Brandon Birdsell

P Iowa Cubs

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 240 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.4 · 2027

Overview

AAAPROSPECTPre-ArbFA 2033

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1232ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	MIX2 levels	24	24	107	2.77	3.28	21.9%	7.2%	—	K 17.1% · BB 8.3% · FIP 3.91
2024	24	MIX2 levels	27	26	136	3.91	3.13	23.5%	5.3%	—	K 19.6% · BB 5.2% · FIP 3.84
2025	25	MIX3 levels	8	8	34	2.94	4.23	23.1%	9.1%	—	K 19.4% · BB 9.0% · FIP 5.29
2026	26	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	27	MLBCHC	1	1	6	4.11	4.11	20.2%	5.0%	0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	28	MLBCHC	4	4	25	4.12	4.15	20.4%	5.6%	0.3
2029PROJ59% MLB	29	MLBCHC	6	6	33	4.22	4.29	20.3%	6.1%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.0First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$3M2031Ext$5M2032Ext$7M

CompsRyan Watson (age 25) · Cole De Vries (age 27) · Brian Edgington (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111103vR 95

ERA4.11

FIP4.11

K%20.2%

BB%5.0%

K-BB%15.2%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$1M	+$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	107	443	97	32	9	100%	4.5	17.1%	8.3%	8.9%	2.2%	2.77	3.91	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	107	443	97	32	9	100%	4.5	21.9%	7.2%	14.7%	2.0%	2.77	3.28	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	136	571	134	30	14	96%	5.0	19.6%	5.2%	14.4%	3.2%	3.91	3.84	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	136	571	134	30	14	96%	5.0	19.6%	5.2%	14.4%	3.2%	3.91	3.84	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	26	136	571	134	30	14	96%	5.0	23.5%	5.3%	18.2%	2.5%	3.91	3.13	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	8	8	34	143	33	13	5	100%	4.2	19.4%	9.0%	10.3%	4.9%	2.94	5.29	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	8	8	34	143	33	13	5	100%	4.2	19.4%	9.0%	10.3%	4.9%	2.94	5.29	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	8	8	34	143	33	13	5	100%	4.2	23.1%	9.1%	14.0%	3.5%	2.94	4.23	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	CHC	1	1	6	25	5	1	1	100%	6.0	20.2%	5.0%	15.2%	3.1%	4.11	4.11	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	CHC	10	10	58	244	50	14	8	100%	5.8	20.4%	5.6%	14.8%	3.2%	4.19	4.22	+0.8
2029	29	MLB MLE	CHC	9	9	55	233	47	14	8	100%	6.1	20.3%	6.1%	14.3%	3.3%	4.29	4.36	+0.7
2028	28	MLB CTX	CHC	4	4	25	106	21	6	3	100%	6.2	20.4%	5.6%	14.8%	3.1%	4.12	4.15	+0.3
2029	29	MLB CTX	CHC	6	6	33	139	28	8	4	100%	5.5	20.3%	6.1%	14.3%	3.2%	4.22	4.29	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	10	57	241	49	14	8	100%	5.7	20.4%	5.9%	14.5%	3.1%	4.18	3.85	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	172	49	28	100%	6.0	20.4%	5.9%	14.5%	3.1%	4.18	3.85	+3.7
Career	—	MLE		59	58	277	1157	215	79	35	98%	4.7	18.6%	6.8%	11.8%	3.0%	3.35	4.05	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	42	200	836	156	57	25	98%	4.7	18.6%	6.8%	11.8%	3.0%	3.35	4.05	+2.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAIowa Cubs · 19 IPFIP 5.21 → 5.29 (+0.08)K% 22.5% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.50%	—	×0.860	19.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×0.900	9.00%
HR / BF /BF	5.00%	÷1.125	×1.100	4.89%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 125).

Result: FIP 5.21 → 5.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+South Bend Cubs · 9 IPFIP 3.77 → 4.51 (+0.75)K% 21.1% → 16.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.05%	—	×0.770	16.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.89%	—	×1.150	9.08%
HR / BF /BF	2.63%	÷1.106	×1.250	2.97%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 121).

Result: FIP 3.77 → 4.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Cubs · 6 IPFIP 1.75 → 2.76 (+1.01)K% 28.0% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.00%	—	×0.680	19.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.00%	—	×1.250	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.868	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 74).

Result: FIP 1.75 → 2.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AATennessee Smokies · 74 IPFIP 3.63 → 4.75 (+1.11)K% 21.1% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.10%	—	×0.810	17.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.22%	—	×1.100	4.64%
HR / BF /BF	3.25%	÷0.854	×1.200	4.56%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 71).

Result: FIP 3.63 → 4.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAIowa Cubs · 61 IPFIP 2.54 → 2.78 (+0.24)K% 26.2% → 22.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.24%	—	×0.860	22.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.46%	—	×0.900	5.82%
HR / BF /BF	1.52%	÷1.079	×1.100	1.55%

Result: FIP 2.54 → 2.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+South Bend Cubs · 80 IPFIP 3.01 → 3.62 (+0.61)K% 21.7% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.74%	—	×0.770	16.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.39%	—	×1.150	9.64%
HR / BF /BF	1.24%	÷1.197	×1.250	1.30%

Result: FIP 3.01 → 3.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AATennessee Smokies · 27 IPFIP 4.01 → 4.66 (+0.66)K% 22.3% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.31%	—	×0.810	18.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.13%	—	×1.100	4.55%
HR / BF /BF	4.13%	÷1.082	×1.200	4.58%

Result: FIP 4.01 → 4.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brandon Birdsell (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.29	20.4%	14.5%	113	+0.18	—	—	—
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	80
Cole De Vries R 2012 · 4.73 FIP	27	SP	4.73	15.5%	4.8%	4.2%	.254	7.58	15.8%	4.0%	15	+2.85	4.73	103	79
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	78
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	77
Dustin Crenshaw R 2016 · 3.24 FIP	27	SP	3.24	16.4%	2.7%	2.2%	.280	3.67	13.9%	11.4%	168	+0.43	3.24	238	76
Bryan Evans R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	28	SP	4.13	17.8%	6.2%	3.2%	.250	4.60	19.7%	14.9%	132	+0.47	3.89	231	75
Todd Redmond R 2013 · 4.14 FIP	28	SP-	4.14	23.5%	6.5%	4.0%	.266	3.57	17.0%	10.1%	170	-0.57	3.21	247	75
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	75
Jason Forjet R 2016 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	15.9%	5.5%	3.7%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	197	75
Cole Johnson R 2016 · 3.61 FIP	27	SP	3.61	14.0%	4.8%	2.0%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	101	74
Yohan Pino R 2014 · 3.84 FIP	30	SP	3.84	19.4%	5.4%	3.1%	.312	4.45	17.1%	11.9%	133	+0.61	3.84	193	74
Christian Scott R 2024 · 4.68 FIP	25	SP	4.68	23.9%	6.3%	5.1%	.249	3.48	27.9%	18.7%	124	-1.20	2.56	358	72
Connor Grey R 2021 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	22.1%	8.1%	2.8%	.286	4.37	16.2%	7.0%	104	+0.55	2.70	461	71
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.67	22.0%	14.9%	279	+0.48	3.19	310	71
Rolando Valdez R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	29	SP	4.07	13.3%	5.9%	2.4%	.301	3.78	13.2%	7.9%	176	-0.29	3.06	258	71
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	71
Braydon Tucker R 2024 · 3.25 FIP	25	SP-	3.25	18.3%	7.1%	1.5%	.291	4.70	15.3%	6.3%	208	+1.45	3.25	314	69
Stephen Fife R 2013 · 3.94 FIP	26	SP	3.94	17.4%	7.0%	2.6%	.330	3.11	18.8%	10.7%	27	-0.83	3.11	264	69
Brady Rodgers R 2018 · 4.03 FIP	27	SP	4.03	15.0%	6.0%	2.6%	.333	5.44	14.7%	5.7%	49	+1.41	1.98	354	69
Jeremy Kehrt R 2015 · 3.37 FIP	29	SP	3.37	15.2%	5.3%	1.6%	.297	4.25	12.1%	3.9%	143	+0.88	3.37	262	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	20.3%	5.5%	1.24	4.19
Casey Fien ('17)	1.4	58	21.0%	5.1%	1.46	4.42
Dale Thayer ('15)	1.3	63	20.4%	6.3%	1.07	3.47
Tim Crews ('87-'92, 3 WAR*)	2.1	71	20.8%*	6.2%*	1.09*	4.11*
Junichi Tazawa ('18)	2.0	49	22.2%	6.5%	1.12	4.12
Donn Pall ('88-'98, 3 WAR*)	2.5	63	17.1%*	6.2%*	1.20*	3.86*
Cris Carpenter ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.1	69	18.3%*	7.4%*	1.15*	4.29*