Joe Musgrove
P
San Diego Padres
+0.4
WAR
INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)
Age 33
RHP
6'5" / 230 lbs
MLB
Svc 9.0 · Ctrl thru 2027
peak 1.0 · 2027
ERA3.73
FIP3.91
xFIP3.74
SIERA3.62
K%24.2%
BB%6.6%
K-BB%17.7%
IP89
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.0peak
2027
K†5560
FB Velo
p2993.0
Whiff%
p6928.3%
K%
p6324.6%
xwOBA vs
p390.324
CT+6.1 (20%)
SL+3.3 (20%)
SI (4%)
CU (23%)
CH-4.0 (8%)
FB-4.3 (29%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 19 | 14 | 101 | 392 | 99 | 8 | 9 | 19.6% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 1.88 | 3.20 | +2.4 |
| 2016 | 23 | MLB | Houston Astros | 27 | 24 | 147 | 595 | 142 | 26 | 18 | 21.8% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 3.30 | 3.52 | +3.0 |
| 2017 | 24 | MLB | Houston Astros | 39 | 16 | 116 | 484 | 105 | 29 | 18 | 21.2% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 4.49 | 4.18 | +1.5 |
| 2018 | 25 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 23 | 23 | 133 | 558 | 117 | 22 | 13 | 20.6% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 4.13 | 3.29 | +3.0 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 32 | 31 | 170 | 718 | 157 | 38 | 21 | 21.9% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 4.44 | 3.66 | +3.2 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 8 | 8 | 40 | 166 | 55 | 16 | 5 | 33.1% | 9.6% | 3.4% | 3.86 | 3.42 | +0.7 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 32 | 31 | 181 | 748 | 203 | 51 | 22 | 27.1% | 6.8% | 2.9% | 3.18 | 3.28 | +4.2 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 30 | 30 | 181 | 740 | 184 | 41 | 22 | 24.9% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 2.93 | 3.11 | +4.5 |
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 19 | 19 | 107 | 442 | 111 | 21 | 10 | 24.3% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 3.29 | 3.13 | +2.6 |
| 2024 | 31 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 20 | 20 | 103 | 424 | 103 | 23 | 14 | 24.6% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 3.93 | 3.43 | +2.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | SD | 27 | — | 27 | 113 | 27 | 7 | 3 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 3.0% | 3.66 | 3.98 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | SD | 15 | 15 | 85 | 358 | 81 | 24 | 11 | 22.8% | 6.8% | 3.1% | 3.93 | 4.12 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | SD | 15 | 15 | 80 | 337 | 81 | 21 | 11 | 24.0% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 3.97 | 4.00 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | SD | 14 | 14 | 75 | 315 | 73 | 20 | 10 | 23.2% | 6.5% | 3.3% | 4.09 | 4.16 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 37 | MLB | SD | 13 | 13 | 69 | 292 | 66 | 20 | 10 | 22.4% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 4.24 | 4.34 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 38 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 64 | 269 | 58 | 19 | 10 | 21.6% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 4.41 | 4.52 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 39 | MLB | SD | 59 | — | 59 | 247 | 51 | 18 | 9 | 20.7% | 7.3% | 3.7% | 4.59 | 4.71 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 249 | 216 | 1279 | 5267 | 1235 | 279 | 156 | 23.4% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 3.53 | 3.42 | +27.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 34 | 200 | 823 | 193 | 44 | 24 | 23.4% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 3.53 | 3.42 | +4.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joe Musgrove (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.98 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 3.0% | — | 4.09 | 23.3% | 16.8% | 239 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Zack Segovia R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.37 | 20.2% | 5.9% | 2.2% | .312 | 4.52 | 17.6% | 4.0% | 57 | +1.15 | 3.37 | 144 | 74 |
| Josh Lueke R 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 73 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.52 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 115 | 73 |
| Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.61 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 2.8% | .335 | 2.56 | 25.0% | 20.2% | 26 | -1.05 | 2.56 | 144 | 72 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.54 | 27.2% | 8.4% | 3.0% | .308 | 4.43 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 255 | +0.89 | 3.54 | 348 | 72 |
| Tim Dillard R 2026 · 3.12 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.12 | 22.6% | 8.2% | 1.6% | .358 | 4.15 | 13.7% | 6.9% | 250 | +1.03 | 3.12 | 352 | 71 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2028 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 71 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 71 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2024 · 4.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.20 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.9% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 137 | 71 |
| Daniel Bard R 2028 · 2.86 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.86 | 25.5% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | 3.60 | 25.3% | 12.0% | 175 | +0.74 | 2.45 | 200 | 71 |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.63 | 27.3% | 7.3% | 3.5% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 316 | 71 |
| Miguel Socolovich R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.57 | 18.4% | 4.7% | 2.6% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.65 | 283 | 70 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2025 · 3.29 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.29 | 18.9% | 5.2% | 2.1% | .296 | 2.73 | 24.5% | 18.6% | 25 | -0.56 | 2.73 | 316 | 69 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 2.86 FIP | 33 | SW | 2.86 | 25.6% | 6.3% | 2.1% | .240 | 3.85 | 26.8% | 18.2% | 43 | +0.99 | 2.56 | 268 | 69 |
| Spencer Patton R 2026 · 3.03 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.03 | 27.9% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .305 | 5.07 | 21.4% | 9.7% | 88 | +2.04 | 2.83 | 239 | 69 |
| Pat Neshek R 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.63 | 22.9% | 4.9% | 3.3% | .268 | 2.45 | 24.6% | 21.9% | 134 | -1.18 | 1.56 | 206 | 68 |
| Ryan Madson R 2027 · 2.94 FIP | 34 | SW | 2.94 | 23.4% | 5.2% | 2.1% | .244 | 2.97 | 23.9% | 18.7% | 176 | +0.03 | 1.43 | 240 | 68 |
| Fernando Salas R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.97 | 17.6% | 5.3% | 3.1% | .278 | 4.19 | 20.8% | 15.5% | 52 | +0.22 | 2.65 | 288 | 68 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.63 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 1.8% | .331 | 6.11 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.48 | 3.45 | 170 | 68 |
| Ryan Cook R 2024 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 67 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status FA
MLB Debut 2016
Service 9.366 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2027
First FA Year 2028
NTC
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Ext / FA-deal | $20M | +0.4 | $2M | -$18M |
| 2027 | Ext / FA-deal | $20M | +1.0 | $8M | -$12M |
| Totals | $40M | $10M | -$30M | ||