Esmerlyn Valdez — OGILVIE

Esmerlyn ValdezOF Indianapolis Indians

Age 22 R/R 6'2" / 234 lbs MLB Svc 0.000 · Ctrl thru 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION342 act + 228 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†108

AVG/OBP/SLG.224 / .310 / .443

PA228

HR11

K%31

BB%10

BABIP281

ISO219

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 43 / POW 58

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2026

CONTACT43

xwOBA

900.374

POWER58

Barrel%

9029.8

Avg EV

9092.1

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED40

Sprint

6628.1

DEFENSE43

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.3M	+1.1	$9M	+$9M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.1	$16M	+$15M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.4	$16M	+$16M
2029	Arb-1	$6M	+2.5	$16M	+$12M
2030	Arb-2	$10M	+2.5	$15M	+$9M
2031	Arb-3	$14M	+2.5	$14M	+$5M
Totals		$31M		$85M	+$65M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL PIT Gold	—	153	134	26	6	0	5	11	54	6	3	1	194	285	351	636	157	276	35	7	262	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK	DSL PIT Gold	—	153	129	32	8	0	5	16	39	6	3	1	248	358	426	784	178	314	25	10	349	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	FCL Pirates	—	124	106	20	5	0	3	11	37	5	0	1	189	295	321	616	132	250	30	9	263	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	FCL Pirates	—	124	99	23	7	0	3	18	29	5	0	1	232	377	394	771	162	290	23	15	349	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK	2 teams	—	182	167	32	6	1	3	11	71	2	3	2	192	250	293	543	102	305	39	6	244	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK	2 teams	—	182	161	48	11	2	4	17	46	2	3	2	298	372	466	838	168	389	25	9	368	140	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A	Bradenton Marauders	—	435	373	55	10	1	14	44	199	13	4	1	147	260	292	553	145	248	46	10	249	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A	Bradenton Marauders	—	435	358	81	17	1	22	59	133	13	4	1	226	356	464	820	237	284	31	14	361	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+	3 teams	—	609	547	123	21	2	23	43	208	13	3	3	225	297	397	694	172	311	34	7	298	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+	3 teams	—	609	515	152	28	2	34	75	142	13	3	3	295	398	555	953	260	342	23	12	413	174	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	22	AAA	PIT	—	342	299	73	17	1	21	38	99	2	0	2	244	333	518	852	274	286	29	11	365	138	+15	-1	+0	-2	+10	2.2
YTD	22	AAA	PIT	—	342	286	78	19	1	23	51	89	2	0	2	273	386	587	974	315	311	26	15	417	177	+30	-1	+0	-2	+10	3.7
ROS	22	AAA	PIT	100%	228	201	45	9	1	11	22	70	3	1	1	224	310	443	753	219	274	31	10	326	108	+2	-0	-1	-1	+6	0.6
ROS	22	MLB	PIT	100%	228	201	45	9	1	11	22	70	3	1	1	224	310	443	753	219	272	31	10	316	100	+0	-0	-1	-1	+6	0.4
FULL	22	AAA	PIT	—	570	500	118	26	2	32	60	169	5	1	3	236	324	488	812	252	284	30	11	346	123	+15	-1	-1	-3	+16	2.6
TOT	22	AAA	PIT	—	570	500	118	26	2	32	60	169	5	1	3	236	324	488	812	252	284	30	11	350	126	+17	-1	-1	-3	+16	2.8
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	PIT	65%	635	561	127	25	2	31	61	193	8	2	2	226	311	444	755	217	280	30	10	331	111	+8	-0	-2	-4	+18	2.1
2028	24	MLB	PIT	65%	647	572	131	26	2	31	62	191	8	2	2	229	313	444	757	215	282	30	10	334	114	+10	-0	-2	-4	+18	2.3
2029	25	MLB	PIT	65%	648	572	132	26	2	31	63	188	8	2	2	231	316	446	762	215	282	29	10	336	115	+11	-0	-2	-4	+18	2.4
2030	26	MLB	PIT	65%	648	572	133	26	2	31	63	186	8	2	2	233	317	448	765	215	283	29	10	337	116	+12	-0	-2	-4	+18	2.5
2031	27	MLB	PIT	65%	643	567	132	26	2	31	63	185	8	2	2	233	318	450	768	217	282	29	10	337	116	+12	-0	-2	-4	+18	2.4
2032	28	MLB	PIT	65%	635	559	129	25	2	31	63	184	8	2	2	231	317	449	766	218	282	29	10	336	115	+11	-0	-2	-4	+18	2.3
2033	29	MLB	PIT	65%	623	549	127	25	2	30	62	182	7	2	2	231	317	448	765	217	281	29	10	334	114	+10	-0	-3	-4	+18	2.1
2034	30	MLB	PIT	65%	611	538	123	24	2	29	61	180	7	2	2	229	315	442	758	214	279	29	10	331	112	+8	-0	-4	-4	+17	1.8
2035	31	MLB	PIT	65%	596	525	118	23	1	28	59	177	7	2	1	225	311	432	744	208	277	30	10	327	109	+6	+0	-4	-4	+17	1.5
2036	32	MLB	PIT	65%	577	508	111	21	1	26	57	174	7	1	1	219	306	417	723	199	273	30	10	322	104	+3	-0	-5	-3	+16	1.1
2037	33	MLB	PIT	65%	547	482	103	19	1	24	54	168	6	1	1	214	301	407	707	193	268	31	10	314	99	-1	-0	-6	-3	+15	0.6
2027	23	MLB	PIT	65%	413	365	82	16	1	20	40	125	5	2	1	225	310	438	748	214	278	30	10	321	104	+2	+0	-1	-2	+12	1.0
2028	24	MLB	PIT	65%	421	373	85	17	1	20	40	124	5	2	1	228	311	440	751	212	280	29	10	324	106	+3	+0	-1	-3	+12	1.1
2029	25	MLB	PIT	65%	421	372	85	17	1	20	41	122	5	2	1	228	313	441	754	212	281	29	10	326	108	+4	+0	-1	-3	+12	1.2
2030	26	MLB	PIT	65%	421	372	86	17	1	20	41	121	5	2	1	231	316	444	759	212	281	29	10	327	108	+4	+0	-1	-3	+12	1.2
2031	27	MLB	PIT	65%	418	369	85	17	1	20	41	120	5	2	1	230	316	444	760	214	281	29	10	327	108	+4	+0	-1	-3	+12	1.2
2032	28	MLB	PIT	65%	413	364	83	16	1	20	41	120	5	1	1	228	315	442	757	214	280	29	10	326	108	+4	-0	-2	-2	+12	1.1
2033	29	MLB	PIT	65%	405	357	81	16	1	19	40	118	5	1	1	227	313	437	750	210	279	29	10	324	106	+3	-0	-2	-2	+11	1.0
2034	30	MLB	PIT	65%	397	349	79	15	1	19	40	117	5	1	1	226	315	438	753	212	278	29	10	321	104	+2	-0	-2	-2	+11	0.8
2035	31	MLB	PIT	65%	387	340	76	15	1	18	39	115	5	1	1	224	312	432	745	209	275	30	10	318	101	+1	-0	-3	-2	+11	0.6
2036	32	MLB	PIT	65%	375	331	73	14	1	17	37	113	4	1	1	221	306	423	729	202	271	30	10	312	97	-1	-0	-3	-2	+11	0.4
2037	33	MLB	PIT	65%	356	314	67	12	1	16	35	109	4	1	1	213	300	411	711	197	267	31	10	305	92	-3	-0	-4	-2	+10	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4655	4107	927	181	12	220	457	1374	56	17	12	226	312	436	748	211	279	30	10	321	104	+20	-1	-22	-28	+132	10.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	573	130	25	2	31	64	192	8	2	2	227	313	440	753	213	280	30	10	321	104	+3	-0	-3	-4	+18	1.4
Career	—			—	8541	7533	1667	323	24	382	810	2647	124	34	28	221	307	423	730	201	282	31	9	320	103	+33	-4	-33	-51	+242	19.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	573	127	25	2	29	62	201	9	3	2	222	307	424	732	202	282	31	10	320	103	+3	-0	-3	-4	+18	1.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL PIT Gold	—	153	129	32	8	0	5	16	39	6	3	1	248	358	426	784	178	314	25	10	349	125	+4	+0	—	—	+4	0.9
2022	18	ROK	FCL Pirates	—	124	99	23	7	0	3	18	29	5	0	1	232	377	394	771	162	290	23	15	349	125	+3	-0	—	—	+4	0.7
2023	19	A	Bradenton Marauders	—	23	20	5	1	1	0	2	9	1	0	0	250	348	400	748	150	455	39	9	337	116	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2023	19	ROK	FCL Pirates	—	159	141	43	10	1	4	15	37	1	3	2	305	376	475	851	170	382	23	9	373	144	+8	-0	—	—	+5	1.2
2024	20	A	Bradenton Marauders	—	435	358	81	17	1	22	59	133	13	4	1	226	356	464	820	237	284	31	14	361	134	+17	+0	—	—	+12	3.0
2025	21	AA	Altoona Curve	—	215	181	47	7	1	6	25	53	6	1	2	260	368	409	777	149	328	25	12	348	124	+6	-1	—	—	+6	1.2
2025	21	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	314	277	84	18	1	20	31	77	6	2	0	303	385	592	977	289	356	25	10	424	183	+29	+0	—	—	+9	3.9
2025	21	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	80	57	21	3	0	8	19	12	1	0	1	368	532	842	1.375	474	325	15	24	544	275	+16	-0	—	—	+2	1.8

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jay Brucelast yr '20 career totals — 13 seasons, 6,603 PA	13	6,603	318	65	245	314	469	-71	-54	19.6	19.5
#1Jay Brucelast yr '20 career totals — 13 seasons, 6,603 PA	/162	664	32	7	245	314	469	-7.1	-5.4	2.0	pk7: 19
#2Colby Rasmuslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 4,070 PA	9	4,070	165	35	242	311	438	-0	+8	16.7	16.2
	/162	664	27	6	242	311	438	-0.0	+1.3	2.7	pk7: 16
#3Jeromy Burnitzlast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 4,012 PA	7	4,012	192	32	246	330	464	-34	-24	15.5	15.5
	/162	664	32	5	246	330	464	-5.6	-4.0	2.6	pk7: 15
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	9	4,812	231	16	229	310	444	-29	-25	16.6	13.9
	/162	664	32	2	229	310	444	-4.0	-3.4	2.3	pk7: 11
#4Khris Davislast yr '21 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,804 PA	9	3,804	221	18	242	314	491	-40	-39	13.3	13.4
	/162	664	39	3	242	314	491	-7.0	-6.9	2.3	pk7: 13
#5Tony Batistalast yr '07 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,601 PA	7	3,601	162	33	244	291	445	-9	-1	10.4	10.4
	/162	664	30	6	244	291	445	-1.6	-0.2	1.9	pk7: 10
#6Pedro Álvarezlast yr '18 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,287 PA	8	3,287	161	15	235	309	447	+1	-40	10.0	10.2
	/162	664	33	3	235	309	447	+0.2	-8.0	2.0	pk7: 10

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Esmerlyn Valdez (OGILVIE)	22	43	58	40	55	236/324/488	252	284	32	1	30%	11%	126	+2.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Spencer Torkelson 2022 · AAA	22	42→46	60	45→40	50	229/316/447	219	275	27	6	28%	10%	116	+2.8	224/304/409	185	278	23	3	27%	10%	101	+1.8	236/320/456	220	284	29	2	27%	10%	116	+3.1
●Mark Vientos 2022 · AAA	22	40→49	58→60	38→30	36	221/267/417	196	296	28	3	35%	5%	88	+0.9	242/298/439	197	329	27	2	33%	7%	106	+2.2	245/305/447	202	325	28	0	32%	7%	109	+2.0
●Andy Pages 2023 · AA	22	39→49	57→60	45→50	44	212/294/409	197	278	26	6	33%	8%	97	+1.5	245/312/431	186	310	22	9	27%	7%	110	+2.4	270/324/464	194	313	25	10	22%	6%	121	+2.8
●Chris Carter 2009 · A	22	38→48	58→65	47→45	44	214/284/418	204	274	27	3	32%	8%	95	+1.4	235/307/438	203	301	26	6	30%	8%	109	+2.4	213/311/464	252	256	36	3	32%	11%	114	+2.5
✕Justin Foscue 2022 · AA	23	44→48	61→55	43→50	40	234/305/462	228	311	30	5	34%	7%	115	+2.8	231/310/402	171	265	20	7	21%	8%	102	+1.8	231/312/415	184	255	22	6	19%	9%	102	+1.0
●Wily Mo Peña 2005 · MLB	23	46→54	63→65	47→40	42	253/311/481	229	306	34	9	30%	6%	123	+3.3	262/318/471	209	345	28	5	31%	7%	123	+3.3	263/321/462	199	352	26	2	31%	6%	119	+1.8
●MJ Melendez 2022 · AAA	23	39→49	65→60	40→50	46	226/295/469	243	272	35	5	32%	9%	113	+2.6	227/308/420	193	280	23	6	26%	10%	105	+2.1	220/304/400	180	274	20	5	26%	10%	95	+1.3
●Matt LaPorta 2008 · A	23	44→49	61→55	44→30	37	239/291/459	220	301	30	5	32%	5%	109	+2.4	242/312/436	194	274	24	3	21%	7%	111	+2.5	240/316/425	185	266	23	2	19%	8%	107	+1.9
●Franmil Reyes 2019 · MLB	24	47→51	57→65	41→45	43	249/304/442	193	313	27	3	29%	7%	110	+2.4	254/319/482	228	316	33	3	29%	9%	126	+3.5	252/322/498	246	306	37	2	30%	9%	128	+2.5
★Mark Reynolds 2007 · AA	23	44→54	58→65	43→50	41	234/291/435	201	299	27	3	31%	7%	102	+1.9	253/326/472	219	340	28	8	32%	9%	126	+3.5	255/337/492	237	341	31	12	32%	10%	131	+4.0
●Adam Duvall 2012 · A	23	44	59→70	44→45	45	240/306/460	220	280	27	4	25%	7%	115	+2.8	223/274/420	197	260	26	4	25%	6%	92	+1.2	230/290/515	285	247	44	3	29%	6%	121	+2.4
●Tyler Soderstrom 2023 · AAA	21	44→54	58→60	44→40	37	236/282/437	201	313	27	3	33%	5%	99	+1.7	228/287/417	189	288	25	4	30%	7%	96	+1.5	257/339/469	212	298	26	4	22%	10%	126	+2.6
✕Oswaldo Arcia 2014 · MLB	23	49→51	56→60	42→45	42	250/306/446	196	324	24	4	30%	7%	111	+2.5	228/287/413	185	293	24	3	30%	6%	95	+1.4	215/292/414	198	292	26	3	34%	8%	95	+0.7
★Austin Riley 2020 · MLB	23	43→53	60→65	40	37	232/283/447	214	305	30	2	34%	6%	102	+1.9	264/326/486	222	325	30	2	27%	7%	131	+3.9	282/354/518	236	335	31	1	25%	8%	146	+5.6
✕Tyler Locklear 2023 · A	22	45→48	58→50	48→50	37	240/298/437	197	306	27	6	31%	5%	106	+2.2	231/312/394	163	303	19	12	29%	8%	101	+1.8	227/311/381	154	303	17	14	29%	8%	94	+1.1
●Eloy Jiménez 2020 · MLB	23	49→56	58→65	42→40	42	259/302/461	202	301	28	2	25%	6%	114	+2.7	264/312/464	200	315	28	2	25%	6%	118	+3.0	268/322/458	191	318	27	0	24%	7%	119	+1.5
●C.J. Cron 2012 · A	22	42→52	55→60	48→40	37	227/276/405	178	291	24	4	31%	5%	89	+0.9	253/286/452	199	282	27	4	21%	3%	105	+2.1	246/324/466	219	279	29	1	23%	8%	120	+2.8
★Chris Davis 2008 · AA	22	43→53	61→70	43→40	34	234/274/455	221	317	31	4	36%	5%	101	+1.8	253/299/460	207	334	27	5	31%	6%	112	+2.6	238/337/508	269	291	38	3	31%	12%	131	+4.0
✕Juan Yepez 2022 · AAA	24	42→48	61→60	39→45	45	234/298/451	217	268	30	4	26%	7%	110	+2.4	231/286/410	179	269	23	3	24%	6%	93	+1.3	228/285/388	159	265	20	3	22%	7%	84	+0.5
✕Kala Ka'aihue 2007 · A	22	43→47	56→55	47→30	46	228/304/419	192	302	24	3	32%	9%	104	+2.0	208/294/368	160	303	19	3	35%	10%	86	+0.8	186/281/333	147	274	18	1	36%	10%	70	-0.2