Aaron Ashby
P
Milwaukee Brewers
Age 28
LHP
6'0" / 194 lbs
MLB
peak 0.6 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION56 act + 15 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7180vR 89
ERA3.07
FIP3.26
K%28.5%
BB%11.4%
K-BB%17.2%
ROS IP15
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p9097.3
Whiff%
p9031.8%
K%
p9030.6%
xwOBA vs
p870.276
SL+0.6 (13%)
CH (11%)
SI (52%)
CU (19%)
FB-1.3 (55%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 10 | 58 | 242 | 66 | 17 | 4 | 77% | 4.4 | 19.7% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 2.3% | 3.59 | 3.75 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 10 | 58 | 242 | 66 | 17 | 4 | 77% | 4.4 | 27.3% | 7.0% | 20.2% | 1.7% | 3.59 | 2.60 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 23 | 126 | 530 | 135 | 60 | 5 | 96% | 5.2 | 19.2% | 13.2% | 6.0% | 1.1% | 3.50 | 3.78 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 23 | 126 | 530 | 135 | 60 | 5 | 96% | 5.2 | 25.5% | 11.3% | 14.2% | 0.9% | 3.50 | 2.90 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 16 | 95 | 409 | 139 | 44 | 8 | 47% | 2.8 | 31.1% | 11.1% | 19.9% | 2.3% | 4.45 | 3.16 | +2.4 |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 16 | 95 | 409 | 139 | 44 | 8 | 47% | 2.8 | 34.0% | 10.8% | 23.2% | 2.0% | 4.45 | 2.66 | +2.9 |
| 2022 | 24 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 27 | 19 | 107 | 475 | 126 | 47 | 15 | 70% | 4.0 | 26.5% | 9.9% | 16.6% | 3.3% | 4.44 | 3.92 | +1.9 |
| 2022 | 24 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 27 | 19 | 107 | 475 | 126 | 47 | 15 | 70% | 4.0 | 26.5% | 9.9% | 16.6% | 3.2% | 4.44 | 3.88 | +1.9 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 7 | 6 | 7 | 42 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 86% | 1.0 | 16.7% | 33.3% | -16.7% | 2.4% | 15.43 | 7.22 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 7 | 6 | 7 | 42 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 86% | 1.0 | 16.7% | 33.3% | -16.7% | 2.4% | 15.43 | 8.96 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 16 | 112 | 538 | 125 | 83 | 7 | 41% | 2.9 | 21.2% | 16.1% | 5.1% | 1.6% | 6.73 | 4.25 | +1.5 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 16 | 112 | 538 | 125 | 83 | 7 | 41% | 2.9 | 23.2% | 15.4% | 7.8% | 1.3% | 6.73 | 3.90 | +2.0 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 48 | 2 | 74 | 304 | 81 | 31 | 3 | 4% | 1.5 | 28.1% | 8.9% | 19.3% | 1.2% | 2.43 | 2.48 | +2.0 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 48 | 2 | 74 | 304 | 81 | 31 | 3 | 4% | 1.5 | 26.6% | 10.2% | 16.4% | 1.0% | 2.43 | 2.69 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 45 | 1 | 56 | 245 | 75 | 28 | 5 | 2% | 1.2 | 30.6% | 11.4% | 19.2% | 2.0% | 3.56 | 3.08 | +1.0 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | MIL | 14 | 0 | 15 | 61 | 18 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.5% | 11.4% | 17.2% | 2.1% | 3.07 | 3.26 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | MIL | 14 | 0 | 15 | 63 | 18 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.5% | 11.4% | 17.2% | 2.1% | 3.07 | 3.26 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 70 | 306 | 93 | 35 | 6 | — | — | 30.2% | 11.4% | 18.8% | 2.0% | 3.46 | 3.12 | +1.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 70 | 296 | 93 | 35 | 6 | — | — | 31.2% | 11.8% | 19.4% | 2.1% | 3.46 | 3.12 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 64 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 78 | 33 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 16.0% | 2.2% | 3.69 | 3.83 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 71 | 32 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.9% | 11.9% | 15.0% | 2.4% | 3.90 | 4.04 | +0.4 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 74 | 31 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 16.0% | 2.2% | 3.69 | 3.83 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 57 | 0 | 60 | 253 | 68 | 30 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.9% | 11.9% | 15.0% | 2.4% | 3.90 | 4.04 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 273 | 27 | 428 | 1825 | 508 | 189 | 42 | 10% | 1.6 | 27.9% | 10.4% | 17.5% | 2.3% | 3.64 | 3.33 | +10.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 128 | 13 | 200 | 853 | 238 | 88 | 20 | 10% | 1.6 | 27.9% | 10.4% | 17.5% | 2.3% | 3.64 | 3.33 | +4.8 | ||
| Career | — | 237 | 93 | 635 | 2785 | 684 | 339 | 55 | 39% | 2.7 | 24.6% | 12.2% | 12.4% | 2.0% | 4.39 | 3.65 | +13.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 75 | 29 | 200 | 877 | 215 | 107 | 17 | 39% | 2.7 | 24.6% | 12.2% | 12.4% | 2.0% | 4.39 | 3.65 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Aaron Ashby (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.84 | 26.1% | 11.3% | 2.1% | — | 3.93 | 27.2% | 15.5% | 130 | +0.09 | — | — | — |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.40 | 26.5% | 11.9% | 1.9% | .310 | 3.21 | 27.0% | 15.3% | 106 | -0.19 | 2.33 | 455 | 65 |
| Locke St. John L 2026 · 3.02 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.02 | 25.7% | 9.8% | 1.6% | .318 | 5.55 | 16.5% | 3.7% | 49 | +2.53 | 3.02 | 389 | 65 |
| Matt Whitehouse L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.02 | 20.1% | 10.9% | 2.2% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 353 | 63 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 62 |
| Sean Doolittle L 2026 · 3.00 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.00 | 26.3% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .306 | 2.34 | 32.5% | 28.6% | 135 | -0.66 | 1.39 | 259 | 62 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.31 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 1.8% | .348 | 4.21 | 19.2% | 8.0% | 39 | +0.90 | 3.04 | 153 | 62 |
| Travis Wood L 2026 · 3.16 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.16 | 28.2% | 8.1% | 2.6% | .293 | 5.17 | 16.4% | 6.7% | 155 | +2.01 | 3.16 | 256 | 60 |
| Hector Hernandez L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.57 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 121 | 60 |
| Aaron Brown L 2025 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.88 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 1.8% | .317 | 4.79 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 129 | +0.91 | 3.88 | 269 | 60 |
| Josh Smoker L 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.20 | 25.5% | 9.4% | 3.8% | .329 | 4.44 | 20.2% | 11.3% | 59 | +0.24 | 2.66 | 230 | 60 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.61 | 24.7% | 12.4% | 1.8% | .336 | 3.52 | 20.7% | 8.3% | 27 | -0.09 | 3.41 | 160 | 60 |
| Antonio Bastardo L 2027 · 3.04 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.04 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 1.7% | .238 | 5.18 | 22.6% | 11.3% | 88 | +2.14 | 3.04 | 145 | 59 |
| Ray Kerr L 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.48 | 27.8% | 9.2% | 2.8% | .276 | 4.99 | 28.6% | 21.0% | 36 | +1.51 | 3.22 | 373 | 59 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2025 · 2.79 FIP | 27 | SU | 2.79 | 23.5% | 9.7% | 0.8% | .287 | 5.28 | 16.1% | -11.9% | 11 | +2.49 | 2.79 | 159 | 59 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.01 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 221 | 59 |
| Justin Wilson L 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.10 | 25.9% | 6.0% | 2.6% | .333 | 3.39 | 29.7% | 16.8% | 152 | +0.29 | 2.48 | 420 | 59 |
| Colton Turner L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.96 | 22.4% | 9.2% | 2.9% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 325 | 59 |
| A.J. Block L 2025 · 3.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.64 | 22.7% | 12.4% | 1.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 203 | 59 |
| Edward Paredes L 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.49 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .225 | 3.53 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 86 | +0.04 | 2.29 | 130 | 58 |
| Nik Turley L 2025 · 3.12 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.12 | 26.6% | 8.4% | 2.2% | .320 | 3.24 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 22 | +0.12 | 3.12 | 313 | 58 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 67 | 26.8% | 11.6% | 0.86 | 3.74 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Wade Davis ('21) | 6 | 53 | 27.3% | 10.4% | 0.90 | 3.77 |
| Brad Brach ('21) | 6 | 62 | 25.6% | 10.5% | 0.84 | 3.50 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |