Trevor Megill
P
Milwaukee Brewers
+0.8
WAR
Age 32
RHP
6'8" / 253 lbs
MLB
Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027
peak 0.7 · 2026
ERA3.15
FIP3.32
xFIP4.41
SIERA3.59
K%28.5%
BB%7.8%
K-BB%20.8%
IP35
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2026
K†7070
FB Velo
p9099.2
Whiff%
p8931.4%
K%
p9031.3%
xwOBA vs
p820.281
CU (41%)
FB-3.2 (59%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | AZL Padres | 7 | 0 | 11 | 50 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 21.8% | 7.5% | 2.8% | 3.97 | 3.75 | +0.2 |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ | Lake Elsinore Storm | 5 | 0 | 9 | 41 | 9 | 5 | 0 | — | — | — | 6.00 | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 25 | 0 | 38 | 150 | 42 | 8 | 5 | 21.9% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 3.35 | 4.80 | +0.1 |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 39 | 0 | 61 | 261 | 87 | 22 | 5 | 28.4% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 3.86 | 3.31 | +1.1 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 40 | 0 | 38 | 178 | 50 | 13 | 9 | 26.7% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 7.17 | 4.53 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 49 | 0 | 57 | 243 | 65 | 20 | 6 | 25.0% | 8.7% | 1.9% | 4.42 | 3.13 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 49 | 2 | 55 | 244 | 86 | 28 | 6 | 33.6% | 11.8% | 2.8% | 5.37 | 3.27 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 52 | 1 | 50 | 199 | 55 | 12 | 4 | 27.3% | 5.5% | 1.9% | 2.50 | 2.52 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 50 | 0 | 47 | 192 | 60 | 14 | 3 | 31.2% | 7.3% | 1.5% | 2.49 | 2.18 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 7 | 0 | 6 | 32 | 7 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 12.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | MIL | 29 | — | 29 | 124 | 39 | 10 | 3 | 31.7% | 7.8% | 2.4% | 3.05 | 3.13 | +0.6 |
| 2026 Total | 32 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 35 | 156 | 46 | 14 | 3 | 29.7% | 8.7% | 1.9% | 4.57 | 2.60 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | MIL | 34 | — | 34 | 143 | 42 | 12 | 3 | 29.7% | 8.3% | 2.4% | 3.26 | 3.34 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | MIL | 32 | — | 32 | 136 | 39 | 12 | 3 | 29.0% | 8.5% | 2.5% | 3.39 | 3.48 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | MIL | 30 | — | 30 | 128 | 36 | 11 | 3 | 28.2% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 3.53 | 3.63 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 36 | MLB | MIL | 28 | — | 28 | 119 | 33 | 11 | 3 | 27.5% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 3.69 | 3.79 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 323 | 3 | 372 | 1590 | 438 | 134 | 43 | 27.6% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 4.28 | 3.31 | +8.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 174 | 2 | 200 | 855 | 235 | 72 | 23 | 27.6% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 4.28 | 3.31 | +4.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Trevor Megill (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.13 | 31.7% | 7.8% | 2.4% | — | 3.48 | 29.0% | 20.4% | 96 | +0.35 | — | — | — |
| John Axford R 2026 · 3.28 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.28 | 24.8% | 11.2% | 1.6% | .333 | 3.94 | 21.5% | 11.1% | 141 | +0.66 | 3.28 | 197 | 68 |
| Pedro Strop R 2026 · 3.02 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.02 | 26.0% | 10.0% | 1.5% | .263 | 3.46 | 25.3% | 16.4% | 101 | +0.44 | 2.58 | 277 | 64 |
| Juan Nicasio R 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.14 | 20.7% | 7.4% | 1.6% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.46 | 338 | 64 |
| Jake Petricka R 2025 · 3.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.04 | 23.4% | 7.7% | 1.7% | .323 | 4.02 | 18.8% | 10.8% | 60 | +0.98 | 3.04 | 252 | 64 |
| Blake Wood R 2025 · 3.35 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.35 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.91 | 210 | 62 |
| Ryan Madson R 2028 · 2.94 FIP | 34 | SW | 2.94 | 23.4% | 5.2% | 2.1% | .244 | 2.97 | 23.9% | 18.7% | 176 | +0.03 | 1.43 | 240 | 61 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 61 |
| Fernando Cruz R 2026 · 2.94 FIP | 32 | SW | 2.94 | 27.4% | 10.0% | 1.6% | .254 | 2.70 | 36.3% | 25.3% | 181 | -0.24 | 2.44 | 316 | 61 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2029 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 61 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.42 | 29.9% | 10.0% | 2.9% | .235 | 4.92 | 20.2% | 8.1% | 85 | +1.50 | 2.00 | 320 | 61 |
| Mark Lowe R 2026 · 2.30 FIP | 32 | SW | 2.30 | 28.4% | 5.1% | 1.7% | .302 | 5.15 | 19.2% | 9.9% | 98 | +2.85 | 2.30 | 153 | 60 |
| Chad Gaudin R 2027 · 2.66 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.66 | 22.8% | 6.8% | 1.1% | .325 | 3.16 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 58 | +0.50 | 2.02 | 102 | 60 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.88 | 22.3% | 9.2% | 2.7% | .247 | 3.28 | 23.0% | 13.8% | 141 | -0.60 | 2.80 | 284 | 60 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.65 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .256 | 4.36 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 16 | +0.71 | 3.65 | 137 | 60 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.99 | 24.5% | 7.4% | 3.7% | .291 | 5.41 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 36 | +1.42 | 2.93 | 176 | 59 |
| Josh Fields R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.46 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 2.5% | .224 | 7.56 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 25 | +4.10 | 1.85 | 238 | 59 |
| Charlie Morton R 2026 · 3.04 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.04 | 26.8% | 11.3% | 1.4% | .326 | 2.91 | 28.8% | 20.7% | 508 | -0.13 | 2.52 | 1,534 | 58 |
| Chris Martin R 2026 · 2.97 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.97 | 20.9% | 1.7% | 2.6% | .311 | 2.86 | 25.7% | 23.1% | 117 | -0.11 | 1.72 | 402 | 58 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 58 |
| Mark Serrano R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.63 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 2.9% | .240 | 5.25 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.62 | 3.10 | 120 | 58 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Arb-2
MLB Debut 2021
Service 4.012 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2027
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-2 | $5M | +0.7 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2027 | Arb-3 | $5M | +0.6 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $5M | $5M | +$0.0M | ||