Sterling Patick
P
Great Lakes Loons
Age 21
LHP
6'1" / 180 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 1.3 · 2031
2026 ROS PROJECTION66 act + 60 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108118vR 127
ERA4.76
FIP4.76
K%19.4%
BB%11.3%
K-BB%8.1%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 126 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 11 | 32 | 138 | 31 | 11 | 1 | 92% | 2.6 | 16.0% | 9.8% | 6.3% | 0.8% | 4.55 | 3.44 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 11 | 32 | 138 | 31 | 11 | 1 | 92% | 2.6 | 22.5% | 8.0% | 14.5% | 0.7% | 4.55 | 2.59 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 21 | 92 | 402 | 108 | 39 | 5 | 84% | 3.7 | 19.9% | 11.8% | 8.2% | 1.6% | 4.00 | 3.77 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 21 | 92 | 402 | 108 | 39 | 5 | 84% | 3.7 | 26.9% | 9.7% | 17.2% | 1.2% | 4.00 | 2.73 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 16 | 15 | 66 | 309 | 70 | 34 | 7 | 94% | 4.1 | 17.4% | 12.7% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 5.43 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | LAD | 12 | 12 | 60 | 252 | 49 | 28 | 7 | 100% | 5.0 | 19.4% | 11.3% | 8.1% | 2.7% | 4.76 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 19.4% | 11.3% | 8.1% | 2.6% | 4.72 | 4.72 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 126 | 561 | 119 | 62 | 14 | — | — | 21.2% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 2.5% | 5.11 | 4.77 | +0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 21 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 19.4% | 11.3% | 8.1% | 2.6% | 4.72 | 4.34 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | LAD | 12 | 12 | 63 | 265 | 55 | 27 | 7 | 100% | 5.2 | 20.7% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 2.7% | 4.59 | 4.51 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | LAD | 12 | 12 | 65 | 275 | 60 | 27 | 7 | 100% | 5.4 | 21.6% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 2.7% | 4.44 | 4.35 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | LAD | 12 | 12 | 67 | 282 | 63 | 27 | 7 | 100% | 5.6 | 22.3% | 9.4% | 12.8% | 2.6% | 4.32 | 4.25 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 12 | 12 | 68 | 285 | 65 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 5.6 | 22.7% | 9.3% | 13.4% | 2.6% | 4.24 | 4.19 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 11 | 11 | 68 | 285 | 65 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.9% | 9.2% | 13.7% | 2.6% | 4.19 | 4.16 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 11 | 11 | 66 | 281 | 64 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.9% | 9.3% | 13.6% | 2.7% | 4.20 | 4.20 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 11 | 11 | 64 | 272 | 62 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.8% | 9.4% | 13.3% | 2.8% | 4.25 | 4.29 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 10 | 10 | 62 | 260 | 59 | 25 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 4.35 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 10 | 10 | 58 | 244 | 54 | 24 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 3.1% | 4.50 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | LAD | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 50 | 24 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 11.4% | 3.4% | 4.68 | 4.80 | -0.2 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | LAD | 8 | 8 | 50 | 211 | 45 | 23 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.3% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 3.6% | 4.89 | 5.02 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | LAD | 6 | 6 | 31 | 131 | 27 | 14 | 3 | 100% | 5.2 | 20.7% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 2.6% | 4.55 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | LAD | 9 | 9 | 48 | 203 | 44 | 20 | 5 | 100% | 5.3 | 21.6% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 2.6% | 4.40 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | LAD | 10 | 10 | 55 | 232 | 52 | 22 | 6 | 100% | 5.5 | 22.3% | 9.4% | 12.8% | 2.6% | 4.28 | 4.21 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 10 | 10 | 60 | 253 | 57 | 23 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.7% | 9.3% | 13.4% | 2.6% | 4.20 | 4.15 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 10 | 10 | 62 | 262 | 60 | 24 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.9% | 9.2% | 13.7% | 2.6% | 4.15 | 4.12 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 10 | 10 | 62 | 262 | 60 | 24 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.9% | 9.3% | 13.6% | 2.6% | 4.16 | 4.16 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 10 | 10 | 60 | 253 | 58 | 24 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.8% | 9.4% | 13.3% | 2.7% | 4.21 | 4.25 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 10 | 10 | 59 | 249 | 56 | 24 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 9 | 9 | 55 | 232 | 51 | 23 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | LAD | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 47 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 6.4 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 11.4% | 3.3% | 4.63 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | LAD | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 43 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.3% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 3.5% | 4.84 | 4.97 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 101 | 101 | 590 | 2490 | 554 | 242 | 70 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.3% | 9.7% | 12.5% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 3.99 | +9.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 188 | 82 | 24 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.3% | 9.7% | 12.5% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 3.99 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 53 | 47 | 190 | 849 | 156 | 100 | 16 | 89% | 3.6 | 18.4% | 11.8% | 6.6% | 1.9% | 4.59 | 4.09 | +2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 49 | 200 | 892 | 164 | 105 | 17 | 89% | 3.6 | 18.4% | 11.8% | 6.6% | 1.9% | 4.59 | 4.09 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sterling Patick (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.76 | 19.4% | 11.3% | 2.7% | — | 4.37 | 21.6% | 11.7% | 194 | -0.39 | — | — | — |
| Rylan Kaufman L 2027 · 4.35 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.35 | 19.3% | 12.1% | 2.4% | .305 | 4.69 | 18.9% | 4.5% | 131 | +0.34 | 4.01 | 212 | 90 |
| Evan Shawver L 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.04 | 18.8% | 10.6% | 2.2% | .289 | 4.64 | 18.0% | 4.0% | 152 | +0.60 | 4.01 | 258 | 87 |
| John Beller L 2027 · 4.59 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.59 | 19.7% | 14.1% | 2.5% | .326 | 4.22 | 22.2% | 7.1% | 90 | -0.37 | 4.00 | 170 | 86 |
| Packy Naughton L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.45 | 17.0% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .323 | 3.57 | 15.9% | 10.0% | 311 | -0.88 | 2.97 | 504 | 85 |
| Christian MacLeod L 2028 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.36 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.4% | .312 | 4.46 | 21.0% | 7.7% | 184 | +0.10 | 3.84 | 249 | 85 |
| Avery Short L 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.04 | 20.1% | 11.4% | 4.0% | .346 | 4.76 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 271 | -0.28 | 4.31 | 460 | 84 |
| Mason Molina L 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.28 | 22.7% | 12.6% | 2.7% | .276 | 3.56 | 23.3% | 13.3% | 69 | -0.72 | 3.56 | 165 | 83 |
| Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2027 · 4.67 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.67 | 19.6% | 14.6% | 2.5% | .266 | 3.89 | 20.3% | 3.7% | 33 | -0.78 | 2.81 | 146 | 83 |
| Matt Mikulski L 2028 · 4.80 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.80 | 19.4% | 10.0% | 3.8% | .360 | 5.95 | 16.3% | -2.8% | 144 | +1.15 | 4.80 | 223 | 83 |
| Kash Mayfield L 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.36 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 109 | 82 |
| Luis Moncada L 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.81 | 19.2% | 12.0% | 1.5% | .278 | 3.85 | 17.6% | 5.7% | 68 | +0.04 | 3.81 | 296 | 82 |
| Hogan Harris L 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.73 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 1.9% | .235 | 3.64 | 27.4% | 12.7% | 74 | -0.09 | 3.14 | 473 | 81 |
| Justin Sinibaldi L 2028 · 4.79 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.79 | 15.9% | 11.1% | 3.0% | .286 | 6.01 | 14.0% | 3.4% | 72 | +1.22 | 4.79 | 163 | 81 |
| Dominic Perachi L 2027 · 5.25 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.25 | 17.5% | 13.9% | 3.4% | .324 | 3.93 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 182 | -1.32 | 3.47 | 273 | 81 |
| Cole Ragans L 2028 · 5.15 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.15 | 20.2% | 11.2% | 4.2% | .296 | 3.38 | 26.8% | 17.4% | 445 | -1.77 | 2.46 | 623 | 81 |
| Hayden Mullins L 2028 · 4.33 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.33 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 3.0% | .288 | 4.01 | 25.1% | 10.7% | 150 | -0.32 | 3.72 | 239 | 81 |
| Caden Grice L 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.23 | 23.1% | 15.7% | 2.0% | .282 | 5.28 | 17.3% | 1.8% | 55 | +1.05 | 4.23 | 105 | 80 |
| Joe Whitman L 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.90 | 18.6% | 9.9% | 2.0% | .303 | 3.53 | 21.0% | 12.2% | 199 | -0.37 | 3.35 | 302 | 80 |
| Juan Amarante L 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.08 | 15.9% | 11.1% | 1.7% | .293 | 4.83 | 17.0% | -0.9% | 17 | +0.75 | 3.43 | 224 | 80 |
| Sam Weatherly L 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.86 | 24.0% | 12.8% | 2.1% | .323 | 4.14 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 41 | +0.28 | 3.86 | 189 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 12 | 62 | 22.0% | 9.9% | 1.10 | 4.43 |
| Buck Farmer ('24) | 10 | 50 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 1.23 | 4.59 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Joe Kelly ('24) | 9 | 56 | 24.6% | 10.3% | 0.81 | 4.40 |
| Daniel Hudson ('24) | 9 | 52 | 25.5% | 8.9% | 1.13 | 3.75 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |