Trevor Megill
P
Milwaukee Brewers
Age 32
RHP
6'8" / 253 lbs
MLB
Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027
peak 0.8 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION36 act + 17 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7465vR 55
ERA2.42
FIP2.29
K%32.2%
BB%6.6%
K-BB%25.6%
ROS IP17
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p9097.9
Whiff%
p9032.4%
K%
p9031.7%
xwOBA vs
p900.247
CU (36%)
FB-3.2 (64%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | AZL Padres | 7 | 0 | 11 | 50 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.6 | 21.8% | 7.5% | 14.3% | 2.8% | 3.97 | 3.75 | — |
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | AZL Padres | 7 | 0 | 11 | 50 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.6 | 32.0% | 6.0% | 26.0% | 2.0% | 3.97 | 2.22 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 0 | 9 | 41 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 1.8 | 22.0% | 12.2% | 9.8% | 0.0% | 6.00 | 2.79 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 0 | 9 | 41 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 1.8 | 22.0% | 12.2% | 9.8% | 0.0% | 6.00 | 2.77 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 0 | 38 | 150 | 42 | 8 | 5 | 0% | 1.5 | 21.9% | 6.1% | 15.8% | 6.3% | 3.35 | 5.49 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 0 | 38 | 150 | 42 | 8 | 5 | 0% | 1.5 | 28.0% | 5.3% | 22.7% | 3.3% | 3.35 | 3.23 | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 39 | 0 | 61 | 261 | 87 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 1.6 | 28.4% | 9.1% | 19.3% | 2.8% | 3.86 | 3.37 | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 39 | 0 | 61 | 261 | 87 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 1.6 | 33.3% | 8.4% | 24.9% | 1.9% | 3.86 | 2.39 | — |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 38 | 178 | 50 | 13 | 9 | 0% | 0.9 | 26.7% | 7.5% | 19.3% | 4.9% | 7.17 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 38 | 178 | 50 | 13 | 9 | 0% | 0.9 | 28.1% | 7.3% | 20.8% | 5.1% | 7.17 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 57 | 243 | 65 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.0% | 8.7% | 16.3% | 2.0% | 4.42 | 3.20 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 57 | 243 | 65 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.7% | 8.2% | 18.5% | 2.5% | 4.42 | 3.24 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 2 | 55 | 244 | 86 | 28 | 6 | 4% | 1.1 | 33.6% | 11.8% | 21.8% | 3.1% | 5.37 | 3.45 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 2 | 55 | 244 | 86 | 28 | 6 | 4% | 1.1 | 35.2% | 11.5% | 23.8% | 2.5% | 5.37 | 2.92 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 52 | 1 | 50 | 199 | 55 | 12 | 4 | 2% | 1.0 | 27.3% | 5.5% | 21.9% | 2.3% | 2.50 | 2.73 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 52 | 1 | 50 | 199 | 55 | 12 | 4 | 2% | 1.0 | 27.6% | 6.0% | 21.6% | 2.0% | 2.50 | 2.66 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 50 | 0 | 47 | 192 | 60 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 31.2% | 7.3% | 24.0% | 1.6% | 2.49 | 2.28 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 50 | 0 | 47 | 192 | 60 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 31.2% | 7.3% | 24.0% | 1.6% | 2.49 | 2.27 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 37 | 0 | 36 | 145 | 46 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.7% | 6.2% | 25.5% | 0.0% | 3.00 | 1.21 | +1.4 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | MIL | 16 | 0 | 17 | 71 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 32.2% | 6.6% | 25.6% | 1.9% | 2.42 | 2.29 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | MIL | 16 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 32.2% | 6.6% | 25.6% | 1.9% | 2.40 | 2.27 | +0.5 |
| 2026 TOT | 32 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 53 | 216 | 69 | 14 | 1 | — | — | 31.9% | 6.3% | 25.5% | 0.6% | 2.81 | 1.55 | +1.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 32 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 53 | 223 | 69 | 14 | 1 | — | — | 30.9% | 6.1% | 24.7% | 0.6% | 2.81 | 1.61 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | MIL | 46 | 0 | 48 | 205 | 64 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 31.4% | 7.0% | 24.3% | 2.2% | 2.89 | 2.95 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | MIL | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 57 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.5% | 7.5% | 22.9% | 2.5% | 3.11 | 3.26 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | MIL | 38 | 0 | 40 | 167 | 49 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.5% | 8.1% | 21.4% | 2.9% | 3.40 | 3.59 | +0.4 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | MIL | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 61 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.4% | 7.0% | 24.3% | 2.2% | 2.87 | 2.93 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | MIL | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 51 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.5% | 7.5% | 22.9% | 2.5% | 3.08 | 3.23 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | MIL | 32 | 0 | 34 | 144 | 42 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.5% | 8.1% | 21.4% | 2.8% | 3.37 | 3.56 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 363 | 2 | 370 | 1557 | 465 | 112 | 34 | 1% | 1.0 | 29.9% | 7.2% | 22.7% | 2.2% | 3.52 | 2.68 | +11.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 197 | 1 | 200 | 843 | 252 | 61 | 18 | 1% | 1.0 | 29.9% | 7.2% | 22.7% | 2.2% | 3.52 | 2.68 | +6.4 | ||
| Career | — | 353 | 3 | 402 | 1703 | 477 | 139 | 47 | 1% | 1.1 | 28.0% | 8.1% | 19.9% | 2.8% | 4.05 | 3.28 | +10.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 176 | 1 | 200 | 847 | 238 | 69 | 23 | 1% | 1.1 | 28.0% | 8.1% | 19.9% | 2.8% | 4.05 | 3.28 | +5.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Trevor Megill (OGILVIE) | — | — | 2.99 | 32.5% | 6.8% | 2.5% | — | 3.25 | 30.5% | 23.0% | 132 | +0.26 | — | — | — |
| Mark Lowe R 2026 · 2.37 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.37 | 28.4% | 5.1% | 1.9% | .302 | 5.17 | 19.2% | 9.9% | 98 | +2.80 | 2.37 | 153 | 64 |
| Josh Lueke R 2024 · 2.50 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.50 | 30.0% | 4.1% | 2.6% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 107 | 62 |
| C.C. Lee R 2025 · 3.00 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.00 | 34.7% | 9.1% | 3.0% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 121 | 60 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 3.13 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.13 | 29.9% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .235 | 4.87 | 20.2% | 8.1% | 85 | +1.74 | 2.00 | 320 | 60 |
| John Axford R 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.10 | 24.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .333 | 3.98 | 21.5% | 11.1% | 141 | +0.88 | 3.10 | 197 | 60 |
| Oliver Drake R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 33.5% | 8.1% | 3.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 317 | 59 |
| Pedro Strop R 2026 · 3.03 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.03 | 26.0% | 10.0% | 1.6% | .263 | 3.35 | 25.3% | 16.4% | 101 | +0.32 | 2.48 | 277 | 59 |
| Blake Parker R 2026 · 2.61 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.61 | 33.9% | 6.3% | 2.9% | .228 | 4.31 | 26.6% | 18.8% | 144 | +1.70 | 2.61 | 339 | 59 |
| Ryan Madson R 2028 · 2.97 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.97 | 23.4% | 5.2% | 2.2% | .244 | 2.98 | 23.9% | 18.7% | 176 | +0.01 | 1.42 | 240 | 58 |
| Fernando Cruz R 2026 · 2.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.77 | 27.4% | 10.0% | 1.3% | .254 | 2.78 | 36.3% | 25.3% | 181 | +0.01 | 2.52 | 356 | 57 |
| Seunghwan Oh R 2028 · 1.81 FIP | 34 | SU | 1.81 | 32.9% | 4.8% | 1.6% | .263 | 3.42 | 24.1% | 19.6% | 146 | +1.61 | 1.81 | 226 | 57 |
| Blake Wood R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.52 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 210 | 57 |
| Michael Tonkin R 2026 · 2.33 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.33 | 32.1% | 7.9% | 1.7% | .321 | 3.74 | 23.5% | 16.0% | 211 | +1.41 | 2.33 | 480 | 57 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2029 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 56 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 56 |
| Jake Petricka R 2025 · 3.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.04 | 23.4% | 7.7% | 1.7% | .323 | 4.25 | 18.8% | 10.8% | 60 | +1.21 | 3.04 | 252 | 56 |
| Adam Ottavino R 2026 · 1.99 FIP | 32 | SU | 1.99 | 36.2% | 10.0% | 1.2% | .224 | 3.22 | 28.6% | 16.3% | 147 | +1.23 | 1.99 | 488 | 55 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 2.56 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.56 | 24.3% | 4.2% | 1.8% | .295 | 3.29 | 26.1% | 18.9% | 107 | +0.73 | 2.56 | 268 | 55 |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.60 | 27.7% | 9.0% | 3.1% | .298 | 3.52 | 27.3% | 20.0% | 58 | -0.08 | 3.52 | 316 | 54 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 2.94 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.94 | 27.3% | 9.1% | 1.8% | .324 | 3.29 | 23.4% | 17.1% | 134 | +0.35 | 2.27 | 426 | 54 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 46 | 31.1% | 7.3% | 0.98 | 3.12 |
| Ken Giles ('19) | 5 | 60 | 32.6% | 7.6% | 0.75 | 2.89 |
| Evan Phillips ('24) | 4 | 52 | 29.5% | 7.8% | 0.70 | 2.78 |
| Sean Doolittle ('21) | 5 | 49 | 28.7% | 6.2% | 1.18 | 3.31 |
| Diego Castillo ('22) | 5 | 52 | 28.1% | 8.9% | 1.07 | 3.12 |
| Giovanny Gallegos ('24) | 6 | 52 | 29.4% | 6.6% | 1.19 | 3.46 |
| Keone Kela ('19) | 5 | 43 | 30.1% | 9.4% | 0.92 | 3.23 |