Jacob Waguespack

P Detroit Tigers

Age 33 RHP 6'6" / 228 lbs MLB peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	30	MIX3 levels	14	6	33	5.13	2.86	29.9%	9.7%	0.7	K 25.7% · BB 9.7% · FIP 3.29
2025	31	AAAPHI	25	0	33	2.45	3.01	24.4%	8.7%	—	K 21.0% · BB 7.8% · FIP 3.32
2026	32	MIX2 levels	51	1	69	2.23	3.89	24.8%	12.0%	0.5	K 23.1% · BB 11.5% · FIP 4.08
2027PROJ	33	MLBDET	44	0	46	4.32	4.58	22.6%	11.7%	-0.0
2028PROJ95% MLB	34	MLBDET	44	0	46	4.66	4.88	21.7%	12.2%	-0.2
2029PROJ91% MLB	35	MLBDET	29	0	30	5.00	5.22	20.7%	12.7%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.2 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs90

K%29

FB Velo27

Form2.30 ERA (proj 4.32) · K 28.3% (proj 22.6%) · BB 11.7% (proj 11.7%) ▲ last 60d · 16 IP through Oct 27

CompsChris Jakubauskas (age 32) · Angel Sánchez (age 33) · Keiichi Yabu (age 36)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10698vR 90

ERA4.32

FIP4.58

K%22.6%

BB%11.7%

K-BB%10.9%

Proj IP46

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL3535

CMD3535

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2792.9

Whiff%

p5125.4%

p2919.1%

xwOBA vs

p900.273

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	21	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies	4	0	6	25	7	1	0	0%	1.4	28.0%	4.0%	24.0%	0.0%	7.94	1.24	—
2015	21	ROK RAW	GCL Phillies	4	0	6	25	7	1	0	0%	1.4	28.0%	4.0%	24.0%	0.0%	7.94	1.16	—
2016	22	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	43	0	72	317	72	28	1	0%	1.7	16.8%	10.4%	6.4%	0.5%	3.52	3.26	—
2016	22	A RAW	Lakewood BlueClaws	43	0	72	317	72	28	1	0%	1.7	22.7%	8.8%	13.9%	0.3%	3.52	2.44	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	16	105	452	108	37	5	52%	3.4	18.7%	9.2%	9.5%	1.2%	3.42	3.36	—
2017	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	16	105	452	108	37	5	52%	3.4	23.9%	8.2%	15.7%	1.1%	3.42	2.72	—
2018	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	21	122	538	112	45	7	75%	4.4	17.9%	8.9%	9.0%	1.3%	4.80	3.45	—
2018	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	21	122	538	112	45	7	75%	4.4	20.8%	8.4%	12.5%	1.3%	4.80	3.12	—
2019	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	24	131	571	115	54	21	86%	4.7	19.0%	9.7%	9.4%	3.8%	4.75	4.82	+0.9
2019	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	24	131	571	115	54	21	86%	4.7	20.1%	9.5%	10.7%	3.7%	4.75	4.67	+1.1
2020	26	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	11	0	18	90	16	9	2	0%	1.6	17.8%	10.0%	7.8%	2.2%	8.15	4.09	+0.1
2020	26	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	11	0	18	90	16	9	2	0%	1.6	17.8%	10.0%	7.8%	2.2%	8.15	4.29	+0.1
2021	27	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	24	10	69	292	74	21	3	42%	2.9	22.3%	7.6%	14.8%	1.0%	2.86	2.75	—
2021	27	AAA RAW	Buffalo Bisons	24	10	69	292	74	21	3	42%	2.9	25.3%	7.2%	18.2%	1.0%	2.86	2.44	—
2024	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	6	33	154	46	15	3	43%	2.4	25.7%	9.7%	16.0%	2.1%	5.13	3.29	+0.5
2024	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	6	33	154	46	15	3	43%	2.4	25.7%	9.7%	16.0%	2.1%	5.13	3.29	+0.5
2024	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	6	33	154	46	15	3	43%	2.4	29.9%	9.7%	20.1%	1.9%	5.13	2.86	+0.7
2025	31	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	25	0	33	127	31	11	2	0%	1.3	21.0%	7.8%	13.2%	1.8%	2.45	3.32	—
2025	31	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	25	0	33	127	31	11	2	0%	1.3	21.0%	7.8%	13.2%	1.8%	2.45	3.32	—
2025	31	AAA RAW	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	25	0	33	127	31	11	2	0%	1.3	24.4%	8.7%	15.7%	1.6%	2.45	3.01	—
2026	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	1	69	274	68	33	7	2%	1.3	23.1%	11.5%	11.6%	2.7%	2.23	4.08	+0.4
2026	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	1	69	274	68	33	7	2%	1.3	23.1%	11.5%	11.6%	2.7%	2.23	4.08	+0.4
2026	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	1	69	274	68	33	7	2%	1.3	24.8%	12.0%	12.8%	2.6%	2.23	3.89	+0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			66	15	153	659	125	66	21	23%	2.3	19.0%	10.0%	9.0%	3.2%	4.30	4.55	+0.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	DET	44	0	46	194	44	23	5	0%	1.0	22.6%	11.7%	10.9%	2.8%	4.32	4.58	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	DET	46	0	48	205	44	25	6	0%	1.1	21.7%	12.2%	9.5%	3.1%	4.66	4.88	-0.2
2029	35	MLB MLE	DET	32	0	33	140	29	18	5	0%	1.0	20.7%	12.7%	8.0%	3.4%	5.00	5.22	-0.2
2028	34	MLB CTX	DET	44	0	46	194	42	24	6	0%	1.0	21.7%	12.2%	9.5%	3.1%	4.66	4.88	-0.2
2029	35	MLB CTX	DET	29	0	30	127	26	16	4	0%	1.0	20.7%	12.7%	8.0%	3.4%	5.00	5.22	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		139	15	229	981	194	106	31	11%	1.6	19.7%	10.8%	8.9%	3.2%	4.47	4.56	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		121	13	200	857	169	93	27	11%	1.7	19.7%	10.8%	8.9%	3.2%	4.47	4.56	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		259	78	657	2840	561	266	54	30%	2.5	19.7%	9.4%	10.4%	1.9%	3.97	3.66	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		79	24	200	864	171	81	16	30%	2.5	19.7%	9.4%	10.4%	1.9%	3.97	3.66	-0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAANashville Sounds · 22 IPFIP 2.73 → 3.01 (+0.28)K% 36.3% → 31.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.26%	—	×0.860	31.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.48%	—	×0.900	14.84%
HR / BF /BF	1.10%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.21%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.73 → 3.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 33 IPFIP 3.00 → 3.32 (+0.32)K% 24.4% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.41%	—	×0.860	20.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.66%	—	×0.900	7.80%
HR / BF /BF	1.57%	÷0.947	×1.100	1.83%

Result: FIP 3.00 → 3.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAADurham Bulls · 22 IPFIP 2.12 → 2.48 (+0.36)K% 32.3% → 27.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.32%	—	×0.860	27.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.05%	—	×0.900	4.55%
HR / BF /BF	2.02%	÷1.061	×1.100	2.09%

Result: FIP 2.12 → 2.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAABuffalo Bisons · 69 IPFIP 2.43 → 2.75 (+0.31)K% 25.3% → 22.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.34%	—	×0.880	22.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.19%	—	×1.050	7.55%
HR / BF /BF	1.03%	÷1.081	×1.100	1.05%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).

Result: FIP 2.43 → 2.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAABuffalo Bisons · 53 IPFIP 4.67 → 5.17 (+0.50)K% 22.0% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.03%	—	×0.880	19.39%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.59%	—	×1.050	11.12%
HR / BF /BF	3.81%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.20%

Result: FIP 4.67 → 5.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAABuffalo Bisons · 93 IPFIP 3.27 → 3.54 (+0.27)K% 20.1% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.15%	—	×0.880	17.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.21%	—	×1.050	7.57%
HR / BF /BF	1.74%	÷1.080	×1.100	1.77%

Result: FIP 3.27 → 3.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAReading Fightin Phils · 29 IPFIP 2.67 → 3.18 (+0.51)K% 22.8% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.79%	—	×0.810	18.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.76%	—	×1.100	12.94%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.164	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 133).

Result: FIP 2.67 → 3.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Clearwater Threshers · 68 IPFIP 2.50 → 3.24 (+0.74)K% 25.3% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.26%	—	×0.770	19.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.61%	—	×1.150	8.75%
HR / BF /BF	1.04%	÷1.058	×1.250	1.23%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP 2.50 → 3.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jacob Waguespack (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.58	22.6%	11.7%	2.8%	—	5.02	21.3%	8.9%	82	+0.44	—	—	—
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	66
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	65
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	65
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	64
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	63
Tony Barnette R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	22.6%	7.1%	2.7%	.335	2.61	25.0%	20.2%	26	-0.95	2.61	144	63
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	63
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	62
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	61
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	61
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	61
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	2.16	306	60
Jake Sanchez R 2023 · 4.70 FIP	33	SU	4.70	20.3%	10.6%	3.6%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	1.86	361	59
Jhan Mariñez R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	33	SU	5.36	17.4%	11.4%	4.2%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	253	59
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	59
D.J. Carrasco R 2010 · 3.45 FIP	33	SU	3.45	19.7%	9.4%	1.5%	.275	4.47	12.0%	6.7%	49	+1.02	3.23	490	59
Leo Rosales R 2015 · 3.99 FIP	34	SU	3.99	18.1%	10.8%	1.9%	.261	4.24	7.8%	-0.4%	22	+0.25	3.85	130	59
Chad Fox R 2003 · 3.70 FIP	32	SU	3.70	23.2%	13.6%	1.5%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	2.82	194	59
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2019 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	12.2%	9.1%	3.3%	.420	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	203	59
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2016 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	22.7%	10.4%	2.0%	.255	4.41	24.1%	13.8%	97	+0.80	3.34	335	58

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	56	20.2%	11.0%	1.21	4.45
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Josh Lindblom ('21)	1.0	52	22.1%	9.6%	1.25	4.78
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57