Garrett Crochet — OGILVIE

Garrett Crochet P Boston Red Sox

Age 27 LHP 6'6" / 245 lbs MLB Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 3.0 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION30 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7583vR 91

ERA3.06

FIP3.04

K%30.3%

BB%6.4%

K-BB%23.9%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 33 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$59M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5555

CMD7575

K†7070

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6895.8

Whiff%

p4124.0%

p7526.8%

xwOBA vs

p230.344

CH (4%)

SI (22%)

CT-1.0 (25%)

FB-3.4 (56%)

SL-4.4 (14%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2020

Service 5.163 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$2M	+0.0	$0.1M	-$2M
2027	Ext	$28M	+3.3	$29M	+$4M
2028	Ext	$28M	+2.8	$21M	-$2M
2029	Ext	$28M	+2.1	$13M	-$7M
2030	Ext	$28M	+1.5	$9M	-$10M
2031	Ext	$28M	+0.9	$2M	-$14M
Totals		$144M		$75M	-$32M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$32M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2020	21	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	5	0	6	22	8	0	0	0%	1.2	36.4%	0.0%	36.4%	0.0%	0.00	0.03	+0.3
2020	21	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	5	0	6	22	8	0	0	0%	1.2	36.4%	0.0%	36.4%	0.0%	0.00	0.43	+0.3
2021	22	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	54	0	54	230	65	25	2	0%	1.0	28.3%	10.9%	17.4%	0.9%	2.82	2.56	+1.3
2021	22	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	54	0	54	230	65	25	2	0%	1.0	28.3%	10.9%	17.4%	0.9%	2.82	2.57	+1.3
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	0	25	118	36	19	1	0%	1.0	18.8%	20.3%	-1.6%	1.5%	3.96	4.93	-0.1
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	0	25	118	36	19	1	0%	1.0	18.8%	20.3%	-1.6%	1.5%	3.96	4.93	-0.1
2023	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	0	25	118	36	19	1	0%	1.0	30.5%	16.1%	14.4%	0.8%	3.96	3.02	+0.5
2024	25	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	32	32	146	595	209	33	18	100%	4.6	35.1%	5.5%	29.6%	3.0%	3.58	2.47	+4.5
2024	25	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	32	32	146	595	209	33	18	100%	4.6	35.1%	5.5%	29.6%	3.0%	3.58	2.47	+4.5
2024	25	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	32	32	146	595	209	33	18	100%	4.6	35.1%	5.5%	29.6%	3.0%	3.58	2.52	+4.4
2025	26	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	32	32	205	814	255	46	24	100%	6.4	31.3%	5.7%	25.7%	3.0%	2.59	2.83	+5.4
2025	26	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	32	32	205	814	255	46	24	100%	6.4	31.3%	5.7%	25.7%	3.0%	2.59	2.83	+5.4
2025	26	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	32	32	205	814	255	46	24	100%	6.4	31.3%	5.7%	25.7%	2.9%	2.59	2.81	+5.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			142	70	454	1863	586	128	50	49%	3.2	31.5%	6.9%	24.6%	2.7%	3.17	2.80	+9.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	6	6	30	138	37	11	5	100%	5.0	26.8%	8.0%	18.8%	3.7%	6.30	3.89	+0.4
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	6	6	30	138	37	11	5	100%	5.0	26.8%	8.0%	18.8%	3.7%	6.30	3.89	+0.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	MLB RAW	BOS	6	6	30	138	37	11	5	100%	5.0	26.8%	8.0%	18.8%	3.6%	6.30	3.83	+0.4
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	BOS	6	6	30	138	37	11	5	100%	5.0	26.8%	8.0%	18.8%	3.6%	6.30	3.83	+0.4
ROS	27	MLB MLE	BOS	1	1	3	14	4	1	0	100%	3.4	30.3%	6.4%	23.9%	3.1%	3.06	3.04	+0.1
ROS	27	MLB CTX	BOS	1	1	3	13	4	1	0	100%	3.0	30.3%	6.4%	23.9%	3.0%	3.02	3.00	+0.1
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	BOS	—	—	33	152	41	12	5	—	—	27.1%	7.8%	19.3%	3.6%	5.97	3.80	+0.3
FULL	27	MLB A+C	BOS	—	—	33	141	41	12	5	—	—	29.3%	8.4%	20.9%	3.9%	5.97	3.81	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	BOS	30	30	195	824	252	54	27	100%	6.5	30.6%	6.6%	24.0%	3.3%	3.50	3.52	+3.3
2028	29	MLB MLE	BOS	29	29	186	787	236	53	27	100%	6.4	30.0%	6.8%	23.2%	3.4%	3.61	3.68	+2.8
2029	30	MLB MLE	BOS	27	27	175	740	216	52	27	100%	6.5	29.3%	7.1%	22.2%	3.6%	3.78	3.89	+2.1
2030	31	MLB MLE	BOS	25	25	163	690	197	51	26	100%	6.5	28.5%	7.4%	21.1%	3.8%	3.98	4.12	+1.5
2031	32	MLB MLE	BOS	23	23	151	638	177	50	26	100%	6.6	27.7%	7.8%	19.9%	4.1%	4.22	4.38	+0.9
2027	28	MLB CTX	BOS	30	30	195	823	252	54	26	100%	6.5	30.6%	6.6%	24.0%	3.2%	3.46	3.48	+3.3
2028	29	MLB CTX	BOS	29	29	186	785	235	53	26	100%	6.4	30.0%	6.8%	23.2%	3.3%	3.56	3.63	+2.8
2029	30	MLB CTX	BOS	27	27	175	739	216	52	26	100%	6.5	29.3%	7.1%	22.2%	3.5%	3.73	3.84	+2.1
2030	31	MLB CTX	BOS	25	25	163	688	196	51	26	100%	6.5	28.5%	7.4%	21.1%	3.7%	3.93	4.07	+1.5
2031	32	MLB CTX	BOS	23	23	151	638	177	50	25	100%	6.6	27.7%	7.8%	19.9%	4.0%	4.16	4.32	+0.9
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		277	205	1329	5556	1668	390	180	74%	4.8	30.0%	7.0%	23.0%	3.2%	3.55	3.23	+27.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		42	31	200	836	251	59	27	74%	4.8	30.0%	7.0%	23.0%	3.2%	3.55	3.23	+4.1
Career	—	MLE		154	70	467	1917	596	139	51	45%	3.0	31.1%	7.2%	23.8%	2.7%	3.20	2.86	+16.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	30	200	822	255	60	22	45%	3.0	31.1%	7.2%	23.8%	2.7%	3.20	2.86	+2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Garrett Crochet (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.14	32.5%	5.8%	3.0%	—	3.69	29.9%	23.1%	557	+0.55	—	—	—
Danny Duffy L 2016 · 3.85 FIP	27	SP-	3.85	25.7%	5.7%	4.0%	.287	4.22	20.8%	12.4%	432	+0.37	3.29	915	51
Alex Wood L 2018 · 3.16 FIP	27	SP-	3.16	21.2%	5.5%	2.1%	.285	3.70	24.6%	18.1%	187	+0.54	2.94	1,009	50
Cole Ragans L 2023 · 3.14 FIP	25	SP-	3.14	28.1%	10.6%	1.9%	.283	3.24	31.3%	22.0%	283	+0.10	2.48	623	45
David Peterson L 2023 · 4.16 FIP	27	SP-	4.16	24.9%	10.7%	3.3%	.356	3.57	20.1%	10.9%	421	-0.59	2.81	1,061	45
Tyler Lyons L 2015 · 3.78 FIP	27	SP-	3.78	22.2%	4.4%	3.6%	.313	3.64	26.0%	18.5%	158	-0.14	2.65	376	40
Matt Strahm L 2019 · 3.94 FIP	27	SW	3.94	24.2%	3.7%	4.4%	.301	3.58	24.1%	16.9%	65	-0.36	1.68	757	40
Matthew Boyd L 2018 · 4.30 FIP	27	SP	4.30	22.4%	7.2%	4.0%	.252	4.32	26.2%	19.5%	324	+0.02	2.22	1,440	39
Manny Banuelos L 2018 · 3.48 FIP	27	SP-	3.48	23.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.338	5.89	18.7%	5.9%	51	+2.41	2.95	486	38
Ryan Yarbrough L 2019 · 3.06 FIP	27	SP-	3.06	22.1%	3.2%	2.6%	.267	4.10	17.9%	12.8%	318	+1.04	3.06	1,324	38
Vidal Nuño L 2015 · 4.10 FIP	28	SW	4.10	20.0%	4.8%	3.8%	.289	4.25	20.8%	16.1%	173	+0.15	4.00	424	37
Jake Kalish L 2018 · 2.99 FIP	27	SP-	2.99	19.5%	4.1%	1.9%	.334	5.99	18.3%	11.6%	215	+3.00	2.68	740	36
James Paxton L 2016 · 3.09 FIP	27	SP	3.09	22.9%	5.1%	2.3%	.328	3.11	30.1%	22.8%	447	+0.02	2.46	924	34
Robbie Ray L 2019 · 4.12 FIP	27	SP	4.12	31.5%	10.6%	4.2%	.298	4.10	29.5%	20.9%	434	-0.02	3.17	1,607	34
Phil Pfeifer L 2019 · 3.61 FIP	27	SP-	3.61	21.9%	8.5%	2.4%	.298	5.65	19.5%	4.7%	35	+2.04	3.61	307	33
Matt Tomshaw L 2016 · 3.04 FIP	27	SP-	3.04	22.7%	5.4%	2.1%	.301	3.56	16.1%	11.0%	423	+0.52	3.04	681	33
Max Fried L 2021 · 3.11 FIP	27	SP	3.11	23.7%	6.1%	2.2%	.274	2.86	23.6%	17.7%	437	-0.25	2.56	1,435	32
Steven Matz L 2018 · 4.33 FIP	27	SP	4.33	23.2%	8.6%	3.8%	.259	4.21	22.5%	15.9%	342	-0.12	3.19	1,220	32
Shane McClanahan L 2023 · 3.83 FIP	26	SP	3.83	25.8%	8.7%	3.3%	.274	3.44	21.8%	13.8%	118	-0.39	2.95	643	32
Cody Bradford L 2023 · 3.77 FIP	25	SP-	3.77	19.5%	4.9%	3.1%	.291	3.64	19.1%	14.4%	111	-0.13	3.37	456	32
Tyler Skaggs L 2018 · 3.42 FIP	27	SP	3.42	24.2%	7.5%	2.6%	.323	3.64	23.3%	14.9%	80	+0.22	3.18	372	30

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.3	176	29.8%	6.9%	1.36	3.68
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Noah Syndergaard ('23)	4.7	134	23.8%	5.5%	0.95	3.70
Luis Garcia ('23)	1.7	113	25.5%	7.7%	1.19	3.63
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47