Aaron Ashby — OGILVIE

Aaron Ashby P Milwaukee Brewers

Age 28 LHP 6'0" / 194 lbs MLB peak 0.7 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION81 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7078vR 86

ERA2.95

FIP3.09

K%29.0%

BB%10.7%

K-BB%18.3%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 87 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD6060

K†6065

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.3

Whiff%

p9031.7%

p9030.9%

xwOBA vs

p900.266

SL+0.6 (13%)

CH (12%)

SI (52%)

CU (22%)

FB-1.3 (54%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	10	58	242	66	17	4	77%	4.4	19.7%	8.5%	11.2%	2.3%	3.59	3.76	—
2018	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	10	58	242	66	17	4	77%	4.4	27.3%	7.0%	20.2%	1.7%	3.59	2.60	—
2019	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	126	530	135	60	5	96%	5.2	19.2%	13.2%	6.0%	1.2%	3.50	3.80	—
2019	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	23	126	530	135	60	5	96%	5.2	25.5%	11.3%	14.2%	0.9%	3.50	2.90	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	16	95	409	139	44	8	47%	2.8	31.1%	11.1%	19.9%	2.1%	4.45	3.05	+1.7
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	16	95	409	139	44	8	47%	2.8	34.0%	10.8%	23.2%	2.0%	4.45	2.66	+2.2
2022	24	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	27	19	107	475	126	47	15	70%	4.0	26.5%	9.9%	16.6%	3.0%	4.44	3.76	+1.5
2022	24	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	27	19	107	475	126	47	15	70%	4.0	26.5%	9.9%	16.6%	3.2%	4.44	3.88	+1.3
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	7	6	7	42	7	14	1	86%	1.0	16.7%	33.3%	-16.7%	2.4%	15.43	7.22	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	7	6	7	42	7	14	1	86%	1.0	16.7%	33.3%	-16.7%	2.4%	15.43	7.22	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	7	6	7	42	7	14	1	86%	1.0	16.7%	33.3%	-16.7%	2.4%	15.43	8.96	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	16	112	538	125	83	7	41%	2.9	20.3%	14.1%	6.3%	1.5%	6.73	3.98	+0.8
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	16	112	538	125	83	7	41%	2.9	20.3%	14.1%	6.3%	1.5%	6.73	3.98	+0.8
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	16	112	538	125	83	7	41%	2.9	23.2%	15.4%	7.8%	1.3%	6.73	3.90	+0.9
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	48	2	74	304	81	31	3	4%	1.5	28.1%	8.9%	19.3%	1.1%	2.43	2.43	+1.9
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	48	2	74	304	81	31	3	4%	1.5	28.1%	8.9%	19.3%	1.1%	2.43	2.43	+1.9
2025	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	48	2	74	304	81	31	3	4%	1.5	26.6%	10.2%	16.4%	1.0%	2.43	2.69	+1.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			167	27	315	1350	383	131	31	16%	1.9	28.4%	9.7%	18.7%	2.3%	3.51	3.20	+5.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	70	1	81	353	109	38	7	1%	1.2	30.9%	10.8%	20.1%	1.9%	3.21	2.89	+1.6
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	70	1	81	353	109	38	7	1%	1.2	30.9%	10.8%	20.1%	1.9%	3.21	2.89	+1.6
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	MLB RAW	MIL	70	1	81	353	109	38	7	1%	1.2	30.9%	10.8%	20.1%	2.0%	3.21	2.94	+1.6
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	MIL	70	1	81	353	109	38	7	1%	1.2	30.9%	10.8%	20.1%	2.0%	3.21	2.94	+1.6
ROS	28	MLB MLE	MIL	6	0	6	25	7	3	0	0%	1.0	29.0%	10.7%	18.3%	2.0%	2.95	3.09	+0.1
ROS	28	MLB CTX	MIL	6	0	6	25	7	3	1	0%	1.0	29.0%	10.7%	18.3%	2.0%	2.95	3.09	+0.1
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	MIL	—	—	87	378	116	41	7	—	—	30.8%	10.8%	20.0%	2.0%	3.19	2.91	+2.1
FULL	28	MLB A+C	MIL	—	—	87	368	116	41	7	—	—	31.6%	11.0%	20.5%	2.0%	3.19	2.95	+2.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	MIL	64	0	67	283	79	31	6	0%	1.0	28.0%	10.9%	17.1%	2.1%	3.55	3.67	+0.7
2028	30	MLB MLE	MIL	60	0	63	266	73	30	6	0%	1.1	27.3%	11.2%	16.1%	2.3%	3.75	3.88	+0.5
2027	29	MLB CTX	MIL	61	0	64	270	76	29	6	0%	1.0	28.0%	10.9%	17.1%	2.1%	3.55	3.67	+0.7
2028	30	MLB CTX	MIL	57	0	60	253	69	28	6	0%	1.1	27.3%	11.2%	16.1%	2.3%	3.75	3.88	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		290	27	445	1896	534	191	43	9%	1.5	28.2%	10.1%	18.1%	2.3%	3.54	3.25	+6.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		131	12	200	853	240	86	19	9%	1.5	28.2%	10.1%	18.1%	2.3%	3.54	3.25	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		262	93	661	2893	713	338	53	35%	2.5	24.7%	11.7%	13.0%	1.8%	4.32	3.51	+6.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		79	28	200	876	216	102	16	35%	2.5	24.7%	11.7%	13.0%	1.8%	4.32	3.51	+2.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aaron Ashby (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.74	25.8%	10.6%	2.0%	—	3.77	27.6%	16.6%	130	+0.03	—	—	—
Jake Diekman L 2015 · 3.38 FIP	28	SU	3.38	26.5%	11.9%	1.8%	.310	3.25	27.0%	15.3%	106	-0.13	2.36	455	68
Jacob Latz L 2023 · 3.15 FIP	27	SU	3.15	27.1%	9.8%	2.0%	.366	3.36	24.6%	14.7%	209	+0.21	2.26	473	67
Locke St. John L 2021 · 3.07 FIP	28	SU	3.07	25.7%	9.8%	1.6%	.318	5.62	16.5%	3.7%	49	+2.55	3.07	389	67
Sean Doolittle L 2015 · 3.05 FIP	28	SU	3.05	26.3%	8.8%	1.9%	.306	2.38	32.5%	28.6%	135	-0.67	1.39	259	65
Justin Wilson L 2016 · 3.04 FIP	28	SU	3.04	25.9%	6.0%	2.5%	.333	3.45	29.7%	16.8%	152	+0.41	2.49	420	64
Kevin Chapman L 2016 · 3.35 FIP	28	SU	3.35	23.2%	9.5%	1.8%	.348	4.08	19.2%	8.0%	39	+0.73	3.01	153	64
Josh Smoker L 2017 · 4.20 FIP	28	SU	4.20	25.5%	9.4%	3.8%	.329	4.35	20.2%	11.3%	59	+0.15	2.71	230	63
Robbie Ross Jr. L 2016 · 2.81 FIP	27	SU	2.81	23.5%	9.7%	0.9%	.287	5.28	16.1%	-11.9%	11	+2.47	2.81	159	63
Antonio Bastardo L 2015 · 3.10 FIP	29	SU	3.10	26.8%	10.0%	1.8%	.238	5.27	22.6%	11.3%	88	+2.17	3.10	145	62
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	62
Dario Alvarez L 2017 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	24.7%	12.4%	2.0%	.336	3.47	20.7%	8.3%	27	-0.21	3.47	160	62
Travis Wood L 2015 · 3.25 FIP	28	SW	3.25	28.2%	8.1%	2.7%	.293	5.07	16.4%	6.7%	155	+1.82	3.25	256	62
Ray Kerr L 2023 · 3.35 FIP	28	SU	3.35	27.0%	8.3%	2.7%	.276	4.92	27.9%	20.8%	36	+1.57	3.04	373	61
Boone Logan L 2015 · 2.96 FIP	30	SU	2.96	26.2%	9.5%	1.6%	.352	3.05	29.7%	20.6%	78	+0.09	2.58	113	61
Matt Whitehouse L 2019 · 4.07 FIP	28	SW	4.07	20.1%	10.9%	2.3%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	353	61
Aaron Brown L 2019 · 4.04 FIP	27	SU	4.04	22.9%	13.5%	2.1%	.317	4.77	19.4%	6.7%	129	+0.73	4.04	269	60
Mike Dunn L 2015 · 3.75 FIP	30	SU	3.75	27.7%	11.9%	2.7%	.294	4.21	22.5%	10.9%	110	+0.46	3.71	181	60
Edward Paredes L 2016 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	24.1%	13.0%	1.4%	.225	3.55	23.7%	14.0%	86	+0.08	2.36	130	60
Jordan Mills L 2019 · 3.28 FIP	27	SU	3.28	23.2%	9.3%	1.8%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	2.64	210	59
Kevin Siegrist L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	28	SU	3.95	25.0%	11.6%	2.7%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	2.72	176	59

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	67	27.0%	10.9%	0.83	3.63
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Ryan Buchter ('19)	1.1	53	26.7%	10.8%	1.10	2.87
Carl Edwards Jr. ('23)	1.2	50	28.7%	12.4%	0.76	3.05
Cory Gearrin ('19)	1.1	57	21.5%	9.8%	0.79	3.42
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68