Taylor Rogers

P Minnesota Twins

Age 36 LHP 6'3" / 190 lbs MLB peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR
2024	33	MLBSF	64	60	2.40	3.58	25.7%	8.8%	0.7
2025	34	MLBCHC	57	51	3.38	4.05	24.0%	9.5%	0.3
2026	35	MLBMIN	65	60	4.33	3.63	19.6%	9.1%	0.7
2027PROJ	36	MLBMIN	41	43	4.02	4.31	20.7%	9.1%	0.1
2028PROJ	37	MLBMIN	19	20	4.43	4.71	19.6%	9.8%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.6 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs50

K%32

FB Velo16

Form2.86 ERA (proj 4.02) · K 20.6% (proj 20.7%) · BB 13.7% (proj 9.1%) ▼ last 90d · 22 IP through Oct 27

CompsBrian Shouse (age 36) · Heriberto Ruelas (age 35) · Hisanori Takahashi (age 36)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 95104vR 112

ERA4.02

FIP4.31

K%20.7%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%11.6%

Proj IP43

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 43 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1692.1

Whiff%

p1018.9%

p3219.6%

xwOBA vs

p500.312

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	24	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	28	27	174	732	126	42	9	96%	6.2	15.1%	6.0%	9.1%	1.4%	3.98	3.36	—
2015	24	AAA RAW	Rochester Red Wings	28	27	174	732	126	42	9	96%	6.2	17.2%	5.7%	11.5%	1.2%	3.98	3.05	—
2016	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	64	2	79	349	79	19	8	3%	1.2	22.1%	5.5%	16.6%	2.3%	4.08	3.21	+1.3
2016	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	64	2	79	349	79	19	8	3%	1.2	22.6%	5.4%	17.2%	2.3%	4.08	3.14	+1.3
2017	26	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	69	0	56	237	49	16	6	0%	0.8	20.7%	6.8%	13.9%	2.5%	3.07	3.59	+0.6
2017	26	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	69	0	56	237	49	16	6	0%	0.8	20.7%	6.8%	13.9%	2.5%	3.07	3.60	+0.6
2018	27	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	72	0	68	260	75	13	3	0%	0.9	28.8%	5.0%	23.8%	1.1%	2.63	1.93	+2.2
2018	27	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	72	0	68	260	75	13	3	0%	0.9	28.8%	5.0%	23.8%	1.2%	2.63	2.05	+2.1
2019	28	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	60	0	69	278	90	9	8	0%	1.1	32.4%	3.2%	29.1%	2.9%	2.61	2.35	+1.8
2019	28	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	60	0	69	278	90	9	8	0%	1.1	32.4%	3.2%	29.1%	2.9%	2.61	2.39	+1.8
2020	29	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	21	0	20	91	24	4	2	0%	1.0	26.4%	4.4%	22.0%	2.2%	4.05	2.63	+0.5
2020	29	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	21	0	20	91	24	4	2	0%	1.0	26.4%	4.4%	22.0%	2.2%	4.05	2.60	+0.5
2021	30	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	40	0	40	166	59	6	4	0%	1.0	35.5%	3.6%	31.9%	2.4%	3.35	1.87	+1.3
2021	30	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	40	0	40	166	59	6	4	0%	1.0	35.5%	3.6%	31.9%	2.4%	3.35	1.91	+1.3
2022	31	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	66	0	64	274	84	17	7	0%	1.0	30.7%	6.2%	24.5%	2.4%	4.76	2.63	+1.5
2022	31	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	66	0	64	274	84	17	7	0%	1.0	30.7%	6.2%	24.5%	2.6%	4.76	2.70	+1.4
2023	32	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	60	0	52	216	64	22	6	0%	0.9	29.6%	10.2%	19.4%	3.0%	3.83	3.54	+0.6
2023	32	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	60	0	52	216	64	22	6	0%	0.9	29.6%	10.2%	19.4%	2.8%	3.83	3.41	+0.7
2024	33	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	64	0	60	249	64	22	7	0%	0.9	25.7%	8.8%	16.9%	3.0%	2.40	3.72	+0.6
2024	33	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	64	0	60	249	64	22	7	0%	0.9	25.7%	8.8%	16.9%	3.0%	2.40	3.72	+0.6
2024	33	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	64	0	60	249	64	22	7	0%	0.9	25.7%	8.8%	16.9%	2.8%	2.40	3.58	+0.7
2025	34	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	57	0	51	221	53	21	7	0%	0.9	24.0%	9.5%	14.5%	3.3%	3.38	4.08	+0.3
2025	34	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	57	0	51	221	53	21	7	0%	0.9	24.0%	9.5%	14.5%	3.3%	3.38	4.08	+0.3
2025	34	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	57	0	51	221	53	21	7	0%	0.9	24.0%	9.5%	14.5%	3.2%	3.38	4.05	+0.3
2026	35	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	65	0	60	276	54	25	5	0%	0.9	19.6%	9.1%	10.5%	1.8%	4.33	3.58	+0.7
2026	35	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	65	0	60	276	54	25	5	0%	0.9	19.6%	9.1%	10.5%	1.8%	4.33	3.58	+0.7
2026	35	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	65	0	60	276	54	25	5	0%	0.9	19.6%	9.1%	10.5%	1.8%	4.33	3.63	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			631	0	602	2532	680	168	62	0%	1.0	26.9%	6.6%	20.2%	2.4%	3.44	3.02	+11.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	36	MLB	MIN	41	0	43	182	38	17	5	0%	1.0	20.7%	9.1%	11.6%	2.6%	4.02	4.31	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	37	MLB MLE	MIN	19	0	20	85	17	8	3	0%	1.1	19.6%	9.8%	9.9%	3.0%	4.43	4.71	-0.0
2028	37	MLB CTX	MIN	19	0	20	84	17	8	3	0%	1.1	19.6%	9.8%	9.9%	3.0%	4.43	4.71	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		650	0	622	2617	697	176	65	0%	1.0	26.6%	6.7%	19.9%	2.5%	3.47	3.06	+11.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		209	0	200	842	224	57	21	0%	1.0	26.6%	6.7%	19.9%	2.5%	3.47	3.06	+3.6
Career	—	MLE		666	29	794	3349	804	218	74	4%	1.2	24.0%	6.5%	17.5%	2.2%	3.58	3.12	+11.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		168	7	200	844	203	55	19	4%	1.2	24.0%	6.5%	17.5%	2.2%	3.58	3.12	+3.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2016 AAARochester Red Wings · 18 IPFIP 3.15 → 3.47 (+0.32)K% 17.6% → 15.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.65%	—	×0.880	15.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.06%	—	×1.050	7.41%
HR / BF /BF	1.18%	÷0.951	×1.100	1.36%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 3.15 → 3.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAARochester Red Wings · 174 IPFIP 3.05 → 3.36 (+0.31)K% 17.2% → 15.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.21%	—	×0.880	15.15%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.74%	—	×1.050	6.02%
HR / BF /BF	1.23%	÷0.956	×1.100	1.41%

Result: FIP 3.05 → 3.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Taylor Rogers (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.6%	—	4.71	19.6%	9.9%	20	+0.40	—	—	—
Brian Shouse L 2005 · 4.24 FIP	36	SU	4.24	15.0%	6.0%	3.0%	.271	3.35	15.0%	9.6%	137	-0.89	2.32	339	77
Heriberto Ruelas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	35	SU	3.42	17.2%	6.7%	1.7%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	117	74
Hisanori Takahashi L 2011 · 3.64 FIP	36	SU	3.64	18.5%	6.0%	2.4%	.249	4.04	24.5%	18.4%	50	+0.40	3.50	240	71
Tim Byrdak L 2010 · 4.48 FIP	36	SU	4.48	17.1%	11.8%	2.4%	.308	2.92	27.6%	18.1%	68	-1.56	2.85	320	66
Brandon Mann L 2018 · 3.59 FIP	34	SU	3.59	17.8%	11.4%	1.0%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	190	66
Raul Valdes L 2013 · 4.07 FIP	35	SU	4.07	24.3%	5.3%	4.3%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	160	65
Juan Pablo Perez L 2015 · 3.68 FIP	36	SU	3.68	26.5%	15.3%	1.6%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	64
Mike Zagurski L 2018 · 3.12 FIP	35	SU	3.12	30.4%	9.3%	2.6%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	51
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	39
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	38
Juan Sandoval R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	36	SU	3.42	16.7%	7.2%	1.5%	.298	5.41	15.9%	8.7%	57	+1.99	3.24	225	38
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2003 · 3.30 FIP	35	SU	3.30	19.3%	8.7%	1.3%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	2.76	223	38
Joe Nelson R 2009 · 5.35 FIP	34	SU	5.35	19.8%	14.3%	3.9%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	139	36
Peter Moylan R 2015 · 3.11 FIP	36	SU	3.11	18.4%	8.2%	0.9%	.259	3.84	18.2%	9.1%	145	+0.73	2.54	431	35
Matt Miller R 2006 · 4.98 FIP	34	SU	4.98	18.5%	13.8%	3.1%	.214	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	101	35
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	35
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	34
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2015 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	12.4%	6.0%	1.1%	.328	3.26	14.8%	10.4%	69	-0.17	2.99	119	33
Rafael Martín R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	35	SU	4.71	22.5%	6.0%	5.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	227	32
Salvador Valdez R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	36	SW	4.30	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	326	32

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	51	26.2%	7.9%	0.96	3.51
Ryan Pressly ('25)	3.5	53	25.2%	7.2%	0.86	3.33
Paul Assenmacher ('86-'99, 12 WAR*)	4.3	61	27.8%*	8.3%*	0.98*	3.61*
Jake McGee ('22)	2.9	48	26.0%	6.6%	1.10	3.71
Joakim Soria ('21)	3.8	54	26.4%	7.3%	0.79	3.11
Jay Howell ('80-'94, 14 WAR*)	4.2	60	25.4%*	8.2%*	0.80*	3.74*
Joe Hoerner ('63-'77, 8 WAR*)	2.8	51	23.2%*	7.9%*	1.21*	3.52*