Max Meyer — OGILVIE

Max Meyer P Miami Marlins

Age 27 RHP 6'0" / 196 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 0.8 · 2027 ILInjured 15-Day (D15)

2026 ROS PROJECTION111 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108100vR 91

ERA4.11

FIP4.14

K%25.1%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%16.8%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 118 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†5560

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5895.1

Whiff%

p7128.6%

p7226.2%

xwOBA vs

p580.304

CH+1.7 (10%)

SI (10%)

SL-0.5 (56%)

FB-1.2 (34%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 2.965 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.6M
2027	Arb-2	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-3	$2M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.1M		$3M	+$0.6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	111	454	130	42	8	100%	5.0	22.0%	10.6%	11.4%	2.0%	2.27	3.68	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	111	454	130	42	8	100%	5.0	28.6%	9.3%	19.4%	1.8%	2.27	2.83	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	15	67	266	75	21	7	100%	4.5	25.0%	8.7%	16.3%	2.3%	4.03	3.37	+1.2
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	15	67	266	75	21	7	100%	4.5	28.2%	7.9%	20.3%	2.6%	4.03	3.16	+1.4
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	115	503	115	43	23	100%	4.4	20.5%	8.1%	12.5%	5.1%	5.01	5.16	-0.3
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	115	503	115	43	23	100%	4.4	20.5%	8.1%	12.5%	5.1%	5.01	5.16	-0.3
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	115	503	115	43	23	100%	4.4	22.9%	8.5%	14.3%	4.6%	5.01	4.82	+0.1
2025	26	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	12	12	65	285	68	20	12	100%	5.4	23.9%	7.0%	16.8%	4.4%	4.73	4.41	+0.4
2025	26	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	12	12	65	285	68	20	12	100%	5.4	23.9%	7.0%	16.8%	4.4%	4.73	4.41	+0.4
2025	26	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	12	12	65	285	68	20	12	100%	5.4	23.9%	7.0%	16.8%	4.2%	4.73	4.34	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			45	45	239	1021	241	82	39	100%	5.3	23.6%	8.0%	15.6%	3.8%	4.07	4.24	+1.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	20	20	111	462	121	41	11	100%	5.5	26.2%	8.9%	17.3%	2.5%	2.68	3.39	+2.1
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	20	20	111	462	121	41	11	100%	5.5	26.2%	8.9%	17.3%	2.5%	2.68	3.39	+2.1
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	MLB RAW	MIA	20	20	111	462	121	41	11	100%	5.5	26.2%	8.9%	17.3%	2.4%	2.68	3.32	+2.2
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	MIA	20	20	111	462	121	41	11	100%	5.5	26.2%	8.9%	17.3%	2.4%	2.68	3.32	+2.2
ROS	27	MLB MLE	MIA	1	1	7	28	7	2	1	100%	6.7	25.1%	8.3%	16.8%	3.9%	4.11	4.14	+0.1
ROS	27	MLB CTX	MIA	1	1	7	30	7	2	1	100%	7.0	25.1%	8.3%	16.8%	3.7%	4.01	4.04	+0.1
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	MIA	—	—	118	490	128	43	12	—	—	26.1%	8.8%	17.3%	2.5%	2.76	3.43	+2.1
FULL	27	MLB A+C	MIA	—	—	118	497	128	43	12	—	—	25.8%	8.7%	17.1%	2.4%	2.75	3.36	+2.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	MIA	11	11	68	285	70	24	10	100%	6.1	24.6%	8.4%	16.2%	3.4%	4.29	4.34	+0.4
2028	29	MLB MLE	MIA	11	11	64	272	65	24	10	100%	5.9	24.0%	8.6%	15.4%	3.6%	4.41	4.50	+0.3
2027	28	MLB CTX	MIA	11	11	64	270	67	23	9	100%	5.8	24.6%	8.4%	16.2%	3.2%	4.20	4.25	+0.4
2028	29	MLB CTX	MIA	10	10	61	258	62	22	9	100%	6.1	24.0%	8.6%	15.4%	3.4%	4.31	4.40	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		67	67	371	1579	377	129	58	100%	5.5	23.9%	8.2%	15.7%	3.6%	4.13	4.12	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	852	203	70	31	100%	5.5	23.9%	8.2%	15.7%	3.6%	4.13	4.12	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		95	95	469	1970	459	173	65	100%	4.9	23.3%	8.8%	14.5%	3.3%	3.63	4.05	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	41	200	841	196	74	28	100%	4.9	23.3%	8.8%	14.5%	3.3%	3.63	4.05	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Max Meyer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.81	22.5%	7.4%	4.2%	—	4.42	24.3%	15.8%	132	-0.39	—	—	—
Zack Wheeler R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	27	SP	4.75	21.0%	10.1%	3.9%	.327	3.09	23.0%	16.8%	449	-1.66	2.28	1,586	77
Bryan Evans R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	28	SP	4.13	17.8%	6.2%	3.2%	.250	4.60	19.7%	14.9%	132	+0.47	3.89	231	68
Connor Grey R 2021 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	22.1%	8.1%	2.8%	.286	4.37	16.2%	7.0%	104	+0.55	2.70	461	68
Nick Tropeano R 2018 · 5.28 FIP	27	SP	5.28	20.3%	9.2%	5.0%	.251	4.48	21.5%	11.8%	155	-0.80	2.34	446	67
Sawyer Gipson-Long R 2023 · 4.69 FIP	25	SP	4.69	26.3%	7.6%	5.2%	.272	4.55	19.5%	11.7%	166	-0.14	3.87	506	65
Nate Karns R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	27	SP	3.98	23.3%	8.9%	3.1%	.281	4.07	25.1%	15.9%	140	+0.09	3.88	287	65
Alex Meyer R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	27	SP	3.99	25.5%	12.8%	2.6%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	230	65
Matt Shoemaker R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	28	SP	4.38	20.4%	5.8%	4.1%	.280	3.74	21.8%	15.9%	269	-0.64	3.17	592	65
Matt Andriese R 2017 · 4.71 FIP	27	SP	4.71	20.3%	7.2%	4.4%	.290	3.99	24.5%	17.5%	181	-0.72	3.08	744	64
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	64
Rubby De La Rosa R 2016 · 4.09 FIP	27	SP-	4.09	24.3%	8.6%	3.6%	.248	4.13	27.6%	18.3%	42	+0.04	4.04	281	64
Joe Wieland R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	26	SP	4.27	18.6%	7.3%	3.3%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	270	64
Aaron Civale R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	27	SP	3.63	24.4%	5.4%	3.5%	.294	4.08	21.7%	14.5%	385	+0.45	3.33	1,198	63
Taijuan Walker R 2020 · 4.24 FIP	27	SP	4.24	22.2%	8.4%	3.6%	.236	4.04	20.4%	12.1%	489	-0.20	3.51	1,276	63
Jason Forjet R 2016 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	15.9%	5.5%	3.7%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	197	63
Chase De Jong R 2021 · 5.26 FIP	27	SP	5.26	22.8%	9.1%	5.3%	.295	4.65	19.9%	8.9%	127	-0.61	4.23	833	63
Iván Nova R 2015 · 4.44 FIP	28	SP	4.44	15.3%	8.0%	2.9%	.283	4.33	17.3%	13.1%	510	-0.11	4.03	810	63
Dinelson Lamet R 2019 · 3.74 FIP	27	SP	3.74	32.7%	9.2%	4.1%	.286	2.90	31.4%	21.8%	148	-0.84	2.11	778	62
David Phelps R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	16.0%	6.8%	2.4%	.299	2.82	29.9%	20.6%	142	-1.12	2.50	373	62
Jesse Scholtens R 2021 · 4.18 FIP	27	SP	4.18	20.8%	8.2%	3.3%	.314	4.58	19.0%	11.3%	215	+0.40	3.40	876	62

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	65	23.7%	8.2%	1.43	4.49
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Félix Peña ('20)	1.2	62	23.6%	8.3%	1.37	4.46
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41