Chad Smith — OGILVIE

Chad Smith P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 31 RHP 6'4" / 200 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129120vR 112

ERA4.89

FIP5.02

K%22.8%

BB%13.8%

K-BB%9.1%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL2020

CMD3535

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5895.1

Whiff%

p1820.8%

p1015.0%

xwOBA vs

p140.355

SL-1.1

FB-1.3

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	21	ROK MLE	GCL Marlins	3	0	2	14	3	0	0	0%	0.8	21.4%	0.0%	21.4%	0.0%	7.71	1.29	—
2016	21	ROK RAW	GCL Marlins	3	0	2	14	3	0	0	0%	0.8	21.4%	0.0%	21.4%	0.0%	7.71	0.53	—
2017	22	A MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	34	0	46	196	52	14	3	0%	1.4	19.6%	8.4%	11.2%	1.7%	2.93	3.44	—
2017	22	A RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	34	0	46	196	52	14	3	0%	1.4	26.5%	7.1%	19.4%	1.5%	2.93	2.60	—
2018	23	A+ MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	30	0	35	155	45	20	2	0%	1.2	22.4%	14.8%	7.5%	1.9%	3.57	4.13	—
2018	23	A+ RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	30	0	35	155	45	20	2	0%	1.2	29.0%	12.9%	16.1%	1.3%	3.57	2.99	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	42	184	46	22	3	0%	1.2	19.8%	13.5%	6.2%	2.1%	4.54	4.32	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	42	184	46	22	3	0%	1.2	25.0%	12.0%	13.0%	1.6%	4.54	3.41	—
2021	26	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	36	0	33	139	37	19	1	0%	0.9	23.4%	14.4%	9.1%	0.7%	2.97	3.31	—
2021	26	AAA RAW	Albuquerque Isotopes	36	0	33	139	37	19	1	0%	0.9	26.6%	13.7%	12.9%	0.7%	2.97	2.98	—
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	53	221	63	25	8	0%	1.1	26.3%	11.5%	14.8%	3.6%	4.58	4.32	+0.1
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	0	53	221	63	25	8	0%	1.1	28.5%	11.3%	17.2%	3.6%	4.58	4.10	+0.3
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	48	233	51	36	8	0%	1.1	18.8%	14.2%	4.6%	3.8%	7.26	5.39	-0.5
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	48	233	51	36	8	0%	1.1	18.8%	14.2%	4.6%	3.8%	7.26	5.39	-0.5
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	48	233	51	36	8	0%	1.1	21.9%	15.5%	6.4%	3.4%	7.26	5.38	-0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			25	0	32	145	32	22	4	0%	1.3	22.1%	15.2%	6.9%	2.8%	7.11	4.81	-0.1
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	31	MLB	OAK	4	0	4	17	4	2	1	0%	1.0	22.8%	13.8%	9.1%	3.1%	4.89	5.02	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	OAK	47	0	49	209	46	29	7	0%	1.1	22.1%	13.7%	8.4%	3.4%	5.05	5.20	-0.4
2028	33	MLB MLE	OAK	43	0	45	191	41	26	7	0%	1.1	21.3%	13.8%	7.5%	3.6%	5.24	5.41	-0.4
2029	34	MLB MLE	OAK	39	0	41	174	36	25	7	0%	1.1	20.5%	14.1%	6.5%	3.9%	5.47	5.66	-0.5
2027	32	MLB CTX	OAK	17	0	18	76	17	10	3	0%	1.1	22.1%	13.7%	8.4%	3.4%	5.05	5.20	-0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	OAK	24	0	25	106	23	15	4	0%	1.0	21.3%	13.8%	7.5%	3.6%	5.24	5.41	-0.2
2029	34	MLB CTX	OAK	20	0	21	89	18	13	3	0%	1.1	20.5%	14.1%	6.5%	3.9%	5.47	5.66	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		86	0	96	415	90	60	14	0%	1.1	21.6%	14.3%	7.2%	3.3%	5.87	4.92	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		180	0	200	868	188	125	29	0%	1.1	21.6%	14.3%	7.2%	3.3%	5.87	4.92	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		229	0	260	1142	247	143	28	0%	1.1	21.6%	12.5%	9.1%	2.4%	4.47	4.20	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		176	0	200	878	190	110	22	0%	1.1	21.6%	12.5%	9.1%	2.4%	4.47	4.20	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chad Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.02	22.8%	13.8%	3.1%	—	5.41	21.4%	7.5%	136	+0.39	—	—	—
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	83
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	82
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	81
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	81
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	81
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.92	176	79
Alexi Ogando R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	31	SU	5.11	19.1%	9.4%	4.4%	.253	3.95	17.2%	8.0%	67	-1.16	3.79	132	78
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	77
Adam Ottavino R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	25.9%	15.2%	2.9%	.296	2.60	33.3%	22.0%	162	-1.84	2.10	488	76
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	73
Dustin McGowan R 2015 · 5.32 FIP	33	SU	5.32	15.0%	14.5%	3.0%	.300	4.23	20.9%	13.0%	145	-1.09	3.82	208	73
Dan Winkler R 2021 · 4.76 FIP	31	SU	4.76	21.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.233	3.87	24.4%	10.4%	46	-0.89	2.40	231	73
Austin Adams R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	32	SU	5.80	20.8%	10.6%	5.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	162	73
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	72
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	71
Fredy Quintero R 2019 · 4.62 FIP	31	SU	4.62	17.2%	13.7%	2.2%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	241	71
Arquimedes Caminero R 2019 · 4.62 FIP	32	SU	4.62	18.6%	11.1%	3.1%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.54	173	70
Brad Boxberger R 2019 · 4.46 FIP	31	SU	4.46	22.1%	13.9%	2.7%	.293	3.44	27.6%	18.2%	147	-1.02	3.01	363	70
Antonio Guzman R 2019 · 4.96 FIP	31	SU	4.96	19.3%	14.7%	3.0%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.15	254	70
Dalier Hinojosa R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	30	SU	4.30	18.7%	12.6%	2.2%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	104	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	47	21.8%	13.8%	1.34	5.14
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82