Tyler Rogers
P
Toronto Blue Jays
Age 35
RHP
6'3" / 180 lbs
MLB
peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION44 act + 22 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8576vR 67
ERA2.80
FIP3.34
K%12.8%
BB%3.5%
K-BB%9.3%
ROS IP22
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1083.2
Whiff%
p1013.7%
K%
p1012.2%
xwOBA vs
p900.258
FB+5.2 (78%)
SI (78%)
SL-1.0 (22%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 90 | 355 | 101 | 25 | 5 | 0% | 1.7 | 21.4% | 7.4% | 14.0% | 1.5% | 2.00 | 3.07 | — |
| 2015 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 90 | 355 | 101 | 25 | 5 | 0% | 1.7 | 28.5% | 7.0% | 21.4% | 1.4% | 2.00 | 2.41 | — |
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 59 | 1 | 66 | 285 | 46 | 22 | 1 | 2% | 1.1 | 13.6% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 0.3% | 3.27 | 3.17 | — |
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 59 | 1 | 66 | 285 | 46 | 22 | 1 | 2% | 1.1 | 16.1% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 0.4% | 3.27 | 2.90 | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 55 | 0 | 76 | 314 | 43 | 25 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 12.1% | 8.4% | 3.7% | 0.9% | 2.37 | 3.64 | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 55 | 0 | 76 | 314 | 43 | 25 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 13.7% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 0.6% | 2.37 | 3.30 | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 51 | 0 | 68 | 273 | 60 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 19.3% | 8.1% | 11.3% | 1.6% | 2.13 | 3.38 | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 51 | 0 | 68 | 273 | 60 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.0% | 7.7% | 14.3% | 1.5% | 2.13 | 3.03 | — |
| 2019 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 66 | 1 | 80 | 340 | 71 | 29 | 6 | 2% | 1.2 | 18.9% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 1.8% | 3.50 | 3.64 | +1.2 |
| 2019 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 66 | 1 | 80 | 340 | 71 | 29 | 6 | 2% | 1.2 | 20.9% | 8.5% | 12.4% | 1.8% | 3.50 | 3.39 | +1.5 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 29 | 0 | 28 | 123 | 27 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 4.9% | 17.1% | 1.8% | 4.50 | 2.83 | +0.6 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 29 | 0 | 28 | 123 | 27 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 4.9% | 17.1% | 1.6% | 4.50 | 2.74 | +0.6 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 80 | 0 | 81 | 326 | 55 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.9% | 4.0% | 12.9% | 1.7% | 2.22 | 3.10 | +1.8 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 80 | 0 | 81 | 326 | 55 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.9% | 4.0% | 12.9% | 1.5% | 2.22 | 3.03 | +1.9 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 68 | 0 | 76 | 319 | 49 | 23 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.4% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 1.0% | 3.57 | 3.28 | +1.4 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 68 | 0 | 76 | 319 | 49 | 23 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.4% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 0.9% | 3.57 | 3.23 | +1.5 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 68 | 0 | 74 | 309 | 60 | 17 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.4% | 5.5% | 13.9% | 2.5% | 3.04 | 3.51 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 68 | 0 | 74 | 309 | 60 | 17 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.4% | 5.5% | 13.9% | 2.3% | 3.04 | 3.40 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 77 | 0 | 70 | 290 | 51 | 4 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 17.6% | 1.4% | 16.2% | 2.6% | 2.82 | 3.23 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 77 | 0 | 70 | 290 | 51 | 4 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 17.6% | 1.4% | 16.2% | 2.4% | 2.82 | 3.11 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB | New York Mets | 81 | 0 | 77 | 299 | 48 | 7 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.1% | 2.3% | 13.7% | 1.3% | 1.98 | 2.78 | +1.9 |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB | New York Mets | 81 | 0 | 77 | 299 | 48 | 7 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.1% | 2.3% | 13.7% | 1.3% | 1.98 | 2.80 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 45 | 0 | 44 | 180 | 22 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 12.2% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 0.0% | 1.65 | 2.70 | +0.9 |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | TOR | 21 | 0 | 22 | 91 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 12.8% | 3.5% | 9.3% | 1.6% | 2.80 | 3.34 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | TOR | 21 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 12.8% | 3.5% | 9.3% | 1.6% | 2.80 | 3.34 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 35 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 65 | 271 | 34 | 12 | 1 | — | — | 12.4% | 4.5% | 7.9% | 0.5% | 2.03 | 2.91 | +1.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 35 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 65 | 275 | 34 | 12 | 1 | — | — | 12.2% | 4.4% | 7.8% | 0.5% | 2.03 | 2.92 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | TOR | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 29 | 10 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 11.9% | 4.1% | 7.8% | 2.0% | 3.72 | 4.09 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | TOR | 48 | 0 | 50 | 212 | 23 | 10 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 10.8% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 2.4% | 4.18 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | TOR | 41 | 0 | 43 | 183 | 18 | 10 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 10.0% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 4.61 | 4.89 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | TOR | 55 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 29 | 10 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 11.9% | 4.1% | 7.8% | 2.0% | 3.72 | 4.09 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | TOR | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 23 | 10 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 10.8% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 2.4% | 4.18 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | TOR | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 18 | 10 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 10.0% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 4.61 | 4.89 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 630 | 0 | 640 | 2646 | 410 | 115 | 45 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.5% | 4.4% | 11.1% | 1.7% | 3.01 | 3.27 | +16.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 197 | 0 | 200 | 826 | 128 | 36 | 14 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.5% | 4.4% | 11.1% | 1.7% | 3.01 | 3.27 | +5.0 | ||
| Career | — | 731 | 2 | 829 | 3413 | 582 | 207 | 50 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.1% | 6.1% | 11.0% | 1.5% | 2.68 | 3.23 | +21.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 176 | 0 | 200 | 823 | 140 | 50 | 12 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.1% | 6.1% | 11.0% | 1.5% | 2.68 | 3.23 | +5.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tyler Rogers (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.90 | 13.3% | 2.8% | 2.2% | — | 4.45 | 11.0% | 6.3% | 151 | +0.55 | — | — | — |
| Brad Ziegler R 2026 · 3.22 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.22 | 13.7% | 5.3% | 1.1% | .214 | 3.19 | 16.7% | 10.7% | 189 | -0.03 | 2.61 | 257 | 69 |
| Peter Moylan R 2027 · 3.10 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.10 | 18.4% | 8.2% | 0.9% | .259 | 3.82 | 18.2% | 9.1% | 145 | +0.72 | 3.10 | 174 | 56 |
| Matt Belisle R 2026 · 3.16 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.16 | 16.8% | 8.7% | 0.7% | .300 | 3.49 | 18.8% | 13.8% | 141 | +0.33 | 2.51 | 174 | 56 |
| Blaine Boyer R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.76 | 9.2% | 5.0% | 1.5% | .319 | 4.35 | 15.3% | 7.3% | 78 | +0.59 | 3.21 | 209 | 54 |
| Erubiel Gonzalez R 2027 · 3.54 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.54 | 12.4% | 6.0% | 1.3% | .328 | 3.35 | 14.8% | 10.4% | 69 | -0.19 | 3.03 | 119 | 51 |
| Logan Kensing R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.26 | 16.5% | 7.9% | 1.0% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.77 | 172 | 51 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.58 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 251 | 51 |
| Edward Mujica R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.59 | 14.2% | 2.4% | 4.3% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.97 | 212 | 50 |
| Ramon E Ramirez R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.63 | 14.0% | 5.8% | 1.8% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.35 | 140 | 50 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.92 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 186 | 50 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.32 | 12.9% | 7.7% | 0.6% | .250 | 4.56 | 15.8% | 8.7% | 29 | +1.24 | 3.32 | 119 | 48 |
| Luis Ayala R 2028 · 3.02 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.02 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 1.7% | .270 | 3.22 | 12.1% | 5.9% | 57 | +0.20 | 2.99 | 119 | 48 |
| Hector Navarro R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.75 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 4.1% | .281 | 2.93 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.82 | 2.30 | 126 | 48 |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 47 |
| Brandon Kintzler R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.66 | 13.9% | 7.9% | 3.1% | .237 | 4.95 | 15.6% | 11.3% | 30 | +0.29 | 2.47 | 332 | 47 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 47 |
| Joe Smith R 2026 · 2.90 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.90 | 22.9% | 5.2% | 2.0% | .254 | 4.50 | 17.3% | 12.6% | 67 | +1.60 | 1.86 | 309 | 46 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.76 | 14.9% | 9.1% | 3.2% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 244 | 46 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.17 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 0.6% | .288 | 4.50 | 16.3% | 9.1% | 116 | +1.33 | 3.17 | 225 | 46 |
| Yusmeiro Petit R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.15 | 19.3% | 5.7% | 3.6% | .254 | 4.78 | 12.7% | 8.7% | 90 | +0.63 | 2.64 | 517 | 45 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 54 | 11.7% | 4.1% | 0.89 | 3.90 |
| Dan Otero ('19) | 5 | 53 | 16.7% | 3.0% | 1.12 | 3.93 |
| Richard Bleier ('23) | 7 | 45 | 13.5% | 3.8% | 0.69 | 3.33 |
| Alex Wilson ('18) | 4 | 66 | 16.0% | 5.8% | 0.85 | 3.20 |
| Alex Claudio ('21) | 5 | 59 | 16.3% | 6.1% | 0.76 | 3.66 |
| Brandon Kintzler ('21) | 6 | 50 | 16.2% | 6.3% | 0.91 | 3.57 |
| Austin Pruitt ('23) | 5 | 61 | 16.9% | 5.6% | 1.22 | 4.45 |