Joe Musgrove
P
San Diego Padres
Age 33
RHP
6'5" / 230 lbs
MLB
Svc 9.0 · Ctrl thru 2027
peak 1.0 · 2026
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 89 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111102vR 93
ERA3.80
FIP3.94
K%24.1%
BB%5.7%
K-BB%18.4%
ROS IP89
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 89 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p2993.0
Whiff%
p6928.3%
K%
p6324.6%
xwOBA vs
p390.324
CT+6.1 (20%)
SL+3.3 (20%)
SI (4%)
CU (23%)
CH-4.0 (8%)
FB-4.3 (29%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 14 | 101 | 392 | 99 | 8 | 9 | 74% | 5.3 | 19.6% | 2.3% | 17.3% | 2.6% | 1.88 | 3.16 | — |
| 2015 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 14 | 101 | 392 | 99 | 8 | 9 | 74% | 5.3 | 25.3% | 2.0% | 23.2% | 2.3% | 1.88 | 2.53 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 24 | 147 | 595 | 142 | 26 | 18 | 89% | 5.5 | 21.8% | 4.5% | 17.3% | 2.9% | 3.30 | 3.44 | +3.4 |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 24 | 147 | 595 | 142 | 26 | 18 | 89% | 5.5 | 23.9% | 4.4% | 19.5% | 3.0% | 3.30 | 3.29 | +3.6 |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 16 | 116 | 484 | 105 | 29 | 18 | 41% | 3.0 | 21.2% | 5.8% | 15.4% | 3.7% | 4.49 | 4.07 | +1.8 |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 16 | 116 | 484 | 105 | 29 | 18 | 41% | 3.0 | 21.7% | 6.0% | 15.7% | 3.7% | 4.49 | 4.05 | +1.8 |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 23 | 23 | 133 | 558 | 117 | 22 | 13 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.6% | 4.1% | 16.5% | 2.5% | 4.13 | 3.25 | +3.3 |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 23 | 23 | 133 | 558 | 117 | 22 | 13 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.0% | 3.9% | 17.0% | 2.3% | 4.13 | 3.11 | +3.6 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 32 | 31 | 170 | 718 | 157 | 38 | 21 | 97% | 5.3 | 21.9% | 5.3% | 16.6% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 3.55 | +3.7 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 32 | 31 | 170 | 718 | 157 | 38 | 21 | 97% | 5.3 | 21.9% | 5.3% | 16.6% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 3.53 | +3.7 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 8 | 8 | 40 | 166 | 55 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 5.0 | 33.1% | 9.6% | 23.5% | 3.0% | 3.86 | 3.19 | +0.6 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 8 | 8 | 40 | 166 | 55 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 5.0 | 33.1% | 9.6% | 23.5% | 3.0% | 3.86 | 3.18 | +0.6 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 32 | 31 | 181 | 748 | 203 | 51 | 22 | 97% | 5.7 | 27.1% | 6.8% | 20.3% | 3.2% | 3.18 | 3.41 | +4.2 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 32 | 31 | 181 | 748 | 203 | 51 | 22 | 97% | 5.7 | 27.1% | 6.8% | 20.3% | 2.9% | 3.18 | 3.28 | +4.5 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 30 | 30 | 181 | 740 | 184 | 41 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.9% | 5.5% | 19.3% | 3.2% | 2.93 | 3.46 | +4.1 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 30 | 30 | 181 | 740 | 184 | 41 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.9% | 5.5% | 19.3% | 3.0% | 2.93 | 3.33 | +4.4 |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 19 | 107 | 442 | 111 | 21 | 10 | 100% | 5.6 | 24.3% | 5.0% | 19.3% | 2.7% | 3.29 | 3.16 | +2.8 |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 19 | 107 | 442 | 111 | 21 | 10 | 100% | 5.6 | 25.1% | 4.8% | 20.4% | 2.3% | 3.29 | 2.83 | +3.2 |
| 2024 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 20 | 103 | 424 | 103 | 23 | 14 | 100% | 5.2 | 24.6% | 5.6% | 19.0% | 3.7% | 3.93 | 3.75 | +2.0 |
| 2024 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 20 | 103 | 424 | 103 | 23 | 14 | 100% | 5.2 | 24.3% | 5.4% | 18.9% | 3.3% | 3.93 | 3.54 | +2.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | SD | 10 | 10 | 60 | 253 | 61 | 14 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.1% | 5.7% | 18.4% | 3.2% | 3.80 | 3.94 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | SD | 14 | 14 | 81 | 343 | 79 | 21 | 12 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.2% | 6.2% | 17.0% | 3.5% | 4.07 | 4.25 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 73 | 308 | 75 | 18 | 12 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.2% | 6.0% | 18.2% | 3.9% | 4.22 | 4.31 | +0.4 |
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | SD | 14 | 14 | 81 | 342 | 79 | 21 | 12 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.2% | 6.2% | 17.0% | 3.4% | 4.00 | 4.18 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 73 | 308 | 75 | 18 | 11 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.2% | 6.0% | 18.2% | 3.7% | 4.15 | 4.24 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 232 | 206 | 1210 | 5036 | 1204 | 292 | 156 | 89% | 5.2 | 23.9% | 5.8% | 18.1% | 3.1% | 3.78 | 3.52 | +26.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 34 | 200 | 832 | 199 | 48 | 26 | 89% | 5.2 | 23.9% | 5.8% | 18.1% | 3.1% | 3.78 | 3.52 | +4.4 | ||
| Career | — | 249 | 216 | 1279 | 5267 | 1235 | 279 | 160 | 87% | 5.1 | 23.4% | 5.3% | 18.1% | 3.0% | 3.53 | 3.46 | +29.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 34 | 200 | 823 | 193 | 44 | 25 | 87% | 5.1 | 23.4% | 5.3% | 18.1% | 3.0% | 3.53 | 3.46 | +4.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joe Musgrove (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.94 | 24.1% | 5.7% | 3.2% | — | 4.28 | 23.7% | 17.6% | 154 | +0.34 | — | — | — |
| Carlos Carrasco R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.42 | 29.3% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .288 | 4.25 | 20.8% | 13.5% | 296 | +0.83 | 2.67 | 1,455 | 65 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.66 | 27.2% | 8.4% | 3.3% | .308 | 4.62 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 255 | +0.96 | 3.66 | 348 | 65 |
| Jose Oyervides R 2026 · 2.98 FIP | 33 | SP | 2.98 | 19.1% | 6.2% | 1.3% | .333 | 4.17 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 184 | +1.19 | 2.98 | 407 | 62 |
| Jarrett Grube R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.49 | 18.7% | 4.2% | 2.6% | .285 | 4.58 | 17.3% | 9.6% | 253 | +1.09 | 3.49 | 393 | 61 |
| Kenta Maeda R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.78 | 24.9% | 6.8% | 3.5% | .307 | 4.32 | 23.6% | 17.0% | 230 | +0.54 | 2.86 | 1,092 | 60 |
| Hector Ambriz R 2025 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.44 | 16.0% | 6.4% | 1.6% | .273 | 6.28 | 10.4% | 2.9% | 91 | +2.84 | 3.44 | 155 | 60 |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2024 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.29 | 16.3% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 125 | 59 |
| Lance Lynn R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.86 | 25.9% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .235 | 4.08 | 25.1% | 18.6% | 462 | +0.22 | 2.87 | 1,390 | 58 |
| Ian Kennedy R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.58 | 20.3% | 7.3% | 4.1% | .296 | 4.03 | 26.7% | 20.7% | 134 | -0.55 | 2.87 | 864 | 58 |
| Alex Cobb R 2026 · 2.78 FIP | 33 | SP | 2.78 | 24.9% | 8.4% | 1.3% | .311 | 3.33 | 21.8% | 15.6% | 317 | +0.55 | 2.78 | 844 | 58 |
| Clay Buchholz R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.50 | 19.0% | 6.4% | 2.2% | .254 | 5.36 | 15.4% | 9.5% | 59 | +1.86 | 2.49 | 433 | 58 |
| Manuel Flores R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.08 | 17.1% | 7.4% | 2.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 515 | 57 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2025 · 4.94 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.94 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 4.1% | .316 | 4.56 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.38 | 4.56 | 143 | 57 |
| Jorge Martinez R 2025 · 3.95 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.95 | 17.1% | 2.6% | 3.6% | .355 | 3.47 | 16.3% | 10.6% | 117 | -0.48 | 3.42 | 214 | 57 |
| Corey Kluber R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.63 | 22.6% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .360 | 3.48 | 21.4% | 16.2% | 244 | -0.15 | 2.27 | 1,190 | 56 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.79 | 14.5% | 6.9% | 1.9% | .270 | 4.53 | 14.9% | 7.5% | 176 | +0.74 | 3.79 | 264 | 56 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma R 2027 · 3.79 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.79 | 21.5% | 3.9% | 3.7% | .270 | 4.50 | 16.9% | 11.2% | 230 | +0.71 | 3.79 | 360 | 56 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.02 | 21.5% | 9.0% | 4.7% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 469 | 56 |
| Matt Garza R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.74 | 15.7% | 8.1% | 3.5% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.12 | 365 | 55 |
| Jordan Zimmermann R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.57 | 16.3% | 4.6% | 4.1% | .332 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 731 | 55 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 71 | 23.8% | 6.0% | 1.38 | 4.05 |
| Eli Morgan ('24) | 4 | 66 | 23.8% | 6.4% | 1.46 | 3.97 |
| Adbert Alzolay ('23) | 3 | 70 | 26.1% | 7.0% | 1.32 | 3.84 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Erik Swanson ('24) | 5 | 51 | 26.2% | 6.5% | 1.57 | 3.70 |
| Joe Blanton ('17) | 3 | 67 | 24.2% | 6.7% | 1.08 | 3.32 |
| Blake Parker ('21) | 4 | 60 | 26.6% | 7.3% | 1.40 | 3.36 |