Max Meyer — OGILVIE

Max Meyer P Miami Marlins

Age 27 RHP 6'0" / 196 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 0.8 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION108 act + 72 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10595vR 86

ERA3.84

FIP3.88

K%25.0%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%16.9%

ROS IP72

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 180 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†5560

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5895.1

Whiff%

p7028.5%

p7126.0%

xwOBA vs

p600.302

CH+1.7 (11%)

SI (10%)

SL-0.5 (56%)

FB-1.2 (34%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 2.965 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.4M	+1.6	$12M	+$12M
2027	Arb-2	$2M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-3	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-4	$3M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.4M		$14M	+$12M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	22	MIX	2 levels	22	22	111	454	130	42	8	100%	5.0	22.0%	10.6%	11.4%	2.0%	2.27	3.67	—
2021	22	MIX	2 levels	22	22	111	454	130	42	8	100%	5.0	28.6%	9.3%	19.4%	1.8%	2.27	2.83	—
2022	23	MIX	3 levels	15	15	67	266	75	21	7	100%	4.5	25.0%	8.7%	16.3%	2.3%	4.03	3.33	+1.1
2022	23	MIX	3 levels	15	15	67	266	75	21	7	100%	4.5	28.2%	7.9%	20.3%	2.6%	4.03	3.16	+1.2
2024	25	MIX	2 levels	26	26	115	503	115	43	23	100%	4.4	21.2%	8.8%	12.4%	5.3%	5.01	5.31	+0.1
2024	25	MIX	2 levels	26	26	115	503	115	43	23	100%	4.4	22.9%	8.5%	14.3%	4.6%	5.01	4.82	+0.8
2025	26	MLB	Miami Marlins	12	12	65	285	68	20	12	100%	5.4	23.9%	7.0%	16.8%	4.5%	4.73	4.42	+0.2
2025	26	MLB	Miami Marlins	12	12	65	285	68	20	12	100%	5.4	23.9%	7.0%	16.8%	4.2%	4.73	4.34	+0.2
▸ 2026 Season
2026	27	MLB	Miami Marlins	19	19	108	446	116	38	11	100%	5.7	26.0%	8.5%	17.5%	2.5%	2.58	3.34	+2.6
ROS	27	MLB	MIA	12	12	72	304	76	25	10	100%	6.0	25.0%	8.2%	16.9%	3.4%	3.84	3.88	+0.8
ROS	27	MLB	MIA	12	12	72	304	76	25	10	100%	6.0	25.0%	8.2%	16.9%	3.3%	3.79	3.83	+0.8
2026 TOT	27	MLB	MIA	—	—	180	750	192	63	21	—	—	25.6%	8.4%	17.2%	2.8%	3.08	3.55	+3.9
2026 FULL	27	MLB	MIA	—	—	180	760	192	63	21	—	—	25.3%	8.3%	17.0%	2.8%	3.06	3.53	+3.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	28	MLB	MIA	11	11	68	285	70	24	10	100%	6.1	24.6%	8.3%	16.3%	3.5%	4.32	4.37	+0.3
2028	29	MLB	MIA	11	11	64	272	65	23	10	100%	5.9	24.0%	8.5%	15.4%	3.6%	4.45	4.53	+0.1
2029	30	MLB	MIA	10	10	61	256	60	23	10	100%	6.1	23.3%	8.8%	14.4%	3.8%	4.63	4.74	-0.1
2030	31	MLB	MIA	9	9	56	239	54	22	10	100%	6.3	22.5%	9.2%	13.3%	4.1%	4.84	4.97	-0.3
2027	28	MLB	MIA	11	11	64	270	66	22	9	100%	5.8	24.6%	8.3%	16.3%	3.4%	4.27	4.32	+0.2
2028	29	MLB	MIA	10	10	61	258	62	22	9	100%	6.1	24.0%	8.5%	15.4%	3.5%	4.40	4.48	+0.1
2029	30	MLB	MIA	10	10	58	245	57	22	9	100%	5.8	23.3%	8.8%	14.4%	3.7%	4.57	4.68	-0.1
2030	31	MLB	MIA	9	9	54	228	51	21	9	100%	6.0	22.5%	9.2%	13.3%	4.0%	4.78	4.91	-0.2
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			96	96	544	2308	548	191	85	100%	5.7	23.7%	8.3%	15.5%	3.7%	4.21	4.17	+7.8
/ 200 IP	—			35	35	200	848	201	70	31	100%	5.7	23.7%	8.3%	15.5%	3.7%	4.21	4.17	+2.9
Career	—			94	94	466	1954	457	173	65	100%	5.0	23.4%	8.9%	14.5%	3.3%	3.61	4.08	+7.2
/ 200 IP	—			40	40	200	839	196	74	28	100%	5.0	23.4%	8.9%	14.5%	3.3%	3.61	4.08	+3.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Max Meyer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.85	22.7%	7.7%	4.2%	—	4.54	24.0%	15.4%	193	-0.31	—	—	—
Zack Wheeler R 2026 · 4.75 FIP	27	SP	4.75	21.0%	10.1%	3.9%	.327	3.09	23.0%	16.8%	449	-1.66	2.31	1,536	77
Christian Scott R 2026 · 3.95 FIP	27	SP	3.95	27.5%	9.7%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.65	302	70
Kumar Rocker R 2025 · 4.16 FIP	26	SP	4.16	20.5%	8.7%	3.1%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	1.95	230	70
Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.98 FIP	25	SP	3.98	26.8%	8.1%	3.9%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	209	69
Bryan Evans R 2027 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	17.8%	6.2%	2.8%	.250	4.75	19.7%	14.9%	132	+0.81	3.72	231	69
Brandon White R 2025 · 4.08 FIP	26	SP	4.08	24.9%	6.2%	4.2%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	264	68
Connor Grey R 2026 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	22.1%	8.1%	2.9%	.286	4.32	16.2%	7.0%	104	+0.44	2.81	461	68
Mat Latos R 2026 · 3.68 FIP	27	SP	3.68	20.2%	6.3%	2.7%	.306	5.21	14.5%	4.4%	128	+1.53	3.68	244	68
Rorik Maltrud R 2025 · 4.15 FIP	26	SP	4.15	18.9%	7.9%	3.0%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	3.87	247	68
Brendan Beck R 2026 · 3.74 FIP	27	SP	3.74	22.1%	8.2%	2.7%	.247	—	—	—	—	—	3.18	256	66
Nate Karns R 2026 · 4.03 FIP	27	SP	4.03	23.3%	8.9%	3.2%	.281	4.09	25.1%	15.9%	140	+0.06	3.92	287	65
Matt Shoemaker R 2027 · 4.51 FIP	28	SP	4.51	20.4%	5.8%	4.4%	.280	3.83	21.8%	15.9%	269	-0.68	3.24	592	65
Dylan Cumming R 2026 · 4.71 FIP	27	SP	4.71	16.4%	7.6%	3.7%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	366	65
Nick Tropeano R 2026 · 5.43 FIP	27	SP	5.43	20.3%	9.2%	5.2%	.251	4.44	21.5%	11.8%	155	-0.99	2.28	446	64
Joe Wieland R 2025 · 4.50 FIP	26	SP	4.50	18.6%	7.3%	3.7%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	270	64
Alex Meyer R 2026 · 4.04 FIP	27	SP	4.04	25.5%	12.8%	2.7%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	230	64
Will Warren R 2026 · 3.98 FIP	27	SP	3.98	22.4%	7.7%	3.3%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	651	64
Jason Forjet R 2025 · 4.39 FIP	26	SP	4.39	15.9%	5.5%	3.5%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	197	64
Chase De Jong R 2026 · 5.06 FIP	27	SP	5.06	22.8%	9.1%	5.0%	.295	4.57	20.2%	8.5%	127	-0.49	4.11	833	64
Iván Nova R 2027 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP	4.43	15.3%	8.0%	2.9%	.283	4.19	17.3%	13.1%	510	-0.24	3.90	810	63

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5	64	23.4%	8.5%	1.49	4.60
Mike Mayers ('23)	5	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Austin Voth ('24)	6	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Noé Ramirez ('22)	5	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Matt Albers ('19)	5	49	20.3%	8.3%	1.37	4.21
Alex Young ('23)	5	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
José Ruiz ('24)	5	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41