Each row shows the player's YTD 2026 actual rate (YTD) vs the current build's projected full-season rate (PROJ).
Score = (YTD − PROJ) × √(sample size) — sample-weighted gap. Positive = beating projection; negative = falling short.
Hitters use OPS; pitchers use ERA (sign flipped — lower ERA = improvement).
Min 80 PA (hitters) / 15 IP (pitchers). Generated 2026-07-30 07:05.
| # | Player | YTD OPS | PROJ | Δ OPS | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Esmerlyn Valdez  PIT · 155 PA · 14 HR | 1.043 | 0.913 | +0.130 | +1.6 |
| 2 |  Ryan Jeffers  MIN · 190 PA · 9 HR | 0.928 | 0.851 | +0.077 | +1.1 |
| 3 |  Austin Hedges  CLE · 162 PA · 4 HR | 0.757 | 0.675 | +0.082 | +1.0 |
| 4 |  Ty France  SD · 282 PA · 16 HR | 0.877 | 0.815 | +0.062 | +1.0 |
| 5 |  Endy Rodríguez PIT · 130 PA · 5 HR | 0.834 | 0.743 | +0.091 | +1.0 |
| 6 |  CJ Abrams  WSH · 449 PA · 27 HR | 0.926 | 0.880 | +0.046 | +1.0 |
| 7 |  Luis Campusano SD · 107 PA · 4 HR | 0.898 | 0.805 | +0.093 | +1.0 |
| 8 |  Andrew Vaughn  MIL · 204 PA · 4 HR | 0.883 | 0.817 | +0.066 | +0.9 |
| 9 |  Yordan Alvarez  HOU · 474 PA · 35 HR | 1.073 | 1.033 | +0.040 | +0.9 |
| 10 |  Jordan Walker  STL · 451 PA · 22 HR | 0.844 | 0.804 | +0.040 | +0.8 |
| 11 |  Cole Carrigg  COL · 159 PA · 5 HR | 0.892 | 0.825 | +0.067 | +0.8 |
| 12 |  Otto Lopez  MIA · 455 PA · 9 HR | 0.853 | 0.814 | +0.039 | +0.8 |
| 13 |  Joey Wiemer WSH · 83 PA · 3 HR | 0.912 | 0.822 | +0.090 | +0.8 |
| 14 |  Samad Taylor SD · 102 PA · 1 HR | 0.808 | 0.728 | +0.080 | +0.8 |
| 15 |  Pedro Ramírez  CHC · 99 PA · 1 HR | 0.828 | 0.747 | +0.081 | +0.8 |
| 16 |  Cooper Pratt MIL · 128 PA · 2 HR | 0.762 | 0.690 | +0.072 | +0.8 |
| 17 |  Esteury Ruiz MIA · 142 PA · 5 HR | 0.839 | 0.773 | +0.066 | +0.8 |
| 18 |  Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC · 475 PA · 24 HR | 0.920 | 0.885 | +0.035 | +0.8 |
| 19 |  Ezequiel Duran  TEX · 373 PA · 12 HR | 0.774 | 0.735 | +0.039 | +0.8 |
| 20 |  Curtis Mead  BOS · 329 PA · 17 HR | 0.851 | 0.810 | +0.041 | +0.7 |
| 21 |  Zack Gelof  OAK · 247 PA · 11 HR | 0.802 | 0.756 | +0.046 | +0.7 |
| 22 |  Nick Gonzales PIT · 426 PA · 6 HR | 0.778 | 0.744 | +0.034 | +0.7 |
| 23 |  Griffin Conine MIA · 127 PA · 9 HR | 0.925 | 0.864 | +0.061 | +0.7 |
| 24 |  Jeremy Peña HOU · 264 PA · 12 HR | 0.866 | 0.825 | +0.041 | +0.7 |
| 25 |  Kyle Karros COL · 356 PA · 9 HR | 0.789 | 0.754 | +0.035 | +0.7 |
| 26 |  Tyrone Taylor  NYM · 155 PA · 9 HR | 0.781 | 0.729 | +0.052 | +0.7 |
| 27 |  Tommy Edman  LAD · 121 PA · 2 HR | 0.884 | 0.826 | +0.058 | +0.6 |
| 28 |  Trevor Larnach MIN · 322 PA · 8 HR | 0.825 | 0.790 | +0.035 | +0.6 |
| 29 |  Nicky Lopez TEX · 170 PA · 1 HR | 0.686 | 0.638 | +0.048 | +0.6 |
| 30 |  Jake Bauers MIL · 386 PA · 18 HR | 0.861 | 0.830 | +0.031 | +0.6 |
| # | Player | YTD OPS | PROJ | Δ OPS | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ha-Seong Kim  ATL · 82 PA · 0 HR | 0.239 | 0.510 | -0.271 | -2.5 |
| 2 |  Jorge Polanco NYM · 105 PA · 1 HR | 0.418 | 0.636 | -0.218 | -2.2 |
| 3 |  Cal Raleigh  SEA · 324 PA · 11 HR | 0.576 | 0.660 | -0.084 | -1.5 |
| 4 |  Matt Wallner MIN · 135 PA · 4 HR | 0.551 | 0.680 | -0.129 | -1.5 |
| 5 |  Marcell Ozuna PIT · 276 PA · 8 HR | 0.610 | 0.699 | -0.089 | -1.5 |
| 6 |  TJ Friedl  CIN · 233 PA · 3 HR | 0.506 | 0.597 | -0.091 | -1.4 |
| 7 |  Lourdes Gurriel Jr.  ARI · 189 PA · 2 HR | 0.541 | 0.640 | -0.099 | -1.4 |
| 8 |  Corey Seager TEX · 219 PA · 10 HR | 0.667 | 0.757 | -0.090 | -1.3 |
| 9 |  Ke'Bryan Hayes CIN · 158 PA · 3 HR | 0.426 | 0.530 | -0.104 | -1.3 |
| 10 |  Lenyn Sosa  TOR · 117 PA · 1 HR | 0.490 | 0.608 | -0.118 | -1.3 |
| 11 |  Pavin Smith ARI · 89 PA · 1 HR | 0.428 | 0.563 | -0.135 | -1.3 |
| 12 |  Andrew McCutchen TEX · 83 PA · 1 HR | 0.537 | 0.672 | -0.135 | -1.2 |
| 13 |  Austin Wells  NYY · 245 PA · 7 HR | 0.525 | 0.599 | -0.074 | -1.2 |
| 14 |  Rob Refsnyder SEA · 126 PA · 4 HR | 0.467 | 0.570 | -0.103 | -1.2 |
| 15 |  Aaron Judge NYY · 261 PA · 17 HR | 0.907 | 0.979 | -0.072 | -1.2 |
| 16 |  Rafael Marchán  PHI · 92 PA · 2 HR | 0.312 | 0.430 | -0.118 | -1.1 |
| 17 |  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR · 435 PA · 6 HR | 0.702 | 0.756 | -0.054 | -1.1 |
| 18 |  Edgar Quero  CWS · 186 PA · 2 HR | 0.477 | 0.559 | -0.082 | -1.1 |
| 19 |  Jarren Duran BOS · 425 PA · 13 HR | 0.595 | 0.649 | -0.054 | -1.1 |
| 20 |  Brent Rooker OAK · 203 PA · 10 HR | 0.670 | 0.747 | -0.077 | -1.1 |
| 21 |  Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL · 248 PA · 7 HR | 0.766 | 0.836 | -0.070 | -1.1 |
| 22 |  Nick Castellanos SD · 122 PA · 4 HR | 0.560 | 0.660 | -0.100 | -1.1 |
| 23 |  Brenton Doyle COL · 122 PA · 1 HR | 0.549 | 0.641 | -0.092 | -1.0 |
| 24 |  Gunnar Henderson  BAL · 496 PA · 18 HR | 0.685 | 0.728 | -0.043 | -1.0 |
| 25 |  Mookie Betts LAD · 305 PA · 13 HR | 0.692 | 0.747 | -0.055 | -1.0 |
| 26 |  Carlos Narváez BOS · 189 PA · 3 HR | 0.544 | 0.613 | -0.069 | -0.9 |
| 27 |  Ramón Laureano SD · 206 PA · 7 HR | 0.660 | 0.725 | -0.065 | -0.9 |
| 28 |  Josh Smith TEX · 152 PA · 1 HR | 0.570 | 0.645 | -0.075 | -0.9 |
| 29 |  Kyle Tucker LAD · 421 PA · 9 HR | 0.704 | 0.749 | -0.045 | -0.9 |
| 30 |  Austin Riley ATL · 438 PA · 12 HR | 0.634 | 0.678 | -0.044 | -0.9 |
| # | Pitcher | YTD ERA | PROJ | Δ ERA | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Randy Dobnak  KC · 26.0 IP · 4.8 K/9 | 1.04 | 4.83 | +3.79 | +19.3 |
| 2 |  Eduardo Rodriguez ARI · 130.7 IP · 6.1 K/9 | 2.48 | 4.09 | +1.61 | +18.4 |
| 3 |  Troy Melton  DET · 67.0 IP · 8.1 K/9 | 1.75 | 3.90 | +2.15 | +17.6 |
| 4 |  Louis Varland TOR · 55.0 IP · 11.9 K/9 | 0.98 | 2.96 | +1.98 | +14.7 |
| 5 |  Paul Blackburn NYY · 58.7 IP · 6.8 K/9 | 2.15 | 4.06 | +1.91 | +14.6 |
| 6 |  Walbert Urena  LAA · 93.3 IP · 8.5 K/9 | 2.70 | 4.18 | +1.48 | +14.3 |
| 7 |  Robert Suarez ATL · 32.0 IP · 7.3 K/9 | 0.56 | 3.01 | +2.45 | +13.9 |
| 8 |  Taylor Clarke ARI · 48.3 IP · 4.7 K/9 | 2.23 | 4.12 | +1.89 | +13.1 |
| 9 |  Ben Brown CHC · 68.0 IP · 8.6 K/9 | 1.85 | 3.43 | +1.58 | +13.0 |
| 10 |  Alimber Santa HOU · 15.3 IP · 5.3 K/9 | 1.17 | 4.46 | +3.29 | +12.9 |
| 11 |  Brent Headrick NYY · 54.3 IP · 10.4 K/9 | 1.33 | 3.07 | +1.74 | +12.8 |
| 12 |  Nick Martinez  TB · 117.3 IP · 5.1 K/9 | 2.45 | 3.61 | +1.16 | +12.6 |
| 13 |  Colin Holderman CLE · 42.0 IP · 8.8 K/9 | 1.71 | 3.64 | +1.93 | +12.5 |
| 14 |  Max Meyer MIA · 111.0 IP · 9.8 K/9 | 2.68 | 3.82 | +1.14 | +12.0 |
| 15 |  Bryan Baker TB · 41.3 IP · 9.4 K/9 | 1.52 | 3.37 | +1.85 | +11.9 |
| 16 |  Chase Burns CIN · 112.7 IP · 10.2 K/9 | 2.40 | 3.47 | +1.07 | +11.4 |
| 17 |  DL Hall MIL · 31.0 IP · 9.3 K/9 | 2.03 | 4.03 | +2.00 | +11.1 |
| 18 |  Ryan Rolison CHC · 40.7 IP · 9.3 K/9 | 2.66 | 4.39 | +1.73 | +11.0 |
| 19 |  Daniel Lynch IV KC · 45.0 IP · 6.8 K/9 | 2.00 | 3.64 | +1.64 | +11.0 |
| 20 |  Luke Weaver NYM · 43.0 IP · 9.2 K/9 | 1.88 | 3.55 | +1.67 | +10.9 |
| 21 |  Dylan Dodd ATL · 32.7 IP · 9.9 K/9 | 2.20 | 4.01 | +1.81 | +10.3 |
| 22 |  Justin Wrobleski LAD · 112.7 IP · 6.9 K/9 | 2.88 | 3.85 | +0.97 | +10.3 |
| 23 |  Robbie Ray  SF · 116.7 IP · 7.8 K/9 | 3.16 | 4.11 | +0.95 | +10.3 |
| 24 |  Jacob Waguespack DET · 20.0 IP · 5.8 K/9 | 1.80 | 4.07 | +2.27 | +10.2 |
| 25 |  Ty Madden DET · 27.0 IP · 10.3 K/9 | 2.67 | 4.56 | +1.89 | +9.8 |
| 26 |  Matt Brash SEA · 16.7 IP · 8.1 K/9 | 0.54 | 2.94 | +2.40 | +9.8 |
| 27 |  Cam Booser TB · 20.7 IP · 11.3 K/9 | 1.74 | 3.89 | +2.15 | +9.8 |
| 28 |  Brock Burke CIN · 51.7 IP · 7.5 K/9 | 2.61 | 3.96 | +1.35 | +9.7 |
| 29 |  Jacob Latz TEX · 50.0 IP · 9.2 K/9 | 1.80 | 3.17 | +1.37 | +9.7 |
| 30 |  Peter Lambert HOU · 103.0 IP · 8.7 K/9 | 3.06 | 3.99 | +0.93 | +9.4 |
| # | Pitcher | YTD ERA | PROJ | Δ ERA | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kodai Senga NYM · 40.7 IP · 10.8 K/9 | 8.85 | 4.31 | -4.54 | -29.0 |
| 2 |  Kyle Freeland COL · 99.3 IP · 7.7 K/9 | 7.34 | 4.45 | -2.89 | -28.8 |
| 3 |  Matt Svanson STL · 43.3 IP · 8.5 K/9 | 7.27 | 3.38 | -3.89 | -25.6 |
| 4 |  Grayson Rodriguez LAA · 44.0 IP · 7.4 K/9 | 7.98 | 4.19 | -3.79 | -25.1 |
| 5 |  Max Scherzer TOR · 24.7 IP · 6.6 K/9 | 9.49 | 4.44 | -5.05 | -25.1 |
| 6 |  Sean Sullivan COL · 22.3 IP · 6.4 K/9 | 8.87 | 3.66 | -5.21 | -24.6 |
| 7 |  Michael Lorenzen COL · 104.7 IP · 6.9 K/9 | 6.54 | 4.31 | -2.23 | -22.8 |
| 8 |  Jack Perkins OAK · 68.3 IP · 10.5 K/9 | 6.45 | 3.71 | -2.74 | -22.6 |
| 9 |  Ryan Walker SF · 26.3 IP · 6.5 K/9 | 7.52 | 3.25 | -4.27 | -21.9 |
| 10 |  Ryan Johnson LAA · 41.7 IP · 7.3 K/9 | 7.34 | 4.00 | -3.34 | -21.6 |
| 11 |  Jason Alexander HOU · 18.3 IP · 6.9 K/9 | 9.33 | 4.31 | -5.02 | -21.5 |
| 12 |  Jayden Murray CHC · 16.3 IP · 7.7 K/9 | 9.37 | 4.23 | -5.14 | -20.8 |
| 13 |  Andrew Painter PHI · 65.0 IP · 7.3 K/9 | 7.06 | 4.63 | -2.43 | -19.6 |
| 14 |  Luis García MIN · 15.0 IP · 3.6 K/9 | 9.00 | 3.96 | -5.04 | -19.5 |
| 15 |  Taijuan Walker PHI · 22.7 IP · 6.8 K/9 | 9.13 | 5.05 | -4.08 | -19.4 |
| 16 |  Trey Gibson BAL · 33.0 IP · 8.2 K/9 | 7.36 | 4.09 | -3.27 | -18.8 |
| 17 |  Justin Topa MIN · 19.0 IP · 5.7 K/9 | 8.05 | 3.76 | -4.29 | -18.7 |
| 18 |  Zac Gallen ARI · 98.0 IP · 5.6 K/9 | 6.34 | 4.46 | -1.88 | -18.6 |
| 19 |  Pete Fairbanks MIA · 33.3 IP · 12.1 K/9 | 6.75 | 3.56 | -3.19 | -18.4 |
| 20 |  David Peterson CHC · 94.7 IP · 7.3 K/9 | 5.80 | 3.91 | -1.89 | -18.4 |
| 21 |  Hunter Greene CIN · 21.7 IP · 12.0 K/9 | 7.06 | 3.13 | -3.93 | -18.3 |
| 22 |  Matt Strahm KC · 34.7 IP · 7.5 K/9 | 6.75 | 3.66 | -3.09 | -18.2 |
| 23 |  Tanner Banks PHI · 29.0 IP · 9.9 K/9 | 7.14 | 3.80 | -3.34 | -18.0 |
| 24 |  Garrett Crochet BOS · 30.0 IP · 11.1 K/9 | 6.30 | 3.09 | -3.21 | -17.6 |
| 25 |  Matt Waldron SD · 32.7 IP · 7.7 K/9 | 7.16 | 4.10 | -3.06 | -17.5 |
| 26 |  Griffin Canning SD · 65.0 IP · 9.3 K/9 | 6.65 | 4.51 | -2.14 | -17.2 |
| 27 |  Justin Lawrence WSH · 34.3 IP · 11.3 K/9 | 7.34 | 4.43 | -2.91 | -17.0 |
| 28 |  José Alvarado PHI · 40.0 IP · 11.9 K/9 | 5.85 | 3.22 | -2.63 | -16.6 |
| 29 |  Jimmy Herget COL · 28.3 IP · 9.2 K/9 | 6.67 | 3.55 | -3.12 | -16.6 |
| 30 |  Chris Roycroft TB · 18.3 IP · 7.4 K/9 | 8.35 | 4.51 | -3.84 | -16.4 |