Ian Seymour
P
Tampa Bay Rays
Age 27
LHP
6'0" / 215 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 1.7 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION65 act + 108 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7685vR 94
ERA3.37
FIP3.34
K%26.3%
BB%6.9%
K-BB%19.4%
ROS IP108
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 173 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1191.7
Whiff%
p7629.4%
K%
p8027.8%
xwOBA vs
p720.291
SL+1.0 (28%)
CH+0.8 (31%)
SI (14%)
CU (1%)
CT-1.4 (1%)
FB-1.4 (38%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 14 | 13 | 55 | 214 | 87 | 19 | 4 | 93% | 4.0 | 32.3% | 11.4% | 21.0% | 2.7% | 1.95 | 3.32 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 14 | 13 | 55 | 214 | 87 | 19 | 4 | 93% | 4.0 | 40.7% | 8.9% | 31.8% | 1.9% | 1.95 | 1.93 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 5 | 5 | 17 | 81 | 23 | 12 | 2 | 100% | 3.3 | 23.0% | 16.3% | 6.7% | 3.2% | 8.10 | 4.95 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 5 | 5 | 17 | 81 | 23 | 12 | 2 | 100% | 3.3 | 28.4% | 14.8% | 13.6% | 2.5% | 8.10 | 4.06 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 13 | 13 | 42 | 155 | 46 | 16 | 2 | 100% | 3.2 | 21.1% | 7.7% | 13.5% | 1.5% | 1.50 | 3.09 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 13 | 13 | 42 | 155 | 46 | 16 | 2 | 100% | 3.2 | 29.7% | 10.3% | 19.4% | 1.3% | 1.50 | 2.67 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 145 | 576 | 162 | 41 | 11 | 100% | 5.4 | 23.5% | 7.7% | 15.9% | 2.1% | 2.35 | 3.24 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 145 | 576 | 162 | 41 | 11 | 100% | 5.4 | 28.1% | 7.1% | 21.0% | 1.9% | 2.35 | 2.70 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 20 | 143 | 598 | 168 | 38 | 15 | 57% | 4.1 | 26.0% | 6.5% | 19.5% | 1.9% | 3.02 | 2.79 | +4.4 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 20 | 143 | 598 | 168 | 38 | 15 | 57% | 4.1 | 28.1% | 6.4% | 21.7% | 2.5% | 3.02 | 2.91 | +4.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 33 | 6 | 65 | 270 | 75 | 20 | 10 | 18% | 2.0 | 27.8% | 7.4% | 20.4% | 3.7% | 4.59 | 3.73 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | TB | 103 | 0 | 108 | 457 | 120 | 31 | 13 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.3% | 6.9% | 19.4% | 2.9% | 3.37 | 3.34 | +2.6 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | TB | 103 | 0 | 108 | 456 | 120 | 31 | 13 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.3% | 6.9% | 19.4% | 2.8% | 3.32 | 3.29 | +2.7 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | TB | — | — | 173 | 727 | 195 | 51 | 23 | — | — | 26.8% | 7.1% | 19.8% | 3.2% | 3.83 | 3.48 | +3.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | TB | — | — | 173 | 730 | 195 | 51 | 23 | — | — | 26.7% | 7.0% | 19.7% | 3.1% | 3.80 | 3.45 | +3.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TB | 28 | 28 | 173 | 730 | 189 | 51 | 22 | 100% | 6.2 | 25.8% | 7.0% | 18.8% | 3.0% | 3.81 | 3.83 | +3.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | TB | 27 | 27 | 165 | 698 | 176 | 51 | 22 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.2% | 7.2% | 18.0% | 3.1% | 3.92 | 3.99 | +2.7 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | TB | 25 | 25 | 155 | 656 | 161 | 50 | 22 | 100% | 6.2 | 24.5% | 7.5% | 17.0% | 3.3% | 4.09 | 4.20 | +2.2 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TB | 26 | 26 | 164 | 692 | 179 | 49 | 20 | 100% | 6.3 | 25.8% | 7.0% | 18.8% | 2.9% | 3.76 | 3.78 | +3.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | TB | 25 | 25 | 157 | 663 | 167 | 48 | 20 | 100% | 6.3 | 25.2% | 7.2% | 18.0% | 3.1% | 3.87 | 3.94 | +2.7 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | TB | 24 | 24 | 148 | 625 | 153 | 47 | 20 | 100% | 6.2 | 24.5% | 7.5% | 17.0% | 3.2% | 4.04 | 4.15 | +2.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 231 | 86 | 699 | 2949 | 758 | 213 | 88 | 37% | 3.0 | 25.7% | 7.2% | 18.5% | 3.0% | 3.84 | 3.49 | +15.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 66 | 25 | 200 | 844 | 217 | 61 | 25 | 37% | 3.0 | 25.7% | 7.2% | 18.5% | 3.0% | 3.84 | 3.49 | +4.5 | ||
| Career | — | 127 | 84 | 467 | 1894 | 487 | 153 | 44 | 66% | 3.7 | 25.7% | 8.1% | 17.6% | 2.3% | 2.95 | 3.23 | +11.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 36 | 200 | 811 | 208 | 65 | 19 | 66% | 3.7 | 25.7% | 8.1% | 17.6% | 2.3% | 2.95 | 3.23 | +5.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ian Seymour (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.59 | 24.3% | 6.5% | 2.4% | — | 4.00 | 25.2% | 17.9% | 494 | +0.41 | — | — | — |
| Andy Otero L 2028 · 4.08 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.08 | 24.7% | 6.2% | 4.2% | .298 | 4.38 | 14.5% | 5.6% | 68 | +0.30 | 2.85 | 200 | 72 |
| Manny Banuelos L 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.46 | 23.8% | 8.9% | 2.2% | .338 | 5.84 | 18.7% | 5.9% | 51 | +2.38 | 2.92 | 486 | 72 |
| Matt Tomshaw L 2026 · 2.95 FIP | 27 | SP- | 2.95 | 22.7% | 5.4% | 2.0% | .301 | 3.49 | 16.1% | 11.0% | 423 | +0.54 | 2.95 | 681 | 68 |
| Chris O'Grady L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.44 | 21.4% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 232 | 68 |
| Hector Hernandez L 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.57 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 121 | 65 |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.53 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 3.3% | .311 | 4.31 | 17.2% | 9.9% | 300 | -0.22 | 3.88 | 523 | 63 |
| Andrew Alvarez L 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.78 | 25.9% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 575 | 63 |
| Buddy Baumann L 2026 · 2.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 2.83 | 22.5% | 7.4% | 1.3% | .278 | 4.41 | 23.5% | 13.1% | 78 | +1.58 | 2.83 | 155 | 63 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.30 | 22.8% | 12.2% | 1.1% | .292 | 3.80 | 20.2% | 11.3% | 127 | +0.50 | 2.68 | 175 | 63 |
| Sammy Peralta L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.66 | 20.3% | 5.2% | 2.9% | .297 | 4.17 | 15.6% | 10.5% | 72 | +0.51 | 3.51 | 419 | 63 |
| Shane Drohan L 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.39 | 23.1% | 7.7% | 2.3% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.91 | 484 | 62 |
| Ryan Magdic L 2025 · 3.18 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.18 | 21.5% | 4.8% | 2.4% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 150 | 62 |
| Nico Tellache L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 16.3% | 7.3% | 2.3% | .373 | 4.65 | 13.4% | 4.8% | 78 | +0.76 | 3.89 | 160 | 61 |
| Eric Surkamp L 2027 · 4.29 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.29 | 18.2% | 6.7% | 3.4% | .308 | 5.15 | 16.4% | 7.1% | 68 | +0.86 | 4.29 | 182 | 61 |
| Brent Suter L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.79 | 19.7% | 5.7% | 3.0% | .318 | 3.79 | 22.2% | 18.6% | 151 | +0.00 | 2.23 | 915 | 61 |
| Travis Wood L 2027 · 3.16 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.16 | 28.2% | 8.1% | 2.6% | .293 | 5.17 | 16.4% | 6.7% | 155 | +2.01 | 3.16 | 256 | 61 |
| Brian Johnson L 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.52 | 20.0% | 8.8% | 3.6% | .300 | 4.82 | 17.1% | 7.0% | 116 | +0.30 | 3.38 | 506 | 60 |
| Vidal Nuño L 2027 · 4.07 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.07 | 20.0% | 4.8% | 3.7% | .289 | 4.33 | 20.8% | 16.1% | 173 | +0.26 | 4.07 | 424 | 60 |
| Michael Plassmeyer L 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.18 | 23.5% | 4.2% | 4.6% | .401 | 5.13 | 19.5% | 9.7% | 168 | +0.95 | 3.41 | 675 | 59 |
| Adam Laskey L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.39 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 310 | 58 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 167 | 25.0% | 7.1% | 1.15 | 3.85 |
| Cole Hamels ('19) AS×4 | 5 | 179 | 22.6% | 8.3% | 1.11 | 3.72 |
| Chris Archer ('22) | 6 | 164 | 26.9% | 8.3% | 1.21 | 4.10 |
| Luis Garcia ('23) | 3 | 113 | 25.5% | 7.7% | 1.19 | 3.63 |
| John Lackey ('17) | 3 | 192 | 21.2% | 6.7% | 1.25 | 3.49 |
| Jon Lester ('21) | 7 | 163 | 21.5% | 7.2% | 1.17 | 3.77 |
| Danny Salazar ('17) | 3 | 142 | 28.1% | 9.0% | 1.12 | 3.79 |