Ryan Rolison — OGILVIE

Ryan Rolison P Chicago Cubs

Age 29 LHP 6'2" / 213 lbs MLB

2026 ROS PROJECTION66 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101109vR 117

ERA4.54

FIP4.75

K%18.1%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%7.8%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 72 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD2525

K†3040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5294.7

Whiff%

p1520.4%

p4721.7%

xwOBA vs

p510.311

SL (29%)

SI (13%)

CU (17%)

CH (2%)

FB (52%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	21	ROK MLE	Grand Junction Rockies	9	9	29	109	34	8	2	100%	3.2	21.2%	9.2%	12.0%	2.6%	1.86	3.88	—
2018	21	ROK RAW	Grand Junction Rockies	9	9	29	109	34	8	2	100%	3.2	31.2%	7.3%	23.9%	1.8%	1.86	2.48	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	131	562	132	39	22	100%	5.2	18.0%	8.0%	10.0%	3.8%	4.40	4.69	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	131	562	132	39	22	100%	5.2	23.5%	6.9%	16.5%	3.9%	4.40	4.16	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	16	16	72	306	77	21	9	100%	4.5	21.5%	6.9%	14.6%	3.0%	5.27	3.81	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	16	16	72	306	77	21	9	100%	4.5	25.2%	6.9%	18.3%	2.9%	5.27	3.46	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	4	11	53	9	6	3	100%	2.8	17.0%	11.3%	5.7%	5.7%	9.00	6.21	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	4	11	53	9	6	3	100%	2.8	17.0%	11.3%	5.7%	5.7%	9.00	6.21	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	4	11	53	9	6	3	100%	2.8	17.0%	11.3%	5.7%	5.7%	9.00	6.65	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	5	46	193	35	14	8	17%	1.6	14.5%	5.0%	9.5%	4.9%	4.47	5.21	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	5	46	193	35	14	8	17%	1.6	14.5%	5.0%	9.5%	4.9%	4.47	5.21	—
2024	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	5	46	193	35	14	8	17%	1.6	18.1%	7.3%	10.9%	4.1%	4.47	4.74	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	2	72	320	57	28	12	4%	1.4	16.1%	8.5%	7.6%	3.4%	5.50	4.68	-0.1
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	2	72	320	57	28	12	4%	1.4	16.1%	8.5%	7.6%	3.4%	5.50	4.68	-0.1
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	2	72	320	57	28	12	4%	1.4	17.8%	8.8%	9.1%	3.8%	5.50	4.85	-0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			85	3	101	428	76	44	17	4%	1.2	17.8%	10.3%	7.5%	4.0%	4.54	5.09	-0.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	59	2	66	272	62	30	6	3%	1.1	21.7%	10.2%	11.5%	2.7%	2.86	4.02	+0.4
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	59	2	66	272	62	30	6	3%	1.1	21.7%	10.2%	11.5%	2.7%	2.86	4.02	+0.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	AAA RAW	CHC	5	0	7	37	11	6	0	0%	1.5	29.7%	16.2%	13.5%	0.0%	3.68	2.64	—
2026	29	MLB RAW	CHC	54	2	59	235	51	24	6	4%	1.1	21.7%	10.2%	11.5%	2.6%	2.76	3.96	+0.4
SO FAR	29	MLB RAW	CHC	54	2	59	235	51	24	6	4%	1.1	21.7%	10.2%	11.5%	2.6%	2.76	3.96	+0.4
ROS	29	MLB MLE	CHC	6	0	6	25	4	3	1	0%	1.0	18.1%	10.3%	7.8%	3.4%	4.54	4.75	-0.0
ROS	29	MLB CTX	CHC	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	18.1%	10.3%	7.8%	3.4%	4.54	4.75	-0.0
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	72	297	66	33	7	—	—	22.4%	11.0%	11.4%	2.3%	3.00	4.08	+0.5
FULL	29	MLB A+C	CHC	—	—	65	272	66	33	7	—	—	24.4%	11.9%	12.5%	2.5%	3.34	3.93	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	CHC	67	0	70	296	49	31	10	0%	1.0	16.5%	10.6%	5.9%	3.4%	5.13	5.30	-0.6
2028	31	MLB MLE	CHC	62	0	65	276	43	30	10	0%	1.1	15.8%	11.0%	4.8%	3.6%	5.37	5.53	-0.7
2027	30	MLB CTX	CHC	63	0	66	279	46	30	9	0%	1.0	16.5%	10.6%	5.9%	3.4%	5.13	5.30	-0.5
2028	31	MLB CTX	CHC	59	0	62	262	41	29	9	0%	1.1	15.8%	11.0%	4.8%	3.6%	5.37	5.53	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		213	3	235	995	168	105	37	1%	1.1	16.9%	10.6%	6.3%	3.7%	4.93	5.05	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		181	3	200	846	143	89	31	1%	1.1	16.9%	10.6%	6.3%	3.7%	4.93	5.05	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		193	63	427	1815	338	147	64	33%	2.2	18.6%	8.1%	10.5%	3.5%	4.45	4.49	-2.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		90	30	200	850	158	69	30	33%	2.2	18.6%	8.1%	10.5%	3.5%	4.45	4.49	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Rolison (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.57	13.7%	10.4%	3.5%	—	5.41	16.1%	5.3%	135	-0.16	—	—	—
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	83
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	79
Ross Detwiler L 2015 · 5.50 FIP	29	SW	5.50	14.2%	12.2%	3.8%	.356	4.80	14.1%	5.9%	242	-0.70	3.49	512	77
Kelvin Marte L 2017 · 4.74 FIP	29	SW	4.74	16.1%	11.4%	2.8%	.300	5.25	12.0%	1.2%	71	+0.51	3.44	360	75
Keith Hessler L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	29	SU	4.96	19.8%	13.3%	3.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	228	75
Kyle Hunter L 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SU	4.50	14.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	188	74
Buddy Boshers L 2017 · 4.56 FIP	29	SU	4.56	18.9%	8.0%	3.7%	.300	3.47	24.1%	15.6%	112	-1.09	2.80	223	73
Jake McGee L 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	18.5%	7.3%	3.9%	.329	3.93	22.1%	15.6%	150	-0.67	1.39	350	70
Chad Bell L 2018 · 4.38 FIP	29	SU	4.38	18.8%	7.4%	3.5%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	393	69
Brian Duensing L 2015 · 4.47 FIP	32	SU	4.47	11.5%	8.1%	2.4%	.252	3.76	20.2%	11.8%	137	-0.71	2.57	198	69
Bryan Harper L 2018 · 4.63 FIP	28	SU	4.63	14.9%	13.9%	1.9%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	133	68
Brian Flynn L 2019 · 4.49 FIP	29	SW	4.49	17.7%	10.1%	2.9%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	277	68
Josh Outman L 2016 · 4.53 FIP	31	SU	4.53	15.3%	3.7%	4.1%	.323	5.73	12.8%	-1.0%	86	+1.20	4.53	106	67
Jake McSteen L 2023 · 6.05 FIP	27	SU	6.05	16.7%	8.0%	6.1%	.302	4.04	19.5%	13.3%	73	-2.01	2.22	286	66
Sammy Solís L 2018 · 4.39 FIP	29	SU	4.39	24.9%	9.6%	4.0%	.330	4.05	26.2%	17.3%	23	-0.34	2.51	190	66
Tyler Alexander L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	29	SW	5.27	15.7%	10.7%	3.9%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	5.27	128	65
Braulio Lara L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	28	SU	5.80	19.8%	17.8%	3.9%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	118	64
Fernando Abad L 2015 · 5.47 FIP	29	SU	5.47	22.0%	7.8%	5.9%	.256	3.65	20.5%	11.9%	90	-1.82	2.37	306	63
Locke St. John L 2022 · 5.62 FIP	29	SU	5.62	16.5%	12.8%	4.2%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.07	389	62
Brandon Hughes L 2023 · 5.45 FIP	27	SU	5.45	20.1%	12.4%	4.5%	.360	4.85	20.8%	12.0%	93	-0.60	3.68	206	62

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	70	15.3%	10.7%	1.36	5.29
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43