Christian Encarnacion-Strand
1B Norfolk Tides| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | INTLGlendale Dese… | 32 | .385/.484/.462 | 0 | 1 | 168 | — | |
| 2024 | 24 | MLBCIN | 123 | .190/.223/.293 | 2 | 0 | 39 | -1.0 | |
| 2025 | 25 | AAACIN | 252 | .245/.311/.493 | 11 | 0 | 68 | — | .188/.243/.372 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLBCIN | 137 | .208/.237/.377 | 6 | 0 | 62 | -1.4 | |
| 2026 | 26 | AAABAL | 297 | .266/.309/.544 | 19 | 2 | 72 | — | .212/.247/.410 |
| 2026 | 26 | MLBBAL | 213 | .277/.329/.513 | 11 | 1 | 124 | 0.2 | |
| 2027PROJ45% MLB | 27 | MLBBAL | 107 | .235/.280/.431 | 5 | 1 | 92 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ49% MLB | 28 | MLBBAL | 165 | .233/.278/.426 | 7 | 1 | 90 | -0.1 |
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 50
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 92 | 87 | 34 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 391 | 424 | 598 | 1.022 | 207 | 526 | 28 | 5 | 447 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 208 | 190 | 60 | 8 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 52 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 316 | 369 | 568 | 937 | 253 | 375 | 25 | 5 | 405 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 330 | 294 | 87 | 23 | 3 | 20 | 30 | 85 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 296 | 371 | 599 | 969 | 303 | 353 | 26 | 9 | 417 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | — | 241 | 222 | 60 | 7 | 0 | 13 | 14 | 69 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 270 | 328 | 477 | 805 | 207 | 336 | 29 | 6 | 356 | 120 | +6 | +0 | -2 | -10 | +5 | -0.0 |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 316 | 278 | 92 | 21 | 2 | 20 | 33 | 69 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 331 | 408 | 637 | 1.044 | 306 | 377 | 22 | 10 | 447 | 132 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | — | 123 | 116 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 35 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 223 | 293 | 516 | 103 | 247 | 28 | 3 | 228 | 39 | -9 | +0 | -0 | -3 | +3 | -1.0 |
| 2024 | 24 | INTL | Glendale Desert Dogs | — | 32 | 26 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 385 | 484 | 462 | 945 | 77 | 556 | 28 | 12 | 417 | 168 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | — | 137 | 130 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 208 | 237 | 377 | 614 | 169 | 223 | 23 | 2 | 267 | 62 | -6 | -1 | -3 | -7 | +3 | -1.4 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 252 | 229 | 56 | 20 | 2 | 11 | 17 | 62 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 245 | 311 | 493 | 804 | 249 | 287 | 25 | 7 | 350 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | — | 213 | 195 | 54 | 13 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 55 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 277 | 329 | 513 | 841 | 236 | 328 | 26 | 5 | 363 | 124 | +6 | -0 | +0 | -9 | +5 | 0.2 |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 297 | 274 | 73 | 15 | 2 | 19 | 14 | 91 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 266 | 309 | 544 | 853 | 277 | 320 | 31 | 5 | 362 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 714 | 663 | 163 | 30 | 0 | 32 | 32 | 191 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 246 | 293 | 436 | 729 | 190 | 294 | 27 | 4 | 319 | 102 | +2 | -1 | -5 | -29 | +15 | -1.7 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 92 | 89 | 26 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 292 | 315 | 461 | 776 | 169 | 456 | 39 | 3 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 208 | 194 | 53 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 63 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 273 | 316 | 485 | 800 | 211 | 335 | 30 | 3 | 333 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 330 | 303 | 72 | 19 | 2 | 16 | 21 | 109 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 238 | 298 | 472 | 770 | 234 | 308 | 33 | 6 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MLB MLE | Cincinnati Reds | — | 241 | 222 | 59 | 7 | 0 | 12 | 14 | 69 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 266 | 324 | 459 | 783 | 194 | 336 | 29 | 6 | 346 | 120 | +6 | +0 | -2 | -10 | +5 | -0.0 |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 316 | 288 | 82 | 19 | 2 | 14 | 23 | 82 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 285 | 344 | 510 | 854 | 226 | 348 | 26 | 7 | 364 | 132 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB MLE | Cincinnati Reds | — | 123 | 116 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 35 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 223 | 293 | 516 | 103 | 247 | 28 | 3 | 226 | 39 | -9 | +0 | -0 | -3 | +3 | -1.0 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB MLE | Cincinnati Reds | — | 137 | 130 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 208 | 237 | 377 | 614 | 169 | 223 | 23 | 2 | 260 | 62 | -6 | -1 | -3 | -7 | +3 | -1.4 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 252 | 234 | 44 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 76 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 243 | 372 | 615 | 184 | 240 | 30 | 5 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | MLB MLE | Baltimore Orioles | — | 213 | 196 | 54 | 13 | 0 | 11 | 10 | 55 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 276 | 324 | 510 | 834 | 235 | 328 | 26 | 5 | 352 | 124 | +6 | -0 | +0 | -9 | +5 | 0.2 |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 297 | 278 | 59 | 12 | 2 | 13 | 10 | 109 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 212 | 247 | 410 | 657 | 198 | 273 | 37 | 3 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 92 | 89 | 26 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 292 | 315 | 461 | 776 | 169 | 460 | 39 | 3 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A RAW | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 92 | 87 | 34 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 391 | 424 | 598 | 1.022 | 207 | 526 | 28 | 5 | 447 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 538 | 497 | 123 | 26 | 4 | 25 | 27 | 171 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 247 | 301 | 467 | 768 | 219 | 322 | 32 | 5 | 329 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 538 | 484 | 147 | 31 | 5 | 32 | 40 | 137 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 304 | 370 | 587 | 957 | 283 | 362 | 25 | 7 | 413 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 557 | 510 | 141 | 26 | 2 | 26 | 37 | 151 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 276 | 335 | 488 | 823 | 212 | 343 | 27 | 7 | 356 | 127 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 557 | 500 | 152 | 28 | 2 | 33 | 47 | 138 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 304 | 373 | 566 | 939 | 262 | 360 | 25 | 8 | 408 | 127 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 155 | 145 | 28 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 44 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 193 | 230 | 290 | 520 | 97 | 255 | 28 | 3 | 226 | 39 | -11 | +0 | -0 | -3 | +3 | -1.1 |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 155 | 142 | 32 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 44 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 225 | 276 | 324 | 600 | 99 | 303 | 28 | 5 | 267 | 39 | -11 | +0 | -0 | -3 | +3 | -1.1 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 389 | 364 | 72 | 20 | 2 | 14 | 15 | 108 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 198 | 244 | 379 | 623 | 181 | 237 | 28 | 4 | 265 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 389 | 359 | 83 | 24 | 2 | 17 | 20 | 94 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 231 | 285 | 451 | 736 | 220 | 263 | 24 | 5 | 321 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 510 | 474 | 111 | 24 | 2 | 23 | 20 | 164 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 234 | 275 | 439 | 714 | 205 | 299 | 32 | 4 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 510 | 469 | 127 | 28 | 2 | 30 | 25 | 146 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 271 | 317 | 531 | 848 | 260 | 323 | 29 | 5 | 362 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 92 | 89 | 26 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 292 | 315 | 461 | 776 | 169 | 456 | 39 | 3 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 538 | 495 | 123 | 26 | 4 | 25 | 27 | 171 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 248 | 301 | 469 | 770 | 220 | 318 | 32 | 5 | 329 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 557 | 507 | 141 | 26 | 2 | 26 | 37 | 151 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 278 | 335 | 491 | 826 | 213 | 343 | 27 | 7 | 356 | 127 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 155 | 147 | 28 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 44 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 190 | 230 | 286 | 516 | 95 | 247 | 28 | 3 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 389 | 364 | 72 | 20 | 2 | 14 | 15 | 108 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 198 | 244 | 379 | 623 | 181 | 234 | 28 | 4 | 265 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 510 | 478 | 111 | 24 | 2 | 23 | 20 | 164 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 232 | 275 | 435 | 711 | 203 | 296 | 32 | 4 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 155 | 147 | 28 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 44 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 190 | 230 | 286 | 516 | 95 | 247 | 28 | 3 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 389 | 364 | 72 | 20 | 2 | 14 | 15 | 108 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 198 | 244 | 379 | 623 | 181 | 234 | 28 | 4 | 265 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 510 | 478 | 111 | 24 | 2 | 23 | 20 | 164 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 232 | 275 | 435 | 711 | 203 | 296 | 32 | 4 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | BAL | 45% | 431 | 403 | 94 | 20 | 2 | 18 | 19 | 122 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 231 | 276 | 419 | 695 | 189 | 283 | 28 | 4 | 304 | 92 | -4 | +0 | +0 | -8 | +9 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | BAL | 45% | 107 | 100 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 235 | 280 | 431 | 711 | 196 | 288 | 28 | 5 | 311 | 92 | -1 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +2 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | BAL | 49% | 334 | 312 | 71 | 15 | 1 | 13 | 15 | 96 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 229 | 274 | 414 | 688 | 186 | 281 | 29 | 4 | 301 | 90 | -4 | -0 | -0 | -6 | +7 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | BAL | 49% | 165 | 155 | 37 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 47 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 233 | 278 | 426 | 704 | 193 | 286 | 28 | 4 | 308 | 90 | -2 | +0 | -0 | -3 | +4 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 879 | 818 | 200 | 38 | 1 | 39 | 39 | 238 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 244 | 290 | 436 | 727 | 192 | 294 | 27 | 4 | 317 | 96 | -0 | -0 | -5 | -32 | +19 | -1.9 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 605 | 148 | 28 | 1 | 29 | 29 | 176 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 245 | 290 | 438 | 728 | 193 | 294 | 27 | 4 | 317 | 96 | -0 | -0 | -4 | -23 | +14 | -1.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2813 | 2613 | 624 | 132 | 14 | 116 | 133 | 838 | 42 | 21 | 6 | 239 | 287 | 433 | 720 | 194 | 302 | 30 | 5 | 310 | 96 | -5 | -0 | -5 | -39 | +28 | -2.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 604 | 145 | 31 | 3 | 27 | 31 | 194 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 240 | 289 | 435 | 724 | 195 | 304 | 30 | 5 | 310 | 96 | -2 | -0 | -3 | -20 | +14 | -1.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAANorfolk Tides · 297 PAwOBA .357 → .274 (−83)K% 30.6% → 36.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.64% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 36.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.71% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 3.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.01% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.976 | ×1.003 | 18.41% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.20% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.976 | ×1.003 | 6.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.976 | ×1.003 | 1.04% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 7.29% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.
Result: wOBA .357 → .274; ISO .277 → .196; BABIP .320 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAALouisville Bats · 252 PAwOBA .341 → .268 (−73)K% 24.6% → 30.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.60% | ÷0.975 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.75% | ÷1.002 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 4.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.98% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.90% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.77% | ÷1.049 | ×0.930 | ×0.956 | ×1.018 | 11.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.98% | ÷0.992 | ×0.830 | ×0.956 | ×1.018 | 9.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.20% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.956 | ×1.018 | 1.26% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.59% | ÷0.901 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 5.21% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 110, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 95, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.956.
Result: wOBA .341 → .268; ISO .249 → .194; BABIP .287 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAALouisville Bats · 316 PAwOBA .437 → .364 (−72)K% 21.8% → 26.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.84% | ÷1.004 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.13% | ÷0.993 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 7.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.95% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.44% | ÷0.998 | ×0.930 | ×0.990 | ×1.048 | 22.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.05% | ÷0.938 | ×0.830 | ×0.990 | ×1.048 | 9.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.96% | ÷1.042 | ×0.970 | ×0.990 | ×1.048 | 0.92% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.57% | ÷1.054 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 6.66% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 100, 2B 88, 3B 108, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .437 → .364; ISO .306 → .232; BABIP .377 → .348. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 330 PAwOBA .406 → .326 (−80)K% 25.8% → 32.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.76% | ÷0.993 | ×1.270 | — | — | 32.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.79% | ÷0.983 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 6.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.52% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 1.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.62% | ÷1.021 | ×0.920 | ×0.997 | ×0.998 | 17.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.00% | ÷0.912 | ×0.810 | ×0.997 | ×0.998 | 9.73% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.44% | ÷1.011 | ×0.850 | ×0.997 | ×0.998 | 1.20% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.57% | ÷0.948 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 8.06% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 104, 2B 82, 3B 102, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.
Result: wOBA .406 → .326; ISO .303 → .243; BABIP .353 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 208 PAwOBA .396 → .333 (−63)K% 25.0% → 30.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.010 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.33% | ÷1.019 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 2.96% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.88% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 2.49% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.54% | ÷1.002 | ×0.920 | ×0.974 | ×1.027 | 25.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.80% | ÷1.084 | ×0.910 | ×0.974 | ×1.027 | 4.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.45% | ÷0.912 | ×0.880 | ×0.974 | ×1.027 | 1.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.70% | ÷0.990 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 7.21% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 100, 2B 117, 3B 82, K 102, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.
Result: wOBA .396 → .333; ISO .253 → .206; BABIP .375 → .335. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 92 PAwOBA .434 → .326 (−108)K% 28.3% → 39.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.26% | ÷0.979 | ×1.360 | — | — | 39.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.43% | ÷0.976 | ×0.690 | — | — | 3.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 42.62% | ÷1.066 | ×0.920 | — | — | 36.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.28% | ÷0.909 | ×0.830 | — | — | 2.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.28% | ÷0.937 | ×0.910 | — | — | 3.18% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.56% | ÷0.908 | ×0.800 | — | — | 5.78% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 113, 2B 82, 3B 87, K 96, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .434 → .326; ISO .207 → .161; BABIP .526 → .456. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .