Chad Smith
P
Las Vegas Aviators
Age 31
RHP
6'4" / 200 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 53 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126117vR 108
ERA4.71
FIP4.74
K%24.4%
BB%12.7%
K-BB%11.7%
ROS IP53
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5895.1
Whiff%
p1820.8%
K%
p1015.0%
xwOBA vs
p140.355
SL-1.1
FB-1.3
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | GCL Marlins | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.8 | 21.4% | 0.0% | 21.4% | 0.0% | 7.71 | 1.29 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | GCL Marlins | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.8 | 21.4% | 0.0% | 21.4% | 0.0% | 7.71 | 0.53 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 34 | 0 | 46 | 196 | 52 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 19.6% | 8.4% | 11.2% | 1.5% | 2.93 | 3.33 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 34 | 0 | 46 | 196 | 52 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 26.5% | 7.1% | 19.4% | 1.5% | 2.93 | 2.60 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Jupiter Hammerheads | 30 | 0 | 35 | 155 | 45 | 20 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.4% | 14.8% | 7.5% | 2.3% | 3.57 | 4.36 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Jupiter Hammerheads | 30 | 0 | 35 | 155 | 45 | 20 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 29.0% | 12.9% | 16.1% | 1.3% | 3.57 | 2.99 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 0 | 42 | 184 | 46 | 22 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 6.2% | 2.3% | 4.54 | 4.43 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 0 | 42 | 184 | 46 | 22 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.0% | 12.0% | 13.0% | 1.6% | 4.54 | 3.41 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 36 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 37 | 19 | 1 | 0% | 0.9 | 23.4% | 14.4% | 9.1% | 0.6% | 2.97 | 3.26 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 36 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 37 | 19 | 1 | 0% | 0.9 | 26.6% | 13.7% | 12.9% | 0.7% | 2.97 | 2.98 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 0 | 53 | 221 | 63 | 25 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.3% | 11.5% | 14.8% | 3.4% | 4.58 | 4.18 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 0 | 53 | 221 | 63 | 25 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.5% | 11.3% | 17.2% | 3.6% | 4.58 | 4.10 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 48 | 233 | 51 | 36 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.7% | 16.1% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 7.26 | 5.53 | -0.6 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 48 | 233 | 51 | 36 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 15.5% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 7.26 | 5.38 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 51 | 0 | 53 | 225 | 55 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.4% | 12.7% | 11.7% | 3.1% | 4.71 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 47 | 0 | 49 | 209 | 49 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 12.7% | 10.8% | 3.4% | 4.84 | 4.96 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 43 | 0 | 45 | 191 | 43 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 12.9% | 9.7% | 3.6% | 5.03 | 5.19 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | OAK | 39 | 0 | 41 | 174 | 38 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 13.2% | 8.5% | 3.9% | 5.26 | 5.45 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 17 | 0 | 18 | 76 | 18 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 12.7% | 10.8% | 3.4% | 4.84 | 4.96 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 24 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 12.9% | 9.7% | 3.6% | 5.03 | 5.19 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | OAK | 20 | 0 | 21 | 89 | 19 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 13.2% | 8.5% | 3.9% | 5.26 | 5.45 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 86 | 0 | 96 | 415 | 93 | 57 | 14 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 13.7% | 8.7% | 3.3% | 5.73 | 4.77 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 180 | 0 | 200 | 868 | 194 | 119 | 29 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 13.7% | 8.7% | 3.3% | 5.73 | 4.77 | +1.5 | ||
| Career | — | 229 | 0 | 260 | 1142 | 249 | 147 | 28 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 12.9% | 8.9% | 2.4% | 4.47 | 4.23 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 176 | 0 | 200 | 878 | 192 | 113 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 12.9% | 8.9% | 2.4% | 4.47 | 4.23 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chad Smith (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.74 | 24.4% | 12.7% | 3.1% | — | 5.19 | 22.7% | 9.7% | 136 | +0.45 | — | — | — |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2028 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 86 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 86 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 85 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 84 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.85 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.7% | .283 | 4.58 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 81 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 80 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.18 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 2.2% | .276 | 3.35 | 24.3% | 11.9% | 16 | -0.83 | 3.35 | 129 | 79 |
| Jon Edwards R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.46 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 132 | 79 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 78 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2025 · 3.57 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.57 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 224 | 78 |
| Blake Treinen R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.89 | 22.2% | 13.5% | 3.5% | .302 | 2.69 | 27.3% | 19.4% | 98 | -2.20 | 1.51 | 544 | 78 |
| Adam Ottavino R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.22 | 25.9% | 15.2% | 2.5% | .296 | 2.55 | 33.3% | 22.0% | 162 | -1.67 | 1.99 | 488 | 76 |
| Leonel Campos R 2025 · 3.78 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.78 | 25.7% | 11.8% | 2.5% | .241 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 168 | 74 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.3% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .278 | 3.50 | 24.3% | 18.2% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.27 | 426 | 74 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2024 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.9% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 160 | 72 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.69 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .244 | 4.74 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +1.05 | 3.69 | 521 | 72 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.08 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .246 | 3.76 | 28.8% | 20.4% | 145 | -0.32 | 1.74 | 468 | 72 |
| Jean Machi R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 72 |
| Dan Winkler R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.66 | 21.1% | 15.3% | 2.6% | .233 | 3.63 | 24.4% | 10.4% | 46 | -1.03 | 2.40 | 231 | 71 |
| Logan Kensing R 2028 · 3.55 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.55 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.49 | 2.77 | 172 | 71 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 47 | 23.2% | 12.9% | 1.34 | 4.94 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |