Matt Waldron
P
El Paso Chihuahuas
+0.7
WAR
Age 29
RHP
6'2" / 185 lbs
AAA
peak 0.7 · 2026
ERA4.61
FIP4.48
xFIP5.23
SIERA4.01
K%20.3%
BB%7.1%
K-BB%13.1%
IP118
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2026
STUF4040
CTRL6060
CMD5050
K†4040
FB Velo
p1090.7
Whiff%
p1820.8%
K%
p4421.3%
xwOBA vs
p460.316
SL (16%)
SI (17%)
CT (20%)
FB-2.0 (36%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 22 | ROK | AZL Indians Red | 4 | 0 | 10 | 34 | 17 | 0 | 1 | — | — | — | 0.90 | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 20 | 20 | 104 | 445 | 103 | 35 | 8 | 18.1% | 8.9% | 2.2% | 4.25 | 3.89 | +1.7 |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 25 | 25 | 114 | 512 | 96 | 38 | 14 | 16.0% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 6.26 | 4.34 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 28 | 24 | 134 | 589 | 130 | 42 | 27 | 20.1% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 6.40 | 5.00 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 31 | 30 | 166 | 709 | 150 | 43 | 24 | 20.9% | 6.1% | 3.1% | 4.87 | 3.82 | +2.8 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 22 | 22 | 95 | 430 | 88 | 36 | 13 | 18.2% | 7.4% | 3.4% | 6.54 | 4.35 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 3 | 3 | 12 | 39 | 12 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | SD | 20 | 20 | 110 | 463 | 77 | 32 | 15 | 16.6% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 4.66 | 4.76 | +0.7 |
| 2026 Total | 29 | MLB | SD | — | — | 122 | 502 | 89 | 33 | 15 | 17.7% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 4.20 | 4.29 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | SD | 18 | 18 | 99 | 418 | 67 | 29 | 14 | 16.1% | 7.0% | 3.4% | 4.78 | 4.85 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | SD | 16 | 16 | 89 | 375 | 58 | 27 | 13 | 15.5% | 7.1% | 3.4% | 4.89 | 4.96 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | SD | 14 | 14 | 79 | 335 | 56 | 22 | 12 | 16.9% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 4.84 | 4.81 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | SD | 13 | 13 | 70 | 297 | 48 | 20 | 11 | 16.2% | 6.6% | 3.6% | 4.90 | 4.93 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | SD | 11 | 11 | 62 | 263 | 41 | 18 | 10 | 15.5% | 6.8% | 3.7% | 5.00 | 5.07 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | SD | 54 | — | 54 | 230 | 34 | 16 | 9 | 14.8% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 5.13 | 5.22 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | SD | 47 | — | 47 | 200 | 28 | 15 | 8 | 14.0% | 7.3% | 3.9% | 5.28 | 5.39 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 133 | 124 | 634 | 2758 | 536 | 199 | 91 | 19.4% | 7.2% | 3.3% | 5.43 | 4.18 | +8.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 39 | 200 | 870 | 169 | 63 | 29 | 19.4% | 7.2% | 3.3% | 5.43 | 4.18 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Waldron (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.76 | 16.6% | 6.9% | 3.3% | — | 4.87 | 16.1% | 9.2% | 267 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Matt Cain R 2027 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.87 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 5.04 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | +0.17 | 4.87 | 294 | 62 |
| Kris Medlen R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.76 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 3.9% | .261 | 5.17 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.41 | 4.58 | 261 | 60 |
| Sam LeCure R 2028 · 4.41 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.41 | 15.6% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .283 | 4.16 | 16.6% | 10.1% | 91 | -0.25 | 4.16 | 171 | 60 |
| Bud Norris R 2027 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 59 |
| Murphy Smith R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.34 | 13.6% | 4.9% | 3.2% | .267 | 4.58 | 13.6% | 4.3% | 63 | +0.24 | 3.17 | 300 | 57 |
| Yohan Pino R 2028 · 4.10 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.10 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 3.2% | .312 | 5.35 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.25 | 4.10 | 133 | 57 |
| Mike Bolsinger R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.28 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 327 | 57 |
| Konner Wade R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.4% | 6.1% | 4.1% | .253 | 5.12 | 13.0% | 6.3% | 164 | +0.31 | 3.33 | 699 | 56 |
| Hector Noesí R 2025 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 56 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2025 · 3.98 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.98 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 56 |
| Marco Quevedo R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.60 | 13.6% | 6.2% | 3.4% | .258 | 5.04 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 107 | +0.44 | 4.13 | 300 | 55 |
| Warwick Saupold R 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.79 | 13.7% | 7.6% | 3.4% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 389 | 55 |
| Kohei Arihara R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.66 | 16.4% | 7.2% | 3.7% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.66 | 135 | 54 |
| Zach Neal R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.44 | 13.8% | 3.6% | 3.7% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.28 | 732 | 54 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2029 · 4.56 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .316 | 4.46 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.10 | 4.46 | 143 | 54 |
| Scott Feldman R 2029 · 4.16 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.16 | 13.5% | 5.8% | 2.7% | .291 | 4.32 | 18.4% | 12.4% | 188 | +0.16 | 3.98 | 297 | 53 |
| Justin Miller R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.81 | 20.8% | 9.7% | 2.2% | .353 | 4.68 | 22.5% | 16.5% | 127 | +0.87 | 2.67 | 279 | 53 |
| Donovan Hand R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.31 | 11.1% | 4.3% | 2.9% | .305 | 4.54 | 12.5% | 5.7% | 140 | +0.23 | 4.31 | 237 | 53 |
| Doug Fister R 2028 · 4.05 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.05 | 14.0% | 4.7% | 2.8% | .302 | 4.32 | 16.2% | 8.3% | 352 | +0.27 | 3.76 | 455 | 53 |
| Drew Storen R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.81 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.32 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.51 | 2.26 | 172 | 53 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.