Sterling Patick
P
Great Lakes Loons
+0.6
WAR
Age 21
LHP
6'1" / 180 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 2.8 · 2031
ERA4.39
FIP4.39
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.0%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%12.0%
IP85
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.8peak
2031
K†5060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | 12 | 11 | 32 | 138 | 31 | 11 | 1 | 16.0% | 9.8% | 0.9% | 4.55 | 3.47 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 25 | 21 | 92 | 402 | 108 | 39 | 5 | 19.9% | 11.8% | 1.6% | 4.00 | 3.81 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 2 | 2 | 10 | 38 | 14 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.86 | — | — |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | LAD | 16 | 16 | 85 | 360 | 79 | 36 | 10 | 22.0% | 10.0% | 2.7% | 4.39 | 4.39 | +0.8 |
| 2026 Total | 21 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 95 | 398 | 93 | 40 | 10 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.5% | 4.13 | 3.94 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | LAD | 20 | 20 | 112 | 471 | 108 | 43 | 13 | 22.9% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 4.26 | 4.18 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | LAD | 25 | 25 | 136 | 573 | 135 | 49 | 15 | 23.5% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 4.14 | 4.05 | +1.9 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | LAD | 28 | 28 | 155 | 655 | 157 | 55 | 17 | 24.0% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 4.04 | 3.97 | +2.3 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 31 | 31 | 169 | 714 | 174 | 59 | 19 | 24.3% | 8.2% | 2.6% | 3.97 | 3.92 | +2.6 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 32 | 32 | 176 | 744 | 182 | 61 | 20 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.6% | 3.93 | 3.90 | +2.8 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 32 | 32 | 175 | 738 | 181 | 60 | 20 | 24.6% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 3.92 | 3.91 | +2.8 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 32 | 32 | 174 | 736 | 180 | 61 | 20 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 3.93 | 3.93 | +2.7 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 31 | 31 | 170 | 719 | 175 | 60 | 20 | 24.4% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 3.96 | 3.98 | +2.5 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 30 | 30 | 165 | 698 | 169 | 59 | 20 | 24.2% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 4.01 | 4.04 | +2.4 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | LAD | 29 | 29 | 159 | 673 | 161 | 57 | 19 | 23.9% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.07 | 4.12 | +2.1 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | LAD | 28 | 28 | 153 | 646 | 153 | 56 | 19 | 23.7% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.15 | 4.20 | +1.9 |
| 2038 | 33 | MLB | LAD | 27 | 27 | 146 | 617 | 144 | 55 | 19 | 23.4% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 4.24 | 4.30 | +1.7 |
| 2039 | 34 | MLB | LAD | 25 | 25 | 139 | 586 | 135 | 53 | 18 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 4.34 | 4.41 | +1.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 39 | 34 | 134 | 578 | 116 | 65 | 8 | 20.1% | 11.2% | 1.4% | 3.97 | 3.57 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 58 | 51 | 200 | 865 | 174 | 97 | 12 | 20.1% | 11.2% | 1.4% | 3.97 | 3.57 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sterling Patick (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.39 | 22.0% | 10.0% | 2.7% | — | 4.06 | 23.5% | 14.9% | 403 | -0.33 | — | — | — |
| Brett Adcock L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.06 | 19.7% | 10.0% | 2.5% | .294 | 4.61 | 17.2% | 2.8% | 193 | +0.55 | 4.02 | 301 | 92 |
| Rylan Kaufman L 2027 · 4.67 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.67 | 19.3% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .305 | 4.75 | 18.9% | 4.5% | 131 | +0.08 | 4.01 | 212 | 89 |
| Joe Whitman L 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.91 | 18.6% | 9.9% | 2.1% | .303 | 3.79 | 20.4% | 10.8% | 131 | -0.12 | 3.78 | 234 | 89 |
| Greg Farone L 2028 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.30 | 20.3% | 10.4% | 2.9% | .301 | 3.20 | 24.3% | 17.7% | 12 | -1.10 | 3.20 | 117 | 89 |
| Keegan Akin L 2027 · 4.63 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.63 | 20.2% | 12.5% | 3.0% | .303 | 4.26 | 22.2% | 10.7% | 276 | -0.37 | 2.56 | 718 | 89 |
| Pete Hansen L 2028 · 4.18 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.18 | 20.1% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .283 | 3.80 | 17.8% | 10.1% | 266 | -0.38 | 3.75 | 378 | 87 |
| A.J. Block L 2028 · 3.73 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.73 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .262 | 5.75 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.02 | 3.65 | 203 | 87 |
| Hayden Mullins L 2028 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 3.1% | .288 | 3.85 | 24.0% | 10.3% | 102 | -0.55 | 3.85 | 191 | 87 |
| Jonathan Santucci L 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.63 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 118 | 87 |
| Brandon Finnegan L 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.50 | 21.3% | 12.8% | 2.9% | .287 | 5.02 | 18.5% | 6.5% | 273 | +0.52 | 3.85 | 489 | 86 |
| Will Johnston L 2028 · 3.96 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.96 | 24.8% | 11.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 4.18 | 23.6% | 9.9% | 70 | +0.22 | 3.96 | 162 | 86 |
| Josh Hader L 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.49 | 22.1% | 8.8% | 2.1% | .287 | 3.40 | 31.9% | 20.5% | 307 | -0.09 | 1.34 | 794 | 86 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2028 · 4.53 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.53 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .349 | 4.13 | 22.0% | 8.2% | 175 | -0.40 | 3.93 | 264 | 86 |
| Parker Messick L 2027 · 3.93 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.93 | 19.8% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .296 | 3.27 | 24.6% | 15.8% | 298 | -0.66 | 2.37 | 419 | 85 |
| Connelly Early L 2027 · 3.34 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.34 | 24.1% | 9.8% | 1.9% | .292 | 2.66 | 27.5% | 17.6% | 139 | -0.68 | 2.56 | 243 | 85 |
| Adam Seminaris L 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.95 | 22.7% | 8.3% | 3.1% | .357 | 3.74 | 18.2% | 9.3% | 230 | -0.21 | 3.01 | 453 | 85 |
| Dalton Sawyer L 2028 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.07 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 160 | 85 |
| Andrew Faulkner L 2027 · 4.76 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.76 | 18.0% | 12.8% | 2.9% | .290 | 4.07 | 17.7% | 6.6% | 142 | -0.69 | 3.72 | 252 | 85 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2029 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.62 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .263 | 4.28 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 219 | -0.34 | 2.32 | 304 | 85 |
| Ixan Henderson L 2027 · 3.76 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.76 | 18.1% | 11.1% | 1.4% | .280 | 3.27 | 20.4% | 9.9% | 132 | -0.49 | 3.27 | 236 | 84 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +2.6 | $23M | +$23M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +2.8 | $26M | +$25M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +2.8 | $27M | +$26M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +2.7 | $27M | +$22M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $8M | +2.6 | $26M | +$19M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $11M | +2.4 | $25M | +$14M |
| Totals | $26M | $154M | +$128M | ||