Nate Snead

P Rocket City Trash Pandas

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 212 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.8 · 2029

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP40OGV rank#369ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX2 levels	23	23	105	4.30	3.82	20.7%	6.5%	—	K 16.4% · BB 7.2% · FIP 4.63
2027PROJ	23	MLBLAA	1	1	2	4.85	4.85	16.9%	7.7%	0.0
2028PROJ32% MLB	24	MLBLAA	6	6	32	4.72	4.64	19.1%	7.5%	0.3
2029PROJ52% MLB	25	MLBLAA	9	9	55	4.58	4.50	20.4%	7.3%	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$2M2034Arb-2$2M+1

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 8.7, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 78%

CompsRiley Thompson (age 23) · Matt Duffy (age 22) · Brandon Birdsell (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.85

FIP4.85

K%16.9%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%9.2%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$32M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.8M
2034	Arb-2	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.2M
2035	Arb-3	$2M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$12M	+$7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	105	430	89	28	13	100%	4.6	16.4%	7.2%	9.2%	3.6%	4.30	4.63	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	105	430	89	28	13	100%	4.6	16.4%	7.2%	9.2%	3.6%	4.30	4.63	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	105	430	89	28	13	100%	4.6	20.7%	6.5%	14.2%	3.0%	4.30	3.82	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	LAA	1	1	2	8	1	1	0	100%	2.0	16.9%	7.7%	9.2%	3.3%	4.85	4.85	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	LAA	18	18	100	423	81	32	14	100%	5.6	19.1%	7.5%	11.6%	3.3%	4.68	4.60	+0.9
2029	25	MLB MLE	LAA	18	18	106	446	91	33	14	100%	5.9	20.4%	7.3%	13.1%	3.2%	4.54	4.46	+1.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	LAA	19	19	112	475	101	35	15	100%	5.9	21.2%	7.3%	13.9%	3.2%	4.44	4.38	+1.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	LAA	18	18	109	460	98	34	15	100%	6.1	21.2%	7.4%	13.8%	3.3%	4.42	4.41	+1.3
2032	28	MLB MLE	LAA	17	17	104	439	93	33	15	100%	6.1	21.1%	7.6%	13.5%	3.4%	4.47	4.50	+1.1
2033	29	MLB MLE	LAA	16	16	97	408	85	32	14	100%	6.0	20.8%	7.8%	13.1%	3.5%	4.57	4.63	+0.9
2034	30	MLB MLE	LAA	15	15	88	370	76	30	14	100%	5.8	20.5%	8.1%	12.4%	3.7%	4.71	4.81	+0.6
2035	31	MLB MLE	LAA	13	13	78	331	67	28	13	100%	6.0	20.1%	8.4%	11.7%	3.9%	4.89	5.01	+0.3
2036	32	MLB MLE	LAA	12	12	69	292	57	26	12	100%	5.8	19.7%	8.8%	10.8%	4.2%	5.10	5.24	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	LAA	6	6	32	135	26	10	4	100%	5.3	19.1%	7.5%	11.6%	3.3%	4.72	4.64	+0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	LAA	9	9	55	232	47	17	8	100%	6.1	20.4%	7.3%	13.1%	3.3%	4.58	4.50	+0.6
2030	26	MLB CTX	LAA	12	12	74	312	66	23	10	100%	6.2	21.2%	7.3%	13.9%	3.3%	4.48	4.42	+0.9
2031	27	MLB CTX	LAA	13	13	80	338	72	25	11	100%	6.2	21.2%	7.4%	13.8%	3.3%	4.46	4.45	+0.9
2032	28	MLB CTX	LAA	14	14	83	350	74	26	12	100%	5.9	21.1%	7.6%	13.5%	3.4%	4.51	4.54	+0.9
2033	29	MLB CTX	LAA	13	13	80	338	70	26	12	100%	6.2	20.8%	7.8%	13.1%	3.6%	4.61	4.67	+0.7
2034	30	MLB CTX	LAA	12	12	75	317	65	26	12	100%	6.2	20.5%	8.1%	12.4%	3.8%	4.75	4.85	+0.5
2035	31	MLB CTX	LAA	12	12	69	291	59	25	12	100%	5.8	20.1%	8.4%	11.7%	4.0%	4.93	5.05	+0.3
2036	32	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	62	262	51	23	11	100%	6.2	19.7%	8.8%	10.8%	4.3%	5.15	5.29	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		102	102	610	2574	530	201	92	100%	6.0	20.6%	7.8%	12.8%	3.6%	4.67	4.32	+7.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	174	66	30	100%	6.0	20.6%	7.8%	12.8%	3.6%	4.67	4.32	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		23	23	105	430	71	31	16	100%	4.6	16.4%	7.2%	9.2%	3.6%	4.30	4.63	+7.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	44	200	822	135	59	30	100%	4.6	16.4%	7.2%	9.2%	3.6%	4.30	4.63	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 69 IPFIP 4.85 → 5.67 (+0.82)K% 17.0% → 13.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.01%	—	×0.810	13.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.48%	—	×1.100	8.23%
HR / BF /BF	4.08%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.90%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.85 → 5.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 35 IPFIP 1.64 → 2.38 (+0.74)K% 28.7% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.68%	—	×0.770	22.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.41%	—	×1.150	5.07%
HR / BF /BF	0.74%	÷1.000	×1.250	0.92%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.64 → 2.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nate Snead (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.3%	—	4.48	20.3%	12.9%	318	-0.37	—	—	—
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.48	340	93
Matt Duffy R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	18.5%	7.9%	2.8%	.274	9.34	22.0%	9.7%	17	+5.27	4.07	116	91
Brandon Birdsell R 2023 · 3.91 FIP	23	SP	3.91	17.1%	8.3%	2.2%	.266	4.02	19.6%	13.9%	154	+0.11	3.84	262	89
Logan Workman R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	23	SP	4.33	19.3%	7.4%	3.5%	.287	3.94	20.1%	12.8%	362	-0.39	3.82	579	88
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	88
Seth Shuman R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	18.9%	7.6%	4.4%	.297	4.48	15.4%	8.4%	109	-0.38	3.16	357	88
Jonathan Cannon R 2023 · 4.74 FIP	23	SP	4.74	16.1%	8.5%	3.5%	.311	4.71	18.0%	10.2%	420	-0.03	4.32	541	88
Kirk Saarloos R 2002 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP	4.39	14.5%	5.9%	3.2%	.310	4.14	10.4%	3.4%	233	-0.25	3.25	509	88
Marcel Rentería R 2018 · 4.13 FIP	23	SP	4.13	16.4%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	4.14	19.4%	8.5%	81	+0.01	3.91	194	88
Connor Noland R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP	3.98	14.8%	5.7%	2.6%	.290	4.26	16.4%	8.7%	340	+0.28	3.95	448	87
Thomas Farr R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	23	SP	5.05	18.0%	9.8%	4.1%	.340	5.31	12.4%	2.9%	280	+0.26	5.05	423	87
Austin Peterson R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP	4.31	15.0%	6.3%	3.1%	.335	3.49	19.8%	14.1%	408	-0.82	2.69	525	87
Shelby Lackey R 2019 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP	4.45	18.2%	10.0%	2.9%	.323	3.98	20.6%	5.7%	65	-0.47	2.92	175	86
Mason Erla R 2022 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	14.9%	6.0%	2.7%	.309	4.89	14.8%	5.2%	124	+0.78	3.11	206	86
Grant Rogers R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	17.4%	7.2%	2.8%	.297	4.45	12.8%	6.3%	280	+0.37	3.90	392	86
Derek Casey R 2019 · 5.30 FIP	23	SP	5.30	13.6%	8.5%	4.2%	.311	2.96	22.3%	13.2%	58	-2.34	2.96	180	86
Wil Jensen R 2021 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP	4.37	18.9%	6.9%	3.6%	.300	4.37	21.0%	11.3%	266	+0.00	3.48	368	85
Jose Acevedo R 2001 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.3%	7.7%	4.1%	.280	4.83	16.9%	11.0%	208	-0.10	3.43	368	85
Kyle Luckham R 2023 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	14.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.286	4.26	13.8%	6.8%	376	-0.14	3.78	501	85
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	85

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.8	95	20.2%	7.7%	1.34	4.64
Mark Leiter ('90-'01, 5 WAR*)	5.9	118	20.7%*	7.8%*	1.36*	4.61*
Hank Fischer ('62-'67, -1 WAR*)	2.7	91	19.8%*	8.2%*	1.33*	5.07*
Chase Anderson ('24)	5.5	101	19.7%	8.1%	1.48	4.41
Willie Blair ('90-'01, 1 WAR*)	6.4	106	16.4%*	7.2%*	1.32*	4.86*
Drew Smyly ('24)	5.7	104	23.1%	7.7%	1.49	4.20
Drew Hutchison ('22)	2.9	84	19.2%	8.2%	1.29	4.89