Nate Snead — OGILVIE

Nate Snead P Rocket City Trash Pandas

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 212 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.6 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.53

FIP4.53

K%19.9%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%11.6%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$45M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF—55

CTRL—45

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$8M	+$8M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$8M	+$8M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$8M	+$7M
2032	Arb-1	$5M	+1.2	$6M	+$4M
2033	Arb-2	$7M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$7M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$34M	+$26M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	23	23	105	430	89	28	13	100%	4.6	16.4%	7.2%	9.2%	3.6%	4.30	4.63	—
YTD	22	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	23	23	105	430	89	28	13	100%	4.6	16.4%	7.2%	9.2%	3.6%	4.30	4.63	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A+ RAW	LAA	7	7	35	136	39	6	1	100%	5.0	28.7%	4.4%	24.3%	0.7%	2.80	1.64	—
2026	22	AA RAW	LAA	16	16	69	294	50	22	12	100%	4.3	17.0%	7.5%	9.5%	4.1%	5.06	4.85	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	LAA	26	26	140	592	127	47	18	100%	5.4	21.5%	7.9%	13.6%	3.0%	4.40	4.33	+0.9
2028	24	MLB MLE	LAA	30	30	170	717	161	55	21	100%	5.7	22.4%	7.7%	14.7%	3.0%	4.28	4.20	+1.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	LAA	30	30	175	739	169	56	22	100%	5.8	22.9%	7.5%	15.4%	3.0%	4.19	4.13	+1.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	LAA	29	29	175	739	171	55	22	100%	6.0	23.2%	7.5%	15.7%	3.0%	4.14	4.11	+1.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	LAA	29	29	172	728	169	55	22	100%	5.9	23.2%	7.6%	15.6%	3.0%	4.14	4.14	+1.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	LAA	28	28	167	706	163	54	22	100%	6.0	23.0%	7.7%	15.3%	3.1%	4.19	4.23	+1.3
2033	29	MLB MLE	LAA	27	27	160	674	154	54	22	100%	5.9	22.8%	7.9%	14.9%	3.3%	4.29	4.36	+1.0
2034	30	MLB MLE	LAA	25	25	150	634	142	52	22	100%	6.0	22.4%	8.2%	14.2%	3.5%	4.44	4.54	+0.6
2035	31	MLB MLE	LAA	23	23	140	591	130	51	22	100%	6.1	22.1%	8.6%	13.5%	3.7%	4.62	4.74	+0.3
2036	32	MLB MLE	LAA	22	22	130	547	118	49	22	100%	5.9	21.6%	9.0%	12.6%	4.0%	4.83	4.96	-0.1
2037	33	MLB MLE	LAA	20	20	119	502	106	47	21	100%	5.9	21.1%	9.4%	11.7%	4.2%	5.06	5.21	-0.4
2027	23	MLB CTX	LAA	13	13	70	296	63	23	9	100%	5.4	21.5%	7.9%	13.6%	3.1%	4.43	4.36	+0.5
2028	24	MLB CTX	LAA	21	21	119	502	113	38	15	100%	5.7	22.4%	7.7%	14.7%	3.0%	4.31	4.23	+1.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	LAA	24	24	142	600	137	45	18	100%	5.9	22.9%	7.5%	15.4%	3.0%	4.22	4.16	+1.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	LAA	26	26	153	646	150	48	20	100%	5.9	23.2%	7.5%	15.7%	3.0%	4.17	4.14	+1.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	LAA	26	26	156	659	153	50	20	100%	6.0	23.2%	7.6%	15.6%	3.1%	4.17	4.17	+1.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	LAA	26	26	154	650	150	50	21	100%	5.9	23.0%	7.7%	15.3%	3.2%	4.22	4.26	+1.2
2033	29	MLB CTX	LAA	25	25	149	629	143	50	21	100%	6.0	22.8%	7.9%	14.9%	3.3%	4.33	4.40	+0.9
2034	30	MLB CTX	LAA	24	24	141	595	134	49	21	100%	5.9	22.4%	8.2%	14.2%	3.5%	4.48	4.58	+0.6
2035	31	MLB CTX	LAA	22	22	133	562	124	48	21	100%	6.0	22.1%	8.6%	13.5%	3.8%	4.66	4.78	+0.2
2036	32	MLB CTX	LAA	20	20	123	519	112	47	21	100%	6.2	21.6%	9.0%	12.6%	4.0%	4.87	5.00	-0.1
2037	33	MLB CTX	LAA	19	19	113	477	101	45	21	100%	5.9	21.1%	9.4%	11.7%	4.3%	5.11	5.26	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		246	246	1453	6137	1380	494	208	100%	5.9	22.5%	8.1%	14.4%	3.4%	4.43	4.08	+14.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	190	68	29	100%	5.9	22.5%	8.1%	14.4%	3.4%	4.43	4.08	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		23	23	105	430	71	31	16	100%	4.6	16.4%	7.2%	9.2%	3.6%	4.30	4.63	+9.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	44	200	822	135	59	30	100%	4.6	16.4%	7.2%	9.2%	3.6%	4.30	4.63	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nate Snead (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.53	19.9%	8.3%	3.1%	—	4.21	22.3%	14.6%	485	-0.32	—	—	—
Ricky DeVito R 2021 · 4.04 FIP	22	SP	4.04	22.8%	8.8%	3.2%	.309	4.65	21.5%	2.4%	151	+0.61	4.04	215	87
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	86
Chance Kirby R 2018 · 4.14 FIP	23	SP	4.14	17.8%	5.7%	3.3%	.298	5.61	14.2%	6.7%	166	+1.47	4.14	325	86
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	85
Jimmy Joyce R 2021 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP	3.78	25.0%	9.0%	3.0%	.341	4.03	20.4%	9.7%	242	+0.25	3.39	259	84
Curtis Taylor R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP	3.95	19.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.305	3.40	23.5%	13.7%	96	-0.55	2.58	408	83
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	82
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	82
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	81
Gus Varland R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	19.6%	8.7%	3.2%	.294	5.73	18.1%	5.7%	105	+1.44	2.39	330	81
Glenn Sparkman R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	23	SP	3.76	20.0%	11.6%	1.6%	.296	3.70	15.9%	10.9%	207	-0.06	3.56	363	80
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	22	SP	3.76	21.9%	9.8%	2.3%	.175	4.18	18.0%	7.5%	168	+0.42	3.51	330	80
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	80
Slade Cecconi R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	22	SP	4.05	19.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.300	4.66	19.4%	13.6%	397	+0.61	4.05	717	80
Andrés Machado R 2016 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	16.7%	6.7%	2.7%	.350	4.70	17.6%	8.8%	266	+0.68	3.63	530	79
Cooper Bradford R 2019 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP	4.99	18.0%	8.5%	4.2%	.393	4.99	17.6%	4.8%	106	+0.00	4.97	136	79
Drew Anderson R 2016 · 3.37 FIP	22	SP	3.37	21.1%	9.2%	1.6%	.295	4.71	16.3%	7.6%	273	+1.34	2.95	547	79
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.32	19.2%	6.3%	244	+0.98	4.34	382	79
Chris Clarke R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SP	4.59	15.8%	6.7%	3.6%	.340	3.85	16.2%	9.8%	241	-0.74	3.57	291	79
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.6	143	22.4%	8.0%	1.27	4.38
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12