Luke Stofel
P
West Michigan Whitecaps
Age 24
RHP
6'5" / 235 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION40 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 147138vR 129
ERA5.71
FIP5.71
K%12.0%
BB%13.9%
K-BB%-1.8%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 107 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.6 | 16.7% | 27.8% | -11.1% | 0.0% | 30.86 | 5.21 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.6 | 16.7% | 27.8% | -11.1% | 0.0% | 30.86 | 6.96 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 0 | 42 | 185 | 44 | 19 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 17.6% | 12.4% | 5.2% | 1.8% | 4.89 | 4.17 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 0 | 42 | 185 | 44 | 19 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.8% | 10.3% | 13.5% | 1.6% | 4.89 | 3.29 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 23 | 12 | 97 | 415 | 72 | 42 | 4 | 52% | 4.2 | 12.8% | 11.9% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 3.05 | 4.47 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 23 | 12 | 97 | 415 | 72 | 42 | 4 | 52% | 4.2 | 17.3% | 10.1% | 7.2% | 1.0% | 3.05 | 3.45 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 25 | 0 | 40 | 175 | 37 | 20 | 3 | 0% | 1.6 | 16.5% | 13.7% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 4.08 | 4.67 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | DET | 64 | 0 | 67 | 284 | 34 | 39 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 12.0% | 13.9% | -1.8% | 2.7% | 5.71 | 5.71 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | DET | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 12.0% | 13.9% | -1.8% | 2.7% | 5.71 | 5.71 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | DET | — | — | 107 | 459 | 71 | 59 | 11 | — | — | 15.5% | 12.9% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 5.11 | 5.32 | +0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | DET | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 12.0% | 13.9% | -1.8% | 2.7% | 5.71 | 5.33 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | DET | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 41 | 37 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.4% | 12.9% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 5.47 | 5.40 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | DET | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 45 | 36 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.8% | 12.6% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 5.30 | 5.25 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | DET | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 18 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.4% | 12.9% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 5.47 | 5.40 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | DET | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 30 | 24 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.8% | 12.6% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 5.30 | 5.25 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 71 | 0 | 75 | 316 | 48 | 40 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.3% | 12.7% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 5.37 | 4.93 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 128 | 107 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.3% | 12.7% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 5.37 | 4.93 | +1.1 | ||
| Career | — | 83 | 12 | 182 | 793 | 118 | 101 | 14 | 14% | 2.2 | 14.8% | 12.8% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 4.06 | 4.46 | +2.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 91 | 13 | 200 | 873 | 130 | 112 | 16 | 14% | 2.2 | 14.8% | 12.8% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 4.06 | 4.46 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luke Stofel (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.71 | 12.0% | 13.9% | 2.7% | — | 5.33 | 15.1% | 2.4% | 136 | -0.38 | — | — | — |
| Johendí Jiminian R 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.45 | 11.5% | 14.0% | 2.8% | .300 | 4.85 | 13.9% | 3.6% | 164 | -0.60 | 3.93 | 419 | 88 |
| Dylan Rheault R 2025 · 5.57 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.57 | 6.5% | 14.9% | 2.1% | .288 | 4.14 | 14.1% | 4.8% | 96 | -1.43 | 3.96 | 198 | 86 |
| Kender Villegas R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.55 | 13.3% | 13.3% | 1.6% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 131 | 84 |
| Cooper Adams R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.35 | 13.0% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .275 | 3.92 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 118 | -1.43 | 2.99 | 197 | 84 |
| Conner O'Neil R 2026 · 5.58 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.58 | 12.8% | 13.6% | 3.3% | .340 | 7.24 | 16.4% | 4.1% | 26 | +1.66 | 2.90 | 115 | 83 |
| Taylor Grover R 2026 · 5.40 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.40 | 15.1% | 12.9% | 3.5% | .229 | 4.26 | 18.7% | 9.1% | 150 | -1.14 | 3.63 | 239 | 83 |
| James Pugliese R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.90 | 12.5% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .226 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.52 | 218 | 83 |
| Dylan Spacke R 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.23 | 16.1% | 13.9% | 3.2% | .297 | 4.74 | 13.6% | 0.2% | 52 | -0.49 | 2.08 | 205 | 82 |
| Brett Lockwood R 2026 · 5.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.51 | 16.2% | 15.5% | 3.3% | .312 | 4.61 | 11.0% | -6.3% | 79 | -0.90 | 4.29 | 132 | 82 |
| Reece Karalus R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.81 | 15.4% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.74 | 149 | 82 |
| Tyler Barnette R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.53 | 13.0% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .333 | 3.99 | 10.7% | -3.5% | 13 | -0.54 | 3.53 | 173 | 81 |
| Logan Sendelbach R 2026 · 5.61 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.61 | 12.3% | 13.9% | 3.3% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 340 | 81 |
| Juan Paniagua R 2027 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.75 | 15.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .262 | 4.62 | 16.2% | 1.8% | 93 | -0.13 | 4.51 | 151 | 80 |
| Brady Dragmire R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.71 | 8.9% | 9.4% | 2.1% | .304 | 4.32 | 11.9% | 5.8% | 173 | -0.39 | 3.04 | 391 | 80 |
| Zach Nuding R 2027 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.09 | 12.5% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .236 | 4.99 | 12.6% | 3.3% | 106 | -0.10 | 4.99 | 146 | 80 |
| Juan Perez R 2024 · 4.63 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.63 | 10.8% | 10.8% | 2.0% | .230 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.63 | 113 | 80 |
| Kevin Johnson R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.59 | 11.0% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 5.48 | 9.9% | -2.0% | 26 | +0.89 | 4.59 | 106 | 80 |
| Wirkin Estevez R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.36 | 10.7% | 13.4% | 2.7% | .316 | 4.42 | 12.3% | 3.5% | 179 | -0.94 | 4.24 | 238 | 79 |
| David Trexler R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.91 | 17.7% | 13.4% | 2.9% | .313 | 4.44 | 18.3% | 4.8% | 31 | -0.47 | 4.44 | 100 | 79 |
| Daniel Concepcion R 2024 · 5.38 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.38 | 13.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 110 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 68 | 14.1% | 13.1% | 1.06 | 5.49 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |