Paul Blackburn
P
New York Yankees
Age 32
RHP
6'1" / 196 lbs
MLB
peak 0.6 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION61 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.02
FIP4.07
xFIP4.57
SIERA4.36
K%17.4%
BB%7.9%
K-BB%9.5%
IP61
K†4040
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2026
CT+0.8 (32%)
SL (7%)
CH (14%)
SI (33%)
CU (13%)
FB-2.6 (35%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | A+ | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 18 | 18 | 90 | 371 | 63 | 22 | 3 | 13.1% | 6.8% | 1.3% | 3.11 | 3.57 | +1.7 |
| 2016 | 22 | AA | Jackson Generals | 26 | 25 | 143 | 587 | 99 | 35 | 8 | 13.7% | 6.6% | 1.7% | 3.27 | 3.69 | +2.9 |
| 2017 | 23 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 25 | 24 | 138 | 566 | 78 | 42 | 11 | 12.6% | 7.7% | 2.5% | 3.12 | 4.38 | +1.6 |
| 2018 | 24 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 7 | 7 | 31 | 138 | 20 | 7 | 2 | 16.0% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 7.18 | 3.36 | +0.4 |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 28 | 23 | 144 | 596 | 100 | 38 | 21 | 14.9% | 6.7% | 3.2% | 4.82 | 4.44 | +1.6 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 1 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 14.3% | 14.3% | 0.0% | 27.00 | 3.70 | +0.0 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 26 | 25 | 127 | 575 | 106 | 37 | 16 | 16.8% | 6.7% | 3.2% | 5.24 | 4.28 | +1.7 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 21 | 21 | 111 | 467 | 89 | 28 | 15 | 19.1% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 4.28 | 4.10 | +1.7 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 27 | 26 | 122 | 554 | 114 | 48 | 14 | 20.9% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 4.88 | 3.95 | +2.1 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | New York Mets | 18 | 16 | 86 | 369 | 66 | 27 | 13 | 18.7% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 5.02 | 4.46 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | New York Yankees | 27 | 16 | 94 | 396 | 90 | 31 | 11 | 18.7% | 7.2% | 2.1% | 4.39 | 3.59 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | New York Yankees | 20 | 1 | 30 | 127 | 21 | 11 | 2 | 16.5% | 8.7% | 1.6% | 2.97 | 3.67 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | NYY | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 23 | 10 | 3 | 17.4% | 7.9% | 2.6% | 4.02 | 4.07 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 32 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 61 | 257 | 44 | 21 | 5 | 17.0% | 8.3% | 2.1% | 3.50 | 3.87 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | NYY | 56 | — | 56 | 237 | 40 | 20 | 7 | 16.7% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 4.58 | 4.72 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | NYY | 51 | — | 51 | 216 | 34 | 19 | 7 | 15.8% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.84 | 5.02 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | NYY | 46 | — | 46 | 194 | 29 | 18 | 7 | 14.8% | 9.4% | 3.5% | 5.15 | 5.36 | -0.4 |
| 2030 | 36 | MLB | NYY | 41 | — | 41 | 171 | 24 | 17 | 7 | 13.8% | 10.0% | 3.9% | 5.49 | 5.72 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 244 | 203 | 1119 | 4760 | 778 | 334 | 124 | 16.3% | 7.0% | 2.6% | 4.32 | 4.04 | +17.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 36 | 200 | 851 | 139 | 60 | 22 | 16.3% | 7.0% | 2.6% | 4.32 | 4.04 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Paul Blackburn (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.51 | 18.0% | 7.6% | 2.9% | — | 5.01 | 15.8% | 7.0% | 153 | +0.50 | — | — | — |
| Jean Machi R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 73 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2028 · 3.77 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.77 | 15.4% | 6.0% | 2.2% | .294 | 3.35 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 116 | -0.42 | 3.17 | 225 | 72 |
| Manny Acosta R 2029 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 72 |
| Tim Dillard R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 72 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.94 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 3.0% | .292 | 3.77 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 55 | -0.17 | 3.15 | 272 | 72 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.43 | 17.2% | 6.2% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.64 | 22.0% | 14.1% | 185 | +0.21 | 2.51 | 251 | 72 |
| Hector Ambriz R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.44 | 16.0% | 6.4% | 1.6% | .273 | 6.28 | 10.4% | 2.9% | 91 | +2.84 | 3.44 | 155 | 71 |
| Angel Castro R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 71 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.44 | 20.8% | 9.0% | 1.7% | .338 | 4.07 | 24.4% | 11.0% | 97 | +0.63 | 2.73 | 410 | 71 |
| Logan Kensing R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.55 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.49 | 2.77 | 172 | 71 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.80 | 13.5% | 6.7% | 3.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 149 | 71 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.34 | 18.9% | 5.2% | 2.1% | .296 | 2.82 | 24.5% | 18.6% | 25 | -0.52 | 2.82 | 316 | 71 |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2025 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.29 | 16.3% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 125 | 70 |
| Tyler Herron R 2024 · 4.17 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.17 | 16.4% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .377 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 117 | 70 |
| Louis Coleman R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.06 | 19.8% | 9.9% | 2.5% | .243 | 4.48 | 17.6% | 3.6% | 14 | +0.42 | 3.03 | 256 | 69 |
| Erik Davis R 2025 · 3.44 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.44 | 17.4% | 8.9% | 1.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 227 | 69 |
| Zack Segovia R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 69 |
| Elian Leyva R 2024 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 158 | 69 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.77 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .331 | 5.83 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.06 | 3.37 | 170 | 69 |
| Blaine Boyer R 2028 · 3.78 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.78 | 12.3% | 5.6% | 1.8% | .265 | 4.08 | 12.5% | 5.9% | 144 | +0.30 | 3.21 | 209 | 69 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.