Hunter Greene

P Cincinnati Reds

Age 27 RHP 6'5" / 242 lbs MLB Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 1.9 · 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBSPIL-6040-MANExtFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MLBCIN	26	26	150	2.75	3.03	27.7%	9.3%	4.5
2025	25	MIX3 levels	23	23	121	3.13	3.33	32.8%	6.5%	3.1	K 31.4% · BB 6.2% · FIP 3.05
2026	26	MIX3 levels	8	8	42	4.50	2.93	27.1%	6.5%	1.3	K 27.3% · BB 7.4% · FIP 3.42
2027PROJ	27	MLBCIN	8	8	51	3.47	3.45	30.4%	7.4%	1.2
2028PROJ	28	MLBCIN	14	14	84	3.64	3.67	30.3%	7.5%	1.9
2029PROJ	29	MLBCIN	13	13	80	3.76	3.84	29.7%	7.8%	1.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 8.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 4.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2028Service5.000First FA2028Options2

2027Ext$9M2028Ext$9M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

K%78

xwOBA vs39

CompsYoshinobu Yamamoto (age 25) · Dinelson Lamet (age 27) · Luis Castillo (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9991vR 83

ERA3.47

FIP3.45

K%30.4%

BB%7.4%

K-BB%23.1%

Proj IP51

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit option yr━ post-control+$11M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.3

Whiff%

p6227.2%

p7827.3%

xwOBA vs

p390.325

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2022

Service 5.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2028

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$9M	+1.2	$10M	+$0.8M
2028	Ext	$9M	+1.9	$14M	+$6M
Totals		$18M		$24M	+$7M

Options · projected decision
2029	CLUB OPT	$8.8M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2030	CLUB OPT	$21.0M / $2.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	17	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	3	3	4	21	6	1	0	100%	1.4	28.6%	4.8%	23.8%	0.0%	12.46	1.29	—
2017	17	ROK RAW	Billings Mustangs	3	3	4	21	6	1	0	100%	1.4	28.6%	4.8%	23.8%	0.0%	12.46	1.02	—
2018	18	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	18	18	68	294	89	23	6	100%	3.8	22.4%	9.2%	13.2%	2.4%	4.48	3.70	—
2018	18	A RAW	Dayton Dragons	18	18	68	294	89	23	6	100%	3.8	30.3%	7.8%	22.4%	2.0%	4.48	2.65	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	106	438	139	39	13	100%	5.1	27.0%	9.5%	17.5%	3.1%	3.30	3.74	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	106	438	139	39	13	100%	5.1	31.7%	8.9%	22.8%	3.0%	3.30	3.18	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	133	561	179	50	24	100%	4.9	30.9%	9.0%	21.8%	4.2%	4.34	3.93	+2.3
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	133	561	179	50	24	100%	4.9	31.9%	8.9%	23.0%	4.3%	4.34	3.88	+2.4
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	26	126	554	167	55	21	100%	4.8	30.5%	9.6%	20.9%	3.5%	4.57	3.68	+2.6
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	26	126	554	167	55	21	100%	4.8	30.1%	9.9%	20.2%	3.8%	4.57	3.93	+2.2
2024	24	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	26	26	150	611	169	57	12	100%	5.8	27.7%	9.3%	18.3%	1.8%	2.75	2.94	+4.7
2024	24	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	26	26	150	611	169	57	12	100%	5.8	27.7%	9.3%	18.3%	1.8%	2.75	2.94	+4.7
2024	24	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	26	26	150	611	169	57	12	100%	5.8	27.7%	9.3%	18.3%	2.0%	2.75	3.03	+4.5
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	23	121	475	156	31	19	100%	5.2	31.4%	6.2%	25.2%	3.3%	3.13	3.05	+3.5
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	23	121	475	156	31	19	100%	5.2	31.4%	6.2%	25.2%	3.3%	3.13	3.05	+3.5
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	23	121	475	156	31	19	100%	5.2	32.8%	6.5%	26.3%	4.0%	3.13	3.33	+3.1
2026	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	8	8	42	170	46	11	4	100%	5.2	27.3%	7.4%	19.8%	3.1%	4.50	3.42	+1.0
2026	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	8	8	42	170	46	11	4	100%	5.2	27.3%	7.4%	19.8%	3.1%	4.50	3.42	+1.0
2026	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	8	8	42	170	46	11	4	100%	5.2	27.1%	6.5%	20.6%	2.4%	4.50	2.93	+1.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			96	96	523	2181	650	188	74	100%	5.5	29.8%	8.6%	21.2%	3.4%	3.82	3.53	+11.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	CIN	8	8	51	215	66	16	6	100%	6.4	30.4%	7.4%	23.1%	2.9%	3.47	3.45	+1.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	CIN	14	14	84	354	107	27	11	100%	6.0	30.3%	7.5%	22.8%	3.0%	3.51	3.54	+1.9
2029	29	MLB MLE	CIN	13	13	80	338	101	26	11	100%	6.2	29.7%	7.8%	22.0%	3.2%	3.62	3.70	+1.6
2030	30	MLB MLE	CIN	13	13	75	318	99	23	11	100%	5.8	31.0%	7.2%	23.8%	3.4%	3.63	3.63	+1.6
2031	31	MLB MLE	CIN	12	12	70	296	90	23	11	100%	5.9	30.3%	7.6%	22.7%	3.6%	3.77	3.87	+1.3
2032	32	MLB MLE	CIN	11	11	65	274	81	22	11	100%	5.9	29.5%	8.0%	21.5%	3.9%	3.98	4.12	+1.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	CIN	14	14	84	355	108	27	12	100%	6.0	30.3%	7.5%	22.8%	3.3%	3.64	3.67	+1.9
2029	29	MLB CTX	CIN	13	13	80	338	100	26	12	100%	6.2	29.7%	7.8%	22.0%	3.4%	3.76	3.84	+1.6
2030	30	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	75	317	98	23	12	100%	6.2	31.0%	7.2%	23.8%	3.7%	3.78	3.78	+1.6
2031	31	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	70	296	90	22	12	100%	5.8	30.3%	7.6%	22.7%	3.9%	3.93	4.03	+1.3
2032	32	MLB CTX	CIN	11	11	65	274	81	22	11	100%	5.9	29.5%	8.0%	21.5%	4.2%	4.15	4.29	+1.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		158	158	898	3762	1127	308	132	100%	5.7	30.0%	8.2%	21.8%	3.5%	3.83	3.53	+20.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	838	251	69	29	100%	5.7	30.0%	8.2%	21.8%	3.5%	3.83	3.53	+4.6
Career	—	MLE		152	152	751	3124	897	273	96	100%	4.9	28.7%	8.7%	20.0%	3.1%	3.79	3.47	+19.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	40	200	832	239	73	26	100%	4.9	28.7%	8.7%	20.0%	3.1%	3.79	3.47	+4.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALouisville Bats · 10 IPFIP 1.77 → 1.97 (+0.20)K% 20.0% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.860	17.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.86%	—	×0.900	2.57%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.77 → 1.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAALouisville Bats · 11 IPFIP 5.21 → 6.61 (+1.39)K% 41.7% → 35.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	41.67%	—	×0.860	35.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×0.900	7.50%
HR / BF /BF	8.33%	÷0.901	×1.100	10.17%

Result: FIP 5.21 → 6.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALouisville Bats · 12 IPFIP 5.08 → 5.29 (+0.21)K% 24.5% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.49%	—	×0.860	21.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×0.900	12.86%
HR / BF /BF	4.08%	÷1.054	×1.100	4.26%

Result: FIP 5.08 → 5.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAALouisville Bats · 7 IPFIP -0.28 → 0.27 (+0.55)K% 50.0% → 44.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	50.00%	—	×0.880	44.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.67%	—	×1.050	7.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.282	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 156).

Result: FIP -0.28 → 0.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAALouisville Bats · 65 IPFIP 4.02 → 4.39 (+0.37)K% 28.6% → 25.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.62%	—	×0.880	25.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.06%	—	×1.050	9.51%
HR / BF /BF	3.99%	÷1.088	×1.100	4.03%

Result: FIP 4.02 → 4.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 41 IPFIP 1.74 → 2.63 (+0.88)K% 37.0% → 30.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.04%	—	×0.810	30.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.64%	—	×1.100	9.51%
HR / BF /BF	1.23%	÷0.950	×1.200	1.56%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 1.74 → 2.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ADayton Dragons · 68 IPFIP 2.65 → 3.70 (+1.04)K% 30.3% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.27%	—	×0.740	22.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.82%	—	×1.180	9.23%
HR / BF /BF	2.04%	÷1.103	×1.300	2.41%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 121).

Result: FIP 2.65 → 3.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 ROKBillings Mustangs · 4 IPFIP 1.29 → 2.21 (+0.92)K% 28.6% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.57%	—	×0.680	19.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.76%	—	×1.250	5.95%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.29 → 2.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hunter Greene (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	3.62	30.4%	22.8%	239	+0.17	—	—	—
Yoshinobu Yamamoto R 2024 · 2.45 FIP	25	SP	2.45	28.5%	6.0%	1.8%	.303	2.98	27.5%	20.3%	359	+0.53	2.45	449	59
Dinelson Lamet R 2019 · 3.74 FIP	27	SP	3.74	32.7%	9.2%	4.1%	.286	2.90	31.4%	21.8%	148	-0.84	2.11	778	56
Luis Castillo R 2020 · 2.44 FIP	27	SP	2.44	30.5%	8.2%	1.6%	.328	3.35	26.1%	18.4%	535	+0.91	2.44	1,860	56
Joe Musgrove R 2020 · 3.31 FIP	27	SP	3.31	33.1%	9.6%	3.3%	.311	3.22	25.6%	19.7%	460	-0.09	3.02	1,255	53
Rubby De La Rosa R 2016 · 4.09 FIP	27	SP-	4.09	24.3%	8.6%	3.6%	.248	4.13	27.6%	18.3%	42	+0.04	3.75	455	52
Danny Salazar R 2017 · 3.34 FIP	27	SP	3.34	33.0%	10.0%	3.2%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.22	587	52
Aaron Civale R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	27	SP	3.63	24.4%	5.4%	3.5%	.294	4.08	21.7%	14.5%	385	+0.45	3.33	1,207	51
Brandon Woodruff R 2020 · 2.86 FIP	27	SP	2.86	31.1%	6.1%	2.9%	.263	2.85	30.0%	23.7%	400	-0.01	2.68	1,247	49
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	48
Gavin Williams R 2024 · 3.54 FIP	25	SP	3.54	24.7%	9.8%	2.3%	.317	3.83	29.1%	19.2%	352	+0.29	3.39	697	47
Shohei Ohtani R 2021 · 3.14 FIP	27	SP	3.14	29.3%	7.9%	2.8%	.259	2.86	32.4%	24.1%	298	-0.28	1.76	613	47
River Ryan R 2024 · 3.18 FIP	25	SP	3.18	23.4%	9.8%	1.5%	.280	2.44	22.7%	18.1%	41	-0.74	2.44	223	46
Connor Grey R 2021 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	22.1%	8.1%	2.8%	.286	4.37	16.2%	7.0%	104	+0.55	2.70	461	46
Tony Gonsolin R 2021 · 4.37 FIP	27	SP	4.37	27.2%	14.2%	3.2%	.250	3.92	21.7%	13.9%	233	-0.45	2.00	704	45
Alex Meyer R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	27	SP	3.99	25.5%	12.8%	2.6%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	230	45
Brandon Beachy R 2013 · 4.38 FIP	26	SP	4.38	19.2%	3.3%	4.5%	.250	4.58	16.1%	4.9%	47	+0.20	1.97	364	44
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.67	22.0%	14.9%	279	+0.48	3.19	310	44
Wilmer Font R 2017 · 2.76 FIP	27	SP	2.76	28.3%	6.6%	2.2%	.312	4.90	23.3%	15.3%	145	+2.14	2.76	345	44
Kyle Wright R 2023 · 4.41 FIP	27	SP-	4.41	21.9%	11.0%	3.2%	.354	5.09	19.7%	6.4%	13	+0.68	3.32	669	44
Jeff Bennett R 2007 · 4.36 FIP	27	SP-	4.36	24.6%	3.5%	5.3%	.289	3.93	14.7%	4.2%	144	-0.43	3.62	228	43

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.8	87	30.0%	8.1%	1.30	3.75
Tom Hall ('68-'77, 7 WAR*)	4.3	95	30.7%*	10.2%*	1.35*	3.95*
Ron Davis ('78-'88, 6 WAR*)	3.7	83	28.0%*	9.3%*	1.25*	4.20*
Cecilio Guante ('82-'90, 6 WAR*)	3.0	66	26.6%*	9.2%*	1.30*	3.85*
Eric Gagne ('08)	3.2	80	27.0%	8.5%	1.06	3.47
Will Smith ('24)	3.3	59	27.4%	8.7%	1.16	3.85
Ugueth Urbina ('05)	3.5	70	27.9%	10.5%	1.11	3.45