Ian Seymour — OGILVIE

Ian Seymour P Tampa Bay Rays

Age 27 LHP 6'0" / 215 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.7 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION122 act + 16 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7583vR 92

ERA3.16

FIP3.12

K%27.9%

BB%6.0%

K-BB%21.9%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 138 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$33M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5050

CMD6060

K†5565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.4

Whiff%

p7929.8%

p9029.5%

xwOBA vs

p740.289

SL+1.0 (26%)

CH+0.8 (29%)

SI (16%)

CT-1.4 (1%)

FB-1.4 (43%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.494 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.3M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.9	$14M	+$13M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.5	$10M	+$10M
2029	Arb-1	$1M	+1.0	$6M	+$6M
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$31M	+$29M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	13	55	214	87	19	4	93%	4.0	32.3%	11.4%	21.0%	2.8%	1.95	3.35	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	13	55	214	87	19	4	93%	4.0	40.7%	8.9%	31.8%	1.9%	1.95	1.93	—
2022	23	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	5	5	17	81	23	12	2	100%	3.3	23.0%	16.3%	6.7%	3.1%	8.10	4.90	—
2022	23	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	5	5	17	81	23	12	2	100%	3.3	28.4%	14.8%	13.6%	2.5%	8.10	4.06	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	13	13	42	155	46	16	2	100%	3.2	21.1%	7.7%	13.5%	1.6%	1.50	3.15	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	13	13	42	155	46	16	2	100%	3.2	21.1%	7.7%	13.5%	1.6%	1.50	3.15	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	13	13	42	155	46	16	2	100%	3.2	29.7%	10.3%	19.4%	1.3%	1.50	2.67	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	145	576	162	41	11	100%	5.4	23.0%	7.2%	15.8%	2.1%	2.35	3.23	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	145	576	162	41	11	100%	5.4	23.0%	7.2%	15.8%	2.1%	2.35	3.23	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	145	576	162	41	11	100%	5.4	28.1%	7.1%	21.0%	1.9%	2.35	2.70	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	20	143	598	168	38	15	57%	4.1	25.1%	6.0%	19.1%	2.1%	3.02	2.92	+3.5
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	20	143	598	168	38	15	57%	4.1	25.1%	6.0%	19.1%	2.1%	3.02	2.92	+3.5
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	20	143	598	168	38	15	57%	4.1	28.1%	6.4%	21.7%	2.5%	3.02	2.91	+3.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			63	19	179	751	214	48	28	30%	2.8	28.5%	6.4%	22.1%	3.7%	4.07	3.55	+2.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	44	14	122	509	150	30	23	32%	2.8	29.5%	5.9%	23.6%	4.6%	4.27	3.91	+0.9
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	44	14	122	509	150	30	23	32%	2.8	29.5%	5.9%	23.6%	4.6%	4.27	3.91	+0.9
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	MLB RAW	TB	44	14	122	509	150	30	23	32%	2.8	29.5%	5.9%	23.6%	4.5%	4.27	3.84	+1.0
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	TB	44	14	122	509	150	30	23	32%	2.8	29.5%	5.9%	23.6%	4.5%	4.27	3.84	+1.0
ROS	27	MLB MLE	TB	15	0	16	66	18	4	2	0%	1.0	27.9%	6.0%	21.9%	2.9%	3.16	3.12	+0.3
ROS	27	MLB CTX	TB	15	0	16	68	19	4	2	0%	1.1	27.9%	6.0%	21.9%	3.0%	3.21	3.17	+0.3
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	TB	—	—	138	575	168	34	25	—	—	29.3%	5.9%	23.4%	4.3%	4.14	3.82	+1.8
FULL	27	MLB A+C	TB	—	—	138	583	168	34	25	—	—	28.9%	5.8%	23.1%	4.3%	4.15	3.75	+1.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	TB	27	27	173	730	199	45	26	100%	6.4	27.2%	6.1%	21.1%	3.6%	3.93	3.95	+2.0
2028	29	MLB MLE	TB	26	26	165	698	186	44	26	100%	6.4	26.6%	6.4%	20.3%	3.8%	4.04	4.11	+1.5
2029	30	MLB MLE	TB	24	24	155	656	170	44	26	100%	6.5	25.9%	6.7%	19.3%	4.0%	4.20	4.31	+1.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	TB	26	26	164	692	188	43	26	100%	6.3	27.2%	6.1%	21.1%	3.7%	3.99	4.01	+1.9
2028	29	MLB CTX	TB	25	25	157	663	176	42	26	100%	6.3	26.6%	6.4%	20.3%	3.9%	4.10	4.17	+1.5
2029	30	MLB CTX	TB	23	23	148	625	162	42	26	100%	6.4	25.9%	6.7%	19.3%	4.1%	4.27	4.38	+1.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		152	93	664	2797	759	178	107	61%	4.4	27.1%	6.4%	20.8%	3.8%	4.08	3.72	+9.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		46	28	200	843	229	54	32	61%	4.4	27.1%	6.4%	20.8%	3.8%	4.08	3.72	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		138	92	525	2133	553	157	60	67%	3.8	25.9%	7.3%	18.6%	2.8%	3.05	3.38	+7.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	35	200	813	211	60	23	67%	3.8	25.9%	7.3%	18.6%	2.8%	3.05	3.38	+2.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ian Seymour (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.63	23.7%	6.1%	2.5%	—	4.12	26.6%	20.2%	494	+0.49	—	—	—
Andy Otero L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	29	SP-	3.89	24.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.298	4.36	14.5%	5.6%	68	+0.47	2.86	200	72
Manny Banuelos L 2018 · 3.48 FIP	27	SP-	3.48	23.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.338	5.89	18.7%	5.9%	51	+2.41	2.95	486	67
Matt Tomshaw L 2016 · 3.04 FIP	27	SP-	3.04	22.7%	5.4%	2.1%	.301	3.56	16.1%	11.0%	423	+0.52	3.04	681	67
Chris O'Grady L 2017 · 4.33 FIP	27	SP-	4.33	21.4%	9.0%	3.5%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	232	63
Brent Headrick L 2023 · 4.54 FIP	25	SW	4.54	22.6%	7.6%	4.3%	.299	2.87	28.1%	21.0%	138	-1.67	2.21	409	61
Cole Ragans L 2023 · 3.14 FIP	25	SP-	3.14	28.1%	10.6%	1.9%	.283	3.24	31.3%	22.0%	283	+0.10	2.48	623	60
Brent Suter L 2017 · 3.66 FIP	27	SP-	3.66	19.7%	5.7%	2.7%	.318	3.61	22.2%	18.6%	151	-0.05	2.15	949	59
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	58
Vidal Nuño L 2015 · 4.10 FIP	28	SW	4.10	20.0%	4.8%	3.8%	.289	4.25	20.8%	16.1%	173	+0.15	4.00	424	58
Cody Bradford L 2023 · 3.77 FIP	25	SP-	3.77	19.5%	4.9%	3.1%	.291	3.64	19.1%	14.4%	111	-0.13	3.37	456	58
Tyler Anderson L 2017 · 4.02 FIP	27	SP-	4.02	22.4%	7.3%	3.4%	.315	4.35	20.7%	12.2%	256	+0.33	3.10	1,288	57
Eric Surkamp L 2015 · 4.00 FIP	28	SP-	4.00	18.2%	6.7%	2.9%	.308	5.09	16.4%	7.1%	68	+1.09	4.00	182	57
Travis Wood L 2015 · 3.25 FIP	28	SW	3.25	28.2%	8.1%	2.7%	.293	5.07	16.4%	6.7%	155	+1.82	3.25	256	56
Buddy Baumann L 2015 · 2.92 FIP	27	SW	2.92	22.5%	7.4%	1.5%	.278	4.40	23.5%	13.1%	78	+1.48	2.92	155	56
Hector Hernandez L 2019 · 3.39 FIP	28	SW	3.39	20.2%	9.0%	1.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	121	56
Jake Kalish L 2018 · 2.99 FIP	27	SP-	2.99	19.5%	4.1%	1.9%	.334	5.99	18.3%	11.6%	215	+3.00	2.68	740	55
Matt Strahm L 2019 · 3.94 FIP	27	SW	3.94	24.2%	3.7%	4.4%	.301	3.58	24.1%	16.9%	65	-0.36	1.68	757	55
Brian Johnson L 2018 · 4.59 FIP	27	SW	4.59	20.0%	8.8%	3.8%	.300	4.73	17.1%	7.0%	116	+0.14	3.39	506	54
Robbie Erlin L 2018 · 3.22 FIP	27	SW	3.22	20.0%	2.7%	2.7%	.306	4.06	20.1%	14.9%	97	+0.84	3.22	520	54
Tyler Lyons L 2015 · 3.78 FIP	27	SP-	3.78	22.2%	4.4%	3.6%	.313	3.64	26.0%	18.5%	158	-0.14	2.65	376	54

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	167	25.9%	6.3%	1.33	3.95
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Luis Garcia ('23)	1.7	113	25.5%	7.7%	1.19	3.63
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Noah Syndergaard ('23)	4.7	134	23.8%	5.5%	0.95	3.70
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38