result: wOBA .341 → .290; ISO .147 → .125; BABIP .345 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAADurham Bulls · 575 PAwOBA .344 → .302 (−42)K% 19.5% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.48%	÷1.027	×1.200	—	—	22.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.22%	÷0.993	×0.690	—	×1.050	9.65%
HBP% /PA	0.87%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.86%
Singles /BIP	22.19%	÷1.025	×0.930	×1.001	×1.050	21.16%
Doubles /BIP	8.29%	÷1.008	×0.830	×1.001	×1.050	7.17%
Triples /BIP	0.27%	÷1.022	×0.970	×1.001	×1.050	0.27%
Home runs /BIP	3.48%	÷1.049	×0.840	—	×1.050	2.92%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 105, 2B 102, 3B 104, K 105, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.

Result: wOBA .344 → .302; ISO .148 → .130; BABIP .314 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 581 PAwOBA .348 → .306 (−43)K% 15.3% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.32%	÷0.982	×1.220	—	—	19.03%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.39%	÷0.980	×0.680	—	×1.050	9.03%
HBP% /PA	1.03%	—	×0.840	—	×1.050	0.91%
Singles /BIP	22.77%	÷0.982	×0.920	×0.976	×1.050	21.87%
Doubles /BIP	6.93%	÷1.040	×0.910	×0.976	×1.050	6.22%
Triples /BIP	0.25%	÷0.994	×0.880	×0.976	×1.050	0.22%
Home runs /BIP	3.47%	÷1.081	×0.800	—	×1.050	2.69%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 96, 2B 108, 3B 99, K 96, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.

Result: wOBA .348 → .306; ISO .146 → .123; BABIP .305 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 285 PAwOBA .317 → .295 (−22)K% 14.4% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.39%	÷0.990	×1.220	—	—	17.73%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.67%	÷0.987	×0.680	—	×1.050	4.82%
HBP% /PA	0.35%	—	×0.840	—	×1.050	0.31%
Singles /BIP	22.22%	÷1.005	×0.920	×0.989	×1.050	21.12%
Doubles /BIP	8.33%	÷0.953	×0.910	×0.989	×1.050	8.26%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.880	×0.989	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.31%	÷0.983	×0.800	—	×1.050	1.98%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 101, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.

Result: wOBA .317 → .295; ISO .128 → .121; BABIP .307 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jonny Gomeslast yr '15 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,978 PA	6.0	3,978	162	50	243	335	438	-43	-67	8.3	9.2
/162	664	27	8	-7.1	-11.1	1.4	pk7: 10
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	6.3	4,175	149	71	224	331	400	-75	-56	7.6	8.0
/162	664	24	11	-11.9	-9.0	1.2	pk7: 8
#2Scott Spiezio'96-'07 * career totals — 11 seasons, 4,412 PA	6.6	4,412	119	33	245*	318*	406*	-34	-15	7.5	7.8
/162	664	18	5	-5.2	-2.3	1.1	pk7: 8
#3Kevin Young'92-'03 * career totals — 11 seasons, 4,351 PA	6.6	4,351	144	83	247*	309*	426*	-69	-12	2.9	4.6
/162	664	22	13	-10.6	-1.9	0.4	pk7: 6
#4Justin Smoaklast yr '20 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,750 PA	7.2	4,750	196	3	229	322	419	-85	-77	1.9	3.9
/162	664	27	0	-11.9	-10.7	0.3	pk7: 6
#5Ike Davislast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,377 PA	3.6	2,377	81	7	239	332	416	-42	-36	1.7	1.7
/162	664	23	2	-11.9	-10.1	0.5	pk7: 2
#6Charlie Spikes'72-'80 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,232 PA	3.4	2,232	65	27	246*	307*	433*	-26	-16	1.3	1.7
/162	664	19	8	-7.6	-4.6	0.4	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jake Bauers (OGILVIE)	31	—	—	—	—	232/350/431	199	289	18	10	27%	15%	123	+2.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Max Kepler 2024 · MLB	31	46→56	55→60	47→50	54	242/322/427	185	266	22	5	19%	10%	111	+2.1	236/302/391	155	272	18	4	20%	8%	96	+1.0	224/289/360	136	260	15	3	20%	8%	84	+0.1
✕Eric Hinske 2009 · MLB	31	46→55	57→60	50	54	243/324/449	206	276	24	11	22%	10%	117	+2.6	245/325/438	193	290	23	6	23%	10%	115	+2.4	241/323/429	188	290	23	1	25%	10%	113	+1.0
✕Daniel Vogelbach 2023 · MLB	30	47→53	54→60	46→40	63	243/356/426	183	292	22	2	24%	15%	123	+3.0	239/337/410	171	293	21	4	24%	13%	113	+2.3	238/341/410	173	289	25	0	25%	13%	116	+1.3
✕Aaron Hicks 2021 · MLB	31	46→56	55→60	48→55	64	237/352/429	192	273	22	9	21%	15%	122	+3.0	226/330/361	135	280	15	10	23%	13%	99	+1.3	221/326/330	109	278	13	11	23%	13%	92	+0.4
✕Wil Myers 2022 · MLB	31	52→54	56→60	46→55	49	261/334/461	201	337	23	11	29%	10%	123	+3.0	239/301/388	149	322	17	8	29%	8%	95	+0.9	226/282/350	124	309	15	5	31%	7%	78	-0.1
✕Luis Valbuena 2017 · MLB	31	46→56	57→60	43→50	55	241/328/440	199	274	25	3	22%	11%	116	+2.5	219/294/406	187	270	25	4	28%	9%	97	+1.1	199/273/382	183	243	26	3	30%	9%	84	+0.1
✕Yonder Alonso 2018 · MLB	31	51→59	53→55	43→45	56	263/339/438	175	293	21	4	18%	10%	120	+2.8	240/315/410	170	276	22	3	21%	10%	105	+1.7	228/305/386	158	261	21	0	21%	9%	97	+0.9
●Garrett Jones 2012 · MLB	31	48→52	55→60	47→50	50	250/312/437	188	281	22	10	20%	8%	110	+2.1	253/308/457	204	288	25	4	21%	7%	113	+2.3	253/306/458	205	288	24	2	21%	7%	113	+1.9
✕Brad Wilkerson 2008 · MLB	31	45→55	56→60	45→50	52	234/318/432	198	289	23	7	27%	11%	111	+2.1	228/306/378	150	282	16	8	24%	10%	94	+0.9	209/291/310	101	263	8	6	22%	10%	74	-0.3
✕Kila Ka'aihue 2015 · MLB	31	45→52	55	44→30	51	238/314/424	186	275	24	5	23%	9%	107	+1.9	196/274/307	111	239	12	5	22%	9%	66	-1.1	153/241/234	81	183	9	0	22%	10%	36	-2.0
✕Ricky Ledee 2005 · MLB	31	46→47	55→60	49→50	56	240/326/430	190	274	22	6	22%	11%	113	+2.3	239/302/393	154	285	17	5	22%	8%	96	+1.0	231/286/365	134	281	15	1	23%	6%	83	+0.1
✕Travis Shaw 2021 · MLB	31	41→51	55→60	45	54	220/312/400	179	265	24	5	26%	11%	102	+1.5	215/294/375	160	270	20	5	27%	9%	89	+0.5	196/287/362	166	235	22	0	27%	10%	84	+0.1
✕Ji Man Choi 2022 · MLB	31	48→50	53→55	42→45	57	240/341/421	181	302	20	3	26%	13%	117	+2.6	221/315/387	166	295	19	3	29%	12%	100	+1.3	202/301/361	159	269	19	0	30%	12%	89	+0.2
✕Justin Bour 2019 · MLB	31	47→55	58→65	49→40	55	250/335/448	198	285	27	3	23%	11%	121	+2.9	223/312/414	191	268	25	5	26%	11%	105	+1.7	193/288/390	196	223	27	2	28%	11%	88	+0.2
✕Bryan LaHair 2014 · MLB	31	50→56	59→65	46→40	46	256/319/464	208	330	27	6	30%	8%	119	+2.7	204/265/307	103	277	9	5	28%	8%	61	-1.5	177/237/252	75	243	5	1	28%	7%	36	-2.5
✕Dan Johnson 2011 · MLB	31	43→53	60	45→30	58	236/331/448	212	251	29	3	20%	12%	120	+2.8	221/304/396	175	240	23	2	19%	10%	98	+1.2	211/295/375	163	226	22	1	18%	10%	89	+0.5
✕Michael Saunders 2017 · MLB	30	49→54	55	41→55	51	250/329/447	197	317	22	4	27%	10%	118	+2.7	214/274/355	141	269	15	5	25%	7%	76	-0.4	186/236/294	108	233	10	3	24%	6%	46	-1.2
✕Brad Miller 2021 · MLB	31	46→56	59→60	47→50	50	242/325/458	215	300	27	6	28%	10%	120	+2.8	225/306/402	177	286	23	7	29%	10%	100	+1.3	210/293/370	160	265	22	6	29%	10%	88	+0.2
✕Jonny Gomes 2013 · MLB	32	48→53	57→60	46→50	52	247/343/446	198	308	26	8	28%	11%	124	+3.1	238/332/400	162	306	21	4	27%	11%	109	+2.0	226/323/364	138	295	17	1	27%	11%	99	+0.6
✕Alex Dickerson 2021 · MLB	31	53→56	59→60	47→45	49	275/340/491	216	307	26	4	20%	8%	132	+3.7	230/292/403	173	273	21	4	24%	7%	95	+0.9	209/270/367	159	249	20	1	25%	6%	77	-0.2

Jake Bauers

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps