Abner Uribe — OGILVIE

Abner Uribe P Milwaukee Brewers

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 1.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION55 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8274vR 66

ERA2.98

FIP2.87

K%29.1%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%20.1%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$19M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL4040

CMD5555

K†7070

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.9

Whiff%

p5926.7%

p7226.2%

xwOBA vs

p900.261

SL+1.6 (38%)

SI (62%)

FB (62%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2023

Service 1.703 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.5M	+$0.4M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$8M	+$7M
2028	Arb-1	$2M	+1.0	$7M	+$5M
2029	Arb-2	$3M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.8M
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$6M		$18M	+$14M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers	12	0	19	76	21	10	0	0%	1.6	18.8%	16.4%	2.3%	0.0%	3.32	3.60	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers	12	0	19	76	21	10	0	0%	1.6	27.6%	13.2%	14.5%	0.0%	3.32	2.47	—
2019	19	ROK MLE	AZL Brewers Blue	3	2	2	13	2	4	0	67%	0.8	15.4%	30.8%	-15.4%	0.0%	15.43	5.70	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	AZL Brewers Blue	3	2	2	13	2	4	0	67%	0.8	15.4%	30.8%	-15.4%	0.0%	15.43	6.53	—
2021	21	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	17	4	34	150	52	25	2	24%	2.0	25.7%	19.7%	6.0%	1.8%	4.01	4.40	—
2021	21	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	17	4	34	150	52	25	2	24%	2.0	34.7%	16.7%	18.0%	1.3%	4.01	3.01	—
2022	22	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	2	0	3	15	4	4	0	0%	1.5	26.7%	26.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.23	—
2022	22	AA RAW	Biloxi Shuckers	2	0	3	15	4	4	0	0%	1.5	26.7%	26.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.43	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	54	0	54	224	80	36	1	0%	1.0	32.8%	15.9%	16.9%	0.6%	1.84	2.68	+1.2
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	54	0	54	224	80	36	1	0%	1.0	32.8%	15.9%	16.9%	0.6%	1.84	2.68	+1.2
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	54	0	54	224	80	36	1	0%	1.0	35.7%	16.1%	19.6%	0.4%	1.84	2.37	+1.4
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	0	23	104	21	17	1	0%	1.1	21.2%	15.2%	6.1%	1.4%	4.70	4.02	+0.1
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	0	23	104	21	17	1	0%	1.1	21.2%	15.2%	6.1%	1.4%	4.70	4.02	+0.1
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	0	23	104	21	17	1	0%	1.1	20.2%	16.3%	3.8%	1.0%	4.70	4.06	+0.1
2025	25	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	75	0	75	298	90	25	4	0%	1.0	30.2%	8.4%	21.8%	1.3%	1.67	2.31	+2.0
2025	25	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	75	0	75	298	90	25	4	0%	1.0	30.2%	8.4%	21.8%	1.3%	1.67	2.31	+2.0
2025	25	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	75	0	75	298	90	25	4	0%	1.0	30.2%	8.4%	21.8%	1.3%	1.67	2.40	+1.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			176	0	174	701	198	72	8	0%	1.0	28.2%	10.3%	18.0%	1.1%	2.23	2.66	+3.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	57	0	55	217	58	18	3	0%	1.0	26.2%	8.1%	18.1%	1.4%	1.95	2.66	+1.3
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	57	0	55	217	58	18	3	0%	1.0	26.2%	8.1%	18.1%	1.4%	1.95	2.66	+1.3
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	A+ RAW	MIL	2	0	2	7	3	1	0	0%	1.0	42.9%	14.3%	28.6%	0.0%	0.00	1.29	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	MIL	55	0	53	210	55	17	3	0%	1.0	26.2%	8.1%	18.1%	1.4%	2.02	2.70	+1.2
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	MIL	55	0	53	210	55	17	3	0%	1.0	26.2%	8.1%	18.1%	1.4%	2.02	2.70	+1.2
ROS	26	MLB MLE	MIL	6	0	6	25	7	2	0	0%	1.0	29.1%	9.0%	20.1%	2.0%	2.98	2.87	+0.1
ROS	26	MLB CTX	MIL	6	0	6	25	7	2	1	0%	1.0	29.1%	9.0%	20.1%	2.1%	3.04	2.93	+0.1
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	MIL	—	—	61	242	65	20	3	—	—	27.0%	8.4%	18.6%	1.4%	2.05	2.68	+1.5
FULL	26	MLB A+C	MIL	—	—	59	250	65	20	4	—	—	26.1%	8.1%	18.0%	1.4%	2.12	2.69	+1.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	MIL	66	0	69	291	87	26	6	0%	1.0	29.8%	9.1%	20.7%	1.9%	3.20	3.17	+1.2
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIL	64	0	67	282	84	26	6	0%	1.0	29.7%	9.2%	20.5%	2.0%	3.23	3.25	+1.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	MIL	61	0	64	269	78	25	6	0%	1.0	29.1%	9.4%	19.6%	2.2%	3.34	3.41	+0.9
2027	27	MLB CTX	MIL	62	0	65	274	82	25	6	0%	1.0	29.8%	9.1%	20.7%	2.0%	3.25	3.22	+1.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIL	60	0	63	266	79	25	6	0%	1.1	29.7%	9.2%	20.5%	2.1%	3.29	3.31	+1.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	MIL	58	0	61	258	75	24	6	0%	1.1	29.1%	9.4%	19.6%	2.3%	3.40	3.47	+0.9
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		362	0	369	1526	442	148	26	0%	1.0	28.9%	9.7%	19.2%	1.7%	2.80	2.81	+7.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		196	0	200	827	240	80	14	0%	1.0	28.9%	9.7%	19.2%	1.7%	2.80	2.81	+4.2
Career	—	MLE		241	6	265	1097	301	144	12	2%	1.1	27.5%	13.1%	14.3%	1.1%	2.54	3.06	+7.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		182	5	200	827	227	109	9	2%	1.1	27.5%	13.1%	14.3%	1.1%	2.54	3.06	+3.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Abner Uribe (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.09	32.3%	9.6%	2.1%	—	3.27	29.5%	20.3%	200	+0.18	—	—	—
Ken Giles R 2017 · 2.25 FIP	26	SU	2.25	33.6%	8.5%	1.7%	.288	2.48	32.6%	27.1%	103	+0.23	1.96	368	81
Arquimedes Caminero R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	28	SU	3.54	23.0%	8.5%	2.4%	.265	4.45	17.9%	6.5%	61	+0.91	3.54	173	75
Alex Lange R 2022 · 3.00 FIP	26	SU	3.00	30.3%	11.1%	1.9%	.273	3.88	26.1%	10.7%	108	+0.88	3.00	508	75
Arodys Vizcaíno R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	26	SU	3.51	27.2%	8.5%	3.0%	.243	3.47	25.3%	16.4%	38	-0.04	2.28	183	74
Daniel Hudson R 2015 · 3.35 FIP	28	SU	3.35	24.5%	7.9%	2.4%	.302	3.78	22.8%	13.6%	168	+0.43	1.68	468	73
José Ramírez R 2016 · 3.36 FIP	26	SU	3.36	23.0%	10.4%	1.6%	.274	4.56	21.7%	10.8%	62	+1.20	3.36	206	73
Lou Trivino R 2018 · 3.54 FIP	26	SU	3.54	27.4%	9.0%	2.9%	.247	3.90	22.4%	11.8%	157	+0.36	2.39	593	73
Dellin Betances R 2015 · 2.15 FIP	27	SU	2.15	39.5%	11.4%	1.7%	.248	2.02	41.0%	29.6%	199	-0.13	1.59	308	73
Tucker Healy R 2016 · 2.82 FIP	26	SU	2.82	30.4%	10.5%	1.8%	.294	4.64	16.9%	5.8%	67	+1.82	2.82	174	73
Scott Oberg R 2016 · 3.19 FIP	26	SU	3.19	22.9%	9.1%	1.6%	.260	2.92	23.8%	16.4%	188	-0.27	2.54	302	73
Reyes Moronta R 2019 · 3.31 FIP	26	SU	3.31	28.5%	13.0%	1.8%	.264	5.16	21.5%	5.3%	56	+1.85	3.06	361	73
Jeurys Familia R 2016 · 2.05 FIP	26	SU	2.05	26.2%	7.8%	0.3%	.294	3.29	25.0%	13.9%	157	+1.24	2.05	455	73
Brandon Maurer R 2016 · 3.08 FIP	26	SU	3.08	24.0%	6.0%	2.3%	.286	4.32	21.0%	11.4%	114	+1.24	3.08	234	73
Ben Heller R 2017 · 2.86 FIP	25	SU	2.86	32.4%	9.4%	2.4%	.243	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	246	72
Ryne Stanek R 2017 · 3.05 FIP	26	SU	3.05	30.4%	10.0%	2.3%	.311	3.83	28.9%	18.4%	143	+0.78	2.96	767	72
Mychal Givens R 2016 · 2.84 FIP	26	SU	2.84	30.7%	10.9%	1.7%	.299	3.27	28.3%	20.0%	218	+0.43	1.77	526	72
Shane Smith R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	23	SU	3.52	28.1%	10.4%	2.7%	.259	3.59	22.9%	13.1%	284	+0.07	3.01	342	72
Jon Edwards R 2015 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	31.7%	13.1%	2.4%	.264	2.40	30.3%	22.6%	30	-1.00	2.40	132	72
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	72
Blake Wood R 2015 · 2.92 FIP	29	SU	2.92	24.5%	10.5%	1.0%	.325	3.60	24.9%	14.9%	151	+0.68	2.92	210	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	67	30.3%	9.3%	0.79	3.24
Keone Kela ('19)	1.1	43	30.1%	9.4%	0.92	3.23
Diego Castillo ('22)	1.3	52	28.1%	8.9%	1.07	3.12
Felipe Vázquez ('19)	1.7	66	29.8%	7.5%	0.60	2.61
Corey Knebel ('22)	1.4	47	32.3%	11.2%	0.95	3.04
Ryan Buchter ('19)	1.1	53	26.7%	10.8%	1.10	2.87
Carl Edwards Jr. ('23)	1.2	50	28.7%	12.4%	0.76	3.05