Garrett Crochet

P Boston Red Sox

Age 28 LHP 6'6" / 245 lbs MLB Svc 6.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.8 · 2028

Overview

MLBSP40-MANExtFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR
2024	25	MLBCWS	32	32	146	3.58	2.52	35.1%	5.5%	5.3
2025	26	MLBBOS	32	32	205	2.59	2.81	31.3%	5.7%	6.8
2026	27	MLBBOS	6	6	30	6.30	3.90	26.8%	8.0%	0.5
2027PROJ	28	MLBBOS	39	0	41	3.33	3.36	31.2%	6.2%	0.6
2028PROJ	29	MLBBOS	70	0	74	3.39	3.47	30.6%	6.4%	0.9
2029PROJ	30	MLBBOS	74	0	78	3.56	3.67	29.9%	6.7%	0.8

Last 3 seasons WAR 12.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service6.163First FA2028

2027Ext$28M2028Ext$28M2029Ext$28M2030Ext$28M2031Ext$28M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%75

FB Velo68

xwOBA vs23

CompsJoey Lucchesi (age 28) · David Huff (age 28) · Andy Otero (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8189vR 97

ERA3.33

FIP3.36

K%31.2%

BB%6.2%

K-BB%25.0%

Proj IP41

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 41 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$118M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6895.8

Whiff%

p4124.0%

p7526.8%

xwOBA vs

p230.344

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2020

Service 6.163 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$28M	+0.6	$2M	-$26M
2028	Ext	$28M	+0.9	$3M	-$22M
2029	Ext	$28M	+0.8	$3M	-$20M
2030	Ext	$28M	+0.5	$2M	-$19M
2031	Ext	$28M	+0.2	$0.6M	-$18M
Totals		$142M		$11M	-$105M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$105M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2020	21	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	5	0	6	22	8	0	0	0%	1.2	36.4%	0.0%	36.4%	0.0%	0.00	0.03	+0.3
2020	21	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	5	0	6	22	8	0	0	0%	1.2	36.4%	0.0%	36.4%	0.0%	0.00	0.43	+0.3
2021	22	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	54	0	54	230	65	25	2	0%	1.0	28.3%	10.9%	17.4%	0.9%	2.82	2.56	+1.3
2021	22	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	54	0	54	230	65	25	2	0%	1.0	28.3%	10.9%	17.4%	0.9%	2.82	2.57	+1.3
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	0	25	118	36	19	1	0%	1.0	18.8%	20.3%	-1.6%	1.5%	3.96	4.93	-0.1
2023	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	0	25	118	36	19	1	0%	1.0	30.5%	16.1%	14.4%	0.8%	3.96	3.02	+0.5
2024	25	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	32	32	146	595	209	33	18	100%	4.6	35.1%	5.5%	29.6%	3.0%	3.58	2.47	+5.4
2024	25	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	32	32	146	595	209	33	18	100%	4.6	35.1%	5.5%	29.6%	3.0%	3.58	2.47	+5.4
2024	25	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	32	32	146	595	209	33	18	100%	4.6	35.1%	5.5%	29.6%	3.0%	3.58	2.52	+5.3
2025	26	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	32	32	205	814	255	46	24	100%	6.4	31.3%	5.7%	25.7%	3.0%	2.59	2.83	+6.7
2025	26	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	32	32	205	814	255	46	24	100%	6.4	31.3%	5.7%	25.7%	3.0%	2.59	2.83	+6.7
2025	26	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	32	32	205	814	255	46	24	100%	6.4	31.3%	5.7%	25.7%	2.9%	2.59	2.81	+6.8
2026	27	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	6	6	30	138	37	11	5	100%	5.0	26.8%	8.0%	18.8%	3.7%	6.30	3.89	+0.5
2026	27	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	6	6	30	138	37	11	5	100%	5.0	26.8%	8.0%	18.8%	3.7%	6.30	3.89	+0.5
2026	27	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	6	6	30	138	37	11	5	100%	5.0	26.8%	8.0%	18.8%	3.6%	6.30	3.90	+0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			142	70	454	1863	586	128	50	49%	3.2	31.5%	6.9%	24.6%	2.7%	3.17	2.80	+9.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	BOS	39	0	41	173	54	11	5	0%	1.1	31.2%	6.2%	25.0%	3.1%	3.33	3.36	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	BOS	70	0	74	312	96	20	10	0%	1.1	30.6%	6.4%	24.2%	3.3%	3.44	3.52	+0.9
2029	30	MLB MLE	BOS	74	0	78	328	98	22	11	0%	1.1	29.9%	6.7%	23.2%	3.5%	3.61	3.72	+0.8
2030	31	MLB MLE	BOS	69	0	72	304	89	21	11	0%	1.0	29.2%	7.0%	22.1%	3.7%	3.82	3.95	+0.5
2031	32	MLB MLE	BOS	59	0	62	263	75	20	10	0%	1.1	28.4%	7.4%	20.9%	4.0%	4.05	4.21	+0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	BOS	70	0	74	312	96	20	10	0%	1.1	30.6%	6.4%	24.2%	3.2%	3.39	3.47	+0.9
2029	30	MLB CTX	BOS	74	0	78	329	99	22	11	0%	1.1	29.9%	6.7%	23.2%	3.4%	3.56	3.67	+0.8
2030	31	MLB CTX	BOS	69	0	72	304	89	21	11	0%	1.0	29.2%	7.0%	22.1%	3.6%	3.77	3.90	+0.5
2031	32	MLB CTX	BOS	59	0	62	262	74	20	10	0%	1.1	28.4%	7.4%	20.9%	3.9%	4.00	4.16	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		415	70	741	3071	943	211	93	17%	1.8	30.7%	6.9%	23.8%	3.0%	3.36	3.03	+13.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		112	19	200	830	255	57	25	17%	1.8	30.7%	6.9%	23.8%	3.0%	3.36	3.03	+3.7
Career	—	MLE		154	70	467	1917	596	139	51	45%	3.0	31.1%	7.2%	23.8%	2.7%	3.20	2.86	+12.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	30	200	822	255	60	22	45%	3.0	31.1%	7.2%	23.8%	2.7%	3.20	2.86	+3.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AABirmingham Barons · 6 IPFIP 1.59 → 2.40 (+0.81)K% 39.3% → 31.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.29%	—	×0.810	31.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×1.100	15.71%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.013	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 1.59 → 2.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAACharlotte Knights · 6 IPFIP -0.15 → 0.35 (+0.49)K% 50.0% → 43.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	50.00%	—	×0.860	43.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×0.900	6.92%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.152	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 130).

Result: FIP -0.15 → 0.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Garrett Crochet (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	3.73	29.9%	23.2%	224	+0.37	—	—	—
Joey Lucchesi L 2021 · 3.18 FIP	28	SP-	3.18	26.1%	7.0%	2.5%	.297	4.64	16.4%	6.5%	243	+1.46	3.12	817	49
David Huff L 2013 · 4.42 FIP	28	SU	4.42	20.5%	5.3%	4.3%	.248	3.76	17.1%	11.5%	169	-0.66	3.40	540	44
Andy Otero L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	29	SP-	3.89	24.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.298	4.36	14.5%	5.6%	68	+0.47	2.86	200	44
Manny Parra L 2010 · 4.19 FIP	27	SW	4.19	23.0%	10.7%	3.1%	.331	3.16	25.6%	15.3%	105	-1.03	2.43	710	41
Travis Wood L 2015 · 3.25 FIP	28	SW	3.25	28.2%	8.1%	2.7%	.293	5.07	16.4%	6.7%	155	+1.82	3.21	994	39
Ben Shields L 2024 · 3.23 FIP	25	SP-	3.23	25.3%	8.2%	2.2%	.273	3.02	23.5%	13.3%	43	-0.21	3.02	147	38
Nick Mondak L 2024 · 2.70 FIP	26	SU	2.70	30.9%	6.4%	2.5%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	153	37
Taylor Rogers L 2019 · 2.35 FIP	28	SU	2.35	32.4%	3.2%	2.9%	.292	2.38	31.6%	26.5%	125	+0.03	1.87	794	37
Justin Wilson L 2016 · 3.04 FIP	28	SU	3.04	25.9%	6.0%	2.5%	.333	3.45	29.7%	16.8%	152	+0.41	2.49	554	37
Charlie Furbush L 2014 · 2.58 FIP	28	SU	2.58	28.8%	5.1%	2.3%	.319	3.19	20.7%	17.0%	22	+0.61	2.40	261	36
Tony Cingrani L 2017 · 4.46 FIP	28	SU	4.46	29.5%	6.8%	5.5%	.294	1.68	37.9%	32.6%	23	-2.78	1.68	354	35
Nick Hagadone L 2014 · 2.97 FIP	28	SU	2.97	29.7%	4.4%	3.3%	.263	3.70	22.6%	13.5%	61	+0.73	2.97	141	35
Glen Perkins L 2011 · 2.16 FIP	28	SU	2.16	25.7%	6.3%	0.8%	.312	2.70	28.4%	23.7%	195	+0.54	2.16	611	34
Zach Penrod L 2024 · 3.37 FIP	27	SP-	3.37	29.0%	12.1%	2.1%	.324	5.24	15.8%	-0.3%	79	+1.87	3.37	174	34
Pat Misch L 2010 · 3.50 FIP	28	SP-	3.50	14.5%	1.9%	2.5%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	265	34
Garrett Schoenle L 2024 · 2.32 FIP	26	SW	2.32	25.2%	8.0%	0.6%	.261	4.17	18.9%	9.8%	119	+1.85	2.32	362	34
Hector Hernandez L 2019 · 3.39 FIP	28	SW	3.39	20.2%	9.0%	1.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	121	34
Adam Conley L 2018 · 4.32 FIP	28	SU	4.32	19.0%	8.4%	3.2%	.272	4.51	20.4%	10.5%	111	+0.19	3.55	674	34
Darien Núñez L 2021 · 2.65 FIP	28	SU	2.65	35.0%	10.4%	2.1%	.268	6.09	17.4%	-4.8%	14	+3.44	2.48	122	33
Sean Manaea L 2020 · 3.75 FIP	28	SP	3.75	20.3%	3.6%	3.5%	.309	3.89	24.8%	18.0%	455	+0.14	3.28	1,511	33

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.9	87	30.7%	6.9%	1.18	3.38
Bruce Sutter ('76-'88, 22 WAR*)	5.2	95	28.5%*	7.3%*	1.12*	3.14*
Eric Gagne ('08)	3.2	80	27.0%	8.5%	1.06	3.47
Joe Sambito ('76-'87, 8 WAR*)	3.1	70	26.8%*	7.5%*	1.06*	3.65*
Ron Davis ('78-'88, 6 WAR*)	3.7	83	28.0%*	9.3%*	1.25*	4.20*
Chad Green ('25)	2.5	62	30.0%	6.4%	1.42	3.43
John Wetteland ('00)	3.3	66	25.9%	8.0%	0.88	2.80