Chris Paddack
P
Miami Marlins
+0.6
WAR
Age 30
RHP
6'5" / 217 lbs
MLB
peak 0.6 · 2026
ERA5.02
FIP4.89
xFIP3.60
SIERA3.54
K%18.2%
BB%6.0%
K-BB%12.2%
IP144
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2026
K†4045
FB Velo
p2993.0
Whiff%
p5225.6%
K%
p5222.5%
xwOBA vs
p510.311
SI (9%)
CU (9%)
FB (41%)
CH (26%)
SL-0.9 (12%)
CT-3.5 (11%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 19 | ROK | GCL Marlins | 11 | 7 | 45 | 180 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 14.7% | 4.9% | 0.8% | 2.18 | 2.90 | +1.1 |
| 2016 | 20 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 9 | 9 | 42 | 153 | 71 | 5 | 2 | 34.3% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 0.85 | 1.75 | +1.5 |
| 2018 | 22 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 17 | 17 | 90 | 340 | 120 | 7 | 4 | 27.6% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.10 | 2.02 | +3.3 |
| 2019 | 23 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 26 | 26 | 141 | 568 | 153 | 30 | 23 | 26.9% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.33 | 3.71 | +2.5 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 12 | 12 | 59 | 245 | 58 | 12 | 14 | 23.7% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.73 | 4.20 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 23 | 22 | 108 | 459 | 99 | 21 | 15 | 21.6% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 5.07 | 3.64 | +2.0 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 5 | 5 | 22 | 93 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 21.5% | 2.2% | 0.0% | 4.03 | 1.56 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 5 | 2 | 15 | 61 | 23 | 4 | 2 | — | — | — | 4.30 | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 17 | 17 | 88 | 384 | 79 | 21 | 14 | 20.6% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 4.99 | 4.09 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 33 | 28 | 158 | 670 | 112 | 37 | 31 | 16.7% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.35 | 4.81 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 4 | 3 | 19 | 87 | 18 | 5 | 4 | 20.7% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.59 | 4.60 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | SD | 19 | 19 | 105 | 442 | 83 | 26 | 18 | 18.8% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 4.69 | 4.50 | +1.0 |
| 2026 Total | 30 | MLB | SD | — | — | 124 | 529 | 101 | 31 | 22 | 19.1% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 4.83 | 4.52 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | SD | 19 | 19 | 103 | 434 | 79 | 26 | 18 | 18.2% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 5.02 | 4.98 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | SD | 15 | 15 | 85 | 358 | 63 | 22 | 15 | 17.6% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 5.07 | 5.10 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | SD | 13 | 13 | 70 | 294 | 56 | 16 | 13 | 18.9% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.00 | 4.95 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | SD | 57 | — | 57 | 240 | 44 | 14 | 11 | 18.2% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 5.06 | 5.09 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | SD | 46 | — | 46 | 195 | 34 | 12 | 9 | 17.5% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 5.17 | 5.24 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | SD | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 26 | 10 | 7 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 5.31 | 5.41 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 162 | 148 | 788 | 3240 | 735 | 155 | 109 | 22.7% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 4.02 | 3.63 | +14.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 38 | 200 | 822 | 186 | 39 | 28 | 22.7% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 4.02 | 3.63 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chris Paddack (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.90 | 18.0% | 5.9% | 4.0% | — | 5.01 | 18.2% | 12.2% | 257 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Ervin Santana R 2028 · 4.00 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.00 | 17.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .273 | 4.12 | 19.2% | 12.4% | 417 | +0.12 | 3.75 | 720 | 64 |
| Edgar Gonzalez R 2028 · 4.30 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.30 | 11.0% | 4.7% | 2.8% | .293 | 3.62 | 10.8% | 5.2% | 216 | -0.68 | 3.19 | 450 | 63 |
| Josh Roenicke R 2028 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.89 | 10.9% | 7.0% | 3.3% | .353 | 3.35 | 19.2% | 11.5% | 160 | -1.54 | 3.27 | 283 | 63 |
| Jason Berken R 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.5% | 6.6% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.51 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 106 | +0.15 | 4.36 | 219 | 62 |
| Jerome Williams R 2029 · 4.66 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.66 | 13.4% | 5.6% | 3.6% | .326 | 5.79 | 11.7% | 5.6% | 74 | +1.13 | 4.66 | 195 | 62 |
| Jeremy Kehrt R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.17 | 12.7% | 7.4% | 2.2% | .333 | 4.72 | 8.5% | -4.6% | 21 | +0.55 | 3.38 | 262 | 61 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2028 · 4.56 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .316 | 4.46 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.10 | 4.46 | 143 | 61 |
| Dillon Gee R 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.15 | 16.2% | 6.2% | 4.8% | .302 | 3.80 | 18.0% | 12.1% | 127 | -1.35 | 3.68 | 380 | 60 |
| Donovan Hand R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.31 | 11.1% | 4.3% | 2.9% | .305 | 4.54 | 12.5% | 5.7% | 140 | +0.23 | 4.31 | 237 | 59 |
| Colin Bates R 2023 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.57 | 10.5% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.57 | 111 | 59 |
| Scott McGregor R 2024 · 4.41 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.41 | 11.8% | 7.6% | 2.4% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.41 | 107 | 59 |
| Scott Feldman R 2028 · 4.16 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.16 | 13.5% | 5.8% | 2.7% | .291 | 4.32 | 18.4% | 12.4% | 188 | +0.16 | 3.98 | 297 | 59 |
| Frankie De La Cruz R 2029 · 3.74 FIP | 33 | SP- | 3.74 | 15.2% | 8.0% | 1.7% | .262 | 4.37 | 16.2% | 8.2% | 114 | +0.63 | 3.74 | 240 | 59 |
| Caleb Clay R 2023 · 4.67 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.67 | 9.9% | 6.9% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 111 | 59 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.08 | 13.7% | 8.7% | 1.9% | .270 | 3.56 | 19.1% | 10.5% | 220 | -0.52 | 3.14 | 593 | 58 |
| Scott Carroll R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.96 | 12.7% | 7.7% | 1.7% | .286 | 5.08 | 11.2% | 2.6% | 128 | +1.12 | 3.96 | 248 | 58 |
| Leo Medrano R 2028 · 3.75 FIP | 32 | SP- | 3.75 | 14.2% | 3.9% | 2.5% | .354 | 4.34 | 11.0% | 3.7% | 113 | +0.59 | 3.75 | 222 | 58 |
| Dylan Axelrod R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.77 | 14.1% | 6.6% | 3.7% | .304 | 4.31 | 13.7% | 7.4% | 133 | -0.46 | 4.31 | 251 | 57 |
| Cesar Carrillo R 2027 · 4.16 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.16 | 13.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .307 | 4.46 | 12.6% | 2.6% | 145 | +0.30 | 4.16 | 325 | 57 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.94 | 17.4% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .315 | 4.95 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 305 | +1.01 | 3.94 | 567 | 57 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.