Abner Uribe

P Milwaukee Brewers

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 1.0 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	21	23	4.70	4.06	20.2%	16.3%	0.1	K 21.2% · BB 15.2% · FIP 4.02
2025	25	MLBMIL	75	75	1.67	2.40	30.2%	8.4%	1.9
2026	26	MIX2 levels	63	61	1.91	2.50	27.0%	7.5%	1.5	K 26.5% · BB 7.3% · FIP 2.45
2027PROJ	27	MLBMIL	59	62	3.08	3.01	30.2%	8.0%	1.2
2028PROJ95% MLB	28	MLBMIL	50	53	3.15	3.16	30.1%	8.2%	1.0
2029PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBMIL	45	47	3.25	3.32	29.5%	8.4%	0.8

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.703First FA2031

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Arb-1$3M2029Arb-2$4M2030Ext$8M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

xwOBA vs90

K%73

Form1.08 ERA (proj 3.08) · K 31.8% (proj 30.2%) · BB 6.1% (proj 8.0%) ▲ last 90d · 17 IP through Oct 27

CompsNate Jones (age 27) · Raisel Iglesias (age 27) · Dellin Betances (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8375vR 67

ERA3.08

FIP3.01

K%30.2%

BB%8.0%

K-BB%22.2%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$17M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL4040

CMD5555

K†7070

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.9

Whiff%

p6026.8%

p7326.5%

xwOBA vs

p900.260

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.703 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$10M	+$9M
2028	Arb-1	$3M	+1.0	$7M	+$5M
2029	Arb-2	$4M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$20M	+$14M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers	12	0	19	76	21	10	0	0%	1.6	18.8%	16.4%	2.3%	0.0%	3.32	3.60	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers	12	0	19	76	21	10	0	0%	1.6	27.6%	13.2%	14.5%	0.0%	3.32	2.47	—
2019	19	ROK MLE	AZL Brewers Blue	3	2	2	13	2	4	0	67%	0.8	15.4%	30.8%	-15.4%	0.0%	15.43	5.70	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	AZL Brewers Blue	3	2	2	13	2	4	0	67%	0.8	15.4%	30.8%	-15.4%	0.0%	15.43	6.53	—
2021	21	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	17	4	34	150	52	25	2	24%	2.0	25.7%	19.7%	6.0%	1.8%	4.01	4.40	—
2021	21	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	17	4	34	150	52	25	2	24%	2.0	34.7%	16.7%	18.0%	1.3%	4.01	3.01	—
2022	22	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	2	0	3	15	4	4	0	0%	1.5	26.7%	26.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.23	—
2022	22	AA RAW	Biloxi Shuckers	2	0	3	15	4	4	0	0%	1.5	26.7%	26.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.43	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	54	0	54	224	80	36	1	0%	1.0	32.8%	15.9%	16.9%	0.6%	1.84	2.68	+1.2
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	54	0	54	224	80	36	1	0%	1.0	35.7%	16.1%	19.6%	0.4%	1.84	2.37	+1.4
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	0	23	104	21	17	1	0%	1.1	21.2%	15.2%	6.1%	1.4%	4.70	4.02	+0.1
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	0	23	104	21	17	1	0%	1.1	21.2%	15.2%	6.1%	1.4%	4.70	4.02	+0.1
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	0	23	104	21	17	1	0%	1.1	20.2%	16.3%	3.8%	1.0%	4.70	4.06	+0.1
2025	25	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	75	0	75	298	90	25	4	0%	1.0	30.2%	8.4%	21.8%	1.3%	1.67	2.31	+2.0
2025	25	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	75	0	75	298	90	25	4	0%	1.0	30.2%	8.4%	21.8%	1.3%	1.67	2.31	+2.0
2025	25	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	75	0	75	298	90	25	4	0%	1.0	30.2%	8.4%	21.8%	1.3%	1.67	2.40	+1.9
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	61	241	65	18	3	0%	1.0	26.5%	7.3%	19.2%	1.2%	1.91	2.45	+1.5
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	61	241	65	18	3	0%	1.0	26.5%	7.3%	19.2%	1.2%	1.91	2.45	+1.5
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	63	0	61	241	65	18	3	0%	1.0	27.0%	7.5%	19.5%	1.2%	1.91	2.50	+1.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			182	0	180	725	205	72	8	0%	1.0	28.3%	9.9%	18.3%	1.1%	2.20	2.60	+4.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	MIL	59	0	62	262	79	21	5	0%	1.1	30.2%	8.0%	22.2%	1.9%	3.08	3.01	+1.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIL	53	0	55	234	70	19	5	0%	1.0	30.1%	8.2%	21.9%	2.0%	3.09	3.10	+1.0
2029	29	MLB MLE	MIL	47	0	49	208	61	17	5	0%	1.0	29.5%	8.4%	21.1%	2.2%	3.19	3.26	+0.8
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIL	50	0	53	224	67	18	5	0%	1.1	30.1%	8.2%	21.9%	2.1%	3.15	3.16	+1.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	MIL	45	0	47	198	59	17	5	0%	1.0	29.5%	8.4%	21.1%	2.3%	3.25	3.32	+0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		277	0	279	1145	330	107	17	0%	1.0	28.9%	9.3%	19.5%	1.5%	2.56	2.68	+6.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		198	0	200	820	237	77	12	0%	1.0	28.9%	9.3%	19.5%	1.5%	2.56	2.68	+4.5
Career	—	MLE		247	6	271	1121	308	144	12	2%	1.1	27.5%	12.8%	14.7%	1.1%	2.52	3.01	+5.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		182	4	200	826	227	106	9	2%	1.1	27.5%	12.8%	14.7%	1.1%	2.52	3.01	+4.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAANashville Sounds · 9 IPFIP 3.88 → 3.86 (−0.02)K% 18.4% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.42%	—	×0.860	15.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.42%	—	×0.900	16.58%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.909	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 3.88 → 3.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AABiloxi Shuckers · 15 IPFIP 1.99 → 3.04 (+1.05)K% 45.9% → 37.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	45.90%	—	×0.810	37.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.75%	—	×1.100	16.23%
HR / BF /BF	1.64%	÷1.055	×1.200	1.86%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 111).

Result: FIP 1.99 → 3.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAANashville Sounds · 8 IPFIP 2.51 → 2.69 (+0.18)K% 36.1% → 31.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.11%	—	×0.860	31.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.44%	—	×0.900	17.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.905	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.51 → 2.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ACarolina Mudcats · 34 IPFIP 3.02 → 4.40 (+1.39)K% 34.7% → 25.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.67%	—	×0.740	25.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.67%	—	×1.180	19.67%
HR / BF /BF	1.33%	÷0.974	×1.300	1.78%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 3.02 → 4.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ROKDSL Brewers · 19 IPFIP 2.43 → 3.60 (+1.16)K% 27.6% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.63%	—	×0.680	18.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.16%	—	×1.250	16.45%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.43 → 3.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Abner Uribe (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.01	30.2%	8.0%	1.9%	—	3.18	29.8%	21.6%	105	+0.17	—	—	—
Nate Jones R 2013 · 2.58 FIP	27	SU	2.58	28.3%	7.9%	1.6%	.327	3.03	31.0%	25.7%	90	+0.45	2.57	307	79
Raisel Iglesias R 2017 · 2.47 FIP	27	SU	2.47	30.1%	8.5%	1.5%	.284	3.30	30.3%	23.6%	162	+0.83	1.34	825	77
Dellin Betances R 2015 · 2.15 FIP	27	SU	2.15	39.5%	11.4%	1.7%	.248	2.02	41.0%	29.6%	199	-0.13	1.21	398	76
Jumbo Diaz R 2014 · 2.87 FIP	30	SU	2.87	26.1%	7.0%	2.0%	.283	3.64	23.0%	15.0%	186	+0.77	2.80	319	74
Brian Wilson R 2009 · 2.29 FIP	27	SU	2.29	27.4%	7.6%	1.0%	.294	2.56	26.6%	17.3%	130	+0.27	2.00	366	72
Trevor Rosenthal R 2017 · 2.05 FIP	27	SU	2.05	37.6%	9.9%	1.6%	.330	3.21	33.2%	15.9%	39	+1.16	1.74	364	72
Mychal Givens R 2017 · 3.28 FIP	27	SU	3.28	27.9%	7.6%	2.9%	.244	3.48	28.4%	19.3%	162	+0.20	1.77	526	71
Justin Grimm R 2016 · 3.11 FIP	27	SU	3.11	28.9%	9.3%	2.3%	.313	4.33	25.2%	13.4%	170	+1.22	2.81	516	71
Jordan Jankowski R 2016 · 2.95 FIP	27	SU	2.95	30.3%	9.8%	2.1%	.296	4.23	23.4%	8.8%	62	+1.28	2.57	196	71
Drew Steckenrider R 2018 · 3.31 FIP	27	SU	3.31	27.2%	8.1%	2.7%	.284	3.92	22.1%	16.0%	82	+0.61	2.61	392	70
Danny Farquhar R 2014 · 2.63 FIP	27	SU	2.63	27.9%	7.2%	1.8%	.290	3.84	22.1%	13.9%	224	+1.21	1.67	351	70
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	70
Ben Heller R 2017 · 2.86 FIP	25	SU	2.86	32.4%	9.4%	2.4%	.243	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	246	70
Trevor Stephan R 2023 · 3.15 FIP	27	SU	3.15	25.5%	8.5%	2.1%	.303	7.09	15.9%	4.0%	40	+3.94	1.88	440	70
Matt Bush R 2016 · 2.87 FIP	30	SU	2.87	24.7%	6.0%	2.0%	.232	3.94	22.2%	12.7%	75	+1.07	2.87	249	69
Michael Tonkin R 2017 · 3.32 FIP	27	SU	3.32	29.2%	9.6%	2.7%	.309	6.30	21.8%	8.3%	22	+2.98	2.31	499	69
Connor Brogdon R 2022 · 3.23 FIP	27	SU	3.23	26.6%	5.9%	3.0%	.314	4.84	23.5%	14.7%	139	+1.61	2.98	402	69
Jason Stoffel R 2016 · 3.49 FIP	27	SU	3.49	27.2%	8.0%	3.0%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.49	103	69
A.J. Cole R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	27	SU	3.66	26.8%	7.3%	3.5%	.315	3.99	21.1%	13.7%	23	+0.33	3.66	529	68
Héctor Neris R 2016 · 2.92 FIP	27	SU	2.92	31.1%	8.2%	2.6%	.263	3.16	32.0%	24.1%	209	+0.24	2.03	682	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	58	29.1%	9.5%	0.61	2.64
Jordan Walden ('15)	1.1	56	28.6%	10.3%	0.53	3.00
Greg Holland ('22)	2.7	55	29.8%	10.6%	0.71	3.14
Felipe Vázquez ('19)	1.7	66	29.8%	7.5%	0.60	2.61
Mike Schooler ('88-'93, 5 WAR*)	1.5	49	26.9%*	8.0%*	0.96*	3.68*
Mike Henneman ('87-'96, 13 WAR*)	3.7	73	22.6%*	8.3%*	0.70*	3.25*
Randy Myers ('85-'98, 16 WAR*)	4.4	74	29.4%*	10.4%*	0.92*	3.47*