Griffin Jax — OGILVIE

Griffin Jax P Tampa Bay Rays

Age 31 RHP 6'2" / 195 lbs MLB Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 1.3 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION102 act + 10 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10092vR 84

ERA3.33

FIP3.09

K%27.9%

BB%7.0%

K-BB%20.9%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 112 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$0M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7575

CTRL6060

CMD6060

K†8080

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7196.0

Whiff%

p8030.0%

p6524.9%

xwOBA vs

p360.328

SI (22%)

CT (3%)

CU (9%)

SL (25%)

CH-1.6 (23%)

FB-3.3 (40%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2021

Service 4.529 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.1M
2027	Arb-3	$5M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.3M		$2M	+$0.1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	21	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	4	0	9	40	8	1	2	0%	2.2	20.0%	2.5%	17.5%	5.0%	4.15	4.47	—
2016	21	ROK RAW	Elizabethton Twins	4	0	9	40	8	1	2	0%	2.2	20.0%	2.5%	17.5%	5.0%	4.15	4.60	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	5	31	125	20	7	2	100%	6.2	9.2%	7.9%	1.3%	1.3%	2.61	4.02	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	5	31	125	20	7	2	100%	6.2	16.0%	5.6%	10.4%	1.6%	2.61	3.33	—
2018	23	A+ MLE	Fort Myers Miracle	15	14	88	369	66	15	3	93%	5.8	13.8%	4.7%	9.1%	1.0%	3.70	3.06	—
2018	23	A+ RAW	Fort Myers Miracle	15	14	88	369	66	15	3	93%	5.8	17.9%	4.1%	13.8%	0.8%	3.70	2.55	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	127	521	94	27	7	100%	5.5	14.7%	5.7%	9.1%	1.6%	2.90	3.45	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	127	521	94	27	7	100%	5.5	18.0%	5.2%	12.9%	1.3%	2.90	2.97	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	123	530	101	44	25	85%	4.7	18.2%	8.5%	9.8%	4.7%	5.50	5.20	-0.4
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	22	123	530	101	44	25	85%	4.7	19.1%	8.3%	10.8%	4.7%	5.50	5.18	-0.4
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	66	0	74	297	80	18	7	0%	1.1	26.9%	5.9%	21.0%	2.4%	3.27	2.89	+1.5
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	66	0	74	297	80	18	7	0%	1.1	26.9%	6.1%	20.9%	2.4%	3.27	2.90	+1.5
2023	28	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	71	0	65	274	68	18	5	0%	0.9	24.8%	6.6%	18.2%	1.8%	3.86	2.83	+1.3
2023	28	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	71	0	65	274	68	18	5	0%	0.9	24.8%	6.6%	18.2%	1.8%	3.86	2.83	+1.3
2023	28	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	71	0	65	274	68	18	5	0%	0.9	24.8%	6.6%	18.2%	1.8%	3.86	2.84	+1.3
2024	29	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	72	0	71	276	95	14	4	0%	1.0	34.4%	5.1%	29.3%	1.4%	2.03	1.63	+2.5
2024	29	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	72	0	71	276	95	14	4	0%	1.0	34.4%	5.1%	29.3%	1.4%	2.03	1.63	+2.5
2024	29	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	72	0	71	276	95	14	4	0%	1.0	34.4%	5.1%	29.3%	1.4%	2.03	1.75	+2.4
2025	30	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	73	2	66	283	99	18	7	3%	0.9	35.0%	6.4%	28.6%	2.4%	4.23	2.27	+1.8
2025	30	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	73	2	66	283	99	18	7	3%	0.9	35.0%	6.4%	28.6%	2.4%	4.23	2.27	+1.8
2025	30	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	73	2	66	283	99	18	7	3%	0.9	35.0%	6.4%	28.6%	2.5%	4.23	2.30	+1.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			330	36	456	1896	508	127	61	11%	1.4	26.8%	6.7%	20.1%	3.2%	4.03	3.45	+6.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	32	21	102	427	105	34	15	66%	3.2	24.9%	7.7%	17.2%	3.7%	4.13	4.03	+1.1
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	32	21	102	427	105	34	15	66%	3.2	24.9%	7.7%	17.2%	3.7%	4.13	4.03	+1.1
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	AAA RAW	TB	1	1	3	14	2	2	0	100%	3.0	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	0.0%	9.00	3.70	—
2026	31	MLB RAW	TB	31	20	99	413	103	32	15	65%	3.2	24.9%	7.7%	17.2%	3.6%	3.99	3.97	+1.1
SO FAR	31	MLB RAW	TB	31	20	99	413	103	32	15	65%	3.2	24.9%	7.7%	17.2%	3.6%	3.99	3.97	+1.1
ROS	31	MLB MLE	TB	2	2	10	41	12	3	1	100%	4.9	27.9%	7.0%	20.9%	2.7%	3.33	3.09	+0.2
ROS	31	MLB CTX	TB	2	2	10	42	12	3	1	100%	5.0	27.9%	7.0%	20.9%	2.7%	3.37	3.13	+0.2
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	TB	—	—	112	468	117	37	16	—	—	24.9%	7.9%	17.0%	3.4%	4.06	3.94	+1.3
FULL	31	MLB A+C	TB	—	—	109	461	117	37	16	—	—	25.3%	8.0%	17.3%	3.5%	4.18	3.90	+1.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	TB	55	0	58	245	69	18	8	0%	1.1	28.0%	7.4%	20.6%	3.2%	3.82	3.82	+0.5
2028	33	MLB MLE	TB	51	0	53	225	61	18	8	0%	1.0	27.2%	7.9%	19.3%	3.5%	3.99	4.10	+0.3
2027	32	MLB CTX	TB	55	0	58	245	69	18	8	0%	1.1	28.0%	7.4%	20.6%	3.3%	3.87	3.87	+0.5
2028	33	MLB CTX	TB	50	0	53	224	61	18	8	0%	1.1	27.2%	7.9%	19.3%	3.6%	4.05	4.16	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		438	38	577	2407	649	166	78	9%	1.3	27.0%	6.9%	20.1%	3.3%	4.00	3.48	+7.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		152	13	200	834	225	58	27	9%	1.3	27.0%	6.9%	20.1%	3.3%	4.00	3.48	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		387	87	756	3142	692	203	79	22%	2.0	22.0%	6.5%	15.6%	2.5%	3.74	3.44	+7.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		102	23	200	831	183	54	21	22%	2.0	22.0%	6.5%	15.6%	2.5%	3.74	3.44	+2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Griffin Jax (OGILVIE)	—	—	2.71	34.1%	6.1%	2.4%	—	3.95	27.6%	20.0%	111	+1.24	—	—	—
Brad Brach R 2017 · 3.36 FIP	31	SU	3.36	25.5%	9.1%	2.3%	.254	3.68	22.8%	11.1%	129	+0.32	2.69	410	68
Tommy Hunter R 2017 · 2.99 FIP	31	SU	2.99	28.1%	6.1%	2.7%	.257	3.16	20.5%	15.1%	89	+0.17	2.78	316	68
Blake Wood R 2017 · 3.44 FIP	31	SU	3.44	25.3%	9.3%	2.4%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	210	68
Jumbo Diaz R 2015 · 3.16 FIP	31	SU	3.16	25.2%	6.0%	2.6%	.286	3.65	21.9%	12.2%	152	+0.49	2.80	284	68
Joe Kelly R 2019 · 3.30 FIP	31	SU	3.30	27.4%	8.8%	2.5%	.312	2.71	29.2%	18.8%	81	-0.59	2.38	556	67
Pedro Báez R 2019 · 3.14 FIP	31	SU	3.14	25.0%	8.0%	2.1%	.207	4.30	18.6%	8.6%	17	+1.16	2.29	332	67
Kenley Jansen R 2019 · 3.10 FIP	31	SU	3.10	30.4%	6.1%	3.3%	.266	2.77	31.9%	22.5%	157	-0.33	0.89	681	67
Sam Dyson R 2019 · 3.21 FIP	31	SU	3.21	22.1%	5.2%	2.4%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	2.66	333	66
Anthony Swarzak R 2017 · 2.35 FIP	31	SU	2.35	30.0%	5.9%	1.9%	.277	5.30	23.7%	12.8%	80	+2.95	2.35	260	66
Ross Ohlendorf R 2015 · 3.30 FIP	32	SU	3.30	23.7%	7.2%	2.3%	.342	4.93	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.63	3.30	122	65
Radhames Liz R 2015 · 2.81 FIP	31	SW	2.81	24.8%	9.2%	1.2%	.283	4.45	21.8%	7.9%	23	+1.64	2.81	110	65
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	65
Jason Adam R 2023 · 3.40 FIP	31	SU	3.40	31.1%	9.0%	3.2%	.222	2.95	25.3%	18.2%	171	-0.45	2.42	394	65
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	212	64
Matt Bush R 2017 · 3.60 FIP	31	SU	3.60	24.2%	7.9%	2.8%	.321	4.72	17.6%	4.6%	23	+1.12	2.87	249	64
Tommy Nance R 2022 · 3.28 FIP	31	SU	3.28	29.1%	9.2%	2.7%	.345	2.78	22.9%	17.5%	118	-0.50	2.12	354	64
Ryan Madson R 2015 · 2.99 FIP	34	SU	2.99	23.4%	5.2%	2.2%	.244	2.96	23.9%	18.7%	176	-0.03	1.42	240	63
Mark Lowe R 2015 · 2.37 FIP	32	SU	2.37	28.4%	5.1%	1.9%	.302	5.22	19.2%	9.9%	98	+2.85	2.37	153	63
David Robertson R 2016 · 3.27 FIP	31	SU	3.27	28.1%	10.5%	2.2%	.297	2.39	34.6%	26.8%	138	-0.88	2.00	494	63
Luis García R 2018 · 3.05 FIP	31	SU	3.05	25.0%	8.3%	1.8%	.341	4.16	22.5%	13.9%	113	+1.11	2.33	617	63

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	29.9%	7.1%	1.17	3.56
Sean Doolittle ('21)	1.2	49	28.7%	6.2%	1.18	3.31
Blake Parker ('21)	1.2	60	26.6%	7.3%	1.40	3.36
Giovanny Gallegos ('24)	1.5	52	29.4%	6.6%	1.19	3.46
Seunghwan Oh ('18)	1.0	69	27.7%	5.9%	1.00	2.78
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Diego Castillo ('22)	1.3	52	28.1%	8.9%	1.07	3.12