Luke Stofel — OGILVIE

Luke Stofel P West Michigan Whitecaps

+0.0 WAR

Age 24 RHP 6'5" / 235 lbs A+ peak 0.6 · 2027

ERA4.62

FIP4.62

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%19.5%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%9.1%

IP79

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.6peak

2027

STUF3030

CTRL4040

CMD3030

K†4045

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	21	A+	West Michigan Whitecaps	4	0	2	18	3	5	0	—	—	—	30.86	—	—
2024	22	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	31	0	42	185	44	19	3	17.6%	12.4%	2.0%	4.89	4.27	+0.3
2025	23	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	23	12	97	415	72	42	4	12.8%	11.9%	1.4%	3.05	4.31	+1.1
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	AA	Erie SeaWolves	4	0	7	32	7	2	0	—	—	—	2.57	—	—
ROS	24	MLB	DET	14	14	79	332	57	41	9	17.1%	12.5%	2.7%	5.08	5.08	+0.0
2026 Total	24	MLB	DET	—	—	86	364	64	43	9	17.5%	11.9%	2.4%	4.88	4.67	+0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	25	MLB	DET	14	14	80	337	61	40	9	18.1%	11.9%	2.7%	4.96	4.93	+0.2
2028	26	MLB	DET	14	14	80	337	63	39	9	18.7%	11.7%	2.7%	4.88	4.86	+0.2
2029	27	MLB	DET	14	14	79	334	63	39	9	19.0%	11.6%	2.7%	4.85	4.84	+0.2
2030	28	MLB	DET	14	14	78	329	63	38	9	19.1%	11.6%	2.8%	4.85	4.86	+0.2
2031	29	MLB	DET	14	14	76	321	61	37	9	18.9%	11.6%	2.8%	4.88	4.90	+0.2
2032	30	MLB	DET	13	13	74	312	58	37	9	18.7%	11.7%	2.9%	4.93	4.97	+0.1
2033	31	MLB	DET	13	13	71	301	56	36	9	18.5%	11.9%	3.0%	5.00	5.04	+0.0
2034	32	MLB	DET	12	12	68	289	53	35	9	18.2%	12.0%	3.0%	5.08	5.13	-0.1
2035	33	MLB	DET	12	12	65	276	49	34	9	17.9%	12.2%	3.1%	5.17	5.22	-0.2
2036	34	MLB	DET	11	11	62	262	46	32	8	17.6%	12.4%	3.2%	5.27	5.33	-0.3
2037	35	MLB	DET	58	—	58	247	42	31	8	17.2%	12.6%	3.3%	5.38	5.46	-0.3
2038	36	MLB	DET	55	—	55	231	39	30	8	16.7%	12.8%	3.5%	5.51	5.59	-0.4
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			62	12	149	650	96	79	10	14.7%	12.2%	1.5%	3.99	4.21	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—			83	16	200	872	129	106	13	14.7%	12.2%	1.5%	3.99	4.21	+2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luke Stofel (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.08	17.1%	12.5%	2.7%	—	4.88	18.6%	6.9%	238	-0.20	—	—	—
David Trexler R 2026 · 4.58 FIP	24	SW	4.58	17.7%	13.4%	2.3%	.313	4.44	18.3%	4.8%	31	-0.14	4.44	100	94
David Griffin R 2027 · 4.42 FIP	25	SW	4.42	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.32	15.6%	5.5%	168	+0.90	4.42	239	91
Dylan Burns R 2027 · 4.07 FIP	25	SW	4.07	17.1%	10.8%	1.9%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.80	4.07	120	91
Matt Marsh R 2026 · 4.15 FIP	24	SW	4.15	15.5%	10.7%	1.8%	.275	3.68	20.5%	11.4%	70	-0.47	3.13	143	90
John Matthews R 2026 · 4.46 FIP	24	SW	4.46	16.5%	13.0%	2.0%	.264	4.99	14.5%	-0.5%	70	+0.53	4.46	213	90
Juan Paniagua R 2027 · 4.69 FIP	25	SW	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.58	151	90
Matt Lollis R 2026 · 4.56 FIP	24	SW	4.56	18.5%	12.2%	2.7%	.237	5.00	19.2%	4.7%	56	+0.44	4.56	120	90
Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	3.96	20.3%	11.1%	143	-0.28	3.84	206	89
Taylor Grover R 2026 · 5.00 FIP	24	SW	5.00	15.1%	12.9%	2.8%	.229	4.32	18.7%	9.1%	150	-0.68	3.69	239	89
Stolmy Pimentel R 2027 · 4.53 FIP	25	SW	4.53	16.0%	10.5%	2.6%	.338	3.89	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.64	3.89	143	88
Ike Buxton R 2026 · 4.43 FIP	24	SW	4.43	15.4%	13.1%	1.8%	.341	4.98	13.8%	-5.5%	46	+0.55	4.43	196	88
Danny Kirwin R 2026 · 4.16 FIP	24	SW	4.16	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	4.19	16.8%	7.5%	66	+0.03	4.16	135	88
Ryan Moseley R 2026 · 4.04 FIP	24	SW	4.04	16.9%	11.9%	1.6%	.282	5.26	14.1%	1.1%	48	+1.22	4.04	264	88
Max Alba R 2026 · 4.50 FIP	24	SW	4.50	20.6%	12.6%	2.8%	.290	4.91	17.8%	11.6%	162	+0.41	4.50	217	88
Ryan Ledbetter R 2026 · 4.75 FIP	24	SW	4.75	18.5%	12.3%	3.0%	.338	—	—	—	—	—	4.75	124	88
Matthew Gorst R 2026 · 4.65 FIP	24	SW	4.65	16.2%	11.3%	2.7%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	199	87
J.P. Massey R 2026 · 4.70 FIP	24	SW	4.70	16.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.283	5.71	15.5%	-1.3%	46	+1.01	4.70	195	87
Reece Karalus R 2026 · 4.73 FIP	24	SW	4.73	15.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	149	87
Cooper Adams R 2026 · 5.43 FIP	24	SW	5.43	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	3.07	21.9%	12.7%	69	-2.36	3.07	149	87
Darin Gillies R 2026 · 4.22 FIP	24	SW	4.22	15.0%	10.8%	1.8%	.270	4.95	22.5%	12.9%	124	+0.73	4.22	295	87

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.