Ian Seymour
P
Tampa Bay Rays
+2.3
WAR
Age 27
LHP
6'0" / 215 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 2.2 · 2027
ERA3.63
FIP3.62
xFIP3.66
SIERA2.92
K%25.1%
BB%7.3%
K-BB%17.8%
IP132
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.2peak
2027
K†5555
FB Velo
p1091.5
Whiff%
p9032.7%
K%
p7927.5%
xwOBA vs
p180.350
SL+1.0 (23%)
CH+0.8 (32%)
SI (21%)
CT-1.4 (4%)
FB-1.4 (42%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 14 | 13 | 55 | 214 | 87 | 19 | 4 | 32.3% | 11.4% | 2.8% | 1.95 | 3.36 | +1.0 |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 5 | 5 | 17 | 81 | 23 | 12 | 2 | 23.0% | 16.3% | 3.1% | 8.10 | 4.90 | +0.0 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 13 | 13 | 42 | 155 | 46 | 16 | 2 | 21.1% | 7.7% | 1.6% | 1.50 | 3.14 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 27 | 27 | 145 | 576 | 162 | 41 | 11 | 23.5% | 7.7% | 2.1% | 2.35 | 3.24 | +3.4 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 35 | 20 | 143 | 598 | 168 | 38 | 15 | 26.0% | 6.5% | 2.1% | 3.02 | 2.90 | +3.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 7 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 9 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 10.57 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | TB | 23 | 23 | 124 | 523 | 121 | 38 | 13 | 23.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | 3.60 | 3.88 | +2.0 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | TB | — | — | 132 | 557 | 130 | 40 | 13 | 23.2% | 7.3% | 2.4% | 4.01 | 3.65 | +2.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TB | 24 | 24 | 132 | 556 | 130 | 41 | 14 | 23.3% | 7.3% | 2.5% | 3.68 | 3.81 | +2.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | TB | 23 | 23 | 129 | 543 | 124 | 40 | 14 | 22.8% | 7.4% | 2.6% | 3.83 | 3.92 | +2.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | TB | 23 | 23 | 125 | 527 | 117 | 40 | 14 | 22.2% | 7.5% | 2.7% | 3.95 | 4.02 | +1.8 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | TB | 22 | 22 | 120 | 508 | 110 | 39 | 14 | 21.6% | 7.6% | 2.7% | 4.06 | 4.13 | +1.6 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | TB | 21 | 21 | 116 | 488 | 102 | 38 | 14 | 20.9% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 4.17 | 4.25 | +1.4 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | TB | 20 | 20 | 110 | 466 | 94 | 37 | 14 | 20.3% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 4.38 | +1.2 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | TB | 19 | 19 | 105 | 442 | 87 | 36 | 13 | 19.6% | 8.2% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.52 | +0.9 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | TB | 18 | 18 | 99 | 417 | 79 | 35 | 13 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 3.1% | 4.57 | 4.67 | +0.7 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | TB | 17 | 17 | 92 | 390 | 70 | 34 | 13 | 18.1% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 4.73 | 4.83 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 37 | MLB | TB | 16 | 16 | 86 | 362 | 62 | 32 | 12 | 17.3% | 8.9% | 3.4% | 4.89 | 5.00 | +0.2 |
| 2037 | 38 | MLB | TB | 14 | 14 | 79 | 333 | 61 | 28 | 12 | 18.4% | 8.4% | 3.5% | 4.91 | 4.92 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 101 | 78 | 410 | 1658 | 421 | 135 | 36 | 25.4% | 8.1% | 2.2% | 2.83 | 3.17 | +9.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 38 | 200 | 809 | 205 | 66 | 18 | 25.4% | 8.1% | 2.2% | 2.83 | 3.17 | +4.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ian Seymour (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.88 | 23.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | — | 3.91 | 22.8% | 15.4% | 385 | +0.03 | — | — | — |
| Alex Wood L 2026 · 3.15 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.15 | 21.2% | 5.5% | 2.1% | .285 | 3.73 | 24.6% | 18.1% | 187 | +0.58 | 3.04 | 1,009 | 63 |
| Pete Hansen L 2024 · 3.75 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.75 | 17.1% | 7.0% | 2.2% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 378 | 63 |
| Vidal Nuño L 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.21 | 20.0% | 4.8% | 4.0% | .289 | 4.32 | 20.8% | 16.1% | 173 | +0.11 | 4.10 | 424 | 63 |
| Mat Batts L 2023 · 2.70 FIP | 24 | SP | 2.70 | 16.9% | 5.6% | 0.6% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 141 | 61 |
| Yohan Flande L 2028 · 4.79 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.79 | 12.9% | 5.5% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.27 | 15.1% | 8.4% | 172 | -1.52 | 3.17 | 335 | 61 |
| Jimmy Reed L 2023 · 3.66 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.66 | 12.9% | 4.3% | 2.0% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 137 | 61 |
| Adam Wilk L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.23 | 14.2% | 6.4% | 2.8% | .352 | 4.49 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 310 | +0.26 | 3.35 | 455 | 60 |
| David Hurlbut L 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.10 | 16.3% | 5.5% | 1.2% | .349 | 4.84 | 13.9% | 7.4% | 85 | +1.74 | 3.10 | 478 | 60 |
| Kelvin Marte L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.84 | 11.7% | 7.8% | 1.3% | .273 | 4.15 | 16.3% | 7.0% | 160 | +0.31 | 3.44 | 360 | 59 |
| Jo-Jo Reyes L 2029 · 3.51 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.51 | 14.9% | 6.4% | 1.6% | .326 | 3.34 | 16.3% | 10.7% | 90 | -0.17 | 3.02 | 240 | 59 |
| Darin Gorski L 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.96 | 15.2% | 11.4% | 3.1% | .323 | 4.49 | 15.0% | 5.2% | 69 | -0.47 | 4.49 | 206 | 59 |
| Brad Mills L 2029 · 4.66 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.66 | 14.5% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .294 | 6.15 | 14.4% | 2.6% | 44 | +1.49 | 4.66 | 182 | 58 |
| John Michael Bertrand L 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.35 | 13.4% | 10.2% | 2.0% | .280 | 5.94 | 10.8% | -2.1% | 12 | +1.59 | 3.72 | 408 | 57 |
| Mike Belfiore L 2025 · 4.61 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.61 | 12.0% | 9.2% | 2.5% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.61 | 135 | 57 |
| Scott Diamond L 2028 · 3.78 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.78 | 12.6% | 4.3% | 2.2% | .330 | 3.45 | 12.7% | 7.9% | 166 | -0.33 | 3.45 | 316 | 57 |
| Tyler Lyons L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.80 | 22.2% | 4.4% | 3.7% | .313 | 3.58 | 26.0% | 18.5% | 158 | -0.22 | 2.65 | 376 | 57 |
| Anthony Vasquez L 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.17 | 11.8% | 9.3% | 1.6% | .278 | 4.19 | 14.3% | 7.3% | 423 | +0.02 | 4.01 | 642 | 57 |
| Jeffry Antigua L 2024 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.58 | 11.4% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.58 | 133 | 57 |
| Jeff Locke L 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.64 | 17.5% | 7.6% | 1.9% | .306 | 4.65 | 13.7% | 6.5% | 159 | +1.01 | 3.64 | 328 | 56 |
| Matt Crouse L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.63 | 12.0% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 342 | 56 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 0.494 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2031
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +2.1 | $17M | +$16M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +2.2 | $18M | +$17M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +2.0 | $17M | +$16M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $6M | +1.8 | $16M | +$10M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $9M | +1.6 | $14M | +$5M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $12M | +1.4 | $13M | +$0.9M |
| Totals | $29M | $95M | +$66M | ||