Alimber Santa
P
Sugar Land Space Cowboys
Age 23
RHP
5'10" / 228 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2028
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION40 act + 26 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 103
ERA4.51
FIP4.51
K%22.1%
BB%15.8%
K-BB%6.4%
ROS IP26
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP
Grades · Statcast · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6495.5
Whiff%
p1018.5%
K%
p1015.3%
xwOBA vs
p900.268
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | FCL Astros | 9 | 4 | 21 | 88 | 22 | 8 | 2 | 44% | 2.3 | 17.0% | 11.4% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 3.43 | 4.85 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | FCL Astros | 9 | 4 | 21 | 88 | 22 | 8 | 2 | 44% | 2.3 | 25.0% | 9.1% | 15.9% | 2.3% | 3.43 | 3.39 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 33% | 0.7 | 30.8% | 15.4% | 15.4% | 0.0% | 13.50 | 2.45 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 33% | 0.7 | 30.8% | 15.4% | 15.4% | 0.0% | 13.50 | 2.10 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 26 | 14 | 87 | 413 | 119 | 74 | 5 | 54% | 3.4 | 21.3% | 21.1% | 0.2% | 1.6% | 5.98 | 4.85 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 26 | 14 | 87 | 413 | 119 | 74 | 5 | 54% | 3.4 | 28.8% | 17.9% | 10.9% | 1.2% | 5.98 | 3.66 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 4 | 40 | 185 | 49 | 23 | 6 | 21% | 2.1 | 19.9% | 14.3% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 6.47 | 5.71 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 4 | 40 | 185 | 49 | 23 | 6 | 21% | 2.1 | 26.5% | 12.4% | 14.1% | 3.2% | 6.47 | 4.31 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 70 | 294 | 82 | 39 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 23.0% | 14.3% | 8.7% | 0.7% | 2.31 | 3.37 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 70 | 294 | 82 | 39 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 27.9% | 13.3% | 14.6% | 0.7% | 2.31 | 2.80 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | Houston Astros | 34 | 0 | 40 | 160 | 38 | 15 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.6% | 9.7% | 11.9% | 1.3% | 1.59 | 3.22 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | HOU | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 24 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 15.8% | 6.4% | 2.3% | 4.51 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | HOU | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 24 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 15.8% | 6.4% | 2.3% | 4.51 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 66 | 270 | 62 | 32 | 5 | — | — | 23.1% | 12.0% | 11.1% | 1.7% | 2.75 | 3.73 | +0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 41 | 175 | 62 | 32 | 5 | — | — | 35.7% | 18.5% | 17.2% | 2.6% | 4.36 | 3.87 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 58 | 38 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 14.2% | 7.7% | 2.4% | 4.83 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 60 | 36 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 13.2% | 9.2% | 2.4% | 4.67 | 4.60 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 57 | 0 | 60 | 253 | 56 | 36 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 14.2% | 7.7% | 2.4% | 4.83 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 58 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 58 | 34 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 13.2% | 9.2% | 2.4% | 4.67 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 150 | 0 | 162 | 678 | 146 | 93 | 16 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 13.7% | 7.8% | 2.4% | 4.37 | 4.31 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 185 | 0 | 200 | 837 | 180 | 115 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 13.7% | 7.8% | 2.4% | 4.37 | 4.31 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 137 | 23 | 260 | 1153 | 246 | 183 | 22 | 17% | 1.9 | 21.3% | 15.9% | 5.4% | 1.9% | 4.25 | 4.36 | +3.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 105 | 18 | 200 | 886 | 189 | 141 | 17 | 17% | 1.9 | 21.3% | 15.9% | 5.4% | 1.9% | 4.25 | 4.36 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alimber Santa (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.09 | 22.3% | 16.9% | 2.5% | — | 4.68 | 22.2% | 8.5% | 127 | -0.41 | — | — | — |
| James Acuna R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.89 | 21.3% | 17.0% | 2.6% | .302 | 4.23 | 19.4% | 4.6% | 60 | -0.66 | 4.23 | 107 | 92 |
| Blake Holub R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.31 | 21.7% | 15.3% | 2.0% | .339 | 3.90 | 23.6% | 11.8% | 156 | -0.41 | 3.31 | 236 | 89 |
| Jake Gilbert R 2027 · 4.18 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.18 | 22.1% | 15.2% | 1.9% | .314 | 4.59 | 18.2% | 2.0% | 53 | +0.41 | 4.18 | 103 | 87 |
| Grayson Thurman R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.38 | 19.5% | 14.1% | 2.1% | .319 | 4.85 | 19.9% | 10.5% | 87 | +0.47 | 4.38 | 132 | 87 |
| Morgan McSweeney R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.28 | 21.9% | 16.3% | 3.6% | .295 | 5.27 | 18.8% | 4.5% | 93 | -0.01 | 3.94 | 189 | 87 |
| Junior Rincon R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.93 | 17.8% | 13.8% | 2.9% | .318 | 3.77 | 17.6% | 5.1% | 82 | -1.16 | 3.50 | 113 | 87 |
| Pat Light R 2027 · 4.34 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.34 | 20.9% | 14.5% | 2.1% | .270 | 4.39 | 16.4% | 2.8% | 110 | +0.05 | 4.11 | 172 | 87 |
| Konnor Ash R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.57 | 22.2% | 17.0% | 2.2% | .340 | 3.50 | 22.4% | 8.7% | 87 | -1.07 | 2.11 | 127 | 87 |
| Ben Hecht R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.55 | 18.3% | 14.4% | 2.1% | .265 | 4.56 | 22.7% | 9.8% | 58 | +0.01 | 4.55 | 155 | 87 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2028 · 4.78 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.78 | 20.2% | 15.1% | 2.7% | .278 | 4.59 | 16.5% | 2.8% | 182 | -0.19 | 3.64 | 237 | 86 |
| Matt Brill R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.94 | 20.8% | 16.3% | 2.8% | .248 | 3.84 | 19.4% | 4.9% | 60 | -1.10 | 3.75 | 161 | 86 |
| Craig Schlitter R 2027 · 4.76 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.76 | 22.7% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .298 | 4.44 | 14.7% | 4.2% | 171 | -0.32 | 4.07 | 222 | 86 |
| Kasey Ford R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.68 | 20.3% | 14.5% | 2.6% | .310 | 4.31 | 21.9% | 5.8% | 98 | -0.37 | 2.53 | 114 | 86 |
| Easton Sikorski R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.76 | 20.9% | 14.1% | 3.0% | .254 | 4.52 | 17.5% | 6.3% | 154 | -0.24 | 4.09 | 183 | 86 |
| Jhonny Polanco R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.76 | 18.9% | 14.2% | 2.7% | .283 | 3.92 | 21.3% | 5.7% | 48 | -0.84 | 3.92 | 116 | 86 |
| Tyler Santana R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.36 | 20.3% | 15.1% | 1.9% | .333 | 4.38 | 16.0% | 5.7% | 259 | +0.02 | 3.41 | 390 | 86 |
| Gabriel Ponce R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.42 | 20.5% | 14.5% | 2.2% | .238 | 4.73 | 24.2% | 8.7% | 61 | +0.31 | 4.42 | 161 | 86 |
| Alaska Abney R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.83 | 18.8% | 13.8% | 2.9% | .301 | 3.88 | 17.4% | 7.9% | 104 | -0.95 | 3.31 | 207 | 86 |
| Sal Biasi R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.19 | 20.1% | 15.8% | 3.3% | .295 | 7.85 | 15.3% | -0.2% | 23 | +2.66 | 4.68 | 188 | 85 |
| Isaac Stebens R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.06 | 21.1% | 15.5% | 1.4% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 102 | 85 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 56 | 22.2% | 14.5% | 0.94 | 4.83 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |