Matt Waldron
P
San Diego Padres
Age 29
RHP
6'2" / 185 lbs
MLB
peak 0.9 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION53 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115106vR 97
ERA4.05
FIP4.21
K%18.4%
BB%6.6%
K-BB%11.8%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 118 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1491.9
Whiff%
p1018.3%
K%
p3820.5%
xwOBA vs
p560.306
SL (15%)
SI (18%)
CT (19%)
FB-2.0 (37%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 22 | ROK | AZL Indians Red | 4 | 0 | 10 | 34 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 2.5 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 2.9% | 0.90 | 0.49 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | ROK | AZL Indians Red | 4 | 0 | 10 | 34 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 2.5 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 2.9% | 0.90 | 1.00 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 20 | 104 | 445 | 103 | 35 | 8 | 100% | 5.2 | 18.1% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 2.2% | 4.25 | 3.93 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 20 | 104 | 445 | 103 | 35 | 8 | 100% | 5.2 | 23.1% | 7.9% | 15.3% | 1.8% | 4.25 | 3.13 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 114 | 512 | 96 | 38 | 14 | 100% | 4.5 | 16.0% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 2.7% | 6.26 | 4.21 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 114 | 512 | 96 | 38 | 14 | 100% | 4.5 | 18.8% | 7.4% | 11.3% | 2.7% | 6.26 | 4.01 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 24 | 134 | 589 | 130 | 42 | 27 | 86% | 4.8 | 20.1% | 7.4% | 12.7% | 4.7% | 6.40 | 4.91 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 24 | 134 | 589 | 130 | 42 | 27 | 86% | 4.8 | 22.1% | 7.1% | 14.9% | 4.6% | 6.40 | 4.72 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 30 | 166 | 709 | 150 | 43 | 24 | 97% | 5.4 | 20.9% | 6.1% | 14.8% | 3.6% | 4.87 | 4.08 | +2.6 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 30 | 166 | 709 | 150 | 43 | 24 | 97% | 5.4 | 21.2% | 6.1% | 15.1% | 3.4% | 4.87 | 3.95 | +2.8 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 4 levels | 22 | 22 | 95 | 430 | 88 | 36 | 13 | 100% | 4.3 | 18.2% | 7.4% | 10.8% | 3.4% | 6.54 | 4.38 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 4 levels | 22 | 22 | 95 | 430 | 88 | 36 | 13 | 100% | 4.3 | 20.5% | 8.4% | 12.1% | 3.0% | 6.54 | 4.16 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 15 | 11 | 53 | 221 | 47 | 14 | 6 | 73% | 3.6 | 20.1% | 6.5% | 13.6% | 2.8% | 4.39 | 3.74 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | SD | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 50 | 18 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.4% | 6.6% | 11.8% | 3.3% | 4.05 | 4.21 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | SD | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 51 | 18 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.4% | 6.6% | 11.8% | 3.3% | 4.05 | 4.21 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | SD | — | — | 118 | 495 | 97 | 32 | 15 | — | — | 19.7% | 6.5% | 13.2% | 3.1% | 4.20 | 4.00 | +1.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | SD | — | — | 91 | 385 | 97 | 32 | 15 | — | — | 25.3% | 8.3% | 17.0% | 3.9% | 5.45 | 4.18 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | SD | 17 | 17 | 103 | 435 | 77 | 30 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.7% | 6.9% | 10.7% | 3.8% | 4.80 | 4.95 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | SD | 16 | 16 | 96 | 405 | 69 | 30 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.9% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 4.0% | 5.03 | 5.18 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | SD | 16 | 16 | 98 | 414 | 73 | 29 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.7% | 6.9% | 10.7% | 3.8% | 4.80 | 4.95 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | SD | 15 | 15 | 91 | 384 | 65 | 28 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.9% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 4.0% | 5.03 | 5.18 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 88 | 81 | 473 | 2017 | 381 | 141 | 76 | 92% | 5.4 | 18.9% | 7.0% | 11.9% | 3.8% | 4.92 | 4.47 | +5.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 34 | 200 | 853 | 161 | 60 | 32 | 92% | 5.4 | 18.9% | 7.0% | 11.9% | 3.8% | 4.92 | 4.47 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 145 | 132 | 676 | 2940 | 568 | 213 | 98 | 91% | 4.7 | 19.3% | 7.2% | 12.1% | 3.3% | 5.45 | 4.22 | +9.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 39 | 200 | 870 | 168 | 63 | 29 | 91% | 4.7 | 19.3% | 7.2% | 12.1% | 3.3% | 5.45 | 4.22 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Waldron (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.75 | 17.5% | 6.7% | 3.5% | — | 5.06 | 17.3% | 10.2% | 199 | +0.31 | — | — | — |
| Zack Segovia R 2029 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 63 |
| Matt Cain R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 61 |
| Rolando Valdez R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.99 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.3% | .301 | 3.60 | 13.2% | 7.9% | 176 | -0.39 | 2.98 | 258 | 60 |
| Andrew Triggs R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.57 | 23.6% | 9.9% | 4.0% | .263 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.66 | 242 | 59 |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.66 | 17.3% | 7.5% | 3.8% | .342 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 290 | 58 |
| Ariel Peña R 2025 · 3.93 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.93 | 22.5% | 12.0% | 2.2% | .304 | 5.94 | 19.9% | -5.7% | 21 | +2.01 | 3.91 | 223 | 57 |
| Tyler Cloyd R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.6% | 12.4% | 1.3% | .211 | 4.90 | 16.9% | 9.7% | 230 | +1.01 | 3.89 | 250 | 56 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.86 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 133 | 56 |
| Kris Medlen R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 56 |
| Tyler Herron R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.29 | 13.4% | 6.9% | 2.6% | .389 | 4.17 | 16.4% | 7.7% | 60 | -0.12 | 4.17 | 117 | 56 |
| Cody Anderson R 2025 · 4.36 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.36 | 18.9% | 7.5% | 3.5% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 279 | 56 |
| Mat Latos R 2026 · 5.79 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.79 | 16.8% | 11.2% | 4.9% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 244 | 56 |
| Tim Lincecum R 2028 · 4.20 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.20 | 18.0% | 10.8% | 2.3% | .296 | 5.09 | 17.4% | 6.3% | 89 | +0.89 | 4.20 | 166 | 56 |
| Alfredo Aceves R 2029 · 5.01 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.01 | 10.0% | 6.2% | 3.6% | .244 | 4.83 | 9.9% | 2.0% | 107 | -0.18 | 4.71 | 160 | 55 |
| Domingo Germán R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.15 | 19.5% | 6.4% | 3.4% | .257 | 4.77 | 22.8% | 13.6% | 204 | +0.62 | 3.24 | 777 | 55 |
| Paul Campbell R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.73 | 17.0% | 8.9% | 1.7% | .279 | 5.95 | 16.5% | 8.5% | 58 | +2.22 | 3.73 | 332 | 54 |
| Connor Schultz R 2024 · 4.85 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.85 | 21.5% | 10.9% | 4.0% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 171 | 54 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 54 |
| Yohan Pino R 2028 · 3.95 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.95 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 2.9% | .312 | 5.48 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.53 | 3.95 | 133 | 54 |
| Hector Noesí R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 54 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 103 | 17.4% | 6.9% | 1.45 | 4.80 |
| Ricky Nolasco ('17) | 3 | 139 | 18.1% | 6.5% | 1.38 | 4.85 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |
| Jeremy Hellickson ('19) | 5 | 126 | 17.5% | 6.6% | 1.44 | 4.49 |
| Yonny Chirinos ('24) | 4 | 84 | 18.9% | 6.6% | 1.38 | 4.37 |
| Doug Fister ('18) | 4 | 110 | 15.8% | 7.5% | 1.19 | 4.56 |
| Daniel Mengden ('19) | 4 | 73 | 17.3% | 7.7% | 1.24 | 4.68 |