Brandon Birdsell

Brandon Birdsell P Iowa Cubs

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 240 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.4 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113104vR 96

ERA4.18

FIP4.18

K%19.3%

BB%4.9%

K-BB%14.4%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$7M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD6065

K†4545

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$6M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	107	443	97	32	9	100%	4.5	17.1%	8.3%	8.9%	2.2%	2.77	3.91	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	107	443	97	32	9	100%	4.5	17.1%	8.3%	8.9%	2.2%	2.77	3.91	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	107	443	97	32	9	100%	4.5	21.9%	7.2%	14.7%	2.0%	2.77	3.28	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	136	571	134	30	14	96%	5.0	19.3%	5.2%	14.1%	3.2%	3.91	3.87	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	136	571	134	30	14	96%	5.0	19.3%	5.2%	14.1%	3.2%	3.91	3.87	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	26	136	571	134	30	14	96%	5.0	23.5%	5.3%	18.2%	2.5%	3.91	3.13	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	8	8	34	143	33	13	5	100%	4.2	18.7%	9.0%	9.7%	4.9%	2.94	5.35	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	8	8	34	143	33	13	5	100%	4.2	18.7%	9.0%	9.7%	4.9%	2.94	5.35	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	8	8	34	143	33	13	5	100%	4.2	23.1%	9.1%	14.0%	3.5%	2.94	4.23	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	CHC	1	1	5	21	4	1	1	100%	5.0	19.3%	4.9%	14.4%	3.1%	4.18	4.18	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CHC	20	20	120	508	99	26	16	100%	6.0	19.5%	5.2%	14.3%	3.2%	4.21	4.22	+1.0
2028	28	MLB MLE	CHC	19	19	117	493	97	27	16	100%	6.1	19.6%	5.5%	14.0%	3.2%	4.27	4.31	+0.8
2029	29	MLB MLE	CHC	19	19	111	470	92	28	16	100%	5.9	19.5%	5.9%	13.6%	3.4%	4.37	4.44	+0.6
2030	30	MLB MLE	CHC	17	17	105	442	85	28	16	100%	6.2	19.2%	6.2%	13.0%	3.6%	4.51	4.61	+0.4
2031	31	MLB MLE	CHC	16	16	98	412	77	27	16	100%	6.1	18.8%	6.6%	12.2%	3.8%	4.69	4.81	+0.1
2032	32	MLB MLE	CHC	15	15	90	381	70	27	15	100%	6.0	18.3%	7.0%	11.3%	4.0%	4.90	5.04	-0.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	CHC	8	8	51	215	42	11	7	100%	6.4	19.5%	5.2%	14.3%	3.0%	4.15	4.16	+0.4
2028	28	MLB CTX	CHC	12	12	73	308	60	17	10	100%	6.1	19.6%	5.5%	14.0%	3.1%	4.20	4.24	+0.5
2029	29	MLB CTX	CHC	14	14	81	342	67	20	11	100%	5.8	19.5%	5.9%	13.6%	3.3%	4.30	4.37	+0.4
2030	30	MLB CTX	CHC	14	14	84	355	68	22	12	100%	6.0	19.2%	6.2%	13.0%	3.4%	4.44	4.54	+0.3
2031	31	MLB CTX	CHC	14	14	83	350	66	23	13	100%	5.9	18.8%	6.6%	12.2%	3.7%	4.61	4.73	+0.1
2032	32	MLB CTX	CHC	13	13	79	334	61	23	13	100%	6.1	18.3%	7.0%	11.3%	3.9%	4.82	4.96	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		75	75	451	1903	364	117	65	100%	6.0	19.1%	6.1%	13.0%	3.4%	4.44	4.14	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	162	52	29	100%	6.0	19.1%	6.1%	13.0%	3.4%	4.44	4.14	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		59	58	277	1157	212	79	35	98%	4.7	18.4%	6.8%	11.5%	3.0%	3.35	4.07	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	42	200	836	154	57	25	98%	4.7	18.4%	6.8%	11.5%	3.0%	3.35	4.07	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brandon Birdsell (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.18	19.3%	4.9%	3.1%	—	4.32	19.5%	14.0%	348	+0.14	—	—	—
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	80
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	79
Wilmer Font R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	26	SP	3.82	17.0%	4.9%	2.8%	.277	3.84	26.2%	19.1%	263	+0.02	2.76	345	79
Zebby Matthews R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	20.0%	4.1%	3.7%	.290	3.98	22.8%	17.1%	404	+0.02	3.18	510	77
Jason Forjet R 2016 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	15.9%	5.5%	3.7%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	197	77
Barry Enright R 2015 · 3.42 FIP	29	SP	3.42	15.9%	4.4%	2.0%	.306	3.95	13.3%	9.2%	226	+0.53	3.26	315	76
Mat Latos R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	20.2%	6.3%	2.6%	.306	5.16	14.5%	4.4%	128	+1.56	3.60	244	76
Dustin Crenshaw R 2016 · 3.24 FIP	27	SP	3.24	16.4%	2.7%	2.2%	.280	3.67	13.9%	11.4%	168	+0.43	3.24	238	76
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	75
Connor Noland R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP	3.98	14.8%	5.7%	2.6%	.290	4.32	15.8%	8.2%	335	+0.34	3.98	443	75
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	75
Engert Garcia R 2023 · 3.13 FIP	23	SP-	3.13	16.9%	5.5%	1.4%	.270	4.81	14.9%	-5.3%	79	+1.68	3.13	125	74
Bryan Evans R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	28	SP	4.13	17.8%	6.2%	3.2%	.250	4.60	19.7%	14.9%	132	+0.47	3.89	231	74
Chase Whitley R 2015 · 3.53 FIP	26	SP	3.53	18.1%	7.4%	1.8%	.275	3.52	18.5%	12.0%	123	-0.01	3.09	159	73
Connor McCullough R 2023 · 4.66 FIP	23	SP	4.66	21.8%	6.4%	4.7%	.280	4.09	19.9%	12.5%	148	-0.57	3.68	261	73
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.50	21.3%	14.6%	262	+0.31	3.15	293	73
Brandon Young R 2023 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP	4.49	17.9%	6.3%	3.8%	.338	3.90	20.6%	13.1%	353	-0.59	3.08	476	73
Whit Mayberry R 2016 · 3.54 FIP	26	SP-	3.54	16.2%	4.3%	2.3%	.267	2.64	12.3%	7.7%	11	-0.90	2.64	140	73
Trent Baker R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	24	SP	3.88	16.3%	6.0%	2.5%	.279	4.28	19.1%	10.1%	247	+0.40	3.88	490	71
Allan Winans R 2022 · 3.30 FIP	26	SP	3.30	19.4%	6.3%	1.9%	.299	3.59	19.6%	13.6%	373	+0.29	2.59	541	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	100	19.2%	5.9%	1.34	4.44
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38
Yonny Chirinos ('24)	1.7	84	18.9%	6.6%	1.38	4.37
Wade LeBlanc ('21)	2.4	81	18.0%	6.0%	1.67	4.61
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13