Chris Paddack
P
Cincinnati Reds
Age 30
RHP
6'5" / 217 lbs
MLB
peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION147 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.62
FIP4.72
xFIP3.60
SIERA3.54
K%17.6%
BB%6.5%
K-BB%11.1%
IP147
K†4040
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
FB Velo
p2993.0
Whiff%
p5225.6%
K%
p5222.5%
xwOBA vs
p510.311
SI (7%)
CU (11%)
FB (41%)
CH (27%)
SL-0.9 (9%)
CT-3.5 (12%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 19 | ROK | GCL Marlins | 11 | 7 | 45 | 180 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 14.7% | 4.9% | 0.8% | 2.18 | 2.90 | +0.9 |
| 2016 | 20 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 9 | 9 | 42 | 153 | 71 | 5 | 2 | 34.3% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 0.85 | 1.89 | +1.3 |
| 2018 | 22 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 17 | 17 | 90 | 340 | 120 | 7 | 4 | 27.6% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.10 | 2.25 | +3.1 |
| 2019 | 23 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 26 | 26 | 141 | 568 | 153 | 30 | 23 | 26.9% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.33 | 3.88 | +2.5 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 12 | 12 | 59 | 245 | 58 | 12 | 14 | 23.7% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 4.73 | 5.09 | -0.4 |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 23 | 22 | 108 | 459 | 99 | 21 | 15 | 21.6% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 5.07 | 3.79 | +2.0 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 5 | 5 | 22 | 93 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 21.5% | 2.2% | 0.0% | 4.03 | 1.56 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 5 | 2 | 15 | 61 | 23 | 4 | 2 | 37.7% | 6.6% | 3.3% | 4.30 | 2.55 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 17 | 17 | 88 | 384 | 79 | 21 | 14 | 20.6% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 4.99 | 4.04 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 33 | 28 | 158 | 670 | 112 | 37 | 31 | 16.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.35 | 5.16 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 15 | 12 | 67 | 311 | 55 | 22 | 12 | 17.7% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 6.72 | 4.62 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | MIA | 13 | 13 | 70 | 295 | 52 | 19 | 12 | 17.6% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 4.62 | 4.72 | +0.0 |
| 2026 Total | 30 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 137 | 606 | 107 | 41 | 24 | 17.6% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 5.65 | 4.67 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 23 | 23 | 128 | 539 | 91 | 37 | 24 | 16.8% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 5.20 | 5.33 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 21 | 21 | 118 | 498 | 80 | 36 | 23 | 16.0% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 5.43 | 5.59 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 20 | 20 | 108 | 457 | 69 | 35 | 22 | 15.2% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 5.69 | 5.87 | -0.6 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 18 | 18 | 99 | 416 | 59 | 34 | 22 | 14.2% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 5.98 | 6.17 | -0.9 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | MIA | 16 | 16 | 88 | 374 | 50 | 33 | 21 | 13.3% | 8.7% | 5.5% | 6.30 | 6.51 | -1.4 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | MIA | 14 | 14 | 78 | 331 | 47 | 28 | 20 | 14.3% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 6.48 | 6.61 | -1.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 173 | 157 | 836 | 3464 | 772 | 172 | 130 | 22.3% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 4.20 | 3.90 | +14.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 38 | 200 | 829 | 185 | 41 | 31 | 22.3% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 4.20 | 3.90 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chris Paddack (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.15 | 17.4% | 5.9% | 4.3% | — | 5.58 | 16.0% | 8.8% | 354 | +0.43 | — | — | — |
| Merrill Kelly R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.21 | 20.3% | 6.8% | 3.6% | .289 | 3.67 | 21.1% | 14.8% | 390 | -0.54 | 3.54 | 1,073 | 67 |
| Matt Garza R 2027 · 4.78 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.78 | 15.6% | 8.1% | 3.6% | .315 | 4.45 | 15.5% | 7.7% | 216 | -0.33 | 4.12 | 365 | 64 |
| Miguel González R 2027 · 4.59 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.59 | 17.5% | 7.9% | 3.6% | .289 | 4.25 | 15.9% | 9.0% | 325 | -0.34 | 3.73 | 469 | 64 |
| Lance Lynn R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.55 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 3.5% | .237 | 3.28 | 25.9% | 17.8% | 449 | -1.27 | 2.87 | 1,390 | 64 |
| Alex Cobb R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.38 | 15.4% | 5.7% | 3.4% | .298 | 3.92 | 21.3% | 13.4% | 158 | -0.46 | 2.78 | 844 | 64 |
| Cory Riordan R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.19 | 14.3% | 5.0% | 3.0% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 154 | 64 |
| Daniel McCutchen R 2028 · 4.47 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.47 | 13.9% | 4.4% | 3.6% | .268 | 4.60 | 10.8% | 4.9% | 155 | +0.13 | 4.47 | 287 | 63 |
| Thad Weber R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.82 | 13.7% | 6.4% | 3.8% | .293 | 4.63 | 11.2% | 5.7% | 202 | -0.19 | 4.55 | 363 | 63 |
| Aníbal Sánchez R 2027 · 4.89 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.89 | 20.9% | 7.3% | 4.8% | .276 | 4.56 | 22.2% | 15.0% | 411 | -0.33 | 3.49 | 869 | 62 |
| Ian Kennedy R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.46 | 24.4% | 6.7% | 4.7% | .293 | 4.91 | 21.1% | 13.0% | 469 | +0.45 | 2.87 | 864 | 61 |
| Matt Buschmann R 2027 · 3.92 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.92 | 17.2% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .282 | 4.71 | 12.8% | 4.4% | 142 | +0.79 | 3.92 | 277 | 61 |
| Tom Koehler R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.39 | 19.0% | 9.8% | 3.0% | .291 | 4.71 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 110 | +0.32 | 4.39 | 474 | 60 |
| Nestor Molina R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.12 | 16.1% | 7.4% | 2.6% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 401 | 59 |
| Nate Long R 2025 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.86 | 14.8% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 151 | 59 |
| Kyle Kendrick R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 30 | SP | 5.10 | 12.7% | 6.8% | 4.0% | .294 | 4.80 | 14.4% | 9.9% | 195 | -0.30 | 4.34 | 337 | 59 |
| Chase Anderson R 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 30 | SP | 5.21 | 19.9% | 8.9% | 4.9% | .235 | 5.07 | 20.1% | 11.9% | 253 | -0.14 | 3.42 | 1,146 | 58 |
| Rick Porcello R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.43 | 18.6% | 5.6% | 4.0% | .303 | 3.14 | 20.7% | 15.0% | 59 | -1.29 | 3.14 | 1,023 | 57 |
| Christian Bergman R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.52 | 15.7% | 6.3% | 3.5% | .327 | 7.15 | 13.2% | 6.6% | 26 | +2.63 | 3.80 | 467 | 57 |
| Marco Estrada R 2028 · 4.32 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.32 | 18.1% | 7.3% | 3.3% | .213 | 4.55 | 20.6% | 12.0% | 506 | +0.23 | 4.04 | 710 | 57 |
| Miles Mikolas R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.97 | 18.8% | 4.1% | 3.5% | .295 | 3.91 | 18.4% | 13.4% | 266 | -0.06 | 3.06 | 1,241 | 57 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.