Rafael Flores Jr.
C Indianapolis Indians| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | AA/A+NYY | 506 | .279/.380/.495 | 21 | 8 | 85 | — | .224/.293/.385 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 576 | .280/.358/.470 | 22 | 6 | 87 | — | .241/.300/.389 |
| 2025 | 24 | MLBPIT | 17 | .200/.294/.333 | 0 | 0 | 76 | -1.0 | |
| 2026 | 25 | AAAPIT | 276 | .228/.362/.342 | 4 | 0 | 69 | — | .202/.301/.293 |
| 2026 | 25 | MLBPIT | 163 | .264/.331/.527 | 11 | 0 | 143 | 2.0 | |
| 2027PROJ45% MLB | 26 | MLBPIT | 70 | .226/.305/.375 | 2 | 0 | 95 | 0.2 | |
| 2028PROJ56% MLB | 27 | MLBPIT | 249 | .225/.305/.374 | 7 | 1 | 94 | 0.8 | |
| 2029PROJ62% MLB | 28 | MLBPIT | 274 | .225/.303/.371 | 8 | 1 | 93 | 0.8 |
Tools · Recent Form · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 434 | 382 | 99 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 49 | 108 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 259 | 346 | 366 | 713 | 107 | 341 | 25 | 11 | 325 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Somerset Patriots | — | 273 | 241 | 66 | 14 | 0 | 15 | 28 | 73 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 274 | 359 | 519 | 878 | 245 | 333 | 27 | 10 | 385 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 233 | 193 | 55 | 17 | 0 | 6 | 38 | 55 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 285 | 405 | 466 | 871 | 181 | 368 | 24 | 16 | 389 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | — | 17 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 294 | 333 | 627 | 133 | 375 | 41 | 12 | 286 | 76 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -11 | +0 | -1.0 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | — | 206 | 173 | 46 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 54 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 266 | 374 | 422 | 796 | 156 | 339 | 26 | 13 | 355 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Somerset Patriots | — | 370 | 335 | 96 | 23 | 1 | 15 | 30 | 94 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 287 | 349 | 496 | 844 | 209 | 354 | 25 | 8 | 369 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | — | 163 | 148 | 39 | 6 | 0 | 11 | 15 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 264 | 331 | 527 | 858 | 264 | 304 | 28 | 9 | 374 | 143 | +8 | +0 | +0 | +8 | +4 | 2.0 |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | — | 276 | 228 | 52 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 46 | 69 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 228 | 362 | 342 | 704 | 114 | 310 | 25 | 17 | 328 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 180 | 163 | 42 | 8 | 0 | 11 | 17 | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 258 | 328 | 509 | 837 | 252 | 310 | 29 | 9 | 366 | 134 | +7 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +4 | 0.9 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 434 | 405 | 83 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 141 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 205 | 256 | 289 | 545 | 84 | 294 | 32 | 6 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 273 | 249 | 57 | 13 | 0 | 11 | 20 | 87 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 229 | 297 | 414 | 710 | 185 | 303 | 32 | 7 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 233 | 211 | 46 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 76 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 218 | 289 | 351 | 640 | 133 | 306 | 33 | 9 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB MLE | Pittsburgh Pirates | — | 17 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 294 | 333 | 627 | 133 | 375 | 41 | 12 | 280 | 76 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -11 | +0 | -1.0 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 206 | 182 | 41 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 67 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 225 | 305 | 352 | 657 | 126 | 308 | 33 | 8 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 370 | 344 | 86 | 20 | 1 | 11 | 21 | 118 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 250 | 297 | 410 | 707 | 160 | 335 | 32 | 6 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | MLB MLE | Pittsburgh Pirates | — | 163 | 149 | 40 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 14 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 268 | 331 | 550 | 882 | 282 | 304 | 28 | 9 | 380 | 143 | +8 | +0 | +0 | +8 | +4 | 2.0 |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 276 | 242 | 49 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 32 | 83 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 202 | 301 | 293 | 594 | 91 | 295 | 30 | 12 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 434 | 405 | 83 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 141 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 205 | 256 | 289 | 545 | 84 | 295 | 32 | 6 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ RAW | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 434 | 382 | 99 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 49 | 108 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 259 | 346 | 366 | 713 | 107 | 341 | 25 | 11 | 325 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 506 | 459 | 102 | 25 | 0 | 16 | 41 | 164 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 222 | 293 | 381 | 674 | 159 | 307 | 32 | 8 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 506 | 434 | 121 | 31 | 0 | 21 | 66 | 128 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 279 | 380 | 495 | 876 | 217 | 350 | 25 | 13 | 387 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 593 | 541 | 129 | 25 | 2 | 16 | 40 | 192 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 238 | 298 | 381 | 679 | 142 | 333 | 32 | 7 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 593 | 523 | 145 | 29 | 2 | 22 | 58 | 155 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 277 | 356 | 467 | 823 | 189 | 349 | 26 | 10 | 362 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 439 | 391 | 88 | 14 | 2 | 15 | 46 | 128 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 225 | 310 | 386 | 696 | 161 | 294 | 29 | 10 | 311 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 439 | 376 | 91 | 16 | 2 | 15 | 61 | 114 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 242 | 351 | 415 | 766 | 173 | 308 | 26 | 14 | 345 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 434 | 403 | 83 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 141 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 206 | 256 | 290 | 547 | 84 | 294 | 32 | 6 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 506 | 455 | 102 | 25 | 0 | 16 | 41 | 164 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 224 | 293 | 385 | 678 | 160 | 304 | 32 | 8 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 593 | 542 | 129 | 25 | 2 | 16 | 40 | 192 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 238 | 298 | 380 | 678 | 142 | 327 | 32 | 7 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 439 | 388 | 88 | 14 | 2 | 15 | 46 | 128 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 227 | 310 | 389 | 699 | 162 | 298 | 29 | 10 | 311 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 506 | 455 | 102 | 25 | 0 | 16 | 41 | 164 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 224 | 293 | 385 | 678 | 160 | 304 | 32 | 8 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 593 | 542 | 129 | 25 | 2 | 16 | 40 | 192 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 238 | 298 | 380 | 678 | 142 | 327 | 32 | 7 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 439 | 388 | 88 | 14 | 2 | 15 | 46 | 128 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 227 | 310 | 389 | 699 | 162 | 298 | 29 | 10 | 311 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | PIT | 45% | 380 | 338 | 78 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 36 | 111 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 227 | 306 | 383 | 690 | 156 | 297 | 29 | 9 | 308 | 95 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +7 | +8 | 0.6 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB CTX | PIT | 45% | 70 | 62 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 226 | 305 | 375 | 680 | 150 | 298 | 29 | 10 | 304 | 95 | -0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +2 | 0.2 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | PIT | 56% | 445 | 397 | 90 | 16 | 2 | 14 | 42 | 129 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 227 | 306 | 382 | 688 | 155 | 296 | 29 | 9 | 307 | 94 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +8 | +10 | 1.4 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB MLE | PIT | 62% | 445 | 398 | 90 | 16 | 2 | 14 | 41 | 129 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 226 | 305 | 378 | 683 | 152 | 295 | 29 | 9 | 305 | 93 | -4 | -0 | -2 | +8 | +10 | 1.2 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB MLE | PIT | 63% | 445 | 398 | 89 | 16 | 2 | 13 | 41 | 128 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 225 | 303 | 373 | 676 | 149 | 293 | 29 | 9 | 303 | 91 | -5 | +0 | -3 | +8 | +10 | 1.1 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB MLE | PIT | 63% | 289 | 259 | 57 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 83 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 223 | 300 | 367 | 667 | 145 | 291 | 29 | 9 | 299 | 88 | -4 | +0 | -3 | +5 | +6 | 0.5 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB MLE | PIT | 64% | 258 | 231 | 51 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 75 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 220 | 296 | 359 | 655 | 140 | 288 | 29 | 9 | 294 | 85 | -5 | +0 | -3 | +5 | +6 | 0.2 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB MLE | PIT | 64% | 227 | 204 | 44 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 67 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 290 | 347 | 636 | 132 | 283 | 30 | 9 | 286 | 80 | -5 | +0 | -4 | +4 | +5 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | PIT | 56% | 249 | 222 | 49 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 72 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 225 | 305 | 374 | 679 | 148 | 297 | 29 | 9 | 304 | 94 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +5 | 0.8 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB CTX | PIT | 62% | 274 | 244 | 55 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 79 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 225 | 303 | 371 | 674 | 146 | 295 | 29 | 9 | 302 | 93 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +6 | 0.8 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB CTX | PIT | 63% | 279 | 249 | 55 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 80 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 223 | 301 | 366 | 667 | 143 | 294 | 29 | 9 | 299 | 91 | -3 | +0 | -2 | +5 | +6 | 0.7 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB CTX | PIT | 63% | 183 | 163 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 53 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 221 | 299 | 360 | 659 | 139 | 292 | 29 | 9 | 296 | 88 | -3 | +0 | -2 | +3 | +4 | 0.3 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB CTX | PIT | 64% | 165 | 148 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 48 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 218 | 295 | 353 | 647 | 134 | 288 | 29 | 9 | 291 | 85 | -3 | +0 | -2 | +3 | +4 | 0.1 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB CTX | PIT | 64% | 145 | 130 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 43 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 213 | 289 | 340 | 629 | 127 | 284 | 30 | 9 | 284 | 80 | -3 | +0 | -3 | +3 | +3 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1475 | 1319 | 298 | 55 | 5 | 47 | 137 | 427 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 226 | 303 | 382 | 685 | 156 | 295 | 29 | 9 | 306 | 86 | -9 | +1 | -10 | +20 | +32 | 3.5 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 581 | 131 | 24 | 2 | 21 | 60 | 188 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 225 | 302 | 382 | 684 | 157 | 293 | 29 | 9 | 306 | 86 | -4 | +0 | -4 | +9 | +14 | 1.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4236 | 3821 | 855 | 156 | 15 | 121 | 361 | 1281 | 30 | 22 | 4 | 224 | 296 | 367 | 663 | 144 | 301 | 30 | 9 | 295 | 86 | -19 | +0 | -16 | +38 | +53 | 5.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 586 | 131 | 24 | 2 | 19 | 55 | 197 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 224 | 296 | 369 | 664 | 145 | 300 | 30 | 8 | 295 | 86 | -5 | +0 | -4 | +10 | +14 | 1.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 276 PAwOBA .321 → .270 (−51)K% 25.0% → 30.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 11.71% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.72% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.64% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.034 | ×1.018 | 22.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.034 | ×1.018 | 5.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.034 | ×1.018 | 1.28% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 1.79% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.
Result: wOBA .321 → .270; ISO .114 → .094; BABIP .310 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AASomerset Patriots · 370 PAwOBA .361 → .301 (−60)K% 25.4% → 31.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.41% | ÷0.970 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.11% | ÷0.977 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 5.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.54% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.65% | ÷0.969 | ×0.970 | ×0.993 | ×0.998 | 23.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.54% | ÷0.953 | ×0.860 | ×0.993 | ×0.998 | 8.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.41% | ÷1.056 | ×0.950 | ×0.993 | ×0.998 | 0.37% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.22% | ÷1.030 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 4.70% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 94, 2B 91, 3B 111, K 94, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.
Result: wOBA .361 → .301; ISO .209 → .160; BABIP .354 → .335. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 206 PAwOBA .351 → .288 (−63)K% 26.2% → 32.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.21% | ÷0.965 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.62% | ÷1.112 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 8.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.94% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.89% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.57% | ÷1.008 | ×0.930 | ×0.976 | ×1.033 | 26.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.36% | ÷0.995 | ×0.830 | ×0.976 | ×1.033 | 2.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.84% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.976 | ×1.033 | 0.71% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.88% | ÷0.915 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 4.65% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 102, 2B 99, 3B 130, K 93, BB 122 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.
Result: wOBA .351 → .288; ISO .156 → .124; BABIP .339 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AASomerset Patriots · 273 PAwOBA .375 → .306 (−68)K% 26.7% → 32.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.74% | ÷1.018 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.26% | ÷0.972 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 7.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.47% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 1.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.02% | ÷1.050 | ×0.970 | ×0.985 | ×1.012 | 20.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷0.902 | ×0.860 | ×0.985 | ×1.012 | 7.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.934 | ×0.950 | ×0.985 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.93% | ÷1.027 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 6.86% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 110, 2B 80, 3B 87, K 104, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.
Result: wOBA .375 → .306; ISO .245 → .191; BABIP .333 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 233 PAwOBA .379 → .279 (−100)K% 23.6% → 32.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.61% | ÷0.946 | ×1.310 | — | — | 32.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.88% | ÷1.099 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.988 | 8.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.43% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.988 | 0.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.19% | ÷1.025 | ×0.870 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 20.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.32% | ÷1.070 | ×0.780 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 9.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.35% | ÷1.032 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 3.66% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 105, 2B 114, 3B 80, K 89, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .379 → .279; ISO .181 → .143; BABIP .368 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 434 PAwOBA .317 → .242 (−74)K% 24.9% → 32.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.88% | ÷1.005 | ×1.310 | — | — | 32.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.06% | ÷1.092 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 6.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.46% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 0.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.37% | ÷1.004 | ×0.870 | ×1.026 | ×0.998 | 24.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.47% | ÷1.060 | ×0.780 | ×1.026 | ×0.998 | 4.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.36% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×1.026 | ×0.998 | 0.35% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.92% | ÷1.006 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 2.55% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 101, 2B 112, 3B 80, K 101, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.
Result: wOBA .317 → .242; ISO .107 → .087; BABIP .341 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).