Hunter Greene — OGILVIE

Hunter Greene P Cincinnati Reds

+0.9 WAR

INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)

Age 26 RHP 6'5" / 242 lbs MLB Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 2.9 · 2027

ERA3.49

FIP3.53

xFIP3.27

SIERA3.06

K%29.2%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%21.3%

IP128

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.9peak

2027

K†7070

FB Velo

p9099.5

Whiff%

p8931.4%

p9031.4%

xwOBA vs

p900.273

FB+17.1 (54%)

SL+3.3 (35%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2017	17	ROK	Billings Mustangs	3	3	4	21	6	1	0	—	—	—	12.46	—	—
2018	18	A	Dayton Dragons	18	18	68	294	89	23	6	22.4%	9.2%	2.4%	4.48	3.68	+1.0
2021	21	AAA	Louisville Bats	21	21	106	438	139	39	13	27.0%	9.5%	3.1%	3.30	3.73	+1.9
2022	22	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	27	27	133	561	179	50	24	30.9%	9.0%	4.4%	4.34	4.07	+1.9
2023	23	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	26	26	126	554	167	55	21	30.5%	9.6%	3.3%	4.57	3.57	+2.5
2024	24	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	26	26	150	611	169	57	12	27.7%	9.3%	1.7%	2.75	2.88	+4.1
2025	25	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	23	23	121	475	156	31	19	31.4%	6.2%	3.3%	3.13	3.03	+3.1
▸ 2026 Season
2026	26	MLB	CIN	38	—	38	162	52	13	5	31.9%	7.9%	2.8%	3.41	3.32	+0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	27	MLB	CIN	24	24	131	552	176	44	16	31.9%	8.0%	2.8%	3.36	3.33	+2.9
2028	28	MLB	CIN	24	24	131	552	176	44	16	31.9%	8.0%	2.8%	3.36	3.36	+2.9
2029	29	MLB	CIN	23	23	128	540	170	44	16	31.4%	8.1%	2.9%	3.40	3.43	+2.7
2030	30	MLB	CIN	23	23	124	524	162	43	15	30.9%	8.2%	2.9%	3.48	3.53	+2.5
2031	31	MLB	CIN	22	22	120	506	153	42	15	30.3%	8.3%	3.0%	3.57	3.63	+2.3
2032	32	MLB	CIN	21	21	115	486	144	41	15	29.7%	8.5%	3.1%	3.68	3.75	+2.0
2033	33	MLB	CIN	20	20	110	464	134	40	15	29.0%	8.6%	3.2%	3.80	3.87	+1.8
2034	34	MLB	CIN	19	19	104	440	125	39	14	28.3%	8.8%	3.3%	3.93	4.01	+1.5
2035	35	MLB	CIN	18	18	98	415	114	38	14	27.6%	9.1%	3.4%	4.07	4.16	+1.3
2036	36	MLB	CIN	17	17	92	388	104	36	14	26.8%	9.3%	3.5%	4.22	4.33	+0.9
2037	37	MLB	CIN	15	15	85	360	93	34	13	26.0%	9.6%	3.6%	4.39	4.50	+0.6
2038	38	MLB	CIN	14	14	78	331	90	30	13	27.1%	9.1%	3.8%	4.41	4.42	+0.6
2039	39	MLB	CIN	13	13	72	304	80	29	12	26.3%	9.4%	3.9%	4.53	4.61	+0.4
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			144	144	709	2954	851	260	90	28.8%	8.8%	3.0%	3.75	3.45	+14.8
/ 200 IP	—			41	41	200	834	240	73	25	28.8%	8.8%	3.0%	3.75	3.45	+4.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hunter Greene (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.32	31.9%	7.9%	2.8%	—	3.37	31.8%	23.8%	390	+0.05	—	—	—
Ken Giles R 2026 · 2.23 FIP	26	SW	2.23	33.6%	8.5%	1.6%	.288	2.43	32.6%	27.1%	103	+0.20	1.95	368	53
Zach McAllister R 2027 · 2.83 FIP	27	SW	2.83	28.1%	6.4%	2.4%	.333	3.89	23.5%	16.0%	159	+1.06	2.83	363	53
Ty Buttrey R 2026 · 3.18 FIP	26	SW	3.18	27.2%	7.4%	2.6%	.314	4.24	15.9%	5.2%	63	+1.06	2.43	522	52
Jeremiah Estrada R 2026 · 3.06 FIP	26	SW	3.06	35.5%	8.2%	3.5%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	1.85	239	51
Craig Kimbrel R 2027 · 2.46 FIP	27	SW	2.46	36.4%	8.8%	2.4%	.272	2.16	42.6%	32.3%	184	-0.30	1.10	556	50
Kelvin Herrera R 2026 · 2.35 FIP	26	SW	2.35	30.4%	4.2%	2.3%	.285	3.98	21.7%	15.1%	155	+1.63	2.35	297	50
David Bednar R 2026 · 2.44 FIP	26	SW	2.44	32.5%	7.2%	2.1%	.254	2.88	27.9%	20.5%	177	+0.44	1.66	510	50
Lou Trivino R 2026 · 3.60 FIP	26	SW	3.60	27.4%	9.0%	3.0%	.247	3.85	22.4%	11.8%	157	+0.25	2.39	550	50
Ben Heller R 2025 · 2.93 FIP	25	SW	2.93	32.4%	9.4%	2.5%	.243	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	246	49
Kyle Keller R 2026 · 3.81 FIP	26	SW	3.81	28.7%	9.4%	3.5%	.293	4.72	28.0%	17.8%	52	+0.91	2.73	264	49
Héctor Rondón R 2027 · 2.33 FIP	27	SW	2.33	24.6%	4.6%	1.3%	.262	3.36	28.3%	21.6%	167	+1.03	2.33	318	49
Corey Knebel R 2026 · 2.62 FIP	26	SW	2.62	39.5%	9.9%	2.9%	.292	3.74	27.8%	18.2%	39	+1.12	2.11	323	48
Drew Steckenrider R 2026 · 2.93 FIP	26	SW	2.93	33.6%	9.2%	2.7%	.281	4.19	26.6%	18.4%	79	+1.26	2.62	392	48
Justin Miller R 2028 · 2.67 FIP	28	SW	2.67	27.6%	8.0%	1.6%	.248	4.17	22.1%	14.7%	153	+1.50	2.67	279	48
Dany Jiménez R 2025 · 3.39 FIP	25	SW	3.39	30.5%	8.8%	3.2%	.317	3.32	29.6%	17.5%	79	-0.07	3.16	321	48
Nick Anderson R 2026 · 2.64 FIP	26	SW	2.64	25.2%	7.7%	1.3%	.276	2.48	32.7%	26.6%	179	-0.16	0.98	394	47
Tucker Healy R 2026 · 2.83 FIP	26	SW	2.83	30.4%	10.5%	1.8%	.294	4.61	16.9%	5.8%	67	+1.78	2.83	174	47
Sam Delaplane R 2024 · 2.58 FIP	24	SW	2.58	36.2%	9.5%	2.4%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	2.58	194	47
Alex Lange R 2026 · 3.02 FIP	26	SW	3.02	30.3%	11.1%	1.9%	.273	3.90	26.4%	10.5%	108	+0.88	3.02	451	47
Jeremy Jeffress R 2027 · 2.88 FIP	27	SW	2.88	23.5%	6.0%	1.8%	.301	3.29	22.1%	14.0%	200	+0.41	2.41	343	47

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

DEF 10%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-2	$8M	+0.9	$4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Arb-3	$15M	+2.9	$24M	+$9M
2028	Ext / FA-deal	$16M	+2.9	$25M	+$8M
2029	Ext / FA-deal	$21M	+2.7	$24M	+$3M
Totals		$56M		$76M	+$19M