Esmerlyn Valdez — OGILVIE

Esmerlyn ValdezRF Pittsburgh Pirates

Age 22 R/R 6'2" / 234 lbs MLB HR -15%K -5% Svc 0.000 · Ctrl thru 2031 ILInjured 10-Day (D10)

2026 ROS PROJECTION524 act + 1 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†110

AVG/OBP/SLG—

PA1

HR0

K%31

BB%9

BABIP274

ISO180

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$24M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · ContractCON 43 / POW 58

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2026

CONTACT43

xAVG

100.200

POWER58

Barrel%

9019.9

Avg EV

9091.9

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED40

Sprint

6628.1

DEFENSE43

scouting grade only

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%38%▼▼44% over 78 PA (30d) · proj 31%

BB%13%▲▲17% over 132 PA (45d) · proj 9%

ISO.188·.197 over 147 AB (60d) · proj .180

HR/BB7.7%▲8.9% over 79 BBE (60d) · proj 6.8%

BABIP.272·.278 over 72 BIP (60d) · proj .271

SLASH.185/.302/.373·proj .211/.293/.391

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.6M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$3M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$8M	+$8M
2029	Arb-1	$5M	+1.3	$8M	+$5M
2030	Arb-2	$8M	+1.4	$8M	+$3M
2031	Arb-3	$13M	+1.4	$8M	+$0.2M
Totals		$27M		$36M	+$19M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	17	ROK	DSL PIT Gold	—	153	129	32	8	0	5	16	39	6	3	1	248	358	426	784	178	314	25	10	349	123	+4	+0	—	—	+3	0.8
2022	18	ROK	FCL Pirates	—	124	99	23	7	0	3	18	29	5	0	1	232	377	394	771	162	290	23	15	349	122	+3	-0	—	—	+3	0.6
2023	19	A	Bradenton Marauders	—	23	20	5	1	1	0	2	9	1	0	0	250	348	400	748	150	455	39	9	337	114	+0	+0	—	—	+0	0.1
2023	19	ROK	FCL Pirates	—	159	141	43	10	1	4	15	37	1	3	2	305	376	475	851	170	382	23	9	373	139	+7	-0	—	—	+3	1.1
2024	20	A	Bradenton Marauders	—	435	358	81	17	1	22	59	133	13	4	1	226	356	464	820	237	284	31	14	361	130	+16	+0	—	—	+9	2.6
2025	21	AA	Altoona Curve	—	215	181	47	7	1	6	25	53	6	1	2	260	368	409	777	149	328	25	12	348	122	+6	-1	—	—	+5	1.0
2025	21	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	314	277	84	18	1	20	31	77	6	2	0	303	385	592	977	289	356	25	10	424	173	+27	+0	—	—	+7	3.5
2025	21	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	80	57	21	3	0	8	19	12	1	0	1	368	532	842	1.375	474	325	15	24	544	254	+15	-0	—	—	+2	1.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL PIT Gold	—	153	135	23	5	0	4	10	55	6	3	1	170	258	296	555	126	246	36	7	247	53	-8	+0	—	—	+3	-0.5
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	—	124	106	18	5	0	2	11	39	5	0	1	170	279	274	552	104	234	31	9	258	61	-6	-0	—	—	+3	-0.4
2023	19	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	—	23	20	4	1	1	0	2	12	1	0	0	200	304	350	654	150	418	52	9	234	45	-2	+0	—	—	+0	-0.1
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	—	159	147	30	6	1	3	9	56	1	3	2	204	255	320	575	116	287	35	6	247	53	-9	-0	—	—	+3	-0.6
2024	20	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	—	435	373	57	11	1	15	44	194	13	4	1	153	265	308	573	155	242	45	10	259	61	-20	+0	—	—	+9	-1.0
2025	21	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	215	189	41	6	1	5	17	68	6	1	2	217	302	339	641	122	287	32	8	278	74	-7	-1	—	—	+5	-0.3
2025	21	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	314	287	66	13	1	14	21	104	6	2	0	230	296	429	725	199	307	33	7	312	97	-1	+0	—	—	+7	0.6
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL PIT Gold	—	153	135	23	5	0	4	10	55	6	3	1	170	258	296	555	126	247	36	7	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL PIT Gold	—	153	129	32	8	0	5	16	39	6	3	1	248	358	426	784	178	314	25	10	349	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	—	124	106	18	5	0	2	11	39	5	0	1	170	279	274	552	104	239	31	9	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	FCL Pirates	—	124	99	23	7	0	3	18	29	5	0	1	232	377	394	771	162	290	23	15	349	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	182	167	33	7	1	3	11	68	2	3	2	198	256	305	561	108	306	37	6	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	182	161	48	11	2	4	17	46	2	3	2	298	372	466	838	168	389	25	9	368	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	—	435	373	57	11	1	15	44	194	13	4	1	153	265	308	573	155	249	45	10	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	—	435	358	81	17	1	22	59	133	13	4	1	226	356	464	820	237	284	31	14	361	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	609	547	123	21	2	23	43	198	13	3	3	225	297	397	694	172	301	33	7	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	609	515	152	28	2	34	75	142	13	3	3	295	398	555	953	260	342	23	12	413	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL PIT Gold	—	153	136	23	5	0	4	10	55	6	3	1	169	258	294	552	125	246	36	7	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	—	124	107	18	5	0	2	11	39	5	0	1	168	279	271	550	103	234	31	9	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	182	167	33	7	1	3	11	68	2	3	2	198	256	305	561	108	304	37	6	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	—	435	375	57	11	1	15	44	194	13	4	1	152	265	307	572	155	242	45	10	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	609	548	123	21	2	23	43	198	13	3	3	224	297	396	693	172	299	33	7	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	182	167	33	7	1	3	11	68	2	3	2	198	256	305	561	108	304	37	6	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	—	435	375	57	11	1	15	44	194	13	4	1	152	265	307	572	155	242	45	10	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	609	548	123	21	2	23	43	198	13	3	3	224	297	396	693	172	299	33	7	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	MLB MLE	PIT	—	524	446	100	25	1	28	70	169	3	0	2	224	333	473	806	249	283	32	13	348	122	+13	-1	+0	-6	+11	1.9
▸ 2026 season
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
SO FAR	22	MLB RAW	PIT	—	287	241	56	14	1	17	42	108	1	0	1	232	349	510	859	278	328	38	15	372	122	+7	-0	+0	-6	+6	0.8
YTD	22	AAA RAW	PIT	—	237	192	49	13	0	13	41	51	2	0	1	255	391	526	918	271	277	22	17	399	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	MLB RAW	PIT	—	287	241	56	14	1	17	42	108	1	0	1	232	349	510	859	278	328	38	15	372	138	+13	-0	+0	-3	+6	1.6
ROS	22	MLB MLE	PIT	100%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						278	0	0	330	110	+0	+0	-0	-0	+0	0.0
ROS	22	MLB CTX	PIT	100%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						274	0	0	315	110	+0	+0	-0	-0	+0	0.0
FULL	22	MLB A+C	PIT	—	288	242	56	14	1	17	42	108	1	0	1	231	347	508	856	277	325	38	15	372	122	+7	-0	-0	-3	+6	1.0
TOT	22	MLB MLE	PIT	—	525	447	100	25	1	28	70	169	3	0	2	224	333	472	805	248	282	32	13	348	122	+13	-1	-0	-6	+11	1.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	PIT	82%	571	494	108	24	1	27	66	180	6	1	1	219	318	435	753	217	278	32	12	332	111	+7	-0	-2	-6	+12	1.1
2028	24	MLB MLE	PIT	82%	617	534	119	26	2	30	72	193	6	2	2	223	322	448	769	225	279	31	12	336	113	+10	-0	-2	-7	+13	1.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	PIT	82%	648	561	125	27	2	32	76	202	6	2	2	223	322	449	771	226	279	31	12	338	115	+12	-0	-3	-7	+14	1.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	PIT	82%	648	560	125	27	2	32	77	202	6	2	2	223	323	450	773	227	279	31	12	339	116	+12	-0	-3	-7	+14	1.7
2031	27	MLB MLE	PIT	82%	643	555	124	27	2	32	77	201	6	2	2	223	324	452	777	229	279	31	12	340	116	+12	-0	-3	-7	+14	1.7
2032	28	MLB MLE	PIT	82%	635	547	120	26	1	31	77	199	6	2	2	219	322	441	763	221	278	31	12	339	115	+12	-0	-3	-7	+14	1.5
2033	29	MLB MLE	PIT	82%	623	537	117	26	1	30	75	196	6	1	1	218	320	438	758	220	277	31	12	337	114	+10	-0	-4	-7	+13	1.3
2034	30	MLB MLE	PIT	82%	611	526	114	25	1	29	74	194	6	1	1	217	320	433	754	217	275	32	12	334	112	+9	-0	-5	-7	+13	1.1
2035	31	MLB MLE	PIT	82%	596	513	109	24	1	28	72	191	6	1	1	212	316	427	743	214	272	32	12	330	109	+7	-0	-5	-6	+13	0.8
2036	32	MLB MLE	PIT	82%	577	497	104	22	1	27	70	187	5	1	1	209	313	421	733	211	268	32	12	324	106	+4	-0	-6	-6	+13	0.4
2037	33	MLB MLE	PIT	82%	547	471	96	20	1	25	66	181	5	1	1	204	308	410	718	206	263	33	12	317	101	+0	-0	-6	-6	+12	-0.0
2038	34	MLB MLE	PIT	77%	499	432	85	17	1	22	60	168	4	0	0	197	300	394	694	197	256	34	12	308	94	-3	+0	-7	-5	+11	-0.5
2027	23	MLB CTX	PIT	82%	468	406	86	19	1	20	54	148	5	1	1	212	312	411	723	200	275	32	12	317	111	+6	-0	-2	-5	+10	0.9
2028	24	MLB CTX	PIT	82%	506	437	94	21	1	23	59	158	5	1	1	215	315	426	741	211	275	31	12	320	113	+8	-0	-2	-5	+11	1.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	PIT	82%	531	458	99	22	1	24	63	165	5	1	1	216	317	426	743	210	276	31	12	323	115	+10	-0	-2	-6	+12	1.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	PIT	82%	531	458	99	22	1	24	63	165	5	1	1	216	317	426	743	210	275	31	12	324	116	+10	-0	-2	-6	+12	1.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	PIT	82%	527	454	98	22	1	24	63	164	5	1	1	216	318	427	745	211	275	31	12	324	116	+10	-0	-2	-6	+11	1.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	PIT	82%	521	448	97	22	1	24	63	163	5	1	1	217	320	431	751	214	274	31	12	323	115	+9	-0	-3	-6	+11	1.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	PIT	82%	511	439	94	21	1	23	62	161	5	1	1	214	318	424	742	210	273	32	12	321	114	+9	-0	-3	-5	+11	1.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	PIT	82%	501	430	91	20	1	22	61	159	5	1	1	212	317	416	733	205	272	32	12	319	112	+7	-0	-4	-5	+11	0.9
2035	31	MLB CTX	PIT	82%	489	422	88	20	1	21	59	157	5	1	1	209	313	410	723	201	269	32	12	315	109	+5	-0	-4	-5	+11	0.7
2036	32	MLB CTX	PIT	82%	473	409	83	18	1	20	57	154	4	1	1	203	306	399	705	196	265	33	12	309	106	+3	-0	-5	-5	+10	0.3
2037	33	MLB CTX	PIT	82%	449	388	78	17	1	19	54	148	4	1	1	201	305	397	702	196	260	33	12	303	101	+0	-0	-5	-5	+10	-0.0
2038	34	MLB CTX	PIT	77%	387	335	64	13	1	15	46	130	3	0	0	191	294	370	664	179	253	34	12	294	94	-3	+0	-5	-4	+8	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	5895	5085	1071	237	12	259	704	1872	56	11	11	211	313	415	728	204	272	32	12	317	104	+75	-2	-39	-63	+128	10.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	561	118	26	1	29	78	206	6	1	1	210	313	415	729	205	271	32	12	317	104	+8	-0	-4	-7	+14	1.1
Career	—	MLE		—	8719	7556	1600	340	20	392	981	2848	107	29	24	212	311	418	729	206	277	33	11	321	104	+92	-3	-49	-77	+156	12.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	563	118	25	1	29	73	212	8	2	2	210	309	412	721	202	273	33	11	321	104	+8	-0	-4	-7	+14	1.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jay Brucelast yr '20 career totals — 13 seasons, 6,603 PA	9.9	6,603	318	65	245	314	469	-71	-54	19.6	19.5
/162	664	32	7	-7.1	-5.4	2.0	pk7: 19
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 12 projected seasons	9.8	6,505	311	15	217	315	436	-42	-33	21.7	18.0
/162	664	32	1	-4.3	-3.4	2.2	pk7: 14
#2Mark Reynoldslast yr '19 career totals — 13 seasons, 6,243 PA	9.4	6,243	298	64	236	328	453	-49	-105	16.0	16.3
/162	664	32	7	-5.2	-11.1	1.7	pk7: 17
#3Colby Rasmuslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 4,070 PA	6.1	4,070	165	35	242	311	438	-0	+8	16.7	16.2
/162	664	27	6	-0.0	+1.3	2.7	pk7: 16
#4Joey Gallolast yr '24 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,373 PA	5.1	3,373	207	32	195	320	459	-29	-11	13.5	14.1
/162	664	41	6	-5.6	-2.1	2.7	pk7: 15
#5Khris Davislast yr '21 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,804 PA	5.7	3,804	221	18	242	314	491	-40	-39	13.3	13.4
/162	664	39	3	-7.0	-6.9	2.3	pk7: 13
#6Pedro Álvarezlast yr '18 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,287 PA	5.0	3,287	161	15	235	309	447	+1	-40	10.0	10.2
/162	664	33	3	+0.2	-8.0	2.0	pk7: 10

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Esmerlyn Valdez (OGILVIE)	22	43	58	40	55	215/313/429	214	278	15	1	32%	11%	110	+1.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Spencer Torkelson 2022 · AAA	22	41→45	57→60	45→40	50	223/310/423	200	269	24	6	27%	10%	106	+1.8	219/299/389	170	275	20	3	27%	9%	95	+0.9	228/314/430	201	280	26	2	27%	10%	106	+2.0
●Andy Pages 2023 · AA	22	38→48	55	45→50	44	207/289/391	184	267	23	6	31%	8%	92	+0.7	240/307/413	173	302	20	9	27%	7%	103	+1.5	266/322/445	180	311	23	10	22%	6%	115	+2.3
●Chris Carter 2009 · A	22	38→48	58→65	47→45	44	214/284/418	204	274	27	3	32%	8%	96	+1.0	231/304/423	192	297	24	6	30%	9%	104	+1.6	226/317/463	237	289	33	4	33%	11%	114	+2.3
●Mark Vientos 2022 · AAA	22	41→50	55→60	38→30	37	222/269/403	181	298	24	3	34%	5%	86	+0.3	239/296/423	184	323	24	2	32%	7%	101	+1.4	243/303/441	198	304	26	1	28%	7%	106	+1.5
✕Francisco Alvarez 2023 · AAA	21	44→45	58→60	43→40	47	233/313/435	202	294	27	4	30%	9%	110	+2.1	231/305/429	198	282	27	4	28%	8%	106	+1.8	229/304/430	202	273	28	2	27%	9%	104	+1.1
●Wily Mo Peña 2005 · MLB	23	46→51	63→65	47→40	42	253/311/481	229	306	34	9	30%	6%	120	+2.8	261/318/470	209	343	28	5	31%	7%	120	+2.8	263/321/460	198	351	26	2	31%	6%	116	+1.4
✕Justin Foscue 2022 · AA	23	44→48	58→55	43→50	40	229/301/440	210	309	26	5	34%	7%	107	+1.9	228/308/388	160	263	17	7	20%	9%	97	+1.1	226/303/395	170	256	20	6	20%	9%	94	+0.6
●Miguel Sanó 2017 · MLB	24	46→53	60→70	47→45	50	238/325/455	217	328	28	4	34%	11%	119	+2.7	242/327/470	228	344	31	2	36%	11%	123	+3.0	239/330/487	247	334	35	0	36%	11%	124	+2.3
✕MJ Melendez 2022 · AAA	23	38→48	60	40→50	46	217/288/430	213	270	29	5	32%	9%	99	+1.3	224/305/409	185	277	22	6	26%	10%	101	+1.4	218/301/397	179	270	20	5	26%	10%	94	+0.8
●Mark Reynolds 2007 · AA	23	44→54	57→65	43→50	42	234/291/432	198	298	26	3	31%	7%	101	+1.4	253/326/470	217	340	27	8	32%	9%	122	+3.0	255/337/490	236	340	30	12	32%	10%	128	+3.4
●Gleyber Torres 2020 · MLB	23	50→53	60	45→50	49	267/330/480	213	303	29	7	23%	8%	126	+3.2	257/327/422	165	301	20	10	21%	9%	112	+2.2	258/344/398	139	293	17	6	17%	11%	111	+2.3
✕Eloy Jiménez 2020 · MLB	23	49→55	58→65	42→40	42	263/306/465	202	305	27	2	24%	6%	114	+2.4	265/314/468	203	316	28	2	25%	6%	118	+2.7	269/323/463	194	320	28	0	24%	7%	119	+1.3
✕Kala Ka'aihue 2007 · A	22	43→48	56→55	47→30	46	228/304/419	192	302	24	3	32%	9%	103	+1.6	209/295/366	157	301	19	3	34%	10%	88	+0.4	188/283/331	143	273	17	1	35%	10%	74	-0.4
★Austin Riley 2020 · MLB	23	43→53	57→65	40→45	38	230/281/426	196	302	26	2	33%	6%	97	+1.1	263/326/479	216	324	29	2	27%	7%	125	+3.2	282/354/518	236	335	31	1	25%	8%	140	+4.9
●Franmil Reyes 2019 · MLB	24	48→52	55→65	41→45	44	248/303/429	181	312	24	3	29%	7%	105	+1.7	254/320/480	226	316	33	3	29%	9%	123	+3.0	252/322/499	246	307	36	2	30%	9%	125	+2.2
✕Adam Duvall 2012 · A	23	44→45	55→70	44→45	45	234/301/428	194	281	23	4	26%	7%	104	+1.6	220/272/405	185	257	24	4	25%	6%	88	+0.5	225/286/491	266	245	40	3	28%	7%	112	+1.6
✕Matt LaPorta 2008 · A	23	44→49	61→55	44→30	37	239/291/459	220	301	30	5	32%	5%	108	+1.9	239/309/421	182	272	22	3	21%	7%	105	+1.7	237/313/410	173	265	21	2	19%	8%	102	+1.3
✕Sergio Pedroza 2007 · A	23	42→47	56→60	38→45	47	220/314/415	194	293	24	3	32%	10%	106	+1.8	229/303/387	158	305	17	7	29%	8%	95	+1.0	228/299/376	148	295	16	7	27%	7%	89	+0.3
●Andy LaRoche 2006 · AA	22	48→55	57→55	47→45	44	256/305/446	191	293	26	8	23%	6%	109	+2.0	253/326/412	159	285	19	8	18%	9%	109	+2.0	244/331/387	143	269	17	7	16%	11%	101	+1.1
●Tyler Soderstrom 2023 · AAA	21	44→53	55→60	44→40	37	229/276/409	180	308	23	3	33%	6%	91	+0.6	225/284/408	183	286	24	4	30%	7%	93	+0.8	251/333/462	211	292	26	4	23%	10%	119	+2.2

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps