Matt Waldron — OGILVIE

Matt Waldron P Washington Nationals

Age 29 RHP 6'2" / 185 lbs MLB peak 0.9 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 117 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10698vR 90

ERA4.08

FIP4.21

K%17.3%

BB%6.0%

K-BB%11.3%

ROS IP118

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL6060

CMD5050

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1592.0

Whiff%

p1017.8%

p1417.0%

xwOBA vs

p710.292

SL (15%)

SI (16%)

CT (21%)

FB-2.0 (34%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	22	ROK MLE	AZL Indians Red	4	0	10	34	17	0	1	0%	2.5	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	2.9%	0.90	0.49	—
2019	22	ROK RAW	AZL Indians Red	4	0	10	34	17	0	1	0%	2.5	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	2.9%	0.90	1.00	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	104	445	103	35	8	100%	5.2	18.1%	8.9%	9.2%	2.2%	4.25	3.91	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	20	104	445	103	35	8	100%	5.2	23.1%	7.9%	15.3%	1.8%	4.25	3.13	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	114	512	96	38	14	100%	4.5	16.0%	7.9%	8.1%	2.8%	6.26	4.29	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	114	512	96	38	14	100%	4.5	18.8%	7.4%	11.3%	2.7%	6.26	4.01	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	24	134	589	130	42	27	86%	4.8	19.2%	6.6%	12.6%	4.7%	6.40	4.89	+0.0
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	24	134	589	130	42	27	86%	4.8	19.2%	6.6%	12.6%	4.7%	6.40	4.89	+0.0
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	24	134	589	130	42	27	86%	4.8	22.1%	7.1%	14.9%	4.6%	6.40	4.72	+0.3
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	30	166	709	150	43	24	97%	5.4	20.7%	6.0%	14.7%	3.3%	4.87	3.93	+1.9
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	30	166	709	150	43	24	97%	5.4	20.7%	6.0%	14.7%	3.3%	4.87	3.93	+1.9
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	30	166	709	150	43	24	97%	5.4	21.2%	6.1%	15.1%	3.4%	4.87	3.95	+1.9
2025	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	22	22	95	430	88	36	13	100%	4.3	17.1%	6.4%	10.8%	3.4%	6.54	4.30	+0.7
2025	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	22	22	95	430	88	36	13	100%	4.3	17.1%	6.4%	10.8%	3.4%	6.54	4.30	+0.7
2025	28	MIX RAW	4 levels	22	22	95	430	88	36	13	100%	4.3	20.5%	8.4%	12.1%	3.0%	6.54	4.16	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			53	37	235	1017	200	69	38	70%	4.4	19.7%	6.8%	12.9%	3.7%	5.16	4.38	+1.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	25	12	70	293	55	17	8	48%	2.8	17.5%	5.6%	11.9%	2.8%	4.52	3.85	+0.6
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	25	12	70	293	55	17	8	48%	2.8	17.5%	5.6%	11.9%	2.8%	4.52	3.85	+0.6
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	AAA RAW	WSH	8	8	27	99	22	6	1	100%	3.4	22.2%	6.1%	16.2%	1.0%	1.33	2.55	—
2026	29	MLB RAW	WSH	17	4	43	194	33	11	7	24%	2.5	17.0%	5.7%	11.3%	3.6%	6.54	4.36	+0.1
SO FAR	29	MLB RAW	WSH	17	4	43	194	33	11	7	24%	2.5	17.0%	5.7%	11.3%	3.6%	6.54	4.36	+0.1
ROS	29	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.3%	6.0%	11.3%	3.3%	4.08	4.21	—
ROS	29	MLB CTX	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.3%	6.0%	11.3%	3.3%	4.08	4.21	—
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	70	293	55	17	8	—	—	18.8%	5.8%	13.0%	2.7%	4.52	3.85	+0.7
FULL	29	MLB A+C	WSH	—	—	43	180	55	17	8	—	—	30.5%	9.4%	21.1%	4.4%	7.38	4.15	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	WSH	17	17	103	435	71	27	16	100%	6.1	16.4%	6.3%	10.1%	3.6%	4.75	4.88	+0.0
2028	31	MLB MLE	WSH	16	16	96	405	64	27	16	100%	6.0	15.7%	6.7%	9.0%	3.9%	4.97	5.11	-0.2
2027	30	MLB CTX	WSH	16	16	98	414	68	26	15	100%	6.1	16.4%	6.3%	10.1%	3.6%	4.75	4.88	+0.0
2028	31	MLB CTX	WSH	15	15	91	384	60	26	15	100%	6.1	15.7%	6.7%	9.0%	3.9%	4.97	5.11	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		85	69	424	1815	328	121	68	81%	5.0	18.1%	6.6%	11.4%	3.7%	5.03	4.47	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		40	32	200	855	155	57	32	81%	5.0	18.1%	6.6%	11.4%	3.7%	5.03	4.47	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		155	133	692	3012	565	205	99	86%	4.5	18.7%	6.8%	11.9%	3.3%	5.44	4.18	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	38	200	871	163	59	29	86%	4.5	18.7%	6.8%	11.9%	3.3%	5.44	4.18	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Waldron (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.66	17.2%	6.2%	3.4%	—	4.99	16.1%	9.6%	199	+0.33	—	—	—
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	63
Matt Cain R 2015 · 4.88 FIP	30	SP-	4.88	17.1%	6.8%	4.3%	.296	4.87	15.2%	7.6%	214	-0.01	4.82	294	62
Mat Latos R 2017 · 5.66 FIP	29	SP	5.66	16.8%	11.2%	4.7%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	244	60
Randall Delgado R 2019 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP	4.82	17.3%	7.5%	4.1%	.342	—	—	—	—	—	3.09	290	59
Andrew Triggs R 2018 · 4.68 FIP	29	SP	4.68	23.6%	9.9%	4.2%	.263	—	—	—	—	—	1.66	242	59
Kris Medlen R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP-	4.82	15.4%	6.4%	4.0%	.261	5.17	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.35	4.59	261	59
Rolando Valdez R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	29	SP	4.07	13.3%	5.9%	2.4%	.301	3.78	13.2%	7.9%	176	-0.29	3.06	258	58
Domingo Germán R 2022 · 4.16 FIP	29	SP	4.16	19.5%	6.4%	3.5%	.257	4.67	22.3%	13.7%	204	+0.51	3.29	777	58
Cody Anderson R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	28	SP	4.33	18.9%	7.5%	3.4%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	279	58
Cole Johnson R 2016 · 3.61 FIP	27	SP	3.61	14.0%	4.8%	2.0%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	101	57
Alfredo Aceves R 2015 · 4.98 FIP	32	SP	4.98	10.0%	6.2%	3.5%	.244	4.93	9.9%	2.0%	107	-0.05	4.78	160	57
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	4.13	133	56
Tyler Cloyd R 2016 · 3.89 FIP	29	SP-	3.89	17.6%	12.4%	1.3%	.211	4.86	16.9%	9.7%	230	+0.97	3.89	250	56
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	56
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	56
Aaron Sanchez R 2021 · 4.69 FIP	29	SP	4.69	14.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.289	5.32	13.7%	3.6%	273	+0.63	3.43	924	56
Kohei Arihara R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	29	SP-	4.58	16.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	135	56
Ariel Peña R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	22.5%	12.0%	2.3%	.304	6.07	19.9%	-5.7%	21	+2.08	3.74	223	55
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	55
Jair Jurrjens R 2015 · 4.59 FIP	29	SP-	4.59	10.3%	6.9%	2.7%	.365	4.27	16.3%	8.4%	54	-0.32	4.27	125	55

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	100	16.4%	6.4%	1.40	4.75
Yonny Chirinos ('24)	1.7	84	18.9%	6.6%	1.38	4.37
Zach Plesac ('23)	2.3	93	18.4%	6.3%	1.39	4.20
Daniel Mengden ('19)	1.5	73	17.3%	7.7%	1.24	4.68
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Alec Mills ('21)	1.1	72	19.0%	6.9%	1.41	4.51