Hunter Greene
P
Cincinnati Reds
Age 26
RHP
6'5" / 242 lbs
MLB
Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 3.5 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION25 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9889vR 80
ERA3.49
FIP3.44
K%31.0%
BB%7.7%
K-BB%23.2%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 89 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit option yr━ post-control
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
FB+17.1 (54%)
SL+3.3 (35%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | Billings Mustangs | 3 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.4 | 28.6% | 4.8% | 23.8% | 0.0% | 12.46 | 1.29 | — |
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | Billings Mustangs | 3 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.4 | 28.6% | 4.8% | 23.8% | 0.0% | 12.46 | 1.02 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | A | Dayton Dragons | 18 | 18 | 68 | 294 | 89 | 23 | 6 | 100% | 3.8 | 22.4% | 9.2% | 13.2% | 2.2% | 4.48 | 3.59 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | A | Dayton Dragons | 18 | 18 | 68 | 294 | 89 | 23 | 6 | 100% | 3.8 | 30.3% | 7.8% | 22.4% | 2.0% | 4.48 | 2.65 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 106 | 438 | 139 | 39 | 13 | 100% | 5.1 | 27.0% | 9.5% | 17.5% | 3.0% | 3.30 | 3.65 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 106 | 438 | 139 | 39 | 13 | 100% | 5.1 | 31.7% | 8.9% | 22.8% | 3.0% | 3.30 | 3.18 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 133 | 561 | 179 | 50 | 24 | 100% | 4.9 | 30.9% | 9.0% | 21.8% | 4.3% | 4.34 | 3.99 | +2.2 |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 133 | 561 | 179 | 50 | 24 | 100% | 4.9 | 31.9% | 8.9% | 23.0% | 4.3% | 4.34 | 3.88 | +2.4 |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 26 | 126 | 554 | 167 | 55 | 21 | 100% | 4.8 | 30.5% | 9.6% | 20.9% | 3.6% | 4.57 | 3.73 | +2.5 |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 26 | 126 | 554 | 167 | 55 | 21 | 100% | 4.8 | 30.1% | 9.9% | 20.2% | 3.8% | 4.57 | 3.93 | +2.2 |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 26 | 26 | 150 | 611 | 169 | 57 | 12 | 100% | 5.8 | 27.7% | 9.3% | 18.3% | 1.9% | 2.75 | 2.97 | +4.3 |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 26 | 26 | 150 | 611 | 169 | 57 | 12 | 100% | 5.8 | 27.7% | 9.3% | 18.3% | 2.0% | 2.75 | 3.03 | +4.2 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 23 | 121 | 475 | 156 | 31 | 19 | 100% | 5.2 | 31.4% | 6.2% | 25.2% | 3.4% | 3.13 | 3.09 | +3.3 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 23 | 121 | 475 | 156 | 31 | 19 | 100% | 5.2 | 32.8% | 6.5% | 26.3% | 4.0% | 3.13 | 3.33 | +2.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 5 | 5 | 25 | 94 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 100% | 4.9 | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CIN | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 85 | 21 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 31.0% | 7.7% | 23.2% | 2.9% | 3.49 | 3.44 | +0.9 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CIN | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 85 | 21 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 31.0% | 7.7% | 23.2% | 3.0% | 3.53 | 3.48 | +0.9 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 89 | 368 | 117 | 28 | 9 | — | — | 31.8% | 7.7% | 24.1% | 2.4% | 3.33 | 2.49 | +2.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 75 | 317 | 117 | 28 | 9 | — | — | 36.8% | 8.9% | 27.9% | 2.9% | 4.01 | 2.70 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 23 | 23 | 137 | 580 | 188 | 48 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 32.4% | 8.2% | 24.2% | 2.9% | 3.37 | 3.37 | +3.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 23 | 23 | 137 | 580 | 187 | 48 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 32.3% | 8.3% | 24.0% | 3.0% | 3.42 | 3.45 | +3.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 22 | 22 | 131 | 554 | 176 | 47 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 31.7% | 8.6% | 23.1% | 3.1% | 3.54 | 3.61 | +2.7 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 21 | 21 | 123 | 520 | 161 | 46 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 31.0% | 8.9% | 22.1% | 3.3% | 3.71 | 3.82 | +2.3 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 19 | 19 | 115 | 485 | 147 | 45 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 30.3% | 9.2% | 21.0% | 3.6% | 3.91 | 4.05 | +1.8 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 18 | 18 | 106 | 449 | 132 | 43 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 29.5% | 9.6% | 19.8% | 3.8% | 4.15 | 4.31 | +1.4 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 16 | 16 | 98 | 412 | 118 | 41 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 28.6% | 10.1% | 18.5% | 4.1% | 4.41 | 4.59 | +0.9 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 23 | 23 | 137 | 578 | 188 | 47 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 32.4% | 8.2% | 24.2% | 3.0% | 3.41 | 3.41 | +3.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 23 | 23 | 137 | 578 | 187 | 48 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 32.3% | 8.3% | 24.0% | 3.1% | 3.47 | 3.50 | +3.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 22 | 22 | 131 | 553 | 175 | 47 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 31.7% | 8.6% | 23.1% | 3.2% | 3.59 | 3.66 | +2.7 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 20 | 20 | 123 | 519 | 161 | 46 | 18 | 100% | 6.2 | 31.0% | 8.9% | 22.1% | 3.4% | 3.76 | 3.87 | +2.2 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 19 | 19 | 115 | 486 | 147 | 45 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 30.3% | 9.2% | 21.0% | 3.7% | 3.96 | 4.10 | +1.7 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 18 | 18 | 106 | 448 | 132 | 43 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 29.5% | 9.6% | 19.8% | 3.9% | 4.21 | 4.37 | +1.3 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 16 | 16 | 98 | 414 | 118 | 42 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 28.6% | 10.1% | 18.5% | 4.2% | 4.47 | 4.65 | +0.8 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 247 | 247 | 1418 | 5957 | 1830 | 524 | 203 | 100% | 5.7 | 30.7% | 8.8% | 21.9% | 3.4% | 3.76 | 3.49 | +31.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 840 | 258 | 74 | 29 | 100% | 5.7 | 30.7% | 8.8% | 21.9% | 3.4% | 3.76 | 3.49 | +4.5 | ||
| Career | — | 149 | 149 | 733 | 3048 | 883 | 267 | 92 | 100% | 4.9 | 29.0% | 8.8% | 20.2% | 3.0% | 3.72 | 3.42 | +17.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 41 | 200 | 831 | 241 | 73 | 25 | 100% | 4.9 | 29.0% | 8.8% | 20.2% | 3.0% | 3.72 | 3.42 | +4.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Hunter Greene (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.44 | 31.0% | 7.7% | 2.9% | — | 3.47 | 32.2% | 23.8% | 406 | +0.03 | — | — | — |
| Stephen Strasburg R 2027 · 2.70 FIP | 27 | SP | 2.70 | 29.6% | 5.0% | 2.7% | .308 | 2.81 | 29.5% | 22.9% | 453 | +0.11 | 2.42 | 811 | 51 |
| Shohei Ohtani R 2027 · 3.23 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.23 | 29.3% | 7.9% | 2.9% | .259 | 2.94 | 32.4% | 24.1% | 298 | -0.29 | 1.85 | 613 | 50 |
| Tyler Glasnow R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.73 | 38.2% | 9.2% | 4.9% | .281 | 2.77 | 34.5% | 26.6% | 221 | -0.96 | 2.09 | 1,108 | 48 |
| Paul Skenes R 2024 · 2.67 FIP | 24 | SP | 2.67 | 29.5% | 5.5% | 2.5% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.08 | 456 | 48 |
| Cam Schlittler R 2025 · 2.71 FIP | 25 | SP | 2.71 | 29.2% | 5.3% | 2.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.71 | 428 | 47 |
| Nolan McLean R 2025 · 3.07 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.07 | 27.9% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 379 | 47 |
| Yu Darvish R 2029 · 2.90 FIP | 29 | SP | 2.90 | 30.6% | 7.6% | 2.6% | .284 | 3.86 | 29.1% | 21.2% | 405 | +0.96 | 1.91 | 1,253 | 47 |
| Dinelson Lamet R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.94 | 28.1% | 11.2% | 3.3% | .270 | 3.19 | 33.6% | 25.2% | 157 | -0.75 | 2.21 | 778 | 46 |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto R 2026 · 2.90 FIP | 26 | SP | 2.90 | 29.4% | 8.6% | 2.2% | .241 | 3.26 | 24.9% | 19.3% | 111 | +0.36 | 2.55 | 374 | 45 |
| Tylor Megill R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.99 | 27.3% | 7.4% | 4.1% | .302 | 4.02 | 22.1% | 12.5% | 323 | +0.03 | 3.01 | 603 | 45 |
| Danny Salazar R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.58 | 27.6% | 10.3% | 2.8% | .303 | 3.34 | 33.0% | 23.0% | 103 | -0.24 | 3.34 | 425 | 45 |
| Hunter Brown R 2026 · 2.89 FIP | 26 | SP | 2.89 | 28.3% | 7.7% | 2.2% | .258 | 4.56 | 25.5% | 11.1% | 35 | +1.67 | 2.84 | 773 | 44 |
| Christian Scott R 2025 · 4.64 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.64 | 24.2% | 6.8% | 5.0% | .249 | 3.95 | 27.5% | 17.8% | 68 | -0.69 | 2.65 | 302 | 44 |
| Blake Wehunt R 2025 · 3.98 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.98 | 26.8% | 8.1% | 3.9% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 209 | 44 |
| Trevor Bauer R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.75 | 26.2% | 8.0% | 3.4% | .333 | 2.99 | 30.2% | 22.2% | 461 | -0.76 | 2.16 | 1,111 | 43 |
| Emmet Sheehan R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 26.6% | 7.4% | 4.3% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.66 | 364 | 43 |
| Braxton Ashcraft R 2026 · 3.16 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.16 | 27.8% | 5.9% | 3.0% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 407 | 43 |
| Brandon Woodruff R 2026 · 2.81 FIP | 26 | SP | 2.81 | 29.0% | 6.1% | 2.5% | .315 | 2.93 | 30.3% | 24.0% | 406 | +0.12 | 2.61 | 1,247 | 42 |
| Jacob deGrom R 2027 · 2.58 FIP | 27 | SP | 2.58 | 27.3% | 4.8% | 2.1% | .269 | 2.68 | 28.8% | 23.0% | 566 | +0.10 | 0.75 | 1,489 | 42 |
| Andy Ferguson R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.57 | 22.3% | 5.7% | 3.0% | .262 | 3.13 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 33 | -0.44 | 3.13 | 137 | 42 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 123 | 31.0% | 8.8% | 1.28 | 3.71 |
| Trevor Bauer ('21) | 7 | 159 | 26.8% | 8.7% | 1.13 | 3.68 |
| James Paxton ('24) | 8 | 106 | 25.8% | 7.7% | 1.12 | 3.89 |
| Chris Archer ('22) | 6 | 164 | 26.9% | 8.3% | 1.21 | 4.10 |
| Rich Hill ('23) | 9 | 104 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 1.12 | 3.65 |
| Mike Clevinger ('23) | 7 | 113 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 1.07 | 3.45 |
| Stephen Strasburg ('21) | 6 | 135 | 29.4% | 6.8% | 0.98 | 3.32 |