Trevor Megill

P Milwaukee Brewers

Age 33 RHP 6'8" / 253 lbs MLB Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 1.1 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MANArb-3FA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	30	MIX3 levels	52	1	50	2.50	2.66	27.6%	6.0%	1.1	K 27.3% · BB 5.5% · FIP 2.63
2025	31	MLBMIL	50	0	47	2.49	2.27	31.2%	7.3%	1.3
2026	32	MLBMIL	63	0	62	2.63	1.66	28.5%	5.0%	2.2
2027PROJ	33	MLBMIL	52	0	55	2.77	2.58	31.0%	5.3%	1.4
2028PROJ95% MLB	34	MLBMIL	46	0	48	2.90	2.94	30.1%	5.9%	1.0
2029PROJ91% MLB	35	MLBMIL	37	0	39	3.14	3.29	29.2%	6.4%	0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service5.012First FA2028

2027Arb-3$9M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

xwOBA vs90

K%84

Form2.01 ERA (proj 2.77) · K 24.1% (proj 31.0%) · BB 4.8% (proj 5.3%) ▼▼ last 90d · 22 IP through Oct 27

CompsChris Martin (age 33) · Takashi Saito (age 36) · Mike Adams (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7668vR 60

ERA2.77

FIP2.58

K%31.0%

BB%5.3%

K-BB%25.7%

Proj IP55

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL5050

CMD6565

K†7070

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.9

Whiff%

p8330.5%

p8428.5%

xwOBA vs

p900.252

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2021

Service 5.012 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-3	$9M	+1.4	$11M	+$2M
Totals		$9M		$11M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	21	ROK MLE	AZL Padres	7	0	11	50	16	3	1	0%	1.6	21.8%	7.5%	14.3%	2.8%	3.97	3.75	—
2015	21	ROK RAW	AZL Padres	7	0	11	50	16	3	1	0%	1.6	32.0%	6.0%	26.0%	2.0%	3.97	2.22	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	0	9	41	9	5	0	0%	1.8	22.0%	12.2%	9.8%	0.0%	6.00	2.79	—
2017	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	0	9	41	9	5	0	0%	1.8	22.0%	12.2%	9.8%	0.0%	6.00	2.77	—
2018	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	0	38	150	42	8	5	0%	1.5	21.9%	6.1%	15.8%	5.1%	3.35	4.80	—
2018	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	0	38	150	42	8	5	0%	1.5	28.0%	5.3%	22.7%	3.3%	3.35	3.23	—
2019	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	39	0	61	261	87	22	5	0%	1.6	28.4%	9.1%	19.3%	2.6%	3.86	3.29	—
2019	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	39	0	61	261	87	22	5	0%	1.6	33.3%	8.4%	24.9%	1.9%	3.86	2.39	—
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	38	178	50	13	9	0%	0.9	26.7%	7.5%	19.3%	5.2%	7.17	4.66	-0.0
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	38	178	50	13	9	0%	0.9	28.1%	7.3%	20.8%	5.1%	7.17	4.59	-0.0
2022	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	57	243	65	20	6	0%	1.2	25.0%	8.7%	16.3%	2.0%	4.42	3.20	+0.9
2022	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	57	243	65	20	6	0%	1.2	26.7%	8.2%	18.5%	2.5%	4.42	3.24	+0.9
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	2	55	244	86	28	6	4%	1.1	33.3%	10.8%	22.5%	2.8%	5.37	3.18	+0.9
2023	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	2	55	244	86	28	6	4%	1.1	35.2%	11.5%	23.8%	2.5%	5.37	2.92	+1.1
2024	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	52	1	50	199	55	12	4	2%	1.0	27.3%	5.5%	21.9%	2.1%	2.50	2.63	+1.2
2024	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	52	1	50	199	55	12	4	2%	1.0	27.3%	5.5%	21.9%	2.1%	2.50	2.63	+1.2
2024	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	52	1	50	199	55	12	4	2%	1.0	27.6%	6.0%	21.6%	2.0%	2.50	2.66	+1.1
2025	31	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	50	0	47	192	60	14	3	0%	0.9	31.2%	7.3%	24.0%	1.5%	2.49	2.20	+1.3
2025	31	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	50	0	47	192	60	14	3	0%	0.9	31.2%	7.3%	24.0%	1.5%	2.49	2.20	+1.3
2025	31	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	50	0	47	192	60	14	3	0%	0.9	31.2%	7.3%	24.0%	1.6%	2.49	2.27	+1.3
2026	32	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	63	0	62	242	69	12	1	0%	1.0	28.5%	5.0%	23.6%	0.4%	2.63	1.54	+2.2
2026	32	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	63	0	62	242	69	12	1	0%	1.0	28.5%	5.0%	23.6%	0.4%	2.63	1.54	+2.2
2026	32	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	63	0	62	242	69	12	1	0%	1.0	28.5%	5.0%	23.6%	0.4%	2.63	1.66	+2.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			259	2	258	1076	310	72	21	1%	1.0	28.8%	6.7%	22.1%	2.0%	3.66	2.59	+6.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	MIL	52	0	55	232	72	12	4	0%	1.1	31.0%	5.3%	25.7%	1.9%	2.77	2.58	+1.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	MIL	48	0	50	212	64	12	5	0%	1.0	30.1%	5.9%	24.3%	2.2%	2.84	2.88	+1.1
2029	35	MLB MLE	MIL	41	0	43	183	53	12	5	0%	1.1	29.2%	6.4%	22.8%	2.5%	3.07	3.22	+0.7
2028	34	MLB CTX	MIL	46	0	48	203	61	12	5	0%	1.0	30.1%	5.9%	24.3%	2.3%	2.90	2.94	+1.0
2029	35	MLB CTX	MIL	37	0	39	165	48	11	4	0%	1.1	29.2%	6.4%	22.8%	2.7%	3.14	3.29	+0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		342	2	345	1443	419	94	30	1%	1.0	29.0%	6.5%	22.5%	2.1%	3.49	2.62	+8.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		198	1	200	836	243	54	17	1%	1.0	29.0%	6.5%	22.5%	2.1%	3.49	2.62	+4.6
Career	—	MLE		379	3	428	1800	500	139	45	1%	1.1	27.8%	7.7%	20.0%	2.5%	3.94	3.10	+7.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		177	1	200	842	234	65	21	1%	1.1	27.8%	7.7%	20.0%	2.5%	3.94	3.10	+4.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AAANashville Sounds · 21 IPFIP 4.51 → 5.21 (+0.70)K% 35.4% → 30.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.42%	—	×0.860	30.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.67%	—	×0.900	15.00%
HR / BF /BF	4.17%	÷0.905	×1.100	5.07%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 81).

Result: FIP 4.51 → 5.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASt. Paul Saints · 12 IPFIP 3.37 → 4.33 (+0.96)K% 34.0% → 30.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.04%	—	×0.880	29.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.38%	—	×1.050	6.70%
HR / BF /BF	4.26%	÷0.881	×1.100	5.31%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 76).

Result: FIP 3.37 → 4.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAIowa Cubs · 14 IPFIP 3.37 → 3.78 (+0.41)K% 31.7% → 27.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.75%	—	×0.880	27.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.52%	—	×1.050	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	3.17%	÷1.081	×1.100	3.23%

Result: FIP 3.37 → 3.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 50 IPFIP 2.72 → 3.29 (+0.58)K% 32.3% → 28.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.27%	—	×0.880	28.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.64%	—	×1.050	9.07%
HR / BF /BF	2.27%	÷0.950	×1.100	2.63%

Result: FIP 2.72 → 3.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 6 IPFIP 1.48 → 2.07 (+0.59)K% 30.8% → 24.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.77%	—	×0.810	24.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×1.100	8.46%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.337	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 167).

Result: FIP 1.48 → 2.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AASan Antonio Missions · 17 IPFIP 4.78 → 5.78 (+1.00)K% 12.3% → 10.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.33%	—	×0.810	9.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.59%	—	×1.100	10.55%
HR / BF /BF	2.74%	÷0.824	×1.200	3.99%

Result: FIP 4.78 → 5.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Lake Elsinore Storm · 20 IPFIP 1.83 → 3.81 (+1.98)K% 43.8% → 33.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	43.84%	—	×0.770	33.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	1.37%	—	×1.150	1.58%
HR / BF /BF	4.11%	÷0.839	×1.250	6.12%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 68).

Result: FIP 1.83 → 3.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 ROKAZL Padres · 6 IPFIP 2.61 → 3.60 (+0.99)K% 23.1% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.08%	—	×0.680	15.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.54%	—	×1.250	14.42%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.61 → 3.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trevor Megill (OGILVIE)	—	—	2.58	31.0%	5.3%	1.9%	—	3.04	29.7%	23.6%	93	+0.46	—	—	—
Chris Martin R 2019 · 3.14 FIP	33	SU	3.14	30.1%	2.3%	4.2%	.314	2.35	27.1%	24.7%	117	-0.79	1.76	431	63
Takashi Saito R 2006 · 1.50 FIP	36	SU	1.50	35.3%	6.6%	1.0%	.260	2.58	28.6%	21.4%	167	+1.08	1.50	338	61
Mike Adams R 2011 · 2.35 FIP	33	SU	2.35	26.7%	4.3%	1.7%	.210	3.58	21.5%	13.3%	96	+1.23	1.36	405	60
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2001 · 2.79 FIP	33	SU	2.79	23.8%	3.4%	2.3%	.228	2.95	25.8%	18.5%	94	+0.16	2.76	223	60
Seunghwan Oh R 2016 · 1.87 FIP	34	SU	1.87	32.9%	4.8%	1.7%	.263	3.63	24.1%	19.6%	146	+1.76	1.87	226	59
Fernando Cruz R 2023 · 2.50 FIP	33	SU	2.50	35.1%	10.0%	2.0%	.313	3.21	34.3%	22.3%	169	+0.71	2.50	371	58
Joe Nelson R 2008 · 3.08 FIP	33	SU	3.08	26.1%	7.8%	2.2%	.252	5.35	19.8%	5.5%	40	+2.27	3.08	139	57
Brendan Donnelly R 2004 · 3.05 FIP	33	SU	3.05	32.6%	8.7%	2.9%	.302	3.88	19.0%	11.8%	150	+0.83	2.23	385	56
Dale Thayer R 2014 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	23.4%	4.9%	3.3%	.243	4.34	15.8%	8.8%	38	+0.78	2.75	239	54
Robert Suarez R 2024 · 3.36 FIP	33	SU	3.36	22.9%	5.8%	2.6%	.254	2.54	25.3%	20.3%	104	-0.82	1.95	291	54
Jason Urquidez R 2016 · 2.39 FIP	33	SU	2.39	22.6%	5.3%	1.0%	.328	1.25	28.2%	24.0%	46	-1.14	1.25	123	53
Tony Barnette R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	22.6%	7.1%	2.7%	.335	2.61	25.0%	20.2%	26	-0.95	2.61	144	51
Marcos Mateo R 2015 · 3.12 FIP	31	SU	3.12	28.0%	8.0%	2.5%	.247	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	104	51
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2018 · 3.45 FIP	34	SU	3.45	22.5%	7.3%	2.4%	.242	3.97	24.6%	15.2%	65	+0.52	3.45	132	50
Huascar Brazobán R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	33	SU	3.52	25.3%	11.3%	2.1%	.304	3.54	21.9%	11.8%	195	+0.02	3.08	370	49
Michael Kohn R 2019 · 3.34 FIP	33	SU	3.34	36.1%	8.4%	4.0%	.244	—	—	—	—	—	3.32	133	49
James Hoyt R 2020 · 2.74 FIP	33	SU	2.74	32.3%	11.3%	1.7%	.235	6.83	17.8%	6.0%	35	+4.09	1.61	312	48
Tony Pena Jr. R 2015 · 2.80 FIP	34	SU	2.80	18.8%	2.7%	1.7%	.294	3.02	18.7%	14.4%	82	+0.22	2.80	128	48
Carlos Fisher R 2016 · 2.48 FIP	33	SU	2.48	26.5%	10.0%	0.6%	.352	3.91	18.1%	5.2%	44	+1.43	2.48	245	47
Zack Segovia R 2016 · 3.33 FIP	33	SU	3.33	20.2%	5.9%	2.2%	.312	4.55	17.6%	4.0%	57	+1.22	3.33	144	47

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	45	29.3%	7.0%	0.79	3.37
Will Harris ('21)	2.1	60	26.5%	6.7%	0.86	2.94
J.J. Putz ('14)	2.8	57	25.7%	7.9%	0.79	3.08
Mike Schooler ('88-'93, 5 WAR*)	1.5	49	26.9%*	8.0%*	0.96*	3.68*
Sean Doolittle ('22)	2.3	56	29.0%	5.7%	0.96	3.20
Joe Sambito ('76-'87, 8 WAR*)	3.1	70	26.8%*	7.5%*	1.06*	3.65*
Steve Hamilton ('61-'72, 10 WAR*)	3.3	66	25.2%*	7.7%*	0.92*	3.71*