Richard Bleier
P Rochester Red Wings| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | G | GS | IP | ERA | FIP | K% | BB% | WAR | MLE rates | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 35 | MIX3 levels | 57 | 2 | 53 | 3.40 | 3.06 | 14.7% | 3.9% | 0.9 | K 14.4% · BB 3.2% · FIP 3.06 | |
| 2023 | 36 | MIX3 levels | 36 | 1 | 41 | 4.83 | 4.08 | 13.0% | 4.0% | 0.2 | K 12.1% · BB 3.0% · FIP 4.59 | |
| 2024 | 37 | AAAWSH | 15 | 0 | 17 | 4.32 | 3.82 | 14.7% | 2.9% | — | K 12.6% · BB 2.6% · FIP 4.17 | |
| 2025 | 38 | No MLB games played | ||||||||||
| 2026 | 39 | No MLB games played | ||||||||||
| 2027PROJ | 40 | MLBWSH | 5 | 0 | 5 | 4.29 | 4.48 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 0.0 | ||
| 2028PROJMLE | 41 | MLBWSH | — | — | 0 | 4.66 | 4.91 | 19.4% | 9.4% | — | ||
Grades · Statcast · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 28 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 28 | 26 | 172 | 682 | 65 | 15 | 6 | 93% | 6.1 | 8.0% | 2.4% | 5.6% | 1.1% | 2.57 | 3.31 | — |
| 2015 | 28 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 28 | 26 | 172 | 682 | 65 | 15 | 6 | 93% | 6.1 | 9.5% | 2.2% | 7.3% | 0.9% | 2.57 | 3.06 | — |
| 2016 | 29 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 35 | 10 | 81 | 332 | 38 | 15 | 2 | 29% | 2.3 | 10.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 0.7% | 3.22 | 3.17 | +1.4 |
| 2016 | 29 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 35 | 10 | 81 | 332 | 38 | 15 | 2 | 29% | 2.3 | 11.4% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 0.6% | 3.22 | 3.04 | +1.5 |
| 2017 | 30 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 65 | 0 | 78 | 317 | 41 | 10 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 12.4% | 3.2% | 9.2% | 1.7% | 1.73 | 3.39 | +1.1 |
| 2017 | 30 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 65 | 0 | 78 | 317 | 41 | 10 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 12.9% | 3.2% | 9.8% | 1.9% | 1.73 | 3.43 | +1.0 |
| 2018 | 31 | MLB MLE | Baltimore Orioles | 31 | 0 | 33 | 133 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 11.3% | 2.3% | 9.0% | 0.0% | 1.93 | 2.43 | +0.8 |
| 2018 | 31 | MLB RAW | Baltimore Orioles | 31 | 0 | 33 | 133 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 11.3% | 2.3% | 9.0% | 0.0% | 1.93 | 2.46 | +0.8 |
| 2019 | 32 | MIX MLE | 3 levels | 57 | 2 | 59 | 252 | 32 | 7 | 6 | 4% | 1.0 | 12.8% | 2.6% | 10.2% | 2.3% | 5.16 | 3.61 | +0.7 |
| 2019 | 32 | MIX RAW | 3 levels | 57 | 2 | 59 | 252 | 32 | 7 | 6 | 4% | 1.0 | 12.7% | 2.8% | 9.9% | 2.4% | 5.16 | 3.69 | +0.6 |
| 2020 | 33 | MLB MLE | Miami Marlins | 21 | 0 | 17 | 67 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.8 | 16.4% | 4.5% | 11.9% | 0.0% | 2.16 | 2.28 | +0.5 |
| 2020 | 33 | MLB RAW | Miami Marlins | 21 | 0 | 17 | 67 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.8 | 16.4% | 4.5% | 11.9% | 0.0% | 2.16 | 2.32 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 34 | MLB MLE | Miami Marlins | 68 | 0 | 58 | 225 | 44 | 3 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 19.6% | 1.3% | 18.2% | 1.9% | 2.95 | 2.64 | +1.3 |
| 2021 | 34 | MLB RAW | Miami Marlins | 68 | 0 | 58 | 225 | 44 | 3 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 19.6% | 1.3% | 18.2% | 1.8% | 2.95 | 2.63 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 35 | MIX MLE | 3 levels | 57 | 2 | 53 | 232 | 34 | 9 | 3 | 4% | 0.9 | 14.4% | 3.2% | 11.3% | 1.4% | 3.40 | 3.06 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 35 | MIX RAW | 3 levels | 57 | 2 | 53 | 232 | 34 | 9 | 3 | 4% | 0.9 | 14.7% | 3.9% | 10.8% | 1.3% | 3.40 | 3.06 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 36 | MIX MLE | 3 levels | 36 | 1 | 41 | 177 | 23 | 7 | 5 | 3% | 1.1 | 12.1% | 3.0% | 9.1% | 3.9% | 4.83 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| 2023 | 36 | MIX RAW | 3 levels | 36 | 1 | 41 | 177 | 23 | 7 | 5 | 3% | 1.1 | 13.0% | 4.0% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 4.83 | 4.08 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 37 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | 15 | 0 | 17 | 68 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 12.6% | 2.6% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.32 | 4.17 | — |
| 2024 | 37 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | 15 | 0 | 17 | 68 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 12.6% | 2.6% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.32 | 4.17 | — |
| 2024 | 37 | AAA RAW | Rochester Red Wings | 15 | 0 | 17 | 68 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.7% | 2.9% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 4.32 | 3.82 | — |
| ▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded) | |||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | 335 | 2 | 330 | 1371 | 187 | 40 | 24 | 1% | 1.0 | 13.6% | 2.9% | 10.7% | 1.8% | 3.27 | 3.28 | +5.0 | ||
| ▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 40 | MLB | WSH | 5 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 11.8% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 41 | MLB MLE | WSH | 28 | 0 | 29 | 123 | 24 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 4.66 | 4.91 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 41 | MLB CTX | WSH | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 19.4% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 4.66 | 4.91 | — |
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | RAW | 335 | 2 | 330 | 1371 | 187 | 40 | 24 | 1% | 1.0 | 13.6% | 2.9% | 10.7% | 1.8% | 3.27 | 3.28 | +5.0 | |
| / 200 IP | — | RAW | 203 | 1 | 200 | 830 | 113 | 24 | 15 | 1% | 1.0 | 13.6% | 2.9% | 10.7% | 1.8% | 3.27 | 3.28 | +3.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | 413 | 41 | 608 | 2485 | 294 | 72 | 37 | 10% | 1.5 | 11.8% | 2.9% | 9.0% | 1.5% | 3.06 | 3.29 | +4.9 | |
| / 200 IP | — | MLE | 136 | 13 | 200 | 817 | 97 | 24 | 12 | 10% | 1.5 | 11.8% | 2.9% | 9.0% | 1.5% | 3.06 | 3.29 | +2.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AAARochester Red Wings · 17 IPFIP 3.85 → 4.17 (+0.32)K% 14.7% → 12.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 14.71% | — | ×0.860 | 12.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 2.94% | — | ×0.900 | 2.65% |
| HR / BF /BF | 2.94% | ÷0.986 | ×1.100 | 3.28% |
Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 97).
Result: FIP 3.85 → 4.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAIowa Cubs · 9 IPFIP 3.00 → 3.05 (+0.05)K% 12.2% → 10.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 12.20% | — | ×0.860 | 10.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 7.32% | — | ×0.900 | 6.59% |
| HR / BF /BF | 0.00% | ÷0.965 | ×1.100 | 0.00% |
Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).
Result: FIP 3.00 → 3.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAANorfolk Tides · 15 IPFIP 0.66 → 0.96 (+0.29)K% 28.8% → 25.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 28.85% | — | ×0.880 | 25.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 0.00% | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| HR / BF /BF | 0.00% | ÷0.866 | ×1.100 | 0.00% |
Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 73).
Result: FIP 0.66 → 0.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 58 IPFIP 3.26 → 3.44 (+0.18)K% 10.4% → 9.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 10.42% | — | ×0.880 | 9.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 4.58% | — | ×1.050 | 4.81% |
| HR / BF /BF | 0.83% | ÷0.996 | ×1.100 | 0.92% |
Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).
Result: FIP 3.26 → 3.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAHarrisburg Senators · 103 IPFIP 3.33 → 3.69 (+0.36)K% 9.9% → 8.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 9.90% | — | ×0.810 | 8.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 1.98% | — | ×1.100 | 2.18% |
| HR / BF /BF | 1.49% | ÷0.986 | ×1.200 | 1.81% |
Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 97).
Result: FIP 3.33 → 3.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 69 IPFIP 2.66 → 2.77 (+0.11)K% 9.0% → 7.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 8.99% | — | ×0.880 | 7.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 2.52% | — | ×1.050 | 2.64% |
| HR / BF /BF | 0.00% | ÷1.183 | ×1.100 | 0.00% |
Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 137).
Result: FIP 2.66 → 2.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Career Comps
Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.
| Player | 162s | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2.0 | 45 | 14.9% | 4.9% | 0.78 | 3.49 |
| Dan Otero ('19) | 2.0 | 58 | 15.8% | 3.4% | 0.82 | 3.39 |
| Luis Ayala ('13) | 2.8 | 62 | 15.7% | 5.9% | 0.88 | 3.34 |
| Steve Howe ('96) | 1.1 | 45 | 12.3% | 5.3% | 0.75 | 3.57 |
| Ramon Hernandez ('67-'77, 6 WAR*) | 2.2 | 61 | 19.7%* | 7.3%* | 0.77* | 3.65* |
| Tony Castillo ('88-'98, 4 WAR*) | 2.6 | 59 | 18.5%* | 7.3%* | 0.98* | 3.76* |
| Bill Castro ('74-'83, 5 WAR*) | 2.7 | 68 | 13.8%* | 6.2%* | 0.83* | 3.64* |