Connor Gillispie

Connor Gillispie P Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 28 RHP 5'11" / 185 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION17 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145137vR 129

ERA5.47

FIP5.91

K%14.6%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%4.1%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.3

Whiff%

p2221.4%

p2618.7%

xwOBA vs

p150.354

FB+0.5 (29%)

CU (1%)

CH-1.2 (15%)

SL-1.3 (30%)

CT-6.6 (25%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	21	12	80	325	78	29	16	57%	3.8	18.5%	10.3%	8.2%	5.9%	4.97	6.08	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	Aberdeen IronBirds	21	12	80	325	78	29	16	57%	3.8	24.0%	8.9%	15.1%	4.9%	4.97	4.84	—
2022	24	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	25	14	97	413	113	48	18	56%	3.9	21.1%	13.4%	7.7%	5.3%	3.79	5.92	—
2022	24	A+ RAW	Aberdeen IronBirds	25	14	97	413	113	48	18	56%	3.9	27.4%	11.6%	15.7%	4.4%	3.79	4.66	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	27	14	116	482	99	37	14	52%	4.3	16.6%	8.4%	8.2%	2.9%	3.89	4.35	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	27	14	116	482	99	37	14	52%	4.3	16.6%	8.4%	8.2%	2.9%	3.89	4.35	—
2023	25	AA RAW	Bowie Baysox	27	14	116	482	99	37	14	52%	4.3	20.5%	7.7%	12.9%	2.9%	3.89	3.92	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	15	121	508	127	53	22	50%	4.0	20.8%	9.1%	11.7%	4.8%	3.93	5.13	-0.3
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	15	121	508	127	53	22	50%	4.0	20.8%	9.1%	11.7%	4.8%	3.93	5.13	-0.3
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	15	121	508	127	53	22	50%	4.0	25.0%	10.4%	14.6%	4.3%	3.93	4.67	+0.3
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	16	73	333	51	36	19	89%	4.1	13.9%	10.1%	3.8%	5.3%	7.73	6.12	-1.0
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	16	73	333	51	36	19	89%	4.1	13.9%	10.1%	3.8%	5.3%	7.73	6.12	-1.0
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	16	73	333	51	36	19	89%	4.1	15.3%	10.8%	4.5%	5.7%	7.73	6.55	-1.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			9	6	34	155	31	16	6	67%	3.8	20.0%	10.3%	9.7%	3.9%	7.15	4.98	-0.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	4	2	17	68	18	7	2	50%	4.3	22.0%	9.3%	12.7%	3.2%	3.63	4.19	—
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	4	2	17	68	18	7	2	50%	4.3	22.0%	9.3%	12.7%	3.2%	3.63	4.19	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AAA RAW	PHI	4	2	17	68	18	7	2	50%	4.3	26.5%	10.3%	16.2%	2.9%	3.63	3.78	—
ROS	28	MLB MLE	PHI	1	1	5	23	3	2	1	100%	5.5	14.6%	10.4%	4.1%	4.3%	5.47	5.91	-0.1
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	PHI	—	—	23	91	21	9	3	—	—	23.5%	10.3%	13.1%	3.3%	4.07	4.61	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	PHI	9	9	62	261	39	28	11	100%	6.9	14.9%	10.5%	4.3%	4.3%	5.67	5.91	-0.7
2028	30	MLB MLE	PHI	9	9	58	246	36	26	11	100%	6.5	14.8%	10.8%	4.1%	4.4%	5.82	5.99	-0.7
2027	29	MLB CTX	PHI	3	3	23	97	14	10	4	100%	7.7	14.9%	10.5%	4.3%	4.3%	5.67	5.91	-0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	PHI	5	5	32	135	20	15	6	100%	6.4	14.8%	10.8%	4.1%	4.4%	5.82	5.99	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	14	89	389	66	41	16	82%	5.3	16.9%	10.5%	6.4%	4.2%	6.28	5.29	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	32	200	870	148	92	36	83%	5.2	16.9%	10.5%	6.4%	4.2%	6.28	5.29	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		125	73	505	2129	394	215	99	58%	4.0	18.5%	10.1%	8.4%	4.7%	4.60	5.38	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	29	200	844	156	85	39	58%	4.0	18.5%	10.1%	8.4%	4.7%	4.60	5.38	-1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Connor Gillispie (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.91	14.6%	10.4%	4.3%	—	5.95	14.9%	4.2%	120	+0.04	—	—	—
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	67
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.85 FIP	27	SP-	5.85	13.9%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	66
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	65
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	65
Kris Medlen R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP-	4.82	15.4%	6.4%	4.0%	.261	5.17	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.35	4.59	261	65
Brady Rodgers R 2019 · 5.44 FIP	28	SP-	5.44	14.7%	9.0%	4.4%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	1.98	354	64
Matt Cain R 2015 · 4.88 FIP	30	SP-	4.88	17.1%	6.8%	4.3%	.296	4.87	15.2%	7.6%	214	-0.01	4.82	294	63
Shawn Dubin R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP-	4.93	19.3%	12.9%	3.3%	.292	3.97	21.8%	11.4%	79	-0.96	3.02	341	63
Noah Song R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	26	SP	6.06	12.0%	13.2%	4.2%	.239	3.84	19.6%	8.0%	114	-2.22	3.68	136	63
Bradin Hagens R 2018 · 4.92 FIP	29	SP-	4.92	14.9%	9.9%	3.3%	.341	5.46	13.2%	0.6%	66	+0.54	3.79	254	63
Alex Cobb R 2016 · 5.26 FIP	28	SP	5.26	14.0%	6.9%	4.5%	.366	4.37	16.3%	10.7%	344	-0.89	2.74	844	62
Luis Niebla R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP-	5.12	11.6%	13.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	156	61
Mat Latos R 2016 · 4.93 FIP	28	SP-	4.93	13.4%	9.6%	3.2%	.279	5.66	16.8%	5.6%	41	+0.73	3.60	244	60
Christian Bergman R 2016 · 4.74 FIP	28	SW	4.74	15.3%	5.6%	4.0%	.309	4.62	15.0%	9.1%	322	-0.12	3.99	467	60
Jayden Murray R 2023 · 5.97 FIP	26	SP-	5.97	16.4%	13.6%	4.6%	.385	3.87	20.2%	9.7%	122	-2.10	3.80	363	60
Jake Walkinshaw R 2023 · 6.54 FIP	27	SP-	6.54	12.7%	9.7%	6.0%	.288	3.94	15.2%	5.6%	118	-2.60	2.84	307	60
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	59
Colin Rea R 2018 · 5.61 FIP	28	SP	5.61	17.6%	11.3%	4.7%	.344	4.14	17.7%	9.8%	198	-1.47	2.57	1,112	59
Kohei Arihara R 2021 · 6.04 FIP	28	SP	6.04	13.5%	7.3%	5.8%	.262	4.58	16.4%	9.2%	94	-1.46	4.58	135	59
David Holman R 2018 · 5.28 FIP	28	SW	5.28	10.0%	8.3%	3.6%	.284	5.80	8.9%	-1.8%	35	+0.52	5.28	129	58

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	62	14.8%	10.6%	1.66	5.65
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50