Alimber Santa — OGILVIE

Alimber Santa P Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 23 RHP 5'10" / 228 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2029 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION58 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.59

FIP4.59

K%21.0%

BB%15.0%

K-BB%6.0%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5050

CTRL—40

CMD3035

K†5055

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6495.5

Whiff%

p1018.5%

p1015.3%

xwOBA vs

p900.267

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	9	4	21	88	22	8	2	44%	2.3	17.0%	11.4%	5.6%	3.2%	3.43	4.85	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	9	4	21	88	22	8	2	44%	2.3	25.0%	9.1%	15.9%	2.3%	3.43	3.39	—
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	1	2	13	4	2	0	33%	0.7	30.8%	15.4%	15.4%	0.0%	13.50	2.45	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	1	2	13	4	2	0	33%	0.7	30.8%	15.4%	15.4%	0.0%	13.50	2.10	—
2023	20	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	26	14	87	413	119	74	5	54%	3.4	21.3%	21.1%	0.2%	1.6%	5.98	4.85	—
2023	20	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	26	14	87	413	119	74	5	54%	3.4	21.3%	21.1%	0.2%	1.6%	5.98	4.85	—
2023	20	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	26	14	87	413	119	74	5	54%	3.4	28.8%	17.9%	10.9%	1.2%	5.98	3.66	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	4	40	185	49	23	6	21%	2.1	19.9%	14.3%	5.6%	4.4%	6.47	5.63	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	4	40	185	49	23	6	21%	2.1	19.9%	14.3%	5.6%	4.4%	6.47	5.63	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	4	40	185	49	23	6	21%	2.1	26.5%	12.4%	14.1%	3.2%	6.47	4.31	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	70	294	82	39	2	0%	1.5	22.7%	13.5%	9.2%	0.8%	2.31	3.32	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	70	294	82	39	2	0%	1.5	22.7%	13.5%	9.2%	0.8%	2.31	3.32	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	70	294	82	39	2	0%	1.5	27.9%	13.3%	14.6%	0.7%	2.31	2.80	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			10	0	15	59	9	6	1	0%	1.5	15.3%	10.2%	5.1%	1.7%	1.17	3.95	+0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	55	0	58	255	53	27	6	0%	1.1	17.9%	9.8%	8.1%	2.6%	4.19	4.23	—
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	55	0	58	255	53	27	6	0%	1.1	17.9%	9.8%	8.1%	2.6%	4.19	4.23	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AAA RAW	HOU	45	0	43	196	44	21	5	0%	0.9	22.4%	10.7%	11.7%	2.6%	5.27	3.96	—
2026	23	MLB RAW	HOU	10	0	15	59	9	6	1	0%	1.5	15.3%	10.2%	5.1%	1.7%	1.17	4.03	+0.1
SO FAR	23	MLB RAW	HOU	10	0	15	59	9	6	1	0%	1.5	15.3%	10.2%	5.1%	1.7%	1.17	4.03	+0.1
ROS	23	MLB MLE	HOU	5	0	5	22	5	3	1	0%	1.0	21.0%	15.0%	6.0%	2.5%	4.59	4.59	-0.0
ROS	23	MLB CTX	HOU	5	0	5	21	4	3	1	0%	1.0	21.0%	15.0%	6.0%	2.5%	4.59	4.59	-0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	HOU	—	—	63	277	58	30	7	—	—	20.8%	10.9%	9.9%	2.4%	4.22	4.26	+0.2
FULL	23	MLB A+C	HOU	—	—	21	87	58	30	7	—	—	66.5%	35.0%	31.5%	7.5%	13.00	6.06	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	HOU	62	0	65	273	59	37	7	0%	1.0	21.7%	13.7%	8.0%	2.4%	4.78	4.70	-0.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	HOU	62	0	65	276	61	35	7	0%	1.1	22.2%	12.7%	9.5%	2.4%	4.64	4.56	-0.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	HOU	62	0	65	276	62	35	7	0%	1.1	22.4%	12.5%	9.9%	2.5%	4.57	4.53	+0.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	HOU	61	0	64	272	61	34	7	0%	1.1	22.4%	12.5%	10.0%	2.5%	4.56	4.56	-0.0
2027	24	MLB CTX	HOU	58	0	61	258	56	35	6	0%	1.1	21.7%	13.7%	8.0%	2.4%	4.78	4.70	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	HOU	59	0	62	262	58	33	6	0%	1.1	22.2%	12.7%	9.5%	2.4%	4.64	4.56	-0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	HOU	59	0	62	262	59	33	6	0%	1.1	22.4%	12.5%	9.9%	2.5%	4.57	4.53	+0.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	HOU	58	0	61	258	58	32	7	0%	1.1	22.4%	12.5%	10.0%	2.5%	4.56	4.56	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		250	0	267	1123	245	143	27	0%	1.1	21.8%	12.7%	9.1%	2.4%	4.44	4.20	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		187	0	200	840	183	107	20	0%	1.1	21.8%	12.7%	9.1%	2.4%	4.44	4.20	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		158	23	279	1248	256	190	26	15%	1.8	20.5%	15.3%	5.3%	2.1%	4.62	4.45	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		113	17	200	896	184	137	19	15%	1.8	20.5%	15.3%	5.3%	2.1%	4.62	4.45	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alimber Santa (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.00	22.0%	16.0%	2.5%	—	4.60	22.1%	9.1%	195	-0.40	—	—	—
Pat Light R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	20.9%	14.5%	2.1%	.270	4.37	16.4%	2.8%	110	+0.03	4.10	172	91
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	89
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	89
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.76	23.1%	12.3%	156	-0.79	3.23	254	88
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	88
Ben Hecht R 2018 · 4.39 FIP	23	SU	4.39	18.3%	14.4%	1.9%	.265	4.51	22.7%	9.8%	58	+0.12	4.39	155	88
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	88
Jake Gilbert R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	24	SU	4.14	22.1%	15.2%	1.8%	.314	4.65	18.2%	2.0%	53	+0.51	4.14	103	88
Alaska Abney R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.301	3.89	17.4%	7.9%	104	-1.03	3.38	207	88
Jhonny Polanco R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	23	SW	4.75	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.06	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.69	4.06	116	88
Matt Brill R 2018 · 4.90 FIP	23	SU	4.90	20.8%	16.3%	2.7%	.248	3.89	19.4%	4.9%	60	-1.01	3.73	161	88
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	87
Gabriel Ponce R 2022 · 4.45 FIP	23	SU	4.45	20.5%	14.5%	2.3%	.238	4.61	23.9%	9.0%	61	+0.16	4.45	161	87
Stefan Raeth R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	22	SU	4.62	18.0%	15.4%	2.0%	.309	4.73	17.5%	8.3%	124	+0.11	4.51	173	87
Jhondaniel Medina R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	23	SU	4.54	19.3%	13.9%	2.4%	.261	5.25	19.3%	4.4%	35	+0.71	4.39	167	87
Bailey Dees R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	23	SU	4.26	21.3%	13.2%	2.4%	.248	4.35	21.3%	9.7%	278	+0.09	3.41	330	86
Luis Ramirez R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	23	SU	4.68	23.1%	15.9%	2.8%	.278	3.71	24.0%	11.4%	53	-0.97	3.71	104	86
William Kempner R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	22	SU	4.02	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.22	28.3%	14.7%	112	-0.80	3.17	173	86
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	86
Sal Biasi R 2019 · 5.22 FIP	23	SU	5.22	20.1%	15.8%	3.3%	.295	7.66	15.3%	-0.2%	23	+2.44	4.68	188	86

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	63	22.2%	13.4%	0.95	4.70
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22