Nolan Arenado — OGILVIE

Nolan Arenado3B Arizona Diamondbacks

Age 35 R/R 6'2" / 215 lbs MLB HR -5% Svc 13.000 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 1.5 · 2026

wRC+†vL 8595vR 95

AVG/OBP/SLG.246 / .300 / .393

PA449

HR14

K%13

BB%6

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

68→68

PWR

60→60

SPD

38→38

FLD

70→70

EYE

44↗58

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.9peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2013

Service 13.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

NTCDEF 10%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+1.5	$12M	+$7M
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$6M	+0.4	$2M	-$4M
Totals		$11M		$14M	+$3M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2009	18	ROK	Casper Ghosts	225	209	50	11	0	2	10	26	2	5	2	.239	.281	.321	.601	.081	.259	12	4	.260	57	-11	+0	+0	+1	+6	-0.4
2010	19	A	Asheville Tourists	402	384	89	29	1	10	10	71	1	1	3	.232	.253	.391	.644	.159	.255	18	2	.272	66	-15	-1	+0	+1	+11	-0.4
2011	20	A+	2 teams	713	657	172	32	2	29	36	89	1	2	2	.262	.301	.449	.750	.187	.258	12	5	.323	105	+4	-0	+0	+3	+20	2.7
2012	21	AA	Tulsa Drillers	573	532	130	29	1	12	23	81	7	0	2	.244	.285	.370	.655	.126	.263	14	4	.287	78	-14	-1	+0	+2	+16	0.3
2013	22	MLB	2 teams	589	554	148	39	3	12	26	84	1	2	2	.267	.301	.413	.715	.146	.294	14	4	.309	95	-3	-0	+17	+2	+17	3.2
2014	23	MLB	2 teams	487	452	124	36	1	16	25	62	4	2	1	.274	.318	.465	.783	.190	.285	13	5	.339	117	+10	+0	+5	+2	+14	3.0
2015	24	MLB	Colorado Rockies	665	616	168	40	3	41	34	110	4	2	5	.273	.315	.547	.862	.274	.267	17	5	.348	125	+18	-2	+6	+2	+19	4.5
2016	25	MLB	Colorado Rockies	696	618	178	32	6	39	68	103	2	2	3	.288	.360	.549	.909	.261	.287	15	10	.370	141	+32	-1	+15	+2	+20	7.0
2017	26	MLB	Colorado Rockies	680	607	174	42	3	33	62	106	4	3	2	.287	.357	.529	.885	.242	.297	16	9	.364	136	+28	-0	+9	+2	+19	6.0
2018	27	MLB	Colorado Rockies	673	590	163	33	1	36	73	122	3	2	2	.276	.359	.519	.878	.242	.290	18	11	.364	137	+28	-0	+10	+2	+19	6.0
2019	28	MLB	Colorado Rockies	662	588	176	31	1	36	62	93	4	3	2	.299	.370	.539	.909	.240	.300	14	9	.374	144	+33	-0	+17	+2	+19	7.2
2020	29	MLB	Colorado Rockies	201	182	43	9	0	7	15	20	0	0	0	.236	.294	.401	.696	.165	.226	10	7	.297	85	-3	+0	+5	+1	+6	0.8
2021	30	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	653	593	151	33	3	37	50	96	3	2	0	.255	.316	.508	.823	.253	.244	15	8	.345	122	+16	+0	+9	+2	+19	4.7
2022	31	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	620	557	161	43	1	28	52	72	7	5	3	.289	.357	.521	.878	.232	.289	12	8	.377	147	+33	-0	+12	+2	+18	6.6
2023	32	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	612	560	147	28	2	26	41	101	3	3	3	.263	.316	.459	.775	.196	.274	17	7	.328	109	+6	-1	+5	+2	+17	3.1
2024	33	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	635	579	156	23	0	16	44	92	5	2	2	.269	.326	.392	.718	.123	.293	14	7	.313	98	-2	-0	+9	+2	+18	2.8
2025	34	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	436	401	96	17	1	13	28	49	3	3	0	.239	.294	.384	.678	.145	.242	11	6	.291	81	-10	+1	+3	+2	+12	0.9
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	35	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	88	84	22	2	0	4	3	19	0	0	0	.262	.287	.429	.716	.167	.290	22	3	.309	94	-1	+0	-1	+0	+2	0.2
ROS	35	MLB	ARI	361	335	85	14	1	12	21	54	2	2	1	.254	.302	.409	.711	.155	.266	15	6	.310	95	-2	+0	+4	+1	+10	1.3
TOT	35	MLB	ARI	449	419	107	16	1	16	24	73	2	2	1	.255	.299	.413	.712	.158	.273	16	5	.310	95	-2	+0	+3	+2	+13	1.5
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	36	MLB	ARI	370	344	83	13	1	11	21	45	2	1	0	.241	.289	.381	.670	.140	.250	12	6	.300	88	-5	+0	-3	+1	+10	0.4
2028	37	MLB	ARI	305	283	69	11	1	9	17	40	2	1	0	.244	.291	.385	.677	.141	.246	13	6	.290	80	-7	+0	-4	+1	+9	-0.1
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			10558	9641	2563	545	32	425	718	1516	60	43	35	.266	.321	.461	.782	.195	.273	14	7	.331	111	+137	-5	+119	+38	+299	60.0
/ 162G	—			650	594	158	34	2	26	44	93	4	3	2	.266	.321	.461	.783	.195	.273	14	7	.331	111	+8	-0	+7	+2	+18	3.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2009	18	ROK	Casper Ghosts	225	203	61	15	0	2	16	18	2	5	2	.300	.357	.404	.761	.103	.316	8	7	.337	116	+4	+0	—	—	+6	1.1
2010	19	A	Asheville Tourists	402	373	115	41	1	12	19	52	1	1	3	.308	.342	.520	.862	.212	.326	13	5	.369	141	+18	-1	—	—	+11	2.9
2011	20	A+	Modesto Nuts	583	517	154	32	3	20	47	53	1	2	1	.298	.358	.487	.845	.190	.293	9	8	.361	135	+23	+0	—	—	+17	4.0
2011	20	INTL	Salt River Rafters	130	121	47	12	0	6	8	14	0	0	1	.388	.426	.636	1.063	.248	.402	11	6	.459	210	+16	-0	—	—	+4	2.0
2012	21	AA	Tulsa Drillers	573	516	147	36	1	12	39	58	7	0	2	.285	.343	.428	.772	.143	.296	10	7	.338	117	+11	-1	—	—	+16	2.7
2013	22	MLB	Colorado Rockies	514	486	130	29	4	10	23	72	1	2	0	.267	.302	.405	.707	.138	.296	14	4	.311	96	-2	+0	+17	+2	+15	3.2
2013	22	AAA	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	75	66	24	11	0	3	5	9	0	0	2	.364	.408	.667	1.075	.303	.368	12	7	.439	194	+8	-1	—	—	+2	0.9
2014	23	MLB	Colorado Rockies	467	432	124	34	2	18	25	58	4	2	1	.287	.332	.500	.832	.213	.294	12	5	.360	134	+18	+0	+5	+2	+13	3.8
2014	23	AAA	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	20	20	7	2	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	.350	.350	.450	.800	.100	.412	15	0	.355	130	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2015	24	MLB	Colorado Rockies	665	616	177	43	4	42	34	110	4	2	5	.287	.329	.575	.903	.287	.284	17	5	.384	152	+39	-2	+6	+2	+19	6.6
2016	25	MLB	Colorado Rockies	696	618	182	35	6	41	68	103	2	2	3	.294	.366	.570	.936	.275	.293	15	10	.401	165	+51	-1	+15	+2	+20	9.0
2017	26	MLB	Colorado Rockies	680	606	187	43	7	37	62	106	4	3	2	.309	.376	.586	.962	.277	.320	16	9	.412	173	+56	-0	+9	+2	+19	8.9
2018	27	MLB	Colorado Rockies	673	590	175	38	2	38	73	122	3	2	2	.297	.377	.561	.938	.264	.314	18	11	.404	167	+51	-0	+10	+2	+19	8.4
2019	28	MLB	Colorado Rockies	662	588	185	31	2	41	62	93	4	3	2	.315	.384	.583	.967	.269	.312	14	9	.415	176	+57	-0	+17	+2	+19	9.7
2020	29	MLB	Colorado Rockies	201	182	46	9	0	8	15	20	0	0	0	.253	.310	.434	.744	.181	.241	10	7	.323	105	+1	+0	+5	+1	+6	1.3
2021	30	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	653	593	151	34	3	34	50	96	3	2	0	.255	.316	.494	.810	.239	.249	15	8	.350	126	+19	+0	+9	+2	+19	5.0
2022	31	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	620	557	163	42	1	30	52	72	7	5	3	.293	.360	.533	.894	.241	.290	12	8	.388	155	+39	-0	+12	+2	+18	7.2
2023	32	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	612	560	149	26	2	26	41	101	3	3	3	.266	.320	.459	.778	.193	.279	17	7	.339	118	+12	-1	+5	+2	+17	3.7
2024	33	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	635	578	157	23	0	16	44	92	5	2	2	.272	.328	.394	.722	.123	.296	14	7	.321	104	+3	-0	+9	+2	+18	3.3
2025	34	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	436	401	95	18	1	12	28	49	3	3	0	.237	.292	.377	.668	.140	.241	11	6	.297	85	-7	+1	+3	+2	+12	1.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			7514	6807	1921	405	34	353	577	1094	43	31	23	.282	.342	.507	.849	.225	.288	15	8	.368	140	+338	-3	+122	+27	+213	71.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nolan Arenado (OGILVIE)	35	68	60	38	58	.249/.297/.398	.149	.252	15	2	11%	6%	95	+1.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Rondell White 2007 · MLB	35	53→62	49→60	43→40	46	.268/.312/.419	.152	.289	17	3	14%	5%	106	+2.2	.239/.289/.381	.142	.264	16	5	16%	5%	86	+0.8	.201/.261/.342	.141	.212	17	0	15%	5%	63	-0.2
✕Mike Cervenak 2013 · AAA	36	52→61	46→50	41→40	46	.258/.301/.382	.124	.284	14	4	15%	5%	92	+1.2	.256/.297/.370	.114	.286	12	6	15%	5%	86	+0.8	.255/.288/.342	.086	.283	8	4	13%	4%	73	-0.1
✕Juan Rivera 2012 · MLB	34	52→62	50→60	41→40	52	.264/.322/.419	.155	.277	19	4	13%	8%	110	+2.4	.246/.297/.373	.127	.261	14	5	12%	6%	88	+0.9	.242/.283/.354	.112	.251	13	2	10%	4%	72	-0.1
●Kurt Suzuki 2018 · MLB	34	51→60	52→60	46→45	49	.258/.316/.421	.163	.268	20	2	13%	6%	109	+2.4	.264/.328/.454	.190	.269	24	3	12%	6%	123	+3.3	.262/.330/.439	.177	.268	22	1	12%	6%	116	+1.3
✕Matt Williams 2001 · MLB	35	52→53	50→60	43→40	48	.264/.310/.421	.157	.279	18	5	14%	6%	105	+2.1	.265/.316/.447	.182	.287	22	4	16%	7%	115	+2.8	.262/.319/.453	.191	.283	23	3	17%	7%	113	+1.2
✕Adonis García 2019 · MLB	34	52→56	49→50	48→50	44	.262/.304/.407	.145	.287	17	8	16%	4%	100	+1.7	.219/.276/.340	.121	.262	14	14	22%	6%	71	-0.3	.193/.248/.286	.094	.234	11	16	23%	4%	43	-0.9
✕Pedro Feliz 2010 · MLB	35	52→54	48→60	41→45	50	.256/.301/.399	.143	.267	16	2	12%	6%	96	+1.5	.232/.268/.344	.112	.248	12	3	12%	4%	67	-0.5	.218/.244/.298	.080	.231	8	1	10%	3%	39	-1.8
★Yuli Gurriel 2019 · MLB	35	58→64	49→60	45→50	46	.286/.322/.443	.156	.304	15	5	12%	4%	116	+2.8	.288/.335/.470	.182	.299	20	5	11%	6%	129	+3.7	.292/.350/.474	.182	.302	21	3	11%	7%	133	+3.2
✕Eric Karros 2003 · MLB	35	50→55	51→55	43→40	51	.253/.317/.411	.158	.277	19	5	17%	8%	106	+2.2	.260/.316/.407	.147	.282	17	5	14%	7%	105	+2.1	.263/.317/.413	.150	.279	18	3	13%	7%	102	+0.8
✕Hernando Arredondo 2013 · AAA	36	51→56	50	43→50	42	.259/.288/.408	.149	.285	19	9	17%	4%	93	+1.3	.246/.280/.392	.146	.281	17	5	19%	4%	85	+0.7	.242/.278/.375	.134	.277	16	2	19%	4%	77	+0.1
●Hunter Pence 2018 · MLB	35	53→63	52→60	43→50	50	.269/.328/.432	.164	.309	20	4	20%	8%	116	+2.8	.256/.308/.409	.153	.308	19	8	22%	7%	102	+1.8	.261/.309/.419	.158	.318	20	9	24%	6%	101	+1.1
●Jeff Conine 2001 · MLB	35	54→63	50→55	45→50	54	.271/.331/.426	.155	.285	18	7	13%	8%	115	+2.8	.285/.348/.438	.153	.307	16	9	13%	8%	125	+3.5	.283/.346/.441	.158	.302	17	9	12%	8%	118	+2.9
✕Ronny Paulino 2016 · AAA	35	53→63	46→50	46→40	48	.260/.308/.390	.130	.299	14	4	18%	7%	96	+1.5	.249/.294/.368	.119	.284	14	8	17%	6%	85	+0.7	.243/.287/.336	.093	.274	14	7	16%	5%	72	-0.1
✕Sandy Alomar Jr. 2001 · MLB	35	55	45	44→40	48	.268/.311/.392	.124	.286	13	6	12%	5%	98	+1.6	.260/.297/.383	.123	.273	13	4	10%	5%	90	+1.0	.260/.288/.381	.121	.269	13	1	9%	3%	83	+0.2
✕Manny Rodriguez 2017 · AAA	35	51→61	50→55	48→50	42	.261/.299/.413	.151	.278	19	11	14%	3%	99	+1.7	.245/.289/.374	.129	.274	14	14	16%	5%	85	+0.7	.233/.280/.345	.111	.264	12	10	16%	6%	72	-0.2
✕Carlos Lee 2012 · MLB	36	53→59	52→65	42→50	54	.269/.324/.440	.170	.268	20	4	9%	7%	116	+2.8	.256/.323/.387	.131	.266	13	5	9%	9%	102	+1.9	.253/.324/.353	.100	.265	9	3	8%	9%	84	+0.6
✕Eddy Diaz 2006 · AAA	34	54→57	48→50	44→45	52	.267/.317/.406	.139	.276	16	7	11%	7%	105	+2.1	.251/.302/.371	.120	.268	13	5	12%	7%	89	+1.0	.247/.300/.348	.102	.263	12	0	11%	6%	80	+0.3
●Vinny Castilla 2002 · MLB	35	48→53	52→60	36→40	47	.246/.293/.413	.167	.264	20	3	17%	6%	97	+1.5	.253/.297/.423	.170	.270	20	3	15%	5%	101	+1.8	.264/.321/.464	.200	.282	23	2	16%	7%	115	+2.8
✕Noe Mata 2009 · AAA	35	56→61	46→50	42→50	42	.280/.309/.409	.129	.316	14	9	17%	3%	102	+1.8	.236/.266/.341	.105	.284	11	8	21%	3%	66	-0.6	.200/.226/.271	.071	.252	6	5	23%	2%	26	-1.2
✕Aaron Boone 2008 · MLB	35	51→57	47→60	46→55	50	.252/.324/.385	.133	.284	14	8	17%	7%	103	+1.9	.247/.318/.387	.140	.292	14	6	20%	8%	101	+1.8	.238/.298/.379	.140	.282	14	0	20%	7%	85	+0.3

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)