Keegan Thompson
P
Albuquerque Isotopes
+0.3
WAR
Age 31
RHP
6'1" / 197 lbs
AAA
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA3.98
FIP4.18
xFIP3.97
SIERA3.94
K%25.7%
BB%10.5%
K-BB%15.2%
IP57
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
STUF5555
CTRL2525
CMD5050
K†6060
FB Velo
p3693.5
Whiff%
p6928.2%
K%
p8328.3%
xwOBA vs
p390.325
CT+2.5 (32%)
SL+1.3 (13%)
FB (37%)
SI (2%)
CU (15%)
CH-0.6 (2%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 25 | 25 | 130 | 532 | 115 | 34 | 9 | 17.1% | 7.2% | 2.2% | 3.61 | 3.78 | +2.2 |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 3 | 3 | 10 | 39 | 13 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.60 | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 36 | 10 | 68 | 296 | 71 | 35 | 9 | 23.3% | 11.9% | 3.0% | 2.65 | 4.26 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 30 | 18 | 117 | 494 | 112 | 44 | 16 | 22.3% | 8.9% | 3.5% | 3.76 | 4.25 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 39 | 0 | 59 | 271 | 66 | 42 | 10 | 22.6% | 15.9% | 4.1% | 6.44 | 5.44 | -0.3 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 44 | 0 | 58 | 232 | 74 | 28 | 6 | 29.9% | 12.3% | 2.6% | 2.81 | 3.57 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 33 | 5 | 64 | 281 | 83 | 25 | 7 | 26.0% | 9.3% | 2.4% | 4.50 | 3.42 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 5 | 2 | 17 | 68 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 14.2% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 2.16 | 4.85 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | COL | 53 | — | 53 | 225 | 56 | 25 | 7 | 24.9% | 11.1% | 2.9% | 4.06 | 4.37 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 31 | MLB | COL | — | — | 70 | 293 | 67 | 31 | 9 | 22.9% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 3.61 | 4.48 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | COL | 48 | — | 48 | 201 | 49 | 23 | 6 | 24.3% | 11.2% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.49 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | COL | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 42 | 20 | 5 | 23.6% | 11.4% | 3.1% | 4.50 | 4.62 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | COL | 37 | — | 37 | 158 | 36 | 18 | 5 | 22.9% | 11.6% | 3.2% | 4.65 | 4.75 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 35 | MLB | COL | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 31 | 16 | 5 | 22.2% | 11.8% | 3.3% | 4.80 | 4.91 | +0.0 |
| 2031 | 36 | MLB | COL | 28 | — | 28 | 120 | 26 | 15 | 4 | 21.4% | 12.1% | 3.4% | 4.96 | 5.07 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 215 | 63 | 522 | 2213 | 496 | 222 | 65 | 22.4% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 3.81 | 4.09 | +7.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 82 | 24 | 200 | 848 | 190 | 85 | 25 | 22.4% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 3.81 | 4.09 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Keegan Thompson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.37 | 24.9% | 11.1% | 2.9% | — | 4.61 | 23.7% | 12.3% | 127 | +0.24 | — | — | — |
| David Robertson R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.30 | 28.1% | 10.5% | 2.3% | .297 | 2.39 | 34.6% | 26.8% | 138 | -0.91 | 2.00 | 494 | 85 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 80 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.39 | 25.5% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .254 | 3.70 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 129 | +0.31 | 2.80 | 410 | 79 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.38 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.98 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.60 | 3.38 | 212 | 78 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 77 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.52 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 1.7% | .247 | 3.95 | 20.5% | 11.4% | 113 | +0.43 | 3.17 | 272 | 77 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2027 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.45 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.18 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.27 | 2.48 | 147 | 76 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 75 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2025 · 3.62 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.62 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.8% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 224 | 75 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 75 |
| Tyler Clippard R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.52 | 27.5% | 9.2% | 2.9% | .282 | 3.95 | 28.0% | 19.4% | 191 | +0.43 | 2.52 | 417 | 75 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.68 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.22 | 3.46 | 160 | 75 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 74 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.48 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .258 | 2.91 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.57 | 2.00 | 380 | 74 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.35 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.91 | 210 | 74 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.89 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .246 | 3.65 | 28.8% | 20.4% | 145 | -0.24 | 1.69 | 468 | 74 |
| Aaron Barrett R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 23.0% | 8.1% | 3.1% | .246 | 4.56 | 19.9% | 6.4% | 38 | +0.71 | 1.82 | 119 | 73 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.83 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .283 | 4.53 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.30 | 2.93 | 176 | 73 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.01 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 1.9% | .276 | 3.38 | 24.3% | 11.9% | 16 | -0.63 | 3.38 | 129 | 73 |
| Yennier Cano R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.89 | 21.1% | 9.2% | 2.6% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 332 | 73 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.