Keegan Thompson — OGILVIE

Keegan Thompson P Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 31 RHP 6'1" / 197 lbs AAA peak 0.5 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION82 act + 12 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111102vR 94

ERA3.95

FIP4.07

K%22.7%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%12.5%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 94 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL2525

CMD5050

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1992.3

Whiff%

p2421.6%

p3019.3%

xwOBA vs

p100.407

CT+2.5 (32%)

SL+1.3 (13%)

FB (37%)

SI (2%)

CU (15%)

CH-0.6 (2%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	130	532	115	34	9	100%	5.2	17.1%	7.2%	9.9%	2.2%	3.61	3.79	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	130	532	115	34	9	100%	5.2	21.6%	6.4%	15.2%	1.7%	3.61	3.02	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	3	10	39	13	1	1	100%	3.3	33.3%	2.6%	30.8%	2.6%	3.60	2.02	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	3	10	39	13	1	1	100%	3.3	33.3%	2.6%	30.8%	2.6%	3.60	2.10	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	10	68	296	71	35	9	28%	1.9	23.3%	11.9%	11.4%	3.2%	2.65	4.37	+0.1
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	10	68	296	71	35	9	28%	1.9	24.0%	11.8%	12.2%	3.0%	2.65	4.28	+0.2
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	18	117	494	112	44	16	60%	3.9	22.3%	8.9%	13.4%	3.4%	3.76	4.22	+0.9
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	18	117	494	112	44	16	60%	3.9	22.7%	8.9%	13.8%	3.2%	3.76	4.09	+1.1
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	59	271	66	42	10	0%	1.5	21.8%	14.6%	7.2%	4.1%	6.44	5.38	-0.6
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	59	271	66	42	10	0%	1.5	21.8%	14.6%	7.2%	4.1%	6.44	5.38	-0.6
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	59	271	66	42	10	0%	1.5	24.4%	15.5%	8.9%	3.7%	6.44	5.21	-0.5
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	58	232	74	28	6	0%	1.3	29.1%	11.6%	17.5%	2.7%	2.81	3.58	+0.7
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	58	232	74	28	6	0%	1.3	29.1%	11.6%	17.5%	2.7%	2.81	3.58	+0.7
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	58	232	74	28	6	0%	1.3	31.9%	12.1%	19.8%	2.6%	2.81	3.34	+0.8
2025	30	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	33	5	64	281	83	25	7	15%	1.9	24.5%	8.0%	16.5%	2.4%	4.50	3.38	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	33	5	64	281	83	25	7	15%	1.9	24.5%	8.0%	16.5%	2.4%	4.50	3.38	—
2025	30	AAA RAW	Iowa Cubs	33	5	64	281	83	25	7	15%	1.9	29.5%	8.9%	20.6%	2.5%	4.50	3.10	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			109	23	239	1037	236	112	31	21%	2.2	22.8%	10.8%	12.0%	3.0%	3.87	4.22	+0.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	27	15	82	382	63	34	11	56%	3.0	14.2%	8.1%	6.1%	3.1%	5.93	4.63	—
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	27	15	82	382	63	34	11	56%	3.0	14.2%	8.1%	6.1%	3.1%	5.93	4.63	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	AAA RAW	COL	22	15	70	325	52	32	10	68%	3.2	16.0%	9.8%	6.2%	3.1%	5.53	4.68	—
2026	31	MLB RAW	COL	5	0	12	57	11	2	1	0%	2.4	19.3%	3.5%	15.8%	1.8%	8.25	2.88	+0.2
SO FAR	31	MLB RAW	COL	5	0	12	57	11	2	1	0%	2.4	19.3%	3.5%	15.8%	1.8%	8.25	2.88	+0.2
ROS	31	MLB MLE	COL	2	2	12	52	12	5	2	100%	6.2	22.7%	10.1%	12.5%	2.9%	3.95	4.07	+0.1
ROS	31	MLB CTX	COL	2	2	12	51	11	5	1	100%	6.0	22.7%	10.1%	12.5%	2.9%	3.95	4.07	+0.1
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	COL	—	—	94	434	75	39	13	—	—	17.2%	9.1%	8.2%	2.9%	5.67	4.56	+0.3
FULL	31	MLB A+C	COL	—	—	24	103	75	39	13	—	—	72.6%	38.1%	34.5%	12.1%	21.90	8.46	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	COL	121	0	127	535	124	53	16	0%	1.0	23.2%	9.9%	13.3%	3.0%	4.30	4.45	+0.1
2028	33	MLB MLE	COL	111	0	116	491	109	51	16	0%	1.0	22.3%	10.3%	12.0%	3.3%	4.56	4.73	-0.2
2027	32	MLB CTX	COL	114	0	120	507	117	50	15	0%	1.1	23.2%	9.9%	13.3%	3.0%	4.30	4.45	+0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	COL	105	0	110	464	104	48	15	0%	1.0	22.3%	10.3%	12.0%	3.3%	4.56	4.73	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		331	25	483	2064	470	216	63	8%	1.5	22.8%	10.4%	12.3%	3.1%	4.14	4.19	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		137	10	200	855	195	90	26	8%	1.5	22.8%	10.4%	12.3%	3.1%	4.14	4.19	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		237	76	587	2527	533	238	75	32%	2.5	21.1%	9.4%	11.7%	3.0%	4.15	4.15	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		81	26	200	860	181	81	26	32%	2.5	21.1%	9.4%	11.7%	3.0%	4.15	4.15	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Keegan Thompson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.30	24.8%	10.4%	2.9%	—	4.58	22.8%	12.7%	243	+0.28	—	—	—
Joe Blanton R 2015 · 3.45 FIP	34	SW	3.45	22.4%	4.6%	3.0%	.272	3.70	23.5%	17.0%	124	+0.25	3.01	240	67
Josh Zeid R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	18.3%	10.8%	4.4%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	265	66
Josh A. Smith R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	31	SW	4.65	20.8%	6.4%	4.5%	.341	3.67	17.4%	8.6%	59	-0.98	2.91	598	66
Bud Norris R 2016 · 4.00 FIP	31	SP-	4.00	20.6%	9.1%	2.7%	.305	3.58	27.5%	19.3%	120	-0.42	3.51	316	65
Mike Bolsinger R 2017 · 4.26 FIP	29	SW	4.26	20.2%	9.4%	3.0%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	327	62
Nick Martinez R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	31	SW	4.26	21.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.273	3.56	19.7%	14.0%	418	-0.70	2.94	1,134	62
Chris Leroux R 2015 · 4.20 FIP	31	SU	4.20	15.2%	8.6%	2.4%	.279	4.08	13.5%	5.5%	140	-0.12	4.08	219	61
Spencer Bivens R 2023 · 3.91 FIP	29	SU	3.91	18.6%	10.6%	1.9%	.285	3.98	17.8%	11.2%	254	+0.07	3.52	390	60
David Hale R 2019 · 3.30 FIP	31	SW	3.30	16.4%	5.5%	1.6%	.307	4.23	18.3%	12.1%	44	+0.93	3.30	493	60
Shintaro Fujinami R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	23.2%	12.3%	2.5%	.290	4.55	21.2%	-0.6%	51	+0.46	4.09	130	60
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	60
Josh Lindblom R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	30	SW	3.91	18.7%	5.5%	3.1%	.333	3.50	27.2%	18.8%	45	-0.41	3.50	348	59
Dillon Gee R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	31	SP-	3.85	18.0%	5.9%	2.8%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	380	59
Mark Leiter Jr. R 2022 · 3.98 FIP	31	SW	3.98	26.9%	7.8%	3.9%	.259	3.13	29.2%	20.8%	171	-0.85	2.53	827	59
Casey Lawrence R 2018 · 3.77 FIP	30	SP-	3.77	18.1%	4.4%	3.0%	.305	4.08	20.0%	14.8%	86	+0.31	3.57	1,365	59
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	58
Steve Johnson R 2017 · 4.53 FIP	29	SW	4.53	20.3%	8.9%	3.7%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	2.22	152	58
Mike Wright Jr. R 2021 · 3.89 FIP	31	SP-	3.89	19.1%	8.8%	2.4%	.237	4.79	14.4%	1.1%	56	+0.90	3.76	725	58
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	212	57
Tim Dillard R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	32	SW	3.58	15.9%	7.7%	1.5%	.330	3.85	16.7%	8.1%	144	+0.27	3.13	352	57

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	127	23.5%	10.2%	1.19	4.34
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94
Kyle Wright ('23)	1.2	83	22.4%	8.9%	1.12	3.97
Alek Manoah ('24)	2.1	105	23.4%	9.0%	1.03	3.34
Luis Garcia ('23)	1.7	113	25.5%	7.7%	1.19	3.63