Trevor Stephan

P Columbus Clippers

Age 31 RHP 6'5" / 225 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	27	MLBCLE	71	0	69	4.06	3.14	25.5%	8.5%	1.2
2025	29	MIX3 levels	25	2	24	9.51	6.78	21.6%	9.5%	—	K 15.3% · BB 11.0% · FIP 8.11
2026	30	MIX2 levels	24	0	25	10.44	6.62	20.9%	13.2%	—	K 16.3% · BB 12.6% · FIP 6.32
2027PROJ	31	MLBCLE	13	0	14	5.44	5.26	20.6%	11.2%	-0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	32	MLBCLE	36	0	38	5.49	5.52	19.8%	11.6%	-0.4
2029PROJ55% MLB	33	MLBCLE	43	0	45	5.67	5.80	18.9%	12.0%	-0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.2 · Next 3 projected WAR -1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023

K%68

FB Velo55

xwOBA vs39

CompsSpencer Bivens (age 30) · Grant Black (age 29) · Felipe Arredondo (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA5.44

FIP5.26

K%20.6%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%9.4%

Proj IP144

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 144 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6565

CTRL4545

CMD6060

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5594.9

Whiff%

p8430.6%

p6825.5%

xwOBA vs

p390.325

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	21	ROK MLE	GCL Yankees East	1	1	2	6	1	0	0	100%	2.0	16.7%	0.0%	16.7%	0.0%	0.00	1.69	—
2017	21	ROK RAW	GCL Yankees East	1	1	2	6	1	0	0	100%	2.0	16.7%	0.0%	16.7%	0.0%	0.00	2.10	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	124	523	140	38	10	100%	5.2	21.3%	8.1%	13.2%	2.1%	3.69	3.48	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	124	523	140	38	10	100%	5.2	26.8%	7.3%	19.5%	1.9%	3.69	2.81	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	19	80	354	91	29	5	95%	4.0	20.4%	9.1%	11.4%	1.8%	4.72	3.51	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	19	80	354	91	29	5	95%	4.0	25.7%	8.2%	17.5%	1.4%	4.72	2.73	—
2021	25	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	43	0	63	282	75	30	15	0%	1.5	26.6%	10.6%	16.0%	5.3%	4.41	5.13	-0.4
2021	25	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	43	0	63	282	75	30	15	0%	1.5	26.6%	10.6%	16.0%	5.3%	4.41	5.23	-0.5
2022	26	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	66	0	64	267	82	16	3	0%	1.0	30.7%	6.0%	24.7%	1.1%	2.69	1.88	+2.0
2022	26	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	66	0	64	267	82	16	3	0%	1.0	30.7%	6.0%	24.7%	1.1%	2.69	1.89	+2.0
2023	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	71	0	69	294	75	25	6	0%	1.0	25.5%	8.5%	17.0%	2.0%	4.06	3.15	+1.1
2023	27	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	71	0	69	294	75	25	6	0%	1.0	25.5%	8.5%	17.0%	2.0%	4.06	3.14	+1.2
2025	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	2	24	116	25	11	8	8%	0.9	15.3%	11.0%	4.3%	8.9%	9.51	8.11	—
2025	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	2	24	116	25	11	8	8%	0.9	15.3%	11.0%	4.3%	8.9%	9.51	8.11	—
2025	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	2	24	116	25	11	8	8%	0.9	21.6%	9.5%	12.1%	6.9%	9.51	6.78	—
2026	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	0	25	129	27	17	7	0%	1.0	16.3%	12.6%	3.7%	5.5%	10.44	6.32	—
2026	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	0	25	129	27	17	7	0%	1.0	16.3%	12.6%	3.7%	5.5%	10.44	6.32	—
2026	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	0	25	129	27	17	7	0%	1.0	20.9%	13.2%	7.8%	5.4%	10.44	6.62	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			180	0	196	843	232	71	24	0%	1.1	27.5%	8.4%	19.1%	2.8%	3.73	3.41	+2.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	CLE	13	0	14	59	12	7	2	0%	1.1	20.6%	11.2%	9.4%	3.8%	5.44	5.26	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	CLE	99	0	104	438	87	51	18	0%	1.0	19.8%	11.6%	8.2%	4.1%	5.49	5.52	-1.1
2029	33	MLB MLE	CLE	78	0	82	345	65	41	15	0%	1.0	18.9%	12.0%	6.9%	4.4%	5.67	5.80	-1.1
2028	32	MLB CTX	CLE	36	0	38	160	32	19	7	0%	1.1	19.8%	11.6%	8.2%	4.1%	5.49	5.52	-0.4
2029	33	MLB CTX	CLE	43	0	45	190	36	23	8	0%	1.0	18.9%	12.0%	6.9%	4.4%	5.67	5.80	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		259	0	279	1194	300	113	39	0%	1.1	25.1%	9.4%	15.7%	3.3%	4.28	3.96	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		186	0	200	857	215	81	28	0%	1.1	25.1%	9.4%	15.7%	3.3%	4.28	3.96	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		274	46	451	1971	456	174	59	17%	1.6	23.1%	8.9%	14.3%	3.0%	4.55	3.91	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		122	20	200	875	202	77	26	17%	1.6	23.1%	8.9%	14.3%	3.0%	4.55	3.91	+0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAColumbus Clippers · 23 IPFIP 6.00 → 6.32 (+0.32)K% 19.0% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.01%	—	×0.860	16.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.05%	—	×0.900	12.64%
HR / BF /BF	4.96%	÷1.000	×1.100	5.45%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 6.00 → 6.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAColumbus Clippers · 17 IPFIP 8.03 → 8.11 (+0.09)K% 17.8% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.78%	—	×0.860	15.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.22%	—	×0.900	11.00%
HR / BF /BF	8.89%	÷1.093	×1.100	8.95%

Result: FIP 8.03 → 8.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AATrenton Thunder · 46 IPFIP 3.04 → 3.80 (+0.76)K% 26.5% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.51%	—	×0.810	21.47%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.16%	—	×1.100	12.28%
HR / BF /BF	1.40%	÷0.960	×1.200	1.74%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 3.04 → 3.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Tampa Tarpons · 34 IPFIP 2.28 → 3.06 (+0.78)K% 24.5% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.46%	—	×0.770	18.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.60%	—	×1.150	4.14%
HR / BF /BF	1.44%	÷0.960	×1.250	1.87%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 2.28 → 3.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AATrenton Thunder · 83 IPFIP 2.75 → 3.38 (+0.63)K% 25.1% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.14%	—	×0.810	20.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.01%	—	×1.100	8.81%
HR / BF /BF	1.38%	÷1.034	×1.200	1.60%

Result: FIP 2.75 → 3.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Tampa Tarpons · 41 IPFIP 2.94 → 3.70 (+0.76)K% 30.4% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.43%	—	×0.770	23.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.59%	—	×1.150	6.43%
HR / BF /BF	3.11%	÷1.205	×1.250	3.22%

Result: FIP 2.94 → 3.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trevor Stephan (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.26	20.6%	11.2%	3.8%	—	5.64	19.4%	7.6%	185	+0.38	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	30	SU	4.07	18.0%	5.8%	3.2%	.265	3.88	18.2%	10.9%	157	-0.19	3.52	391	70
Grant Black R 2023 · 5.49 FIP	29	SU	5.49	15.9%	11.3%	4.2%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	215	67
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	67
Austin Adams R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	32	SU	5.80	20.8%	10.6%	5.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	162	65
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	65
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	63
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	63
Chris Jakubauskas R 2009 · 4.97 FIP	30	SW	4.97	12.1%	6.2%	3.9%	.250	4.42	15.7%	7.8%	72	-0.55	4.42	165	62
Brian Sanches R 2010 · 4.24 FIP	31	SU	4.24	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.217	4.35	19.6%	8.5%	62	+0.11	3.39	229	62
Kerry Ligtenberg R 2002 · 4.09 FIP	31	SU	4.09	18.1%	10.7%	2.1%	.237	3.86	18.8%	13.2%	114	-0.23	2.94	381	60
Clay Hensley R 2011 · 4.78 FIP	31	SW	4.78	15.5%	9.8%	3.2%	.249	4.37	17.9%	5.9%	51	-0.41	2.58	517	59
Luis Angel Daniel R 2016 · 4.56 FIP	31	SU	4.56	13.4%	8.9%	2.7%	.286	4.16	9.8%	0.3%	53	-0.40	4.16	156	58
Nick Martinez R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	31	SW	4.26	21.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.273	3.56	19.7%	14.0%	418	-0.70	2.94	1,288	58
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	58
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	58
Javy Guerra R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	31	SU	4.66	16.7%	8.6%	3.4%	.282	3.61	20.9%	15.1%	136	-1.05	2.94	409	57
Manny Acosta R 2012 · 4.49 FIP	31	SU	4.49	21.3%	11.1%	3.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	350	57
Tyler Sturdevant R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	31	SU	4.48	13.5%	6.7%	3.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	149	57
Ryan Brasier R 2019 · 4.12 FIP	31	SU	4.12	25.3%	8.3%	3.8%	.278	3.56	24.3%	18.2%	99	-0.56	2.31	426	57
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	56

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	88	22.8%	10.5%	1.39	4.85
Mike Armstrong ('80-'87, 0 WAR*)	1.7	113	23.0%*	10.9%*	1.41*	4.36*
Bob Humphreys ('62-'70, 1 WAR*)	2.8	81	19.5%*	9.5%*	1.24*	4.22*
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	85	21.2%	10.9%	1.17	4.06
Félix Peña ('21)	1.3	65	23.9%	8.5%	1.35	4.66
Vicente Palacios ('87-'00, 1 WAR*)	1.9	62	21.0%*	10.0%*	1.41*	4.86*
Bill Risley ('98)	1.1	55	21.9%	10.9%	1.26	3.98