Tyler Wells
P
Baltimore Orioles
Age 31
RHP
6'8" / 270 lbs
MLB
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 48 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9990vR 81
ERA3.49
FIP3.73
K%23.9%
BB%5.5%
K-BB%18.4%
ROS IP48
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 48 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3693.5
Whiff%
p7929.9%
K%
p7126.0%
xwOBA vs
p740.289
SL+1.0 (16%)
CT+0.9 (27%)
CU (5%)
FB-1.2 (30%)
CH-2.0 (23%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | Elizabethton Twins | 10 | 10 | 47 | 202 | 59 | 17 | 0 | 100% | 4.7 | 19.9% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 0.0% | 3.23 | 2.76 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | Elizabethton Twins | 10 | 10 | 47 | 202 | 59 | 17 | 0 | 100% | 4.7 | 29.2% | 8.4% | 20.8% | 0.0% | 3.23 | 1.68 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 15 | 89 | 368 | 108 | 27 | 6 | 83% | 4.9 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 12.7% | 2.2% | 3.03 | 3.60 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 15 | 89 | 368 | 108 | 27 | 6 | 83% | 4.9 | 29.3% | 7.3% | 22.0% | 1.6% | 3.03 | 2.46 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 21 | 119 | 460 | 121 | 31 | 7 | 95% | 5.4 | 20.6% | 7.6% | 13.0% | 1.7% | 2.49 | 3.27 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 21 | 119 | 460 | 121 | 31 | 7 | 95% | 5.4 | 26.3% | 6.7% | 19.6% | 1.5% | 2.49 | 2.61 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 44 | 0 | 57 | 224 | 65 | 12 | 9 | 0% | 1.3 | 29.0% | 5.4% | 23.7% | 3.7% | 4.11 | 3.38 | +0.8 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 44 | 0 | 57 | 224 | 65 | 12 | 9 | 0% | 1.3 | 29.0% | 5.4% | 23.7% | 4.0% | 4.11 | 3.50 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 106 | 431 | 79 | 28 | 16 | 100% | 4.4 | 18.0% | 6.6% | 11.3% | 3.5% | 4.25 | 4.35 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 106 | 431 | 79 | 28 | 16 | 100% | 4.4 | 18.3% | 6.5% | 11.8% | 3.7% | 4.25 | 4.36 | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 35 | 23 | 133 | 534 | 131 | 41 | 28 | 66% | 3.8 | 24.9% | 7.2% | 17.7% | 4.9% | 3.85 | 4.63 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 35 | 23 | 133 | 534 | 131 | 41 | 28 | 66% | 3.8 | 24.5% | 7.7% | 16.9% | 5.2% | 3.85 | 4.79 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 3 | 3 | 15 | 67 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 100% | 5.1 | 19.4% | 4.5% | 14.9% | 4.2% | 5.87 | 4.31 | +0.0 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 3 | 3 | 15 | 67 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 100% | 5.1 | 19.4% | 4.5% | 14.9% | 4.5% | 5.87 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 10 | 10 | 47 | 182 | 42 | 8 | 7 | 100% | 4.7 | 21.7% | 4.7% | 17.0% | 4.2% | 2.68 | 4.18 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 10 | 10 | 47 | 182 | 42 | 8 | 7 | 100% | 4.7 | 23.1% | 4.4% | 18.7% | 3.8% | 2.68 | 3.76 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 36 | 0 | 46 | 184 | 48 | 10 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 26.0% | 5.6% | 20.3% | 2.8% | 2.93 | 3.17 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 40 | 0 | 42 | 175 | 40 | 10 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 5.9% | 16.7% | 3.8% | 4.21 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 36 | 0 | 38 | 161 | 35 | 10 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 6.4% | 15.4% | 4.1% | 4.50 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | BAL | 33 | 0 | 35 | 147 | 31 | 10 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.8% | 6.9% | 14.0% | 4.4% | 4.80 | 4.99 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 40 | 10 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 5.9% | 16.7% | 3.8% | 4.21 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 35 | 10 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 6.4% | 15.4% | 4.1% | 4.50 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | BAL | 33 | 0 | 35 | 148 | 31 | 10 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.8% | 6.9% | 14.0% | 4.4% | 4.80 | 4.99 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 243 | 50 | 475 | 1926 | 440 | 120 | 82 | 21% | 2.0 | 22.9% | 6.2% | 16.6% | 4.2% | 4.01 | 4.28 | +6.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 102 | 21 | 200 | 810 | 185 | 50 | 35 | 21% | 2.0 | 22.9% | 6.2% | 16.6% | 4.2% | 4.01 | 4.28 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 202 | 106 | 660 | 2652 | 590 | 190 | 82 | 52% | 3.3 | 22.2% | 7.1% | 15.1% | 3.1% | 3.43 | 3.82 | +12.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 61 | 32 | 200 | 803 | 179 | 57 | 25 | 52% | 3.3 | 22.2% | 7.1% | 15.1% | 3.1% | 3.43 | 3.82 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tyler Wells (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.42 | 21.9% | 5.4% | 3.8% | — | 4.68 | 21.8% | 15.4% | 114 | +0.26 | — | — | — |
| Josh Lindblom R 2025 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.28 | 18.7% | 5.5% | 3.8% | .333 | 3.66 | 27.2% | 18.8% | 45 | -0.62 | 3.66 | 348 | 67 |
| Robert Stock R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.10 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 3.4% | .301 | 7.89 | 14.7% | -1.9% | 23 | +3.79 | 0.76 | 348 | 60 |
| Josh A. Smith R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.57 | 20.8% | 6.4% | 4.4% | .341 | 3.72 | 17.4% | 8.6% | 59 | -0.85 | 2.71 | 598 | 59 |
| Steve Johnson R 2024 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.30 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 152 | 57 |
| David Hale R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.26 | 16.4% | 5.5% | 1.6% | .307 | 4.29 | 18.3% | 12.1% | 44 | +1.03 | 3.26 | 493 | 56 |
| Joe Blanton R 2029 · 3.30 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.30 | 22.4% | 4.6% | 2.7% | .272 | 3.78 | 23.5% | 17.0% | 124 | +0.48 | 3.13 | 240 | 56 |
| Brad Peacock R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.04 | 25.1% | 8.1% | 3.7% | .261 | 4.12 | 22.8% | 12.5% | 96 | +0.08 | 2.88 | 533 | 56 |
| Rob Wooten R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.44 | 17.2% | 3.1% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.63 | 17.5% | 13.8% | 66 | +1.19 | 3.19 | 191 | 55 |
| Phil Hughes R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SP- | 5.03 | 15.6% | 4.5% | 4.9% | .328 | 6.34 | 21.1% | 15.2% | 33 | +1.31 | 4.61 | 301 | 55 |
| Vinny Nittoli R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.59 | 27.1% | 7.1% | 3.4% | .268 | 5.01 | 24.4% | 14.6% | 112 | +1.42 | 3.59 | 331 | 55 |
| Mitch Lively R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.49 | 17.0% | 6.4% | 1.8% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 158 | 53 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 53 |
| Tim Dillard R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 53 |
| Mark Leiter Jr. R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.89 | 26.9% | 7.8% | 3.8% | .259 | 3.09 | 29.2% | 20.8% | 171 | -0.80 | 2.52 | 826 | 53 |
| Elian Leyva R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 158 | 52 |
| Craig Stammen R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.86 | 17.0% | 3.7% | 3.1% | .333 | 3.42 | 23.9% | 18.6% | 241 | -0.44 | 1.87 | 407 | 52 |
| Mike Bolsinger R 2024 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.30 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 327 | 52 |
| A.J. Morris R 2024 · 4.92 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.92 | 16.9% | 6.9% | 4.3% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 123 | 52 |
| Austin Pruitt R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.27 | 21.1% | 5.9% | 4.0% | .292 | 4.23 | 17.1% | 11.8% | 167 | -0.04 | 2.95 | 819 | 52 |
| Yusmeiro Petit R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.60 | 18.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | .286 | 3.37 | 24.1% | 20.4% | 267 | -1.23 | 2.64 | 517 | 51 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 40 | 21.8% | 6.1% | 1.55 | 4.40 |
| Eli Morgan ('24) | 4 | 66 | 23.8% | 6.4% | 1.46 | 3.97 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Mike Mayers ('23) | 5 | 47 | 24.3% | 7.8% | 1.50 | 4.47 |
| Adam Morgan ('21) | 6 | 59 | 20.5% | 7.1% | 1.56 | 4.77 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Erik Swanson ('24) | 5 | 51 | 26.2% | 6.5% | 1.57 | 3.70 |