Kevin Kelly — OGILVIE

Kevin Kelly P Tampa Bay Rays

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 195 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION68 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10092vR 84

ERA3.49

FIP3.70

K%20.4%

BB%3.5%

K-BB%16.9%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 72 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL7070

CMD5555

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3093.1

Whiff%

p2221.4%

p4221.0%

xwOBA vs

p670.295

FB+3.4 (64%)

CH+1.9 (28%)

SI (57%)

SL-1.3 (7%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	21	ROK MLE	AZL Indians Blue	14	0	17	70	25	2	1	0%	1.2	24.3%	3.6%	20.7%	2.0%	2.08	2.60	—
2019	21	ROK RAW	AZL Indians Blue	14	0	17	70	25	2	1	0%	1.2	35.7%	2.9%	32.9%	1.4%	2.08	1.31	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	40	0	56	235	81	7	7	0%	1.4	26.5%	3.4%	23.1%	3.0%	4.66	2.96	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	40	0	56	235	81	7	7	0%	1.4	34.5%	3.0%	31.5%	3.0%	4.66	2.21	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	1	57	251	75	22	1	2%	1.2	25.4%	9.4%	16.0%	0.4%	2.04	2.38	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	1	57	251	75	22	1	2%	1.2	29.9%	8.8%	21.1%	0.4%	2.04	1.86	—
2023	25	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	57	0	67	276	56	14	2	0%	1.2	20.3%	5.1%	15.2%	0.7%	3.09	2.44	+1.7
2023	25	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	57	0	67	276	56	14	2	0%	1.2	20.3%	5.1%	15.2%	0.7%	3.09	2.44	+1.7
2023	25	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	57	0	67	276	56	14	2	0%	1.2	20.3%	5.1%	15.2%	0.7%	3.09	2.44	+1.7
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	73	0	75	296	71	8	7	0%	1.0	22.7%	2.9%	19.8%	2.6%	2.51	2.97	+1.4
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	73	0	75	296	71	8	7	0%	1.0	22.7%	2.9%	19.8%	2.6%	2.51	2.97	+1.4
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	73	0	75	296	71	8	7	0%	1.0	24.0%	2.7%	21.3%	2.4%	2.51	2.74	+1.6
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	53	1	52	222	53	9	11	2%	1.0	20.5%	4.7%	15.8%	6.2%	5.05	5.39	-0.5
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	53	1	52	222	53	9	11	2%	1.0	20.5%	4.7%	15.8%	6.2%	5.05	5.39	-0.5
2025	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	53	1	52	222	53	9	11	2%	1.0	23.9%	4.1%	19.8%	5.0%	5.05	4.34	+0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			231	0	245	982	208	38	26	0%	1.1	21.2%	3.9%	17.3%	2.6%	3.26	3.25	+3.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	65	0	68	257	54	8	6	0%	1.0	21.0%	3.1%	17.9%	2.4%	2.51	3.04	+1.2
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	65	0	68	257	54	8	6	0%	1.0	21.0%	3.1%	17.9%	2.4%	2.51	3.04	+1.2
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	MLB RAW	TB	65	0	68	257	54	8	6	0%	1.0	21.0%	3.1%	17.9%	2.3%	2.51	3.00	+1.3
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	TB	65	0	68	257	54	8	6	0%	1.0	21.0%	3.1%	17.9%	2.3%	2.51	3.00	+1.3
ROS	28	MLB MLE	TB	4	0	4	18	4	1	1	0%	1.1	20.4%	3.5%	16.9%	3.4%	3.49	3.70	+0.0
ROS	28	MLB CTX	TB	4	0	4	17	3	1	1	0%	1.0	20.4%	3.5%	16.9%	3.4%	3.49	3.70	+0.0
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	TB	—	—	72	275	58	9	7	—	—	21.0%	3.1%	17.8%	2.4%	2.57	3.08	+1.4
FULL	28	MLB A+C	TB	—	—	72	305	58	9	7	—	—	18.9%	2.8%	16.1%	2.2%	2.57	3.05	+1.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	TB	43	0	45	189	37	7	6	0%	1.0	19.6%	3.8%	15.9%	3.3%	3.96	4.11	+0.2
2027	29	MLB CTX	TB	40	0	42	177	35	7	6	0%	1.1	19.6%	3.8%	15.9%	3.3%	3.96	4.11	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		275	0	292	1179	247	45	33	0%	1.1	20.9%	3.8%	17.1%	2.8%	3.37	3.33	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		189	0	200	808	169	31	23	0%	1.1	20.9%	3.8%	17.1%	2.8%	3.37	3.33	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		350	2	393	1607	366	75	39	1%	1.1	22.8%	4.7%	18.1%	2.5%	3.16	3.12	+4.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		178	1	200	819	186	38	20	1%	1.1	22.8%	4.7%	18.1%	2.5%	3.16	3.12	+2.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kevin Kelly (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.28	19.6%	3.8%	3.6%	—	4.11	19.6%	15.9%	45	-0.17	—	—	—
Drew Storen R 2016 · 3.72 FIP	28	SU	3.72	21.1%	5.3%	3.1%	.304	3.91	19.5%	11.6%	65	+0.19	2.36	172	83
Addison Reed R 2017 · 3.52 FIP	28	SU	3.52	24.8%	3.9%	3.7%	.261	4.68	18.2%	13.2%	56	+1.16	1.67	266	78
Tommy Hunter R 2015 · 3.72 FIP	29	SU	3.72	18.9%	4.8%	2.9%	.295	3.14	21.2%	15.9%	172	-0.58	2.78	316	77
Ryan Pressly R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	28	SU	3.93	24.2%	5.6%	4.0%	.251	2.39	34.0%	27.5%	146	-1.54	1.88	586	76
Jesus Pirela R 2016 · 3.92 FIP	27	SU	3.92	17.1%	3.2%	3.4%	.336	3.24	22.5%	17.2%	64	-0.68	3.24	161	75
Kelvin Herrera R 2018 · 3.83 FIP	28	SU	3.83	20.7%	5.4%	3.3%	.285	3.95	22.6%	15.4%	51	+0.12	2.33	297	73
Casey Fien R 2015 · 3.42 FIP	31	SU	3.42	16.0%	3.1%	2.3%	.272	5.55	18.5%	14.4%	73	+2.13	3.42	136	73
Ryan Dull R 2018 · 4.23 FIP	28	SU	4.23	25.1%	7.3%	4.2%	.315	4.93	23.5%	15.2%	98	+0.70	3.07	345	73
Alex Wimmers R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	23.2%	5.8%	3.2%	.235	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	230	72
Joakim Soria R 2015 · 3.70 FIP	31	SU	3.70	23.5%	6.6%	3.2%	.258	2.91	26.6%	18.9%	183	-0.79	2.01	380	72
Buck Farmer R 2019 · 3.52 FIP	28	SU	3.52	25.3%	7.6%	2.9%	.292	4.02	23.4%	12.9%	152	+0.50	3.16	907	71
Rob Wooten R 2015 · 4.86 FIP	30	SU	4.86	19.3%	5.5%	4.9%	.299	3.87	17.7%	14.4%	111	-0.99	3.19	191	71
A.J. Schugel R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	28	SU	4.01	20.1%	8.1%	2.9%	.307	6.37	17.6%	10.6%	13	+2.36	2.80	299	70
Héctor Neris R 2017 · 3.18 FIP	28	SU	3.18	26.9%	7.2%	2.6%	.292	3.02	33.6%	25.0%	156	-0.16	2.03	682	70
Cory Gearrin R 2015 · 3.52 FIP	29	SU	3.52	22.1%	7.5%	2.5%	.283	3.54	22.2%	13.6%	174	+0.02	3.15	272	70
Tim Peterson R 2019 · 4.02 FIP	28	SU	4.02	22.0%	5.8%	3.7%	.245	5.06	20.5%	12.2%	47	+1.04	2.17	307	70
Nick Wittgren R 2019 · 4.06 FIP	28	SU	4.06	26.0%	6.1%	4.3%	.252	3.99	21.9%	16.6%	115	-0.07	3.11	508	70
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	70
George Kontos R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	30	SU	4.07	15.5%	3.2%	3.4%	.216	3.70	19.0%	13.0%	171	-0.37	3.55	290	70
Derek Self R 2018 · 3.82 FIP	28	SU	3.82	14.4%	2.5%	2.9%	.275	5.29	14.5%	9.8%	75	+1.47	3.82	302	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.5	46	19.6%	3.8%	1.33	4.02
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Craig Stammen ('22)	2.0	66	23.0%	5.4%	1.19	3.36
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Richard Rodríguez ('21)	1.1	56	25.0%	6.3%	1.21	3.00
Erik Swanson ('24)	1.3	51	26.2%	6.5%	1.57	3.70