Sterling Patick

P Great Lakes Loons

Age 22 LHP 6'1" / 180 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.8 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#640ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	MIX2 levels	12	11	32	4.55	2.59	22.5%	8.0%	—	K 16.0% · BB 9.8% · FIP 3.47
2025	20	MIX2 levels	25	21	92	4.00	2.73	26.9%	9.7%	—	K 19.9% · BB 11.8% · FIP 3.82
2026	21	A+LAD	24	22	103	5.35	4.14	24.3%	10.9%	—	K 18.7% · BB 12.5% · FIP 5.15
2027PROJ	22	MLBLAD	—	—	0	5.19	5.19	18.7%	12.6%	—
2028PROJ35% MLB	23	MLBLAD	5	5	27	5.05	4.97	19.8%	11.3%	0.2
2029PROJ54% MLB	24	MLBLAD	7	7	41	4.87	4.79	20.5%	10.5%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$1M2032Arb-2$2M2033Arb-3$2M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 8.6, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 80%

CompsRylan Kaufman (age 22) · John Beller (age 22) · Dominic Perachi (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116124vR 132

ERA5.19

FIP5.19

K%18.7%

BB%12.6%

K-BB%6.1%

Proj IP72

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 72 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$10M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Arb-2	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.2M
2033	Arb-3	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$7M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	11	32	138	31	11	1	92%	2.6	16.0%	9.8%	6.3%	0.9%	4.55	3.47	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	11	32	138	31	11	1	92%	2.6	16.0%	9.8%	6.3%	0.9%	4.55	3.47	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	11	32	138	31	11	1	92%	2.6	22.5%	8.0%	14.5%	0.7%	4.55	2.59	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	21	92	402	108	39	5	84%	3.7	19.9%	11.8%	8.2%	1.7%	4.00	3.82	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	21	92	402	108	39	5	84%	3.7	19.9%	11.8%	8.2%	1.7%	4.00	3.82	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	21	92	402	108	39	5	84%	3.7	26.9%	9.7%	17.2%	1.2%	4.00	2.73	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	24	22	103	469	114	51	14	92%	4.3	18.7%	12.5%	6.2%	3.7%	5.35	5.15	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	24	22	103	469	114	51	14	92%	4.3	18.7%	12.5%	6.2%	3.7%	5.35	5.15	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	Great Lakes Loons	24	22	103	469	114	51	14	92%	4.3	24.3%	10.9%	13.4%	3.0%	5.35	4.14	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	LAD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.7%	12.6%	6.1%	3.1%	5.19	5.19	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	LAD	14	14	76	320	63	36	10	100%	5.4	19.8%	11.3%	8.5%	3.0%	4.98	4.90	+0.4
2029	24	MLB MLE	LAD	14	14	76	320	66	34	10	100%	5.4	20.5%	10.5%	10.1%	3.0%	4.80	4.72	+0.6
2030	25	MLB MLE	LAD	12	12	68	287	60	29	9	100%	5.7	21.0%	10.0%	11.0%	3.0%	4.68	4.61	+0.6
2031	26	MLB MLE	LAD	11	11	68	285	61	28	9	100%	6.1	21.2%	9.9%	11.3%	3.0%	4.62	4.58	+0.6
2032	27	MLB MLE	LAD	11	11	66	278	59	28	8	100%	6.0	21.2%	10.0%	11.2%	3.0%	4.62	4.62	+0.6
2033	28	MLB MLE	LAD	10	10	63	264	56	27	8	100%	6.3	21.1%	10.1%	10.9%	3.1%	4.67	4.70	+0.5
2034	29	MLB MLE	LAD	10	10	58	245	51	25	8	100%	5.8	20.8%	10.4%	10.5%	3.3%	4.77	4.84	+0.4
2035	30	MLB MLE	LAD	9	9	53	223	46	24	8	100%	5.9	20.5%	10.7%	9.8%	3.5%	4.92	5.01	+0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	LAD	5	5	27	114	23	13	4	100%	5.4	19.8%	11.3%	8.5%	3.2%	5.05	4.97	+0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	LAD	7	7	41	173	36	18	5	100%	5.9	20.5%	10.5%	10.1%	3.1%	4.87	4.79	+0.3
2030	25	MLB CTX	LAD	8	8	46	194	41	19	6	100%	5.8	21.0%	10.0%	11.0%	3.1%	4.75	4.68	+0.4
2031	26	MLB CTX	LAD	9	9	52	220	47	22	7	100%	5.8	21.2%	9.9%	11.3%	3.1%	4.69	4.65	+0.5
2032	27	MLB CTX	LAD	9	9	54	228	48	23	7	100%	6.0	21.2%	10.0%	11.2%	3.2%	4.69	4.69	+0.5
2033	28	MLB CTX	LAD	9	9	53	224	47	23	7	100%	5.9	21.1%	10.1%	10.9%	3.3%	4.74	4.77	+0.4
2034	29	MLB CTX	LAD	8	8	51	215	45	22	7	100%	6.4	20.8%	10.4%	10.5%	3.4%	4.85	4.92	+0.3
2035	30	MLB CTX	LAD	8	8	47	198	41	21	7	100%	5.9	20.5%	10.7%	9.8%	3.6%	5.00	5.09	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		63	63	370	1561	325	160	51	100%	5.9	20.8%	10.3%	10.6%	3.3%	4.81	4.43	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	176	87	28	100%	5.9	20.8%	10.3%	10.6%	3.3%	4.81	4.43	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		61	54	227	1009	190	119	25	89%	3.7	18.8%	11.8%	7.0%	2.5%	4.69	4.39	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	48	200	890	168	105	22	89%	3.7	18.8%	11.8%	7.0%	2.5%	4.69	4.39	+1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Great Lakes Loons · 103 IPFIP 4.06 → 5.15 (+1.09)K% 24.3% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.31%	—	×0.770	18.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.87%	—	×1.150	12.51%
HR / BF /BF	2.99%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.73%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.06 → 5.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 85 IPFIP 2.83 → 3.82 (+0.99)K% 27.0% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.95%	—	×0.740	19.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.97%	—	×1.180	11.77%
HR / BF /BF	1.35%	÷1.055	×1.300	1.66%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 111).

Result: FIP 2.83 → 3.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Great Lakes Loons · 7 IPFIP 1.74 → 2.36 (+0.62)K% 25.8% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.81%	—	×0.770	19.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.45%	—	×1.150	7.42%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.992	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.74 → 2.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 18 IPFIP 2.62 → 3.35 (+0.74)K% 21.5% → 15.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.52%	—	×0.740	15.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.06%	—	×1.180	5.97%
HR / BF /BF	1.27%	÷1.072	×1.300	1.54%

Result: FIP 2.62 → 3.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Dodgers · 14 IPFIP 2.60 → 3.62 (+1.02)K% 23.7% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.73%	—	×0.680	16.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.86%	—	×1.250	14.83%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.942	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 2.60 → 3.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sterling Patick (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.75	20.4%	9.8%	220	-0.44	—	—	—
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	94
John Beller L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	19.7%	14.1%	2.3%	.326	4.35	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.13	4.16	170	91
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	88
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.61	19.4%	5.0%	215	+0.09	3.88	280	87
Evan Shawver L 2022 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	18.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.289	4.73	18.0%	4.0%	152	+0.41	3.79	281	87
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	85
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.8%	17.5%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	85
Jacob Bresnahan L 2024 · 4.95 FIP	19	SP	4.95	20.2%	14.1%	3.2%	.292	3.92	23.2%	11.1%	208	-1.03	3.03	277	83
Keegan Akin L 2017 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP	4.55	20.2%	12.5%	2.9%	.303	4.23	22.2%	10.7%	276	-0.32	2.62	743	83
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	83
Russell Smith L 2022 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	16.0%	10.4%	3.8%	.272	4.64	21.2%	7.8%	107	-0.50	4.00	175	83
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	82
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.26	30.7%	17.2%	124	-1.88	1.94	208	82
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	82
Caden Grice L 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	15.7%	2.2%	.282	5.05	17.9%	2.3%	83	+0.72	4.33	133	82
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	82
Andrew Sears L 2024 · 4.25 FIP	21	SP	4.25	19.6%	15.4%	1.6%	.248	4.06	19.9%	11.0%	177	-0.19	3.71	266	82
Tate Kuehner L 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	20.5%	13.9%	1.7%	.275	3.85	20.3%	7.9%	164	-0.23	3.83	268	81
Bodi Rascon L 2023 · 4.92 FIP	22	SP	4.92	17.5%	14.5%	2.7%	.264	5.66	11.5%	-8.3%	43	+0.74	4.18	218	81
Max Fried L 2016 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP	4.85	19.5%	13.0%	3.2%	.301	3.76	22.6%	13.4%	378	-1.09	2.51	1,448	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	66	20.5%	10.6%	1.20	4.81
Dan Miceli ('06)	3.5	64	20.6%	10.1%	1.19	4.48
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.6	51	21.6%	10.5%	1.24	4.71
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Jerry Don Gleaton ('79-'92, 2 WAR*)	2.2	64	19.4%*	10.2%*	1.05*	4.44*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*