Ryan Rolison

P Chicago Cubs

Age 30 LHP 6'2" / 213 lbs MLB

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	27	MIX3 levels	29	5	46	4.47	4.74	18.1%	7.3%	—	K 15.0% · BB 5.0% · FIP 5.17
2025	28	MIX2 levels	51	2	72	5.50	4.85	17.8%	8.8%	-0.3	K 16.4% · BB 8.5% · FIP 4.65
2026	29	MIX2 levels	65	2	70	3.20	3.74	22.5%	11.3%	0.7	K 21.5% · BB 10.5% · FIP 3.96
2027PROJ	30	MLBCHC	43	0	45	5.04	5.20	17.2%	11.7%	-0.3
2028PROJ91% MLB	31	MLBCHC	22	0	23	5.27	5.43	16.5%	12.0%	-0.2
2029PROJ93% MLB	32	MLBCHC	11	0	12	5.52	5.69	15.7%	12.4%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.4 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs53

FB Velo52

K%45

Form4.03 ERA (proj 5.04) · K 14.1% (proj 17.2%) · BB 9.8% (proj 11.7%) · last 90d · 22 IP through Oct 27

CompsJohn Rheinecker (age 28) · Kelvin Marte (age 29) · Andrew Barbosa (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106114vR 122

ERA5.04

FIP5.20

K%17.2%

BB%11.7%

K-BB%5.5%

Proj IP50

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD2525

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5294.7

Whiff%

p1019.7%

p4521.5%

xwOBA vs

p530.309

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	21	ROK MLE	Grand Junction Rockies	9	9	29	109	34	8	2	100%	3.2	21.2%	9.2%	12.0%	2.6%	1.86	3.88	—
2018	21	ROK RAW	Grand Junction Rockies	9	9	29	109	34	8	2	100%	3.2	31.2%	7.3%	23.9%	1.8%	1.86	2.48	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	131	562	132	39	22	100%	5.2	18.0%	8.0%	10.0%	3.8%	4.40	4.69	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	131	562	132	39	22	100%	5.2	23.5%	6.9%	16.5%	3.9%	4.40	4.16	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	16	16	72	306	77	21	9	100%	4.5	21.5%	6.9%	14.6%	3.0%	5.27	3.81	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	16	16	72	306	77	21	9	100%	4.5	25.2%	6.9%	18.3%	2.9%	5.27	3.46	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	4	11	53	9	6	3	100%	2.8	17.0%	11.3%	5.7%	5.7%	9.00	6.21	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	4	11	53	9	6	3	100%	2.8	17.0%	11.3%	5.7%	5.7%	9.00	6.65	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	5	46	193	35	14	8	17%	1.6	15.0%	5.0%	10.0%	4.9%	4.47	5.17	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	5	46	193	35	14	8	17%	1.6	15.0%	5.0%	10.0%	4.9%	4.47	5.17	—
2024	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	5	46	193	35	14	8	17%	1.6	18.1%	7.3%	10.9%	4.1%	4.47	4.74	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	2	72	320	57	28	12	4%	1.4	16.4%	8.5%	7.9%	3.4%	5.50	4.65	-0.1
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	2	72	320	57	28	12	4%	1.4	16.4%	8.5%	7.9%	3.4%	5.50	4.65	-0.1
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	2	72	320	57	28	12	4%	1.4	17.8%	8.8%	9.1%	3.8%	5.50	4.85	-0.3
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	65	2	70	293	66	33	6	3%	1.1	21.5%	10.5%	10.9%	2.4%	3.20	3.96	+0.5
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	65	2	70	293	66	33	6	3%	1.1	21.5%	10.5%	10.9%	2.4%	3.20	3.96	+0.5
2026	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	65	2	70	293	66	33	6	3%	1.1	22.5%	11.3%	11.3%	2.0%	3.20	3.74	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			91	3	105	449	80	47	17	3%	1.2	17.8%	10.5%	7.3%	3.8%	4.70	5.02	-0.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	CHC	43	0	45	190	33	22	6	0%	1.0	17.2%	11.7%	5.5%	3.1%	5.04	5.20	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	CHC	24	0	25	106	18	13	4	0%	1.1	16.5%	12.0%	4.5%	3.3%	5.27	5.43	-0.2
2029	32	MLB MLE	CHC	13	0	13	56	9	7	2	0%	1.0	15.7%	12.4%	3.3%	3.6%	5.52	5.69	-0.2
2028	31	MLB CTX	CHC	22	0	23	97	16	12	3	0%	1.0	16.5%	12.0%	4.5%	3.3%	5.27	5.43	-0.2
2029	32	MLB CTX	CHC	11	0	12	51	8	6	2	0%	1.1	15.7%	12.4%	3.3%	3.6%	5.52	5.69	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		125	3	141	598	104	65	22	2%	1.1	17.4%	10.9%	6.5%	3.7%	4.86	5.03	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		177	4	200	850	148	92	31	2%	1.1	17.4%	10.9%	6.5%	3.7%	4.86	5.03	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		199	63	431	1836	344	150	64	32%	2.2	18.7%	8.2%	10.6%	3.5%	4.49	4.47	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		92	29	200	851	159	70	30	32%	2.2	18.7%	8.2%	10.6%	3.5%	4.49	4.47	-1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAIowa Cubs · 7 IPFIP 2.64 → 2.79 (+0.15)K% 29.7% → 25.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.73%	—	×0.860	25.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.22%	—	×0.900	14.59%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.64 → 2.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 30 IPFIP 2.20 → 2.46 (+0.25)K% 25.2% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.20%	—	×0.860	21.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.30%	—	×0.900	5.67%
HR / BF /BF	0.79%	÷1.017	×1.100	0.85%

Result: FIP 2.20 → 2.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 35 IPFIP 5.02 → 5.17 (+0.15)K% 17.5% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.48%	—	×0.860	15.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.59%	—	×0.900	5.03%
HR / BF /BF	4.90%	÷1.096	×1.100	4.91%

Result: FIP 5.02 → 5.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Rockies · 7 IPFIP 2.32 → 3.37 (+1.05)K% 25.9% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.93%	—	×0.680	17.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×1.250	13.89%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.044	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 109).

Result: FIP 2.32 → 3.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Spokane Indians · 5 IPFIP 6.04 → 6.90 (+0.86)K% 13.0% → 10.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.04%	—	×0.770	10.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.04%	—	×1.150	15.00%
HR / BF /BF	4.35%	÷1.086	×1.250	5.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 117).

Result: FIP 6.04 → 6.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AFresno Grizzlies · 6 IPFIP 4.31 → 5.29 (+0.98)K% 25.0% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.740	18.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.71%	—	×1.180	12.64%
HR / BF /BF	3.57%	÷1.186	×1.300	3.91%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 137).

Result: FIP 4.31 → 5.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 5 IPFIP 8.34 → 8.44 (+0.10)K% 8.0% → 6.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	8.00%	—	×0.860	6.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.00%	—	×0.900	10.80%
HR / BF /BF	8.00%	÷1.062	×1.100	8.29%

Result: FIP 8.34 → 8.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 46 IPFIP 4.06 → 4.22 (+0.16)K% 22.3% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.28%	—	×0.880	19.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.43%	—	×1.050	7.80%
HR / BF /BF	3.47%	÷1.172	×1.100	3.25%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 134).

Result: FIP 4.06 → 4.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Rolison (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.20	17.2%	11.7%	3.1%	—	5.52	16.2%	4.0%	38	+0.32	—	—	—
John Rheinecker L 2007 · 5.13 FIP	28	SW	5.13	16.7%	10.9%	3.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	121	78
Kelvin Marte L 2017 · 4.74 FIP	29	SW	4.74	16.1%	11.4%	2.8%	.300	5.25	12.0%	1.2%	71	+0.51	3.44	360	77
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	76
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	74
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	73
Bobby Jones L 2002 · 5.24 FIP	30	SU	5.24	14.3%	12.7%	3.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	321	72
Randy Keisler L 2005 · 5.07 FIP	29	SW	5.07	16.4%	9.9%	3.8%	.295	5.51	6.5%	0.0%	17	+0.44	5.07	135	70
Tommy Phelps L 2004 · 4.80 FIP	30	SW	4.80	19.4%	8.3%	4.2%	.286	3.98	13.2%	5.7%	23	-0.82	3.39	120	70
Jack Taschner L 2008 · 4.09 FIP	30	SU	4.09	17.2%	9.7%	2.2%	.323	4.73	15.2%	3.0%	49	+0.64	3.14	189	70
Keith Hessler L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	29	SU	4.96	19.8%	13.3%	3.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	228	69
Kyle Hunter L 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SU	4.50	14.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	188	69
Kelly Wunsch L 2002 · 4.60 FIP	30	SU	4.60	15.9%	13.0%	2.2%	.242	3.54	20.8%	8.3%	60	-1.06	3.36	175	68
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	68
Valerio De Los Santos L 2003 · 4.97 FIP	30	SU	4.97	17.1%	11.0%	3.5%	.237	4.47	16.3%	5.7%	34	-0.50	3.40	239	68
Stephen Randolph L 2004 · 5.69 FIP	30	SU	5.69	15.8%	18.8%	2.8%	.252	5.97	28.2%	9.0%	13	+0.28	4.83	155	67
Tom Martin L 2000 · 4.16 FIP	30	SU	4.16	14.7%	9.1%	2.1%	.274	4.29	21.8%	12.3%	68	+0.12	3.40	303	67
Jose Meraz L 2017 · 4.34 FIP	29	SU	4.34	16.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.282	3.80	10.5%	-2.0%	30	-0.54	3.78	110	66
Eric DuBose L 2005 · 5.45 FIP	29	SW	5.45	12.6%	14.1%	3.0%	.253	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	178	66
Aaron Fultz L 2004 · 4.16 FIP	30	SU	4.16	17.1%	9.7%	2.3%	.294	3.54	18.9%	11.5%	181	-0.62	3.46	480	66
Aaron Brown L 2022 · 5.38 FIP	30	SU	5.38	21.3%	12.5%	4.5%	.253	—	—	—	—	—	4.04	269	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	39	17.3%	11.2%	1.36	4.92
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Ken Patterson ('88-'94, 0 WAR*)	1.6	53	17.7%*	11.7%*	1.46*	4.15*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*