Kevin Kelly
P
Tampa Bay Rays
+0.3
WAR
Age 28
RHP
6'2" / 195 lbs
MLB
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.03
FIP4.32
xFIP3.33
SIERA3.00
K%21.8%
BB%5.3%
K-BB%16.5%
IP44
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
STUF4040
CTRL7070
CMD5555
K†4545
FB+3.4 (62%)
CH+1.9 (23%)
SI (59%)
CT (1%)
SL-1.3 (13%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | AZL Indians Blue | 14 | 0 | 17 | 70 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 24.3% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 2.08 | 2.60 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 40 | 0 | 56 | 235 | 81 | 7 | 7 | 26.5% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.66 | 3.00 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 48 | 1 | 57 | 251 | 75 | 22 | 1 | 25.4% | 9.4% | 0.4% | 2.04 | 2.38 | +1.7 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 57 | 0 | 67 | 276 | 56 | 14 | 2 | 20.3% | 5.1% | 0.7% | 3.09 | 2.41 | +2.0 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 73 | 0 | 75 | 296 | 71 | 8 | 7 | 22.7% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.51 | 2.94 | +1.8 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 53 | 1 | 52 | 222 | 53 | 9 | 11 | 20.5% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 5.05 | 5.40 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 8 | 0 | 8 | 31 | 7 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 7.04 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | TB | 36 | — | 36 | 151 | 28 | 7 | 5 | 18.8% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 3.99 | 4.42 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | TB | — | — | 44 | 182 | 35 | 10 | 6 | 19.5% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 4.53 | 3.64 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | TB | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 34 | 9 | 6 | 18.9% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 4.29 | 4.49 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | TB | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 32 | 9 | 6 | 18.3% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 4.47 | 4.59 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | TB | 40 | — | 40 | 168 | 30 | 9 | 6 | 17.7% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 4.60 | 4.69 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | TB | 38 | — | 38 | 161 | 28 | 9 | 6 | 17.1% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 4.72 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | TB | 36 | — | 36 | 154 | 25 | 9 | 6 | 16.4% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 4.85 | 4.93 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | TB | 35 | — | 35 | 147 | 23 | 9 | 6 | 15.7% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 4.98 | 5.07 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | TB | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 21 | 8 | 6 | 15.0% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 5.13 | 5.22 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | TB | 31 | — | 31 | 129 | 18 | 8 | 5 | 14.2% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 5.28 | 5.39 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 293 | 2 | 332 | 1381 | 319 | 70 | 34 | 23.1% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 3.39 | 3.15 | +8.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 176 | 1 | 200 | 831 | 192 | 42 | 20 | 23.1% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 3.39 | 3.15 | +4.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kevin Kelly (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.42 | 18.8% | 4.6% | 3.6% | — | 4.59 | 18.3% | 13.1% | 124 | +0.17 | — | — | — |
| Theo Denlinger R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.24 | 15.3% | 5.4% | 3.2% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.90 | 140 | 75 |
| Rolando Valdez R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.06 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.4% | .301 | 3.68 | 13.2% | 7.9% | 176 | -0.38 | 3.02 | 258 | 74 |
| Cole Johnson R 2025 · 3.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.64 | 14.0% | 4.8% | 2.0% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 101 | 74 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2027 · 3.54 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.54 | 18.9% | 4.8% | 2.6% | .295 | 3.15 | 21.2% | 15.9% | 172 | -0.39 | 2.73 | 316 | 74 |
| Rob Scahill R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.75 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.0% | .288 | 3.35 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.40 | 3.08 | 201 | 73 |
| Bryan Evans R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.19 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 3.3% | .250 | 4.61 | 19.7% | 14.9% | 132 | +0.42 | 3.86 | 231 | 73 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.01 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 125 | 73 |
| Drew Storen R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.77 | 21.1% | 5.3% | 3.2% | .304 | 3.89 | 19.5% | 11.6% | 65 | +0.12 | 2.26 | 172 | 73 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2027 · 4.66 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.66 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 3.6% | .332 | 4.35 | 11.2% | 7.2% | 74 | -0.31 | 4.35 | 135 | 72 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2028 · 3.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.83 | 18.7% | 5.5% | 2.9% | .333 | 3.54 | 27.2% | 18.8% | 45 | -0.29 | 3.54 | 348 | 72 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2027 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 72 |
| Ryan Doolittle R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.38 | 13.9% | 7.1% | 2.8% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 101 | 72 |
| Cory Mazzoni R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.24 | 18.1% | 5.1% | 3.7% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 0.78 | 101 | 72 |
| Edwin Quirarte R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.43 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 1.7% | .311 | 3.46 | 12.7% | 4.9% | 83 | +0.03 | 3.18 | 157 | 71 |
| Alex Wilson R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.46 | 13.9% | 3.7% | 2.0% | .255 | 3.69 | 16.8% | 11.9% | 195 | +0.23 | 3.32 | 326 | 71 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2025 · 3.92 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.92 | 17.1% | 3.2% | 3.4% | .336 | 3.23 | 22.5% | 17.2% | 64 | -0.69 | 3.23 | 161 | 71 |
| Chasen Bradford R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.37 | 16.5% | 5.6% | 3.5% | .269 | 5.02 | 17.7% | 11.9% | 69 | +0.65 | 3.00 | 322 | 71 |
| Andrew Triggs R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.11 | 17.7% | 6.7% | 3.0% | .288 | 4.76 | 23.6% | 13.7% | 41 | +0.65 | 1.66 | 242 | 71 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2027 · 3.52 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.52 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .283 | 3.61 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | +0.09 | 3.17 | 272 | 71 |
| Rob Wooten R 2028 · 4.91 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.91 | 19.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | .299 | 3.86 | 17.7% | 14.4% | 111 | -1.05 | 3.19 | 191 | 71 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.