Alimber Santa — OGILVIE

Alimber Santa P Sugar Land Space Cowboys

+0.1 WAR

Age 23 RHP 5'10" / 228 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.6 · 2029

ERA4.59

FIP4.59

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%22.6%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%9.4%

IP62

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.6peak

2029

K†5555

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	FCL Astros	9	4	21	88	22	8	2	17.0%	11.4%	3.2%	3.43	4.85	+0.0
2022	19	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	3	1	2	13	4	2	0	—	—	—	13.50	—	—
2023	20	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	26	14	87	413	119	74	5	21.3%	21.1%	1.6%	5.98	4.85	+0.3
2024	21	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	19	4	40	185	49	23	6	19.9%	14.3%	4.4%	6.47	5.64	-0.3
2025	22	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	46	0	70	294	82	39	2	23.0%	14.3%	0.7%	2.31	3.38	+1.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	6	0	6	23	7	2	0	—	—	—	1.50	—	—
ROS	23	MLB	HOU	11	11	62	261	59	35	6	22.6%	13.2%	2.5%	4.59	4.59	+0.3
2026 Total	23	MLB	HOU	—	—	68	284	66	37	6	23.3%	12.8%	2.3%	4.32	4.18	+0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	HOU	12	12	63	268	62	32	7	23.3%	11.8%	2.5%	4.45	4.37	+0.4
2028	25	MLB	HOU	12	12	64	271	64	30	7	23.6%	10.9%	2.5%	4.33	4.24	+0.5
2029	26	MLB	HOU	12	12	64	271	65	29	7	23.8%	10.8%	2.5%	4.27	4.22	+0.6
2030	27	MLB	HOU	12	12	64	269	64	29	7	23.8%	10.8%	2.6%	4.25	4.23	+0.5
2031	28	MLB	HOU	11	11	63	265	63	29	7	23.8%	10.8%	2.6%	4.26	4.26	+0.5
2032	29	MLB	HOU	11	11	61	259	61	28	7	23.7%	10.9%	2.6%	4.29	4.31	+0.5
2033	30	MLB	HOU	60	—	60	251	59	28	7	23.5%	11.0%	2.7%	4.34	4.37	+0.4
2034	31	MLB	HOU	57	—	57	242	56	27	7	23.2%	11.1%	2.8%	4.40	4.44	+0.3
2035	32	MLB	HOU	55	—	55	233	53	26	7	23.0%	11.3%	2.8%	4.48	4.53	+0.3
2036	33	MLB	HOU	53	—	53	222	50	25	7	22.7%	11.5%	2.9%	4.57	4.63	+0.2
2037	34	MLB	HOU	50	—	50	211	47	25	6	22.3%	11.7%	3.0%	4.67	4.74	+0.1
2038	35	MLB	HOU	47	—	47	199	44	24	6	21.9%	11.9%	3.1%	4.78	4.86	+0.0
2039	36	MLB	HOU	44	—	44	186	40	23	6	21.5%	12.1%	3.3%	4.91	4.99	-0.0
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			109	23	227	1016	219	170	20	21.5%	16.7%	1.9%	4.65	4.46	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—			96	20	200	896	193	150	18	21.5%	16.7%	1.9%	4.65	4.46	+1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alimber Santa (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.59	22.6%	13.2%	2.5%	—	4.28	23.6%	12.4%	192	-0.31	—	—	—
Alec Barger R 2026 · 4.51 FIP	23	SW	4.51	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.34	3.86	242	95
Luis Ramirez R 2026 · 4.69 FIP	23	SW	4.69	23.1%	15.9%	2.8%	.278	3.73	24.0%	11.4%	53	-0.96	3.73	104	94
Craig Schlitter R 2027 · 4.61 FIP	24	SW	4.61	22.7%	15.4%	2.7%	.298	4.70	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.09	4.23	222	94
Tanner Jacobson R 2026 · 4.10 FIP	23	SW	4.10	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.90	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.10	168	94
James Proctor R 2026 · 3.98 FIP	23	SW	3.98	22.0%	15.2%	1.5%	.277	4.39	14.0%	1.5%	48	+0.41	3.98	109	92
Aaron Kurcz R 2027 · 4.00 FIP	24	SW	4.00	22.4%	13.6%	2.0%	.331	4.03	16.1%	8.0%	105	+0.03	3.31	213	91
Carlos Contreras R 2027 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	22.2%	15.6%	2.0%	.271	4.48	11.9%	2.4%	40	+0.17	4.31	107	91
Bailey Dees R 2026 · 4.27 FIP	23	SW	4.27	21.3%	13.2%	2.4%	.248	4.37	21.4%	9.6%	278	+0.10	3.41	330	90
Brandon Johnson R 2027 · 4.91 FIP	24	SW	4.91	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.68	22.3%	12.1%	127	-0.23	3.38	188	90
Jhonny Polanco R 2026 · 4.74 FIP	23	SW	4.74	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.09	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.65	4.09	116	90
Max Alba R 2027 · 4.50 FIP	24	SW	4.50	20.6%	12.6%	2.8%	.290	4.91	17.8%	11.6%	162	+0.41	4.50	217	90
Pat Light R 2027 · 4.34 FIP	24	SW	4.34	20.9%	14.5%	2.1%	.270	4.39	16.4%	2.8%	110	+0.05	4.15	172	90
Mason Vinyard R 2027 · 3.74 FIP	24	SW	3.74	22.7%	13.6%	1.5%	.270	4.00	22.6%	8.2%	94	+0.26	3.60	154	90
Jarret Whorff R 2027 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	3.96	20.3%	11.1%	143	-0.28	3.84	206	90
Matt Brill R 2026 · 4.89 FIP	23	SW	4.89	20.8%	16.3%	2.7%	.248	3.88	19.4%	4.9%	60	-1.01	3.74	161	89
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2027 · 4.58 FIP	24	SW	4.58	21.0%	13.2%	2.9%	.341	4.72	15.7%	4.0%	343	+0.14	4.04	404	89
Isaac Stebens R 2026 · 4.16 FIP	23	SW	4.16	21.1%	15.5%	1.6%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	102	89
Sandy Lugo R 2026 · 4.39 FIP	23	SW	4.39	22.0%	14.8%	2.3%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	146	89
William Kempner R 2025 · 4.04 FIP	22	SW	4.04	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.24	27.3%	11.8%	68	-0.80	3.24	129	89
Noah Denoyer R 2026 · 4.50 FIP	23	SW	4.50	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.24	25.9%	14.9%	121	-0.26	3.32	181	89

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2031	Arb-3	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$2M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.4	$2M	+$1.0M
Totals		$5M		$14M	+$8M