Griffin Jax

P Tampa Bay Rays

Age 32 RHP 6'2" / 195 lbs MLB Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 0.9 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANArb-3FA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	29	MLBMIN	72	0	71	2.03	1.75	34.4%	5.1%	2.4
2025	30	MLBTB	73	2	66	4.23	2.30	35.0%	6.4%	1.8
2026	31	MIX2 levels	35	24	115	3.67	3.68	24.9%	7.6%	2.4	K 25.3% · BB 7.4% · FIP 3.75
2027PROJ	32	MLBTB	77	0	81	3.60	3.60	29.0%	7.1%	0.9
2028PROJ	33	MLBTB	70	0	74	3.56	3.56	30.1%	6.7%	0.9
2029PROJ	34	MLBTB	59	0	62	3.74	3.87	29.2%	7.2%	0.5

Last 3 seasons WAR 6.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service5.529First FA2028

2027Arb-3$4M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo70

K%67

xwOBA vs45

Form3.05 ERA (proj 3.60) · K 20.0% (proj 29.0%) · BB 6.2% (proj 7.1%) ▼▼ last 60d · 21 IP through Oct 27

CompsChris Hatcher (age 32) · Akinori Otsuka (age 32) · Scot Shields (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10496vR 88

ERA3.60

FIP3.60

K%29.0%

BB%7.1%

K-BB%21.9%

Proj IP81

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 81 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7095.9

Whiff%

p8030.0%

p6725.3%

xwOBA vs

p450.317

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2021

Service 5.529 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-3	$4M	+0.9	$4M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	21	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	4	0	9	40	8	1	2	0%	2.2	20.0%	2.5%	17.5%	5.0%	4.15	4.47	—
2016	21	ROK RAW	Elizabethton Twins	4	0	9	40	8	1	2	0%	2.2	20.0%	2.5%	17.5%	5.0%	4.15	4.60	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	5	31	125	20	7	2	100%	6.2	9.2%	7.9%	1.3%	1.3%	2.61	4.02	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	5	31	125	20	7	2	100%	6.2	16.0%	5.6%	10.4%	1.6%	2.61	3.33	—
2018	23	A+ MLE	Fort Myers Miracle	15	14	88	369	66	15	3	93%	5.8	13.8%	4.7%	9.1%	1.0%	3.70	3.06	—
2018	23	A+ RAW	Fort Myers Miracle	15	14	88	369	66	15	3	93%	5.8	17.9%	4.1%	13.8%	0.8%	3.70	2.55	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	127	521	94	27	7	100%	5.5	14.7%	5.7%	9.1%	1.6%	2.90	3.45	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	127	521	94	27	7	100%	5.5	18.0%	5.2%	12.9%	1.3%	2.90	2.97	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	123	530	101	44	25	85%	4.7	18.2%	8.5%	9.8%	4.7%	5.50	5.20	+0.3
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	22	123	530	101	44	25	85%	4.7	19.1%	8.3%	10.8%	4.7%	5.50	5.18	+0.3
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	66	0	74	297	80	18	7	0%	1.1	26.9%	5.9%	21.0%	2.4%	3.27	2.89	+1.5
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	66	0	74	297	80	18	7	0%	1.1	26.9%	6.1%	20.9%	2.4%	3.27	2.90	+1.5
2023	28	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	71	0	65	274	68	18	5	0%	0.9	24.8%	6.6%	18.2%	1.8%	3.86	2.83	+1.3
2023	28	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	71	0	65	274	68	18	5	0%	0.9	24.8%	6.6%	18.2%	1.8%	3.86	2.84	+1.3
2024	29	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	72	0	71	276	95	14	4	0%	1.0	34.4%	5.1%	29.3%	1.4%	2.03	1.63	+2.5
2024	29	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	72	0	71	276	95	14	4	0%	1.0	34.4%	5.1%	29.3%	1.4%	2.03	1.63	+2.5
2024	29	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	72	0	71	276	95	14	4	0%	1.0	34.4%	5.1%	29.3%	1.4%	2.03	1.75	+2.4
2025	30	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	73	2	66	283	99	18	7	3%	0.9	35.0%	6.4%	28.6%	2.4%	4.23	2.27	+1.8
2025	30	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	73	2	66	283	99	18	7	3%	0.9	35.0%	6.4%	28.6%	2.4%	4.23	2.27	+1.8
2025	30	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	73	2	66	283	99	18	7	3%	0.9	35.0%	6.4%	28.6%	2.5%	4.23	2.30	+1.8
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	24	115	473	118	36	15	69%	3.3	25.3%	7.4%	17.9%	3.4%	3.67	3.75	+2.3
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	24	115	473	118	36	15	69%	3.3	25.3%	7.4%	17.9%	3.4%	3.67	3.75	+2.3
2026	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	24	115	473	118	36	15	69%	3.3	24.9%	7.6%	17.3%	3.2%	3.67	3.68	+2.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			333	39	469	1942	521	129	61	12%	1.4	26.8%	6.6%	20.2%	3.1%	3.91	3.39	+6.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	TB	77	0	81	342	99	24	10	0%	1.1	29.0%	7.1%	21.9%	3.1%	3.60	3.60	+0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	TB	71	0	74	313	94	21	10	0%	1.0	30.1%	6.7%	23.4%	3.3%	3.61	3.61	+0.9
2029	34	MLB MLE	TB	59	0	62	262	77	19	10	0%	1.1	29.2%	7.2%	22.0%	3.6%	3.79	3.92	+0.5
2028	33	MLB CTX	TB	70	0	74	312	94	21	10	0%	1.1	30.1%	6.7%	23.4%	3.2%	3.56	3.56	+0.9
2029	34	MLB CTX	TB	59	0	62	262	76	19	9	0%	1.1	29.2%	7.2%	22.0%	3.5%	3.74	3.87	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		463	39	605	2517	692	169	80	8%	1.3	27.5%	6.7%	20.8%	3.2%	3.85	3.38	+8.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		153	13	200	832	229	56	26	8%	1.3	27.5%	6.7%	20.8%	3.2%	3.85	3.38	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		390	90	769	3188	705	205	79	23%	2.0	22.1%	6.4%	15.7%	2.5%	3.67	3.41	+7.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		101	23	200	829	183	53	21	23%	2.0	22.1%	6.4%	15.7%	2.5%	3.67	3.41	+2.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2021 AAASt. Paul Saints · 41 IPFIP 3.15 → 3.41 (+0.26)K% 21.2% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.18%	—	×0.880	18.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.41%	—	×1.050	9.88%
HR / BF /BF	1.18%	÷1.121	×1.100	1.15%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 124).

Result: FIP 3.15 → 3.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 111 IPFIP 2.81 → 3.30 (+0.49)K% 18.6% → 15.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.63%	—	×0.810	15.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.32%	—	×1.100	5.85%
HR / BF /BF	1.11%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.33%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.81 → 3.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAARochester Red Wings · 16 IPFIP 4.00 → 4.41 (+0.41)K% 14.3% → 12.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.29%	—	×0.880	12.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.29%	—	×1.050	4.50%
HR / BF /BF	2.86%	÷0.958	×1.100	3.28%

Result: FIP 4.00 → 4.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Fort Myers Miracle · 88 IPFIP 2.55 → 3.06 (+0.50)K% 17.9% → 13.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.89%	—	×0.770	13.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.07%	—	×1.150	4.67%
HR / BF /BF	0.81%	÷1.059	×1.250	0.96%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP 2.55 → 3.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 ACedar Rapids Kernels · 26 IPFIP 3.42 → 4.02 (+0.60)K% 12.5% → 9.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.50%	—	×0.740	9.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.73%	—	×1.180	7.94%
HR / BF /BF	0.96%	÷0.984	×1.300	1.27%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 97).

Result: FIP 3.42 → 4.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 ROKElizabethton Twins · 5 IPFIP 2.90 → 4.85 (+1.95)K% 33.3% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.680	22.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.250	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	4.76%	÷1.000	×1.400	6.67%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.90 → 4.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 ROKElizabethton Twins · 9 IPFIP 4.47 → 6.19 (+1.72)K% 20.0% → 13.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.680	13.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.50%	—	×1.250	3.12%
HR / BF /BF	5.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	7.00%

Result: FIP 4.47 → 6.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Griffin Jax (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	3.75	29.7%	22.8%	136	+0.15	—	—	—
Chris Hatcher R 2017 · 4.31 FIP	32	SU	4.31	24.5%	7.4%	4.3%	.291	5.32	18.0%	8.4%	36	+1.01	2.51	246	60
Akinori Otsuka R 2004 · 2.61 FIP	32	SU	2.61	27.9%	6.4%	1.9%	.251	2.78	20.3%	13.4%	155	+0.17	2.39	232	60
Scot Shields R 2007 · 3.58 FIP	32	SU	3.58	24.1%	10.3%	2.2%	.271	4.26	20.3%	7.3%	127	+0.68	2.77	686	60
Jose Veras R 2013 · 3.51 FIP	32	SU	3.51	23.6%	8.3%	2.5%	.234	4.28	21.9%	10.2%	65	+0.77	3.37	422	59
George Kontos R 2017 · 3.71 FIP	32	SU	3.71	25.2%	6.5%	3.5%	.287	4.41	14.7%	8.6%	97	+0.70	2.56	421	58
Jumbo Diaz R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	32	SU	3.85	22.3%	9.2%	2.7%	.247	3.28	23.0%	13.8%	141	-0.57	2.80	319	57
Nick Martinez R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	32	SU	3.62	23.0%	8.5%	2.5%	.286	3.71	17.3%	13.0%	488	+0.09	2.94	1,288	57
Dale Thayer R 2013 · 3.62 FIP	32	SU	3.62	23.7%	7.4%	2.9%	.287	3.85	20.6%	15.0%	103	+0.23	2.75	239	56
Grant Balfour R 2010 · 2.59 FIP	32	SU	2.59	25.2%	6.8%	1.4%	.270	3.50	25.6%	16.7%	199	+0.91	2.04	533	56
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2000 · 3.93 FIP	32	SU	3.93	29.4%	9.8%	3.8%	.212	2.88	24.9%	19.3%	161	-1.05	2.76	223	56
Jay Jackson R 2019 · 2.80 FIP	31	SU	2.80	32.4%	9.1%	2.3%	.272	3.59	29.4%	19.9%	41	+0.79	2.36	261	56
Steve Delabar R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	32	SU	3.74	25.0%	9.9%	2.7%	.246	4.62	20.4%	4.8%	24	+0.88	2.43	229	54
Jared Burton R 2013 · 3.20 FIP	32	SU	3.20	21.7%	6.0%	2.1%	.279	3.92	18.4%	10.0%	78	+0.72	3.09	367	54
Santiago Casilla R 2012 · 3.98 FIP	32	SU	3.98	20.2%	6.6%	3.2%	.246	3.23	21.6%	13.7%	166	-0.75	2.76	647	54
Gregory Infante R 2018 · 4.07 FIP	31	SU	4.07	22.0%	4.6%	4.1%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	230	53
Spencer Bivens R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	30	SU	4.07	18.0%	5.8%	3.2%	.265	3.88	18.2%	10.9%	157	-0.19	3.52	391	52
Josh Fields R 2018 · 3.48 FIP	32	SU	3.48	21.4%	6.5%	2.5%	.224	7.56	18.9%	9.5%	25	+4.08	1.80	330	52
Huascar Brazobán R 2022 · 3.77 FIP	32	SU	3.77	28.5%	11.4%	3.0%	.275	3.49	23.3%	12.9%	187	-0.28	3.08	370	52
Kerry Ligtenberg R 2003 · 4.06 FIP	32	SU	4.06	19.0%	4.5%	3.6%	.283	3.65	18.6%	11.8%	55	-0.41	2.94	381	52
Joe Borowski R 2003 · 2.90 FIP	32	SU	2.90	23.6%	6.4%	1.8%	.251	4.30	18.1%	9.9%	137	+1.40	2.90	436	52

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.4	76	27.7%	7.1%	1.24	3.83
Bob James ('78-'87, 4 WAR*)	2.0	68	26.3%*	8.8%*	1.07*	4.04*
Cecilio Guante ('82-'90, 6 WAR*)	3.0	66	26.6%*	9.2%*	1.30*	3.85*
Joe Beckwith ('79-'86, 3 WAR*)	2.1	70	24.9%*	8.2%*	1.13*	3.96*
Will Smith ('24)	3.3	59	27.4%	8.7%	1.16	3.85
Eric Gagne ('08)	3.2	80	27.0%	8.5%	1.06	3.47
Trevor May ('23)	2.3	50	26.8%	8.5%	1.20	4.24