Max Meyer

P Miami Marlins

Age 28 RHP 6'0" / 196 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 1.1 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANArb-1FA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	26	26	115	5.01	4.82	22.9%	8.5%	0.8	K 20.9% · BB 8.1% · FIP 5.13
2025	26	MLBMIA	12	12	65	4.73	4.34	23.9%	7.0%	0.8
2026	27	MLBMIA	20	20	111	2.68	3.32	26.2%	8.9%	2.9
2027PROJ	28	MLBMIA	14	14	81	4.13	4.21	25.0%	8.3%	1.1
2028PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBMIA	12	12	75	4.18	4.28	24.4%	8.5%	0.9
2029PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBMIA	11	11	66	4.35	4.48	23.8%	8.8%	0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service3.965First FA2030

2027Arb-1$2M2028Arb-2$4M2029Arb-3$4M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%72

FB Velo58

xwOBA vs58

CompsMatt Shoemaker (age 28) · Chase Anderson (age 28) · Anthony DeSclafani (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109100vR 92

ERA4.13

FIP4.21

K%25.0%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%16.7%

Proj IP81

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 81 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$11M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5895.1

Whiff%

p7128.6%

p7226.2%

xwOBA vs

p580.304

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2022

Service 3.965 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$2M	+1.1	$9M	+$6M
2028	Arb-2	$4M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.2M
2029	Arb-3	$4M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$14M	+$7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	111	454	130	42	8	100%	5.0	22.0%	10.6%	11.4%	2.0%	2.27	3.68	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	111	454	130	42	8	100%	5.0	28.6%	9.3%	19.4%	1.8%	2.27	2.83	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	15	67	266	75	21	7	100%	4.5	25.0%	8.7%	16.3%	2.3%	4.03	3.37	+1.7
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	15	67	266	75	21	7	100%	4.5	28.2%	7.9%	20.3%	2.6%	4.03	3.16	+1.8
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	115	503	115	43	23	100%	4.4	20.9%	8.1%	12.9%	5.1%	5.01	5.13	+0.4
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	115	503	115	43	23	100%	4.4	20.9%	8.1%	12.9%	5.1%	5.01	5.13	+0.4
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	115	503	115	43	23	100%	4.4	22.9%	8.5%	14.3%	4.6%	5.01	4.82	+0.8
2025	26	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	12	12	65	285	68	20	12	100%	5.4	23.9%	7.0%	16.8%	4.4%	4.73	4.41	+0.8
2025	26	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	12	12	65	285	68	20	12	100%	5.4	23.9%	7.0%	16.8%	4.4%	4.73	4.41	+0.8
2025	26	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	12	12	65	285	68	20	12	100%	5.4	23.9%	7.0%	16.8%	4.2%	4.73	4.34	+0.8
2026	27	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	20	20	111	462	121	41	11	100%	5.5	26.2%	8.9%	17.3%	2.5%	2.68	3.39	+2.7
2026	27	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	20	20	111	462	121	41	11	100%	5.5	26.2%	8.9%	17.3%	2.5%	2.68	3.39	+2.7
2026	27	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	20	20	111	462	121	41	11	100%	5.5	26.2%	8.9%	17.3%	2.4%	2.68	3.32	+2.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			45	45	239	1021	241	82	39	100%	5.3	23.6%	8.0%	15.6%	3.8%	4.07	4.24	+3.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	MIA	14	14	81	342	86	28	11	100%	5.8	25.0%	8.3%	16.7%	3.3%	4.13	4.21	+1.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	MIA	13	13	79	333	81	28	11	100%	6.1	24.4%	8.5%	15.9%	3.4%	4.27	4.37	+1.0
2029	30	MLB MLE	MIA	12	12	70	296	70	26	11	100%	5.8	23.8%	8.8%	14.9%	3.6%	4.45	4.58	+0.7
2030	31	MLB MLE	MIA	12	12	71	301	75	25	12	100%	6.0	25.0%	8.4%	16.6%	3.8%	4.50	4.54	+0.7
2031	32	MLB MLE	MIA	10	10	60	251	61	22	10	100%	6.0	24.2%	8.8%	15.4%	4.1%	4.67	4.79	+0.4
2028	29	MLB CTX	MIA	12	12	75	317	77	27	10	100%	6.2	24.4%	8.5%	15.9%	3.2%	4.18	4.28	+0.9
2029	30	MLB CTX	MIA	11	11	66	279	66	25	10	100%	6.0	23.8%	8.8%	14.9%	3.4%	4.35	4.48	+0.6
2030	31	MLB CTX	MIA	11	11	68	287	72	24	10	100%	6.2	25.0%	8.4%	16.6%	3.6%	4.39	4.43	+0.7
2031	32	MLB CTX	MIA	10	10	57	241	58	21	9	100%	5.7	24.2%	8.8%	15.4%	3.9%	4.56	4.68	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		89	89	504	2143	514	179	79	100%	5.7	24.0%	8.3%	15.7%	3.7%	4.22	4.14	+7.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	850	204	71	31	100%	5.6	24.0%	8.3%	15.7%	3.7%	4.22	4.14	+3.0
Career	—	MLE		95	95	469	1970	461	173	65	100%	4.9	23.4%	8.8%	14.6%	3.3%	3.63	4.04	+6.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	41	200	841	197	74	28	100%	4.9	23.4%	8.8%	14.6%	3.3%	3.63	4.04	+2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 58 IPFIP 3.94 → 4.51 (+0.57)K% 27.1% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.06%	—	×0.860	23.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.41%	—	×0.900	8.47%
HR / BF /BF	3.53%	÷0.925	×1.100	4.19%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 3.94 → 4.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 58 IPFIP 2.95 → 3.37 (+0.42)K% 28.4% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.38%	—	×0.880	24.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.30%	—	×1.050	8.71%
HR / BF /BF	2.18%	÷1.032	×1.100	2.33%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 106).

Result: FIP 2.95 → 3.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 101 IPFIP 2.95 → 3.68 (+0.73)K% 27.2% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.16%	—	×0.810	22.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.62%	—	×1.100	10.58%
HR / BF /BF	1.68%	÷1.011	×1.200	2.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).

Result: FIP 2.95 → 3.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 10 IPFIP 1.43 → 2.27 (+0.84)K% 44.7% → 39.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	44.74%	—	×0.880	39.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.26%	—	×1.050	5.53%
HR / BF /BF	2.63%	÷0.886	×1.100	3.27%

Result: FIP 1.43 → 2.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Max Meyer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.21	25.0%	8.3%	3.3%	—	4.49	24.4%	15.8%	220	+0.28	—	—	—
Matt Shoemaker R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	28	SP	4.38	20.4%	5.8%	4.1%	.280	3.74	21.8%	15.9%	269	-0.64	3.12	728	74
Chase Anderson R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	18.5%	8.2%	4.1%	.285	4.25	21.3%	13.3%	438	-0.58	3.30	1,260	72
Anthony DeSclafani R 2018 · 4.47 FIP	28	SP	4.47	22.3%	5.8%	4.6%	.290	3.95	22.6%	16.0%	368	-0.52	3.38	1,014	67
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	65
David Phelps R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	16.0%	6.8%	2.4%	.299	2.82	29.9%	20.6%	142	-1.12	2.50	672	65
Zack Godley R 2018 · 3.56 FIP	28	SP	3.56	23.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.315	5.07	17.6%	6.5%	219	+1.51	3.21	953	64
Domingo Germán R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	28	SP-	4.05	23.9%	6.6%	3.9%	.269	4.52	21.8%	13.7%	277	+0.47	3.29	777	64
Jacob deGrom R 2016 · 3.22 FIP	28	SP	3.22	23.7%	6.0%	2.5%	.310	2.46	31.0%	25.4%	622	-0.76	0.74	1,692	63
Brad Peacock R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP-	3.97	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.45	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.52	2.97	748	62
Félix Peña R 2018 · 3.74 FIP	28	SP	3.74	22.3%	8.4%	2.6%	.294	4.58	21.9%	13.5%	191	+0.84	2.79	615	62
Joe Ross R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	28	SP	3.95	23.7%	6.5%	3.7%	.266	3.90	19.6%	10.7%	86	-0.05	3.19	812	62
Jeremy Hefner R 2013 · 4.33 FIP	27	SP	4.33	17.8%	5.9%	3.6%	.277	4.64	16.8%	7.7%	98	+0.31	3.56	322	62
Antonio Guzman R 2016 · 3.72 FIP	28	SP	3.72	21.3%	8.7%	2.4%	.292	3.83	19.5%	7.8%	118	+0.11	3.15	254	62
Josh Lowey R 2015 · 3.35 FIP	30	SP	3.35	21.1%	7.8%	1.9%	.311	2.30	26.7%	20.1%	231	-1.05	2.22	426	62
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	62
Jesse Hahn R 2017 · 3.66 FIP	28	SP	3.66	16.6%	9.7%	1.3%	.327	2.19	29.2%	16.9%	17	-1.47	2.19	499	61
Omar Bencomo R 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP-	4.50	18.9%	6.3%	4.0%	.333	4.48	14.9%	10.1%	186	-0.02	3.70	381	61
Kodai Senga R 2023 · 3.40 FIP	30	SP	3.40	29.1%	11.1%	2.5%	.274	4.52	23.4%	10.8%	186	+1.12	3.40	352	61
Kenta Maeda R 2016 · 3.24 FIP	28	SP	3.24	25.0%	6.1%	2.7%	.275	3.48	27.0%	19.9%	413	+0.24	2.87	1,092	61
Todd Redmond R 2013 · 4.14 FIP	28	SP-	4.14	23.5%	6.5%	4.0%	.266	3.57	17.0%	10.1%	170	-0.57	3.21	247	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	75	24.2%	8.4%	1.43	4.26
Dave Tobik ('78-'85, 4 WAR*)	2.0	66	24.5%*	9.3%*	1.33*	3.87*
Keith Atherton ('83-'89, 2 WAR*)	2.8	81	19.9%*	8.7%*	1.39*	4.24*
Tyler Lyons ('20)	1.4	57	24.3%	7.6%	1.27	4.30
Roy Lee Jackson ('77-'86, 5 WAR*)	2.8	70	21.9%*	8.6%*	1.09*	3.99*
Matt Andriese ('24)	2.6	74	21.8%	6.7%	1.36	4.65
Tyler Duffey ('24)	2.4	61	23.1%	7.0%	1.24	4.57