Ryan Vilade
RF Tampa Bay Rays| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | AAADET | 442 | .278/.351/.449 | 13 | 20 | 77 | — | .225/.280/.370 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLBDET | 49 | .178/.213/.244 | 1 | 0 | 24 | -0.9 | |
| 2025 | 26 | AAACIN | 461 | .290/.382/.511 | 17 | 11 | 99 | — | .238/.311/.410 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLBCIN | 15 | .077/.200/.077 | 0 | 0 | -12 | -0.7 | |
| 2026 | 27 | MLBTB | 278 | .245/.325/.429 | 11 | 3 | 109 | 0.7 | |
| 2027PROJ | 28 | MLBTB | 217 | .249/.322/.415 | 7 | 9 | 107 | 0.6 | |
| 2028PROJ92% MLB | 29 | MLBTB | 215 | .246/.319/.408 | 7 | 7 | 105 | 0.4 |
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 60 / POW 60
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | Grand Junction Rockies | — | 146 | 117 | 36 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 27 | 31 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 308 | 441 | 496 | 937 | 188 | 378 | 21 | 18 | 415 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | A | Asheville Tourists | — | 533 | 457 | 125 | 20 | 4 | 5 | 49 | 96 | 9 | 17 | 13 | 274 | 355 | 368 | 722 | 94 | 333 | 18 | 9 | 319 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A+ | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 587 | 509 | 154 | 27 | 10 | 12 | 56 | 95 | 3 | 24 | 7 | 303 | 375 | 466 | 841 | 163 | 342 | 16 | 10 | 361 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 518 | 468 | 133 | 28 | 5 | 7 | 38 | 92 | 4 | 12 | 5 | 284 | 343 | 410 | 753 | 126 | 336 | 18 | 7 | 332 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | INTL | Salt River Rafters | — | 90 | 79 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 253 | 344 | 304 | 648 | 51 | 317 | 18 | 11 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 430 | 369 | 92 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 52 | 69 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 249 | 348 | 352 | 701 | 103 | 291 | 16 | 12 | 318 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | — | 511 | 440 | 119 | 23 | 4 | 6 | 64 | 127 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 270 | 371 | 382 | 752 | 111 | 367 | 25 | 13 | 343 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | — | 49 | 45 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 178 | 213 | 244 | 457 | 67 | 212 | 24 | 4 | 200 | 24 | -4 | +0 | -0 | -5 | +1 | -0.9 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 442 | 392 | 109 | 24 | 2 | 13 | 39 | 108 | 5 | 20 | 7 | 278 | 351 | 449 | 800 | 171 | 347 | 24 | 9 | 351 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | — | 15 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 77 | 200 | 77 | 277 | 125 | 33 | 13 | 153 | -12 | -2 | +0 | -0 | -5 | +0 | -0.7 | |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 461 | 397 | 115 | 29 | 4 | 17 | 50 | 89 | 9 | 11 | 2 | 290 | 382 | 511 | 893 | 222 | 332 | 19 | 11 | 389 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 278 | 245 | 60 | 8 | 2 | 11 | 26 | 65 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 245 | 325 | 429 | 753 | 184 | 285 | 23 | 9 | 331 | 109 | +3 | +0 | +1 | -3 | +6 | 0.7 |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 342 | 303 | 69 | 8 | 2 | 12 | 30 | 82 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 228 | 304 | 386 | 690 | 158 | 268 | 24 | 9 | 305 | 92 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -13 | +7 | -0.9 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 18 | ROK MLE | Grand Junction Rockies | — | 146 | 127 | 28 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 45 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 220 | 317 | 346 | 664 | 126 | 310 | 31 | 12 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | A MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 533 | 473 | 122 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 34 | 129 | 9 | 17 | 13 | 258 | 320 | 338 | 658 | 80 | 325 | 24 | 6 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A+ MLE | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 587 | 521 | 123 | 21 | 7 | 9 | 44 | 134 | 3 | 24 | 7 | 236 | 299 | 355 | 654 | 119 | 279 | 23 | 7 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 518 | 480 | 116 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 26 | 115 | 4 | 12 | 5 | 242 | 286 | 335 | 622 | 94 | 301 | 22 | 5 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 430 | 381 | 86 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 40 | 83 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 226 | 306 | 312 | 618 | 87 | 270 | 19 | 9 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 511 | 460 | 107 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 44 | 158 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 233 | 308 | 313 | 621 | 80 | 344 | 31 | 9 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB MLE | Detroit Tigers | — | 49 | 45 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 178 | 213 | 244 | 457 | 67 | 212 | 24 | 4 | 204 | 24 | -4 | +0 | -0 | -5 | +1 | -0.9 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 442 | 405 | 91 | 19 | 2 | 12 | 26 | 127 | 5 | 20 | 7 | 225 | 280 | 370 | 650 | 146 | 282 | 29 | 6 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB MLE | Cincinnati Reds | — | 15 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 77 | 200 | 77 | 277 | 125 | 33 | 13 | 150 | -12 | -2 | +0 | -0 | -5 | +0 | -0.7 | |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 461 | 412 | 98 | 24 | 4 | 13 | 35 | 110 | 9 | 11 | 2 | 238 | 311 | 410 | 722 | 172 | 286 | 24 | 8 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB MLE | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 278 | 246 | 59 | 8 | 2 | 11 | 25 | 65 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 240 | 318 | 423 | 740 | 183 | 285 | 23 | 9 | 329 | 109 | +3 | +0 | +1 | -3 | +6 | 0.7 |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK MLE | Grand Junction Rockies | — | 146 | 127 | 28 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 45 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 220 | 317 | 346 | 664 | 126 | 304 | 31 | 12 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK RAW | Grand Junction Rockies | — | 146 | 117 | 36 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 27 | 31 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 308 | 441 | 496 | 937 | 188 | 378 | 21 | 18 | 415 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | A MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 533 | 473 | 122 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 34 | 129 | 9 | 17 | 13 | 258 | 320 | 338 | 658 | 80 | 343 | 24 | 6 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | A RAW | Asheville Tourists | — | 533 | 457 | 125 | 20 | 4 | 5 | 49 | 96 | 9 | 17 | 13 | 274 | 355 | 368 | 722 | 94 | 333 | 18 | 9 | 319 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A+ MLE | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 587 | 521 | 123 | 21 | 7 | 9 | 44 | 134 | 3 | 24 | 7 | 236 | 299 | 355 | 654 | 119 | 292 | 23 | 7 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A+ RAW | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 587 | 509 | 154 | 27 | 10 | 12 | 56 | 95 | 3 | 24 | 7 | 303 | 375 | 466 | 841 | 163 | 342 | 16 | 10 | 361 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 608 | 565 | 138 | 30 | 5 | 5 | 30 | 135 | 5 | 15 | 5 | 244 | 288 | 342 | 630 | 97 | 309 | 22 | 5 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 608 | 547 | 153 | 30 | 6 | 7 | 48 | 108 | 5 | 15 | 5 | 280 | 343 | 395 | 738 | 115 | 333 | 18 | 8 | 328 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 430 | 381 | 86 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 40 | 83 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 226 | 306 | 312 | 618 | 87 | 275 | 19 | 9 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AAA RAW | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 430 | 369 | 92 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 52 | 69 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 249 | 348 | 352 | 701 | 103 | 291 | 16 | 12 | 318 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 511 | 460 | 107 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 44 | 158 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 233 | 308 | 313 | 621 | 80 | 344 | 31 | 9 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA RAW | Indianapolis Indians | — | 511 | 440 | 119 | 23 | 4 | 6 | 64 | 127 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 270 | 371 | 382 | 752 | 111 | 367 | 25 | 13 | 343 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 491 | 450 | 99 | 19 | 2 | 13 | 28 | 139 | 5 | 20 | 7 | 220 | 273 | 358 | 631 | 138 | 282 | 28 | 6 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 491 | 437 | 117 | 24 | 2 | 14 | 41 | 120 | 5 | 20 | 7 | 268 | 337 | 428 | 765 | 160 | 332 | 24 | 8 | 336 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 476 | 425 | 99 | 24 | 4 | 13 | 37 | 115 | 9 | 11 | 2 | 233 | 308 | 400 | 708 | 167 | 286 | 24 | 8 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 476 | 410 | 116 | 29 | 4 | 17 | 52 | 94 | 9 | 11 | 2 | 283 | 376 | 498 | 873 | 215 | 327 | 20 | 11 | 382 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB MLE | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 278 | 246 | 59 | 8 | 2 | 11 | 25 | 65 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 240 | 318 | 423 | 740 | 183 | 277 | 23 | 9 | 329 | 109 | +3 | +0 | +1 | -3 | +6 | 0.7 |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB RAW | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 278 | 245 | 60 | 8 | 2 | 11 | 26 | 65 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 245 | 325 | 429 | 753 | 184 | 285 | 23 | 9 | 331 | 109 | +3 | +0 | +1 | -3 | +6 | 0.7 |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK MLE | Grand Junction Rockies | — | 146 | 127 | 28 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 45 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 220 | 317 | 346 | 664 | 126 | 310 | 31 | 12 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | A MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 533 | 485 | 122 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 34 | 129 | 9 | 17 | 13 | 252 | 320 | 330 | 650 | 78 | 325 | 24 | 6 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A+ MLE | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 587 | 535 | 123 | 21 | 7 | 9 | 44 | 134 | 3 | 24 | 7 | 230 | 299 | 346 | 645 | 116 | 279 | 23 | 7 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 608 | 568 | 138 | 30 | 5 | 5 | 30 | 135 | 5 | 15 | 5 | 243 | 288 | 340 | 628 | 97 | 301 | 22 | 5 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 430 | 383 | 86 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 40 | 83 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 225 | 306 | 311 | 617 | 86 | 270 | 19 | 9 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 511 | 456 | 107 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 44 | 158 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 235 | 308 | 316 | 624 | 81 | 344 | 31 | 9 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 491 | 455 | 99 | 19 | 2 | 13 | 28 | 139 | 5 | 20 | 7 | 218 | 273 | 354 | 627 | 136 | 275 | 28 | 6 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 476 | 427 | 99 | 24 | 4 | 13 | 37 | 115 | 9 | 11 | 2 | 232 | 308 | 398 | 706 | 166 | 281 | 24 | 8 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB MLE | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 278 | 248 | 59 | 8 | 2 | 11 | 25 | 65 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 238 | 318 | 419 | 737 | 181 | 285 | 23 | 9 | 329 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 491 | 455 | 99 | 19 | 2 | 13 | 28 | 139 | 5 | 20 | 7 | 218 | 273 | 354 | 627 | 136 | 275 | 28 | 6 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 476 | 427 | 99 | 24 | 4 | 13 | 37 | 115 | 9 | 11 | 2 | 232 | 308 | 398 | 706 | 166 | 281 | 24 | 8 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB MLE | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 278 | 248 | 59 | 8 | 2 | 11 | 25 | 65 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 238 | 318 | 419 | 737 | 181 | 285 | 23 | 9 | 329 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB MLE | TB | 100% | 328 | 293 | 72 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 28 | 77 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 247 | 321 | 416 | 737 | 169 | 295 | 23 | 9 | 327 | 107 | +3 | +1 | +1 | -4 | +7 | 0.8 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB CTX | TB | 100% | 217 | 193 | 48 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 51 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 249 | 322 | 415 | 737 | 166 | 298 | 24 | 9 | 327 | 107 | +2 | +1 | +1 | -2 | +5 | 0.6 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 29 | MLB MLE | TB | 92% | 234 | 209 | 51 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 20 | 55 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 244 | 318 | 409 | 727 | 165 | 293 | 24 | 9 | 323 | 105 | +1 | +1 | -0 | -3 | +5 | 0.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB CTX | TB | 92% | 215 | 193 | 47 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 51 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 246 | 319 | 408 | 727 | 162 | 296 | 24 | 8 | 323 | 105 | +1 | +1 | -0 | -2 | +5 | 0.4 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 557 | 496 | 116 | 16 | 3 | 19 | 48 | 133 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 234 | 308 | 393 | 701 | 159 | 278 | 24 | 9 | 312 | 83 | -2 | +1 | +0 | -16 | +12 | -0.5 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 579 | 136 | 19 | 4 | 22 | 56 | 155 | 6 | 12 | 4 | 235 | 309 | 396 | 705 | 161 | 279 | 24 | 9 | 312 | 83 | -2 | +1 | +0 | -18 | +14 | -0.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4511 | 4050 | 959 | 169 | 35 | 82 | 338 | 1109 | 51 | 129 | 54 | 237 | 304 | 357 | 660 | 120 | 302 | 25 | 7 | 291 | 83 | -0 | +2 | +1 | -18 | +17 | 0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 584 | 138 | 24 | 5 | 12 | 49 | 160 | 7 | 19 | 8 | 236 | 303 | 356 | 659 | 120 | 301 | 25 | 8 | 291 | 83 | -0 | +2 | +1 | -15 | +14 | 0.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAALouisville Bats · 461 PAwOBA .382 → .315 (−67)K% 19.3% → 23.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.31% | ÷0.975 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.85% | ÷1.002 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 7.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.95% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.87% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.10% | ÷1.049 | ×0.930 | ×0.972 | ×1.018 | 18.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.42% | ÷0.992 | ×0.830 | ×0.972 | ×1.018 | 7.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.30% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.972 | ×1.018 | 1.39% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.52% | ÷0.901 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 4.36% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 110, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 95, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.
Result: wOBA .382 → .315; ISO .222 → .183; BABIP .332 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 442 PAwOBA .345 → .282 (−63)K% 24.4% → 28.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.43% | ÷1.022 | ×1.200 | — | — | 28.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.37% | ÷1.016 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 5.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.13% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.10% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.65% | ÷1.117 | ×0.930 | ×0.961 | ×1.033 | 20.38% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.45% | ÷1.049 | ×0.830 | ×0.961 | ×1.033 | 6.64% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.70% | ÷1.070 | ×0.970 | ×0.961 | ×1.033 | 0.63% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.58% | ÷0.792 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 4.18% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 58, 1B 123, 2B 110, 3B 114, K 104, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.
Result: wOBA .345 → .282; ISO .171 → .148; BABIP .347 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 511 PAwOBA .336 → .280 (−56)K% 24.9% → 30.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.85% | ÷0.967 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.52% | ÷1.056 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 8.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.17% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 1.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.48% | ÷1.004 | ×0.930 | ×0.998 | ×1.048 | 26.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.35% | ÷1.013 | ×0.830 | ×0.998 | ×1.048 | 6.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.28% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.998 | ×1.048 | 1.13% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.92% | ÷1.095 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 1.28% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 101, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 93, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.
Result: wOBA .336 → .280; ISO .111 → .086; BABIP .367 → .344. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 430 PAwOBA .314 → .274 (−39)K% 16.0% → 19.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.05% | ÷0.995 | ×1.200 | — | — | 19.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.09% | ÷0.945 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 9.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.93% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.92% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.67% | ÷1.047 | ×0.930 | ×1.021 | ×1.050 | 21.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.038 | ×0.830 | ×1.021 | ×1.050 | 4.28% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.33% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.021 | ×1.050 | 1.21% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.67% | ÷1.061 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 1.15% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 109, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 99, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.
Result: wOBA .314 → .274; ISO .103 → .083; BABIP .291 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 518 PAwOBA .327 → .276 (−51)K% 17.8% → 22.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.76% | ÷0.958 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.14% | ÷1.032 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 5.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.77% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.76% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.73% | ÷1.110 | ×0.930 | ×1.028 | ×1.050 | 22.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.45% | ÷0.988 | ×0.830 | ×1.028 | ×1.050 | 6.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.33% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×1.028 | ×1.050 | 1.15% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.86% | ÷1.172 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 1.17% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 134, 1B 122, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 92, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.
Result: wOBA .327 → .276; ISO .126 → .100; BABIP .336 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Lancaster JetHawks · 587 PAwOBA .360 → .285 (−75)K% 16.2% → 22.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.18% | ÷0.950 | ×1.340 | — | — | 22.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.54% | ÷0.935 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.042 | 7.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.51% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.042 | 0.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.36% | ÷1.079 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 21.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.52% | ÷1.001 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 5.29% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.42% | ÷1.065 | ×0.760 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 1.71% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.90% | ÷1.278 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.042 | 2.17% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 156, 1B 116, 2B 100, 3B 113, K 90, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .360 → .285; ISO .163 → .121; BABIP .342 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAsheville Tourists · 533 PAwOBA .313 → .283 (−30)K% 18.0% → 24.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.01% | ÷0.997 | ×1.340 | — | — | 24.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.01% | ÷0.970 | ×0.660 | — | ×1.045 | 6.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.69% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.045 | 1.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.59% | ÷0.991 | ×0.920 | ×1.040 | ×1.045 | 26.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.54% | ÷1.110 | ×0.820 | ×1.040 | ×1.045 | 4.45% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.11% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×1.040 | ×1.045 | 1.26% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.39% | ÷1.111 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.045 | 1.07% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 98, 2B 122, 3B 80, K 99, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.040.
Result: wOBA .313 → .283; ISO .094 → .081; BABIP .333 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 ROKGrand Junction Rockies · 146 PAwOBA .408 → .300 (−108)K% 21.2% → 30.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.23% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 30.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.49% | ÷1.000 | ×0.610 | — | ×1.022 | 11.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.68% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 0.50% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.23% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.012 | ×1.022 | 25.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.49% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.012 | ×1.022 | 2.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.012 | ×1.022 | 1.73% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.81% | ÷1.000 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.022 | 4.46% |
Factors used: league row PIO. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .408 → .300; ISO .188 → .139; BABIP .378 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .