Garrett Cleavinger
P
Tampa Bay Rays
+0.9
WAR
Age 32
LHP
6'1" / 225 lbs
MLB
Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027
peak 0.8 · 2026
ERA3.53
FIP3.83
xFIP7.49
SIERA7.22
K%29.4%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%20.4%
IP56
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2026
K†7070
FB Velo
p8797.1
Whiff%
p9036.0%
K%
p9033.7%
xwOBA vs
p820.281
SL+0.8 (59%)
SI (25%)
FB-1.7 (41%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 22 | A+ | Frederick Keys | 37 | 0 | 76 | 314 | 102 | 32 | 5 | 24.5% | 11.8% | 2.0% | 3.07 | 3.62 | +1.3 |
| 2017 | 23 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 38 | 0 | 54 | 256 | 59 | 31 | 5 | 18.7% | 13.3% | 1.9% | 6.00 | 4.24 | +0.4 |
| 2018 | 24 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 12 | 0 | 13 | 71 | 18 | 12 | 0 | — | — | — | 7.42 | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 34 | 0 | 52 | 228 | 83 | 34 | 2 | 29.5% | 16.4% | 0.9% | 3.66 | 3.17 | +1.0 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | — | — | — | 13.50 | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 33 | 1 | 30 | 131 | 46 | 16 | 4 | 25.0% | 13.1% | 3.9% | 2.43 | 4.81 | +0.0 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 48 | 1 | 61 | 249 | 96 | 27 | 6 | 35.5% | 11.2% | 2.5% | 2.95 | 2.92 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 15 | 0 | 12 | 48 | 14 | 6 | 2 | — | — | — | 3.00 | — | — |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 68 | 0 | 60 | 266 | 71 | 31 | 6 | 26.7% | 11.7% | 2.3% | 3.75 | 3.57 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 67 | 0 | 61 | 243 | 82 | 18 | 9 | 33.7% | 7.4% | 3.6% | 2.35 | 3.17 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 7.71 | — | — |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | TB | 53 | — | 53 | 225 | 70 | 20 | 7 | 30.9% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 3.49 | 3.72 | +0.7 |
| 2026 Total | 32 | MLB | TB | — | — | 56 | 239 | 73 | 23 | 7 | 30.4% | 9.7% | 2.9% | 3.67 | 3.56 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | TB | 53 | — | 53 | 225 | 68 | 21 | 7 | 30.3% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 3.70 | 3.85 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | TB | 50 | — | 50 | 213 | 63 | 20 | 7 | 29.6% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 3.87 | 3.99 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | TB | 48 | — | 48 | 201 | 58 | 19 | 7 | 28.8% | 9.6% | 3.4% | 4.03 | 4.14 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 36 | MLB | TB | 44 | — | 44 | 188 | 53 | 18 | 7 | 28.1% | 9.8% | 3.5% | 4.19 | 4.30 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 37 | MLB | TB | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 48 | 18 | 6 | 27.3% | 10.1% | 3.7% | 4.36 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 38 | MLB | TB | 38 | — | 38 | 160 | 42 | 17 | 6 | 26.4% | 10.4% | 3.8% | 4.54 | 4.66 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 356 | 2 | 422 | 1824 | 502 | 224 | 42 | 27.5% | 12.3% | 2.3% | 3.62 | 3.60 | +8.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 169 | 1 | 200 | 864 | 238 | 106 | 20 | 27.5% | 12.3% | 2.3% | 3.62 | 3.60 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Garrett Cleavinger (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.72 | 30.9% | 9.0% | 3.1% | — | 3.99 | 29.6% | 20.2% | 151 | +0.27 | — | — | — |
| Tony Sipp L 2026 · 2.68 FIP | 32 | SW | 2.68 | 28.7% | 6.5% | 2.2% | .267 | 4.36 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 120 | +1.68 | 2.19 | 195 | 67 |
| Josh Edgin L 2025 · 3.62 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.62 | 29.2% | 9.2% | 3.3% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 113 | 66 |
| Boone Logan L 2026 · 3.07 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.07 | 30.8% | 9.9% | 2.4% | .346 | 5.22 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 11 | +2.15 | 2.64 | 113 | 64 |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 2.91 FIP | 32 | SW | 2.91 | 29.8% | 13.5% | 1.1% | .293 | 4.02 | 31.5% | 18.1% | 140 | +1.11 | 2.32 | 455 | 64 |
| Will Smith L 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.82 | 30.7% | 9.2% | 3.9% | .239 | 3.72 | 22.2% | 15.2% | 158 | -0.10 | 1.76 | 464 | 62 |
| Cam Booser L 2026 · 3.16 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.16 | 26.4% | 8.2% | 2.3% | .338 | 5.72 | 25.5% | 12.5% | 46 | +2.56 | 3.16 | 253 | 62 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2025 · 3.70 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.70 | 25.3% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 223 | 62 |
| Brooks Raley L 2026 · 3.28 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.28 | 32.1% | 7.1% | 3.6% | .208 | 2.78 | 28.4% | 20.4% | 157 | -0.50 | 1.74 | 203 | 62 |
| Chris Sale L 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.30 | 28.4% | 6.0% | 3.3% | .342 | 2.50 | 31.1% | 25.1% | 280 | -0.80 | 1.52 | 1,426 | 62 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.28 | 25.9% | 12.7% | 3.2% | .276 | 5.11 | 17.3% | 2.6% | 35 | +0.83 | 3.70 | 181 | 60 |
| Caleb Thielbar L 2026 · 3.12 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.12 | 25.9% | 5.3% | 2.8% | .337 | 2.72 | 30.2% | 22.6% | 143 | -0.40 | 2.22 | 459 | 59 |
| Wilfredo Ledezma L 2028 · 2.57 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.57 | 24.2% | 9.2% | 0.6% | .307 | 3.31 | 22.6% | 14.3% | 71 | +0.74 | 2.57 | 109 | 58 |
| Jerry Blevins L 2026 · 2.66 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.66 | 29.2% | 6.7% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.68 | 26.9% | 16.5% | 124 | +1.02 | 2.66 | 166 | 58 |
| Justin Wilson L 2026 · 2.65 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.65 | 26.7% | 9.3% | 1.1% | .315 | 4.87 | 19.5% | 8.8% | 34 | +2.22 | 2.43 | 420 | 56 |
| Mike Minor L 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.60 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 4.8% | .267 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 14.0% | 273 | +0.04 | 2.38 | 807 | 55 |
| Sean Doolittle L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.61 | 25.4% | 5.0% | 3.7% | .306 | 4.02 | 23.8% | 14.8% | 50 | +0.41 | 1.42 | 259 | 55 |
| Ryan Buchter L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.67 | 25.3% | 10.6% | 4.3% | .286 | 5.02 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 32 | +0.35 | 2.37 | 296 | 55 |
| Jose Quintana L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.49 | 28.6% | 11.4% | 4.3% | .373 | 3.55 | 19.4% | 11.6% | 412 | -0.94 | 2.87 | 1,555 | 54 |
| Oliver Pérez L 2027 · 2.76 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.76 | 27.9% | 7.1% | 2.0% | .304 | 2.62 | 28.3% | 21.7% | 119 | -0.14 | 1.56 | 219 | 53 |
| Rex Brothers L 2025 · 4.12 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.12 | 33.9% | 18.0% | 2.9% | .356 | 4.23 | 31.8% | 17.8% | 53 | +0.11 | 3.16 | 205 | 53 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Arb-2
MLB Debut 2021
Service 4.349 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2027
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.8 | $3M | +$0.8M |
| 2027 | Arb-3 | $6M | +0.7 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $5M | $6M | +$0.8M | ||