Keegan Thompson
P
Albuquerque Isotopes
Age 31
RHP
6'1" / 197 lbs
AAA
peak 0.6 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION65 act + 125 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111102vR 93
ERA3.89
FIP4.03
K%23.6%
BB%11.1%
K-BB%12.5%
ROS IP125
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 190 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1992.3
Whiff%
p2421.6%
K%
p3019.3%
xwOBA vs
p100.407
CT+2.5 (32%)
SL+1.3 (13%)
FB (37%)
SI (2%)
CU (15%)
CH-0.6 (2%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 130 | 532 | 115 | 34 | 9 | 100% | 5.2 | 17.1% | 7.2% | 9.9% | 2.4% | 3.61 | 3.88 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 130 | 532 | 115 | 34 | 9 | 100% | 5.2 | 21.6% | 6.4% | 15.2% | 1.7% | 3.61 | 3.02 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 3 | 3 | 10 | 39 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 3.3 | 33.3% | 2.6% | 30.8% | 2.6% | 3.60 | 2.02 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 3 | 3 | 10 | 39 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 3.3 | 33.3% | 2.6% | 30.8% | 2.6% | 3.60 | 2.10 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 10 | 68 | 296 | 71 | 35 | 9 | 28% | 1.9 | 23.3% | 11.9% | 11.4% | 3.0% | 2.65 | 4.27 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 10 | 68 | 296 | 71 | 35 | 9 | 28% | 1.9 | 24.0% | 11.8% | 12.2% | 3.0% | 2.65 | 4.28 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 18 | 117 | 494 | 112 | 44 | 16 | 60% | 3.9 | 22.3% | 8.9% | 13.4% | 3.2% | 3.76 | 4.11 | +1.8 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 18 | 117 | 494 | 112 | 44 | 16 | 60% | 3.9 | 22.7% | 8.9% | 13.8% | 3.2% | 3.76 | 4.09 | +1.8 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 59 | 271 | 66 | 42 | 10 | 0% | 1.5 | 22.6% | 15.9% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 6.44 | 5.52 | -0.7 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 59 | 271 | 66 | 42 | 10 | 0% | 1.5 | 24.4% | 15.5% | 8.9% | 3.7% | 6.44 | 5.21 | -0.5 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 58 | 232 | 74 | 28 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 29.9% | 12.3% | 17.6% | 2.5% | 2.81 | 3.49 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 58 | 232 | 74 | 28 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 31.9% | 12.1% | 19.8% | 2.6% | 2.81 | 3.34 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 33 | 5 | 64 | 281 | 83 | 25 | 7 | 15% | 1.9 | 26.0% | 9.3% | 16.7% | 2.2% | 4.50 | 3.29 | — |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 33 | 5 | 64 | 281 | 83 | 25 | 7 | 15% | 1.9 | 29.5% | 8.9% | 20.6% | 2.5% | 4.50 | 3.10 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 21 | 10 | 65 | 295 | 50 | 25 | 6 | 48% | 3.1 | 15.4% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 2.2% | 5.12 | 4.13 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | COL | 119 | 0 | 125 | 528 | 125 | 59 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 12.5% | 2.8% | 3.89 | 4.03 | +2.0 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | COL | 119 | 0 | 125 | 528 | 125 | 59 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 12.5% | 2.8% | 3.89 | 4.03 | +2.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 31 | MLB | COL | — | — | 190 | 823 | 175 | 84 | 21 | — | — | 21.2% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 2.5% | 4.31 | 4.07 | +3.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 31 | MLB | COL | — | — | 137 | 578 | 175 | 84 | 21 | — | — | 30.2% | 14.4% | 15.8% | 3.6% | 5.98 | 4.34 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | COL | 121 | 0 | 127 | 535 | 128 | 57 | 16 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 10.7% | 13.2% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 4.45 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | COL | 111 | 0 | 116 | 491 | 113 | 55 | 16 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 3.2% | 4.55 | 4.73 | +0.9 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | COL | 114 | 0 | 120 | 507 | 121 | 54 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 10.7% | 13.2% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 4.45 | +1.3 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | COL | 105 | 0 | 110 | 464 | 107 | 52 | 15 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 3.2% | 4.55 | 4.73 | +0.9 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 448 | 23 | 595 | 2539 | 590 | 277 | 76 | 5% | 1.3 | 23.2% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 3.0% | 4.09 | 4.16 | +8.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 151 | 8 | 200 | 853 | 198 | 93 | 26 | 5% | 1.3 | 23.2% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 3.0% | 4.09 | 4.16 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 231 | 71 | 570 | 2440 | 532 | 242 | 68 | 31% | 2.5 | 21.8% | 9.9% | 11.9% | 2.8% | 4.01 | 4.05 | +9.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 81 | 25 | 200 | 856 | 186 | 85 | 24 | 31% | 2.5 | 21.8% | 9.9% | 11.9% | 2.8% | 4.01 | 4.05 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Keegan Thompson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.31 | 25.7% | 11.4% | 2.8% | — | 4.58 | 23.5% | 12.6% | 243 | +0.27 | — | — | — |
| Josh Zeid R 2025 · 5.41 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.41 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.5% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 265 | 65 |
| Joe Blanton R 2029 · 3.30 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.30 | 22.4% | 4.6% | 2.7% | .272 | 3.78 | 23.5% | 17.0% | 124 | +0.48 | 3.13 | 240 | 65 |
| Josh A. Smith R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.57 | 20.8% | 6.4% | 4.4% | .341 | 3.72 | 17.4% | 8.6% | 59 | -0.85 | 2.71 | 598 | 64 |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.15 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 3.0% | .305 | 3.56 | 27.5% | 19.3% | 120 | -0.59 | 3.52 | 316 | 63 |
| Mike Bolsinger R 2024 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.30 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 327 | 62 |
| Nick Martinez R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.44 | 21.2% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .273 | 3.63 | 19.7% | 14.0% | 418 | -0.81 | 2.97 | 1,073 | 61 |
| Tom Koehler R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.71 | 22.4% | 9.0% | 4.3% | .298 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 474 | 61 |
| Chris Leroux R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 60 |
| Mark Leiter Jr. R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.89 | 26.9% | 7.8% | 3.8% | .259 | 3.09 | 29.2% | 20.8% | 171 | -0.80 | 2.52 | 826 | 59 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 59 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 58 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne R 2026 · 3.16 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.16 | 18.5% | 8.1% | 1.1% | .370 | 3.63 | 19.4% | 10.5% | 138 | +0.47 | 3.16 | 593 | 58 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.18 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 2.2% | .276 | 3.35 | 24.3% | 11.9% | 16 | -0.83 | 3.35 | 129 | 58 |
| Jimmy Nelson R 2025 · 4.37 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.37 | 26.9% | 14.6% | 3.1% | .329 | 1.32 | 37.9% | 26.7% | 29 | -3.05 | 1.32 | 650 | 58 |
| David Hale R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.26 | 16.4% | 5.5% | 1.6% | .307 | 4.29 | 18.3% | 12.1% | 44 | +1.03 | 3.26 | 493 | 58 |
| Dillon Gee R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.88 | 18.0% | 5.9% | 2.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 380 | 58 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2025 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.28 | 18.7% | 5.5% | 3.8% | .333 | 3.66 | 27.2% | 18.8% | 45 | -0.62 | 3.66 | 348 | 58 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.23 | 21.1% | 9.7% | 3.1% | .355 | 4.62 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 51 | +0.39 | 4.23 | 221 | 57 |
| Steve Johnson R 2024 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.30 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 152 | 57 |
| David Robertson R 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.25 | 28.1% | 10.5% | 2.2% | .297 | 2.38 | 34.6% | 26.8% | 138 | -0.87 | 1.99 | 494 | 57 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 127 | 24.3% | 11.1% | 1.16 | 4.33 |
| Ian Anderson ('22) | 3 | 91 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 0.96 | 3.97 |
| Nate Karns ('17) | 3 | 96 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 1.22 | 4.24 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Danny Salazar ('17) | 3 | 142 | 28.1% | 9.0% | 1.12 | 3.79 |
| Kyle Wright ('23) | 3 | 83 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 1.12 | 3.97 |