Tyler Wells
P
Baltimore Orioles
+0.0
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 31
RHP
6'8" / 270 lbs
MLB
peak 0.1 · 2027
ERA4.17
FIP4.42
xFIP3.77
SIERA3.27
K%22.7%
BB%6.5%
K-BB%16.2%
IP23
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2027
STUF5050
CTRL7070
CMD5555
K†5050
FB Velo
p3493.4
Whiff%
p9033.9%
K%
p7426.7%
xwOBA vs
p490.313
SL+1.0 (26%)
CT+0.9 (13%)
CU (4%)
FB-1.2 (35%)
CH-2.0 (22%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | Elizabethton Twins | 10 | 10 | 47 | 202 | 59 | 17 | 0 | 19.9% | 10.5% | 0.0% | 3.23 | 2.76 | +1.2 |
| 2017 | 22 | A | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 18 | 15 | 89 | 368 | 108 | 27 | 6 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 2.1% | 3.03 | 3.58 | +1.6 |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 22 | 21 | 119 | 460 | 121 | 31 | 7 | 20.6% | 7.6% | 1.8% | 2.49 | 3.31 | +2.7 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 44 | 0 | 57 | 224 | 65 | 12 | 9 | 29.0% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 4.11 | 3.19 | +1.1 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 24 | 24 | 106 | 431 | 79 | 28 | 16 | 18.0% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 4.25 | 4.60 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 35 | 23 | 133 | 534 | 131 | 41 | 28 | 24.9% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 3.85 | 4.68 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 3 | 3 | 15 | 67 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 19.4% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.87 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 10 | 10 | 47 | 182 | 42 | 8 | 7 | 21.7% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 2.68 | 4.09 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 9 | 0 | 11 | 49 | 11 | 4 | 2 | — | — | — | 4.91 | — | — |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 21.1% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 4.47 | 4.68 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 175 | 106 | 625 | 2517 | 553 | 183 | 80 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 3.2% | 3.50 | 3.91 | +9.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 34 | 200 | 805 | 177 | 59 | 26 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 3.2% | 3.50 | 3.91 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tyler Wells (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.54 | 21.6% | 6.2% | 3.8% | — | 4.68 | 21.1% | 14.5% | 20 | +0.14 | — | — | — |
| Josh Lindblom R 2025 · 3.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.83 | 18.7% | 5.5% | 2.9% | .333 | 3.54 | 27.2% | 18.8% | 45 | -0.29 | 3.54 | 348 | 76 |
| Craig Stammen R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.03 | 17.0% | 3.7% | 3.5% | .333 | 3.35 | 23.9% | 18.6% | 241 | -0.68 | 1.83 | 407 | 74 |
| Zack Segovia R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .314 | 3.37 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.44 | 3.37 | 144 | 71 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2025 · 4.82 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.82 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 101 | 71 |
| Ryan Kelly R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.31 | 14.7% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 131 | 70 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.53 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 3.3% | .270 | 4.84 | 19.3% | 9.7% | 63 | +0.31 | 2.99 | 227 | 70 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 69 |
| Jean Machi R 2028 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 69 |
| Angel Castro R 2027 · 4.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.53 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .268 | 4.27 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.26 | 3.50 | 292 | 69 |
| Pedro Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.12 | 14.7% | 4.9% | 3.0% | .368 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 145 | 69 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2029 · 3.82 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.82 | 15.4% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .294 | 3.34 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 116 | -0.48 | 3.21 | 225 | 68 |
| Miguel Socolovich R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.38 | 16.4% | 5.1% | 3.7% | .303 | 3.55 | 19.7% | 14.5% | 93 | -0.83 | 2.65 | 283 | 68 |
| Esteban Haro R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.86 | 13.9% | 5.1% | 2.4% | .386 | 3.73 | 9.5% | 3.9% | 39 | -0.13 | 3.73 | 164 | 68 |
| Ivan Zavala R 2025 · 5.06 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.06 | 12.8% | 8.0% | 3.7% | .286 | 5.24 | 12.7% | 5.3% | 61 | +0.18 | 4.29 | 209 | 68 |
| Logan Kensing R 2028 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 68 |
| Alex Wilson R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.18 | 17.6% | 5.3% | 3.5% | .232 | 5.07 | 19.4% | 13.4% | 62 | +0.89 | 3.32 | 326 | 68 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.49 | 13.5% | 6.7% | 3.1% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 149 | 67 |
| Phil Hughes R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.85 | 15.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | .328 | 5.99 | 21.1% | 15.2% | 33 | +1.14 | 4.61 | 301 | 67 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.20 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.9% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 137 | 67 |
| Brandon Morrow R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.51 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 2.3% | .280 | 3.50 | 21.2% | 14.8% | 153 | -0.01 | 2.67 | 186 | 67 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.