Esmerlyn Valdez

RF Pittsburgh Pirates

Age 23 R/R 6'2" / 234 lbs MLB HR -15%K -5% Svc 0.669 · Ctrl thru 2032

Overview

MLB40-MANPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	20	APIT	435	.226/.356/.464	22	4	60	—	.160/.265/.314
2025	21	AA/A+/INTL2 orgs	609	.295/.398/.555	34	3	116	—	.233/.304/.412
2026	22	AAAPIT	237	.255/.391/.526	13	0	105	—	.222/.328/.429
2026	22	MLBPIT	287	.232/.349/.510	17	0	143	1.5
2027PROJ	23	MLBPIT	305	.210/.309/.407	13	1	105	0.4
2028PROJ92% MLB	24	MLBPIT	465	.211/.311/.412	20	2	107	0.7
2029PROJ92% MLB	25	MLBPIT	517	.212/.312/.414	22	2	108	0.9

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.5 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.669First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$3M2031Arb-2$5M2032Arb-3$6M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

Barrel%90

Avg EV90

xwOBA70

Speed66

Form.207/.307/.421 · rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .212/.309/.419

CompsMJ Melendez (age 23) · Spencer Torkelson (age 22) · Mark Vientos (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†105

AVG/OBP/SLG.210 / .309 / .407

PA305

HR13

K%32

BB%11

BABIP274

ISO201

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$21M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2026

CONTACT

xAVG

100.200

POWER

Barrel%

9019.9

Avg EV

9091.9

SPEED

Sprint

6628.1

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%34%▼38% over 32 PA (60d) · proj 32%

BB%12%·12% over 32 PA (60d) · proj 12%

ISO.214·.250 over 28 AB (60d) · proj .208

BABIP.272·.143 over 14 BIP (60d) · proj .274

SLASH.207/.307/.421·proj .212/.309/.419

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.669 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$3M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.5M
2031	Arb-2	$5M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$6M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$16M	+$7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	17	ROK	DSL PIT Gold	—	153	129	32	8	0	5	16	39	6	3	1	248	358	426	784	178	314	25	10	349	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	FCL Pirates	—	124	99	23	7	0	3	18	29	5	0	1	232	377	394	771	162	290	23	15	349	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	Bradenton Marauders	—	23	20	5	1	1	0	2	9	1	0	0	250	348	400	748	150	455	39	9	337	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK	FCL Pirates	—	159	141	43	10	1	4	15	37	1	3	2	305	376	475	851	170	382	23	9	373	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A	Bradenton Marauders	—	435	358	81	17	1	22	59	133	13	4	1	226	356	464	820	237	284	31	14	361	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA	Altoona Curve	—	215	181	47	7	1	6	25	53	6	1	2	260	368	409	777	149	328	25	12	348	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	314	277	84	18	1	20	31	77	6	2	0	303	385	592	977	289	356	25	10	424	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	80	57	21	3	0	8	19	12	1	0	1	368	532	842	1.375	474	325	15	24	544	254	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	287	241	56	14	1	17	42	108	1	0	1	232	349	510	859	278	328	38	15	372	143	+15	-0	+0	-6	+6	1.5
2026	22	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	237	192	49	13	0	13	41	51	2	0	1	255	391	526	918	271	277	22	17	399	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	287	241	56	14	1	17	42	108	1	0	1	232	349	510	859	278	328	38	15	372	138	+13	-0	+0	-6	+6	1.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL PIT Gold	—	153	133	21	5	0	3	12	47	6	3	1	158	258	263	521	105	205	31	8	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	—	124	106	18	5	0	2	11	39	5	0	1	170	279	274	552	104	239	31	9	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	—	23	21	4	1	1	0	1	12	1	0	0	190	261	333	594	143	432	52	4	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	—	159	147	30	6	1	3	9	56	1	3	2	204	255	320	575	116	289	35	6	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	—	435	376	60	11	1	15	41	185	13	4	1	160	265	314	579	154	239	43	9	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	215	188	43	6	1	5	18	68	6	1	2	229	316	351	667	122	309	32	8	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	314	289	68	13	1	16	19	101	6	2	0	235	296	453	749	218	301	32	6	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	287	241	56	13	1	18	42	108	1	0	1	232	349	519	867	286	328	38	15	380	143	+15	-0	+0	-6	+6	1.5
2026	22	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	237	203	45	12	0	10	30	61	2	0	1	222	328	429	756	207	254	26	13	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL PIT Gold	—	153	133	21	5	0	3	12	47	6	3	1	158	258	263	521	105	214	31	8	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL PIT Gold	—	153	129	32	8	0	5	16	39	6	3	1	248	358	426	784	178	314	25	10	349	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	—	124	106	18	5	0	2	11	39	5	0	1	170	279	274	552	104	239	31	9	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	FCL Pirates	—	124	99	23	7	0	3	18	29	5	0	1	232	377	394	771	162	290	23	15	349	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	182	167	33	7	1	3	11	68	2	3	2	198	256	305	561	108	306	37	6	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	182	161	48	11	2	4	17	46	2	3	2	298	372	466	838	168	389	25	9	368	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	—	435	376	60	11	1	15	41	185	13	4	1	160	265	314	579	154	249	43	9	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	—	435	358	81	17	1	22	59	133	13	4	1	226	356	464	820	237	284	31	14	361	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	609	547	128	22	2	25	43	195	13	3	3	234	305	419	724	185	309	32	7	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	609	515	152	28	2	34	75	142	13	3	3	295	398	555	953	260	342	23	12	413	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	524	444	101	25	1	28	72	169	3	0	2	227	339	477	817	250	290	32	14	354	126	+16	-1	+0	-6	+11	2.2
2026	22	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	524	433	105	27	1	30	83	159	3	0	2	242	368	517	885	275	301	30	16	384	126	+16	-1	+0	-6	+11	2.2
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL PIT Gold	—	153	134	21	5	0	3	12	47	6	3	1	157	258	261	519	104	205	31	8	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	—	124	107	18	5	0	2	11	39	5	0	1	168	279	271	550	103	239	31	9	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	182	167	33	7	1	3	11	68	2	3	2	198	256	305	561	108	307	37	6	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	—	435	378	60	11	1	15	41	185	13	4	1	159	265	312	577	153	239	43	9	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	609	548	128	22	2	25	43	195	13	3	3	234	305	418	723	184	304	32	7	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	524	444	101	25	1	28	72	169	3	0	2	227	339	477	817	250	294	32	14	354	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	20	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	—	435	378	60	11	1	15	41	185	13	4	1	159	265	312	577	153	239	43	9	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	609	548	128	22	2	25	43	195	13	3	3	234	305	418	723	184	304	32	7	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	524	444	101	25	1	28	72	169	3	0	2	227	339	477	817	250	294	32	14	354	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	PIT	100%	609	528	113	23	2	28	70	197	6	3	1	212	311	419	731	207	274	32	11	324	105	+4	+0	-2	-7	+13	0.8
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	23	MLB CTX	PIT	100%	305	264	56	12	1	13	35	99	3	1	0	210	309	407	716	197	274	32	11	318	105	+2	+0	-1	-3	+7	0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	PIT	92%	505	436	93	19	1	23	59	163	5	2	1	214	314	425	739	211	275	32	12	327	107	+4	+0	-2	-5	+11	0.8
2029	25	MLB MLE	PIT	92%	562	486	104	21	2	26	66	181	5	3	1	215	315	427	742	213	275	32	12	328	108	+5	+0	-2	-6	+12	1.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	PIT	92%	576	498	108	22	2	27	68	185	5	2	1	214	315	427	742	213	274	32	12	328	108	+6	+0	-2	-6	+12	1.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	PIT	92%	568	491	105	21	2	26	67	183	5	2	1	213	314	424	738	211	274	32	12	327	107	+5	+0	-2	-6	+12	0.9
2032	28	MLB MLE	PIT	92%	557	481	102	21	1	26	66	181	5	0	0	211	312	419	731	208	272	32	12	324	105	+3	+0	-3	-6	+12	0.7
2033	29	MLB MLE	PIT	92%	542	468	97	20	1	24	64	178	5	0	0	209	309	412	721	204	270	33	12	320	103	+2	+0	-4	-6	+12	0.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	PIT	92%	527	457	94	19	1	23	61	174	4	0	0	205	305	404	709	199	268	33	12	315	100	-0	+0	-4	-6	+11	0.1
2035	31	MLB MLE	PIT	92%	509	441	89	18	1	22	59	170	4	0	0	201	300	394	694	193	264	33	12	309	96	-3	+0	-5	-5	+11	-0.2
2036	32	MLB MLE	PIT	92%	486	424	82	16	1	20	56	165	3	0	0	196	294	381	675	185	259	34	12	302	90	-6	+0	-5	-5	+11	-0.6
2028	24	MLB CTX	PIT	92%	465	404	85	18	1	20	54	150	4	2	1	211	311	412	723	201	275	32	12	321	107	+4	+0	-2	-5	+10	0.7
2029	25	MLB CTX	PIT	92%	517	446	95	20	2	22	61	166	5	2	1	212	312	414	726	202	275	32	12	322	108	+5	+0	-2	-6	+11	0.9
2030	26	MLB CTX	PIT	92%	530	458	98	21	2	23	62	170	5	2	1	212	312	414	726	202	275	32	12	322	108	+5	+0	-2	-6	+11	0.9
2031	27	MLB CTX	PIT	92%	523	451	95	20	1	23	62	169	5	2	0	210	311	411	722	201	274	32	12	321	107	+4	+0	-2	-6	+11	0.9
2032	28	MLB CTX	PIT	92%	512	443	93	20	1	22	60	166	4	0	0	209	309	406	716	198	273	32	12	318	105	+3	+0	-3	-5	+11	0.6
2033	29	MLB CTX	PIT	92%	499	434	89	19	1	21	58	164	4	0	0	206	307	400	706	194	271	33	12	315	103	+2	+0	-3	-5	+11	0.4
2034	30	MLB CTX	PIT	92%	485	422	85	18	1	20	56	161	4	0	0	203	303	392	695	189	268	33	12	310	100	-0	+0	-4	-5	+11	0.1
2035	31	MLB CTX	PIT	92%	468	407	81	17	1	19	54	157	4	0	0	199	298	382	680	184	265	34	12	304	96	-2	+0	-4	-5	+10	-0.2
2036	32	MLB CTX	PIT	92%	447	390	76	16	1	17	51	152	3	0	0	193	292	369	661	176	260	34	11	297	90	-5	+0	-5	-5	+10	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4733	4096	853	183	12	204	560	1563	39	8	4	208	309	408	717	200	276	33	12	318	98	+29	+0	-27	-53	+103	5.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	563	117	25	2	28	77	215	5	1	1	208	309	409	717	201	276	33	12	318	98	+4	+0	-4	-7	+14	0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	7164	6219	1291	263	18	307	791	2382	86	23	14	208	306	404	709	196	275	33	11	313	98	+32	+0	-31	-61	+118	5.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	564	118	24	2	28	72	216	8	2	1	209	307	408	715	199	278	33	11	313	98	+4	+0	-4	-7	+14	0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 237 PAwOBA .392 → .324 (−68)K% 21.5% → 25.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.52%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	25.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.30%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.050	12.53%
HBP% /PA	0.84%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.83%
Singles /BIP	16.31%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.004	×1.050	15.99%
Doubles /BIP	9.22%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.004	×1.050	8.07%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.004	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	9.22%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.050	6.78%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.

Result: wOBA .392 → .324; ISO .271 → .213; BABIP .277 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 314 PAwOBA .412 → .319 (−93)K% 24.5% → 32.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.52%	÷0.994	×1.310	—	—	32.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.87%	÷0.980	×0.600	—	×1.027	6.21%
HBP% /PA	1.91%	—	×0.770	—	×1.027	1.51%
Singles /BIP	22.50%	÷0.950	×0.870	×0.953	×1.027	20.18%
Doubles /BIP	9.00%	÷0.998	×0.780	×0.953	×1.027	6.88%
Triples /BIP	0.50%	÷1.025	×0.850	×0.953	×1.027	0.41%
Home runs /BIP	10.00%	÷1.048	×0.880	—	×1.027	8.62%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 90, 2B 100, 3B 105, K 99, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.953.

Result: wOBA .412 → .319; ISO .289 → .228; BABIP .356 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAltoona Curve · 215 PAwOBA .344 → .295 (−49)K% 24.7% → 31.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.65%	÷0.947	×1.220	—	—	31.75%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.63%	÷1.033	×0.700	—	×1.050	8.27%
HBP% /PA	2.79%	—	×0.850	—	×1.050	2.49%
Singles /BIP	25.78%	÷1.024	×0.970	×0.976	×1.050	25.02%
Doubles /BIP	5.47%	÷1.036	×0.860	×0.976	×1.050	4.65%
Triples /BIP	0.78%	÷1.150	×0.950	×0.976	×1.050	0.66%
Home runs /BIP	4.69%	÷0.891	×0.780	—	×1.050	4.31%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 105, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 89, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.

Result: wOBA .344 → .295; ISO .149 → .129; BABIP .328 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ABradenton Marauders · 435 PAwOBA .356 → .257 (−99)K% 30.6% → 42.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.57%	÷0.975	×1.360	—	—	42.64%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.56%	÷1.010	×0.690	—	×1.030	9.54%
HBP% /PA	2.99%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	2.40%
Singles /BIP	18.22%	÷0.977	×0.920	×0.953	×1.030	16.84%
Doubles /BIP	7.56%	÷1.124	×0.830	×0.953	×1.030	5.47%
Triples /BIP	0.44%	÷1.052	×0.910	×0.953	×1.030	0.38%
Home runs /BIP	9.78%	÷1.046	×0.800	—	×1.030	7.71%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 95, 2B 125, 3B 110, K 95, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.953.

Result: wOBA .356 → .257; ISO .237 → .162; BABIP .284 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Pirates · 159 PAwOBA .368 → .249 (−119)K% 23.3% → 35.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.27%	÷0.949	×1.440	—	—	35.31%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.43%	÷1.002	×0.620	—	×1.008	5.88%
HBP% /PA	0.63%	—	×0.720	—	×1.008	0.46%
Singles /BIP	26.92%	÷0.984	×0.820	×0.950	×1.008	21.46%
Doubles /BIP	9.62%	÷1.026	×0.720	×0.950	×1.008	6.46%
Triples /BIP	0.96%	÷0.966	×0.720	×0.950	×1.008	0.69%
Home runs /BIP	3.85%	÷0.925	×0.780	—	×1.008	3.27%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 97, 2B 105, 3B 93, K 90, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .368 → .249; ISO .170 → .116; BABIP .382 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ABradenton Marauders · 23 PAwOBA .329 → .249 (−80)K% 39.1% → 51.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	39.13%	÷1.037	×1.360	—	—	51.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.70%	÷0.994	×0.690	—	×1.045	6.31%
HBP% /PA	4.35%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	3.54%
Singles /BIP	27.27%	÷0.958	×0.920	—	×1.045	27.36%
Doubles /BIP	9.09%	÷0.949	×0.830	—	×1.045	8.31%
Triples /BIP	9.09%	÷1.150	×0.910	—	×1.045	7.52%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.971	×0.800	—	×1.045	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 92, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 107, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .329 → .249; ISO .150 → .104; BABIP .455 → .432. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKFCL Pirates · 124 PAwOBA .343 → .263 (−80)K% 23.4% → 31.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.39%	÷1.069	×1.440	—	—	31.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.71%	÷0.988	×0.620	—	×1.022	8.79%
HBP% /PA	4.03%	—	×0.720	—	×1.022	2.97%
Singles /BIP	18.57%	÷1.005	×0.820	×1.049	×1.022	16.26%
Doubles /BIP	10.00%	÷1.027	×0.720	×1.049	×1.022	7.52%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.049	×1.022	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.29%	÷0.977	×0.780	—	×1.022	3.50%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 101, 2B 105, 3B 100, K 114, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.049.

Result: wOBA .343 → .263; ISO .162 → .128; BABIP .290 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 DSLDSL PIT Gold · 153 PAwOBA .343 → .226 (−116)K% 25.5% → 30.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.49%	÷1.020	×1.220	—	—	30.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.46%	÷0.972	×0.700	—	×1.022	7.70%
HBP% /PA	3.92%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	2.81%
Singles /BIP	21.11%	÷0.959	×0.680	×0.961	×1.022	14.72%
Doubles /BIP	8.89%	÷0.968	×0.600	×0.961	×1.022	5.41%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.961	×1.022	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.56%	÷0.899	×0.470	—	×1.022	2.97%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 92, 2B 94, 3B 100, K 104, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.

Result: wOBA .343 → .226; ISO .178 → .100; BABIP .314 → .205. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jeromy Burnitz'93-'06 * career totals — 13 seasons, 6,579 PA	9.9	6,579	315	74	243*	330*	466*	-62	-31	22.9	21.7
/162	664	32	7	-6.3	-3.1	2.3	pk7: 20
#2Rob Deer'84-'96 * career totals — 10 seasons, 4,512 PA	6.8	4,512	230	43	218*	322*	466*	-51	+17	16.9	16.3
/162	664	34	6	-7.4	+2.5	2.5	pk7: 16
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	7.6	5,037	232	11	211	309	421	-33	-28	13.8	12.4
/162	664	31	1	-4.4	-3.6	1.8	pk7: 11
#3Pete Incaviglia'86-'98 * career totals — 11 seasons, 4,677 PA	7.0	4,677	206	33	242*	307*	466*	-56	-19	9.9	10.5
/162	664	29	5	-8.0	-2.7	1.4	pk7: 11
#4Kole Calhounlast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,963 PA	7.5	4,963	179	33	242	316	418	-54	-33	8.3	9.6
/162	664	24	4	-7.3	-4.4	1.1	pk7: 11
#5Hunter Renfroelast yr '25 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,727 PA	5.6	3,727	188	15	235	297	458	-40	-32	7.3	8.0
/162	664	33	3	-7.1	-5.7	1.3	pk7: 9
#6Anthony Santanderlast yr '25 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,305 PA	5.0	3,305	161	10	241	305	459	-35	-36	6.7	7.2
/162	664	32	2	-7.1	-7.3	1.4	pk7: 8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Esmerlyn Valdez (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	210/309/416	205	274	14	1	32%	12%	105	+0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕MJ Melendez 2022 · AAA	23	40→48	61→60	40→50	46	223/295/441	219	278	30	5	32%	9%	105	+1.7	225/305/410	185	278	22	6	26%	10%	101	+1.4	217/299/394	178	268	20	5	26%	10%	96	+1.0
●Spencer Torkelson 2022 · AAA	22	43→45	57→60	45→40	51	229/318/434	206	277	25	6	27%	10%	112	+2.2	220/302/392	172	276	20	3	27%	10%	96	+1.0	227/317/425	198	291	25	1	30%	10%	110	+2.2
●Mark Vientos 2024 · MLB	24	47→51	55→60	42→30	41	243/300/429	186	320	24	2	31%	7%	104	+1.6	247/304/446	199	308	26	2	28%	7%	109	+2.0	244/301/449	205	295	28	0	27%	7%	109	+1.5
✕Justin Foscue 2022 · AA	23	44→48	59→55	43→50	40	232/305/445	213	313	27	5	34%	7%	110	+2.1	236/316/397	161	272	17	7	20%	9%	102	+1.5	232/321/385	153	262	16	7	18%	10%	99	+0.9
✕Logan O'Hoppe 2024 · MLB	24	45→48	57→55	43→45	49	240/314/434	193	269	26	6	22%	8%	110	+2.1	233/291/394	161	295	22	4	28%	7%	93	+0.8	226/283/371	144	289	20	2	28%	6%	84	+0.1
✕Juan Yepez 2022 · AAA	24	44→49	57→60	39→45	47	237/307/438	201	277	26	4	25%	8%	109	+2.0	234/292/406	172	275	21	3	23%	7%	95	+1.0	232/290/385	153	271	19	3	22%	7%	88	+0.4
●Hunter Goodman 2024 · MLB	24	39→49	57→65	45→40	39	214/270/414	200	272	26	4	32%	6%	90	+0.6	228/281/441	213	278	28	4	29%	6%	100	+1.3	232/286/458	227	274	32	3	28%	6%	107	+1.6
●Chris Carter 2011 · MLB	24	44→54	58→65	45	47	233/311/438	205	293	26	5	29%	9%	110	+2.1	228/309/430	202	300	26	5	32%	10%	107	+1.9	225/312/459	235	286	33	4	33%	11%	116	+2.4
●Pedro Álvarez 2011 · MLB	24	48	57→65	42→45	45	247/310/447	200	324	24	4	31%	8%	112	+2.2	234/300/430	196	305	26	3	31%	8%	104	+1.6	236/300/460	224	282	33	4	29%	8%	112	+2.0
●Franmil Reyes 2019 · MLB	24	49→53	56→65	41→45	44	253/310/439	187	318	25	3	29%	7%	109	+2.0	255/319/481	226	317	33	3	29%	9%	123	+3.0	251/318/495	245	304	36	2	30%	9%	127	+2.3
●Andy Pages 2023 · AA	22	39→49	56→60	45→50	45	211/297/402	191	273	24	6	31%	9%	97	+1.1	243/312/420	177	306	20	9	26%	7%	106	+1.8	269/326/453	184	315	23	10	22%	6%	121	+2.8
✕Jerry Sands 2012 · MLB	24	44→46	56→60	48→45	46	233/297/425	192	281	24	7	26%	8%	102	+1.5	217/284/369	152	286	18	4	29%	8%	84	+0.1	232/297/374	143	282	16	2	23%	8%	88	+0.2
✕Michael Chavis 2020 · MLB	24	46	58→60	46→45	41	244/302/441	198	318	28	5	32%	7%	107	+1.9	231/281/403	172	308	23	6	32%	5%	91	+0.6	221/263/383	162	291	21	4	31%	4%	79	-0.1
✕Renato Núñez 2018 · MLB	24	37→47	57→60	46→30	39	210/259/398	188	255	26	3	30%	5%	82	-0.0	238/298/415	177	294	23	3	27%	7%	100	+1.3	246/311/421	175	298	23	1	25%	7%	106	+1.3
●Paul DeJong 2018 · MLB	24	48→51	57→65	43→45	38	252/295/450	198	316	26	4	29%	5%	107	+1.8	243/310/444	201	291	26	5	26%	7%	112	+2.2	236/315/431	196	277	25	5	24%	8%	112	+1.6
★Austin Riley 2021 · MLB	24	44→54	60→65	41→45	41	240/293/454	213	298	29	3	30%	6%	107	+1.9	278/343/506	228	333	30	2	25%	8%	137	+4.0	281/350/516	235	333	31	1	25%	8%	143	+5.2
●Miguel Sanó 2017 · MLB	24	47→52	60→70	47→45	49	240/325/461	221	330	28	4	34%	11%	120	+2.8	241/324/471	230	341	31	2	36%	11%	122	+3.0	239/326/486	247	331	35	0	36%	11%	127	+2.5
✕Nolan Gorman 2024 · MLB	24	43→46	61→60	48→45	45	235/305/449	214	302	31	8	33%	9%	110	+2.1	208/285/399	191	281	27	6	35%	10%	92	+0.7	186/269/358	172	251	25	3	36%	10%	77	-0.2
✕Wilin Rosario 2013 · MLB	24	45→54	59→60	39→45	40	244/281/444	200	280	28	5	25%	5%	101	+1.4	257/288/428	171	301	22	5	22%	4%	99	+1.2	259/286/416	157	305	19	4	22%	3%	95	+0.7
✕Oswaldo Arcia 2015 · MLB	24	48→56	57→60	42→45	42	250/309/453	203	317	25	4	29%	7%	113	+2.3	223/284/402	179	290	23	3	31%	7%	92	+0.7	217/296/406	188	293	24	3	33%	8%	96	+0.5

Esmerlyn Valdez

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps