Alimber Santa

P Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 24 RHP 5'10" / 228 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2029

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX3 levels	19	4	40	6.47	4.31	26.5%	12.4%	—	K 19.9% · BB 14.3% · FIP 5.63
2025	22	MIX2 levels	46	0	70	2.31	2.80	27.9%	13.3%	—	K 22.9% · BB 13.5% · FIP 3.30
2026	23	MIX2 levels	58	0	61	3.98	3.97	20.9%	10.8%	0.4	K 18.4% · BB 10.0% · FIP 4.14
2027PROJ	24	MLBHOU	43	0	45	4.60	4.84	19.7%	12.8%	-0.1
2028PROJ78% MLB	25	MLBHOU	36	0	38	4.64	4.69	20.5%	12.0%	-0.1
2029PROJ83% MLB	26	MLBHOU	34	0	36	4.63	4.64	20.9%	11.8%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.4 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs90

FB Velo64

K%10

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 2.9, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 89%

CompsFrancisco Del Rosario (age 25) · Grayson Thurman (age 24) · Luis Vizcaino (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.60

FIP4.84

K%19.7%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%6.9%

Proj IP65

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6495.5

Whiff%

p1018.5%

p1015.3%

xwOBA vs

p900.267

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	9	4	21	88	22	8	2	44%	2.3	17.0%	11.4%	5.6%	3.2%	3.43	4.85	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	9	4	21	88	22	8	2	44%	2.3	25.0%	9.1%	15.9%	2.3%	3.43	3.39	—
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	1	2	13	4	2	0	33%	0.7	30.8%	15.4%	15.4%	0.0%	13.50	2.45	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	1	2	13	4	2	0	33%	0.7	30.8%	15.4%	15.4%	0.0%	13.50	2.10	—
2023	20	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	26	14	87	413	119	74	5	54%	3.4	21.3%	21.1%	0.2%	1.6%	5.98	4.85	—
2023	20	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	26	14	87	413	119	74	5	54%	3.4	28.8%	17.9%	10.9%	1.2%	5.98	3.66	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	4	40	185	49	23	6	21%	2.1	19.9%	14.3%	5.6%	4.4%	6.47	5.63	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	4	40	185	49	23	6	21%	2.1	19.9%	14.3%	5.6%	4.4%	6.47	5.63	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	4	40	185	49	23	6	21%	2.1	26.5%	12.4%	14.1%	3.2%	6.47	4.31	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	70	294	82	39	2	0%	1.5	22.9%	13.5%	9.4%	0.8%	2.31	3.30	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	70	294	82	39	2	0%	1.5	22.9%	13.5%	9.4%	0.8%	2.31	3.30	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	70	294	82	39	2	0%	1.5	27.9%	13.3%	14.6%	0.7%	2.31	2.80	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	58	0	61	268	56	29	6	0%	1.1	18.4%	10.0%	8.5%	2.4%	3.98	4.14	+0.3
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	58	0	61	268	56	29	6	0%	1.1	18.4%	10.0%	8.5%	2.4%	3.98	4.14	+0.3
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	58	0	61	268	56	29	6	0%	1.1	20.9%	10.8%	10.1%	2.2%	3.98	3.97	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			10	0	15	59	9	6	1	0%	1.5	15.3%	10.2%	5.1%	1.7%	1.17	3.95	+0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	HOU	43	0	45	190	37	24	5	0%	1.0	19.7%	12.8%	6.9%	2.6%	4.60	4.84	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	HOU	47	0	49	207	42	25	5	0%	1.0	20.5%	12.0%	8.5%	2.6%	4.64	4.69	-0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	HOU	42	0	44	185	39	22	5	0%	1.0	20.9%	11.8%	9.2%	2.6%	4.63	4.64	-0.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	HOU	39	0	41	173	36	20	5	0%	1.1	21.0%	11.7%	9.3%	2.7%	4.65	4.66	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	HOU	36	0	38	160	33	19	4	0%	1.1	20.5%	12.0%	8.5%	2.6%	4.64	4.69	-0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	HOU	34	0	36	152	32	18	4	0%	1.1	20.9%	11.8%	9.2%	2.6%	4.63	4.64	-0.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	HOU	33	0	35	148	31	17	4	0%	1.1	21.0%	11.7%	9.3%	2.7%	4.65	4.66	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		115	0	125	523	105	61	13	0%	1.1	20.2%	11.6%	8.5%	2.5%	4.22	4.26	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		183	0	200	835	168	97	21	0%	1.1	20.2%	11.6%	8.5%	2.5%	4.22	4.26	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		161	23	282	1261	261	192	26	14%	1.7	20.7%	15.2%	5.4%	2.1%	4.57	4.43	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		114	16	200	895	185	136	19	14%	1.7	20.7%	15.2%	5.4%	2.1%	4.57	4.43	-0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 46 IPFIP 3.91 → 4.17 (+0.26)K% 22.5% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.49%	—	×0.860	19.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.00%	—	×0.900	9.90%
HR / BF /BF	2.39%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.63%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.91 → 4.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 57 IPFIP 2.52 → 3.16 (+0.64)K% 27.9% → 22.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.88%	—	×0.810	22.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.18%	—	×1.100	11.19%
HR / BF /BF	0.88%	÷1.057	×1.200	1.01%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 111).

Result: FIP 2.52 → 3.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 13 IPFIP 3.72 → 3.75 (+0.03)K% 27.9% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.94%	—	×0.860	24.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	23.53%	—	×0.900	21.18%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.961	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.72 → 3.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 22 IPFIP 6.95 → 8.12 (+1.18)K% 16.1% → 13.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.07%	—	×0.810	13.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.86%	—	×1.100	19.64%
HR / BF /BF	5.36%	÷0.970	×1.200	6.62%

Result: FIP 6.95 → 8.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 16 IPFIP -0.25 → 0.81 (+1.06)K% 44.8% → 33.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	44.83%	—	×0.740	33.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.45%	—	×1.180	4.07%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.118	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 124).

Result: FIP -0.25 → 0.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 87 IPFIP 3.60 → 4.85 (+1.25)K% 28.8% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.81%	—	×0.740	21.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.92%	—	×1.180	21.14%
HR / BF /BF	1.21%	÷0.993	×1.300	1.58%

Result: FIP 3.60 → 4.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKFCL Astros · 21 IPFIP 3.39 → 4.85 (+1.46)K% 25.0% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.680	17.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.250	11.36%
HR / BF /BF	2.27%	÷1.000	×1.400	3.18%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.39 → 4.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alimber Santa (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.6%	—	4.66	20.8%	9.0%	134	-0.18	—	—	—
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	87
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	86
Luis Vizcaino R 2000 · 4.11 FIP	25	SU	4.11	18.8%	11.5%	2.1%	.354	4.31	22.7%	14.9%	180	+0.20	3.07	564	85
Julio Mateo R 2002 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	16.0%	12.8%	2.1%	.277	4.23	17.5%	13.8%	232	-0.31	3.42	318	85
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	85
Michael Bowden R 2011 · 4.93 FIP	24	SU	4.93	18.9%	12.2%	3.4%	.271	4.22	17.1%	8.1%	77	-0.71	3.21	269	85
Garrett Apker R 2024 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	19.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.288	8.46	15.4%	-7.6%	11	+4.45	4.01	101	84
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	84
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	84
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	84
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.29	16.7%	9.8%	248	+0.82	4.47	303	83
Reid Schaller R 2021 · 4.60 FIP	24	SU	4.60	20.2%	13.1%	2.8%	.298	3.89	22.0%	11.4%	90	-0.71	3.61	186	83
Cameron Gann R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	21.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.296	5.36	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.14	3.58	146	83
Armando Ruiz R 2017 · 4.26 FIP	24	SU	4.26	18.4%	11.4%	2.3%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	113	82
Chad Smith R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	24	SU	4.32	19.8%	13.5%	2.1%	.274	3.93	25.2%	12.6%	86	-0.39	3.31	258	82
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	82
Marc Brakeman R 2018 · 4.67 FIP	24	SU	4.67	18.3%	13.7%	2.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	156	82
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	82
Casey Fien R 2009 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	17.0%	11.3%	3.8%	.306	2.79	22.7%	19.2%	35	-2.38	2.79	308	82
Luke Stofel R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	22	SU	4.26	17.6%	12.4%	2.0%	.328	4.42	14.0%	1.8%	147	+0.16	4.26	188	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	53	20.1%	12.0%	0.99	4.38
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Rich Loiselle ('01)	1.1	56	17.2%	12.0%	0.88	4.38
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44
Jose Paniagua ('03)	1.8	60	17.3%	11.8%	1.01	4.49
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*