Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | GCL Pirates | 9 | 6 | 33 | 130 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 67% | 3.7 | 11.0% | 3.8% | 7.1% | 1.1% | 2.43 | 3.25 | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | GCL Pirates | 9 | 6 | 33 | 130 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 67% | 3.7 | 16.2% | 3.1% | 13.1% | 0.8% | 2.43 | 2.59 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | Bristol Pirates | 5 | 5 | 24 | 100 | 18 | 6 | 1 | 100% | 4.9 | 12.2% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 1.4% | 1.11 | 3.78 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | Bristol Pirates | 5 | 5 | 24 | 100 | 18 | 6 | 1 | 100% | 4.9 | 18.0% | 6.0% | 12.0% | 1.0% | 1.11 | 2.89 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A | West Virginia Power | 17 | 16 | 78 | 322 | 77 | 18 | 7 | 94% | 4.6 | 17.7% | 6.6% | 11.1% | 2.1% | 3.81 | 3.58 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A | West Virginia Power | 17 | 16 | 78 | 322 | 77 | 18 | 7 | 94% | 4.6 | 23.9% | 5.6% | 18.3% | 2.2% | 3.81 | 2.98 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Bradenton Marauders | 20 | 20 | 109 | 451 | 78 | 30 | 11 | 100% | 5.5 | 13.3% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 2.7% | 3.79 | 4.41 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Bradenton Marauders | 20 | 20 | 109 | 451 | 78 | 30 | 11 | 100% | 5.5 | 17.3% | 6.7% | 10.6% | 2.4% | 3.79 | 3.80 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 24 | 109 | 475 | 93 | 34 | 12 | 100% | 4.5 | 17.8% | 7.4% | 10.4% | 2.6% | 4.89 | 3.95 | +1.8 |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 24 | 109 | 475 | 93 | 34 | 12 | 100% | 4.5 | 19.6% | 7.2% | 12.4% | 2.5% | 4.89 | 3.76 | +2.1 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 6 | 3 | 14 | 55 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 50% | 2.3 | 20.0% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 5.5% | 1.98 | 5.56 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 6 | 3 | 14 | 55 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 50% | 2.3 | 20.0% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 5.5% | 1.98 | 5.44 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 9 | 21 | 80 | 14 | 9 | 2 | 100% | 2.3 | 17.6% | 10.5% | 7.1% | 1.5% | 4.35 | 3.79 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 9 | 21 | 80 | 14 | 9 | 2 | 100% | 2.3 | 17.5% | 11.2% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 4.35 | 4.31 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 45 | 8 | 71 | 299 | 64 | 23 | 12 | 18% | 1.6 | 17.9% | 7.7% | 10.3% | 4.5% | 3.82 | 5.05 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 45 | 8 | 71 | 299 | 64 | 23 | 12 | 18% | 1.6 | 21.4% | 7.7% | 13.7% | 4.0% | 3.82 | 4.47 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 0 | 39 | 159 | 30 | 5 | 6 | 0% | 1.5 | 16.9% | 3.4% | 13.5% | 3.4% | 3.89 | 3.97 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 0 | 39 | 159 | 30 | 5 | 6 | 0% | 1.5 | 18.9% | 3.1% | 15.7% | 3.8% | 3.89 | 3.94 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 8 | 2 | 12 | 53 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 25% | 1.5 | — | — | — | — | 5.40 | — | — |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | WSH | 50 | 0 | 53 | 223 | 40 | 12 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.8% | 5.3% | 12.4% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | WSH | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.8% | 5.3% | 12.4% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.40 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 65 | 276 | 51 | 15 | 9 | — | — | 18.3% | 5.4% | 12.9% | 3.3% | 4.65 | 3.60 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 24 | 101 | 18 | 5 | 3 | — | — | 17.8% | 5.4% | 12.4% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.02 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 47 | 0 | 50 | 210 | 37 | 13 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.6% | 6.0% | 11.6% | 3.4% | 4.55 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 44 | 0 | 46 | 195 | 34 | 13 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.3% | 6.6% | 10.7% | 3.6% | 4.70 | 4.81 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 41 | 0 | 43 | 181 | 30 | 13 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.8% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | 4.90 | 5.04 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 22 | 8 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.6% | 6.0% | 11.6% | 3.4% | 4.55 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 24 | 9 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.3% | 6.6% | 10.7% | 3.6% | 4.70 | 4.81 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 32 | 0 | 34 | 144 | 24 | 10 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.8% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | 4.90 | 5.04 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 150 | 9 | 202 | 859 | 149 | 57 | 27 | 6% | 1.3 | 17.4% | 6.6% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 4.68 | 4.18 | +2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 149 | 9 | 200 | 853 | 148 | 57 | 27 | 6% | 1.3 | 17.4% | 6.6% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 4.68 | 4.18 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 169 | 93 | 510 | 2124 | 345 | 148 | 59 | 55% | 3.0 | 16.2% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 3.83 | 4.14 | +7.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 66 | 36 | 200 | 833 | 135 | 58 | 23 | 55% | 3.0 | 16.2% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 3.83 | 4.14 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Max Kranick (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.40 | 17.8% | 5.3% | 3.2% | — | 4.81 | 17.3% | 10.7% | 139 | +0.41 | — | — | — |
| Ramon Delgado R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.73 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.45 | 11.2% | 7.2% | 74 | -0.28 | 4.45 | 135 | 78 |
| Tiago Da Silva R 2027 · 3.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.30 | 19.6% | 4.5% | 2.4% | .278 | 2.36 | 21.4% | 18.5% | 98 | -0.94 | 2.11 | 287 | 73 |
| Bud Norris R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 72 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2028 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 72 |
| Mike Wright Jr. R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.76 | 19.9% | 7.2% | 2.6% | .347 | 3.99 | 17.6% | 7.3% | 169 | +0.23 | 3.73 | 725 | 72 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 72 |
| Tim Dillard R 2029 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 69 |
| Rodolfo Aguirre R 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.28 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.99 | 11.4% | 1.3% | 125 | +0.71 | 3.49 | 212 | 69 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.28 | 18.7% | 5.5% | 3.8% | .333 | 3.66 | 27.2% | 18.8% | 45 | -0.62 | 3.66 | 348 | 69 |
| Murphy Smith R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.54 | 13.6% | 4.9% | 3.6% | .267 | 4.47 | 13.6% | 4.3% | 63 | -0.07 | 3.14 | 300 | 69 |
| Donovan Hand R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.29 | 11.1% | 4.3% | 2.9% | .305 | 4.30 | 12.5% | 5.7% | 140 | +0.01 | 4.29 | 237 | 69 |
| Jorge Martinez R 2028 · 3.42 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.42 | 12.9% | 5.3% | 1.4% | .266 | 3.59 | 16.5% | 11.5% | 154 | +0.17 | 3.42 | 214 | 67 |
| Carlos Frías R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.59 | 16.9% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .369 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 204 | 66 |
| Francisco Cordova R 2028 · 5.28 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.28 | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.9% | .261 | 4.78 | 7.1% | -0.6% | 83 | -0.50 | 4.78 | 115 | 66 |
| Steve Johnson R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.30 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 152 | 66 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.04 | 17.2% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .281 | 5.00 | 15.4% | 8.2% | 139 | +0.96 | 3.93 | 337 | 65 |
| Chris Leroux R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 65 |
| Fredy Quintero R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.48 | 14.0% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .335 | 4.42 | 17.2% | 3.5% | 43 | -0.06 | 4.23 | 241 | 64 |
| Austin Pruitt R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 20.5% | 5.5% | 3.7% | .327 | 4.10 | 18.3% | 14.4% | 95 | -0.02 | 2.95 | 819 | 64 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 64 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 48 | 17.4% | 6.2% | 1.34 | 4.65 |
| Austin Pruitt ('23) | 5 | 61 | 16.9% | 5.6% | 1.22 | 4.45 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Adam Morgan ('21) | 6 | 59 | 20.5% | 7.1% | 1.56 | 4.77 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |