Freddy Peralta — OGILVIE

Freddy Peralta P New York Mets

Age 30 RHP 6'0" / 198 lbs MLB Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 2.8 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION104 act + 68 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10798vR 88

ERA3.78

FIP4.02

K%24.2%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%14.9%

ROS IP68

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 172 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF6060

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4494.1

Whiff%

p5926.7%

p5122.3%

xwOBA vs

p590.303

CH+3.6 (21%)

FB+2.6 (53%)

CU (13%)

SL-1.5 (11%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2018

Service 7.523 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$3M	+1.0	$8M	+$5M
Totals		$3M		$8M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	19	ROK	AZL Mariners	11	9	57	233	67	8	1	82%	5.2	19.6%	4.3%	15.3%	0.6%	4.11	2.32	—
2015	19	ROK	AZL Mariners	11	9	57	233	67	8	1	82%	5.2	28.8%	3.4%	25.3%	0.4%	4.11	1.40	—
2016	20	MIX	2 levels	24	10	82	350	97	36	7	42%	3.4	20.7%	12.0%	8.6%	2.0%	3.62	4.00	—
2016	20	MIX	2 levels	24	10	82	350	97	36	7	42%	3.4	27.7%	10.3%	17.4%	2.0%	3.62	3.16	—
2017	21	MIX	2 levels	25	19	120	506	169	62	8	76%	4.8	26.4%	13.8%	12.7%	1.9%	2.62	3.64	—
2017	21	MIX	2 levels	25	19	120	506	169	62	8	76%	4.8	33.4%	12.3%	21.1%	1.6%	2.62	2.70	—
2018	22	MIX	3 levels	30	28	141	584	188	66	9	93%	4.7	29.9%	11.7%	18.2%	1.6%	3.76	2.93	+4.1
2018	22	MIX	3 levels	30	28	141	584	188	66	9	93%	4.7	32.2%	11.3%	20.9%	1.5%	3.76	2.67	+4.5
2019	23	MIX	3 levels	44	9	97	430	139	40	16	20%	2.2	30.1%	9.4%	20.7%	4.1%	5.03	4.00	+1.5
2019	23	MIX	3 levels	44	9	97	430	139	40	16	20%	2.2	32.3%	9.3%	23.0%	3.7%	5.03	3.62	+1.9
2020	24	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	15	1	29	125	47	12	2	7%	2.0	37.6%	9.6%	28.0%	1.7%	3.99	2.06	+0.9
2020	24	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	15	1	29	125	47	12	2	7%	2.0	37.6%	9.6%	28.0%	1.6%	3.99	2.01	+0.9
2021	25	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	28	27	144	580	195	55	14	96%	5.2	33.6%	9.5%	24.1%	2.5%	2.81	2.84	+4.3
2021	25	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	28	27	144	580	195	55	14	96%	5.2	33.6%	9.5%	24.1%	2.4%	2.81	2.80	+4.4
2022	26	MIX	2 levels	20	19	83	338	94	28	7	95%	4.2	27.1%	8.5%	18.6%	2.0%	3.46	2.97	+2.0
2022	26	MIX	2 levels	20	19	83	338	94	28	7	95%	4.2	27.8%	8.3%	19.5%	2.1%	3.46	2.94	+2.0
2023	27	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	30	30	166	680	210	54	26	100%	5.5	30.9%	7.9%	22.9%	4.0%	3.86	3.68	+3.3
2023	27	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	30	30	166	680	210	54	26	100%	5.5	30.9%	7.9%	22.9%	3.8%	3.86	3.58	+3.5
2024	28	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	32	32	174	725	200	68	26	100%	5.4	27.6%	9.4%	18.2%	3.7%	3.68	4.01	+2.8
2024	28	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	32	32	174	725	200	68	26	100%	5.4	27.6%	9.4%	18.2%	3.6%	3.68	3.92	+3.0
2025	29	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	33	33	177	723	204	66	21	100%	5.4	28.2%	9.1%	19.1%	3.0%	2.70	3.53	+3.9
2025	29	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	33	33	177	723	204	66	21	100%	5.4	28.2%	9.1%	19.1%	2.9%	2.70	3.46	+4.0
▸ 2026 Season
2026	30	MLB	New York Mets	20	20	104	466	104	44	15	100%	5.2	22.3%	9.4%	12.9%	3.2%	4.66	4.18	+1.5
ROS	30	MLB	NYM	11	11	68	285	69	26	9	100%	6.1	24.2%	9.3%	14.9%	3.3%	3.78	4.02	+0.5
ROS	30	MLB	NYM	11	11	68	287	69	27	9	100%	6.2	24.2%	9.3%	14.9%	3.2%	3.78	4.02	+0.6
2026 TOT	30	MLB	NYM	—	—	172	751	173	70	24	—	—	23.0%	9.4%	13.6%	3.2%	4.31	4.12	+2.6
2026 FULL	30	MLB	NYM	—	—	172	726	173	70	24	—	—	23.8%	9.7%	14.1%	3.3%	4.31	4.15	+2.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	31	MLB	NYM	26	26	158	667	160	64	23	100%	6.1	23.9%	9.6%	14.3%	3.5%	4.40	4.59	+1.5
2028	32	MLB	NYM	24	24	146	617	143	62	23	100%	6.1	23.1%	10.0%	13.1%	3.7%	4.67	4.85	+0.9
2027	31	MLB	NYM	26	26	158	667	160	64	23	100%	6.1	23.9%	9.6%	14.3%	3.5%	4.40	4.59	+1.5
2028	32	MLB	NYM	24	24	146	616	142	62	23	100%	6.1	23.1%	10.0%	13.1%	3.7%	4.66	4.84	+0.9
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			295	246	1407	5889	1628	554	188	83%	4.8	27.6%	9.4%	18.2%	3.2%	3.88	3.71	+27.8
/ 200 IP	—			42	35	200	837	231	79	27	83%	4.8	27.6%	9.4%	18.2%	3.2%	3.88	3.71	+3.9
Career	—			312	237	1374	5740	1608	558	159	76%	4.4	28.0%	9.7%	18.3%	2.8%	3.58	3.49	+30.7
/ 200 IP	—			45	34	200	835	234	81	23	76%	4.4	28.0%	9.7%	18.3%	2.8%	3.58	3.49	+4.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Freddy Peralta (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.05	28.3%	9.1%	3.3%	—	4.71	23.5%	13.7%	304	+0.66	—	—	—
Mitch Atkins R 2026 · 3.37 FIP	30	SP-	3.37	21.4%	8.2%	1.9%	.341	4.49	14.3%	6.2%	78	+1.12	3.37	205	41
Jesse Chavez R 2027 · 3.80 FIP	31	SP	3.80	20.2%	6.8%	2.8%	.309	4.37	22.0%	16.2%	300	+0.57	2.03	804	40
Ian Kennedy R 2026 · 4.46 FIP	30	SP	4.46	24.4%	6.7%	4.7%	.293	4.91	21.1%	13.0%	469	+0.45	2.87	864	39
Kodai Senga R 2026 · 3.40 FIP	30	SP	3.40	29.1%	11.1%	2.5%	.274	4.64	22.8%	10.3%	164	+1.24	3.40	330	39
Tom Koehler R 2026 · 4.39 FIP	30	SP	4.39	19.0%	9.8%	3.0%	.291	4.71	22.4%	13.4%	110	+0.32	4.39	474	39
Chris Bassitt R 2026 · 4.10 FIP	30	SP	4.10	23.0%	7.7%	3.6%	.258	3.32	23.2%	16.9%	402	-0.78	3.02	1,507	38
Merrill Kelly R 2026 · 4.21 FIP	30	SP	4.21	20.3%	6.8%	3.6%	.289	3.67	21.1%	14.8%	390	-0.54	3.54	1,102	38
Ubaldo Jiménez R 2027 · 3.67 FIP	31	SP	3.67	21.2%	8.5%	2.4%	.302	4.58	20.6%	10.5%	285	+0.91	3.67	469	38
Jason Hammel R 2028 · 3.43 FIP	32	SP	3.43	24.2%	5.1%	3.2%	.282	4.26	18.4%	11.9%	474	+0.83	3.43	645	37
Mike Fiers R 2026 · 3.72 FIP	30	SP	3.72	23.7%	7.8%	3.0%	.277	4.56	19.9%	13.3%	494	+0.84	3.72	918	37
Jarrett Grube R 2029 · 3.49 FIP	33	SP	3.49	18.7%	4.2%	2.6%	.285	4.58	17.3%	9.6%	253	+1.09	3.49	393	37
Chase Anderson R 2026 · 5.21 FIP	30	SP	5.21	19.9%	8.9%	4.9%	.235	5.07	20.1%	11.9%	253	-0.14	3.42	1,146	37
Jhoulys Chacín R 2026 · 3.82 FIP	30	SP	3.82	19.6%	8.5%	2.4%	.244	4.93	20.0%	10.1%	168	+1.11	3.79	887	37
Marco Estrada R 2028 · 4.32 FIP	32	SP-	4.32	18.1%	7.3%	3.3%	.213	4.55	20.6%	12.0%	506	+0.23	4.04	710	37
Lance Lynn R 2026 · 4.55 FIP	30	SP	4.55	19.7%	9.4%	3.5%	.237	3.28	25.9%	17.8%	449	-1.27	2.87	1,390	36
Miguel González R 2027 · 4.59 FIP	31	SP	4.59	17.5%	7.9%	3.6%	.289	4.25	15.9%	9.0%	325	-0.34	3.73	469	36
Josh Lowey R 2026 · 3.30 FIP	30	SP	3.30	21.1%	7.8%	1.8%	.311	2.34	26.7%	20.1%	231	-0.96	2.28	426	36
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2026 · 3.84 FIP	30	SP	3.84	17.4%	7.1%	2.4%	.315	5.10	15.9%	8.7%	305	+1.26	3.84	567	35
Charlie Morton R 2027 · 3.55 FIP	31	SP	3.55	17.9%	6.3%	2.1%	.302	3.11	27.7%	18.9%	331	-0.44	2.55	1,534	35
Hector Noesí R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	28	SP-	4.21	17.6%	8.1%	2.9%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	250	35

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3	158	25.2%	9.6%	1.35	4.27
Danny Salazar ('17)	3	142	28.1%	9.0%	1.12	3.79
Triston McKenzie ('24)	4	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94
Chris Archer ('22)	6	164	26.9%	8.3%	1.21	4.10
Nate Karns ('17)	3	96	24.2%	9.3%	1.22	4.24
Kutter Crawford ('24)	3	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Cole Hamels ('19) AS×4	5	179	22.6%	8.3%	1.11	3.72