Freddy Peralta — OGILVIE

Freddy Peralta P Tampa Bay Rays

Age 30 RHP 6'0" / 198 lbs MLB Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 3.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION153 act + 14 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10698vR 90

ERA3.81

FIP3.99

K%22.9%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%14.4%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 167 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF6060

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4594.2

Whiff%

p5526.0%

p4421.3%

xwOBA vs

p560.306

CH+3.6 (23%)

FB+2.6 (53%)

CU (13%)

SL-1.5 (10%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2018

Service 7.523 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.6M	+0.1	$0.4M	-$0.3M
Totals		$0.6M		$0.4M	-$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	19	ROK MLE	AZL Mariners	11	9	57	233	67	8	1	82%	5.2	19.6%	4.3%	15.3%	0.6%	4.11	2.32	—
2015	19	ROK RAW	AZL Mariners	11	9	57	233	67	8	1	82%	5.2	28.8%	3.4%	25.3%	0.4%	4.11	1.40	—
2016	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	10	82	350	97	36	7	42%	3.4	20.7%	12.0%	8.6%	2.3%	3.62	4.12	—
2016	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	10	82	350	97	36	7	42%	3.4	27.7%	10.3%	17.4%	2.0%	3.62	3.16	—
2017	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	19	120	506	169	62	8	76%	4.8	26.4%	13.8%	12.7%	1.9%	2.62	3.65	—
2017	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	19	120	506	169	62	8	76%	4.8	33.4%	12.3%	21.1%	1.6%	2.62	2.70	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	28	141	584	188	66	9	93%	4.7	29.9%	11.7%	18.2%	1.5%	3.76	2.87	+3.6
2018	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	28	141	584	188	66	9	93%	4.7	32.2%	11.3%	20.9%	1.5%	3.76	2.67	+4.0
2019	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	9	97	430	139	40	16	20%	2.2	30.1%	9.4%	20.7%	3.7%	5.03	3.80	+0.9
2019	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	44	9	97	430	139	40	16	20%	2.2	32.3%	9.3%	23.0%	3.7%	5.03	3.62	+1.1
2020	24	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	15	1	29	125	47	12	2	7%	2.0	37.6%	9.6%	28.0%	1.5%	3.99	1.98	+0.9
2020	24	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	15	1	29	125	47	12	2	7%	2.0	37.6%	9.6%	28.0%	1.6%	3.99	2.01	+0.9
2021	25	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	28	27	144	580	195	55	14	96%	5.2	33.6%	9.5%	24.1%	2.3%	2.81	2.72	+4.0
2021	25	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	28	27	144	580	195	55	14	96%	5.2	33.6%	9.5%	24.1%	2.4%	2.81	2.80	+3.8
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	19	83	338	94	28	7	95%	4.2	27.1%	8.5%	18.6%	1.8%	3.46	2.88	+2.1
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	19	83	338	94	28	7	95%	4.2	27.8%	8.3%	19.5%	2.1%	3.46	2.94	+2.0
2023	27	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	30	30	166	680	210	54	26	100%	5.5	30.9%	7.9%	22.9%	3.6%	3.86	3.50	+2.8
2023	27	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	30	30	166	680	210	54	26	100%	5.5	30.9%	7.9%	22.9%	3.6%	3.86	3.50	+2.8
2023	27	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	30	30	166	680	210	54	26	100%	5.5	30.9%	7.9%	22.9%	3.8%	3.86	3.58	+2.7
2024	28	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	32	32	174	725	200	68	26	100%	5.4	27.6%	9.4%	18.2%	3.4%	3.68	3.83	+2.2
2024	28	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	32	32	174	725	200	68	26	100%	5.4	27.6%	9.4%	18.2%	3.4%	3.68	3.83	+2.2
2024	28	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	32	32	174	725	200	68	26	100%	5.4	27.6%	9.4%	18.2%	3.6%	3.68	3.92	+2.0
2025	29	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	33	33	177	723	204	66	21	100%	5.4	28.2%	9.1%	19.1%	2.8%	2.70	3.39	+3.3
2025	29	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	33	33	177	723	204	66	21	100%	5.4	28.2%	9.1%	19.1%	2.8%	2.70	3.39	+3.3
2025	29	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	33	33	177	723	204	66	21	100%	5.4	28.2%	9.1%	19.1%	2.9%	2.70	3.46	+3.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			240	191	1084	4520	1295	412	141	80%	4.5	28.7%	9.1%	19.5%	3.1%	3.76	3.54	+17.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	29	29	153	667	142	55	23	100%	5.3	21.3%	8.2%	13.0%	3.5%	4.82	4.29	+1.1
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	29	29	153	667	142	55	23	100%	5.3	21.3%	8.2%	13.0%	3.5%	4.82	4.29	+1.1
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	MLB RAW	TB	29	29	153	667	142	55	23	100%	5.3	21.3%	8.2%	13.0%	3.4%	4.82	4.24	+1.2
SO FAR	30	MLB RAW	TB	29	29	153	667	142	55	23	100%	5.3	21.3%	8.2%	13.0%	3.4%	4.82	4.24	+1.2
ROS	30	MLB MLE	TB	2	2	14	58	13	5	2	100%	6.9	22.9%	8.5%	14.4%	3.2%	3.81	3.99	+0.2
ROS	30	MLB CTX	TB	2	2	14	59	14	5	2	100%	7.0	22.9%	8.5%	14.4%	3.3%	3.86	4.04	+0.2
2026 TOT	30	MLB MLE	TB	—	—	167	725	155	60	25	—	—	21.4%	8.3%	13.2%	3.4%	4.74	4.27	+1.2
FULL	30	MLB A+C	TB	—	—	167	704	155	60	25	—	—	22.1%	8.5%	13.5%	3.5%	4.74	4.26	+1.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	TB	26	26	158	667	152	59	23	100%	6.1	22.7%	8.9%	13.8%	3.5%	4.45	4.61	+0.5
2028	32	MLB MLE	TB	24	24	146	617	135	57	23	100%	6.1	21.9%	9.3%	12.6%	3.8%	4.70	4.87	+0.1
2029	33	MLB MLE	TB	22	22	134	566	119	55	23	100%	6.1	21.1%	9.7%	11.3%	4.0%	4.97	5.15	-0.4
2027	31	MLB CTX	TB	26	26	158	667	152	59	24	100%	6.1	22.7%	8.9%	13.8%	3.6%	4.51	4.67	+0.5
2028	32	MLB CTX	TB	24	24	146	616	135	57	24	100%	6.1	21.9%	9.3%	12.6%	3.9%	4.76	4.93	+0.0
2029	33	MLB CTX	TB	22	22	134	566	119	55	23	100%	6.1	21.1%	9.7%	11.3%	4.2%	5.04	5.22	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		316	267	1536	6429	1715	589	214	84%	4.9	26.7%	9.2%	17.5%	3.3%	4.05	3.84	+19.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	35	200	837	223	77	28	84%	4.9	26.7%	9.2%	17.5%	3.3%	4.05	3.84	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		321	246	1423	5941	1646	569	158	77%	4.4	27.7%	9.6%	18.1%	2.7%	3.63	3.44	+17.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	35	200	835	231	80	22	77%	4.4	27.7%	9.6%	18.1%	2.7%	3.63	3.44	+2.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Freddy Peralta (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.92	28.3%	9.1%	3.1%	—	4.86	21.9%	12.7%	438	+0.94	—	—	—
Chase Anderson R 2018 · 4.98 FIP	30	SP	4.98	19.9%	8.9%	4.4%	.235	4.93	20.1%	11.9%	253	-0.05	3.30	1,146	70
Jhoulys Chacín R 2018 · 3.71 FIP	30	SP	3.71	19.6%	8.5%	2.1%	.244	5.07	20.0%	10.1%	168	+1.36	3.71	887	64
Rick Porcello R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	30	SP	4.51	18.6%	5.6%	4.1%	.303	3.13	20.7%	15.0%	59	-1.38	3.13	1,023	63
Kyle Gibson R 2018 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	21.7%	9.3%	2.8%	.282	3.91	21.2%	12.9%	409	-0.06	3.56	1,689	63
Masahiro Tanaka R 2019 · 4.01 FIP	30	SP	4.01	19.6%	5.3%	3.5%	.292	4.08	22.3%	18.2%	48	+0.07	3.34	918	62
Chris Archer R 2019 · 4.90 FIP	30	SP	4.90	27.2%	10.1%	5.1%	.292	4.39	20.7%	10.4%	136	-0.51	2.85	1,018	58
Tanner Roark R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	30	SP	3.88	21.4%	7.6%	3.0%	.294	4.48	20.3%	13.2%	393	+0.60	3.13	942	57
Tom Koehler R 2016 · 4.38 FIP	30	SP	4.38	19.0%	9.8%	3.0%	.291	4.66	22.4%	13.4%	110	+0.28	4.38	474	57
Mike Leake R 2018 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	15.2%	4.0%	3.0%	.301	5.05	15.2%	12.2%	197	+1.08	3.69	937	56
Stephen Strasburg R 2018 · 3.33 FIP	30	SP	3.33	28.7%	6.6%	3.3%	.299	3.14	29.1%	22.3%	231	-0.19	2.42	811	54
Marcus Stroman R 2021 · 3.28 FIP	30	SP	3.28	21.6%	5.8%	2.3%	.281	3.82	19.3%	11.2%	430	+0.54	3.28	1,367	54
Miles Mikolas R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	30	SP	4.11	18.8%	4.1%	3.8%	.295	4.02	18.4%	13.4%	266	-0.09	3.13	1,296	52
Lance Lynn R 2017 · 4.68 FIP	30	SP	4.68	19.7%	9.4%	3.7%	.237	3.25	25.9%	17.8%	449	-1.43	2.85	1,390	52
Kenta Maeda R 2018 · 2.89 FIP	30	SP-	2.89	28.8%	7.3%	2.3%	.312	3.55	27.4%	20.7%	327	+0.66	2.87	1,092	50
Carlos Carrasco R 2017 · 2.85 FIP	30	SP	2.85	28.3%	5.5%	2.6%	.300	3.20	29.2%	23.4%	340	+0.35	2.67	1,455	49
Jake Arrieta R 2016 · 3.42 FIP	30	SP	3.42	23.9%	9.4%	2.1%	.237	4.07	20.3%	12.6%	477	+0.65	2.13	1,046	49
Trevor Cahill R 2018 · 3.37 FIP	30	SP	3.37	22.7%	9.8%	1.7%	.268	5.01	19.9%	10.6%	164	+1.64	3.37	556	49
Iván Nova R 2017 · 4.43 FIP	30	SP	4.43	16.7%	4.3%	4.0%	.294	4.67	15.0%	9.6%	367	+0.24	4.03	810	48
Michael Pineda R 2019 · 3.79 FIP	30	SP	3.79	23.3%	4.5%	3.8%	.288	4.20	18.0%	13.4%	208	+0.41	2.00	786	48
Alex Cobb R 2018 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	15.4%	5.7%	3.3%	.298	3.86	21.3%	13.4%	158	-0.46	2.74	844	48

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	152	23.7%	9.2%	1.38	4.43
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58