Trevor Stephan — OGILVIE

Trevor Stephan P Columbus Clippers

Age 30 RHP 6'5" / 225 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 58 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.45

FIP4.66

K%24.3%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%15.1%

ROS IP58

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6565

CTRL4545

CMD6060

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5594.9

Whiff%

p8430.6%

p6825.5%

xwOBA vs

p390.325

FB+2.9

SL-1.6

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	21	ROK MLE	GCL Yankees East	1	1	2	6	1	0	0	100%	2.0	16.7%	0.0%	16.7%	0.0%	0.00	1.69	—
2017	21	ROK RAW	GCL Yankees East	1	1	2	6	1	0	0	100%	2.0	16.7%	0.0%	16.7%	0.0%	0.00	2.10	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	124	523	140	38	10	100%	5.2	21.3%	8.1%	13.2%	2.1%	3.69	3.48	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	124	523	140	38	10	100%	5.2	26.8%	7.3%	19.5%	1.9%	3.69	2.81	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	19	80	354	91	29	5	95%	4.0	20.4%	9.1%	11.4%	1.8%	4.72	3.51	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	19	80	354	91	29	5	95%	4.0	25.7%	8.2%	17.5%	1.4%	4.72	2.73	—
2021	25	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	43	0	63	282	75	30	15	0%	1.5	26.6%	10.6%	16.0%	5.3%	4.41	5.13	-0.4
2021	25	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	43	0	63	282	75	30	15	0%	1.5	26.6%	10.6%	16.0%	5.3%	4.41	5.23	-0.5
2022	26	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	66	0	64	267	82	16	3	0%	1.0	30.7%	6.0%	24.7%	1.1%	2.69	1.88	+2.0
2022	26	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	66	0	64	267	82	16	3	0%	1.0	30.7%	6.0%	24.7%	1.1%	2.69	1.89	+2.0
2023	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	71	0	69	294	75	25	6	0%	1.0	25.5%	8.5%	17.0%	2.0%	4.06	3.15	+1.1
2023	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	71	0	69	294	75	25	6	0%	1.0	25.5%	8.5%	17.0%	2.0%	4.06	3.15	+1.1
2023	27	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	71	0	69	294	75	25	6	0%	1.0	25.5%	8.5%	17.0%	2.0%	4.06	3.14	+1.2
2025	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	2	24	116	25	11	8	8%	0.9	14.8%	11.0%	3.8%	8.9%	9.51	8.16	—
2025	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	2	24	116	25	11	8	8%	0.9	14.8%	11.0%	3.8%	8.9%	9.51	8.16	—
2025	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	2	24	116	25	11	8	8%	0.9	21.6%	9.5%	12.1%	6.9%	9.51	6.78	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			180	0	196	843	232	71	24	0%	1.1	27.5%	8.4%	19.1%	2.8%	3.73	3.41	+2.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	22	0	23	113	24	15	5	0%	1.0	15.8%	12.9%	3.0%	4.2%	8.22	5.69	—
YTD	30	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	22	0	23	113	24	15	5	0%	1.0	15.8%	12.9%	3.0%	4.2%	8.22	5.69	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	ROK RAW	CLE	2	0	2	8	4	0	1	0%	1.1	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	12.5%	3.86	5.74	—
2026	30	AAA RAW	CLE	20	0	21	105	20	15	4	0%	1.0	19.0%	14.3%	4.8%	3.8%	8.71	5.39	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	CLE	52	0	54	229	54	22	9	0%	1.0	23.6%	9.6%	14.0%	4.0%	4.72	4.90	-0.2
2028	32	MLB MLE	CLE	48	0	50	212	48	21	9	0%	1.0	22.8%	10.0%	12.8%	4.2%	4.98	5.15	-0.3
2027	31	MLB CTX	CLE	19	0	20	84	20	8	3	0%	1.1	23.6%	9.6%	14.0%	4.0%	4.72	4.90	-0.1
2028	32	MLB CTX	CLE	27	0	28	118	27	12	5	0%	1.0	22.8%	10.0%	12.8%	4.2%	4.98	5.15	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		225	0	243	1044	278	91	32	0%	1.1	26.7%	8.7%	18.0%	3.1%	3.95	3.65	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		185	0	200	858	229	75	26	0%	1.1	26.7%	8.7%	18.0%	3.1%	3.95	3.65	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		272	46	449	1955	452	173	57	17%	1.6	23.1%	8.8%	14.3%	2.9%	4.41	3.85	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		121	21	200	871	201	77	25	17%	1.6	23.1%	8.8%	14.3%	2.9%	4.41	3.85	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trevor Stephan (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.66	24.3%	9.2%	3.8%	—	5.02	23.2%	13.4%	104	+0.36	—	—	—
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	81
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	79
Daniel Hudson R 2017 · 4.07 FIP	30	SU	4.07	24.4%	11.8%	2.8%	.301	4.01	24.1%	15.2%	140	-0.06	1.68	468	78
David Hernandez R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	30	SU	4.40	22.9%	7.6%	4.1%	.287	3.17	24.9%	18.4%	192	-1.23	2.60	268	78
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	76
Blake Wood R 2016 · 3.76 FIP	30	SU	3.76	24.5%	10.6%	2.5%	.307	3.44	25.3%	16.0%	74	-0.32	2.92	210	76
Alexi Ogando R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	31	SU	5.11	19.1%	9.4%	4.4%	.253	3.95	17.2%	8.0%	67	-1.16	3.79	132	76
Erik Davis R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	.349	3.52	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.73	3.05	227	75
Joakim Soria R 2015 · 3.70 FIP	31	SU	3.70	23.5%	6.6%	3.2%	.258	2.91	26.6%	18.9%	183	-0.79	2.01	380	75
Jhan Mariñez R 2018 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	21.2%	7.9%	3.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	253	75
Shintaro Fujinami R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	23.2%	12.3%	2.5%	.290	4.55	21.2%	-0.6%	51	+0.46	4.09	130	74
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	74
Rob Wooten R 2015 · 4.86 FIP	30	SU	4.86	19.3%	5.5%	4.9%	.299	3.87	17.7%	14.4%	111	-0.99	3.19	191	74
Ryan Tepera R 2018 · 3.90 FIP	30	SU	3.90	25.9%	8.7%	3.4%	.282	3.20	28.4%	19.9%	104	-0.70	2.35	445	73
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	72
Kevin Jepsen R 2015 · 3.47 FIP	31	SU	3.47	20.7%	9.1%	1.8%	.241	5.85	16.9%	7.2%	90	+2.38	3.47	160	72
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	72
Blake Smith R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	28	SU	3.59	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	124	72
Tommy Nance R 2021 · 3.96 FIP	30	SU	3.96	24.9%	8.8%	3.4%	.228	3.43	23.9%	16.6%	99	-0.53	2.12	354	72
Rubby De La Rosa R 2019 · 4.21 FIP	30	SU	4.21	27.7%	8.0%	4.4%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	4.04	281	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	54	23.6%	9.6%	1.55	4.70
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63