Chad Smith
P
Las Vegas Aviators
+0.1
WAR
Age 31
RHP
6'4" / 200 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA5.37
FIP4.55
xFIP5.49
SIERA5.12
K%22.7%
BB%10.4%
K-BB%12.3%
IP38
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF5555
CTRL2020
CMD3535
K†6060
FB Velo
p5895.1
Whiff%
p1820.8%
K%
p1015.0%
xwOBA vs
p140.355
SL-1.1
FB-1.3
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | GCL Marlins | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 7.71 | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 34 | 0 | 46 | 196 | 52 | 14 | 3 | 19.6% | 8.4% | 1.7% | 2.93 | 3.47 | +0.8 |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Jupiter Hammerheads | 30 | 0 | 35 | 155 | 45 | 20 | 2 | 22.4% | 14.8% | 1.9% | 3.57 | 4.14 | +0.3 |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 34 | 0 | 42 | 184 | 46 | 22 | 3 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 2.2% | 4.54 | 4.33 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 36 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 37 | 19 | 1 | 23.4% | 14.4% | 0.7% | 2.97 | 3.32 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 47 | 0 | 53 | 221 | 63 | 25 | 8 | 26.3% | 11.5% | 3.5% | 4.58 | 4.27 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 45 | 0 | 48 | 233 | 51 | 36 | 8 | 19.7% | 16.1% | 3.7% | 7.26 | 5.51 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 38 | — | 38 | 161 | 40 | 20 | 5 | 24.9% | 12.7% | 3.1% | 5.62 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 37 | 19 | 5 | 24.1% | 12.5% | 3.2% | 5.10 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 35 | — | 35 | 148 | 35 | 18 | 5 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 3.3% | 4.95 | 4.87 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | OAK | 33 | — | 33 | 140 | 32 | 17 | 5 | 22.7% | 12.4% | 3.4% | 4.96 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 35 | MLB | OAK | 31 | — | 31 | 132 | 29 | 17 | 5 | 22.0% | 12.6% | 3.5% | 5.05 | 5.12 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 36 | MLB | OAK | 29 | — | 29 | 124 | 26 | 16 | 4 | 21.2% | 12.8% | 3.6% | 5.19 | 5.28 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 229 | 0 | 260 | 1142 | 249 | 147 | 28 | 21.8% | 12.9% | 2.4% | 4.47 | 4.23 | +3.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 176 | 0 | 200 | 878 | 192 | 113 | 22 | 21.8% | 12.9% | 2.4% | 4.47 | 4.23 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chad Smith (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.70 | 24.9% | 12.7% | 3.1% | — | 4.87 | 23.4% | 11.0% | 105 | +0.17 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 85 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 85 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2028 · 4.47 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.47 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.9% | .263 | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.49 | 3.98 | 104 | 82 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.83 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .283 | 4.53 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.30 | 2.93 | 176 | 82 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 81 |
| Jon Edwards R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.43 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 132 | 79 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 76 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.01 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 1.9% | .276 | 3.38 | 24.3% | 11.9% | 16 | -0.63 | 3.38 | 129 | 75 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2025 · 3.62 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.62 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.8% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 224 | 74 |
| Tyler Chatwood R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.53 | 26.2% | 14.5% | 1.5% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 537 | 74 |
| Leonel Campos R 2025 · 3.71 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.71 | 25.7% | 11.8% | 2.3% | .241 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.63 | 168 | 74 |
| Blake Treinen R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.92 | 22.2% | 13.5% | 3.6% | .302 | 2.51 | 27.3% | 19.4% | 98 | -2.41 | 1.54 | 521 | 74 |
| Adam Ottavino R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.43 | 25.9% | 15.2% | 2.9% | .296 | 2.61 | 33.3% | 22.0% | 162 | -1.82 | 2.15 | 488 | 73 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2024 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 160 | 73 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.21 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .253 | 3.95 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.26 | 3.80 | 132 | 73 |
| Robert Stock R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.16 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .301 | 7.43 | 14.7% | -1.9% | 23 | +3.27 | 2.91 | 334 | 72 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.89 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .246 | 3.65 | 28.8% | 20.4% | 145 | -0.24 | 1.69 | 468 | 72 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.09 | 25.3% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .278 | 3.53 | 24.3% | 18.2% | 99 | -0.56 | 2.31 | 403 | 72 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.48 | 22.1% | 13.9% | 2.7% | .293 | 3.45 | 27.6% | 18.2% | 147 | -1.03 | 3.02 | 363 | 71 |
| Dan Winkler R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.66 | 21.1% | 15.3% | 2.6% | .233 | 3.85 | 24.4% | 10.4% | 46 | -0.81 | 2.47 | 231 | 71 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.