Rafael Flores Jr.

Rafael Flores Jr.C Indianapolis Indians

Age 25 R/R 6'3" / 232 lbs AAA Svc 1.000 · Ctrl thru 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION276 act + 184 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†78

AVG/OBP/SLG.215 / .297 / .344

PA184

HR4

K%32

BB%9

BABIP304

ISO129

MLB%30%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025-2026

CONTACT45

Whiff%

1614.9%

xwOBA

900.448

POWER55

Barrel%

9016.5

Avg EV

9092.5

Bat Spd

6973.4

EYE49

Chase%

7427.0%

SPEED35

scouting grade only

DEFENSE45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.3M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$10M	+$9M
2028	Arb-1	$2M	+1.4	$10M	+$8M
2029	Arb-2	$4M	+1.3	$8M	+$5M
2030	Arb-3	$6M	+1.1	$6M	+$3M
Totals		$13M		$34M	+$25M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	22	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	434	404	85	11	1	6	27	143	2	3	1	210	263	287	550	77	309	33	6	247	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	434	382	99	15	1	8	49	108	2	3	1	259	346	366	713	107	341	25	11	325	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA	2 teams	—	506	459	100	26	0	17	41	173	5	8	1	218	289	386	675	168	307	34	8	292	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA	2 teams	—	506	434	121	31	0	21	66	128	5	8	1	279	380	495	876	217	350	25	13	387	154	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA	3 teams	—	593	543	127	25	1	19	38	205	6	6	0	234	291	389	680	155	332	35	6	297	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA	3 teams	—	593	523	145	29	2	22	58	155	6	6	0	277	356	467	823	189	349	26	10	362	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	25	AAA	PIT	—	276	242	49	9	2	3	32	83	2	0	0	202	301	293	594	91	295	30	12	269	64	-11	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.2
YTD	25	AAA	PIT	—	276	228	52	10	2	4	46	69	2	0	0	228	362	342	704	114	310	25	17	328	109	+3	+0	+0	+5	+8	1.6
ROS	25	AAA	PIT	30%	184	163	35	7	1	4	17	58	2	1	0	215	297	344	640	129	299	32	9	287	78	-5	+0	-0	+3	+5	0.4
ROS	25	MLB	PIT	30%	55	50	10	2	0	1	5	17	0	0	0	200	273	300	573	100	298	31	9	280	73	-2	+0	-0	+1	+2	0.1
FULL	25	AAA	PIT	—	331	292	59	11	2	4	37	100	2	0	0	202	296	295	591	92	293	30	11	271	65	-13	+0	-0	+6	+9	0.2
TOT	25	AAA	PIT	—	460	405	84	16	3	7	49	141	4	1	0	207	299	314	613	106	298	31	11	276	70	-16	+0	-0	+8	+13	0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	26	MLB	PIT	56%	415	370	82	16	2	11	38	127	4	2	0	222	301	365	666	143	298	31	9	296	85	-7	+0	-0	+7	+12	1.3
2028	27	MLB	PIT	66%	421	375	83	16	2	11	39	126	4	2	0	221	301	363	664	141	297	30	9	298	86	-6	+0	-0	+8	+12	1.4
2029	28	MLB	PIT	71%	422	376	83	16	2	11	39	126	4	2	0	221	301	362	662	141	296	30	9	299	87	-6	+0	-1	+8	+12	1.3
2030	29	MLB	PIT	71%	414	368	82	16	2	11	39	123	4	2	0	223	304	367	671	144	295	30	9	297	86	-7	+0	-2	+7	+12	1.1
2031	30	MLB	PIT	71%	407	363	80	15	2	11	38	122	3	2	0	220	300	364	663	143	294	30	9	294	83	-8	+0	-2	+7	+12	1.0
2032	31	MLB	PIT	72%	380	339	73	14	1	10	35	115	3	1	0	215	294	351	645	136	292	30	9	290	80	-8	+0	-3	+7	+11	0.7
2027	26	MLB	PIT	56%	233	208	46	9	1	6	21	71	2	1	0	221	299	361	659	139	296	30	9	289	79	-5	+0	-0	+4	+7	0.6
2028	27	MLB	PIT	66%	276	247	53	10	1	7	25	83	2	2	0	215	292	348	640	134	296	30	9	291	81	-6	+0	-0	+5	+8	0.7
2029	28	MLB	PIT	71%	298	265	58	11	1	8	28	89	3	2	0	219	301	358	659	140	295	30	9	291	81	-6	+0	-1	+5	+8	0.7
2030	29	MLB	PIT	71%	294	262	57	11	1	8	27	88	3	1	0	218	298	359	657	141	294	30	9	290	80	-7	+0	-1	+5	+8	0.6
2031	30	MLB	PIT	71%	291	260	57	11	1	8	27	88	2	1	0	219	298	362	659	142	293	30	9	287	78	-7	+0	-2	+5	+8	0.5
2032	31	MLB	PIT	72%	272	243	52	10	1	7	25	83	2	1	0	214	293	350	642	136	290	31	9	283	75	-8	+0	-2	+5	+8	0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1736	1550	336	66	6	45	160	526	14	8	0	217	296	354	650	137	295	30	9	288	79	-42	+2	-5	+20	+49	2.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	580	126	25	2	17	60	197	5	3	0	217	296	355	651	138	296	30	9	288	79	-16	+1	-2	+8	+18	0.9
Career	—			—	4176	3760	830	162	14	111	351	1318	37	29	2	221	294	360	653	139	306	32	8	290	80	-94	+5	-7	+53	+118	7.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	585	129	25	2	17	55	205	6	5	0	221	294	357	651	137	306	32	8	290	80	-15	+1	-1	+8	+18	1.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	22	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	434	382	99	15	1	8	49	108	2	3	1	259	346	366	713	107	341	25	11	325	107	+3	+0	—	—	+12	1.6
2024	23	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	273	241	66	14	0	15	28	73	4	6	0	274	359	519	878	245	333	27	10	385	153	+16	+1	—	—	+8	2.6
2024	23	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	233	193	55	17	0	6	38	55	1	2	1	285	405	466	871	181	368	24	16	389	155	+15	+0	—	—	+7	2.2
2025	24	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	17	15	3	2	0	0	2	7	0	0	0	200	294	333	627	133	375	41	12	286	77	-0	+0	+0	-11	+0	-1.0
2025	24	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	206	173	46	4	1	7	26	54	4	0	0	266	374	422	796	156	339	26	13	355	130	+7	+0	—	—	+6	1.3
2025	24	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	370	335	96	23	1	15	30	94	2	6	0	287	349	496	844	209	354	25	8	369	140	+17	+1	—	—	+10	2.9
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	17	15	3	2	0	0	2	7	0	0	0	200	294	333	627	133	375	41	12	286	77	-0	+0	+0	-11	+0	-1.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#1John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#2Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	9	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
	/162	664	23	1	235	308	414	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16
#3Khalil Greenelast yr '09 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,835 PA	7	2,835	90	25	245	302	422	+30	+14	13.0	13.0
	/162	664	21	6	245	302	422	+7.1	+3.2	3.0	pk7: 13
#4Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#5Kelly Shoppachlast yr '13 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,839 PA	8	1,839	70	1	225	314	417	+33	+14	11.3	11.5
	/162	664	25	0	225	314	417	+11.9	+5.0	4.1	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	4	1,761	47	9	220	296	361	+31	+1	5.0	5.0
	/162	664	18	3	220	296	361	+11.9	+0.4	1.9	pk7: 5
#6J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Rafael Flores Jr. (OGILVIE)	25	45	55	35	49	207/299/314	106	298	7	1	31%	11%	70	+0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Luke Montz 2009 · MLB	26	42→46	49→55	41→40	45	216/276/363	147	273	17	3	28%	7%	77	+0.1	204/273/344	140	253	17	4	26%	8%	71	-0.3	211/285/427	216	246	30	4	28%	8%	97	+0.9
✕Chance Sisco 2020 · MLB	25	44→54	51→50	41→40	44	222/308/378	155	297	19	3	30%	8%	95	+1.4	207/300/356	149	279	17	4	30%	9%	86	+0.8	174/281/301	128	241	13	0	31%	10%	63	-0.3
✕Matthew Brown 2008 · AAA	25	44→49	50→55	39→45	42	225/282/383	158	291	17	6	28%	6%	85	+0.7	217/272/372	155	278	17	6	28%	6%	77	+0.1	204/258/354	151	260	16	5	28%	6%	64	-0.5
✕Dilson Herrera 2019 · MLB	25	44→54	48→50	38→50	40	223/274/360	137	292	17	5	29%	6%	76	+0.0	206/266/378	172	276	23	9	33%	6%	77	+0.1	177/242/362	185	225	26	9	35%	6%	60	-0.5
✕Isan Díaz 2022 · MLB	26	42	48→55	38→45	48	214/291/356	142	281	16	4	29%	9%	82	+0.5	218/292/403	185	293	25	9	33%	9%	95	+1.4	193/273/381	188	236	29	8	32%	9%	77	+0.1
✕Riley Adams 2023 · MLB	27	41→42	50	42→40	43	209/294/364	155	295	17	3	34%	8%	85	+0.7	225/296/383	158	313	17	4	32%	7%	91	+1.1	219/289/370	151	311	17	2	33%	7%	82	+0.2
✕Ryan Casteel 2016 · AAA	25	46→48	52→55	44→40	38	239/277/400	161	309	21	5	30%	5%	87	+0.8	221/259/334	113	310	11	5	31%	5%	61	-1.0	194/252/391	198	247	28	0	34%	7%	70	-0.2
✕Jarrod Saltalamacchia 2010 · MLB	25	50→53	49→60	36→40	46	244/310/389	144	327	16	3	29%	8%	97	+1.5	224/286/411	187	285	23	3	29%	7%	94	+1.3	232/311/417	185	312	22	2	31%	10%	101	+1.4
✕Dusty Ryan 2010 · MLB	25	44→46	51→50	45→40	42	220/288/376	156	317	19	5	35%	8%	85	+0.7	212/287/355	143	332	14	5	37%	9%	79	+0.3	193/276/333	141	312	13	2	39%	9%	67	-0.2
✕Wilin Rosario 2014 · MLB	25	45→49	54→60	43→45	40	241/275/410	169	281	23	6	24%	4%	89	+0.9	234/271/374	140	277	16	5	22%	5%	77	+0.1	236/269/379	143	273	18	3	21%	4%	72	-0.1
✕Ryan Lavarnway 2013 · MLB	25	44→45	49→55	45→30	46	227/290/370	143	279	17	2	25%	7%	85	+0.7	236/298/339	103	290	10	3	21%	7%	79	+0.3	231/300/392	161	282	20	0	25%	7%	90	+0.4
✕Carter Kieboom 2023 · MLB	25	44→50	45→50	43→45	52	220/315/340	120	274	14	5	24%	10%	89	+0.9	222/293/341	119	290	14	7	27%	8%	78	+0.2	231/290/331	100	300	10	7	25%	7%	70	-0.2
✕Carlos M. Rodriguez 2007 · AAA	25	43→42	45→55	41→40	40	214/272/329	115	303	14	6	33%	7%	66	-0.6	232/290/339	107	329	12	5	31%	7%	76	+0.0	217/279/402	185	301	27	2	36%	7%	85	+0.3
✕Zach Lutz 2011 · AAA	25	46→48	52→55	39→30	47	235/309/400	165	302	19	3	28%	9%	100	+1.7	239/308/392	153	330	17	2	31%	8%	98	+1.6	232/306/372	140	327	15	0	31%	9%	89	+0.6
✕Drew Ellis 2021 · AA	25	40→37	48→55	37→40	47	206/278/348	141	263	16	3	28%	8%	74	-0.1	203/294/382	179	265	20	5	30%	10%	90	+1.0	187/284/370	183	237	21	4	30%	10%	81	+0.3
✕Devin Mann 2022 · AA	25	39→46	52→55	43→45	43	208/281/373	165	273	19	7	31%	7%	82	+0.5	221/299/382	161	292	18	5	29%	9%	92	+1.2	218/299/375	157	288	18	3	29%	9%	87	+0.6
✕Ronaldo Hernández 2023 · AAA	25	42→44	54→55	35→45	37	227/259/399	172	264	23	2	25%	3%	79	+0.3	213/264/355	142	248	19	4	23%	5%	70	-0.3	196/255/321	124	227	17	2	22%	6%	55	-0.6
✕Joey Bart 2023 · MLB	26	49	51→55	45→40	40	239/305/392	153	347	20	5	35%	7%	97	+1.5	239/317/374	135	326	16	4	29%	8%	97	+1.5	253/338/392	139	338	17	1	28%	9%	109	+1.1
✕Scott Manea 2022 · AA	26	45→41	47→45	36→30	47	224/307/355	131	303	15	4	30%	9%	88	+0.9	205/291/304	99	312	9	5	34%	9%	68	-0.5	165/265/238	73	266	6	0	36%	10%	39	-1.4
✕Luis Torrens 2022 · MLB	26	46→47	54→55	45→30	46	238/296/415	177	289	22	3	26%	8%	98	+1.6	234/288/383	149	306	17	3	28%	7%	87	+0.8	227/280/355	128	284	13	2	24%	6%	75	+0.0