Keegan Thompson

P Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 32 RHP 6'1" / 197 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	29	MIX2 levels	44	0	58	2.81	3.34	31.9%	12.1%	0.8	K 29.6% · BB 11.6% · FIP 3.54
2025	30	AAACHC	33	5	64	4.50	3.10	29.5%	8.9%	—	K 25.4% · BB 8.0% · FIP 3.31
2026	31	MIX2 levels	30	15	85	5.70	4.51	16.8%	9.2%	0.9	K 14.8% · BB 8.4% · FIP 4.54
2027PROJ	32	MLBCOL	130	0	137	4.61	4.63	19.0%	8.9%	-0.1
2028PROJ95% MLB	33	MLBCOL	89	0	93	4.79	4.91	18.1%	9.4%	-0.4
2029PROJ90% MLB	34	MLBCOL	66	0	69	5.04	5.21	17.2%	9.9%	-0.5

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.7 · Next 3 projected WAR -1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%30

FB Velo19

xwOBA vs10

CompsRudy Gonzalez (age 34) · Chris Jakubauskas (age 32) · Ivan Maldonado (age 35)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.61

FIP4.63

K%19.0%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%10.0%

Proj IP137

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 137 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL2525

CMD5050

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1992.3

Whiff%

p2421.6%

p3019.3%

xwOBA vs

p100.407

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	130	532	115	34	9	100%	5.2	17.1%	7.2%	9.9%	2.2%	3.61	3.79	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	130	532	115	34	9	100%	5.2	21.6%	6.4%	15.2%	1.7%	3.61	3.02	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	3	10	39	13	1	1	100%	3.3	33.3%	2.6%	30.8%	2.6%	3.60	2.02	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	3	10	39	13	1	1	100%	3.3	33.3%	2.6%	30.8%	2.6%	3.60	2.10	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	10	68	296	71	35	9	28%	1.9	23.3%	11.9%	11.4%	3.2%	2.65	4.37	+0.1
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	10	68	296	71	35	9	28%	1.9	24.0%	11.8%	12.2%	3.0%	2.65	4.28	+0.2
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	18	117	494	112	44	16	60%	3.9	22.3%	8.9%	13.4%	3.4%	3.76	4.22	+1.6
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	18	117	494	112	44	16	60%	3.9	22.7%	8.9%	13.8%	3.2%	3.76	4.09	+1.8
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	59	271	66	42	10	0%	1.5	22.3%	14.6%	7.6%	4.1%	6.44	5.34	-0.5
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	59	271	66	42	10	0%	1.5	24.4%	15.5%	8.9%	3.7%	6.44	5.21	-0.5
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	58	232	74	28	6	0%	1.3	29.6%	11.6%	18.0%	2.7%	2.81	3.54	+0.7
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	58	232	74	28	6	0%	1.3	29.6%	11.6%	18.0%	2.7%	2.81	3.54	+0.7
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	58	232	74	28	6	0%	1.3	31.9%	12.1%	19.8%	2.6%	2.81	3.34	+0.8
2025	30	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	33	5	64	281	83	25	7	15%	1.9	25.4%	8.0%	17.4%	2.4%	4.50	3.31	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	33	5	64	281	83	25	7	15%	1.9	25.4%	8.0%	17.4%	2.4%	4.50	3.31	—
2025	30	AAA RAW	Iowa Cubs	33	5	64	281	83	25	7	15%	1.9	29.5%	8.9%	20.6%	2.5%	4.50	3.10	—
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	15	85	400	67	37	11	50%	2.8	14.8%	8.4%	6.4%	3.0%	5.70	4.54	+0.9
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	15	85	400	67	37	11	50%	2.8	14.8%	8.4%	6.4%	3.0%	5.70	4.54	+0.9
2026	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	15	85	400	67	37	11	50%	2.8	16.8%	9.2%	7.5%	2.8%	5.70	4.51	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			109	23	239	1037	236	112	31	21%	2.2	22.8%	10.8%	12.0%	3.0%	3.87	4.22	+0.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	COL	130	0	137	578	110	52	17	0%	1.1	19.0%	8.9%	10.0%	3.0%	4.61	4.63	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	COL	93	0	98	414	75	39	13	0%	1.1	18.1%	9.4%	8.7%	3.2%	4.79	4.91	-0.4
2029	34	MLB MLE	COL	72	0	76	321	55	32	11	0%	1.1	17.2%	9.9%	7.3%	3.5%	5.04	5.21	-0.6
2028	33	MLB CTX	COL	89	0	93	393	71	37	13	0%	1.0	18.1%	9.4%	8.7%	3.2%	4.79	4.91	-0.4
2029	34	MLB CTX	COL	66	0	69	291	50	29	10	0%	1.0	17.2%	9.9%	7.3%	3.5%	5.04	5.21	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		263	23	401	1720	357	178	54	9%	1.5	20.8%	10.3%	10.4%	3.1%	4.29	4.37	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		131	11	200	858	178	89	27	9%	1.5	20.8%	10.3%	10.4%	3.1%	4.29	4.37	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		240	76	591	2545	542	241	75	32%	2.5	21.3%	9.5%	11.9%	3.0%	4.13	4.12	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		81	26	200	862	184	82	25	32%	2.5	21.3%	9.5%	11.9%	3.0%	4.13	4.12	-0.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 73 IPFIP 4.61 → 4.84 (+0.22)K% 16.3% → 14.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.33%	—	×0.860	14.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.20%	—	×0.900	9.18%
HR / BF /BF	2.92%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.21%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.61 → 4.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAIowa Cubs · 64 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.31 (+0.21)K% 29.5% → 25.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.54%	—	×0.860	25.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.90%	—	×0.900	8.01%
HR / BF /BF	2.49%	÷1.125	×1.100	2.43%

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAIowa Cubs · 27 IPFIP 2.82 → 3.16 (+0.34)K% 36.2% → 31.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.19%	—	×0.860	31.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.52%	—	×0.900	8.57%
HR / BF /BF	2.86%	÷1.079	×1.100	2.91%

Result: FIP 2.82 → 3.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAIowa Cubs · 30 IPFIP 5.79 → 6.33 (+0.54)K% 27.4% → 23.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.40%	—	×0.860	23.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.75%	—	×0.900	14.18%
HR / BF /BF	5.48%	÷0.965	×1.100	6.24%

Result: FIP 5.79 → 6.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAIowa Cubs · 15 IPFIP 1.75 → 2.11 (+0.37)K% 30.2% → 26.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.19%	—	×0.880	26.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.43%	—	×1.050	9.91%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.081	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).

Result: FIP 1.75 → 2.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKAZL Cubs 1 · 5 IPFIP 3.70 → 5.39 (+1.69)K% 23.8% → 16.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.81%	—	×0.680	16.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.250	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	4.76%	÷1.000	×1.400	6.67%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.70 → 5.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AATennessee Smokies · 62 IPFIP 3.01 → 3.59 (+0.58)K% 20.0% → 16.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.810	16.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.78%	—	×1.100	8.56%
HR / BF /BF	1.11%	÷0.947	×1.200	1.41%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 89).

Result: FIP 3.01 → 3.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Myrtle Beach Pelicans · 68 IPFIP 3.02 → 3.99 (+0.97)K% 23.3% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.28%	—	×0.770	17.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.96%	—	×1.150	5.71%
HR / BF /BF	2.29%	÷0.933	×1.250	3.07%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 87).

Result: FIP 3.02 → 3.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Keegan Thompson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.63	19.0%	8.9%	3.0%	—	5.04	17.7%	8.1%	174	+0.41	—	—	—
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	69
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	66
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	66
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2019 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	12.2%	9.1%	3.3%	.420	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	203	65
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	65
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	65
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	65
Jason Urquidez R 2015 · 3.59 FIP	32	SU	3.59	15.6%	9.3%	1.1%	.386	1.81	25.5%	20.7%	90	-1.78	1.25	123	64
Jared Fernandez R 2003 · 3.57 FIP	31	SP-	3.57	11.8%	6.2%	1.2%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.57	101	64
Tim Dillard R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	32	SW	3.58	15.9%	7.7%	1.5%	.330	3.85	16.7%	8.1%	144	+0.27	2.92	432	63
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	63
Marco Quevedo R 2019 · 5.17 FIP	32	SP-	5.17	13.6%	11.4%	3.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	300	63
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	62
Mike Fyhrie R 2002 · 3.86 FIP	32	SW	3.86	13.7%	9.0%	1.4%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	173	62
Brian Sanches R 2011 · 4.35 FIP	32	SU	4.35	19.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	229	62
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	62
Jesse Estrada R 2016 · 3.80 FIP	32	SU	3.80	10.1%	4.0%	1.9%	.285	4.89	11.2%	5.1%	180	+1.09	3.80	257	62
Josh A. Smith R 2020 · 4.22 FIP	32	SU	4.22	14.9%	7.4%	2.6%	.330	3.23	19.4%	9.4%	33	-0.99	2.91	598	61
Hector Velázquez R 2021 · 3.81 FIP	32	SU	3.81	19.2%	8.3%	2.3%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.75	536	61
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	79	20.2%	10.0%	1.20	4.38
Bob Humphreys ('62-'70, 1 WAR*)	2.8	81	19.5%*	9.5%*	1.24*	4.22*
Paul Gibson ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.8	80	19.0%*	9.5%*	1.18*	4.37*
Marvin Freeman ('86-'96, 5 WAR*)	3.0	74	17.7%*	9.6%*	1.19*	4.33*
Dustin McGowan ('17)	3.3	65	19.2%	9.9%	1.08	4.50
Randall Delgado ('18)	2.7	78	20.1%	8.8%	1.11	4.10
Chris Stratton ('25)	3.1	69	21.0%	9.5%	1.02	4.64