Brandon Birdsell
P
Iowa Cubs
+0.4
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'2" / 240 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.40
FIP4.40
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.3%
BB%7.9%
K-BB%13.4%
IP53
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 24 | 24 | 107 | 443 | 97 | 32 | 9 | 17.1% | 8.3% | 2.2% | 2.77 | 3.91 | +1.7 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 27 | 26 | 136 | 571 | 134 | 30 | 14 | 19.9% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 3.91 | 3.93 | +2.1 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 8 | 8 | 34 | 143 | 33 | 13 | 5 | 19.8% | 10.5% | 4.9% | 2.94 | 5.42 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 53 | — | 53 | 225 | 48 | 18 | 7 | 21.3% | 7.9% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 48 | 18 | 7 | 21.5% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 52 | — | 52 | 220 | 47 | 18 | 7 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 3.2% | 4.41 | 4.42 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 46 | 18 | 7 | 21.6% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 4.44 | 4.46 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 49 | — | 49 | 208 | 45 | 18 | 7 | 21.4% | 8.4% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.52 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 48 | — | 48 | 201 | 43 | 17 | 7 | 21.2% | 8.6% | 3.3% | 4.55 | 4.59 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 40 | 17 | 7 | 20.9% | 8.7% | 3.4% | 4.63 | 4.68 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 44 | — | 44 | 184 | 38 | 16 | 6 | 20.6% | 8.9% | 3.5% | 4.72 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 41 | — | 41 | 175 | 35 | 16 | 6 | 20.3% | 9.1% | 3.6% | 4.82 | 4.89 | +0.0 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 39 | — | 39 | 165 | 33 | 15 | 6 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.7% | 4.93 | 5.01 | -0.0 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | CHC | 36 | — | 36 | 154 | 30 | 15 | 6 | 19.4% | 9.6% | 3.8% | 5.06 | 5.14 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 59 | 58 | 277 | 1157 | 217 | 84 | 35 | 18.8% | 7.2% | 3.1% | 3.35 | 4.11 | +3.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 42 | 200 | 836 | 157 | 61 | 25 | 18.8% | 7.2% | 3.1% | 3.35 | 4.11 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brandon Birdsell (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.40 | 21.3% | 7.9% | 3.1% | — | 4.43 | 21.6% | 13.4% | 156 | +0.03 | — | — | — |
| Bryan Shaw R 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.91 | 20.4% | 6.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 3.53 | 23.3% | 15.0% | 198 | -0.38 | 2.86 | 596 | 88 |
| John Brebbia R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.15 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.3% | .346 | 3.23 | 27.6% | 21.4% | 215 | -0.92 | 2.96 | 523 | 87 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2026 · 3.11 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.11 | 19.1% | 4.5% | 1.9% | .262 | 4.36 | 16.9% | 9.8% | 35 | +1.25 | 3.11 | 133 | 86 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.84 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 206 | 86 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2027 · 3.75 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.75 | 17.6% | 6.3% | 2.4% | .246 | 3.68 | 22.7% | 14.4% | 97 | -0.07 | 3.25 | 160 | 86 |
| Ryan Halstead R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.04 | 18.0% | 6.7% | 2.9% | .296 | 3.25 | 16.1% | 8.7% | 64 | -0.79 | 3.06 | 222 | 86 |
| Ryan Kelly R 2027 · 3.50 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.50 | 20.3% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .241 | 3.22 | 20.8% | 14.2% | 43 | -0.28 | 2.49 | 131 | 86 |
| Joe Broussard R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.82 | 23.5% | 7.9% | 3.1% | .316 | 3.73 | 21.1% | 12.0% | 95 | -0.09 | 2.62 | 304 | 85 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2028 · 3.91 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.91 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .348 | 3.55 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.36 | 2.38 | 160 | 85 |
| Seth Frankoff R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.02 | 19.6% | 7.4% | 3.0% | .312 | 4.24 | 20.0% | 11.3% | 177 | +0.22 | 2.88 | 263 | 85 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.85 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.24 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 116 | +0.39 | 3.85 | 149 | 85 |
| Ryan Garton R 2026 · 3.07 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.07 | 21.8% | 6.3% | 1.8% | .325 | 3.95 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 175 | +0.88 | 3.07 | 307 | 85 |
| Bryan Evans R 2028 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.19 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 3.3% | .250 | 4.61 | 19.7% | 14.9% | 132 | +0.42 | 3.86 | 231 | 84 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2028 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 84 |
| Shawn Armstrong R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.33 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .282 | 3.20 | 26.9% | 17.2% | 144 | -1.13 | 1.79 | 618 | 84 |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.86 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 3.0% | .242 | 2.97 | 25.1% | 15.7% | 62 | -0.89 | 2.97 | 167 | 84 |
| Ryan Tepera R 2027 · 4.05 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.05 | 21.1% | 7.2% | 3.3% | .174 | 3.39 | 24.7% | 16.0% | 206 | -0.66 | 2.27 | 445 | 84 |
| Trevin Michael R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.45 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.2% | .256 | 3.82 | 23.0% | 13.9% | 56 | -0.63 | 2.68 | 149 | 84 |
| Joe Navilhon R 2026 · 3.22 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.22 | 20.5% | 7.7% | 1.6% | .322 | 4.28 | 23.4% | 16.7% | 99 | +1.06 | 2.25 | 273 | 83 |
| Austin Brice R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.24 | 21.3% | 5.8% | 4.0% | .274 | 4.23 | 22.9% | 12.6% | 111 | -0.01 | 3.45 | 542 | 83 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.4M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.0M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.6M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.3M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.5M |
| Totals | $5M | $5M | +$0.6M | ||