Paul Blackburn — OGILVIE

Paul Blackburn P New York Yankees

+0.3 WAR

Age 32 RHP 6'1" / 196 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2026

ERA4.54

FIP4.35

xFIP4.57

SIERA4.36

K%19.8%

BB%7.6%

K-BB%12.2%

IP61

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.3peak

2026

K†4545

FB Velo

p2292.5

Whiff%

p3022.5%

p3119.4%

xwOBA vs

p520.310

CT+0.8 (36%)

SL (8%)

CH (10%)

SI (32%)

CU (13%)

FB-2.6 (34%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	21	A+	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	18	18	90	371	63	22	3	13.1%	6.8%	1.1%	3.11	3.49	+1.8
2016	22	AA	Jackson Generals	26	25	143	587	99	35	8	13.7%	6.6%	1.6%	3.27	3.68	+2.6
2017	23	MLB	Oakland Athletics	25	24	138	566	78	42	11	12.6%	7.7%	2.1%	3.12	4.17	+1.8
2018	24	MLB	Oakland Athletics	7	7	31	138	20	7	2	16.0%	5.0%	1.9%	7.18	3.44	+0.5
2019	25	MLB	Oakland Athletics	28	23	144	596	100	38	21	14.9%	6.7%	3.4%	4.82	4.54	+1.2
2020	26	MLB	Oakland Athletics	1	1	2	14	2	2	0	—	—	—	27.00	—	—
2021	27	MLB	Oakland Athletics	26	25	127	575	106	37	16	16.8%	6.7%	3.1%	5.24	4.25	+1.5
2022	28	MLB	Oakland Athletics	21	21	111	467	89	28	15	19.1%	6.0%	3.5%	4.28	4.16	+1.4
2023	29	MLB	Oakland Athletics	27	26	122	554	114	48	14	20.9%	8.7%	2.7%	4.88	3.91	+1.9
2024	30	MLB	New York Mets	18	16	86	369	66	27	13	18.7%	6.6%	3.8%	5.02	4.46	+0.7
2025	31	MLB	New York Yankees	27	16	94	396	90	31	11	18.7%	7.2%	2.2%	4.39	3.63	+1.7
▸ 2026 Season
2026	32	MLB	New York Yankees	5	0	6	30	4	2	0	—	—	—	3.00	—	—
ROS	32	MLB	CHC	55	—	55	233	43	18	7	18.5%	7.6%	2.9%	4.54	4.47	+0.3
2026 Total	32	MLB	CHC	—	—	61	263	47	20	7	17.9%	7.5%	2.6%	4.39	4.03	+0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	33	MLB	CHC	58	—	58	247	42	19	7	17.2%	7.7%	2.8%	4.53	4.55	+0.3
2028	34	MLB	CHC	56	—	56	234	39	19	7	16.5%	7.9%	2.9%	4.63	4.69	+0.2
2029	35	MLB	CHC	52	—	52	221	35	18	7	15.7%	8.1%	3.0%	4.76	4.84	+0.1
2030	36	MLB	CHC	49	—	49	206	31	17	6	15.0%	8.4%	3.1%	4.91	5.01	-0.0
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			229	202	1095	4663	761	325	120	16.3%	7.0%	2.6%	4.35	4.02	+15.8
/ 200 IP	—			42	37	200	852	139	59	22	16.3%	7.0%	2.6%	4.35	4.02	+2.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Paul Blackburn (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.47	18.5%	7.6%	2.9%	—	4.69	16.5%	8.6%	166	+0.22	—	—	—
Jean Machi R 2027 · 4.63 FIP	33	SW	4.63	16.3%	8.6%	3.3%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.39	4.11	186	73
Tyler Sturdevant R 2025 · 4.49 FIP	31	SW	4.49	13.5%	6.7%	3.1%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.47	149	73
Angel Castro R 2026 · 4.53 FIP	32	SW	4.53	15.9%	8.0%	3.2%	.268	4.27	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.26	3.50	292	73
Juan Sandoval R 2028 · 3.82 FIP	34	SW	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.34	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.48	3.21	225	72
Tim Dillard R 2026 · 3.60 FIP	32	SW	3.60	15.9%	7.7%	1.6%	.330	3.87	16.7%	8.1%	144	+0.27	3.12	352	72
Manny Acosta R 2029 · 4.09 FIP	35	SW	4.09	18.1%	9.1%	2.5%	.273	3.07	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.02	3.07	102	72
Hector Ambriz R 2026 · 3.55 FIP	32	SW	3.55	16.0%	6.4%	1.8%	.273	6.40	10.4%	2.9%	91	+2.85	3.55	155	71
Jim Johnson R 2026 · 3.34 FIP	32	SW	3.34	17.2%	6.2%	1.7%	.330	3.67	22.0%	14.1%	185	+0.33	2.57	251	71
Logan Kensing R 2027 · 3.61 FIP	33	SU	3.61	17.6%	8.8%	1.6%	.270	3.06	17.9%	10.0%	124	-0.55	2.72	172	70
Zack Segovia R 2026 · 4.81 FIP	32	SU	4.81	15.0%	8.3%	3.5%	.314	3.37	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.44	3.37	144	70
Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 4.08 FIP	32	SW	4.08	21.4%	8.1%	3.2%	.292	3.82	19.5%	9.5%	55	-0.26	3.17	272	70
Blaine Boyer R 2028 · 3.78 FIP	34	SW	3.78	12.3%	5.6%	1.8%	.265	4.12	12.5%	5.9%	144	+0.34	3.32	209	70
Jair Jurrjens R 2025 · 4.27 FIP	31	SW	4.27	16.3%	7.9%	2.8%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	125	70
Tyler Herron R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	30	SW	3.99	16.4%	8.7%	2.1%	.377	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	117	69
Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.29 FIP	32	SW	3.29	18.9%	5.2%	2.1%	.296	2.73	24.5%	18.6%	25	-0.56	2.73	316	69
Felipe Arredondo R 2026 · 4.68 FIP	32	SW	4.68	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	337	69
Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.53 FIP	32	SW	3.53	20.8%	9.0%	1.9%	.338	4.03	24.4%	11.0%	97	+0.50	2.80	410	69
Erik Davis R 2025 · 3.54 FIP	31	SW	3.54	17.4%	8.9%	1.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	227	69
Hector Navarro R 2029 · 4.37 FIP	35	SU	4.37	15.0%	5.4%	3.4%	.281	2.96	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.41	2.30	126	69
Ivan Maldonado R 2029 · 4.63 FIP	35	SW	4.63	12.8%	8.7%	2.8%	.269	5.47	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.84	4.63	172	69

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.