Connor Gillispie

P Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 29 RHP 5'11" / 185 lbs AAA

Overview

AAASPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX2 levels	30	15	121	3.93	4.67	25.0%	10.4%	1.0	K 21.5% · BB 9.1% · FIP 5.07
2025	27	MIX2 levels	18	16	73	7.73	6.55	15.3%	10.8%	-0.9	K 14.1% · BB 10.1% · FIP 6.10
2026	28	AAAPHI	4	2	17	3.63	3.73	26.5%	10.3%	—	K 22.8% · BB 9.3% · FIP 4.13
2027PROJ	29	MLBPHI	1	1	5	5.29	5.67	15.5%	10.6%	-0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	30	MLBPHI	2	2	16	5.51	5.74	15.6%	10.8%	-0.1
2029PROJ55% MLB	31	MLBPHI	3	3	20	5.68	5.87	15.4%	11.0%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.1 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

K%26

xwOBA vs15

FB Velo10

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsDaulton Jefferies (age 28) · Travis Smith (age 29) · David Griffin (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141133vR 125

ERA5.29

FIP5.67

K%15.5%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%4.9%

Proj IP54

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.3

Whiff%

p2221.4%

p2618.7%

xwOBA vs

p150.354

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	21	12	80	325	78	29	16	57%	3.8	18.5%	10.3%	8.2%	5.9%	4.97	6.08	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	Aberdeen IronBirds	21	12	80	325	78	29	16	57%	3.8	24.0%	8.9%	15.1%	4.9%	4.97	4.84	—
2022	24	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	25	14	97	413	113	48	18	56%	3.9	21.1%	13.4%	7.7%	5.3%	3.79	5.92	—
2022	24	A+ RAW	Aberdeen IronBirds	25	14	97	413	113	48	18	56%	3.9	27.4%	11.6%	15.7%	4.4%	3.79	4.66	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	27	14	116	482	99	37	14	52%	4.3	16.6%	8.4%	8.2%	2.9%	3.89	4.35	—
2023	25	AA RAW	Bowie Baysox	27	14	116	482	99	37	14	52%	4.3	20.5%	7.7%	12.9%	2.9%	3.89	3.92	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	15	121	508	127	53	22	50%	4.0	21.5%	9.1%	12.4%	4.8%	3.93	5.07	+0.5
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	15	121	508	127	53	22	50%	4.0	21.5%	9.1%	12.4%	4.8%	3.93	5.07	+0.5
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	15	121	508	127	53	22	50%	4.0	25.0%	10.4%	14.6%	4.3%	3.93	4.67	+1.0
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	16	73	333	51	36	19	89%	4.1	14.1%	10.1%	4.1%	5.3%	7.73	6.10	-0.6
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	16	73	333	51	36	19	89%	4.1	14.1%	10.1%	4.1%	5.3%	7.73	6.10	-0.6
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	16	73	333	51	36	19	89%	4.1	15.3%	10.8%	4.5%	5.7%	7.73	6.55	-0.9
2026	28	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	4	2	17	68	18	7	2	50%	4.3	22.8%	9.3%	13.5%	3.2%	3.63	4.13	—
2026	28	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	4	2	17	68	18	7	2	50%	4.3	22.8%	9.3%	13.5%	3.2%	3.63	4.13	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	4	2	17	68	18	7	2	50%	4.3	26.5%	10.3%	16.2%	2.9%	3.63	3.73	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			9	6	34	155	31	16	6	67%	3.8	20.0%	10.3%	9.7%	3.9%	7.15	4.98	+0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	PHI	1	1	5	21	3	2	1	100%	5.0	15.5%	10.6%	4.9%	3.9%	5.29	5.67	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	PHI	6	6	43	181	28	19	7	100%	7.1	15.6%	10.8%	4.8%	4.0%	5.51	5.74	-0.2
2029	31	MLB MLE	PHI	5	5	35	149	23	16	6	100%	7.1	15.4%	11.0%	4.4%	4.2%	5.68	5.87	-0.2
2030	32	MLB MLE	PHI	4	4	30	127	19	14	6	100%	7.5	15.0%	11.3%	3.7%	4.4%	5.87	6.04	-0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	PHI	2	2	16	68	11	7	3	100%	8.0	15.6%	10.8%	4.8%	4.0%	5.51	5.74	-0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	PHI	3	3	20	84	13	9	4	100%	6.7	15.4%	11.0%	4.4%	4.2%	5.68	5.87	-0.1
2030	32	MLB CTX	PHI	3	3	20	84	13	10	4	100%	6.7	15.0%	11.3%	3.7%	4.4%	5.87	6.04	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	14	90	390	67	42	16	82%	5.3	17.2%	10.7%	6.4%	4.1%	6.25	5.25	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	31	200	870	150	94	36	82%	5.3	17.2%	10.7%	6.4%	4.1%	6.25	5.25	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		125	73	505	2129	399	215	99	58%	4.0	18.7%	10.1%	8.6%	4.7%	4.60	5.36	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	29	200	844	158	85	39	58%	4.0	18.7%	10.1%	8.6%	4.7%	4.60	5.36	-0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 17 IPFIP 3.78 → 4.13 (+0.34)K% 26.5% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.47%	—	×0.860	22.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.29%	—	×0.900	9.26%
HR / BF /BF	2.94%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.24%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.78 → 4.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASt. Paul Saints · 47 IPFIP 6.88 → 6.47 (−0.41)K% 13.3% → 11.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.33%	—	×0.860	11.47%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.90%	—	×0.900	10.71%
HR / BF /BF	6.19%	÷1.253	×1.100	5.44%

Result: FIP 6.88 → 6.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAColumbus Clippers · 113 IPFIP 4.80 → 5.07 (+0.26)K% 25.0% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.860	21.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.08%	—	×0.900	9.08%
HR / BF /BF	4.62%	÷1.060	×1.100	4.79%

Result: FIP 4.80 → 5.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AABowie Baysox · 116 IPFIP 3.93 → 4.35 (+0.42)K% 20.5% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.54%	—	×0.810	16.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.68%	—	×1.100	8.44%
HR / BF /BF	2.90%	÷1.208	×1.200	2.89%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 142).

Result: FIP 3.93 → 4.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 97 IPFIP 4.65 → 5.92 (+1.27)K% 27.4% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.36%	—	×0.770	21.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.62%	—	×1.150	13.37%
HR / BF /BF	4.36%	÷1.029	×1.250	5.30%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 106).

Result: FIP 4.65 → 5.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 80 IPFIP 4.91 → 6.08 (+1.18)K% 24.0% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.00%	—	×0.770	18.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.92%	—	×1.150	10.26%
HR / BF /BF	4.92%	÷1.041	×1.250	5.91%

Result: FIP 4.91 → 6.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Connor Gillispie (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.67	15.5%	10.6%	3.9%	—	5.87	15.4%	4.4%	108	+0.20	—	—	—
Daulton Jefferies R 2024 · 5.05 FIP	28	SP-	5.05	15.0%	7.1%	4.2%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.23	265	68
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	67
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP-	5.83	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	67
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	67
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	67
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	64
Bradin Hagens R 2018 · 4.92 FIP	29	SP-	4.92	14.9%	9.9%	3.3%	.341	5.46	13.2%	0.6%	66	+0.54	3.79	254	63
Alfonso Sanchez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	29	SW	4.51	12.5%	9.8%	2.2%	.346	7.58	8.6%	1.4%	39	+3.07	4.51	224	63
Chris Heston R 2017 · 5.88 FIP	29	SP-	5.88	13.6%	10.0%	4.9%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	321	63
Colin Bates R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP-	4.57	10.5%	6.5%	2.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	111	63
Tim Adleman R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	29	SP-	5.35	20.3%	9.4%	5.1%	.276	4.30	22.8%	15.0%	117	-1.05	3.63	605	62
Luis Mateo R 2019 · 5.55 FIP	29	SP-	5.55	8.6%	13.4%	2.7%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	160	62
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	62
Travis Driskill R 2002 · 4.95 FIP	30	SP-	4.95	13.2%	8.0%	3.6%	.291	4.26	15.3%	12.0%	48	-0.69	4.26	181	61
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	61
Jose A. Flores R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	29	SP-	4.77	13.7%	10.3%	2.8%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	237	61
Beau Sulser R 2023 · 5.21 FIP	29	SP-	5.21	13.3%	5.3%	4.7%	.285	6.15	16.3%	10.0%	68	+0.94	2.61	463	61
Paul Clemens R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SW	4.72	14.9%	11.0%	2.7%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	345	60
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	60
Derek Eitel R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.2%	16.0%	1.9%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	138	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	39	16.2%	10.8%	1.57	5.82
Dave Stevens ('00)	1.3	50	14.6%	11.3%	1.76	6.02
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Dennis Powell ('85-'93, -2 WAR*)	1.7	49	17.6%*	10.1%*	1.18*	5.31*
Steve Shields ('85-'89, -3 WAR*)	1.1	55	17.0%*	9.0%*	1.61*	5.49*