Freddy Peralta
P
New York Mets
+2.5
WAR
Age 30
RHP
6'0" / 198 lbs
MLB
Svc 8.0 · Ctrl thru 2026
peak 2.5 · 2026
ERA3.69
FIP3.89
xFIP3.79
SIERA3.75
K%27.9%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%18.8%
IP169
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.5peak
2026
K†6565
FB Velo
p3793.6
Whiff%
p8130.2%
K%
p6525.0%
xwOBA vs
p470.315
CH+3.6 (22%)
FB+2.6 (56%)
CU (12%)
SL-1.5 (7%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 19 | ROK | AZL Mariners | 11 | 9 | 57 | 233 | 67 | 8 | 1 | 19.6% | 4.3% | 0.6% | 4.11 | 2.32 | +1.7 |
| 2016 | 20 | A+ | Brevard County Manatees | 24 | 10 | 82 | 350 | 97 | 36 | 7 | 20.7% | 12.0% | 2.3% | 3.62 | 4.12 | +1.0 |
| 2017 | 21 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 25 | 19 | 120 | 506 | 169 | 62 | 8 | 26.4% | 13.8% | 1.9% | 2.62 | 3.64 | +2.3 |
| 2018 | 22 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 30 | 28 | 141 | 584 | 188 | 66 | 9 | 29.9% | 11.7% | 1.5% | 3.76 | 2.85 | +3.9 |
| 2019 | 23 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 44 | 9 | 97 | 430 | 139 | 40 | 16 | 30.1% | 9.4% | 3.9% | 5.03 | 3.87 | +1.5 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 15 | 1 | 29 | 125 | 47 | 12 | 2 | 37.6% | 9.6% | 1.6% | 3.99 | 1.99 | +1.0 |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 28 | 27 | 144 | 580 | 195 | 55 | 14 | 33.6% | 9.5% | 2.4% | 2.81 | 2.77 | +4.1 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 20 | 19 | 83 | 338 | 94 | 28 | 7 | 27.1% | 8.5% | 1.7% | 3.46 | 2.82 | +2.2 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 30 | 30 | 166 | 680 | 210 | 54 | 26 | 30.9% | 7.9% | 3.7% | 3.86 | 3.53 | +3.3 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 32 | 32 | 174 | 725 | 200 | 68 | 26 | 27.6% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 3.68 | 3.66 | +3.2 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 33 | 33 | 177 | 723 | 204 | 66 | 21 | 28.2% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 2.70 | 3.36 | +3.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | New York Mets | 4 | 4 | 21 | 89 | 25 | 8 | 3 | 28.1% | 9.0% | 3.4% | 3.86 | 3.72 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | MIL | 25 | 25 | 136 | 576 | 162 | 52 | 17 | 28.2% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 3.27 | 3.53 | +2.7 |
| 2026 Total | 30 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 158 | 665 | 187 | 60 | 20 | 28.1% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 3.35 | 3.56 | +3.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 26 | 26 | 141 | 597 | 164 | 55 | 18 | 27.6% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 3.87 | 4.02 | +2.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 23 | 23 | 126 | 533 | 144 | 50 | 17 | 26.9% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 4.03 | 4.13 | +1.7 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | MIL | 20 | 20 | 112 | 473 | 124 | 45 | 15 | 26.3% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 4.17 | 4.26 | +1.3 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | MIL | 18 | 18 | 99 | 418 | 107 | 41 | 14 | 25.6% | 9.7% | 3.4% | 4.31 | 4.40 | +1.0 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | MIL | 16 | 16 | 87 | 366 | 91 | 36 | 13 | 24.8% | 10.0% | 3.5% | 4.45 | 4.55 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | MIL | 14 | 14 | 76 | 319 | 83 | 30 | 11 | 26.1% | 9.4% | 3.6% | 4.45 | 4.44 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 37 | MLB | MIL | 12 | 12 | 65 | 275 | 69 | 27 | 10 | 25.2% | 9.7% | 3.7% | 4.55 | 4.62 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 38 | MLB | MIL | 56 | — | 56 | 235 | 57 | 23 | 9 | 24.4% | 10.0% | 3.9% | 4.70 | 4.80 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 296 | 221 | 1291 | 5363 | 1529 | 522 | 136 | 28.5% | 9.7% | 2.5% | 3.49 | 3.32 | +29.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 34 | 200 | 831 | 237 | 81 | 21 | 28.5% | 9.7% | 2.5% | 3.49 | 3.32 | +4.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Freddy Peralta (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.88 | 28.2% | 9.1% | 3.0% | — | 4.13 | 27.0% | 17.6% | 380 | +0.25 | — | — | — |
| Matt Buschmann R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.02 | 17.2% | 8.7% | 2.3% | .282 | 4.83 | 12.8% | 4.4% | 142 | +0.81 | 4.02 | 277 | 43 |
| Josh Lowey R 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.33 | 21.1% | 7.8% | 1.8% | .311 | 2.31 | 26.7% | 20.1% | 231 | -1.02 | 2.25 | 426 | 43 |
| Matt Garza R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.81 | 15.6% | 8.1% | 3.6% | .315 | 4.32 | 15.5% | 7.7% | 216 | -0.49 | 4.03 | 365 | 43 |
| Tom Koehler R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.37 | 19.0% | 9.8% | 3.0% | .291 | 4.70 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 110 | +0.33 | 4.37 | 474 | 43 |
| Miguel González R 2027 · 4.53 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.53 | 17.5% | 7.9% | 3.5% | .289 | 4.28 | 15.9% | 9.0% | 325 | -0.25 | 3.76 | 469 | 43 |
| Nate Long R 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.69 | 14.8% | 10.6% | 2.7% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.69 | 151 | 42 |
| Charlie Morton R 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.48 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 2.0% | .302 | 3.15 | 27.7% | 18.9% | 331 | -0.33 | 2.52 | 1,534 | 42 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez R 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.63 | 21.2% | 8.5% | 2.3% | .302 | 4.61 | 20.6% | 10.5% | 285 | +0.98 | 3.63 | 469 | 42 |
| Merrill Kelly R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.37 | 20.3% | 6.8% | 3.9% | .289 | 3.76 | 21.1% | 14.8% | 390 | -0.61 | 3.61 | 1,008 | 42 |
| Jesse Chavez R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.95 | 20.2% | 6.8% | 3.1% | .309 | 4.27 | 22.0% | 16.2% | 300 | +0.32 | 2.03 | 804 | 42 |
| Cory Riordan R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.21 | 14.3% | 5.0% | 3.1% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 154 | 41 |
| Thad Weber R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.64 | 13.7% | 6.4% | 3.5% | .293 | 4.59 | 11.2% | 5.7% | 202 | -0.05 | 4.36 | 363 | 41 |
| Kyle Davies R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.55 | 13.8% | 6.1% | 1.5% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 153 | 41 |
| Chase Anderson R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.91 | 19.9% | 8.9% | 4.3% | .235 | 4.99 | 20.1% | 11.9% | 253 | +0.08 | 3.30 | 1,146 | 41 |
| Toru Murata R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.02 | 13.3% | 6.9% | 2.1% | .261 | 3.63 | 12.9% | 7.2% | 102 | -0.39 | 3.63 | 267 | 41 |
| Nestor Molina R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.26 | 16.1% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 401 | 41 |
| Justin Verlander R 2028 · 3.48 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.48 | 21.1% | 5.8% | 2.6% | .265 | 3.17 | 29.6% | 23.4% | 648 | -0.31 | 2.27 | 1,584 | 41 |
| Lance Lynn R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.71 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 3.8% | .237 | 3.31 | 25.9% | 17.8% | 449 | -1.40 | 2.87 | 1,390 | 40 |
| Jhoulys Chacín R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.68 | 19.6% | 8.5% | 2.1% | .244 | 5.03 | 20.0% | 10.1% | 168 | +1.35 | 3.68 | 887 | 40 |
| Aníbal Sánchez R 2027 · 4.84 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.84 | 20.9% | 7.3% | 4.7% | .276 | 4.44 | 22.2% | 15.0% | 411 | -0.40 | 3.64 | 869 | 40 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status FA
MLB Debut 2018
Service 8.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2026
First FA Year 2027
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Ext / FA-deal | $8M | +2.5 | $20M | +$12M |
| Totals | $8M | $20M | +$12M | ||