Each row shows the player's YTD 2026 actual rate (YTD) vs the current build's projected full-season rate (PROJ).
Score = (YTD − PROJ) × √(sample size) — sample-weighted gap. Positive = beating projection; negative = falling short.
Hitters use OPS; pitchers use ERA (sign flipped — lower ERA = improvement).
Min 80 PA (hitters) / 15 IP (pitchers). Generated 2026-06-15 17:09.
| # | Player | YTD OPS | PROJ | Δ OPS | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Jordan Walker  STL · 190 PA · 13 HR | 0.977 | 0.808 | +0.169 | +2.3 |
| 2 |  Ben Rice  NYY · 167 PA · 14 HR | 1.089 | 0.949 | +0.140 | +1.8 |
| 3 |  Brice Turang  MIL · 181 PA · 6 HR | 0.922 | 0.791 | +0.131 | +1.8 |
| 4 |  Miguel Vargas  CWS · 191 PA · 11 HR | 0.890 | 0.767 | +0.123 | +1.7 |
| 5 |  Ildemaro Vargas  ARI · 155 PA · 7 HR | 0.920 | 0.784 | +0.136 | +1.7 |
| 6 |  Xavier Edwards  MIA · 194 PA · 4 HR | 0.874 | 0.753 | +0.121 | +1.7 |
| 7 |  Shea Langeliers  OAK · 183 PA · 12 HR | 1.008 | 0.884 | +0.124 | +1.7 |
| 8 |  Mickey Moniak  COL · 149 PA · 12 HR | 1.020 | 0.893 | +0.127 | +1.6 |
| 9 |  CJ Abrams  WSH · 191 PA · 9 HR | 0.933 | 0.825 | +0.108 | +1.5 |
| 10 |  Carlos Cortes OAK · 110 PA · 4 HR | 0.956 | 0.820 | +0.136 | +1.4 |
| 11 |  Otto Lopez MIA · 190 PA · 4 HR | 0.866 | 0.769 | +0.097 | +1.3 |
| 12 |  Ryan Jeffers  MIN · 139 PA · 6 HR | 0.923 | 0.810 | +0.113 | +1.3 |
| 13 |  Angel Martínez  CLE · 151 PA · 7 HR | 0.785 | 0.677 | +0.108 | +1.3 |
| 14 |  Oswald Peraza  LAA · 126 PA · 5 HR | 0.801 | 0.685 | +0.116 | +1.3 |
| 15 |  Matt Olson  ATL · 200 PA · 14 HR | 0.968 | 0.883 | +0.085 | +1.2 |
| 16 |  Yordan Alvarez  HOU · 204 PA · 15 HR | 1.084 | 1.002 | +0.082 | +1.2 |
| 17 |  Luke Raley  SEA · 127 PA · 10 HR | 0.929 | 0.826 | +0.103 | +1.2 |
| 18 |  Ezequiel Duran  TEX · 122 PA · 3 HR | 0.801 | 0.699 | +0.102 | +1.1 |
| 19 |  Andy Pages  LAD · 180 PA · 10 HR | 0.892 | 0.810 | +0.082 | +1.1 |
| 20 |  Drake Baldwin ATL · 206 PA · 13 HR | 0.933 | 0.860 | +0.073 | +1.1 |
| 21 |  Josh Jung TEX · 170 PA · 5 HR | 0.849 | 0.771 | +0.078 | +1.0 |
| 22 |  Zack Gelof OAK · 85 PA · 5 HR | 0.820 | 0.716 | +0.104 | +1.0 |
| 23 |  Christian Walker HOU · 189 PA · 11 HR | 0.868 | 0.799 | +0.069 | +0.9 |
| 24 |  Dominic Smith ATL · 94 PA · 4 HR | 0.900 | 0.803 | +0.097 | +0.9 |
| 25 |  Liam Hicks MIA · 160 PA · 9 HR | 0.854 | 0.781 | +0.073 | +0.9 |
| 26 |  Samuel Basallo  BAL · 138 PA · 6 HR | 0.833 | 0.757 | +0.076 | +0.9 |
| 27 |  Colson Montgomery CWS · 181 PA · 13 HR | 0.875 | 0.809 | +0.066 | +0.9 |
| 28 |  Curtis Mead WSH · 110 PA · 4 HR | 0.789 | 0.708 | +0.081 | +0.8 |
| 29 |  Austin Martin MIN · 137 PA · 1 HR | 0.849 | 0.777 | +0.072 | +0.8 |
| 30 |  Riley Greene  DET · 191 PA · 4 HR | 0.904 | 0.843 | +0.061 | +0.8 |
| # | Player | YTD OPS | PROJ | Δ OPS | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Fernando Tatis Jr.  SD · 186 PA · 0 HR | 0.586 | 0.770 | -0.184 | -2.5 |
| 2 |  Cal Raleigh SEA · 181 PA · 7 HR | 0.560 | 0.745 | -0.185 | -2.5 |
| 3 |  Ketel Marte ARI · 180 PA · 5 HR | 0.637 | 0.815 | -0.178 | -2.4 |
| 4 |  Corey Seager TEX · 182 PA · 7 HR | 0.638 | 0.804 | -0.166 | -2.2 |
| 5 |  Marcell Ozuna  PIT · 166 PA · 5 HR | 0.582 | 0.756 | -0.174 | -2.2 |
| 6 |  Jarren Duran  BOS · 171 PA · 4 HR | 0.537 | 0.703 | -0.166 | -2.2 |
| 7 |  Bo Bichette  NYM · 195 PA · 2 HR | 0.540 | 0.693 | -0.153 | -2.1 |
| 8 |  George Springer  TOR · 115 PA · 2 HR | 0.566 | 0.756 | -0.190 | -2.0 |
| 9 |  Edgar Quero CWS · 103 PA · 0 HR | 0.410 | 0.610 | -0.200 | -2.0 |
| 10 |  Alec Bohm  PHI · 170 PA · 3 HR | 0.551 | 0.699 | -0.148 | -1.9 |
| 11 |  Caleb Durbin BOS · 154 PA · 1 HR | 0.495 | 0.646 | -0.151 | -1.9 |
| 12 |  Jake Cronenworth SD · 114 PA · 1 HR | 0.468 | 0.642 | -0.174 | -1.9 |
| 13 |  Matt Wallner MIN · 135 PA · 4 HR | 0.551 | 0.707 | -0.156 | -1.8 |
| 14 |  Gunnar Henderson BAL · 207 PA · 9 HR | 0.649 | 0.774 | -0.125 | -1.8 |
| 15 |  Brent Rooker OAK · 120 PA · 5 HR | 0.639 | 0.803 | -0.164 | -1.8 |
| 16 |  Patrick Bailey CLE · 163 PA · 2 HR | 0.389 | 0.529 | -0.140 | -1.8 |
| 17 |  Colton Cowser BAL · 90 PA · 0 HR | 0.464 | 0.642 | -0.178 | -1.7 |
| 18 |  Wenceel Pérez DET · 98 PA · 2 HR | 0.464 | 0.634 | -0.170 | -1.7 |
| 19 |  Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL · 152 PA · 2 HR | 0.740 | 0.874 | -0.134 | -1.6 |
| 20 |  Jackson Merrill SD · 182 PA · 4 HR | 0.607 | 0.728 | -0.121 | -1.6 |
| 21 |  Tyler Stephenson  CIN · 128 PA · 3 HR | 0.571 | 0.710 | -0.139 | -1.6 |
| 22 |  Matt Chapman  SF · 184 PA · 1 HR | 0.589 | 0.703 | -0.114 | -1.6 |
| 23 |  Luisangel Acuña CWS · 92 PA · 0 HR | 0.435 | 0.593 | -0.158 | -1.5 |
| 24 |  Lawrence Butler OAK · 140 PA · 3 HR | 0.555 | 0.681 | -0.126 | -1.5 |
| 25 |  Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ARI · 83 PA · 0 HR | 0.559 | 0.723 | -0.164 | -1.5 |
| 26 |  Manny Machado SD · 178 PA · 6 HR | 0.611 | 0.721 | -0.110 | -1.5 |
| 27 |  Rafael Devers SF · 184 PA · 5 HR | 0.678 | 0.784 | -0.106 | -1.4 |
| 28 |  Bo Naylor CLE · 90 PA · 2 HR | 0.438 | 0.589 | -0.151 | -1.4 |
| 29 |  Trea Turner PHI · 201 PA · 4 HR | 0.633 | 0.734 | -0.101 | -1.4 |
| 30 |  Salvador Perez  KC · 185 PA · 6 HR | 0.560 | 0.665 | -0.105 | -1.4 |
| # | Pitcher | YTD ERA | PROJ | Δ ERA | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Walbert Urena LAA · 55.3 IP · 8.9 K/9 | 2.44 | 4.41 | +1.97 | +14.7 |
| 2 |  Shohei Ohtani LAD · 67.7 IP · 9.7 K/9 | 1.06 | 2.82 | +1.76 | +14.5 |
| 3 |  Tyler Phillips MIA · 48.3 IP · 7.6 K/9 | 1.86 | 3.94 | +2.08 | +14.5 |
| 4 |  Antonio Senzatela COL · 38.3 IP · 7.5 K/9 | 2.11 | 4.42 | +2.31 | +14.3 |
| 5 |  Eduardo Rodriguez ARI · 81.3 IP · 6.6 K/9 | 2.55 | 4.09 | +1.54 | +13.9 |
| 6 |  Louis Varland TOR · 37.7 IP · 11.7 K/9 | 0.96 | 3.20 | +2.24 | +13.8 |
| 7 |  Robert Suarez ATL · 30.7 IP · 7.6 K/9 | 0.59 | 2.95 | +2.36 | +13.1 |
| 8 |  Ben Brown  CHC · 62.0 IP · 8.9 K/9 | 1.74 | 3.40 | +1.66 | +13.1 |
| 9 |  Ryan Rolison CHC · 25.3 IP · 8.5 K/9 | 2.13 | 4.65 | +2.52 | +12.7 |
| 10 |  Orlando Ribalta WSH · 20.0 IP · 6.3 K/9 | 1.80 | 4.58 | +2.78 | +12.4 |
| 11 |  Gordon Graceffo STL · 33.7 IP · 4.5 K/9 | 2.14 | 4.27 | +2.13 | +12.4 |
| 12 |  Bryce Miller SEA · 35.0 IP · 9.3 K/9 | 1.54 | 3.60 | +2.06 | +12.2 |
| 13 |  Kyle Finnegan DET · 32.7 IP · 5.5 K/9 | 1.93 | 4.02 | +2.09 | +11.9 |
| 14 |  Dylan Dodd ATL · 15.3 IP · 10.6 K/9 | 1.17 | 4.05 | +2.88 | +11.3 |
| 15 |  Cal Quantrill TEX · 26.7 IP · 6.1 K/9 | 2.36 | 4.53 | +2.17 | +11.2 |
| 16 |  Brad Lord WSH · 45.0 IP · 7.4 K/9 | 2.20 | 3.87 | +1.67 | +11.2 |
| 17 |  DL Hall MIL · 31.0 IP · 9.3 K/9 | 2.03 | 4.03 | +2.00 | +11.1 |
| 18 |  Chase Silseth LAA · 25.3 IP · 9.6 K/9 | 1.78 | 3.96 | +2.18 | +11.0 |
| 19 |  Rico Garcia BAL · 29.7 IP · 9.7 K/9 | 1.82 | 3.80 | +1.98 | +10.8 |
| 20 |  Sam Aldegheri LAA · 17.0 IP · 6.4 K/9 | 2.12 | 4.65 | +2.53 | +10.4 |
| 21 |  Wandy Peralta SD · 33.0 IP · 6.3 K/9 | 2.18 | 3.97 | +1.79 | +10.3 |
| 22 |  Taylor Clarke ARI · 29.7 IP · 4.9 K/9 | 2.12 | 4.00 | +1.88 | +10.2 |
| 23 |  Yuki Matsui SD · 20.7 IP · 10.0 K/9 | 1.74 | 3.96 | +2.22 | +10.1 |
| 24 |  Colin Holderman CLE · 26.0 IP · 10.4 K/9 | 1.73 | 3.70 | +1.97 | +10.1 |
| 25 |  Jacob Latz TEX · 33.3 IP · 9.4 K/9 | 1.62 | 3.33 | +1.71 | +9.9 |
| 26 |  Matt Brash SEA · 16.7 IP · 8.1 K/9 | 0.54 | 2.94 | +2.40 | +9.8 |
| 27 |  Cam Schlittler NYY · 89.0 IP · 9.7 K/9 | 1.82 | 2.86 | +1.04 | +9.8 |
| 28 |  Daniel Lynch IV KC · 30.0 IP · 8.7 K/9 | 1.80 | 3.59 | +1.79 | +9.8 |
| 29 |  Michael McGreevy STL · 78.3 IP · 5.9 K/9 | 2.99 | 4.09 | +1.10 | +9.7 |
| 30 |  Nick Martinez  TB · 77.7 IP · 5.1 K/9 | 2.43 | 3.53 | +1.10 | +9.7 |
| # | Pitcher | YTD ERA | PROJ | Δ ERA | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Michael Lorenzen COL · 65.7 IP · 7.5 K/9 | 7.54 | 4.27 | -3.27 | -26.5 |
| 2 |  Kyle Freeland COL · 58.7 IP · 7.5 K/9 | 7.98 | 4.54 | -3.44 | -26.4 |
| 3 |  Simeon Woods Richardson TOR · 99.3 IP · 5.0 K/9 | 7.43 | 4.80 | -2.63 | -26.2 |
| 4 |  Max Scherzer TOR · 22.0 IP · 5.7 K/9 | 10.23 | 4.84 | -5.39 | -25.3 |
| 5 |  Kodai Senga NYM · 20.0 IP · 10.3 K/9 | 9.00 | 3.96 | -5.04 | -22.5 |
| 6 |  Matt Svanson STL · 30.3 IP · 8.9 K/9 | 7.42 | 3.40 | -4.02 | -22.1 |
| 7 |  Jason Alexander HOU · 18.3 IP · 6.9 K/9 | 9.33 | 4.33 | -5.00 | -21.4 |
| 8 |  Grayson Rodriguez LAA · 25.7 IP · 8.4 K/9 | 8.06 | 3.86 | -4.20 | -21.3 |
| 9 |  Matt Waldron SD · 23.3 IP · 8.5 K/9 | 8.49 | 4.23 | -4.26 | -20.6 |
| 10 |  Luis García MIN · 21.3 IP · 4.2 K/9 | 8.44 | 4.05 | -4.39 | -20.3 |
| 11 |  Zach Agnos COL · 42.7 IP · 6.3 K/9 | 7.80 | 4.73 | -3.07 | -20.1 |
| 12 |  Taijuan Walker PHI · 22.7 IP · 6.8 K/9 | 9.13 | 5.10 | -4.03 | -19.2 |
| 13 |  Justin Topa MIN · 19.0 IP · 5.7 K/9 | 8.05 | 3.83 | -4.22 | -18.4 |
| 14 |  Garrett Crochet BOS · 30.0 IP · 11.1 K/9 | 6.30 | 3.09 | -3.21 | -17.6 |
| 15 |  Chris Paddack CIN · 68.0 IP · 7.3 K/9 | 6.75 | 4.63 | -2.12 | -17.5 |
| 16 |  Jack Perkins OAK · 36.0 IP · 10.8 K/9 | 6.25 | 3.42 | -2.83 | -17.0 |
| 17 |  Tyler Mahle SF · 56.7 IP · 9.1 K/9 | 6.04 | 3.79 | -2.25 | -16.9 |
| 18 |  David Peterson NYM · 61.0 IP · 8.4 K/9 | 5.75 | 3.59 | -2.16 | -16.9 |
| 19 |  Victor Vodnik COL · 18.0 IP · 8.0 K/9 | 8.00 | 4.08 | -3.92 | -16.6 |
| 20 |  Brayan Bello BOS · 61.0 IP · 6.5 K/9 | 6.34 | 4.25 | -2.09 | -16.3 |
| 21 |  Ryan Weiss HOU · 26.0 IP · 10.4 K/9 | 7.62 | 4.48 | -3.14 | -16.0 |
| 22 |  Trevor Rogers BAL · 66.0 IP · 6.5 K/9 | 5.86 | 3.89 | -1.97 | -16.0 |
| 23 |  Griffin Canning SD · 37.7 IP · 9.3 K/9 | 7.17 | 4.59 | -2.58 | -15.8 |
| 24 |  Will Vest DET · 20.7 IP · 10.0 K/9 | 6.53 | 3.05 | -3.48 | -15.8 |
| 25 |  Andrés Muñoz SEA · 24.3 IP · 13.7 K/9 | 5.92 | 2.72 | -3.20 | -15.8 |
| 26 |  Jacob Lopez OAK · 50.7 IP · 6.8 K/9 | 6.75 | 4.60 | -2.15 | -15.3 |
| 27 |  Bryan Abreu HOU · 23.3 IP · 12.0 K/9 | 6.56 | 3.40 | -3.16 | -15.2 |
| 28 |  Keegan Akin BAL · 19.7 IP · 5.9 K/9 | 7.32 | 3.91 | -3.41 | -15.1 |
| 29 |  José Suarez OAK · 43.0 IP · 10.7 K/9 | 6.28 | 3.98 | -2.30 | -15.1 |
| 30 |  Juan Mejia COL · 31.7 IP · 10.2 K/9 | 5.97 | 3.32 | -2.65 | -14.9 |