Garrett Crochet
P
Boston Red Sox
Age 27
LHP
6'6" / 245 lbs
MLB
Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 2.4 · 2027
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 ROS PROJECTION30 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7281vR 90
ERA3.09
FIP3.05
K%30.3%
BB%6.4%
K-BB%23.9%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 95 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6895.8
Whiff%
p4124.0%
K%
p7526.8%
xwOBA vs
p230.344
CH (4%)
SI (22%)
CT-1.0 (25%)
FB-3.4 (56%)
SL-4.4 (14%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 21 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 5 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 36.4% | 0.0% | 36.4% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.03 | +0.3 |
| 2020 | 21 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 5 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 36.4% | 0.0% | 36.4% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.43 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 22 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 54 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 65 | 25 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.3% | 10.9% | 17.4% | 0.8% | 2.82 | 2.55 | +1.3 |
| 2021 | 22 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 54 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 65 | 25 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.3% | 10.9% | 17.4% | 0.9% | 2.82 | 2.57 | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 0 | 25 | 118 | 36 | 19 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.8% | 20.3% | -1.6% | 1.5% | 3.96 | 4.92 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 0 | 25 | 118 | 36 | 19 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.5% | 16.1% | 14.4% | 0.8% | 3.96 | 3.02 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 32 | 32 | 146 | 595 | 209 | 33 | 18 | 100% | 4.6 | 35.1% | 5.5% | 29.6% | 2.9% | 3.58 | 2.44 | +5.1 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 32 | 32 | 146 | 595 | 209 | 33 | 18 | 100% | 4.6 | 35.1% | 5.5% | 29.6% | 3.0% | 3.58 | 2.52 | +4.9 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 32 | 32 | 205 | 814 | 255 | 46 | 24 | 100% | 6.4 | 31.3% | 5.7% | 25.7% | 2.9% | 2.59 | 2.77 | +6.3 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 32 | 32 | 205 | 814 | 255 | 46 | 24 | 100% | 6.4 | 31.3% | 5.7% | 25.7% | 2.9% | 2.59 | 2.81 | +6.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 6 | 6 | 30 | 138 | 37 | 11 | 5 | 100% | 5.0 | 26.8% | 8.0% | 18.8% | 3.6% | 6.30 | 3.83 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | BOS | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 83 | 17 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 30.3% | 6.4% | 23.9% | 3.1% | 3.09 | 3.05 | +1.2 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | BOS | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 83 | 18 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 30.3% | 6.4% | 23.9% | 3.1% | 3.10 | 3.06 | +1.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 95 | 412 | 120 | 28 | 13 | — | — | 29.1% | 6.9% | 22.2% | 3.3% | 4.11 | 3.30 | +2.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 95 | 400 | 120 | 28 | 14 | — | — | 29.9% | 7.1% | 22.8% | 3.4% | 4.11 | 3.33 | +2.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 30 | 30 | 195 | 824 | 252 | 54 | 26 | 100% | 6.5 | 30.6% | 6.6% | 24.0% | 3.2% | 3.47 | 3.49 | +4.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 29 | 29 | 186 | 787 | 236 | 53 | 26 | 100% | 6.4 | 30.0% | 6.8% | 23.2% | 3.4% | 3.58 | 3.65 | +3.8 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 27 | 27 | 175 | 740 | 216 | 52 | 26 | 100% | 6.5 | 29.3% | 7.1% | 22.2% | 3.6% | 3.75 | 3.86 | +3.2 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 25 | 25 | 163 | 690 | 197 | 51 | 26 | 100% | 6.5 | 28.5% | 7.4% | 21.1% | 3.8% | 3.95 | 4.09 | +2.5 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 23 | 23 | 151 | 638 | 177 | 50 | 26 | 100% | 6.6 | 27.7% | 7.8% | 19.9% | 4.0% | 4.19 | 4.35 | +1.9 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 21 | 21 | 139 | 585 | 157 | 49 | 25 | 100% | 6.6 | 26.9% | 8.3% | 18.6% | 4.3% | 4.45 | 4.63 | +1.2 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 30 | 30 | 195 | 823 | 252 | 54 | 27 | 100% | 6.5 | 30.6% | 6.6% | 24.0% | 3.2% | 3.48 | 3.50 | +4.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 29 | 29 | 186 | 785 | 235 | 53 | 26 | 100% | 6.4 | 30.0% | 6.8% | 23.2% | 3.4% | 3.59 | 3.66 | +3.8 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 27 | 27 | 175 | 739 | 216 | 52 | 26 | 100% | 6.5 | 29.3% | 7.1% | 22.2% | 3.6% | 3.76 | 3.87 | +3.1 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 25 | 25 | 163 | 688 | 196 | 51 | 26 | 100% | 6.5 | 28.5% | 7.4% | 21.1% | 3.8% | 3.96 | 4.10 | +2.5 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 23 | 23 | 151 | 638 | 177 | 50 | 26 | 100% | 6.6 | 27.7% | 7.8% | 19.9% | 4.1% | 4.20 | 4.36 | +1.8 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 22 | 22 | 139 | 587 | 158 | 49 | 25 | 100% | 6.3 | 26.9% | 8.3% | 18.6% | 4.3% | 4.46 | 4.64 | +1.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 311 | 239 | 1529 | 6401 | 1903 | 455 | 215 | 77% | 4.9 | 29.7% | 7.1% | 22.6% | 3.4% | 3.63 | 3.34 | +36.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 31 | 200 | 837 | 249 | 60 | 28 | 77% | 4.9 | 29.7% | 7.1% | 22.6% | 3.4% | 3.63 | 3.34 | +4.8 | ||
| Career | — | 154 | 70 | 467 | 1917 | 596 | 139 | 50 | 45% | 3.0 | 31.1% | 7.2% | 23.8% | 2.6% | 3.20 | 2.82 | +14.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 66 | 30 | 200 | 822 | 255 | 60 | 21 | 45% | 3.0 | 31.1% | 7.2% | 23.8% | 2.6% | 3.20 | 2.82 | +6.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Garrett Crochet (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.10 | 32.5% | 5.8% | 3.0% | — | 3.66 | 29.9% | 23.1% | 557 | +0.56 | — | — | — |
| Danny Duffy L 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.82 | 25.7% | 5.7% | 4.0% | .287 | 4.20 | 20.8% | 12.4% | 432 | +0.38 | 3.29 | 915 | 43 |
| Tyler Lyons L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.57 | 22.2% | 4.4% | 3.2% | .313 | 3.57 | 26.0% | 18.5% | 158 | -0.00 | 2.61 | 376 | 40 |
| Alex Wood L 2026 · 3.28 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.28 | 21.2% | 5.5% | 2.3% | .285 | 3.74 | 24.6% | 18.1% | 187 | +0.46 | 3.05 | 1,009 | 37 |
| Vidal Nuño L 2027 · 4.07 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.07 | 20.0% | 4.8% | 3.7% | .289 | 4.33 | 20.8% | 16.1% | 173 | +0.26 | 4.07 | 424 | 37 |
| Manny Banuelos L 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.46 | 23.8% | 8.9% | 2.2% | .338 | 5.84 | 18.7% | 5.9% | 51 | +2.38 | 2.92 | 486 | 36 |
| Jake Kalish L 2026 · 2.96 FIP | 27 | SP- | 2.96 | 19.5% | 4.1% | 1.8% | .334 | 5.91 | 18.3% | 11.6% | 215 | +2.95 | 2.68 | 740 | 36 |
| David Peterson L 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.20 | 25.2% | 11.3% | 3.3% | .356 | 3.54 | 19.9% | 10.7% | 440 | -0.66 | 2.80 | 1,080 | 34 |
| Phil Pfeifer L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.74 | 21.9% | 8.5% | 2.6% | .298 | 5.80 | 19.5% | 4.7% | 35 | +2.06 | 3.58 | 307 | 33 |
| Matt Strahm L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.19 | 24.2% | 3.7% | 4.9% | .301 | 3.61 | 24.1% | 16.9% | 65 | -0.58 | 1.71 | 753 | 33 |
| Matt Tomshaw L 2026 · 2.95 FIP | 27 | SP- | 2.95 | 22.7% | 5.4% | 2.0% | .301 | 3.49 | 16.1% | 11.0% | 423 | +0.54 | 2.95 | 681 | 32 |
| Nick Lodolo L 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.42 | 24.3% | 4.7% | 3.2% | .267 | 4.58 | 17.9% | 8.2% | 63 | +1.16 | 1.56 | 516 | 32 |
| Daniel Lynch IV L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.09 | 18.4% | 7.1% | 3.0% | .268 | 3.96 | 17.7% | 9.3% | 106 | -0.13 | 2.19 | 716 | 31 |
| James Paxton L 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.18 | 22.9% | 5.1% | 2.5% | .328 | 3.13 | 30.1% | 22.8% | 447 | -0.05 | 2.48 | 924 | 31 |
| Ryan Yarbrough L 2026 · 3.08 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.08 | 22.1% | 3.2% | 2.6% | .267 | 4.15 | 17.9% | 12.8% | 318 | +1.07 | 3.08 | 1,304 | 30 |
| Jacob Lopez L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.67 | 29.1% | 9.0% | 3.4% | .276 | 5.67 | 17.5% | 5.7% | 70 | +2.00 | 3.50 | 478 | 30 |
| Andy Otero L 2028 · 4.08 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.08 | 24.7% | 6.2% | 4.2% | .298 | 4.38 | 14.5% | 5.6% | 68 | +0.30 | 2.85 | 200 | 30 |
| Shota Imanaga L 2029 · 3.58 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.58 | 25.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | .262 | 4.76 | 22.1% | 16.8% | 253 | +1.18 | 3.58 | 426 | 29 |
| Shane Drohan L 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.39 | 23.1% | 7.7% | 2.3% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.91 | 484 | 28 |
| Nik Turley L 2026 · 3.12 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.12 | 26.6% | 8.4% | 2.2% | .320 | 3.24 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 22 | +0.12 | 3.12 | 313 | 27 |
| Tarik Skubal L 2026 · 2.33 FIP | 27 | SP | 2.33 | 30.3% | 4.6% | 2.2% | .267 | 2.52 | 31.6% | 27.4% | 271 | +0.19 | 1.67 | 965 | 27 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 164 | 29.4% | 7.1% | 1.39 | 3.77 |
| Chris Archer ('22) | 6 | 164 | 26.9% | 8.3% | 1.21 | 4.10 |
| Trevor Bauer ('21) | 7 | 159 | 26.8% | 8.7% | 1.13 | 3.68 |
| Kenta Maeda ('24) | 8 | 122 | 25.9% | 6.9% | 1.30 | 4.17 |
| Stephen Strasburg ('21) | 6 | 135 | 29.4% | 6.8% | 0.98 | 3.32 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |
| Corey Kluber ('23) | 8 | 149 | 26.1% | 5.4% | 1.05 | 3.48 |