Luke Stofel — OGILVIE

Luke Stofel P West Michigan Whitecaps

Age 24 RHP 6'5" / 235 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION50 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 142133vR 125

ERA5.71

FIP5.71

K%12.0%

BB%14.0%

K-BB%-2.0%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4040

CMD3030

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	0	2	18	3	5	0	0%	0.6	16.7%	27.8%	-11.1%	0.0%	30.86	5.21	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	0	2	18	3	5	0	0%	0.6	16.7%	27.8%	-11.1%	0.0%	30.86	5.21	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	0	2	18	3	5	0	0%	0.6	16.7%	27.8%	-11.1%	0.0%	30.86	6.96	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	42	185	44	19	3	0%	1.4	17.6%	12.4%	5.2%	2.0%	4.89	4.26	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	42	185	44	19	3	0%	1.4	17.6%	12.4%	5.2%	2.0%	4.89	4.26	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	0	42	185	44	19	3	0%	1.4	23.8%	10.3%	13.5%	1.6%	4.89	3.29	—
2025	23	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	23	12	97	415	72	42	4	52%	4.2	12.8%	11.9%	0.9%	1.5%	3.05	4.32	—
2025	23	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	23	12	97	415	72	42	4	52%	4.2	12.8%	11.9%	0.9%	1.5%	3.05	4.32	—
2025	23	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	23	12	97	415	72	42	4	52%	4.2	17.3%	10.1%	7.2%	1.0%	3.05	3.45	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	33	0	50	222	47	24	4	0%	1.5	16.5%	12.8%	3.6%	2.3%	3.58	4.61	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	33	0	50	222	47	24	4	0%	1.5	16.5%	12.8%	3.6%	2.3%	3.58	4.61	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	DET	32	0	49	215	46	24	4	0%	1.5	21.4%	11.2%	10.2%	1.9%	3.47	3.73	—
2026	24	AA RAW	DET	1	0	1	7	1	0	0	0%	1.0	14.3%	0.0%	14.3%	0.0%	9.00	1.89	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	DET	6	0	6	26	3	4	1	0%	1.0	12.0%	14.0%	-2.0%	2.7%	5.71	5.71	-0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	DET	—	—	56	248	50	28	5	—	—	20.2%	11.1%	9.1%	1.9%	3.81	4.73	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	DET	84	0	89	375	54	48	10	0%	1.1	14.3%	12.9%	1.4%	2.7%	5.46	5.39	-0.8
2028	26	MLB MLE	DET	84	0	89	375	59	47	10	0%	1.1	15.6%	12.5%	3.1%	2.7%	5.29	5.23	-0.7
2029	27	MLB MLE	DET	83	0	87	369	59	46	10	0%	1.1	16.0%	12.3%	3.6%	2.8%	5.23	5.22	-0.7
2030	28	MLB MLE	DET	81	0	85	358	57	44	10	0%	1.0	16.0%	12.4%	3.6%	2.9%	5.25	5.28	-0.7
2031	29	MLB MLE	DET	77	0	81	342	54	43	10	0%	1.1	15.7%	12.6%	3.1%	3.0%	5.35	5.41	-0.8
2032	30	MLB MLE	DET	72	0	76	321	56	39	10	0%	1.1	17.4%	12.1%	5.3%	3.2%	5.33	5.32	-0.7
2027	25	MLB CTX	DET	36	0	38	160	23	21	4	0%	1.1	14.3%	12.9%	1.4%	2.7%	5.46	5.39	-0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	DET	56	0	59	249	39	31	7	0%	1.1	15.6%	12.5%	3.1%	2.7%	5.29	5.23	-0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	DET	65	0	68	287	46	35	8	0%	1.0	16.0%	12.3%	3.6%	2.8%	5.23	5.22	-0.5
2030	28	MLB CTX	DET	68	0	71	300	48	37	9	0%	1.0	16.0%	12.4%	3.6%	2.9%	5.25	5.28	-0.6
2031	29	MLB CTX	DET	68	0	71	300	47	38	9	0%	1.0	15.7%	12.6%	3.1%	3.0%	5.35	5.41	-0.7
2032	30	MLB CTX	DET	65	0	68	287	50	35	9	0%	1.0	17.4%	12.1%	5.3%	3.2%	5.33	5.32	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		357	0	375	1585	253	197	46	0%	1.1	16.0%	12.4%	3.5%	2.9%	5.31	4.93	-1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	135	105	25	0%	1.1	16.0%	12.4%	3.5%	2.9%	5.31	4.93	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		91	12	192	840	125	106	15	13%	2.1	14.9%	12.6%	2.3%	1.8%	3.93	4.41	-4.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		95	12	200	873	130	110	15	13%	2.1	14.9%	12.6%	2.3%	1.8%	3.93	4.41	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luke Stofel (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.71	12.0%	14.0%	2.7%	—	5.28	15.3%	2.7%	265	-0.43	—	—	—
Johendí Jiminian R 2017 · 5.70 FIP	24	SU	5.70	11.5%	14.0%	3.3%	.300	4.77	13.9%	3.6%	164	-0.93	4.01	419	88
Dylan Rheault R 2015 · 5.75 FIP	23	SU	5.75	6.5%	14.9%	2.4%	.288	4.11	14.1%	4.8%	96	-1.64	3.88	198	88
Jack Jasiak R 2023 · 5.03 FIP	22	SU	5.03	12.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.288	3.81	19.8%	12.1%	193	-1.22	3.24	262	87
Kender Villegas R 2017 · 4.70 FIP	24	SU	4.70	13.3%	13.3%	1.9%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	131	86
Taylor Grover R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SU	5.03	15.1%	12.9%	2.9%	.229	4.30	18.7%	9.1%	150	-0.73	3.68	239	84
Eli Saul R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	21	SW	5.41	12.6%	14.2%	2.9%	.305	5.39	13.8%	-2.9%	98	-0.02	5.30	157	84
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	84
Conner O'Neil R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	24	SU	5.78	12.8%	13.6%	3.7%	.340	6.92	16.4%	4.1%	26	+1.14	2.89	115	83
Dylan Spacke R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	24	SU	5.24	16.1%	13.9%	3.2%	.297	4.79	13.6%	0.2%	52	-0.45	2.08	205	82
James Pugliese R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	24	SW	4.72	12.5%	11.6%	2.2%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	2.52	218	82
Reece Karalus R 2018 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	149	82
Joe Nahas R 2023 · 4.70 FIP	23	SU	4.70	14.3%	13.3%	2.1%	.295	4.63	18.8%	10.6%	77	-0.07	4.33	328	82
Logan Sendelbach R 2018 · 5.31 FIP	24	SU	5.31	12.3%	13.9%	2.7%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	340	82
Ocean Gabonia R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SU	5.04	15.4%	14.6%	2.5%	.283	3.29	19.1%	10.9%	91	-1.75	2.79	144	81
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	81
Jeff Soptic R 2015 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	15.5%	17.2%	2.5%	.237	5.52	13.6%	-1.7%	68	+0.22	5.30	124	81
Mitchell Osnowitz R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	13.2%	13.8%	1.5%	.330	5.30	16.5%	-2.2%	23	+0.76	4.54	132	81
Rob Huber R 2016 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	117	81
Jake Johansen R 2015 · 5.34 FIP	24	SU	5.34	15.8%	12.8%	3.6%	.351	4.14	13.6%	3.0%	114	-1.20	3.65	162	81
Zach Nuding R 2015 · 4.76 FIP	25	SU	4.76	12.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.236	5.03	12.6%	3.3%	106	+0.27	4.76	146	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	82	15.4%	12.7%	1.10	5.36
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04