Sterling Patick — OGILVIE

Sterling Patick P Great Lakes Loons

Age 21 LHP 6'1" / 180 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.9 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION103 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108117vR 125

ERA4.82

FIP4.82

K%19.4%

BB%11.7%

K-BB%7.7%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 108 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$19M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4045

CTRL—50

CMD3545

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2031	Arb-1	$3M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.5M
2032	Arb-2	$5M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$7M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$12M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	11	32	138	31	11	1	92%	2.6	16.0%	9.8%	6.3%	0.9%	4.55	3.47	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	11	32	138	31	11	1	92%	2.6	16.0%	9.8%	6.3%	0.9%	4.55	3.47	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	11	32	138	31	11	1	92%	2.6	22.5%	8.0%	14.5%	0.7%	4.55	2.59	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	21	92	402	108	39	5	84%	3.7	19.9%	11.8%	8.2%	1.7%	4.00	3.82	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	21	92	402	108	39	5	84%	3.7	19.9%	11.8%	8.2%	1.7%	4.00	3.82	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	21	92	402	108	39	5	84%	3.7	26.9%	9.7%	17.2%	1.2%	4.00	2.73	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	24	22	103	469	114	51	14	92%	4.3	18.7%	12.5%	6.2%	3.7%	5.35	5.15	—
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	24	22	103	469	114	51	14	92%	4.3	18.7%	12.5%	6.2%	3.7%	5.35	5.15	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A+ RAW	LAD	24	22	103	469	114	51	14	92%	4.3	24.3%	10.9%	13.4%	3.0%	5.35	4.06	—
ROS	21	MLB MLE	LAD	1	1	5	23	4	3	1	100%	5.4	19.4%	11.7%	7.7%	2.7%	4.82	4.82	+0.0
2026 TOT	21	MLB MLE	LAD	—	—	108	492	118	54	15	—	—	24.1%	10.9%	13.2%	3.0%	5.32	5.13	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	LAD	21	21	106	445	92	47	12	100%	5.0	20.6%	10.5%	10.1%	2.7%	4.64	4.55	+0.4
2028	23	MLB MLE	LAD	20	20	110	462	99	45	12	100%	5.5	21.4%	9.8%	11.6%	2.7%	4.48	4.38	+0.7
2029	24	MLB MLE	LAD	20	20	112	474	104	45	13	100%	5.6	22.0%	9.4%	12.6%	2.7%	4.35	4.27	+0.8
2030	25	MLB MLE	LAD	19	19	114	480	107	44	13	100%	6.0	22.4%	9.2%	13.2%	2.6%	4.27	4.21	+0.9
2031	26	MLB MLE	LAD	19	19	114	480	108	44	13	100%	6.0	22.6%	9.2%	13.4%	2.6%	4.22	4.19	+1.0
2032	27	MLB MLE	LAD	19	19	112	472	107	44	13	100%	5.9	22.6%	9.3%	13.3%	2.7%	4.23	4.23	+0.9
2033	28	MLB MLE	LAD	18	18	108	458	103	43	13	100%	6.0	22.4%	9.4%	13.0%	2.8%	4.28	4.31	+0.8
2034	29	MLB MLE	LAD	17	17	104	437	97	42	13	100%	6.1	22.2%	9.6%	12.6%	2.9%	4.38	4.45	+0.5
2035	30	MLB MLE	LAD	16	16	97	411	90	41	13	100%	6.1	21.8%	9.9%	11.9%	3.1%	4.53	4.62	+0.3
2036	31	MLB MLE	LAD	15	15	91	383	82	39	13	100%	6.1	21.4%	10.3%	11.2%	3.4%	4.71	4.83	+0.1
2037	32	MLB MLE	LAD	14	14	84	355	74	38	13	100%	6.0	21.0%	10.7%	10.3%	3.6%	4.91	5.05	-0.1
2027	22	MLB CTX	LAD	10	10	52	220	45	23	6	100%	5.2	20.6%	10.5%	10.1%	2.8%	4.70	4.61	+0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	LAD	15	15	80	338	72	33	9	100%	5.3	21.4%	9.8%	11.6%	2.8%	4.54	4.44	+0.5
2029	24	MLB CTX	LAD	17	17	93	393	86	37	11	100%	5.5	22.0%	9.4%	12.6%	2.8%	4.41	4.33	+0.7
2030	25	MLB CTX	LAD	17	17	100	422	94	39	12	100%	5.9	22.4%	9.2%	13.2%	2.8%	4.33	4.27	+0.8
2031	26	MLB CTX	LAD	17	17	104	439	99	40	12	100%	6.1	22.6%	9.2%	13.4%	2.8%	4.28	4.25	+0.9
2032	27	MLB CTX	LAD	17	17	104	439	99	41	12	100%	6.1	22.6%	9.3%	13.3%	2.8%	4.29	4.29	+0.8
2033	28	MLB CTX	LAD	17	17	102	431	97	41	13	100%	6.0	22.4%	9.4%	13.0%	2.9%	4.35	4.38	+0.7
2034	29	MLB CTX	LAD	16	16	98	414	92	40	13	100%	6.1	22.2%	9.6%	12.6%	3.1%	4.45	4.52	+0.5
2035	30	MLB CTX	LAD	16	16	93	393	86	39	13	100%	5.8	21.8%	9.9%	11.9%	3.3%	4.60	4.69	+0.3
2036	31	MLB CTX	LAD	14	14	86	363	78	37	13	100%	6.1	21.4%	10.3%	11.2%	3.5%	4.79	4.91	+0.1
2037	32	MLB CTX	LAD	13	13	80	338	71	36	13	100%	6.2	21.0%	10.7%	10.3%	3.8%	4.99	5.13	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		170	170	992	4187	919	406	126	100%	5.8	22.0%	9.7%	12.3%	3.0%	4.50	4.13	+9.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	185	82	25	100%	5.8	22.0%	9.7%	12.3%	3.0%	4.50	4.13	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		61	54	227	1009	190	119	25	89%	3.7	18.8%	11.8%	7.0%	2.5%	4.69	4.39	+6.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	48	200	890	168	105	22	89%	3.7	18.8%	11.8%	7.0%	2.5%	4.69	4.39	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sterling Patick (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.82	19.4%	11.7%	2.7%	—	4.40	21.3%	11.4%	327	-0.42	—	—	—
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	90
Evan Shawver L 2022 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	18.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.289	4.73	18.0%	4.0%	152	+0.41	3.92	278	88
John Beller L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	19.7%	14.1%	2.3%	.326	4.35	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.13	4.16	170	87
Jackson Humphries L 2023 · 4.48 FIP	19	SP	4.48	19.8%	14.0%	2.3%	.302	5.94	20.8%	1.5%	248	+1.46	4.48	305	87
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	86
Packy Naughton L 2017 · 4.45 FIP	21	SP	4.45	17.0%	9.9%	2.8%	.323	3.62	15.9%	10.0%	311	-0.83	3.04	504	85
Avery Short L 2022 · 4.82 FIP	21	SP-	4.82	20.1%	11.4%	3.6%	.346	4.72	15.0%	6.4%	271	-0.10	4.20	485	84
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	83
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	83
Luis Moncada L 2018 · 3.81 FIP	20	SP-	3.81	19.2%	12.0%	1.5%	.278	3.87	17.6%	5.7%	68	+0.06	3.81	296	82
Wilkin Paredes L 2023 · 4.11 FIP	19	SP	4.11	16.2%	9.1%	2.2%	.353	4.96	12.1%	3.3%	273	+0.85	4.11	319	82
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.7%	17.4%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	82
Hogan Harris L 2019 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	20.5%	10.6%	2.1%	.235	3.71	27.4%	12.7%	74	-0.13	3.11	495	81
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	81
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	81
Keegan Akin L 2017 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP	4.55	20.2%	12.5%	2.9%	.303	4.23	22.2%	10.7%	276	-0.32	2.62	743	81
Russell Smith L 2022 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	16.0%	10.4%	3.8%	.272	4.64	21.2%	7.8%	107	-0.50	4.00	175	80
Frankeli Arias L 2023 · 4.27 FIP	20	SP-	4.27	15.0%	12.2%	1.6%	.318	5.53	16.1%	3.0%	196	+1.26	3.87	298	80
Anfernee Benitez L 2015 · 4.76 FIP	20	SP	4.76	18.1%	10.7%	3.3%	.383	3.89	17.8%	1.5%	71	-0.87	3.81	137	79
Brett Adcock L 2017 · 4.06 FIP	21	SP-	4.06	19.7%	10.0%	2.5%	.294	4.62	17.2%	2.8%	193	+0.56	4.02	301	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.1	101	21.8%	9.8%	1.11	4.46
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32