Jack Perkins
P
Las Vegas Aviators
+1.1
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'1" / 220 lbs
AAA
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 1.2 · 2027
ERA4.09
FIP4.02
xFIP3.51
SIERA2.74
K%25.6%
BB%11.0%
K-BB%14.6%
IP83
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.2peak
2027
K†6565
FB Velo
p7196.0
Whiff%
p9032.2%
K%
p5423.0%
xwOBA vs
p650.297
FB+1.7 (41%)
CH+0.7 (20%)
CT (9%)
SI (1%)
SL-1.3 (31%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | A | Stockton Ports | 6 | 2 | 10 | 38 | 14 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.70 | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 22 | 20 | 108 | 463 | 93 | 47 | 5 | 15.8% | 11.4% | 1.2% | 4.10 | 3.89 | +1.7 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 18 | 16 | 78 | 321 | 103 | 35 | 2 | 25.7% | 12.2% | 0.8% | 2.88 | 2.91 | +1.9 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Athletics | 21 | 13 | 83 | 338 | 105 | 38 | 7 | 28.7% | 11.5% | 2.1% | 3.48 | 3.30 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Athletics | 6 | 0 | 13 | 55 | 16 | 8 | 1 | — | — | — | 5.68 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | OAK | 14 | 14 | 78 | 330 | 90 | 36 | 9 | 27.3% | 11.0% | 2.7% | 4.03 | 4.05 | +0.9 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 91 | 385 | 106 | 44 | 10 | 27.5% | 11.5% | 2.6% | 4.26 | 3.49 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 16 | 16 | 87 | 366 | 98 | 38 | 10 | 26.9% | 10.3% | 2.6% | 3.94 | 3.95 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 16 | 16 | 87 | 369 | 98 | 37 | 10 | 26.5% | 10.2% | 2.7% | 3.99 | 4.00 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 16 | 16 | 85 | 360 | 93 | 36 | 10 | 25.8% | 10.1% | 2.7% | 4.06 | 4.09 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 15 | 15 | 83 | 349 | 88 | 35 | 10 | 25.2% | 10.2% | 2.8% | 4.14 | 4.18 | +0.9 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 15 | 15 | 80 | 337 | 90 | 32 | 10 | 26.6% | 9.5% | 2.9% | 4.07 | 4.02 | +1.0 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 14 | 14 | 77 | 323 | 84 | 31 | 10 | 25.9% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.11 | 4.14 | +0.8 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 13 | 13 | 73 | 309 | 78 | 30 | 9 | 25.3% | 9.8% | 3.1% | 4.20 | 4.26 | +0.7 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | OAK | 13 | 13 | 70 | 293 | 72 | 29 | 9 | 24.6% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 4.32 | 4.40 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | OAK | 12 | 12 | 66 | 277 | 66 | 28 | 9 | 23.8% | 10.2% | 3.3% | 4.46 | 4.55 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | OAK | 11 | 11 | 61 | 258 | 60 | 27 | 9 | 23.1% | 10.5% | 3.4% | 4.61 | 4.72 | +0.2 |
| 2037 | 37 | MLB | OAK | 57 | — | 57 | 240 | 53 | 26 | 8 | 22.3% | 10.8% | 3.5% | 4.78 | 4.89 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 73 | 51 | 291 | 1215 | 283 | 141 | 16 | 23.3% | 11.6% | 1.4% | 3.62 | 3.35 | +6.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 35 | 200 | 835 | 195 | 97 | 11 | 23.3% | 11.6% | 1.4% | 3.62 | 3.35 | +4.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jack Perkins (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.05 | 27.3% | 11.0% | 2.7% | — | 4.01 | 26.4% | 16.2% | 259 | -0.04 | — | — | — |
| Yariel Rodríguez R 2027 · 3.76 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.76 | 25.1% | 11.8% | 2.3% | .275 | 3.86 | 22.1% | 11.7% | 73 | +0.10 | 3.76 | 180 | 73 |
| Hansel Robles R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.03 | 22.1% | 11.6% | 4.2% | .267 | 3.59 | 25.5% | 17.6% | 145 | -1.44 | 2.71 | 469 | 72 |
| Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.98 | 25.0% | 11.5% | 2.8% | .306 | 4.10 | 22.5% | 14.0% | 74 | +0.12 | 3.98 | 481 | 71 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.50 | 22.7% | 8.4% | 2.3% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 368 | 70 |
| TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.16 | 23.7% | 8.7% | 3.6% | .317 | 3.35 | 22.2% | 15.7% | 50 | -0.81 | 3.35 | 394 | 70 |
| James McArthur R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.54 | 25.0% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .296 | 3.88 | 19.8% | 14.9% | 57 | +0.34 | 3.54 | 352 | 69 |
| Ian Gardeck R 2024 · 2.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 2.93 | 22.4% | 7.7% | 1.4% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.93 | 105 | 68 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.07 | 27.6% | 11.3% | 3.4% | .306 | 4.43 | 21.1% | 11.4% | 292 | +0.36 | 4.07 | 530 | 68 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2028 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.94 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .324 | 3.78 | 22.0% | 12.8% | 135 | -0.16 | 3.62 | 224 | 66 |
| Heath Holder R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.24 | 21.9% | 7.5% | 1.9% | .263 | 5.58 | 19.8% | 4.9% | 85 | +2.34 | 2.92 | 367 | 66 |
| Trent Sellers R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.51 | 21.8% | 13.3% | 2.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 178 | 65 |
| Will Schomberg R 2024 · 3.85 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.85 | 23.3% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 206 | 65 |
| Hayden Wesneski R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.13 | 23.4% | 7.5% | 3.7% | .259 | 4.84 | 22.1% | 17.5% | 32 | +0.71 | 3.55 | 487 | 65 |
| Luis Ortiz R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.02 | 25.1% | 11.0% | 3.0% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 585 | 64 |
| Zack Wheeler R 2027 · 4.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.89 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 4.2% | .327 | 3.06 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.83 | 2.32 | 1,443 | 64 |
| Jon Edwards R 2027 · 3.39 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.39 | 31.7% | 13.1% | 2.4% | .264 | 2.39 | 30.3% | 22.6% | 30 | -1.00 | 2.39 | 132 | 64 |
| Tyler Kinley R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.72 | 25.0% | 10.3% | 2.6% | .295 | 3.80 | 25.0% | 11.7% | 140 | +0.08 | 1.58 | 544 | 64 |
| Blade Tidwell R 2024 · 3.95 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.95 | 22.2% | 9.9% | 2.7% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 350 | 64 |
| Spencer Patton R 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.49 | 26.8% | 9.6% | 2.6% | .295 | 2.83 | 30.3% | 18.1% | 57 | -0.66 | 2.83 | 239 | 64 |
| Kade McClure R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.05 | 21.8% | 7.6% | 3.3% | .317 | 5.63 | 10.4% | -0.1% | 23 | +1.58 | 3.58 | 388 | 63 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 1.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2031
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.7M | +1.0 | $8M | +$7M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.2 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $4M | +1.2 | $10M | +$6M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $6M | +1.0 | $9M | +$3M |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $7M | +0.9 | $4M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $16M | $41M | +$25M | ||