Joe Musgrove — OGILVIE

Joe Musgrove P El Paso Chihuahuas

Age 33 RHP 6'5" / 230 lbs AAA peak 1.5 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 89 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110102vR 94

ERA3.81

FIP3.96

K%24.0%

BB%6.6%

K-BB%17.4%

ROS IP89

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 89 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2993.0

Whiff%

p6928.3%

p6324.6%

xwOBA vs

p390.324

CT+6.1 (20%)

SL+3.3 (20%)

SI (4%)

CU (23%)

CH-4.0 (8%)

FB-4.3 (29%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	14	101	392	99	8	9	74%	5.3	19.6%	2.3%	17.3%	2.7%	1.88	3.21	—
2015	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	14	101	392	99	8	9	74%	5.3	25.3%	2.0%	23.2%	2.3%	1.88	2.53	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	24	147	595	142	26	18	89%	5.5	21.8%	4.5%	17.3%	3.1%	3.30	3.56	+2.4
2016	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	24	147	595	142	26	18	89%	5.5	23.9%	4.4%	19.5%	3.0%	3.30	3.29	+2.9
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	16	116	484	105	29	18	41%	3.0	21.2%	5.8%	15.4%	4.0%	4.49	4.25	+0.4
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	16	116	484	105	29	18	41%	3.0	21.7%	6.0%	15.7%	3.7%	4.49	4.05	+0.7
2018	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	23	23	133	558	117	22	13	100%	5.8	20.6%	4.1%	16.5%	2.7%	4.13	3.35	+2.5
2018	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	23	23	133	558	117	22	13	100%	5.8	21.0%	3.9%	17.0%	2.3%	4.13	3.11	+3.0
2019	26	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	32	31	170	718	157	38	21	97%	5.3	21.9%	5.3%	16.6%	3.2%	4.44	3.66	+2.6
2019	26	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	32	31	170	718	157	38	21	97%	5.3	21.9%	5.3%	16.6%	2.9%	4.44	3.53	+2.8
2020	27	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	8	8	40	166	55	16	5	100%	5.0	33.1%	9.6%	23.5%	3.3%	3.86	3.31	+0.8
2020	27	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	8	8	40	166	55	16	5	100%	5.0	33.1%	9.6%	23.5%	3.0%	3.86	3.18	+0.8
2021	28	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	32	31	181	748	203	51	22	97%	5.7	27.1%	6.8%	20.3%	2.9%	3.18	3.25	+3.7
2021	28	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	32	31	181	748	203	51	22	97%	5.7	27.1%	6.8%	20.3%	2.9%	3.18	3.28	+3.6
2022	29	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	30	30	181	740	184	41	22	100%	6.0	24.9%	5.5%	19.3%	2.9%	2.93	3.29	+3.6
2022	29	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	30	30	181	740	184	41	22	100%	6.0	24.9%	5.5%	19.3%	3.0%	2.93	3.33	+3.5
2023	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	107	442	111	21	10	100%	5.6	24.3%	5.0%	19.3%	2.4%	3.29	3.02	+2.5
2023	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	107	442	111	21	10	100%	5.6	24.3%	5.0%	19.3%	2.4%	3.29	3.02	+2.5
2023	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	19	107	442	111	21	10	100%	5.6	25.1%	4.8%	20.4%	2.3%	3.29	2.83	+2.8
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	103	424	103	23	14	100%	5.2	24.6%	5.6%	19.0%	3.3%	3.93	3.56	+1.7
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	103	424	103	23	14	100%	5.2	24.6%	5.6%	19.0%	3.3%	3.93	3.56	+1.7
2024	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	20	103	424	103	23	14	100%	5.2	24.3%	5.4%	18.9%	3.3%	3.93	3.54	+1.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			206	180	1056	4385	1050	252	133	87%	5.1	23.9%	5.7%	18.2%	3.0%	3.73	3.46	+18.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	33	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	4	4	16	68	13	3	2	100%	3.9	14.6%	1.6%	13.0%	3.9%	4.60	4.19	—
YTD	33	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	4	4	16	68	13	3	2	100%	3.9	14.6%	1.6%	13.0%	3.9%	4.60	4.19	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	33	A RAW	SD	1	1	3	11	3	2	0	100%	2.7	27.3%	18.2%	9.1%	0.0%	3.38	3.10	—
2026	33	AAA RAW	SD	3	3	13	57	10	1	2	100%	4.3	17.5%	1.8%	15.8%	3.5%	4.85	3.77	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	SD	14	14	81	343	79	24	12	100%	5.8	23.1%	7.1%	16.0%	3.4%	4.09	4.27	+0.6
2028	35	MLB MLE	SD	12	12	73	308	74	21	11	100%	6.1	24.2%	6.8%	17.3%	3.7%	4.24	4.34	+0.5
2027	34	MLB CTX	SD	14	14	81	342	79	24	12	100%	5.8	23.1%	7.1%	16.0%	3.4%	4.14	4.32	+0.6
2028	35	MLB CTX	SD	12	12	73	308	75	21	12	100%	6.1	24.2%	6.8%	17.3%	3.8%	4.29	4.39	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		232	206	1210	5036	1204	297	156	89%	5.2	23.9%	5.9%	18.0%	3.1%	3.79	3.54	+20.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	34	200	832	199	49	26	89%	5.2	23.9%	5.9%	18.0%	3.1%	3.79	3.54	+3.3
Career	—	MLE		253	220	1295	5335	1245	280	162	87%	5.1	23.3%	5.2%	18.1%	3.0%	3.54	3.46	+19.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		39	34	200	824	192	43	25	87%	5.1	23.3%	5.2%	18.1%	3.0%	3.54	3.46	+3.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joe Musgrove (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.96	24.0%	6.6%	3.1%	—	4.30	23.6%	16.7%	154	+0.34	—	—	—
Clay Buchholz R 2018 · 3.61 FIP	33	SP	3.61	19.0%	6.4%	2.4%	.254	5.36	15.4%	9.5%	59	+1.75	2.51	433	67
Jarrett Grube R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	33	SP	3.75	18.7%	4.2%	3.1%	.285	4.57	17.3%	9.6%	253	+0.82	3.75	393	67
Alex Cobb R 2021 · 2.74 FIP	33	SP	2.74	24.9%	8.4%	1.2%	.311	3.32	21.8%	15.6%	317	+0.58	2.74	844	65
Jose Oyervides R 2015 · 3.01 FIP	33	SP	3.01	19.1%	6.2%	1.4%	.333	4.09	21.9%	14.5%	184	+1.08	3.01	407	65
Kenta Maeda R 2021 · 3.79 FIP	33	SP	3.79	24.9%	6.8%	3.5%	.307	4.26	23.5%	17.0%	230	+0.47	2.87	1,092	65
Josh Lindblom R 2020 · 3.50 FIP	33	SP	3.50	27.2%	8.4%	3.0%	.308	4.46	21.7%	13.8%	255	+0.96	3.50	348	64
Ubaldo Jiménez R 2017 · 4.95 FIP	33	SP-	4.95	21.5%	9.0%	4.6%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	469	64
Jason Hammel R 2016 · 4.37 FIP	33	SP	4.37	20.8%	7.7%	3.8%	.262	4.28	17.1%	11.3%	307	-0.09	3.54	645	63
Matt Garza R 2017 · 4.57 FIP	33	SP	4.57	15.7%	8.1%	3.2%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	365	63
Manuel Flores R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	33	SP	4.32	17.1%	7.4%	3.1%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	515	61
Hector Ambriz R 2016 · 3.63 FIP	32	SP	3.63	16.0%	6.4%	2.0%	.273	6.40	10.4%	2.9%	91	+2.77	3.63	155	60
Dillon Gee R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	31	SP-	3.85	18.0%	5.9%	2.8%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	380	60
Charlie Morton R 2017 · 3.16 FIP	33	SP	3.16	26.4%	7.9%	2.3%	.284	2.90	29.2%	21.3%	400	-0.26	2.52	1,534	60
Carlos Carrasco R 2020 · 3.42 FIP	33	SP	3.42	29.3%	9.6%	2.9%	.288	4.24	20.8%	13.5%	296	+0.82	2.67	1,455	60
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	34	SP	3.74	21.5%	3.9%	3.6%	.270	4.44	16.9%	11.2%	230	+0.70	3.74	360	60
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	59
Jake Peavy R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	34	SP	4.07	17.3%	5.7%	3.1%	.278	4.35	19.6%	12.9%	119	+0.28	4.07	262	59
Jair Jurrjens R 2017 · 4.27 FIP	31	SP	4.27	16.3%	7.9%	2.8%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	125	59
Doug Fister R 2017 · 3.63 FIP	33	SP	3.63	20.1%	8.8%	2.0%	.298	4.77	13.8%	7.2%	66	+1.14	3.63	455	59
Guillermo Moscoso R 2017 · 3.77 FIP	33	SP	3.77	14.5%	6.9%	1.8%	.270	4.64	14.9%	7.5%	176	+0.87	3.77	264	57

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	79	23.8%	6.8%	1.30	4.04
Adbert Alzolay ('23)	1.1	70	26.1%	7.0%	1.32	3.84
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Félix Peña ('20)	1.2	62	23.6%	8.3%	1.37	4.46
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Chris Devenski ('24)	1.9	62	26.0%	6.9%	1.25	3.61
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47