Robert Suarez
P
Atlanta Braves
+1.1
WAR
Age 35
RHP
6'2" / 210 lbs
MLB
Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 1.0 · 2026
ERA3.34
FIP3.50
xFIP2.40
SIERA2.27
K%25.5%
BB%6.3%
K-BB%19.2%
IP56
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.0peak
2026
K†6565
FB+4.4 (58%)
CH+0.7 (29%)
SI (5%)
CT (13%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | AAA | Saraperos de Saltillo | 43 | 0 | 47 | 182 | 48 | 7 | 1 | 23.2% | 4.0% | 0.5% | 1.71 | 1.95 | +1.6 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 49 | 1 | 52 | 208 | 67 | 22 | 6 | 31.9% | 11.0% | 1.8% | 2.61 | 2.79 | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 32 | 1 | 33 | 137 | 28 | 12 | 5 | 22.2% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 5.23 | 4.18 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 65 | 0 | 65 | 258 | 59 | 15 | 7 | 22.9% | 5.8% | 2.5% | 2.77 | 3.26 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 70 | 0 | 70 | 269 | 75 | 14 | 6 | 27.9% | 5.2% | 2.0% | 2.97 | 2.49 | +2.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 8 | 0 | 8 | 30 | 8 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.17 | — | — |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | ATL | 48 | — | 48 | 203 | 57 | 13 | 5 | 28.1% | 6.3% | 2.7% | 3.26 | 3.36 | +0.9 |
| 2026 Total | 35 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 56 | 233 | 65 | 14 | 5 | 27.9% | 5.9% | 2.3% | 2.97 | 2.90 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | ATL | 52 | — | 52 | 220 | 60 | 14 | 6 | 27.1% | 6.3% | 2.6% | 3.32 | 3.43 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | ATL | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 54 | 13 | 6 | 26.3% | 6.6% | 2.8% | 3.49 | 3.60 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | ATL | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 48 | 13 | 5 | 25.4% | 6.9% | 2.9% | 3.67 | 3.79 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 39 | MLB | ATL | 41 | — | 41 | 172 | 42 | 12 | 5 | 24.6% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 3.85 | 3.98 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 40 | MLB | ATL | 38 | — | 38 | 158 | 38 | 12 | 5 | 23.7% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 4.04 | 4.16 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 267 | 2 | 274 | 1084 | 281 | 69 | 22 | 25.9% | 6.4% | 2.0% | 2.86 | 2.82 | +7.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 195 | 1 | 200 | 791 | 205 | 50 | 16 | 25.9% | 6.4% | 2.0% | 2.86 | 2.82 | +5.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Robert Suarez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.36 | 28.1% | 6.3% | 2.7% | — | 3.60 | 26.3% | 19.7% | 145 | +0.24 | — | — | — |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 2.97 FIP | 35 | SW | 2.97 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.80 | 284 | 71 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 65 |
| Luis Ayala R 2028 · 3.03 FIP | 37 | SW | 3.03 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 1.7% | .270 | 3.25 | 12.1% | 5.9% | 57 | +0.22 | 3.01 | 119 | 65 |
| Tony Pena Jr. R 2026 · 2.89 FIP | 35 | SW | 2.89 | 21.5% | 4.3% | 1.9% | .249 | 3.43 | 10.9% | 6.6% | 22 | +0.54 | 2.80 | 128 | 65 |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.3% | 2.9% | .284 | 2.39 | 27.2% | 22.6% | 112 | -1.59 | 1.43 | 240 | 64 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2029 · 3.55 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.55 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 2.6% | .179 | 4.12 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.57 | 3.55 | 164 | 64 |
| John Axford R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.62 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 2.4% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 197 | 62 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.45 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 3.9% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 208 | 62 |
| Brandon Morrow R 2025 · 2.85 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.85 | 25.4% | 7.4% | 1.8% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.67 | 186 | 62 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.46 | 28.4% | 6.8% | 3.5% | .246 | 3.43 | 25.1% | 17.7% | 60 | -0.03 | 2.00 | 380 | 61 |
| Huascar Brazobán R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.72 | 21.7% | 9.0% | 2.4% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 303 | 61 |
| Josh Lueke R 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 61 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.17 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | .272 | 3.38 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.79 | 2.67 | 295 | 61 |
| Josh Lowey R 2025 · 3.45 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.45 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 426 | 60 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.11 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 186 | 60 |
| Daniel Bard R 2026 · 2.86 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.86 | 25.5% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | 3.60 | 25.3% | 12.0% | 175 | +0.74 | 2.45 | 200 | 60 |
| Chris Martin R 2026 · 3.13 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.13 | 18.2% | 2.8% | 2.2% | .324 | 2.16 | 28.1% | 26.3% | 152 | -0.97 | 1.72 | 402 | 59 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 2.89 FIP | 35 | SW | 2.89 | 22.3% | 7.3% | 1.4% | .248 | 4.29 | 17.8% | 8.8% | 62 | +1.40 | 2.89 | 326 | 58 |
| Matt Bush R 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 36 | SW | 3.58 | 30.3% | 6.6% | 4.0% | .224 | 3.83 | 26.6% | 17.3% | 36 | +0.25 | 2.88 | 249 | 58 |
| Yoshihisa Hirano R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.68 | 26.2% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .303 | 4.90 | 17.5% | 4.8% | 12 | +1.22 | 3.43 | 132 | 57 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Arb-2
MLB Debut 2022
Service 4.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2028
First FA Year 2029
OPT
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-2 | $15M | +1.0 | $8M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2027 | Arb-3 | $15M | +0.9 | $4M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2028 | Ext / FA-deal | $15M | +0.7 | $3M | -$12M |
| Totals | $27M | $15M | -$12M | ||
| Options · projected decision | |||
| 2029 | PLAYER OPT | $8.0M / $0.0M buyout | EXERCISE |
| 2030 | PLAYER OPT | $27.0M / $0.0M buyout | EXERCISE |
| 2031 | PLAYER OPT | $2023.0M / $0.0M buyout | EXERCISE |
| 2032 | PLAYER OPT | $5.0M / $1.0M buyout | EXERCISE |