Garrett Crochet
P
Boston Red Sox
+2.3
WAR
INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)
Age 27
LHP
6'6" / 245 lbs
MLB
Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 3.5 · 2027
ERA3.12
FIP3.18
xFIP3.59
SIERA3.49
K%31.5%
BB%6.1%
K-BB%25.4%
IP195
trajectory · 10 yrs
3.5peak
2027
K†7070
FB Velo
p7095.9
Whiff%
p3423.0%
K%
p7025.9%
xwOBA vs
p100.366
CH (4%)
SI (22%)
CT-1.0 (25%)
FB-3.4 (56%)
SL-4.4 (14%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 21 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 5 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 8 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 54 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 65 | 25 | 2 | 28.3% | 10.9% | 0.8% | 2.82 | 2.52 | +1.5 |
| 2023 | 24 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 25 | 0 | 25 | 118 | 36 | 19 | 1 | 18.8% | 20.3% | 1.5% | 3.96 | 4.91 | +0.0 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 32 | 32 | 146 | 595 | 209 | 33 | 18 | 35.1% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 3.58 | 2.42 | +4.8 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 32 | 32 | 205 | 814 | 255 | 46 | 24 | 31.3% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 2.59 | 2.75 | +5.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 4 | 4 | 19 | 92 | 22 | 7 | 3 | 23.9% | 7.6% | 3.3% | 7.58 | 3.83 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | BOS | 13 | 13 | 72 | 303 | 92 | 19 | 9 | 30.3% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 2.90 | 2.99 | +1.7 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 91 | 395 | 114 | 26 | 12 | 28.8% | 6.7% | 3.0% | 3.88 | 3.16 | +2.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 30 | 30 | 166 | 702 | 210 | 45 | 21 | 30.0% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 3.38 | 3.42 | +3.5 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 27 | 27 | 151 | 638 | 188 | 42 | 20 | 29.5% | 6.5% | 3.1% | 3.45 | 3.50 | +3.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 25 | 25 | 136 | 575 | 167 | 38 | 18 | 28.9% | 6.6% | 3.1% | 3.53 | 3.59 | +2.6 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 22 | 22 | 122 | 516 | 146 | 35 | 16 | 28.4% | 6.8% | 3.2% | 3.63 | 3.69 | +2.2 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 20 | 20 | 109 | 461 | 128 | 32 | 15 | 27.7% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 3.74 | 3.81 | +1.8 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 18 | 18 | 97 | 410 | 111 | 29 | 14 | 27.1% | 7.1% | 3.4% | 3.86 | 3.94 | +1.5 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 16 | 16 | 86 | 362 | 95 | 26 | 13 | 26.4% | 7.3% | 3.5% | 3.99 | 4.08 | +1.1 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | BOS | 14 | 14 | 75 | 317 | 88 | 21 | 11 | 27.6% | 6.7% | 3.6% | 3.97 | 3.96 | +1.0 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 65 | 276 | 74 | 19 | 10 | 26.9% | 7.0% | 3.7% | 4.06 | 4.12 | +0.6 |
| 2036 | 37 | MLB | BOS | 56 | — | 56 | 238 | 62 | 17 | 9 | 26.1% | 7.2% | 3.8% | 4.20 | 4.30 | +0.4 |
| 2037 | 38 | MLB | BOS | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 51 | 15 | 8 | 25.2% | 7.5% | 4.0% | 4.37 | 4.48 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 152 | 68 | 456 | 1871 | 581 | 135 | 47 | 31.1% | 7.2% | 2.5% | 3.18 | 2.78 | +13.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 67 | 30 | 200 | 821 | 255 | 59 | 21 | 31.1% | 7.2% | 2.5% | 3.18 | 2.78 | +5.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Garrett Crochet (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.09 | 32.8% | 6.1% | 2.9% | — | 3.50 | 29.5% | 23.0% | 454 | +0.41 | — | — | — |
| Jake Kalish L 2026 · 2.99 FIP | 27 | SP- | 2.99 | 19.5% | 4.1% | 1.8% | .334 | 5.98 | 18.3% | 11.6% | 215 | +2.99 | 2.68 | 740 | 43 |
| Tanner Tully L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.74 | 16.2% | 5.1% | 2.5% | .329 | 5.12 | 13.7% | 7.1% | 191 | +1.38 | 3.74 | 834 | 42 |
| Phil Pfeifer L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.63 | 21.9% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .298 | 5.66 | 19.5% | 4.7% | 35 | +2.03 | 3.63 | 307 | 42 |
| Ryan Bollinger L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.57 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 112 | 42 |
| Jaime García L 2028 · 2.96 FIP | 29 | SP- | 2.96 | 19.0% | 5.9% | 1.3% | .265 | 4.28 | 19.7% | 11.0% | 411 | +1.32 | 2.96 | 540 | 42 |
| Felix Doubront L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.97 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .304 | 4.04 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 42 | +0.07 | 3.44 | 291 | 42 |
| Manny Banuelos L 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.48 | 23.8% | 8.9% | 2.3% | .338 | 5.81 | 18.7% | 5.9% | 51 | +2.33 | 2.94 | 486 | 42 |
| James Gillheeney L 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.81 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 129 | 41 |
| Dietrich Enns L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.25 | 16.2% | 8.3% | 2.7% | .320 | 5.23 | 20.2% | 11.9% | 231 | +0.98 | 2.80 | 702 | 41 |
| Tyler Skaggs L 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.45 | 24.2% | 7.5% | 2.6% | .323 | 3.68 | 23.3% | 14.9% | 80 | +0.23 | 3.17 | 372 | 41 |
| Miguel Pena L 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.03 | 16.8% | 8.2% | 2.4% | .288 | 5.12 | 16.0% | 9.0% | 68 | +1.09 | 2.93 | 282 | 40 |
| Eric Wooten L 2024 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.99 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 116 | 39 |
| John Gast L 2025 · 3.93 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.1% | 7.9% | 1.9% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 122 | 39 |
| Misael Siverio L 2025 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.90 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 1.6% | .343 | 4.28 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 63 | +0.38 | 3.90 | 185 | 39 |
| Charlie McDaniel L 2023 · 3.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.80 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.3% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 100 | 39 |
| Roenis Elías L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.09 | 18.7% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .297 | 4.05 | 18.2% | 10.4% | 176 | -0.04 | 3.14 | 564 | 39 |
| Tanner Banks L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.09 | 13.4% | 4.5% | 2.8% | .301 | 3.49 | 24.1% | 17.4% | 130 | -0.60 | 2.88 | 1,009 | 38 |
| Tim Cooney L 2023 · 3.53 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.53 | 18.0% | 5.1% | 2.4% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.53 | 120 | 38 |
| Shane McClanahan L 2025 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.70 | 25.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .274 | 4.53 | 22.0% | 3.4% | 14 | +0.83 | 2.93 | 539 | 38 |
| John Anderson L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.19 | 14.3% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 235 | 37 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Arb-3
MLB Debut 2020
Service 5.163 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2031
First FA Year 2032
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-3 | $28M | +2.3 | $18M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2027 | Ext / FA-deal | $28M | +3.5 | $29M | +$0.5M |
| 2028 | Ext / FA-deal | $28M | +3.1 | $26M | -$2M |
| 2029 | Ext / FA-deal | $28M | +2.6 | $23M | -$6M |
| 2030 | Ext / FA-deal | $28M | +2.2 | $20M | -$9M |
| 2031 | Ext / FA-deal | $28M | +1.8 | $17M | -$12M |
| Totals | $160M | $133M | -$27M | ||
Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$27M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$27M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.