Jacob Waguespack
P
Nashville Sounds
Age 32
RHP
6'6" / 228 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION34 act + 138 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109100vR 91
ERA3.94
FIP3.93
K%25.1%
BB%12.0%
K-BB%13.1%
ROS IP138
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 172 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
CT (35%)
CU (14%)
FB-0.6 (39%)
CH-2.8 (12%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | GCL Phillies | 4 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 28.0% | 4.0% | 24.0% | 0.0% | 7.94 | 1.24 | — |
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | GCL Phillies | 4 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 28.0% | 4.0% | 24.0% | 0.0% | 7.94 | 1.16 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A | Lakewood BlueClaws | 43 | 0 | 72 | 317 | 72 | 28 | 1 | 0% | 1.7 | 16.8% | 10.4% | 6.4% | 0.6% | 3.52 | 3.31 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A | Lakewood BlueClaws | 43 | 0 | 72 | 317 | 72 | 28 | 1 | 0% | 1.7 | 22.7% | 8.8% | 13.9% | 0.3% | 3.52 | 2.44 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 16 | 105 | 452 | 108 | 37 | 5 | 52% | 3.4 | 18.7% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 1.1% | 3.42 | 3.30 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 16 | 105 | 452 | 108 | 37 | 5 | 52% | 3.4 | 23.9% | 8.2% | 15.7% | 1.1% | 3.42 | 2.72 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 21 | 122 | 538 | 112 | 45 | 7 | 75% | 4.4 | 17.9% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 1.2% | 4.80 | 3.40 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 21 | 122 | 538 | 112 | 45 | 7 | 75% | 4.4 | 20.8% | 8.4% | 12.5% | 1.3% | 4.80 | 3.12 | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 24 | 131 | 571 | 115 | 54 | 21 | 86% | 4.7 | 19.0% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 3.8% | 4.75 | 4.82 | +0.9 |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 24 | 131 | 571 | 115 | 54 | 21 | 86% | 4.7 | 20.1% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 3.7% | 4.75 | 4.67 | +1.1 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 11 | 0 | 18 | 90 | 16 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 17.8% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 2.2% | 8.15 | 4.09 | +0.1 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 11 | 0 | 18 | 90 | 16 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 17.8% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 2.2% | 8.15 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 24 | 10 | 69 | 292 | 74 | 21 | 3 | 42% | 2.9 | 22.3% | 7.6% | 14.8% | 1.0% | 2.86 | 2.71 | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 24 | 10 | 69 | 292 | 74 | 21 | 3 | 42% | 2.9 | 25.3% | 7.2% | 18.2% | 1.0% | 2.86 | 2.44 | — |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 14 | 6 | 33 | 154 | 46 | 15 | 3 | 43% | 2.4 | 26.1% | 10.2% | 15.9% | 2.0% | 5.13 | 3.29 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 14 | 6 | 33 | 154 | 46 | 15 | 3 | 43% | 2.4 | 29.9% | 9.7% | 20.1% | 1.9% | 5.13 | 2.86 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 31 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 25 | 0 | 33 | 127 | 31 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 21.5% | 9.1% | 12.4% | 1.9% | 2.45 | 3.50 | — |
| 2025 | 31 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 25 | 0 | 33 | 127 | 31 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 24.4% | 8.7% | 15.7% | 1.6% | 2.45 | 3.01 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 25 | 0 | 34 | 138 | 41 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 31.9% | 17.3% | 14.6% | 1.2% | 1.59 | 3.26 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | DET | 132 | 0 | 138 | 584 | 147 | 70 | 15 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.1% | 12.0% | 13.1% | 2.6% | 3.94 | 3.93 | +2.4 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | DET | 131 | 0 | 138 | 583 | 146 | 70 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.1% | 12.0% | 13.1% | 2.6% | 3.94 | 3.93 | +2.4 |
| 2026 TOT | 32 | MLB | DET | — | — | 172 | 722 | 188 | 87 | 18 | — | — | 26.0% | 12.1% | 13.9% | 2.5% | 3.48 | 3.80 | +3.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 32 | MLB | DET | — | — | 151 | 636 | 188 | 87 | 18 | — | — | 29.5% | 13.7% | 15.8% | 2.9% | 3.98 | 3.92 | +2.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | DET | 132 | 0 | 138 | 584 | 126 | 63 | 18 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 3.2% | 4.65 | 4.76 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | DET | 120 | 0 | 126 | 532 | 110 | 60 | 18 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.7% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 3.5% | 4.90 | 5.06 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | DET | 108 | 0 | 113 | 477 | 94 | 57 | 18 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.8% | 11.9% | 7.9% | 3.8% | 5.20 | 5.40 | 0.0 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | DET | 125 | 0 | 131 | 553 | 120 | 60 | 17 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 3.2% | 4.65 | 4.76 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | DET | 109 | 0 | 114 | 481 | 100 | 55 | 17 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.7% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 3.5% | 4.90 | 5.06 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | DET | 92 | 0 | 97 | 410 | 81 | 49 | 16 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.8% | 11.9% | 7.9% | 3.8% | 5.20 | 5.40 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 498 | 14 | 599 | 2553 | 545 | 283 | 82 | 3% | 1.2 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.46 | +6.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 166 | 5 | 200 | 853 | 182 | 95 | 27 | 3% | 1.2 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.46 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 233 | 77 | 623 | 2704 | 543 | 261 | 47 | 33% | 2.7 | 20.1% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 1.8% | 4.03 | 3.59 | +13.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 75 | 25 | 200 | 869 | 174 | 84 | 15 | 33% | 2.7 | 20.1% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 1.8% | 4.03 | 3.59 | +4.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jacob Waguespack (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 23.3% | 11.2% | 2.8% | — | 5.05 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 377 | +0.61 | — | — | — |
| Collin McHugh R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.07 | 25.9% | 9.5% | 3.6% | .259 | 2.10 | 28.8% | 24.3% | 133 | -1.97 | 1.79 | 806 | 68 |
| Nick Martinez R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.77 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .286 | 3.65 | 17.5% | 12.9% | 413 | -0.12 | 2.97 | 1,073 | 66 |
| Josh Zeid R 2024 · 5.41 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.41 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.5% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 265 | 66 |
| Andrew Cashner R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.44 | 17.0% | 9.1% | 3.0% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 786 | 64 |
| Joe Blanton R 2028 · 3.30 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.30 | 22.4% | 4.6% | 2.7% | .272 | 3.78 | 23.5% | 17.0% | 124 | +0.48 | 3.13 | 240 | 63 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 32 | SW | 5.02 | 14.0% | 6.6% | 4.1% | .268 | 5.32 | 17.5% | 9.7% | 166 | +0.30 | 3.84 | 567 | 59 |
| Sam LeCure R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.27 | 16.6% | 6.5% | 3.2% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 171 | 59 |
| Tom Koehler R 2025 · 4.71 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.71 | 22.4% | 9.0% | 4.3% | .298 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 474 | 59 |
| Casey Coleman R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SW | 5.00 | 18.4% | 9.0% | 4.2% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.86 | 306 | 57 |
| Dillon Gee R 2025 · 3.88 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.88 | 18.0% | 5.9% | 2.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 380 | 57 |
| Tim Dillard R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 56 |
| Clay Buchholz R 2025 · 4.87 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.87 | 15.8% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .260 | 4.11 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 180 | -0.76 | 2.49 | 433 | 56 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.31 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .319 | 2.62 | 28.5% | 21.7% | 186 | -1.69 | 2.01 | 380 | 55 |
| Ivan Maldonado R 2029 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.91 | 12.8% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .269 | 5.68 | 6.4% | -3.3% | 104 | +0.77 | 4.91 | 172 | 55 |
| Angel Castro R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 55 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.94 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 3.0% | .292 | 3.77 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 55 | -0.17 | 3.15 | 272 | 54 |
| Toru Murata R 2025 · 3.55 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.55 | 12.9% | 5.7% | 1.5% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 267 | 54 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 20.8% | 9.0% | 1.7% | .338 | 4.07 | 24.4% | 11.0% | 97 | +0.63 | 2.73 | 410 | 54 |
| Jason Berken R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.31 | 11.5% | 8.3% | 2.1% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 219 | 53 |
| Erik Davis R 2025 · 3.44 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.44 | 17.4% | 8.9% | 1.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 227 | 53 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 132 | 21.5% | 11.3% | 1.26 | 4.77 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| Nate Karns ('17) | 3 | 96 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 1.22 | 4.24 |