Aaron Ashby
P
Milwaukee Brewers
+0.7
WAR
Age 28
LHP
6'0" / 194 lbs
MLB
Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 0.7 · 2026
ERA3.24
FIP3.83
xFIP2.65
SIERA2.61
K%25.0%
BB%11.2%
K-BB%13.8%
IP53
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2026
K†6065
FB Velo
p7896.5
Whiff%
p9037.9%
K%
p9037.5%
xwOBA vs
p900.271
SL+0.6 (15%)
CH (11%)
SI (50%)
CU (20%)
FB-1.3 (53%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 20 | A | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 13 | 10 | 58 | 242 | 66 | 17 | 4 | 19.7% | 8.5% | 2.3% | 3.59 | 3.76 | +0.8 |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ | Carolina Mudcats | 24 | 23 | 126 | 530 | 135 | 60 | 5 | 19.2% | 13.2% | 1.2% | 3.50 | 3.80 | +2.1 |
| 2021 | 23 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 34 | 16 | 95 | 409 | 139 | 44 | 8 | 31.1% | 11.1% | 2.1% | 4.45 | 3.05 | +2.4 |
| 2022 | 24 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 27 | 19 | 107 | 475 | 126 | 47 | 15 | 26.5% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 4.44 | 3.66 | +2.0 |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 7 | 6 | 7 | 42 | 7 | 14 | 1 | — | — | — | 15.43 | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 39 | 16 | 112 | 538 | 125 | 83 | 7 | 21.2% | 16.1% | 1.4% | 6.73 | 4.13 | +1.5 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 48 | 2 | 74 | 304 | 81 | 31 | 3 | 28.1% | 8.9% | 1.0% | 2.43 | 2.42 | +2.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 11 | 1 | 14 | 59 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 37.3% | 10.2% | 1.7% | 3.21 | 2.17 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | MIL | 36 | — | 36 | 150 | 43 | 17 | 3 | 28.8% | 11.0% | 2.0% | 2.54 | 3.14 | +0.7 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 50 | 209 | 65 | 23 | 4 | 31.2% | 10.8% | 1.9% | 2.73 | 2.86 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 54 | 21 | 4 | 28.3% | 11.1% | 2.0% | 3.32 | 3.59 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 41 | — | 41 | 172 | 48 | 19 | 4 | 27.8% | 11.2% | 2.1% | 3.54 | 3.69 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 36 | — | 36 | 154 | 42 | 17 | 3 | 27.2% | 11.3% | 2.1% | 3.69 | 3.79 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 37 | 16 | 3 | 26.6% | 11.5% | 2.2% | 3.82 | 3.90 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | MIL | 29 | — | 29 | 122 | 32 | 14 | 3 | 25.9% | 11.7% | 2.3% | 3.95 | 4.03 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 203 | 93 | 593 | 2599 | 631 | 317 | 47 | 24.3% | 12.2% | 1.8% | 4.44 | 3.58 | +11.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 68 | 31 | 200 | 876 | 213 | 107 | 16 | 24.3% | 12.2% | 1.8% | 4.44 | 3.58 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Aaron Ashby (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.76 | 26.3% | 11.2% | 2.0% | — | 3.68 | 27.8% | 16.6% | 122 | -0.08 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.61 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.36 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.25 | 3.36 | 153 | 75 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.79 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .321 | 3.32 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 66 | -0.47 | 2.89 | 101 | 75 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2027 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 74 |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.40 | 26.5% | 11.9% | 1.9% | .310 | 3.25 | 27.0% | 15.3% | 106 | -0.15 | 2.32 | 455 | 73 |
| Daniel Rodriguez L 2028 · 2.89 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.89 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 0.6% | .256 | 4.17 | 16.3% | 5.9% | 234 | +1.28 | 2.89 | 391 | 73 |
| Edward Paredes L 2027 · 3.47 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.47 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .225 | 3.55 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 86 | +0.08 | 2.37 | 130 | 72 |
| Colt Hynes L 2028 · 3.42 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.42 | 16.2% | 8.4% | 1.1% | .290 | 3.68 | 17.9% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.26 | 3.42 | 152 | 72 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.19 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 3.0% | .308 | 5.03 | 13.8% | -5.1% | 35 | +0.84 | 3.48 | 134 | 72 |
| Jordan Harrison L 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.82 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 2.0% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 244 | 71 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.34 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 1.8% | .348 | 4.07 | 19.2% | 8.0% | 39 | +0.73 | 3.02 | 153 | 71 |
| Hector Hernandez L 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.35 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 1.5% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 121 | 71 |
| Marlon Arias L 2028 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .330 | 3.73 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.57 | 3.73 | 154 | 70 |
| Aaron Brown L 2025 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.02 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .317 | 4.77 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 129 | +0.75 | 4.02 | 269 | 70 |
| Dan Runzler L 2028 · 3.78 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.78 | 19.0% | 13.1% | 1.1% | .383 | 4.03 | 16.5% | 4.0% | 63 | +0.25 | 3.78 | 127 | 70 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.57 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 2.9% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 171 | 69 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2025 · 2.79 FIP | 27 | SW | 2.79 | 23.5% | 9.7% | 0.8% | .287 | 5.28 | 16.1% | -11.9% | 11 | +2.49 | 2.79 | 159 | 69 |
| Juan Grullon L 2024 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.67 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 134 | 69 |
| Stephen Peterson L 2026 · 3.04 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.04 | 17.3% | 11.0% | 0.0% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 120 | 69 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.67 | 24.7% | 12.4% | 2.0% | .336 | 3.47 | 20.7% | 8.3% | 27 | -0.20 | 3.47 | 160 | 68 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.69 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .267 | 3.20 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.49 | 2.44 | 124 | 68 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Arb-3
MLB Debut 2021
Service 5.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2029
First FA Year 2030
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-3 | $6M | +0.7 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2027 | Ext / FA-deal | $8M | +0.7 | $3M | -$5M |
| 2028 | Ext / FA-deal | $9M | +0.6 | $3M | -$6M |
| 2029 | Ext / FA-deal | $13M | +0.5 | $2M | -$11M |
| Totals | $32M | $10M | -$22M | ||
Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$22M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$22M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.