Tyler Rogers
P
Toronto Blue Jays
+0.5
WAR
Age 35
RHP
6'3" / 180 lbs
MLB
peak 0.5 · 2026
ERA3.22
FIP3.63
xFIP4.20
SIERA3.82
K%18.0%
BB%3.7%
K-BB%14.3%
IP65
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2026
STUF3535
CTRL7575
CMD5050
K†3030
FB Velo
p1082.6
Whiff%
p1011.6%
K%
p1010.0%
xwOBA vs
p900.214
FB+5.2 (77%)
SI (77%)
SL-1.0 (23%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 52 | 0 | 90 | 355 | 101 | 25 | 5 | 21.4% | 7.4% | 1.6% | 2.00 | 3.09 | +2.2 |
| 2016 | 25 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 59 | 1 | 66 | 285 | 46 | 22 | 1 | 13.6% | 8.2% | 0.4% | 3.27 | 3.19 | +1.4 |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 55 | 0 | 76 | 314 | 43 | 25 | 2 | 12.1% | 8.4% | 0.8% | 2.37 | 3.58 | +1.3 |
| 2018 | 27 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 51 | 0 | 68 | 273 | 60 | 21 | 4 | 19.3% | 8.1% | 1.6% | 2.13 | 3.38 | +1.3 |
| 2019 | 28 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 66 | 1 | 80 | 340 | 71 | 29 | 6 | 18.9% | 8.9% | 1.9% | 3.50 | 3.67 | +1.3 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 29 | 0 | 28 | 123 | 27 | 6 | 2 | 22.0% | 4.9% | 1.4% | 4.50 | 2.65 | +0.7 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 80 | 0 | 81 | 326 | 55 | 13 | 5 | 16.9% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 2.22 | 3.08 | +1.9 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 68 | 0 | 76 | 319 | 49 | 23 | 3 | 15.4% | 7.2% | 0.9% | 3.57 | 3.23 | +1.6 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 68 | 0 | 74 | 309 | 60 | 17 | 7 | 19.4% | 5.5% | 2.2% | 3.04 | 3.37 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 77 | 0 | 70 | 290 | 51 | 4 | 7 | 17.6% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.82 | 3.27 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB | New York Mets | 81 | 0 | 77 | 299 | 48 | 7 | 4 | 16.1% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 1.98 | 2.75 | +2.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 9 | 0 | 10 | 41 | 5 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.93 | — | — |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | TOR | 56 | — | 56 | 234 | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10.2% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 3.06 | 4.27 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 35 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 65 | 275 | 29 | 10 | 5 | 10.5% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 2.74 | 3.64 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 11 | 61 | 258 | 26 | 10 | 5 | 10.0% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 3.74 | 4.28 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | TOR | 57 | — | 57 | 239 | 24 | 10 | 5 | 10.0% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 4.13 | 4.39 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | TOR | 52 | — | 52 | 220 | 22 | 10 | 5 | 10.0% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 4.35 | 4.50 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 695 | 2 | 795 | 3274 | 565 | 199 | 49 | 17.3% | 6.1% | 1.5% | 2.72 | 3.23 | +18.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 175 | 1 | 200 | 823 | 142 | 50 | 12 | 17.3% | 6.1% | 1.5% | 2.72 | 3.23 | +4.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tyler Rogers (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.27 | 10.2% | 3.7% | 2.2% | — | 4.38 | 10.0% | 5.9% | 170 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Brad Ziegler R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.30 | 13.7% | 5.3% | 1.2% | .214 | 3.23 | 16.7% | 10.7% | 189 | -0.07 | 2.61 | 257 | 67 |
| Doug Fister R 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.68 | 13.8% | 6.6% | 3.5% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 455 | 59 |
| Blaine Boyer R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.71 | 9.2% | 5.0% | 1.4% | .319 | 4.46 | 15.3% | 7.3% | 78 | +0.75 | 3.32 | 209 | 56 |
| Mike Fiers R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.67 | 14.4% | 6.2% | 3.6% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 918 | 55 |
| Matt Belisle R 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.20 | 16.8% | 8.7% | 0.8% | .300 | 3.38 | 18.8% | 13.8% | 141 | +0.18 | 2.49 | 174 | 52 |
| Roberto Hernandez R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.35 | 13.8% | 7.0% | 2.8% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 171 | 52 |
| Erubiel Gonzalez R 2027 · 3.44 FIP | 36 | SW | 3.44 | 12.4% | 6.0% | 1.1% | .328 | 3.24 | 14.8% | 10.4% | 69 | -0.20 | 3.00 | 119 | 51 |
| Sergio Mitre R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.85 | 9.7% | 4.8% | 3.6% | .282 | 4.54 | 11.8% | 5.3% | 103 | -0.31 | 4.54 | 156 | 51 |
| Peter Moylan R 2027 · 3.11 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.11 | 18.4% | 8.2% | 0.9% | .259 | 3.86 | 18.2% | 9.1% | 145 | +0.75 | 3.11 | 174 | 50 |
| Ivan Maldonado R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.63 | 12.8% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .269 | 5.47 | 6.4% | -3.3% | 104 | +0.84 | 4.63 | 172 | 50 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.52 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.4% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.57 | 251 | 49 |
| Logan Kensing R 2026 · 3.28 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.28 | 16.5% | 7.9% | 1.0% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 172 | 49 |
| Alfredo Aceves R 2025 · 5.04 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.04 | 8.9% | 8.9% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.78 | 160 | 48 |
| Shaun Marcum R 2024 · 4.03 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.03 | 17.8% | 6.0% | 3.0% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.03 | 123 | 48 |
| Ramon E Ramirez R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.50 | 14.0% | 5.8% | 1.6% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 140 | 48 |
| Edward Mujica R 2025 · 4.37 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.37 | 14.2% | 2.4% | 3.9% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.02 | 212 | 47 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.32 | 12.9% | 7.7% | 0.6% | .250 | 4.65 | 15.8% | 8.7% | 29 | +1.33 | 3.32 | 119 | 47 |
| Hector Navarro R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.37 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 3.4% | .281 | 2.96 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.41 | 2.30 | 126 | 47 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.11 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 186 | 47 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2027 · 4.12 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.12 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .267 | 6.46 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.34 | 4.12 | 145 | 46 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.