Nolan Arenado

3B Arizona Diamondbacks

Age 36 R/R 6'2" / 215 lbs MLB HR -11% Svc 13.901 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

MLB40-MANExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	33	MLBSTL	635	.272/.328/.394	16	2	104	2.9
2025	34	MLBSTL	436	.237/.292/.377	12	3	85	0.7
2026	35	MLBARI	599	.255/.332/.475	30	4	124	3.3
2027PROJ	36	MLBARI	328	.247/.316/.427	12	3	106	1.3
2028PROJ	37	MLBARI	223	.234/.302/.398	8	0	94	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 6.9 · Next 2 projected WAR 1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service13.901First FA2028NTC

2027Ext / FA-deal$8M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Bat Spd48

xwOBA40

Barrel%23

Avg EV10

Speed10

Form.262/.330/.497 ▲▲ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .242/.310/.423

CompsKurt Suzuki (age 36) · Torii Hunter (age 37) · Mario Valenzuela (age 36)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 109106vR 95

AVG/OBP/SLG.247 / .316 / .427

PA328

HR12

K%18

BB%8

BABIP267

ISO176

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT

xAVG

400.243

POWER

Barrel%

234.7

Avg EV

1086.0

Bat Spd

4871.1

SPEED

Sprint

1025.1

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%17%▲17% over 107 PA (60d) · proj 18%

BB%8%·8% over 107 PA (60d) · proj 8%

ISO.235▲▲.326 over 95 AB (60d) · proj .181

HR/BB8.0%▲▲11.7% over 77 BBE (60d) · proj 5.5%

BABIP.264▲.324 over 68 BIP (60d) · proj .259

SLASH.262/.330/.497▲▲proj .242/.310/.423

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1160 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

291

869

—

wRC+

▶R

wOBA

298

310

▶R

ISO

129

133

—

BABIP

260

281

▶R

9.6%

15.2%

◀◀L

BB%

4.5%

6.4%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2013

Service 13.901 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

NTC

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$8M	+1.2	$10M	+$2M
Totals		$8M		$10M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2009	18	ROK	Casper Ghosts	—	225	203	61	15	0	2	16	18	2	5	2	300	357	404	761	103	316	8	7	337	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	19	A	Asheville Tourists	—	402	373	115	41	1	12	19	52	1	1	3	308	342	520	862	212	326	13	5	369	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	20	A+	Modesto Nuts	—	583	517	154	32	3	20	47	53	1	2	1	298	358	487	845	190	293	9	8	361	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	20	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	130	121	47	12	0	6	8	14	0	0	1	388	426	636	1.063	248	402	11	6	459	197	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	AA	Tulsa Drillers	—	573	516	147	36	1	12	39	58	7	0	2	285	343	428	772	143	296	10	7	338	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	514	486	130	29	4	10	23	72	1	2	0	267	302	405	707	138	296	14	4	311	86	-9	+0	+17	+2	+11	2.2
2013	22	AAA	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	75	66	24	11	0	3	5	9	0	0	2	364	408	667	1.075	303	368	12	7	439	155	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	467	432	124	34	2	18	25	58	4	2	1	287	332	500	832	213	294	12	5	360	117	+9	+0	+5	+2	+10	2.6
2014	23	AAA	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	20	20	7	2	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	350	350	450	800	100	412	15	0	355	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	665	616	177	43	4	42	34	110	4	2	5	287	329	575	903	287	284	17	5	384	121	+16	-2	+6	+2	+14	3.9
2016	25	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	696	618	182	35	6	41	68	103	2	2	3	294	366	570	936	275	293	15	10	401	135	+29	-1	+15	+2	+15	6.2
2017	26	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	680	606	187	43	7	37	62	106	4	3	2	309	376	586	962	277	320	16	9	412	143	+35	-0	+9	+2	+15	6.2
2018	27	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	673	590	175	38	2	38	73	122	3	2	2	297	377	561	938	264	314	18	11	404	139	+31	-0	+10	+2	+15	5.9
2019	28	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	662	588	185	31	2	41	62	93	4	3	2	315	384	583	967	269	312	14	9	415	145	+35	-0	+17	+2	+14	7.0
2020	29	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	201	182	46	9	0	8	15	20	0	0	0	253	310	434	744	181	241	10	7	323	88	-3	+0	+5	+1	+4	0.7
2021	30	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	653	593	151	34	3	34	50	96	3	2	0	255	316	494	810	239	249	15	8	350	122	+17	+0	+9	+2	+14	4.3
2022	31	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	620	557	163	42	1	30	52	72	7	5	3	293	360	533	894	241	290	12	8	388	150	+37	-0	+12	+2	+13	6.6
2023	32	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	612	560	149	26	2	26	41	101	3	3	3	266	320	459	778	193	279	17	7	339	115	+11	-1	+5	+2	+13	3.2
2024	33	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	635	578	157	23	0	16	44	92	5	2	2	272	328	394	722	123	296	14	7	321	104	+3	-0	+9	+2	+14	2.9
2025	34	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	436	401	95	18	1	12	28	49	3	3	0	237	292	377	668	140	241	11	6	297	85	-8	+1	+3	+2	+9	0.7
2026	35	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	599	533	136	25	1	30	52	120	10	4	0	255	332	475	807	220	275	20	9	354	124	+17	+1	-1	+2	+13	3.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	8113	7340	2057	430	35	383	629	1214	53	35	23	280	341	505	846	225	287	15	8	367	135	+333	-2	+122	+29	+176	67.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2009	18	ROK MLE	Casper Ghosts	—	225	209	51	11	0	2	10	26	2	5	2	244	285	325	610	81	259	12	4	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	19	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	402	383	96	32	1	9	11	73	1	1	3	251	273	410	683	159	275	18	3	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	20	A+ MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	583	533	147	27	2	25	31	73	1	2	1	276	317	475	791	199	261	13	5	336	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	—	573	530	137	31	1	11	25	76	7	0	2	258	301	383	684	125	270	13	4	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	514	487	124	28	3	9	22	72	1	2	0	255	288	380	668	125	296	14	4	295	86	-9	+0	+17	+2	+11	2.2
2013	22	AAA MLE	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	75	68	23	10	0	3	3	12	0	0	2	338	366	618	984	279	330	16	4	398	155	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	467	433	118	33	1	16	24	58	4	2	1	273	317	464	781	192	294	12	5	341	117	+9	+0	+5	+2	+10	2.6
2014	23	AAA MLE	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	20	20	6	2	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	300	300	400	700	100	374	20	0	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	665	629	167	42	3	37	21	110	4	2	5	266	294	518	812	253	284	17	3	346	121	+16	-2	+6	+2	+14	3.9
2016	25	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	696	628	171	34	4	36	58	103	2	2	3	272	336	511	847	239	293	15	8	368	135	+29	-1	+15	+2	+15	6.2
2017	26	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	680	616	177	42	5	33	53	106	4	3	2	287	348	532	880	245	320	16	8	379	143	+35	-0	+9	+2	+15	6.2
2018	27	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	673	600	166	37	1	34	63	122	3	2	2	277	348	512	860	235	314	18	9	374	139	+31	-0	+10	+2	+15	5.9
2019	28	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	662	599	175	30	1	36	51	93	4	3	2	292	352	526	878	234	312	14	8	382	145	+35	-0	+17	+2	+14	7.0
2020	29	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	201	185	44	9	0	7	12	20	0	0	0	238	284	400	684	162	241	10	6	298	88	-3	+0	+5	+1	+4	0.7
2021	30	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	653	601	153	33	3	37	42	96	3	2	0	255	307	504	811	250	249	15	6	348	122	+17	+0	+9	+2	+14	4.3
2022	31	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	620	560	163	40	1	32	49	72	7	5	3	291	356	537	893	246	290	12	8	390	150	+37	-0	+12	+2	+13	6.6
2023	32	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	612	565	150	25	2	28	36	101	3	3	3	265	313	465	778	200	279	17	6	339	115	+11	-1	+5	+2	+13	3.2
2024	33	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	635	581	157	22	0	17	42	92	5	2	2	270	325	396	721	126	296	14	7	322	104	+3	-0	+9	+2	+14	2.9
2025	34	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	436	405	95	17	1	13	24	49	3	3	0	235	282	378	660	143	241	11	6	293	85	-8	+1	+3	+2	+9	0.7
2026	35	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	599	536	135	22	1	32	50	120	10	4	0	252	327	476	803	224	275	20	8	351	124	+17	+1	-1	+2	+13	3.3
2009	18	ROK MLE	Casper Ghosts	—	225	209	51	11	0	2	10	26	2	5	2	244	285	325	610	81	265	12	4	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	18	ROK RAW	Casper Ghosts	—	225	203	61	15	0	2	16	18	2	5	2	300	357	404	761	103	316	8	7	337	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	19	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	402	383	96	32	1	9	11	73	1	1	3	251	273	410	683	159	282	18	3	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	19	A RAW	Asheville Tourists	—	402	373	115	41	1	12	19	52	1	1	3	308	342	520	862	212	326	13	5	369	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	713	655	179	33	3	30	38	89	1	2	2	273	314	470	784	197	270	12	5	336	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	20	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	713	638	201	44	3	26	55	67	1	2	2	315	370	516	886	201	312	9	8	379	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	—	573	530	137	31	1	11	25	76	7	0	2	258	301	383	684	125	278	13	4	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	AA RAW	Tulsa Drillers	—	573	516	147	36	1	12	39	58	7	0	2	285	343	428	772	143	296	10	7	338	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	589	555	146	38	3	11	25	84	1	2	2	263	296	402	698	139	290	14	4	308	95	-4	-0	+17	+2	+13	2.8
2013	22	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	589	552	154	40	4	13	28	81	1	2	2	279	315	437	752	158	305	14	5	328	95	-4	-0	+17	+2	+13	2.8
2014	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	487	453	123	34	1	16	24	62	4	2	1	272	314	457	771	185	282	13	5	339	115	+9	+0	+5	+2	+11	2.6
2014	23	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	487	452	131	36	2	18	25	61	4	2	1	290	333	498	830	208	299	13	5	360	115	+9	+0	+5	+2	+11	2.6
2015	24	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	665	629	167	42	3	37	21	110	4	2	5	266	294	518	812	253	264	17	3	346	121	+16	-2	+6	+2	+14	3.9
2015	24	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	—	665	616	177	43	4	42	34	110	4	2	5	287	329	575	903	287	284	17	5	384	121	+16	-2	+6	+2	+14	3.9
2016	25	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	696	628	171	34	4	36	58	103	2	2	3	272	336	511	847	239	272	15	8	368	135	+29	-1	+15	+2	+15	6.2
2016	25	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	—	696	618	182	35	6	41	68	103	2	2	3	294	366	570	936	275	293	15	10	401	135	+29	-1	+15	+2	+15	6.2
2017	26	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	680	616	177	42	5	33	53	106	4	3	2	287	348	532	880	245	298	16	8	379	143	+35	-0	+9	+2	+15	6.2
2017	26	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	—	680	606	187	43	7	37	62	106	4	3	2	309	376	586	962	277	320	16	9	412	143	+35	-0	+9	+2	+15	6.2
2018	27	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	673	600	166	37	1	34	63	122	3	2	2	277	348	512	860	235	293	18	9	374	139	+31	-0	+10	+2	+15	5.9
2018	27	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	—	673	590	175	38	2	38	73	122	3	2	2	297	377	561	938	264	314	18	11	404	139	+31	-0	+10	+2	+15	5.9
2019	28	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	662	599	175	30	1	36	51	93	4	3	2	292	352	526	878	234	291	14	8	382	145	+35	-0	+17	+2	+14	7.0
2019	28	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	—	662	588	185	31	2	41	62	93	4	3	2	315	384	583	967	269	312	14	9	415	145	+35	-0	+17	+2	+14	7.0
2020	29	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	201	185	44	9	0	7	12	20	0	0	0	238	284	400	684	162	228	10	6	298	88	-3	+0	+5	+1	+4	0.7
2020	29	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	—	201	182	46	9	0	8	15	20	0	0	0	253	310	434	744	181	241	10	7	323	88	-3	+0	+5	+1	+4	0.7
2021	30	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	653	601	153	33	3	37	42	96	3	2	0	255	307	504	811	250	244	15	6	348	122	+17	+0	+9	+2	+14	4.3
2021	30	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	—	653	593	151	34	3	34	50	96	3	2	0	255	316	494	810	239	249	15	8	350	122	+17	+0	+9	+2	+14	4.3
2022	31	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	620	560	163	40	1	32	49	72	7	5	3	291	356	537	893	246	285	12	8	390	150	+37	-0	+12	+2	+13	6.6
2022	31	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	—	620	557	163	42	1	30	52	72	7	5	3	293	360	533	894	241	290	12	8	388	150	+37	-0	+12	+2	+13	6.6
2023	32	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	612	565	150	25	2	28	36	101	3	3	3	265	313	465	778	200	275	17	6	339	115	+11	-1	+5	+2	+13	3.2
2023	32	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	—	612	560	149	26	2	26	41	101	3	3	3	266	320	459	778	193	279	17	7	339	115	+11	-1	+5	+2	+13	3.2
2024	33	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	635	581	157	22	0	17	42	92	5	2	2	270	325	396	721	126	292	14	7	322	104	+3	-0	+9	+2	+14	2.9
2024	33	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	—	635	578	157	23	0	16	44	92	5	2	2	272	328	394	722	123	296	14	7	321	104	+3	-0	+9	+2	+14	2.9
2025	34	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	436	405	95	17	1	13	24	49	3	3	0	235	282	378	660	143	236	11	6	293	85	-8	+1	+3	+2	+9	0.7
2025	34	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	—	436	401	95	18	1	12	28	49	3	3	0	237	292	377	668	140	241	11	6	297	85	-8	+1	+3	+2	+9	0.7
2026	35	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	599	536	135	22	1	32	50	120	10	4	0	252	327	476	803	224	266	20	8	351	124	+17	+1	-1	+2	+13	3.3
2026	35	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	599	533	136	25	1	30	52	120	10	4	0	255	332	475	807	220	275	20	9	354	124	+17	+1	-1	+2	+13	3.3
2009	18	ROK MLE	Casper Ghosts	—	225	211	51	11	0	2	10	26	2	5	2	242	285	322	607	81	259	12	4	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	19	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	402	387	96	32	1	9	11	73	1	1	3	248	273	406	679	158	275	18	3	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	713	668	179	33	3	30	38	89	1	2	2	268	314	461	775	193	261	12	5	336	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	—	573	536	137	31	1	11	25	76	7	0	2	256	301	379	679	123	270	13	4	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	589	558	146	38	3	11	25	84	1	2	2	262	296	400	696	138	300	14	4	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	487	456	123	34	1	16	24	62	4	2	1	270	314	454	768	184	297	13	5	339	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	665	635	167	42	3	37	21	110	4	2	5	263	294	513	807	250	284	17	3	346	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	696	631	171	34	4	36	58	103	2	2	3	271	336	509	844	238	293	15	8	368	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	680	618	177	42	5	33	53	106	4	3	2	286	348	531	878	244	320	16	8	379	143	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	673	602	166	37	1	34	63	122	3	2	2	276	348	510	858	234	314	18	9	374	139	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	662	602	175	30	1	36	51	93	4	3	2	291	352	523	875	233	312	14	8	382	145	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	29	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	201	187	44	9	0	7	12	20	0	0	0	235	284	396	680	160	241	10	6	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	30	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	653	603	153	33	3	37	42	96	3	2	0	254	307	502	809	249	249	15	6	348	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	620	559	163	40	1	32	49	72	7	5	3	292	356	538	894	247	290	12	8	390	150	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	32	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	612	568	150	25	2	28	36	101	3	3	3	264	313	463	776	199	279	17	6	339	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	33	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	635	583	157	22	0	17	42	92	5	2	2	269	325	395	719	125	296	14	7	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	436	406	95	17	1	13	24	49	3	3	0	234	282	377	659	143	241	11	6	293	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	35	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	599	534	135	22	1	32	50	120	10	4	0	253	327	478	805	225	275	20	8	351	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	33	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	635	583	157	22	0	17	42	92	5	2	2	269	325	395	719	125	296	14	7	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	436	406	95	17	1	13	24	49	3	3	0	234	282	377	659	143	241	11	6	293	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	35	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	599	534	135	22	1	32	50	120	10	4	0	253	327	478	805	225	275	20	8	351	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	36	MLB MLE	ARI	100%	425	383	93	17	1	17	33	77	6	3	1	242	312	423	735	181	259	18	8	325	106	+3	+0	+3	+2	+9	1.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	36	MLB CTX	ARI	100%	328	295	72	14	1	12	26	59	4	3	1	247	316	427	743	180	267	18	8	328	106	+2	+0	+2	+1	+7	1.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	37	MLB MLE	ARI	100%	223	201	46	8	0	8	17	42	3	0	0	230	298	395	693	165	249	19	8	308	94	-1	+0	-6	+1	+5	-0.2
2028	37	MLB CTX	ARI	100%	223	201	48	9	1	8	17	42	3	0	0	234	302	398	699	164	256	19	8	311	94	-1	+0	-6	+1	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	8336	7541	2105	439	36	391	646	1256	56	35	23	279	340	502	843	223	287	15	8	366	117	+332	-2	+116	+30	+181	67.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	588	164	34	3	30	50	98	4	3	2	279	339	500	839	221	287	15	8	366	117	+26	-0	+9	+2	+14	5.2
Career	—	MLE		—	10672	9786	2603	553	32	442	677	1595	71	46	35	266	318	465	783	199	274	15	6	341	117	+334	-2	+118	+31	+188	68.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	596	159	34	2	27	41	97	4	3	2	267	318	466	785	200	275	15	6	341	117	+25	-0	+9	+2	+14	5.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2014 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 20 PAwOBA .345 → .289 (−55)K% 15.0% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.00%	÷0.934	×1.290	—	—	20.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	0.00%	÷1.055	×0.710	—	×1.050	0.00%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	29.41%	÷1.005	×0.900	—	×1.050	27.66%
Doubles /BIP	11.76%	÷1.028	×0.810	—	×1.050	9.74%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.810	—	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.964	×0.780	—	×1.050	0.00%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 101, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 87, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .345 → .289; ISO .100 → .077; BABIP .412 → .374. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 75 PAwOBA .440 → .398 (−42)K% 12.0% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.00%	÷0.941	×1.290	—	—	16.46%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.33%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.050	3.98%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	17.54%	÷1.031	×0.900	×1.005	×1.050	16.16%
Doubles /BIP	19.30%	÷0.967	×0.810	×1.005	×1.050	17.06%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.071	×0.810	×1.005	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.26%	÷1.022	×0.780	—	×1.050	4.22%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 106, 2B 93, 3B 114, K 88, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.

Result: wOBA .440 → .398; ISO .303 → .269; BABIP .368 → .330. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AATulsa Drillers · 573 PAwOBA .332 → .298 (−34)K% 10.1% → 13.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.12%	÷0.939	×1.220	—	—	13.16%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.93%	÷1.009	×0.700	—	×1.050	4.32%
HBP% /PA	1.22%	—	×0.870	—	×1.050	1.12%
Singles /BIP	21.40%	÷1.005	×0.920	×0.976	×1.050	20.07%
Doubles /BIP	7.86%	÷1.018	×0.840	×0.976	×1.050	6.65%
Triples /BIP	0.22%	÷0.953	×0.940	×0.976	×1.050	0.22%
Home runs /BIP	2.62%	÷0.929	×0.800	—	×1.050	2.37%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 101, 2B 104, 3B 91, K 88, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.

Result: wOBA .332 → .298; ISO .143 → .128; BABIP .296 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 A+Modesto Nuts · 583 PAwOBA .358 → .336 (−22)K% 9.1% → 12.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	9.09%	÷0.975	×1.340	—	—	12.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.55%	÷1.063	×0.710	—	×1.042	5.25%
HBP% /PA	0.17%	—	×0.790	—	×1.042	0.14%
Singles /BIP	21.34%	÷1.033	×0.910	×0.989	×1.042	19.38%
Doubles /BIP	6.90%	÷1.020	×0.820	×0.989	×1.042	5.71%
Triples /BIP	0.65%	÷1.150	×0.760	×0.989	×1.042	0.44%
Home runs /BIP	4.31%	÷0.800	×0.920	—	×1.042	5.17%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 60, 1B 107, 2B 104, 3B 130, K 95, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.

Result: wOBA .358 → .336; ISO .190 → .205; BABIP .293 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 AAsheville Tourists · 402 PAwOBA .365 → .292 (−72)K% 12.9% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.94%	÷0.959	×1.340	—	—	18.08%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.73%	÷1.179	×0.660	—	×1.045	2.76%
HBP% /PA	0.25%	—	×0.770	—	×1.045	0.20%
Singles /BIP	19.00%	÷1.044	×0.920	×0.967	×1.045	16.92%
Doubles /BIP	12.77%	÷1.054	×0.820	×0.967	×1.045	10.04%
Triples /BIP	0.31%	÷0.900	×0.940	×0.967	×1.045	0.33%
Home runs /BIP	3.74%	÷1.089	×0.820	—	×1.045	2.94%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 109, 2B 111, 3B 80, K 92, BB 136 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.

Result: wOBA .365 → .292; ISO .212 → .166; BABIP .326 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2009 ROKCasper Ghosts · 225 PAwOBA .334 → .265 (−69)K% 8.0% → 11.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	8.00%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	11.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.11%	÷1.000	×0.610	—	×1.022	4.44%
HBP% /PA	0.89%	—	×0.720	—	×1.022	0.65%
Singles /BIP	23.78%	÷1.000	×0.820	×1.014	×1.022	20.23%
Doubles /BIP	8.11%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.014	×1.022	6.06%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.014	×1.022	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.08%	÷1.000	×0.750	—	×1.022	0.83%

Factors used: league row PIO. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.

Result: wOBA .334 → .265; ISO .103 → .079; BABIP .316 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ryne Sandberg'81-'97 * career totals — 15 seasons, 9,282 PA	14.0	9,282	282	344	280*	342*	480*	+33	+154	70.9	60.9
/162	664	20	25	+2.4	+11.0	5.1	pk7: 51
#2Chase Utleylast yr '18 AS×6SS×4 career totals — 16 seasons, 7,863 PA	11.8	7,863	259	154	275	358	465	+28	+107	67.9	60.3
/162	664	22	13	+2.4	+9.1	5.7	pk7: 53
#3Scott Rolen'96-'12 * career totals — 17 seasons, 8,518 PA	12.8	8,518	316	118	271*	352*	479*	+30	+75	64.8	53.9
/162	664	25	9	+2.4	+5.8	5.1	pk7: 43
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 16 projected seasons	13.0	8,664	404	38	278	335	500	+26	+149	59.9	51.9
/162	664	31	3	+2.0	+11.4	4.6	pk7: 44
#4Evan Longorialast yr '23 career totals — 16 seasons, 8,206 PA	12.4	8,206	342	58	264	333	471	+29	+110	61.2	51.8
/162	664	28	5	+2.4	+8.9	5.0	pk7: 42
#5Buddy Bell'72-'89 * career totals — 18 seasons, 10,009 PA	15.1	10,009	201	55	277*	341*	437*	+28	+138	60.4	50.1
/162	664	13	4	+1.9	+9.1	4.0	pk7: 40
#6Josh Donaldsonlast yr '23 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,822 PA	8.8	5,822	278	40	262	359	491	+21	+53	51.1	48.3
/162	664	32	5	+2.4	+6.0	5.8	pk7: 46

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nolan Arenado (OGILVIE)	36	—	—	—	—	240/310/419	179	259	13	3	18%	8%	106	+1.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Kurt Suzuki 2020 · MLB	36	50→60	58→60	40→45	50	265/327/467	202	261	27	2	12%	6%	123	+3.0	241/313/392	151	262	18	4	16%	7%	100	+1.3	217/297/333	116	245	13	1	17%	7%	82	+0.0
●Torii Hunter 2012 · MLB	37	53→63	53→65	40→55	53	272/340/448	176	303	21	9	18%	9%	122	+3.0	293/341/451	158	343	18	6	19%	6%	124	+3.1	300/342/456	155	349	17	5	18%	5%	126	+3.2
✕Mario Valenzuela 2013 · AAA	36	52→57	52→55	40	45	264/314/427	163	299	21	4	20%	6%	108	+1.9	238/285/352	114	308	13	5	26%	6%	80	-0.2	225/269/314	89	292	11	2	26%	5%	62	-0.5
✕Mike Lowell 2010 · MLB	36	56→64	53→60	42→40	51	285/336/464	180	297	21	4	13%	7%	124	+3.1	256/314/426	170	274	20	5	15%	8%	108	+1.9	242/305/406	164	255	19	0	14%	8%	99	+0.6
✕José Hernández 2005 · MLB	36	51→60	53→55	44→45	45	256/318/429	173	335	22	5	29%	8%	110	+2.1	237/293/376	139	296	17	5	25%	7%	88	+0.5	230/285/340	110	295	11	6	25%	6%	75	-0.3
●Raul Ibanez 2008 · MLB	36	55→60	55→60	43→45	52	282/339/473	192	303	22	3	16%	8%	128	+3.3	277/336/479	202	306	23	3	17%	8%	128	+3.3	273/336/474	201	302	23	3	18%	8%	127	+3.5
✕Stephen Vogt 2020 · MLB	35	47→57	56→60	47→40	49	246/306/449	203	282	22	6	22%	8%	110	+2.1	216/287/381	165	257	19	5	23%	9%	88	+0.4	179/259/328	149	204	20	1	24%	9%	66	-0.4
✕Mark DeRosa 2011 · MLB	36	49→59	52→55	42→40	53	250/327/418	168	282	20	5	19%	9%	111	+2.1	234/311/343	109	283	11	6	20%	9%	88	+0.4	228/313/326	97	280	9	2	20%	10%	85	+0.1
✕Eric Karros 2004 · MLB	36	53→55	49→55	44→40	51	267/322/414	147	288	17	4	14%	7%	108	+1.9	246/302/393	147	270	16	7	15%	7%	96	+1.0	191/234/305	114	207	11	5	14%	5%	50	-0.4
✕Matt Williams 2002 · MLB	36	52→53	53→60	43→40	46	268/308/443	175	286	20	3	15%	5%	109	+2.0	256/316/439	183	279	22	6	17%	8%	112	+2.2	249/320/440	190	266	24	5	17%	9%	114	+0.8
✕Mike Bordick 2001 · MLB	36	55→56	51→50	44→50	51	275/333/433	158	301	19	9	16%	8%	116	+2.5	254/318/396	142	283	15	11	15%	8%	102	+1.5	247/316/373	126	279	11	11	15%	8%	97	+0.6
✕Pedro Castellano 2006 · AAA	36	51→61	49→50	47→45	53	256/321/398	142	272	18	4	14%	8%	104	+1.6	256/311/392	136	281	15	3	14%	7%	99	+1.2	265/317/395	131	292	13	2	14%	6%	100	+1.0
●Carlos Lee 2011 · MLB	35	52→58	55→65	42→50	51	269/313/454	185	260	24	5	9%	6%	114	+2.4	264/321/412	148	270	16	4	9%	8%	107	+1.8	266/329/403	137	274	13	3	9%	8%	108	+2.0
✕A.J. Pierzynski 2014 · MLB	37	52→62	52→55	44→40	43	268/301/432	164	279	21	2	14%	3%	105	+1.7	261/296/386	125	281	14	2	13%	4%	91	+0.7	258/292/361	104	279	10	1	11%	3%	85	+0.1
✕Brian Jordan 2003 · MLB	36	55→56	54→55	45	47	280/327/463	184	301	22	5	16%	6%	122	+2.9	263/317/408	145	292	16	5	15%	7%	105	+1.7	256/311/372	117	287	12	4	15%	6%	96	+0.4
✕Marquis Grissom 2005 · MLB	38	55→59	53→60	49→50	46	281/315/455	174	296	21	7	14%	5%	115	+2.4	248/293/391	143	269	17	7	15%	6%	92	+0.7	202/236/279	78	219	10	4	14%	4%	44	-0.7
✕Marlon Byrd 2014 · MLB	36	53→63	53→60	38→50	42	272/317/451	180	321	21	4	23%	5%	115	+2.4	260/304/451	191	327	24	4	27%	5%	110	+2.1	254/298/443	189	320	24	2	28%	5%	107	+1.4
✕Jhonny Peralta 2017 · MLB	35	52→62	50→55	38→40	50	263/320/418	155	294	18	3	18%	7%	108	+1.9	239/293/372	133	285	15	6	21%	7%	87	+0.4	196/230/249	54	251	7	0	25%	4%	34	-0.6
✕Rod Barajas 2012 · MLB	36	43→47	56→60	46→30	43	232/274/418	186	243	26	2	18%	4%	92	+0.7	225/287/386	161	250	21	4	20%	7%	89	+0.5	202/270/342	140	220	20	0	19%	7%	74	-0.3
●Casey Blake 2009 · MLB	35	53→54	53→60	45	49	267/330/445	177	306	20	5	20%	7%	118	+2.7	259/330/425	166	312	18	3	22%	9%	114	+2.3	254/331/412	158	312	16	2	23%	9%	112	+1.7

Nolan Arenado

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps