Griffin Jax
P
Tampa Bay Rays
Age 31
RHP
6'2" / 195 lbs
MLB
Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027
peak 1.3 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION70 act + 47 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110101vR 92
ERA3.55
FIP3.31
K%28.5%
BB%7.1%
K-BB%21.4%
ROS IP47
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 117 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p7496.2
Whiff%
p8731.1%
K%
p6424.7%
xwOBA vs
p160.352
SI (20%)
CT (5%)
CU (9%)
SL (26%)
CH-1.6 (22%)
FB-3.3 (38%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | Elizabethton Twins | 4 | 0 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0% | 2.2 | 20.0% | 2.5% | 17.5% | 5.0% | 4.15 | 4.47 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | Elizabethton Twins | 4 | 0 | 9 | 40 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0% | 2.2 | 20.0% | 2.5% | 17.5% | 5.0% | 4.15 | 4.60 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 5 | 31 | 125 | 20 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 6.2 | 9.2% | 7.9% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.61 | 4.03 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 5 | 31 | 125 | 20 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 6.2 | 16.0% | 5.6% | 10.4% | 1.6% | 2.61 | 3.33 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Fort Myers Miracle | 15 | 14 | 88 | 369 | 66 | 15 | 3 | 93% | 5.8 | 13.8% | 4.7% | 9.1% | 0.9% | 3.70 | 3.03 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Fort Myers Miracle | 15 | 14 | 88 | 369 | 66 | 15 | 3 | 93% | 5.8 | 17.9% | 4.1% | 13.8% | 0.8% | 3.70 | 2.55 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 127 | 521 | 94 | 27 | 7 | 100% | 5.5 | 14.7% | 5.7% | 9.1% | 1.6% | 2.90 | 3.46 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 127 | 521 | 94 | 27 | 7 | 100% | 5.5 | 18.0% | 5.2% | 12.9% | 1.3% | 2.90 | 2.97 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 22 | 123 | 530 | 101 | 44 | 25 | 85% | 4.7 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 4.6% | 5.50 | 5.17 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 22 | 123 | 530 | 101 | 44 | 25 | 85% | 4.7 | 19.1% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 4.7% | 5.50 | 5.18 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 66 | 0 | 74 | 297 | 80 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.9% | 5.9% | 21.0% | 2.4% | 3.27 | 2.88 | +1.7 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 66 | 0 | 74 | 297 | 80 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.9% | 6.1% | 20.9% | 2.4% | 3.27 | 2.90 | +1.7 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 71 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 68 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 0.9 | 24.8% | 6.6% | 18.2% | 1.8% | 3.86 | 2.83 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 71 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 68 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 0.9 | 24.8% | 6.6% | 18.2% | 1.8% | 3.86 | 2.84 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 72 | 0 | 71 | 276 | 95 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 34.4% | 5.1% | 29.3% | 1.4% | 2.03 | 1.62 | +2.6 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 72 | 0 | 71 | 276 | 95 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 34.4% | 5.1% | 29.3% | 1.4% | 2.03 | 1.75 | +2.5 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 73 | 2 | 66 | 283 | 99 | 18 | 7 | 3% | 0.9 | 35.0% | 6.4% | 28.6% | 2.6% | 4.23 | 2.39 | +1.8 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 73 | 2 | 66 | 283 | 99 | 18 | 7 | 3% | 0.9 | 35.0% | 6.4% | 28.6% | 2.5% | 4.23 | 2.30 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 25 | 14 | 70 | 287 | 71 | 24 | 12 | 56% | 2.8 | 24.7% | 8.4% | 16.4% | 4.2% | 3.47 | 4.37 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | TB | 8 | 8 | 47 | 197 | 56 | 14 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 28.5% | 7.1% | 21.4% | 3.1% | 3.55 | 3.31 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | TB | 8 | 8 | 47 | 198 | 57 | 14 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 28.5% | 7.1% | 21.4% | 3.0% | 3.50 | 3.26 | +0.7 |
| 2026 TOT | 31 | MLB | TB | — | — | 117 | 484 | 127 | 38 | 18 | — | — | 26.3% | 7.9% | 18.4% | 3.8% | 3.50 | 3.94 | +2.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 31 | MLB | TB | — | — | 117 | 493 | 127 | 38 | 18 | — | — | 25.8% | 7.7% | 18.1% | 3.7% | 3.48 | 3.90 | +2.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | TB | 55 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 70 | 18 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.7% | 7.5% | 21.2% | 3.4% | 3.85 | 3.85 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | TB | 51 | 0 | 53 | 225 | 63 | 18 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.9% | 7.9% | 19.9% | 3.6% | 4.02 | 4.13 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | TB | 46 | 0 | 48 | 204 | 55 | 17 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.0% | 8.4% | 18.5% | 3.9% | 4.27 | 4.44 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | TB | 55 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 70 | 18 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.7% | 7.5% | 21.2% | 3.3% | 3.80 | 3.80 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | TB | 50 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 62 | 18 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.9% | 7.9% | 19.9% | 3.5% | 3.97 | 4.08 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | TB | 46 | 0 | 48 | 203 | 55 | 17 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.0% | 8.4% | 18.5% | 3.8% | 4.21 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 485 | 39 | 633 | 2641 | 720 | 186 | 88 | 8% | 1.3 | 27.3% | 7.1% | 20.2% | 3.3% | 3.92 | 3.52 | +13.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 153 | 12 | 200 | 834 | 228 | 59 | 28 | 8% | 1.3 | 27.3% | 7.1% | 20.2% | 3.3% | 3.92 | 3.52 | +4.4 | ||
| Career | — | 380 | 80 | 724 | 3002 | 657 | 194 | 75 | 21% | 1.9 | 21.9% | 6.5% | 15.4% | 2.5% | 3.65 | 3.45 | +16.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 105 | 22 | 200 | 829 | 181 | 54 | 21 | 21% | 1.9 | 21.9% | 6.5% | 15.4% | 2.5% | 3.65 | 3.45 | +4.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Griffin Jax (OGILVIE) | — | — | 2.74 | 34.1% | 6.0% | 2.5% | — | 4.12 | 27.9% | 20.0% | 160 | +1.38 | — | — | — |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.20 | 25.2% | 6.0% | 2.7% | .286 | 3.68 | 21.9% | 12.2% | 152 | +0.48 | 2.82 | 284 | 69 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 66 |
| Anthony Swarzak R 2026 · 2.45 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.45 | 30.0% | 5.9% | 2.1% | .277 | 5.30 | 23.7% | 12.8% | 80 | +2.85 | 2.45 | 260 | 65 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 65 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 65 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.52 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 210 | 65 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.04 | 28.1% | 6.1% | 2.8% | .257 | 3.20 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 89 | +0.16 | 2.82 | 316 | 65 |
| Mark Lowe R 2027 · 2.37 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.37 | 28.4% | 5.1% | 1.9% | .302 | 5.17 | 19.2% | 9.9% | 98 | +2.80 | 2.37 | 153 | 64 |
| Ryan Madson R 2029 · 2.97 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.97 | 23.4% | 5.2% | 2.2% | .244 | 2.98 | 23.9% | 18.7% | 176 | +0.01 | 1.42 | 240 | 64 |
| Tommy Nance R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.29 | 29.1% | 9.2% | 2.7% | .345 | 2.81 | 23.7% | 17.8% | 118 | -0.48 | 2.23 | 367 | 63 |
| Josh Lueke R 2025 · 2.50 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.50 | 30.0% | 4.1% | 2.6% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 107 | 63 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.40 | 25.5% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .254 | 3.69 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 129 | +0.29 | 2.73 | 410 | 63 |
| Radhames Liz R 2026 · 2.77 FIP | 31 | SW | 2.77 | 24.8% | 9.2% | 1.1% | .283 | 4.31 | 21.8% | 7.9% | 23 | +1.54 | 2.77 | 110 | 63 |
| Jay Jackson R 2026 · 2.91 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.91 | 32.4% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .272 | 3.61 | 29.4% | 19.9% | 41 | +0.70 | 2.41 | 261 | 62 |
| Jason Adam R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.45 | 31.1% | 9.0% | 3.3% | .222 | 3.03 | 25.3% | 18.2% | 171 | -0.42 | 2.45 | 394 | 62 |
| Joe Kelly R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.45 | 27.4% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .312 | 2.75 | 29.2% | 18.8% | 81 | -0.70 | 2.48 | 556 | 62 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.58 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 3.0% | .258 | 2.93 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.65 | 2.01 | 380 | 62 |
| Matt Bush R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.62 | 24.2% | 7.9% | 2.9% | .321 | 4.74 | 17.6% | 4.6% | 23 | +1.12 | 2.86 | 249 | 62 |
| Kenley Jansen R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.29 | 30.4% | 6.1% | 3.6% | .266 | 2.82 | 31.9% | 22.5% | 157 | -0.47 | 0.98 | 663 | 62 |
| Pedro Báez R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.26 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 2.3% | .207 | 4.46 | 18.6% | 8.6% | 17 | +1.20 | 2.39 | 332 | 61 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 56 | 29.6% | 7.4% | 1.28 | 3.74 |
| Blake Parker ('21) | 4 | 60 | 26.6% | 7.3% | 1.40 | 3.36 |
| Giovanny Gallegos ('24) | 6 | 52 | 29.4% | 6.6% | 1.19 | 3.46 |
| Sean Doolittle ('21) | 5 | 49 | 28.7% | 6.2% | 1.18 | 3.31 |
| Colin Poche ('24) | 4 | 52 | 27.0% | 9.2% | 1.34 | 3.63 |
| Chris Devenski ('24) | 6 | 62 | 26.0% | 6.9% | 1.25 | 3.61 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |