Griffin Jax — OGILVIE

Griffin Jax P Tampa Bay Rays

+1.6 WAR

Age 31 RHP 6'2" / 195 lbs MLB Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 1.5 · 2026

ERA3.11

FIP2.93

xFIP4.48

SIERA4.49

K%32.0%

BB%6.6%

K-BB%25.3%

IP63

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.5peak

2026

K†7070

FB Velo

p8597.0

Whiff%

p9037.3%

p9035.0%

xwOBA vs

p810.282

SI (18%)

CT (5%)

CU (7%)

SL (26%)

CH-1.6 (18%)

FB-3.3 (43%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2016	21	ROK	Elizabethton Twins	4	0	9	40	8	1	2	—	—	—	4.15	—	—
2017	22	A	Cedar Rapids Kernels	5	5	31	125	20	7	2	9.2%	7.9%	1.3%	2.61	4.02	+0.3
2018	23	A+	Fort Myers Miracle	15	14	88	369	66	15	3	13.8%	4.7%	1.0%	3.70	3.05	+2.1
2019	24	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	23	23	127	521	94	27	7	14.7%	5.7%	1.6%	2.90	3.45	+2.7
2021	26	MLB	Minnesota Twins	26	22	123	530	101	44	25	18.2%	8.5%	4.9%	5.50	5.34	-0.1
2022	27	MLB	Minnesota Twins	66	0	74	297	80	18	7	26.9%	5.9%	2.2%	3.27	2.80	+1.9
2023	28	MLB	Minnesota Twins	71	0	65	274	68	18	5	24.8%	6.6%	2.0%	3.86	2.93	+1.5
2024	29	MLB	Minnesota Twins	72	0	71	276	95	14	4	34.4%	5.1%	1.5%	2.03	1.65	+2.7
2025	30	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	73	2	66	283	99	18	7	35.0%	6.4%	2.4%	4.23	2.27	+2.0
▸ 2026 Season
2026	31	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	8	0	6	31	5	5	1	—	—	—	7.50	—	—
ROS	31	MLB	TB	57	—	57	239	80	16	6	33.5%	6.6%	2.5%	2.97	2.84	+1.4
2026 Total	31	MLB	TB	—	—	63	270	85	21	7	31.5%	7.7%	2.5%	3.40	2.57	+1.7
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	32	MLB	TB	11	11	60	254	78	19	7	30.6%	7.6%	2.6%	3.28	3.27	+1.1
2028	33	MLB	TB	58	—	58	243	73	19	6	29.9%	7.7%	2.7%	3.35	3.40	+1.0
2029	34	MLB	TB	55	—	55	231	67	18	6	29.2%	7.9%	2.8%	3.46	3.54	+0.9
2030	35	MLB	TB	52	—	52	217	62	18	6	28.5%	8.2%	2.9%	3.60	3.69	+0.7
2031	36	MLB	TB	48	—	48	204	56	17	6	27.7%	8.4%	3.0%	3.75	3.85	+0.6
2032	37	MLB	TB	45	—	45	189	51	16	6	26.9%	8.7%	3.1%	3.92	4.03	+0.5
2033	38	MLB	TB	41	—	41	174	45	16	6	26.0%	9.0%	3.3%	4.10	4.21	+0.3
2034	39	MLB	TB	38	—	38	160	40	15	5	25.2%	9.3%	3.4%	4.28	4.40	+0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			363	66	660	2746	591	175	66	21.5%	6.4%	2.4%	3.71	3.40	+14.2
/ 200 IP	—			110	20	200	832	179	53	20	21.5%	6.4%	2.4%	3.71	3.40	+4.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Griffin Jax (OGILVIE)	—	—	2.84	33.5%	6.6%	2.5%	—	3.40	29.9%	22.2%	172	+0.56	—	—	—
Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 3.21 FIP	31	SW	3.21	25.2%	6.0%	2.7%	.286	3.66	21.9%	12.2%	152	+0.45	2.80	284	75
Anthony Swarzak R 2026 · 2.35 FIP	31	SW	2.35	30.0%	5.9%	1.9%	.277	5.22	23.7%	12.8%	80	+2.87	2.35	260	72
Mark Lowe R 2027 · 2.30 FIP	32	SW	2.30	28.4%	5.1%	1.7%	.302	5.15	19.2%	9.9%	98	+2.85	2.30	153	72
Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.00 FIP	31	SW	3.00	28.1%	6.1%	2.7%	.257	3.13	20.5%	15.1%	89	+0.13	2.73	316	71
Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.73 FIP	31	SW	3.73	24.5%	8.2%	3.0%	.325	3.80	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.07	3.65	137	70
Ryan Madson R 2029 · 2.94 FIP	34	SW	2.94	23.4%	5.2%	2.1%	.244	2.97	23.9%	18.7%	176	+0.03	1.43	240	70
Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.33 FIP	32	SW	3.33	23.7%	7.2%	2.4%	.342	4.98	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.65	3.33	122	69
Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.35 FIP	31	SW	3.35	25.3%	9.3%	2.2%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.91	210	69
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 3.38 FIP	31	SW	3.38	26.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.241	3.98	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.60	3.38	212	69
Josh Lueke R 2025 · 2.32 FIP	30	SW	2.32	30.0%	4.1%	2.2%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	2.32	107	69
Jason Adam R 2026 · 3.26 FIP	31	SW	3.26	31.1%	9.0%	3.0%	.222	2.53	27.4%	20.0%	139	-0.73	2.40	362	68
Kenley Jansen R 2026 · 3.04 FIP	31	SW	3.04	30.4%	6.1%	3.2%	.266	2.65	31.9%	22.5%	157	-0.39	0.97	640	68
Jay Jackson R 2026 · 2.84 FIP	31	SW	2.84	32.4%	9.1%	2.4%	.272	3.57	29.4%	19.9%	41	+0.73	2.37	261	67
Joe Kelly R 2026 · 3.25 FIP	31	SW	3.25	27.4%	8.8%	2.5%	.312	2.66	29.2%	18.8%	81	-0.59	2.39	556	67
Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.39 FIP	31	SW	3.39	25.5%	9.1%	2.4%	.254	3.70	22.8%	11.1%	129	+0.31	2.80	410	67
Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.48 FIP	31	SW	3.48	23.5%	6.6%	2.8%	.258	2.91	26.6%	18.9%	183	-0.57	2.00	380	66
Dellin Betances R 2025 · 1.96 FIP	30	SW	1.96	42.3%	8.8%	2.4%	.294	4.10	18.6%	-1.7%	12	+2.14	1.42	308	66
Pedro Báez R 2026 · 3.10 FIP	31	SW	3.10	25.0%	8.0%	2.0%	.207	4.27	18.6%	8.6%	17	+1.17	2.29	332	66
Matt Bush R 2026 · 3.65 FIP	31	SW	3.65	24.2%	7.9%	2.9%	.321	4.65	17.6%	4.6%	23	+1.00	2.88	249	66
David Robertson R 2026 · 3.30 FIP	31	SW	3.30	28.1%	10.5%	2.3%	.297	2.39	34.6%	26.8%	138	-0.91	2.00	494	65

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2021

Service 4.529 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-2	$4M	+1.5	$12M	+$8M
2027	Arb-3	$9M	+1.1	$9M	+$0.1M
Totals		$13M		$21M	+$8M