Hunter Greene — OGILVIE

Hunter Greene P Cincinnati Reds

Age 26 RHP 6'5" / 242 lbs MLB Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 3.1 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 135 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9385vR 77

ERA3.20

FIP3.14

K%29.6%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%21.9%

ROS IP135

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit option yr━ post-control+$21M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—60

STUF6065

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†7070

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.3

Whiff%

p6227.2%

p7827.3%

xwOBA vs

p390.325

FB+17.1 (54%)

SL+3.3 (35%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2028

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.7M	+0.1	$0.3M	-$0.5M
2027	Ext	$9M	+2.2	$16M	+$8M
2028	Ext	$9M	+2.1	$14M	+$7M
Totals		$18M		$31M	+$15M

Options · projected decision
2029	CLUB OPT	$8.8M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2030	CLUB OPT	$21.0M / $2.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	17	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	3	3	4	21	6	1	0	100%	1.4	28.6%	4.8%	23.8%	0.0%	12.46	1.29	—
2017	17	ROK RAW	Billings Mustangs	3	3	4	21	6	1	0	100%	1.4	28.6%	4.8%	23.8%	0.0%	12.46	1.02	—
2018	18	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	18	18	68	294	89	23	6	100%	3.8	22.4%	9.2%	13.2%	2.4%	4.48	3.70	—
2018	18	A RAW	Dayton Dragons	18	18	68	294	89	23	6	100%	3.8	30.3%	7.8%	22.4%	2.0%	4.48	2.65	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	106	438	139	39	13	100%	5.1	27.0%	9.5%	17.5%	3.1%	3.30	3.74	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	106	438	139	39	13	100%	5.1	31.7%	8.9%	22.8%	3.0%	3.30	3.18	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	133	561	179	50	24	100%	4.9	30.9%	9.0%	21.8%	4.2%	4.34	3.93	+1.5
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	133	561	179	50	24	100%	4.9	31.9%	8.9%	23.0%	4.3%	4.34	3.88	+1.6
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	26	126	554	167	55	21	100%	4.8	30.5%	9.6%	20.9%	3.5%	4.57	3.68	+1.9
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	26	126	554	167	55	21	100%	4.8	30.5%	9.6%	20.9%	3.5%	4.57	3.68	+1.9
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	26	126	554	167	55	21	100%	4.8	30.1%	9.9%	20.2%	3.8%	4.57	3.93	+1.5
2024	24	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	26	26	150	611	169	57	12	100%	5.8	27.7%	9.3%	18.3%	1.8%	2.75	2.94	+3.7
2024	24	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	26	26	150	611	169	57	12	100%	5.8	27.7%	9.3%	18.3%	1.8%	2.75	2.94	+3.7
2024	24	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	26	26	150	611	169	57	12	100%	5.8	27.7%	9.3%	18.3%	2.0%	2.75	3.03	+3.5
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	23	121	475	156	31	19	100%	5.2	31.4%	6.2%	25.2%	3.3%	3.13	3.05	+2.8
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	23	121	475	156	31	19	100%	5.2	31.4%	6.2%	25.2%	3.3%	3.13	3.05	+2.8
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	23	121	475	156	31	19	100%	5.2	32.8%	6.5%	26.3%	4.0%	3.13	3.33	+2.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			96	96	523	2181	650	188	74	100%	5.5	29.8%	8.6%	21.2%	3.4%	3.82	3.53	+8.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	8	8	42	170	46	11	4	100%	5.2	27.3%	7.4%	19.8%	3.1%	4.50	3.42	+0.8
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	8	8	42	170	46	11	4	100%	5.2	27.3%	7.4%	19.8%	3.1%	4.50	3.42	+0.8
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	ROK RAW	CIN	1	1	4	14	6	1	0	100%	4.0	42.9%	7.1%	35.7%	0.0%	0.00	0.39	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	CIN	2	2	10	35	7	1	0	100%	5.2	20.0%	2.9%	17.1%	0.0%	0.00	1.77	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	CIN	5	5	28	121	33	9	4	100%	5.5	27.3%	7.4%	19.8%	3.3%	6.83	3.55	+0.5
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	CIN	5	5	28	121	33	9	4	100%	5.5	27.3%	7.4%	19.8%	3.3%	6.83	3.55	+0.5
ROS	26	MLB MLE	CIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	29.6%	7.7%	21.9%	2.9%	3.20	3.14	—
ROS	26	MLB CTX	CIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	29.6%	7.7%	21.9%	3.1%	3.33	3.27	—
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	CIN	—	—	42	170	46	11	4	—	—	27.1%	6.5%	20.6%	2.4%	4.50	3.42	+0.6
FULL	26	MLB A+C	CIN	—	—	28	117	46	11	4	—	—	39.4%	9.4%	30.0%	3.4%	6.83	2.85	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CIN	23	23	137	580	173	45	17	100%	6.0	29.9%	7.8%	22.1%	3.0%	3.59	3.58	+2.2
2028	28	MLB MLE	CIN	23	23	137	580	173	46	18	100%	6.0	29.8%	7.9%	21.9%	3.1%	3.63	3.66	+2.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	CIN	22	22	131	554	162	45	18	100%	6.0	29.2%	8.1%	21.1%	3.2%	3.75	3.82	+1.7
2030	30	MLB MLE	CIN	21	21	123	520	148	44	18	100%	5.9	28.5%	8.4%	20.1%	3.4%	3.92	4.03	+1.3
2031	31	MLB MLE	CIN	19	19	115	485	135	43	18	100%	6.0	27.8%	8.8%	19.0%	3.7%	4.12	4.26	+0.9
2032	32	MLB MLE	CIN	18	18	106	449	121	41	18	100%	5.9	27.0%	9.2%	17.8%	3.9%	4.36	4.52	+0.5
2033	33	MLB MLE	CIN	16	16	98	412	107	40	17	100%	6.1	26.1%	9.6%	16.5%	4.2%	4.62	4.80	+0.1
2034	34	MLB MLE	CIN	15	15	89	375	94	38	17	100%	5.9	25.2%	10.1%	15.1%	4.5%	4.91	5.10	-0.2
2027	27	MLB CTX	CIN	23	23	137	578	173	45	19	100%	6.0	29.9%	7.8%	22.1%	3.2%	3.72	3.71	+2.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	CIN	23	23	137	578	172	46	19	100%	6.0	29.8%	7.9%	21.9%	3.3%	3.77	3.80	+2.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	CIN	22	22	131	553	162	45	19	100%	6.0	29.2%	8.1%	21.1%	3.5%	3.89	3.96	+1.7
2030	30	MLB CTX	CIN	20	20	123	519	148	44	19	100%	6.2	28.5%	8.4%	20.1%	3.7%	4.07	4.18	+1.3
2031	31	MLB CTX	CIN	19	19	115	486	135	43	19	100%	6.1	27.8%	8.8%	19.0%	4.0%	4.28	4.42	+0.9
2032	32	MLB CTX	CIN	18	18	106	448	121	41	19	100%	5.9	27.0%	9.2%	17.8%	4.2%	4.53	4.69	+0.5
2033	33	MLB CTX	CIN	16	16	98	414	108	40	19	100%	6.1	26.1%	9.6%	16.5%	4.5%	4.80	4.98	+0.1
2034	34	MLB CTX	CIN	15	15	89	376	95	38	18	100%	5.9	25.2%	10.1%	15.1%	4.8%	5.11	5.30	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		252	252	1460	6134	1763	529	226	100%	5.8	28.7%	8.6%	20.1%	3.7%	4.06	3.79	+19.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	841	242	72	31	100%	5.8	28.7%	8.6%	20.1%	3.7%	4.06	3.79	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		152	152	751	3124	897	273	96	100%	4.9	28.7%	8.7%	20.0%	3.1%	3.79	3.47	+17.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	40	200	832	239	73	26	100%	4.9	28.7%	8.7%	20.0%	3.1%	3.79	3.47	+2.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hunter Greene (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.41	31.0%	7.8%	2.9%	—	3.68	29.6%	21.7%	406	+0.27	—	—	—
Trevor Bauer R 2017 · 3.74 FIP	26	SP	3.74	26.2%	8.0%	3.4%	.333	2.96	30.2%	22.2%	461	-0.78	2.16	1,111	63
Tyler Glasnow R 2020 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP	3.65	38.2%	9.2%	4.8%	.281	2.73	34.5%	26.7%	221	-0.92	2.06	1,130	61
Danny Salazar R 2016 · 3.58 FIP	26	SP	3.58	27.6%	10.3%	2.8%	.303	3.34	33.0%	23.0%	103	-0.24	3.34	425	60
Jon Gray R 2018 · 3.66 FIP	26	SP	3.66	24.6%	6.9%	3.2%	.317	3.76	22.6%	14.4%	338	+0.10	2.93	1,345	58
Logan Gilbert R 2023 · 3.72 FIP	26	SP	3.72	24.5%	4.5%	3.9%	.271	3.40	28.6%	23.2%	512	-0.32	3.04	1,142	56
Mike Foltynewicz R 2018 · 3.17 FIP	26	SP	3.17	27.2%	8.7%	2.3%	.246	4.80	18.7%	11.8%	307	+1.63	3.17	938	56
Kevin Gausman R 2017 · 4.11 FIP	26	SP	4.11	21.9%	8.7%	3.2%	.333	3.76	23.2%	16.8%	346	-0.35	2.34	1,930	55
Shohei Ohtani R 2021 · 3.14 FIP	27	SP	3.14	29.3%	7.9%	2.8%	.259	2.86	32.4%	24.1%	298	-0.28	1.76	613	55
Lucas Giolito R 2020 · 2.99 FIP	26	SP	2.99	33.7%	9.7%	2.7%	.252	4.17	26.4%	18.2%	525	+1.18	2.84	1,542	55
Luis Castillo R 2019 · 3.37 FIP	26	SP	3.37	28.9%	10.1%	2.6%	.258	3.06	26.2%	18.1%	408	-0.31	2.44	1,858	54
Luke Weaver R 2020 · 4.56 FIP	26	SP	4.56	23.3%	7.6%	4.5%	.346	4.41	20.7%	13.8%	225	-0.15	2.54	1,038	54
Vince Velasquez R 2018 · 3.41 FIP	26	SP	3.41	25.6%	9.2%	2.4%	.309	4.76	25.5%	15.9%	246	+1.35	3.26	959	54
José Ureña R 2018 · 3.86 FIP	26	SP	3.86	18.3%	6.0%	2.8%	.262	4.78	15.5%	7.2%	209	+0.92	3.86	1,251	52
Shane Bieber R 2021 · 2.83 FIP	26	SP	2.83	33.1%	8.1%	2.7%	.322	3.14	23.1%	17.8%	328	+0.31	1.82	1,210	52
Stephen Strasburg R 2015 · 2.70 FIP	27	SP	2.70	29.6%	5.0%	2.7%	.308	2.81	29.5%	22.9%	453	+0.11	2.42	811	52
Chad Kuhl R 2018 · 4.58 FIP	25	SP	4.58	21.7%	8.6%	4.1%	.305	5.17	21.8%	9.0%	127	+0.59	3.92	983	52
Zach Eflin R 2020 · 3.13 FIP	26	SP	3.13	28.6%	6.1%	3.0%	.342	3.06	24.1%	20.6%	359	-0.07	2.81	1,337	51
Luis Garcia R 2023 · 3.40 FIP	26	SP	3.40	27.0%	8.7%	2.7%	.310	3.54	23.7%	18.6%	17	+0.14	3.40	535	51
Gerrit Cole R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	26	SP	4.12	23.1%	6.4%	4.0%	.296	2.67	36.6%	29.8%	486	-1.45	2.48	1,829	50
Louis Varland R 2023 · 4.12 FIP	25	SP-	4.12	22.7%	6.4%	3.9%	.309	3.34	25.0%	18.0%	279	-0.78	1.69	684	50

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.3	118	28.5%	8.5%	1.34	3.98
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94