Tyler Wells — OGILVIE

Tyler Wells P Tampa Bay Rays

Age 31 RHP 6'8" / 270 lbs MLB

2026 ROS PROJECTION73 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9587vR 79

ERA3.60

FIP3.84

K%24.3%

BB%5.7%

K-BB%18.6%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 77 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL7070

CMD5555

K†5055

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3493.4

Whiff%

p8430.6%

p7126.0%

xwOBA vs

p900.266

SL+1.0 (15%)

CT+0.9 (30%)

CU (4%)

FB-1.2 (28%)

CH-2.0 (22%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	21	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	10	10	47	202	59	17	0	100%	4.7	19.9%	10.5%	9.3%	0.0%	3.23	2.76	—
2016	21	ROK RAW	Elizabethton Twins	10	10	47	202	59	17	0	100%	4.7	29.2%	8.4%	20.8%	0.0%	3.23	1.68	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	15	89	368	108	27	6	83%	4.9	21.5%	8.8%	12.7%	2.2%	3.03	3.58	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	15	89	368	108	27	6	83%	4.9	29.3%	7.3%	22.0%	1.6%	3.03	2.46	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	119	460	121	31	7	95%	5.4	20.6%	7.6%	13.0%	1.8%	2.49	3.31	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	21	119	460	121	31	7	95%	5.4	26.3%	6.7%	19.6%	1.5%	2.49	2.61	—
2021	26	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	44	0	57	224	65	12	9	0%	1.3	29.0%	5.4%	23.7%	3.6%	4.11	3.32	+0.8
2021	26	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	44	0	57	224	65	12	9	0%	1.3	29.0%	5.4%	23.7%	4.0%	4.11	3.50	+0.7
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	106	431	79	28	16	100%	4.4	18.0%	6.6%	11.3%	3.8%	4.25	4.51	+0.5
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	106	431	79	28	16	100%	4.4	18.3%	6.5%	11.8%	3.7%	4.25	4.36	+0.7
2023	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	35	23	133	534	131	41	28	66%	3.8	24.9%	7.2%	17.7%	5.4%	3.85	4.86	+0.1
2023	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	35	23	133	534	131	41	28	66%	3.8	24.9%	7.2%	17.7%	5.4%	3.85	4.86	+0.1
2023	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	35	23	133	534	131	41	28	66%	3.8	24.5%	7.7%	16.9%	5.2%	3.85	4.79	+0.2
2024	29	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	3	3	15	67	13	3	3	100%	5.1	19.4%	4.5%	14.9%	4.5%	5.87	4.50	+0.1
2024	29	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	3	3	15	67	13	3	3	100%	5.1	19.4%	4.5%	14.9%	4.5%	5.87	4.50	+0.1
2024	29	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	3	3	15	67	13	3	3	100%	5.1	19.4%	4.5%	14.9%	4.5%	5.87	4.53	+0.1
2025	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	10	10	47	182	42	8	7	100%	4.7	21.1%	4.2%	16.9%	4.2%	2.68	4.14	+0.4
2025	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	10	10	47	182	42	8	7	100%	4.7	21.1%	4.2%	16.9%	4.2%	2.68	4.14	+0.4
2025	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	10	10	47	182	42	8	7	100%	4.7	23.1%	4.4%	18.7%	3.8%	2.68	3.76	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			156	50	388	1543	361	96	65	32%	2.5	23.4%	6.2%	17.2%	4.2%	3.68	4.16	+1.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	58	0	73	284	74	17	8	0%	1.3	26.0%	6.1%	19.9%	3.0%	2.33	3.31	+1.1
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	58	0	73	284	74	17	8	0%	1.3	26.0%	6.1%	19.9%	3.0%	2.33	3.31	+1.1
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	AAA RAW	TB	1	0	1	7	2	0	0	0%	1.3	28.6%	0.0%	28.6%	0.0%	0.00	0.69	—
2026	31	MLB RAW	TB	57	0	72	277	72	17	8	0%	1.3	26.0%	6.1%	19.9%	2.9%	2.38	3.27	+1.1
SO FAR	31	MLB RAW	TB	57	0	72	277	72	17	8	0%	1.3	26.0%	6.1%	19.9%	2.9%	2.38	3.27	+1.1
ROS	31	MLB MLE	TB	4	0	4	17	4	1	1	0%	1.0	24.3%	5.7%	18.6%	3.8%	3.60	3.84	+0.0
ROS	31	MLB CTX	TB	4	0	4	17	4	1	1	0%	1.0	24.3%	5.7%	18.6%	3.8%	3.60	3.84	+0.0
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	TB	—	—	77	301	78	18	9	—	—	26.0%	6.0%	20.0%	2.9%	2.40	3.34	+1.3
FULL	31	MLB A+C	TB	—	—	76	321	78	18	9	—	—	24.3%	5.6%	18.7%	2.7%	2.44	3.23	+1.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	TB	40	0	42	175	40	11	7	0%	1.0	22.9%	6.1%	16.9%	3.8%	4.19	4.39	+0.1
2027	32	MLB CTX	TB	40	0	42	177	41	11	7	0%	1.1	22.9%	6.1%	16.9%	3.8%	4.19	4.39	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		199	50	434	1735	405	108	72	25%	2.2	23.4%	6.2%	17.2%	4.2%	3.73	4.20	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		92	23	200	800	187	50	33	25%	2.2	23.4%	6.2%	17.2%	4.2%	3.73	4.20	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		224	106	688	2752	614	196	88	47%	3.1	22.3%	7.1%	15.2%	3.2%	3.35	3.88	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		65	31	200	800	179	57	26	47%	3.1	22.3%	7.1%	15.2%	3.2%	3.35	3.88	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Wells (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.46	21.6%	5.3%	3.9%	—	4.39	22.9%	16.9%	42	-0.07	—	—	—
Josh Lindblom R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	30	SW	3.91	18.7%	5.5%	3.1%	.333	3.50	27.2%	18.8%	45	-0.41	3.50	348	69
Robert Stock R 2021 · 4.18 FIP	31	SW	4.18	23.0%	8.5%	3.5%	.301	7.24	13.8%	-0.4%	23	+3.06	2.74	378	64
Josh A. Smith R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	31	SW	4.65	20.8%	6.4%	4.5%	.341	3.67	17.4%	8.6%	59	-0.98	2.91	598	61
Vinny Nittoli R 2022 · 3.66 FIP	31	SU	3.66	27.1%	7.1%	3.6%	.268	4.93	23.0%	14.6%	112	+1.27	3.66	331	60
Austin Pruitt R 2021 · 3.99 FIP	31	SU	3.99	21.1%	5.9%	3.5%	.292	4.28	16.8%	11.9%	167	+0.29	2.94	819	59
Yusmeiro Petit R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	31	SU	4.60	18.5%	4.5%	4.5%	.286	3.41	24.1%	20.4%	267	-1.19	2.56	517	58
Steve Johnson R 2017 · 4.53 FIP	29	SW	4.53	20.3%	8.9%	3.7%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	2.22	152	58
Daniel Hudson R 2018 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.3%	8.6%	2.9%	.246	3.69	28.8%	20.4%	145	-0.22	1.68	468	58
David Hale R 2019 · 3.30 FIP	31	SW	3.30	16.4%	5.5%	1.6%	.307	4.23	18.3%	12.1%	44	+0.93	3.30	493	57
Craig Stammen R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	32	SU	4.04	17.0%	3.7%	3.5%	.333	3.27	23.9%	18.6%	241	-0.77	1.82	407	57
Rob Wooten R 2016 · 3.60 FIP	31	SW	3.60	17.2%	3.1%	2.9%	.288	4.65	17.5%	13.8%	66	+1.05	3.19	191	57
Joe Blanton R 2015 · 3.45 FIP	34	SW	3.45	22.4%	4.6%	3.0%	.272	3.70	23.5%	17.0%	124	+0.25	3.01	240	57
Tommy Nance R 2022 · 3.28 FIP	31	SU	3.28	29.1%	9.2%	2.7%	.345	2.78	22.9%	17.5%	118	-0.50	2.12	354	56
Ross Ohlendorf R 2015 · 3.30 FIP	32	SU	3.30	23.7%	7.2%	2.3%	.342	4.93	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.63	3.30	122	56
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.92	176	55
Logan Ondrusek R 2018 · 5.51 FIP	33	SU	5.51	23.8%	7.4%	6.3%	.353	5.51	17.5%	9.2%	120	+0.00	4.34	138	55
Rubby De La Rosa R 2019 · 4.21 FIP	30	SU	4.21	27.7%	8.0%	4.4%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	4.04	281	55
David Robertson R 2016 · 3.27 FIP	31	SU	3.27	28.1%	10.5%	2.2%	.297	2.39	34.6%	26.8%	138	-0.88	2.00	494	55
Josh Fields R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	31	SU	3.98	26.9%	6.3%	4.3%	.216	5.01	20.5%	12.9%	66	+1.03	1.90	238	55
Tim Dillard R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	32	SW	3.58	15.9%	7.7%	1.5%	.330	3.85	16.7%	8.1%	144	+0.27	3.13	352	55

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	43	22.3%	5.7%	1.48	4.21
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Erik Swanson ('24)	1.3	51	26.2%	6.5%	1.57	3.70
Adbert Alzolay ('23)	1.1	70	26.1%	7.0%	1.32	3.84
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Blake Parker ('21)	1.2	60	26.6%	7.3%	1.40	3.36