Tyler Rogers — OGILVIE

Tyler Rogers P Toronto Blue Jays

Age 35 RHP 6'3" / 180 lbs MLB peak 0.4 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION67 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9082vR 74

ERA3.05

FIP3.59

K%13.4%

BB%4.3%

K-BB%9.1%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 72 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL6060

CMD5050

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1083.3

Whiff%

p1014.9%

p1013.4%

xwOBA vs

p900.257

FB+5.2 (76%)

SI (76%)

SL-1.0 (24%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	90	355	101	25	5	0%	1.7	21.4%	7.4%	14.0%	1.6%	2.00	3.09	—
2015	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	90	355	101	25	5	0%	1.7	28.5%	7.0%	21.4%	1.4%	2.00	2.41	—
2016	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	1	66	285	46	22	1	2%	1.1	13.6%	8.2%	5.4%	0.4%	3.27	3.19	—
2016	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	59	1	66	285	46	22	1	2%	1.1	16.1%	7.7%	8.4%	0.4%	3.27	2.90	—
2017	26	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	55	0	76	314	43	25	2	0%	1.4	12.1%	8.4%	3.7%	0.8%	2.37	3.57	—
2017	26	AAA RAW	Sacramento River Cats	55	0	76	314	43	25	2	0%	1.4	13.7%	8.0%	5.7%	0.6%	2.37	3.30	—
2018	27	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	51	0	68	273	60	21	4	0%	1.3	19.3%	8.1%	11.3%	1.6%	2.13	3.38	—
2018	27	AAA RAW	Sacramento River Cats	51	0	68	273	60	21	4	0%	1.3	22.0%	7.7%	14.3%	1.5%	2.13	3.03	—
2019	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	66	1	80	340	71	29	6	2%	1.2	18.9%	8.9%	10.0%	1.9%	3.50	3.67	+0.8
2019	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	66	1	80	340	71	29	6	2%	1.2	20.9%	8.5%	12.4%	1.8%	3.50	3.39	+1.1
2020	29	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	29	0	28	123	27	6	2	0%	1.0	22.0%	4.9%	17.1%	1.8%	4.50	2.83	+0.6
2020	29	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	29	0	28	123	27	6	2	0%	1.0	22.0%	4.9%	17.1%	1.6%	4.50	2.74	+0.6
2021	30	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	80	0	81	326	55	13	5	0%	1.0	16.9%	4.0%	12.9%	1.7%	2.22	3.09	+1.4
2021	30	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	80	0	81	326	55	13	5	0%	1.0	16.9%	4.0%	12.9%	1.5%	2.22	3.03	+1.5
2022	31	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	68	0	76	319	49	23	3	0%	1.1	15.4%	7.2%	8.2%	1.0%	3.57	3.27	+1.2
2022	31	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	68	0	76	319	49	23	3	0%	1.1	15.4%	7.2%	8.2%	0.9%	3.57	3.23	+1.2
2023	32	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	68	0	74	309	60	17	7	0%	1.1	19.4%	5.5%	13.9%	2.4%	3.04	3.50	+0.9
2023	32	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	68	0	74	309	60	17	7	0%	1.1	19.4%	5.5%	13.9%	2.4%	3.04	3.50	+0.9
2023	32	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	68	0	74	309	60	17	7	0%	1.1	19.4%	5.5%	13.9%	2.3%	3.04	3.40	+1.0
2024	33	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	77	0	70	290	51	4	7	0%	0.9	17.6%	1.4%	16.2%	2.6%	2.82	3.22	+1.1
2024	33	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	77	0	70	290	51	4	7	0%	0.9	17.6%	1.4%	16.2%	2.6%	2.82	3.22	+1.1
2024	33	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	77	0	70	290	51	4	7	0%	0.9	17.6%	1.4%	16.2%	2.4%	2.82	3.11	+1.2
2025	34	MLB MLE	New York Mets	81	0	77	299	48	7	4	0%	1.0	16.1%	2.3%	13.7%	1.3%	1.98	2.78	+1.6
2025	34	MLB MLE	New York Mets	81	0	77	299	48	7	4	0%	1.0	16.1%	2.3%	13.7%	1.3%	1.98	2.78	+1.6
2025	34	MLB RAW	New York Mets	81	0	77	299	48	7	4	0%	1.0	16.1%	2.3%	13.7%	1.3%	1.98	2.80	+1.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			489	0	491	2012	343	90	29	0%	1.0	17.0%	4.5%	12.6%	1.4%	2.62	3.02	+9.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	35	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	69	0	67	276	37	17	1	0%	1.0	13.4%	6.2%	7.2%	0.4%	1.75	2.95	+1.3
YTD	35	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	69	0	67	276	37	17	1	0%	1.0	13.4%	6.2%	7.2%	0.4%	1.75	2.95	+1.3
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	35	MLB RAW	TOR	69	0	67	276	37	17	1	0%	1.0	13.4%	6.2%	7.2%	0.4%	1.75	2.95	+1.3
SO FAR	35	MLB RAW	TOR	69	0	67	276	37	17	1	0%	1.0	13.4%	6.2%	7.2%	0.4%	1.75	2.95	+1.3
ROS	35	MLB MLE	TOR	5	0	5	23	3	1	0	0%	1.1	13.4%	4.3%	9.1%	2.0%	3.05	3.59	+0.1
ROS	35	MLB CTX	TOR	5	0	5	21	3	1	0	0%	1.0	13.4%	4.3%	9.1%	2.0%	3.05	3.59	+0.1
2026 TOT	35	MLB MLE	TOR	—	—	72	299	40	18	1	—	—	13.4%	6.0%	7.4%	0.5%	1.85	3.00	+1.5
FULL	35	MLB A+C	TOR	—	—	72	305	40	18	1	—	—	13.2%	5.9%	7.3%	0.5%	1.85	3.00	+1.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	36	MLB MLE	TOR	55	0	58	244	30	12	5	0%	1.0	12.3%	4.9%	7.5%	1.9%	3.74	4.10	+0.3
2028	37	MLB MLE	TOR	48	0	50	212	24	12	5	0%	1.0	11.2%	5.5%	5.7%	2.3%	4.20	4.50	+0.0
2029	38	MLB MLE	TOR	41	0	43	183	18	11	5	0%	1.1	10.1%	6.2%	3.9%	2.8%	4.64	4.93	-0.2
2027	36	MLB CTX	TOR	55	0	58	245	30	12	5	0%	1.1	12.3%	4.9%	7.5%	1.9%	3.74	4.10	+0.3
2028	37	MLB CTX	TOR	48	0	50	211	24	12	5	0%	1.0	11.2%	5.5%	5.7%	2.3%	4.20	4.50	+0.0
2029	38	MLB CTX	TOR	41	0	43	182	18	11	5	0%	1.0	10.1%	6.2%	3.9%	2.8%	4.64	4.93	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		638	0	647	2674	418	126	44	0%	1.0	15.6%	4.7%	10.9%	1.6%	2.98	3.28	+9.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		197	0	200	826	129	39	14	0%	1.0	15.6%	4.7%	10.9%	1.6%	2.98	3.28	+3.0
Career	—	MLE		755	2	852	3509	597	215	51	0%	1.1	17.0%	6.1%	10.9%	1.4%	2.66	3.24	+9.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		177	0	200	823	140	51	12	0%	1.1	17.0%	6.1%	10.9%	1.4%	2.66	3.24	+2.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Rogers (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.90	13.3%	2.8%	2.2%	—	4.47	11.3%	5.9%	151	+0.57	—	—	—
Brad Ziegler R 2015 · 3.24 FIP	35	SU	3.24	13.7%	5.3%	1.1%	.214	3.25	16.7%	10.7%	189	+0.01	2.63	257	69
Kazuhisa Makita R 2019 · 2.81 FIP	34	SU	2.81	18.9%	3.7%	1.5%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	132	63
Jim Johnson R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	35	SU	4.48	16.8%	7.8%	3.3%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	251	58
Blaine Boyer R 2016 · 3.69 FIP	35	SU	3.69	9.2%	5.0%	1.4%	.319	4.39	15.3%	7.3%	78	+0.70	3.24	209	57
Peter Moylan R 2015 · 3.11 FIP	36	SU	3.11	18.4%	8.2%	0.9%	.259	3.84	18.2%	9.1%	145	+0.73	3.11	174	57
Matt Belisle R 2015 · 3.18 FIP	35	SU	3.18	16.8%	8.7%	0.7%	.300	3.50	18.8%	13.8%	141	+0.32	2.51	174	57
Brandon Kintzler R 2020 · 4.65 FIP	35	SU	4.65	13.9%	7.9%	3.1%	.237	4.86	15.6%	11.3%	30	+0.21	2.47	332	53
Logan Kensing R 2017 · 3.28 FIP	35	SU	3.28	16.5%	7.9%	1.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	2.73	172	53
Edward Mujica R 2018 · 4.35 FIP	34	SU	4.35	14.2%	2.4%	3.9%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	212	52
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	186	52
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2015 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	12.4%	6.0%	1.1%	.328	3.26	14.8%	10.4%	69	-0.17	2.99	119	51
Joe Smith R 2019 · 3.00 FIP	35	SU	3.00	22.9%	5.2%	2.1%	.254	4.48	17.3%	12.6%	67	+1.48	1.86	309	51
Ramon E Ramirez R 2017 · 3.49 FIP	35	SU	3.49	14.0%	5.8%	1.5%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	2.37	140	51
Carlos Torres R 2018 · 2.89 FIP	35	SU	2.89	22.3%	7.3%	1.4%	.248	4.28	17.8%	8.8%	62	+1.39	2.89	326	50
Yusmeiro Petit R 2020 · 4.24 FIP	35	SU	4.24	19.3%	5.7%	3.8%	.254	4.92	12.7%	8.7%	90	+0.68	2.56	517	50
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	50
Rudy Gonzalez R 2016 · 3.31 FIP	35	SU	3.31	12.9%	7.7%	0.6%	.250	4.72	15.8%	8.7%	29	+1.41	3.31	119	49
Jared Hughes R 2020 · 4.38 FIP	35	SU	4.38	19.3%	11.0%	2.8%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	358	49
Luke Gregerson R 2018 · 4.73 FIP	34	SU	4.73	21.1%	10.5%	3.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	2.62	192	49
Sergio Romo R 2018 · 3.95 FIP	35	SU	3.95	26.4%	7.0%	4.0%	.303	3.75	24.0%	17.4%	142	-0.20	1.71	371	49

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	54	11.9%	4.6%	0.87	3.91
Alex Claudio ('21)	1.5	59	16.3%	6.1%	0.76	3.66
Brandon Kintzler ('21)	1.5	50	16.2%	6.3%	0.91	3.57
Richard Bleier ('23)	1.6	45	13.5%	3.8%	0.69	3.33
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Adam Cimber ('24)	1.6	52	18.3%	6.6%	0.75	3.75
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38