OGILVIE · Postseason
2026 World Series Preview
2026 World Series · OGILVIE preview
TB vs 
MILSeries length: TB 4-0 4% · TB 4-1 10% · TB 4-2 13% · TB 4-3 13% · MIL 4-0 8% · MIL 4-1 15% · MIL 4-2 19% · MIL 4-3 18% · expected 5.8 games
| Gm | Date | Matchup | Away SP (* = projected) · sim line | Home SP · sim line | Proj runs | Likeliest HR | Win prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G1 | 10-23 | TB @ MIL Final TB 2-3 MIL | Nick Martinez 5.2 IP · 3.8 K · 2.8 ER | Jacob Misiorowski 5.3 IP · 7.3 K · 1.8 ER | 3.4 – 4.4 extras 10% | Caminero 20% · Bauers 20% · Chourio 18% | MIL 64% |
| G2 | 10-24 | TB @ MIL Final TB 4-5 MIL | Drew Rasmussen 5.2 IP · 5.9 K · 2.2 ER | Logan Henderson 5.0 IP · 5.2 K · 2.2 ER | 3.9 – 3.9 extras 11% | Caminero 23% · Bauers 17% · Jr. 16% | MIL 53% |
| G3 | 10-26 | MIL @ TB Final MIL 10-1 TB | Robert Gasser 1.7 IP · 1.4 K · 0.8 ER | Freddy Peralta 5.0 IP · 5.4 K · 2.5 ER | 4.4 – 4.0 extras 10% | Caminero 19% · Bauers 16% · Chourio 16% | TB 48% |
| G4 | 10-27 | MIL @ TB Final MIL 3-4 TB | Dustin May 1.7 IP · 1.4 K · 0.9 ER | Griffin Jax 4.4 IP · 5.6 K · 1.9 ER | 4.0 – 4.0 extras 11% | Caminero 19% · Bauers 17% · Chourio 15% | TB 53% |
| G5 | 10-28 | MIL @ TB | Jacob Misiorowski 5.2 IP · 6.7 K · 1.9 ER | Drew Rasmussen 5.2 IP · 5.7 K · 2.2 ER | 3.9 – 3.5 extras 11% | Caminero 17% · Bauers 15% · Chourio 14% | TB 48% |
| G6 | 10-30 | TB @ MIL (if nec.) | Griffin Jax * 4.4 IP · 5.7 K · 2.0 ER | Brandon Woodruff * 4.8 IP · 5.1 K · 2.0 ER | 3.9 – 4.0 extras 12% | Caminero 22% · Bauers 19% · Chourio 18% | MIL 54% |
| G7 | 10-31 | TB @ MIL (if nec.) | Freddy Peralta * 4.9 IP · 5.5 K · 2.6 ER | Logan Henderson * 5.0 IP · 5.3 K · 2.1 ER | 3.9 – 4.4 extras 12% | Caminero 24% · Bauers 20% · Chourio 18% | MIL 58% |
Model: OGILVIE simulator (Monte Carlo, plate-appearance level). Full World Series preview → lineups vs RHP/LHP, real + projected splits, bullpen usage, defense, baserunning. · Play it yourself in the Simulator →
Real stats: MLB Stats API, 2026 regular season + postseason. Projections: OGILVIE true-talent rates (park/league neutral), platoon splits Book-regressed. *wRC+ shown from raw (park-unadjusted) wOBA. Leverage usage: hi-lev = (saves + holds + blown saves) / appearances. Built 2026-10-28 21:30.
TB
Projected lineup vs RHP
| # | Hitter | PA | 2026 AVG/OBP/SLG | wRC+* | vs LHP (2026) | vs RHP (2026) | Postseason | Proj vL | Proj vR | Fld/150 | Speed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jonathan Aranda 1B · L | 668 | .274/.358/.434 | 122 | .250/.337/.341 190 PA | .284/.366/.471 478 PA | .260/.327/.340 | 103 | 128 | +3.4 OAA -1 · DRS -2 | 25.7 0-1 SB · BsR -1.3 |
| 2 | Junior Caminero 3B · R | 702 | .276/.360/.524 | 141 | .287/.426/.490 195 PA | .272/.335/.536 507 PA | .265/.333/.408 | 136 | 131 | -3.7 OAA -4 · DRS -6 | 26.7 3-6 SB · BsR -0.3 |
| 3 | Yandy Díaz DH · R | 686 | .293/.359/.446 | 124 | .264/.342/.438 202 PA | .305/.366/.450 484 PA | .263/.300/.456 | 131 | 118 | -1.1 OAA +0 · DRS +0 | 26.1 3-4 SB · BsR -1.2 |
| 4 | Liam Hicks C · L | 554 | .284/.367/.434 | 125 | .192/.274/.231 118 PA | .309/.392/.491 436 PA | .231/.302/.333 | 89 | 116 | -2.2 OAA +0 · DRS +0 | 25.7 3-3 SB · BsR -1.4 |
| 5 | Victor Mesa Jr. RF · L | 262 | .260/.327/.498 | 127 | .333/.385/.483 66 PA | .234/.308/.503 196 PA | .143/.234/.214 | 96 | 114 | -0.1 OAA +0 · DRS +0 | 28.0 9-13 SB · BsR +0.7 |
| 6 | Richie Palacios 2B · L | 399 | .235/.330/.374 | 100 | .158/.250/.228 64 PA | .250/.345/.403 335 PA | .276/.276/.379 | 84 | 103 | -3.6 OAA -1 · DRS +1 | 26.7 17-24 SB · BsR +0.4 |
| 7 | Ryan Vilade LF · R | 278 | .245/.321/.429 | 108 | .272/.341/.477 170 PA | .202/.290/.351 108 PA | .091/.231/.364 | 117 | 102 | +2.6 OAA +1 · DRS +1 | 28.5 3-4 SB · BsR +1.1 |
| 8 | Chandler Simpson CF · L | 612 | .306/.333/.356 | 93 | .285/.293/.340 211 PA | .318/.354/.364 401 PA | .286/.295/.381 | 77 | 93 | +4.2 OAA +3 · DRS +3 | 29.4 46-60 SB · BsR +1.8 |
| 9 | Jorge Mateo SS · R | 221 | .203/.245/.314 | 54 | .200/.236/.294 89 PA | .205/.252/.328 132 PA | .000/.000/.000 | 77 | 61 | -0.0 OAA +2 · DRS +1 | 30.2 19-23 SB · BsR +2.5 |
Projected lineup vs LHP
| # | Hitter | PA | 2026 AVG/OBP/SLG | wRC+* | vs LHP (2026) | vs RHP (2026) | Postseason | Proj vL | Proj vR | Fld/150 | Speed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yandy Díaz 1B · R | 686 | .293/.359/.446 | 124 | .264/.342/.438 202 PA | .305/.366/.450 484 PA | .263/.300/.456 | 131 | 118 | -1.1 OAA +0 · DRS +0 | 26.1 3-4 SB · BsR -1.2 |
| 2 | Junior Caminero 3B · R | 702 | .276/.360/.524 | 141 | .287/.426/.490 195 PA | .272/.335/.536 507 PA | .265/.333/.408 | 136 | 131 | -3.7 OAA -4 · DRS -6 | 26.7 3-6 SB · BsR -0.3 |
| 3 | Ryan Vilade RF · R | 278 | .245/.321/.429 | 108 | .272/.341/.477 170 PA | .202/.290/.351 108 PA | .091/.231/.364 | 117 | 102 | +2.6 OAA +1 · DRS +1 | 28.5 3-4 SB · BsR +1.1 |
| 4 | Jonathan Aranda DH · L | 668 | .274/.358/.434 | 122 | .250/.337/.341 190 PA | .284/.366/.471 478 PA | .260/.327/.340 | 103 | 128 | +3.4 OAA -1 · DRS -2 | 25.7 0-1 SB · BsR -1.3 |
| 5 | Victor Mesa Jr. LF · L | 262 | .260/.327/.498 | 127 | .333/.385/.483 66 PA | .234/.308/.503 196 PA | .143/.234/.214 | 96 | 114 | -0.1 OAA +0 · DRS +0 | 28.0 9-13 SB · BsR +0.7 |
| 6 | Ben Williamson 2B · R | 286 | .238/.302/.318 | 76 | .224/.265/.320 133 PA | .250/.333/.316 153 PA | .118/.250/.118 | 94 | 80 | -8.7 OAA -4 · DRS +0 | 28.1 8-9 SB · BsR +1.1 |
| 7 | Jonny DeLuca CF · R | 370 | .266/.300/.429 | 101 | .264/.288/.378 155 PA | .267/.308/.465 215 PA | .191/.204/.234 | 92 | 79 | +4.3 OAA +0 · DRS +0 | 29.4 17-23 SB · BsR +1.9 |
| 8 | Liam Hicks C · L | 554 | .284/.367/.434 | 125 | .192/.274/.231 118 PA | .309/.392/.491 436 PA | .231/.302/.333 | 89 | 116 | -2.2 OAA +0 · DRS +0 | 25.7 3-3 SB · BsR -1.4 |
| 9 | Jorge Mateo SS · R | 221 | .203/.245/.314 | 54 | .200/.236/.294 89 PA | .205/.252/.328 132 PA | .000/.000/.000 | 77 | 61 | -0.0 OAA +2 · DRS +1 | 30.2 19-23 SB · BsR +2.5 |
Bench & platoon
Ben Williamson PLATOON vs LHP 94/80Chandler Simpson PLATOON vs RHP 77/93Jonny DeLuca PLATOON vs LHP 92/79Richie Palacios PLATOON vs RHP 84/103Cedric Mullins BENCH 89/88Nick Fortes BENCH 74/71Taylor Walls BENCH 59/59
Rotation
| Pitcher | IP · usage | ERA | K% / BB% | vs LHB (2026) | vs RHB (2026) | Postseason | Proj FIP | Proj wOBA vL / vR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Rasmussen SP · RHP FF 28%/96 | 172.0 5.7 IP/GS · 89 P/G | 2.67 | 26.0% / 4.8% | .205/.253/.315 | .191/.235/.275 | 27.2 IP, 2.28 ERA | 3.43 | .295 / .279 |
| Griffin Jax SP · RHP FF 26%/96 | 112.1 4.9 IP/GS · 51 P/G | 3.53 | 25.3% / 7.6% | .248/.300/.404 | .216/.286/.346 | 10.0 IP, 5.40 ERA | 3.64 | .308 / .278 |
| Freddy Peralta SP · RHP FF 56%/94 | 169.0 5.3 IP/GS · 92 P/G | 4.42 | 21.4% / 8.6% | .254/.318/.439 | .234/.322/.366 | 21.1 IP, 2.95 ERA | 4.27 | .316 / .314 |
| Nick Martinez SP · RHP | 180.0 5.8 IP/GS · 81 P/G | 3.10 | 15.1% / 3.6% | .236/.266/.393 | .267/.295/.410 | 16.0 IP, 2.81 ERA | 4.39 | .322 / .319 |
Bullpen (role · outs/outing · leverage usage)
| Pitcher | IP · usage | ERA | K% / BB% | vs LHB (2026) | vs RHB (2026) | Postseason | Proj FIP | Proj wOBA vL / vR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Baker CL · RHP FF 50%/97 | 62.1 2.9 outs/app · 15 P · 41 SV 2 HLD 3 BS · hi-lev 71% · IR-S 0/8 | 1.44 | 25.8% / 9.0% | .147/.214/.259 | .176/.274/.275 | 9.0 IP, 0.00 ERA | 3.84 | .301 / .301 |
| Garrett Cleavinger SU · LHP | 41.1 2.4 outs/app · 14 P · 2 SV 23 HLD 3 BS · hi-lev 55% · IR-S 9/23 | 4.79 | 29.8% / 12.2% | .293/.384/.448 | .213/.306/.394 | 1.2 IP, 0.00 ERA | 3.87 | .299 / .304 |
| Kevin Kelly SU · RHP | 73.2 3.1 outs/app · 14 P · 4 SV 33 HLD 3 BS · hi-lev 56% · IR-S 11/49 | 2.44 | 22.6% / 3.9% | .243/.293/.391 | .182/.213/.264 | 5.0 IP, 1.80 ERA | 3.97 | .316 / .295 |
| Cole Sulser MID · RHP FF 45%/92 | 56.1 3.3 outs/app · 18 P · 3 SV 12 HLD 0 BS · hi-lev 29% · IR-S 6/16 | 4.31 | 23.7% / 7.2% | .181/.239/.260 | .341/.385/.648 | 2.1 IP, 15.43 ERA | 3.94 | .297 / .315 |
| Tyler Wells MID · RHP FF 36%/93 | 72.0 3.8 outs/app · 19 P · 6 SV 15 HLD 0 BS · hi-lev 37% · IR-S 3/18 | 2.38 | 26.0% / 6.5% | .175/.240/.292 | .202/.248/.377 | 6.2 IP, 6.75 ERA | 4.00 | .314 / .298 |
| Cam Booser MID · LHP | 41.0 2.9 outs/app · 14 P · 0 SV 13 HLD 1 BS · hi-lev 33% · IR-S 2/18 | 1.98 | 29.6% / 3.9% | .123/.157/.231 | .215/.244/.367 | 6.1 IP, 5.68 ERA | 4.03 | .289 / .322 |
| Ian Seymour LR · LHP FF 21%/92 | 132.2 8.5 outs/app · 45 P · 2 SV 10 HLD 0 BS · hi-lev 26% · IR-S 0/10 | 4.21 | 28.7% / 6.5% | .244/.283/.506 | .217/.283/.401 | 9.0 IP, 5.00 ERA | 4.10 | .306 / .313 |
| Steven Matz LR · LHP | 80.1 6.7 outs/app · 37 P · 1 SV 1 HLD 1 BS · hi-lev 8% · IR-S 3/8 | 5.49 | 17.8% / 7.3% | .200/.246/.327 | .259/.323/.507 | 5.0 IP, 1.80 ERA | 4.80 | .309 / .354 |
MIL
Projected lineup vs RHP
| # | Hitter | PA | 2026 AVG/OBP/SLG | wRC+* | vs LHP (2026) | vs RHP (2026) | Postseason | Proj vL | Proj vR | Fld/150 | Speed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian Yelich LF · L | 500 | .235/.315/.378 | 93 | .212/.279/.331 130 PA | .244/.327/.395 370 PA | .282/.391/.359 | 91 | 122 | -0.9 OAA +0 · DRS +0 | 27.5 11-12 SB · BsR +0.8 |
| 2 | Jake Bauers RF · L | 578 | .266/.389/.484 | 144 | .267/.375/.526 160 PA | .266/.395/.468 418 PA | .200/.357/.289 | 106 | 124 | -1.3 OAA -4 · DRS -1 | 26.9 11-17 SB · BsR -0.4 |
| 3 | Brice Turang 2B · L | 680 | .268/.366/.450 | 129 | .216/.307/.313 202 PA | .291/.391/.510 478 PA | .256/.407/.419 | 95 | 118 | -0.2 OAA +1 · DRS +1 | 28.6 19-24 SB · BsR +1.7 |
| 4 | Jackson Chourio CF · R | 573 | .291/.351/.487 | 131 | .333/.404/.575 171 PA | .274/.328/.450 402 PA | .281/.300/.421 | 131 | 118 | -0.9 OAA +0 · DRS +0 | 29.0 23-28 SB · BsR +2.4 |
| 5 | William Contreras C · R | 640 | .270/.341/.417 | 110 | .272/.355/.405 183 PA | .270/.335/.422 457 PA | .375/.455/.583 | 119 | 113 | +1.1 OAA +0 · DRS +1 | 26.0 1-3 SB · BsR -1.2 |
| 6 | Garrett Mitchell DH · L | 531 | .262/.354/.416 | 117 | .234/.341/.327 129 PA | .271/.358/.444 402 PA | .174/.255/.348 | 92 | 113 | +4.6 OAA +2 · DRS -2 | 29.8 14-24 SB · BsR +2.7 |
| 7 | Andrew Vaughn 1B · R | 331 | .306/.390/.444 | 136 | .336/.421/.517 133 PA | .285/.369/.395 198 PA | .250/.400/.375 | 126 | 104 | +1.2 OAA +0 · DRS +0 | 25.8 0-0 SB · BsR -1.0 |
| 8 | Cooper Pratt SS · R | 266 | .281/.350/.368 | 103 | .207/.279/.293 70 PA | .306/.374/.394 196 PA | .348/.375/.478 | 104 | 92 | +0.0 OAA +0 · DRS +0 | 28.9 19-22 SB · BsR +1.8 |
| 9 | David Hamilton 3B · L | 387 | .245/.314/.336 | 84 | .225/.286/.296 81 PA | .250/.321/.347 306 PA | .333/.360/.625 | 69 | 80 | +3.7 OAA +0 · DRS +3 | 29.4 30-37 SB · BsR +1.6 |
Projected lineup vs LHP
| # | Hitter | PA | 2026 AVG/OBP/SLG | wRC+* | vs LHP (2026) | vs RHP (2026) | Postseason | Proj vL | Proj vR | Fld/150 | Speed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrew Vaughn 1B · R | 331 | .306/.390/.444 | 136 | .336/.421/.517 133 PA | .285/.369/.395 198 PA | .250/.400/.375 | 126 | 104 | +1.2 OAA +0 · DRS +0 | 25.8 0-0 SB · BsR -1.0 |
| 2 | Jackson Chourio CF · R | 573 | .291/.351/.487 | 131 | .333/.404/.575 171 PA | .274/.328/.450 402 PA | .281/.300/.421 | 131 | 118 | -0.9 OAA +0 · DRS +0 | 29.0 23-28 SB · BsR +2.4 |
| 3 | William Contreras C · R | 640 | .270/.341/.417 | 110 | .272/.355/.405 183 PA | .270/.335/.422 457 PA | .375/.455/.583 | 119 | 113 | +1.1 OAA +0 · DRS +1 | 26.0 1-3 SB · BsR -1.2 |
| 4 | Gary Sánchez DH · R | 275 | .209/.349/.422 | 118 | .238/.366/.436 123 PA | .185/.336/.411 152 PA | .000/.500/.000 | 116 | 103 | -8.0 OAA -2 · DRS -1 | 24.5 0-0 SB · BsR -2.3 |
| 5 | Jake Bauers RF · L | 578 | .266/.389/.484 | 144 | .267/.375/.526 160 PA | .266/.395/.468 418 PA | .200/.357/.289 | 106 | 124 | -1.3 OAA -4 · DRS -1 | 26.9 11-17 SB · BsR -0.4 |
| 6 | Joey Ortiz SS · R | 415 | .270/.328/.402 | 104 | .243/.304/.360 150 PA | .285/.342/.426 265 PA | .095/.095/.095 | 105 | 84 | +4.0 OAA +1 · DRS +1 | 29.1 9-14 SB · BsR +1.8 |
| 7 | Luis Lara LF · S | 212 | .246/.311/.325 | 80 | .235/.278/.309 72 PA | .252/.329/.333 140 PA | .091/.167/.091 | 95 | 95 | +0.0 OAA +0 · DRS +0 | 28.4 3-5 SB · BsR +1.8 |
| 8 | Brice Turang 2B · L | 680 | .268/.366/.450 | 129 | .216/.307/.313 202 PA | .291/.391/.510 478 PA | .256/.407/.419 | 95 | 118 | -0.2 OAA +1 · DRS +1 | 28.6 19-24 SB · BsR +1.7 |
| 9 | David Hamilton 3B · L | 387 | .245/.314/.336 | 84 | .225/.286/.296 81 PA | .250/.321/.347 306 PA | .333/.360/.625 | 69 | 80 | +3.7 OAA +0 · DRS +3 | 29.4 30-37 SB · BsR +1.6 |
Bench & platoon
Christian Yelich PLATOON vs RHP 91/122Cooper Pratt PLATOON vs RHP 104/92Garrett Mitchell PLATOON vs RHP 92/113Gary Sánchez PLATOON vs LHP 116/103Joey Ortiz PLATOON vs LHP 105/84Luis Lara PLATOON vs LHP 95/95Sal Frelick BENCH 83/103
Rotation
| Pitcher | IP · usage | ERA | K% / BB% | vs LHB (2026) | vs RHB (2026) | Postseason | Proj FIP | Proj wOBA vL / vR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski SP · RHP FF 61%/100 | 174.2 5.8 IP/GS · 88 P/G | 1.80 | 37.9% / 6.6% | .114/.189/.189 | .209/.268/.314 | 16.0 IP, 2.25 ERA | 2.70 | .260 / .266 |
| Brandon Woodruff SP · RHP FF 42%/92 | 45.1 5.0 IP/GS · 71 P/G | 2.98 | 27.0% / 5.7% | .146/.220/.293 | .203/.229/.316 | 1.0 IP, 9.00 ERA | 3.59 | .296 / .290 |
| Logan Henderson SP · RHP FF 44%/93 | 98.1 5.5 IP/GS · 84 P/G | 2.47 | 29.6% / 5.1% | .178/.232/.360 | .192/.217/.328 | 12.0 IP, 4.50 ERA | 3.77 | .307 / .289 |
| Shane Drohan SP · LHP FF 32%/95 | 124.2 6.6 IP/GS · 61 P/G | 4.19 | 23.7% / 8.3% | .245/.278/.352 | .260/.344/.438 | 1.0 IP, 18.00 ERA | 4.09 | .292 / .324 |
Bullpen (role · outs/outing · leverage usage)
| Pitcher | IP · usage | ERA | K% / BB% | vs LHB (2026) | vs RHB (2026) | Postseason | Proj FIP | Proj wOBA vL / vR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Megill CL · RHP FF 59%/97 | 61.2 2.9 outs/app · 14 P · 30 SV 7 HLD 3 BS · hi-lev 63% · IR-S 1/3 | 2.63 | 28.5% / 6.2% | .165/.216/.204 | .195/.248/.263 | 7.0 IP, 1.29 ERA | 2.78 | .268 / .264 |
| Abner Uribe SU · RHP | 59.1 2.9 outs/app · 15 P · 6 SV 23 HLD 2 BS · hi-lev 51% · IR-S 8/23 | 1.97 | 26.5% / 8.1% | .267/.327/.347 | .136/.213/.182 | 11.0 IP, 1.64 ERA | 3.14 | .288 / .265 |
| JoJo Romero SU · LHP | 56.1 3.1 outs/app · 17 P · 0 SV 23 HLD 2 BS · hi-lev 45% · IR-S 9/31 | 3.36 | 22.7% / 7.6% | .253/.301/.437 | .228/.315/.346 | 7.1 IP, 1.23 ERA | 4.06 | .295 / .321 |
| Aaron Ashby MID · LHP | 89.1 3.6 outs/app · 21 P · 4 SV 15 HLD 6 BS · hi-lev 33% · IR-S 11/24 | 3.12 | 30.3% / 10.7% | .215/.280/.300 | .231/.329/.337 | 18.0 IP, 0.00 ERA | 3.46 | .274 / .300 |
| DL Hall MID · LHP | 61.1 3.9 outs/app · 21 P · 0 SV 6 HLD 1 BS · hi-lev 15% · IR-S 7/23 | 1.91 | 26.6% / 14.5% | .111/.273/.173 | .165/.277/.281 | 8.0 IP, 0.00 ERA | 4.46 | .307 / .333 |
| Antonio Senzatela MID · RHP FF 37%/97 | 73.1 3.9 outs/app · 20 P · 4 SV 11 HLD 8 BS · hi-lev 40% · IR-S 8/24 | 4.05 | 19.3% / 8.4% | .252/.320/.374 | .268/.331/.383 | 4.1 IP, 0.00 ERA | 4.57 | .326 / .327 |