Kevin Kelly
P
Tampa Bay Rays
Age 28
RHP
6'2" / 195 lbs
MLB
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 46 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109100vR 90
ERA3.57
FIP3.81
K%19.2%
BB%3.9%
K-BB%15.3%
ROS IP47
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p2993.0
Whiff%
p1018.0%
K%
p2819.0%
xwOBA vs
p420.321
FB+3.4 (64%)
CH+1.9 (25%)
SI (60%)
SL-1.3 (10%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | AZL Indians Blue | 14 | 0 | 17 | 70 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.3% | 3.6% | 20.7% | 2.0% | 2.08 | 2.60 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | AZL Indians Blue | 14 | 0 | 17 | 70 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 35.7% | 2.9% | 32.9% | 1.4% | 2.08 | 1.31 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 40 | 0 | 56 | 235 | 81 | 7 | 7 | 0% | 1.4 | 26.5% | 3.4% | 23.1% | 2.6% | 4.66 | 2.71 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 40 | 0 | 56 | 235 | 81 | 7 | 7 | 0% | 1.4 | 34.5% | 3.0% | 31.5% | 3.0% | 4.66 | 2.21 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 1 | 57 | 251 | 75 | 22 | 1 | 2% | 1.2 | 25.4% | 9.4% | 16.0% | 0.4% | 2.04 | 2.38 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 1 | 57 | 251 | 75 | 22 | 1 | 2% | 1.2 | 29.9% | 8.8% | 21.1% | 0.4% | 2.04 | 1.86 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 57 | 0 | 67 | 276 | 56 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.3% | 5.1% | 15.2% | 0.8% | 3.09 | 2.45 | +1.8 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 57 | 0 | 67 | 276 | 56 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.3% | 5.1% | 15.2% | 0.7% | 3.09 | 2.44 | +1.8 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 73 | 0 | 75 | 296 | 71 | 8 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 2.9% | 19.8% | 2.7% | 2.51 | 3.01 | +1.6 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 73 | 0 | 75 | 296 | 71 | 8 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.0% | 2.7% | 21.3% | 2.4% | 2.51 | 2.74 | +1.9 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 53 | 1 | 52 | 222 | 53 | 9 | 11 | 2% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 4.7% | 15.8% | 6.8% | 5.05 | 5.70 | -0.7 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 53 | 1 | 52 | 222 | 53 | 9 | 11 | 2% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 4.1% | 19.8% | 5.0% | 5.05 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 41 | 0 | 44 | 168 | 32 | 7 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.0% | 4.2% | 14.9% | 2.4% | 2.44 | 3.33 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | TB | 43 | 0 | 45 | 189 | 35 | 8 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.7% | 4.1% | 14.6% | 3.5% | 4.20 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | TB | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 32 | 8 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.0% | 4.4% | 13.6% | 3.7% | 4.42 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | TB | 37 | 0 | 39 | 166 | 29 | 8 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.3% | 4.8% | 12.5% | 4.0% | 4.65 | 4.80 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | TB | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 33 | 7 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.7% | 4.1% | 14.6% | 3.5% | 4.20 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | TB | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 30 | 7 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.0% | 4.4% | 13.6% | 3.7% | 4.42 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | TB | 35 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 27 | 7 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.3% | 4.8% | 12.5% | 4.0% | 4.65 | 4.80 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 321 | 0 | 341 | 1398 | 277 | 59 | 43 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.8% | 4.2% | 15.6% | 3.1% | 3.71 | 3.65 | +7.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 188 | 0 | 200 | 819 | 162 | 35 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.8% | 4.2% | 15.6% | 3.1% | 3.71 | 3.65 | +4.1 | ||
| Career | — | 326 | 2 | 369 | 1518 | 344 | 74 | 38 | 1% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 4.9% | 17.8% | 2.5% | 3.20 | 3.17 | +9.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 177 | 1 | 200 | 823 | 186 | 40 | 20 | 1% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 4.9% | 17.8% | 2.5% | 3.20 | 3.17 | +5.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kevin Kelly (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.36 | 19.4% | 3.8% | 3.7% | — | 4.57 | 18.0% | 13.6% | 126 | +0.21 | — | — | — |
| Drew Storen R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.76 | 21.1% | 5.3% | 3.2% | .304 | 3.96 | 19.5% | 11.6% | 65 | +0.20 | 2.36 | 172 | 78 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.62 | 18.9% | 4.8% | 2.7% | .295 | 3.16 | 21.2% | 15.9% | 172 | -0.46 | 2.82 | 316 | 78 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2025 · 3.92 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.92 | 17.1% | 3.2% | 3.4% | .336 | 3.21 | 22.5% | 17.2% | 64 | -0.71 | 3.21 | 161 | 76 |
| Casey Fien R 2029 · 3.42 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.42 | 16.0% | 3.1% | 2.3% | .272 | 5.78 | 18.5% | 14.4% | 73 | +2.36 | 3.42 | 136 | 74 |
| George Kontos R 2028 · 4.08 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.08 | 15.5% | 3.2% | 3.4% | .216 | 3.66 | 19.0% | 13.0% | 171 | -0.42 | 3.56 | 290 | 71 |
| Joakim Soria R 2029 · 3.58 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.58 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 3.0% | .258 | 2.93 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.65 | 2.01 | 380 | 71 |
| Derek Self R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.96 | 14.4% | 2.5% | 3.2% | .275 | 5.41 | 14.5% | 9.8% | 75 | +1.45 | 3.61 | 302 | 71 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.55 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .283 | 3.52 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | -0.03 | 3.15 | 272 | 71 |
| David Hernandez R 2028 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 71 |
| Alex Wilson R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.49 | 13.9% | 3.7% | 2.0% | .255 | 3.80 | 16.8% | 11.9% | 195 | +0.31 | 3.40 | 326 | 71 |
| Cory Mazzoni R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.40 | 18.1% | 5.1% | 4.0% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.78 | 101 | 71 |
| Alex Wimmers R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.69 | 23.2% | 5.8% | 3.3% | .235 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 230 | 70 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.84 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 3.2% | .324 | 3.81 | 22.0% | 12.8% | 135 | -0.03 | 3.57 | 224 | 70 |
| Ryan Pressly R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.92 | 24.2% | 5.6% | 3.9% | .251 | 2.28 | 34.0% | 27.5% | 146 | -1.64 | 1.80 | 586 | 70 |
| Rob Wooten R 2028 · 5.26 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.26 | 19.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | .299 | 3.74 | 17.7% | 14.4% | 111 | -1.52 | 3.19 | 191 | 70 |
| Edward Mujica R 2029 · 5.08 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.08 | 15.5% | 2.6% | 5.4% | .282 | 3.61 | 16.6% | 13.7% | 165 | -1.47 | 2.97 | 212 | 70 |
| Addison Reed R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.45 | 24.8% | 3.9% | 3.6% | .261 | 4.66 | 18.2% | 13.2% | 56 | +1.21 | 1.67 | 266 | 69 |
| Pedro Villarreal R 2025 · 3.34 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.34 | 14.8% | 4.1% | 1.8% | .306 | 5.91 | 16.6% | 13.5% | 26 | +2.57 | 3.34 | 102 | 69 |
| Mitchell Stumpo R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.35 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 4.1% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 158 | 69 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2027 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 43 | 18.4% | 4.2% | 1.45 | 4.33 |
| Austin Pruitt ('23) | 5 | 61 | 16.9% | 5.6% | 1.22 | 4.45 |
| Dan Otero ('19) | 5 | 53 | 16.7% | 3.0% | 1.12 | 3.93 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Eli Morgan ('24) | 4 | 66 | 23.8% | 6.4% | 1.46 | 3.97 |
| Adam Morgan ('21) | 6 | 59 | 20.5% | 7.1% | 1.56 | 4.77 |
| Yusmeiro Petit ('21) | 7 | 72 | 20.4% | 4.6% | 1.27 | 3.28 |