Brandon Birdsell
P
Iowa Cubs
Age 26
RHP
6'2" / 240 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 59 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115106vR 97
ERA4.22
FIP4.22
K%20.0%
BB%5.5%
K-BB%14.5%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 107 | 443 | 97 | 32 | 9 | 100% | 4.5 | 17.1% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 2.0% | 2.77 | 3.78 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 107 | 443 | 97 | 32 | 9 | 100% | 4.5 | 21.9% | 7.2% | 14.7% | 2.0% | 2.77 | 3.28 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 26 | 136 | 571 | 134 | 30 | 14 | 96% | 5.0 | 19.9% | 5.6% | 14.2% | 3.6% | 3.91 | 4.13 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 26 | 136 | 571 | 134 | 30 | 14 | 96% | 5.0 | 23.5% | 5.3% | 18.2% | 2.5% | 3.91 | 3.13 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 8 | 8 | 34 | 143 | 33 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 4.2 | 19.8% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 4.4% | 2.94 | 5.17 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 8 | 8 | 34 | 143 | 33 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 4.2 | 23.1% | 9.1% | 14.0% | 3.5% | 2.94 | 4.23 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 10 | 10 | 60 | 251 | 50 | 14 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.0% | 5.5% | 14.5% | 3.2% | 4.22 | 4.22 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 10 | 10 | 59 | 247 | 50 | 15 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.3% | 6.0% | 14.4% | 3.2% | 4.25 | 4.27 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 9 | 9 | 57 | 240 | 49 | 15 | 8 | 100% | 6.3 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 14.1% | 3.3% | 4.32 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 4 | 4 | 25 | 106 | 21 | 6 | 3 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.3% | 6.0% | 14.4% | 3.2% | 4.27 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 6 | 6 | 36 | 152 | 31 | 10 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 14.1% | 3.3% | 4.34 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 10 | 10 | 60 | 255 | 52 | 16 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.4% | 6.2% | 14.2% | 3.3% | 4.31 | 3.96 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 172 | 53 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.4% | 6.2% | 14.2% | 3.3% | 4.31 | 3.96 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 59 | 58 | 277 | 1157 | 217 | 84 | 36 | 98% | 4.7 | 18.8% | 7.2% | 11.6% | 3.1% | 3.35 | 4.13 | +4.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 42 | 200 | 836 | 157 | 61 | 26 | 98% | 4.7 | 18.8% | 7.2% | 11.6% | 3.1% | 3.35 | 4.13 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brandon Birdsell (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.22 | 20.0% | 5.5% | 3.2% | — | 4.31 | 20.4% | 14.2% | 115 | +0.09 | — | — | — |
| Markus Solbach R 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.61 | 16.9% | 6.1% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.76 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 111 | +1.15 | 3.25 | 391 | 81 |
| Andy Ferguson R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.57 | 22.3% | 5.7% | 3.0% | .262 | 3.13 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 33 | -0.44 | 3.13 | 137 | 80 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 79 |
| Wilmer Font R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.55 | 17.0% | 4.9% | 2.3% | .277 | 3.87 | 26.2% | 19.1% | 263 | +0.32 | 2.78 | 345 | 78 |
| Garrett McMillan R 2024 · 3.54 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.54 | 18.9% | 4.3% | 2.7% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 118 | 77 |
| Jason Forjet R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.39 | 15.9% | 5.5% | 3.5% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 197 | 77 |
| Mat Latos R 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.68 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .306 | 5.21 | 14.5% | 4.4% | 128 | +1.53 | 3.68 | 244 | 77 |
| Kumar Rocker R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.16 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.95 | 230 | 76 |
| Tyson Hardin R 2024 · 3.45 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.45 | 23.4% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.47 | 177 | 75 |
| Chase Whitley R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.52 | 18.1% | 7.4% | 1.8% | .275 | 3.52 | 18.5% | 12.0% | 123 | -0.00 | 3.11 | 159 | 75 |
| Barry Enright R 2029 · 3.26 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.26 | 15.9% | 4.4% | 1.7% | .306 | 3.78 | 13.3% | 9.2% | 226 | +0.52 | 3.11 | 315 | 75 |
| Christian Scott R 2025 · 4.64 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.64 | 24.2% | 6.8% | 5.0% | .249 | 3.95 | 27.5% | 17.8% | 68 | -0.69 | 2.65 | 302 | 74 |
| Bryan Evans R 2028 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 2.8% | .250 | 4.75 | 19.7% | 14.9% | 132 | +0.81 | 3.72 | 231 | 74 |
| Brett Sears R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.56 | 23.9% | 5.8% | 3.2% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 167 | 74 |
| Brandon White R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.08 | 24.9% | 6.2% | 4.2% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.90 | 264 | 74 |
| Dustin Crenshaw R 2027 · 3.34 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.34 | 16.4% | 2.7% | 2.3% | .280 | 3.93 | 13.9% | 11.4% | 168 | +0.59 | 3.34 | 238 | 73 |
| Blake Wehunt R 2025 · 3.98 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.98 | 26.8% | 8.1% | 3.9% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 209 | 73 |
| Zack Wheeler R 2027 · 4.75 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.75 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .327 | 3.09 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.66 | 2.31 | 1,536 | 73 |
| Hunter Dobbins R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.33 | 17.6% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 463 | 73 |
| Allan Winans R 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.35 | 19.4% | 6.3% | 2.0% | .299 | 3.63 | 20.6% | 13.7% | 373 | +0.28 | 2.57 | 541 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 58 | 20.3% | 6.0% | 1.24 | 4.26 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Eli Morgan ('24) | 4 | 66 | 23.8% | 6.4% | 1.46 | 3.97 |
| Austin Pruitt ('23) | 5 | 61 | 16.9% | 5.6% | 1.22 | 4.45 |
| Jarlín García ('22) | 5 | 61 | 19.6% | 7.8% | 1.33 | 3.79 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |