Trevor Megill — OGILVIE

Trevor Megill P Milwaukee Brewers

Age 32 RHP 6'8" / 253 lbs MLB Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 0.9 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION56 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7769vR 61

ERA2.70

FIP2.55

K%30.4%

BB%6.2%

K-BB%24.2%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL5050

CMD6565

K†7070

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.0

Whiff%

p8731.1%

p8628.8%

xwOBA vs

p900.259

CU (36%)

FB-3.2 (64%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2021

Service 4.012 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.4M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.4M
2027	Arb-3	$6M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.4M		$4M	+$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	21	ROK MLE	AZL Padres	7	0	11	50	16	3	1	0%	1.6	21.8%	7.5%	14.3%	2.8%	3.97	3.75	—
2015	21	ROK RAW	AZL Padres	7	0	11	50	16	3	1	0%	1.6	32.0%	6.0%	26.0%	2.0%	3.97	2.22	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	0	9	41	9	5	0	0%	1.8	22.0%	12.2%	9.8%	0.0%	6.00	2.79	—
2017	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	0	9	41	9	5	0	0%	1.8	22.0%	12.2%	9.8%	0.0%	6.00	2.77	—
2018	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	0	38	150	42	8	5	0%	1.5	21.9%	6.1%	15.8%	5.1%	3.35	4.80	—
2018	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	0	38	150	42	8	5	0%	1.5	28.0%	5.3%	22.7%	3.3%	3.35	3.23	—
2019	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	39	0	61	261	87	22	5	0%	1.6	28.4%	9.1%	19.3%	2.6%	3.86	3.29	—
2019	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	39	0	61	261	87	22	5	0%	1.6	33.3%	8.4%	24.9%	1.9%	3.86	2.39	—
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	38	178	50	13	9	0%	0.9	26.7%	7.5%	19.3%	5.2%	7.17	4.66	-0.0
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	38	178	50	13	9	0%	0.9	28.1%	7.3%	20.8%	5.1%	7.17	4.59	-0.0
2022	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	57	243	65	20	6	0%	1.2	25.0%	8.7%	16.3%	2.0%	4.42	3.20	+0.9
2022	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	57	243	65	20	6	0%	1.2	26.7%	8.2%	18.5%	2.5%	4.42	3.24	+0.9
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	2	55	244	86	28	6	4%	1.1	32.9%	10.8%	22.1%	2.8%	5.37	3.22	+0.9
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	2	55	244	86	28	6	4%	1.1	32.9%	10.8%	22.1%	2.8%	5.37	3.22	+0.9
2023	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	2	55	244	86	28	6	4%	1.1	35.2%	11.5%	23.8%	2.5%	5.37	2.92	+1.1
2024	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	52	1	50	199	55	12	4	2%	1.0	27.3%	5.5%	21.9%	2.1%	2.50	2.63	+1.2
2024	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	52	1	50	199	55	12	4	2%	1.0	27.3%	5.5%	21.9%	2.1%	2.50	2.63	+1.2
2024	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	52	1	50	199	55	12	4	2%	1.0	27.6%	6.0%	21.6%	2.0%	2.50	2.66	+1.1
2025	31	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	50	0	47	192	60	14	3	0%	0.9	31.2%	7.3%	24.0%	1.5%	2.49	2.20	+1.3
2025	31	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	50	0	47	192	60	14	3	0%	0.9	31.2%	7.3%	24.0%	1.5%	2.49	2.20	+1.3
2025	31	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	50	0	47	192	60	14	3	0%	0.9	31.2%	7.3%	24.0%	1.6%	2.49	2.27	+1.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			253	2	252	1053	304	72	21	1%	1.0	28.9%	6.8%	22.0%	2.0%	3.67	2.63	+5.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	32	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	57	0	56	219	63	12	1	0%	1.0	28.8%	5.5%	23.3%	0.4%	2.59	1.60	+2.0
YTD	32	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	57	0	56	219	63	12	1	0%	1.0	28.8%	5.5%	23.3%	0.4%	2.59	1.60	+2.0
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	32	MLB RAW	MIL	57	0	56	219	63	12	1	0%	1.0	28.8%	5.5%	23.3%	0.5%	2.59	1.62	+2.0
SO FAR	32	MLB RAW	MIL	57	0	56	219	63	12	1	0%	1.0	28.8%	5.5%	23.3%	0.5%	2.59	1.62	+2.0
ROS	32	MLB MLE	MIL	4	0	4	19	6	1	0	0%	1.1	30.4%	6.2%	24.2%	2.2%	2.70	2.55	+0.1
ROS	32	MLB CTX	MIL	4	0	4	17	5	1	0	0%	1.0	30.4%	6.2%	24.2%	2.4%	2.76	2.61	+0.1
2026 TOT	32	MLB MLE	MIL	—	—	60	238	69	13	1	—	—	28.9%	5.5%	23.4%	0.6%	2.60	1.67	+2.3
FULL	32	MLB A+C	MIL	—	—	60	254	69	13	1	—	—	27.1%	5.2%	21.9%	0.6%	2.60	1.78	+2.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	MIL	46	0	48	205	61	14	4	0%	1.1	30.0%	6.7%	23.3%	2.1%	2.91	2.96	+1.0
2028	34	MLB MLE	MIL	42	0	44	186	54	13	5	0%	1.1	29.1%	7.2%	21.9%	2.4%	3.12	3.26	+0.7
2027	33	MLB CTX	MIL	44	0	46	194	58	13	4	0%	1.0	30.0%	6.7%	23.3%	2.2%	2.97	3.02	+0.9
2028	34	MLB CTX	MIL	38	0	40	169	49	12	4	0%	1.1	29.1%	7.2%	21.9%	2.5%	3.19	3.33	+0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		339	2	343	1435	417	98	30	1%	1.0	29.1%	6.9%	22.2%	2.1%	3.51	2.66	+7.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		198	1	200	837	243	57	18	1%	1.0	29.1%	6.9%	22.2%	2.1%	3.51	2.66	+4.5
Career	—	MLE		373	3	422	1777	493	139	45	1%	1.1	27.7%	7.8%	19.9%	2.5%	3.95	3.13	+7.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		177	1	200	843	234	66	21	1%	1.1	27.7%	7.8%	19.9%	2.5%	3.95	3.13	+4.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trevor Megill (OGILVIE)	—	—	2.95	32.4%	6.7%	2.5%	—	3.10	29.6%	22.6%	93	+0.15	—	—	—
Mark Lowe R 2015 · 2.37 FIP	32	SU	2.37	28.4%	5.1%	1.9%	.302	5.22	19.2%	9.9%	98	+2.85	2.37	153	65
Pedro Strop R 2017 · 3.08 FIP	32	SU	3.08	26.0%	10.0%	1.7%	.263	3.43	25.3%	16.4%	101	+0.35	2.56	277	64
John Axford R 2015 · 3.20 FIP	32	SU	3.20	24.8%	11.2%	1.4%	.333	3.97	21.5%	11.1%	141	+0.77	3.20	197	64
Wade Davis R 2018 · 3.33 FIP	32	SU	3.33	29.9%	10.0%	2.7%	.235	5.00	20.2%	8.1%	85	+1.67	2.00	320	63
Josh Lueke R 2015 · 2.29 FIP	30	SU	2.29	30.0%	4.1%	2.2%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	62
Blake Wood R 2017 · 3.44 FIP	31	SU	3.44	25.3%	9.3%	2.4%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	210	62
Jake Petricka R 2019 · 3.04 FIP	31	SU	3.04	23.4%	7.7%	1.7%	.323	4.07	18.8%	10.8%	60	+1.03	3.04	252	62
Ryan Madson R 2015 · 2.99 FIP	34	SU	2.99	23.4%	5.2%	2.2%	.244	2.96	23.9%	18.7%	176	-0.03	1.42	240	61
Oliver Drake R 2019 · 3.25 FIP	32	SU	3.25	33.5%	8.1%	3.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	2.26	317	61
Fernando Cruz R 2022 · 2.89 FIP	32	SU	2.89	27.4%	10.0%	1.5%	.254	2.76	36.3%	25.3%	181	-0.13	2.50	371	60
Ross Ohlendorf R 2015 · 3.30 FIP	32	SU	3.30	23.7%	7.2%	2.3%	.342	4.93	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.63	3.30	122	59
C.C. Lee R 2018 · 3.03 FIP	31	SU	3.03	34.7%	9.1%	3.1%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.59	121	59
David Hernandez R 2017 · 2.60 FIP	32	SU	2.60	24.3%	4.2%	1.8%	.295	3.25	26.1%	18.9%	107	+0.65	2.60	268	59
Santiago Casilla R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	35	SU	3.50	25.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.290	3.97	22.4%	12.7%	161	+0.47	3.50	219	59
Juan Nicasio R 2019 · 3.23 FIP	32	SU	3.23	20.7%	7.4%	1.7%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	2.46	338	59
Blake Parker R 2017 · 2.52 FIP	32	SU	2.52	33.9%	6.3%	2.7%	.228	4.20	26.6%	18.8%	144	+1.68	2.52	339	58
Jonathan Broxton R 2016 · 3.77 FIP	32	SU	3.77	22.0%	7.3%	2.9%	.256	4.34	20.5%	9.0%	16	+0.57	3.67	137	58
Ryan Brasier R 2020 · 2.97 FIP	32	SU	2.97	27.3%	9.1%	1.9%	.324	3.30	23.4%	17.1%	134	+0.33	2.31	426	58
Chad Gaudin R 2016 · 2.67 FIP	33	SU	2.67	22.8%	6.8%	1.2%	.325	3.15	21.8%	13.9%	58	+0.48	2.02	102	57
Bud Norris R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	32	SU	3.51	27.7%	9.0%	2.9%	.298	3.65	27.3%	20.0%	58	+0.14	3.51	316	57

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	48	30.6%	6.9%	0.90	3.04
Seunghwan Oh ('18)	1.0	69	27.7%	5.9%	1.00	2.78
Sean Doolittle ('21)	1.2	49	28.7%	6.2%	1.18	3.31
Felipe Vázquez ('19)	1.7	66	29.8%	7.5%	0.60	2.61
Diego Castillo ('22)	1.3	52	28.1%	8.9%	1.07	3.12
Keone Kela ('19)	1.1	43	30.1%	9.4%	0.92	3.23
Giovanny Gallegos ('24)	1.5	52	29.4%	6.6%	1.19	3.46