Ian Seymour

P Tampa Bay Rays

Age 28 LHP 6'0" / 215 lbs MLB peak 0.5 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	27	27	145	2.35	2.70	28.1%	7.1%	—	K 23.3% · BB 7.2% · FIP 3.21
2025	26	MIX2 levels	35	20	143	3.02	2.91	28.1%	6.4%	4.4	K 25.7% · BB 6.0% · FIP 2.87
2026	27	MLBTB	47	16	133	4.21	3.89	28.7%	5.8%	1.0
2027PROJ	28	MLBTB	17	17	101	3.88	4.00	25.9%	5.7%	1.7
2028PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBTB	14	14	81	4.05	4.16	25.3%	5.9%	1.2
2029PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBTB	11	11	68	4.24	4.37	24.6%	6.2%	0.8

Last 3 seasons WAR 5.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%85

xwOBA vs72

FB Velo10

Form4.21 ERA (proj 3.88) · K 28.6% (proj 25.9%) · BB 3.8% (proj 5.7%) ▲ last 60d · 26 IP through Oct 27

CompsVidal Nuño (age 28) · Ben Shields (age 25) · Zach Logue (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8795vR 103

ERA3.88

FIP4.00

K%25.9%

BB%5.7%

K-BB%20.2%

Proj IP101

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 101 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5050

CMD6060

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.4

Whiff%

p7629.4%

p8528.7%

xwOBA vs

p720.291

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	13	55	214	87	19	4	93%	4.0	32.3%	11.4%	21.0%	2.8%	1.95	3.35	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	13	55	214	87	19	4	93%	4.0	40.7%	8.9%	31.8%	1.9%	1.95	1.93	—
2022	23	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	5	5	17	81	23	12	2	100%	3.3	23.0%	16.3%	6.7%	3.1%	8.10	4.90	—
2022	23	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	5	5	17	81	23	12	2	100%	3.3	28.4%	14.8%	13.6%	2.5%	8.10	4.06	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	13	13	42	155	46	16	2	100%	3.2	21.1%	7.7%	13.5%	1.6%	1.50	3.15	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	13	13	42	155	46	16	2	100%	3.2	29.7%	10.3%	19.4%	1.3%	1.50	2.67	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	145	576	162	41	11	100%	5.4	23.3%	7.2%	16.2%	2.1%	2.35	3.21	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	145	576	162	41	11	100%	5.4	23.3%	7.2%	16.2%	2.1%	2.35	3.21	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	145	576	162	41	11	100%	5.4	28.1%	7.1%	21.0%	1.9%	2.35	2.70	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	20	143	598	168	38	15	57%	4.1	25.7%	6.0%	19.6%	2.1%	3.02	2.87	+4.5
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	20	143	598	168	38	15	57%	4.1	25.7%	6.0%	19.6%	2.1%	3.02	2.87	+4.5
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	20	143	598	168	38	15	57%	4.1	28.1%	6.4%	21.7%	2.5%	3.02	2.91	+4.4
2026	27	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	47	16	133	551	158	32	25	34%	2.8	28.7%	5.8%	22.9%	4.7%	4.21	3.98	+0.9
2026	27	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	47	16	133	551	158	32	25	34%	2.8	28.7%	5.8%	22.9%	4.7%	4.21	3.98	+0.9
2026	27	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	47	16	133	551	158	32	25	34%	2.8	28.7%	5.8%	22.9%	4.5%	4.21	3.89	+1.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			66	21	190	793	222	50	30	32%	2.9	28.0%	6.3%	21.7%	3.8%	4.03	3.61	+2.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	TB	17	17	101	426	110	24	15	100%	5.9	25.9%	5.7%	20.2%	3.6%	3.88	4.00	+1.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	TB	14	14	85	358	91	21	14	100%	6.1	25.3%	5.9%	19.4%	3.8%	4.05	4.16	+1.2
2029	30	MLB MLE	TB	12	12	72	303	75	19	12	100%	6.0	24.6%	6.2%	18.4%	4.0%	4.24	4.37	+0.9
2028	29	MLB CTX	TB	14	14	81	342	87	20	13	100%	5.8	25.3%	5.9%	19.4%	3.8%	4.05	4.16	+1.2
2029	30	MLB CTX	TB	11	11	68	287	71	18	11	100%	6.2	24.6%	6.2%	18.4%	4.0%	4.24	4.37	+0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		91	46	339	1422	379	88	54	51%	3.7	26.7%	6.2%	20.5%	3.8%	4.08	3.73	+6.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		54	27	200	840	224	52	32	50%	3.7	26.7%	6.2%	20.5%	3.8%	4.08	3.73	+4.0
Career	—	MLE		141	94	535	2175	566	159	62	67%	3.8	26.0%	7.3%	18.7%	2.8%	3.06	3.38	+6.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	35	200	813	212	59	23	67%	3.8	26.0%	7.3%	18.7%	2.8%	3.06	3.38	+3.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAADurham Bulls · 86 IPFIP 2.89 → 2.85 (−0.04)K% 29.2% → 25.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.21%	—	×0.860	25.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.62%	—	×0.900	5.06%
HR / BF /BF	2.81%	÷1.380	×1.100	2.24%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 176).

Result: FIP 2.89 → 2.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 91 IPFIP 2.13 → 2.83 (+0.69)K% 28.3% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.29%	—	×0.810	22.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.29%	—	×1.100	6.91%
HR / BF /BF	1.14%	÷0.958	×1.200	1.43%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 2.13 → 2.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAADurham Bulls · 54 IPFIP 3.51 → 3.80 (+0.29)K% 27.9% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.88%	—	×0.860	23.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.41%	—	×0.900	7.57%
HR / BF /BF	3.10%	÷1.061	×1.100	3.21%

Result: FIP 3.51 → 3.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ACharleston RiverDogs · 22 IPFIP 2.22 → 3.15 (+0.92)K% 28.6% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.57%	—	×0.740	21.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.49%	—	×1.180	7.66%
HR / BF /BF	1.30%	÷1.075	×1.300	1.57%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 115).

Result: FIP 2.22 → 3.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 9 IPFIP 4.34 → 5.41 (+1.07)K% 26.5% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.47%	—	×0.770	20.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.71%	—	×1.150	16.91%
HR / BF /BF	2.94%	÷1.066	×1.250	3.45%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 113).

Result: FIP 4.34 → 5.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Rays · 7 IPFIP 1.59 → 3.11 (+1.51)K% 39.3% → 26.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.29%	—	×0.680	26.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×1.250	17.86%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.911	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 1.59 → 3.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 17 IPFIP 3.93 → 4.90 (+0.96)K% 28.4% → 23.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.40%	—	×0.810	23.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.81%	—	×1.100	16.30%
HR / BF /BF	2.47%	÷0.970	×1.200	3.05%

Result: FIP 3.93 → 4.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ACharleston RiverDogs · 35 IPFIP 1.85 → 3.35 (+1.50)K% 43.7% → 32.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	43.70%	—	×0.740	32.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.63%	—	×1.180	11.36%
HR / BF /BF	2.22%	÷1.026	×1.300	2.82%

Result: FIP 1.85 → 3.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ian Seymour (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.00	25.9%	5.7%	3.6%	—	4.26	25.0%	19.0%	157	+0.26	—	—	—
Vidal Nuño L 2015 · 4.10 FIP	28	SW	4.10	20.0%	4.8%	3.8%	.289	4.25	20.8%	16.1%	173	+0.15	4.00	606	72
Ben Shields L 2024 · 3.23 FIP	25	SP-	3.23	25.3%	8.2%	2.2%	.273	3.02	23.5%	13.3%	43	-0.21	3.02	147	65
Zach Logue L 2024 · 3.67 FIP	28	SP-	3.67	19.7%	6.4%	2.6%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	700	60
Andy Otero L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	29	SP-	3.89	24.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.298	4.36	14.5%	5.6%	68	+0.47	2.86	200	60
Chris O'Grady L 2017 · 4.33 FIP	27	SP-	4.33	21.4%	9.0%	3.5%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	232	57
Manny Parra L 2010 · 4.19 FIP	27	SW	4.19	23.0%	10.7%	3.1%	.331	3.16	25.6%	15.3%	105	-1.03	2.43	710	56
T.J. Sikkema L 2024 · 3.57 FIP	26	SP-	3.57	18.5%	6.0%	2.3%	.282	4.10	16.1%	7.2%	87	+0.53	3.57	300	55
Dylan Dodd L 2024 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	17.5%	6.0%	4.2%	.338	3.97	26.5%	21.7%	123	-0.74	3.31	475	55
Bruce Zimmermann L 2023 · 3.09 FIP	28	SP-	3.09	21.3%	6.9%	1.7%	.367	4.06	18.6%	13.0%	293	+0.97	2.91	934	55
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	54
Brent Suter L 2018 · 4.15 FIP	28	SP	4.15	19.8%	4.0%	4.0%	.275	3.15	24.1%	18.9%	123	-1.00	2.15	954	54
John Lamb L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	28	SP	4.64	22.5%	7.2%	4.6%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	390	54
Chris Narveson L 2010 · 4.00 FIP	28	SP-	4.00	18.9%	7.7%	2.8%	.296	4.01	18.0%	8.8%	162	+0.01	4.00	625	53
Phil Pfeifer L 2019 · 3.61 FIP	27	SP-	3.61	21.9%	8.5%	2.4%	.298	5.65	19.5%	4.7%	35	+2.04	3.61	307	53
Eric Surkamp L 2015 · 4.00 FIP	28	SP-	4.00	18.2%	6.7%	2.9%	.308	5.09	16.4%	7.1%	68	+1.09	4.00	233	53
Hogan Harris L 2024 · 4.46 FIP	27	SP-	4.46	20.3%	11.8%	2.9%	.312	3.42	26.7%	15.1%	150	-1.04	3.09	501	51
Dillon Peters L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	28	SP	4.86	22.8%	8.7%	4.7%	.286	4.87	15.8%	5.5%	39	+0.01	2.56	598	51
Steven Matz L 2019 · 4.21 FIP	28	SP	4.21	22.1%	6.5%	3.9%	.292	4.03	23.9%	17.6%	244	-0.18	3.19	1,226	50
Joey Lucchesi L 2021 · 3.18 FIP	28	SP-	3.18	26.1%	7.0%	2.5%	.297	4.64	16.4%	6.5%	243	+1.46	3.12	817	49
Jason Wheeler L 2017 · 4.40 FIP	26	SP-	4.40	16.1%	5.8%	3.5%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	401	49

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	89	26.5%	6.3%	1.46	4.04
Mark Huismann ('83-'91, 1 WAR*)	1.5	74	23.8%*	6.5%*	1.30*	4.49*
Luis DeLeon ('81-'89, 4 WAR*)	1.7	67	25.0%*	5.7%*	1.69*	3.69*
Enrique Romo ('77-'82, 6 WAR*)	3.0	100	26.0%*	8.2%*	1.33*	3.81*
Matt Andriese ('24)	2.6	74	21.8%	6.7%	1.36	4.65
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Tyler Lyons ('20)	1.4	57	24.3%	7.6%	1.27	4.30