Connor Noland — OGILVIE

Connor Noland P Iowa Cubs

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 215 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.0 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION69 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.51

FIP4.51

K%16.2%

BB%7.3%

K-BB%8.8%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 82 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5055

CMD5055

K†4040

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Arb-1	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-3	$1.0M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	24	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	24	23	108	447	86	22	11	96%	4.5	14.8%	5.7%	9.2%	2.6%	4.08	3.98	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	24	23	108	447	86	22	11	96%	4.5	14.8%	5.7%	9.2%	2.6%	4.08	3.98	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	24	23	108	447	86	22	11	96%	4.5	19.2%	4.9%	14.3%	2.5%	4.08	3.44	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	25	134	565	116	36	14	96%	5.2	16.8%	6.5%	10.3%	2.8%	3.49	4.04	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	25	134	565	116	36	14	96%	5.2	16.8%	6.5%	10.3%	2.8%	3.49	4.04	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	25	134	565	116	36	14	96%	5.2	20.5%	6.4%	14.2%	2.5%	3.49	3.53	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	27	22	133	579	115	55	13	81%	4.9	16.5%	8.5%	7.9%	2.2%	4.07	4.00	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	27	22	133	579	115	55	13	81%	4.9	16.5%	8.5%	7.9%	2.2%	4.07	4.00	—
2025	26	AAA RAW	Iowa Cubs	27	22	133	579	115	55	13	81%	4.9	19.9%	9.5%	10.4%	2.2%	4.07	3.88	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	18	14	69	304	46	28	12	78%	3.8	12.6%	8.3%	4.3%	4.3%	5.77	5.47	—
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	18	14	69	304	46	28	12	78%	3.8	12.6%	8.3%	4.3%	4.3%	5.77	5.47	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AAA RAW	CHC	18	14	69	304	46	28	12	78%	3.8	15.1%	9.2%	5.9%	3.9%	5.77	5.16	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	CHC	2	2	13	55	9	4	1	100%	6.5	16.2%	7.3%	8.8%	2.7%	4.51	4.51	+0.1
ROS	27	MLB CTX	CHC	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	16.2%	7.3%	8.8%	2.6%	4.46	4.46	+0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	82	359	55	32	13	—	—	15.3%	8.9%	6.4%	3.8%	5.57	5.32	-0.5
FULL	27	MLB A+C	CHC	—	—	1	5	1	0	0	—	—	16.2%	7.3%	8.8%	2.6%	4.46	4.07	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	CHC	26	26	154	650	108	49	18	100%	5.9	16.6%	7.5%	9.1%	2.8%	4.53	4.57	+0.6
2028	29	MLB MLE	CHC	25	25	147	621	104	48	18	100%	5.9	16.8%	7.8%	9.0%	3.0%	4.60	4.67	+0.4
2029	30	MLB MLE	CHC	23	23	138	584	97	47	18	100%	6.0	16.7%	8.1%	8.6%	3.2%	4.73	4.83	+0.1
2030	31	MLB MLE	CHC	22	22	129	545	89	46	18	100%	5.9	16.4%	8.4%	8.0%	3.4%	4.90	5.02	-0.2
2031	32	MLB MLE	CHC	20	20	119	504	80	44	18	100%	6.0	16.0%	8.8%	7.2%	3.6%	5.11	5.24	-0.5
2027	28	MLB CTX	CHC	11	11	65	274	46	21	7	100%	5.9	16.6%	7.5%	9.1%	2.7%	4.47	4.51	+0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	CHC	14	14	87	367	62	29	10	100%	6.2	16.8%	7.8%	9.0%	2.8%	4.54	4.61	+0.2
2029	30	MLB CTX	CHC	16	16	97	410	68	33	12	100%	6.1	16.7%	8.1%	8.6%	3.0%	4.66	4.76	+0.1
2030	31	MLB CTX	CHC	17	17	101	426	70	36	14	100%	5.9	16.4%	8.4%	8.0%	3.3%	4.83	4.95	-0.1
2031	32	MLB CTX	CHC	17	17	100	422	67	37	15	100%	5.9	16.0%	8.8%	7.2%	3.5%	5.04	5.17	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		75	75	451	1905	314	156	59	100%	6.0	16.5%	8.2%	8.3%	3.1%	4.73	4.45	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	139	69	26	100%	6.0	16.5%	8.2%	8.3%	3.1%	4.73	4.45	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		95	84	443	1895	295	137	53	88%	4.7	15.6%	7.2%	8.3%	2.8%	4.16	4.24	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	38	200	855	133	62	24	88%	4.7	15.6%	7.2%	8.3%	2.8%	4.16	4.24	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Connor Noland (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.51	16.2%	7.3%	2.7%	—	4.69	16.7%	8.9%	439	+0.18	—	—	—
David Hale R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	16.2%	6.8%	2.8%	.343	4.11	13.8%	8.1%	251	-0.04	3.30	493	88
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	87
David Phelps R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	16.0%	6.8%	2.4%	.299	2.82	29.9%	20.6%	142	-1.12	2.50	373	84
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	83
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	83
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	82
Brad Peacock R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP-	3.97	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.45	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.52	2.97	533	80
Gabriel Arias R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	25	SP	4.42	13.1%	7.2%	2.8%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	195	80
Brannon Easterling R 2017 · 4.40 FIP	26	SP-	4.40	12.7%	8.2%	2.4%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	334	80
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	28	SP	4.07	15.5%	9.1%	2.0%	.306	4.73	9.0%	-1.2%	38	+0.66	4.07	203	80
Juan Carlos Sulbaran R 2016 · 4.65 FIP	26	SP	4.65	15.0%	8.9%	3.1%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.65	278	80
Joe Wieland R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	26	SP	4.27	18.6%	7.3%	3.3%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	270	80
Donn Roach R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	26	SP-	3.50	12.8%	4.2%	1.7%	.300	3.94	13.1%	6.7%	174	+0.44	3.01	455	80
Chase Anderson R 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	17.3%	5.9%	2.8%	.296	4.40	20.5%	12.5%	451	+0.48	3.30	1,146	79
Josh A. Smith R 2015 · 3.40 FIP	27	SP	3.40	17.8%	6.9%	1.7%	.307	3.87	19.9%	12.6%	265	+0.47	2.91	598	79
Matt Benedict R 2015 · 4.00 FIP	26	SP-	4.00	10.3%	4.8%	2.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	130	79
Nate Long R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	29	SP	4.67	14.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	151	79
Frank Batista R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	12.1%	8.2%	2.1%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	118	78
Deck McGuire R 2016 · 5.23 FIP	27	SP	5.23	17.2%	8.5%	4.6%	.287	4.05	19.8%	9.4%	277	-1.18	3.41	622	78
Bradin Hagens R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	26	SP-	3.79	14.6%	9.8%	1.2%	.277	4.92	14.9%	5.0%	55	+1.13	3.79	254	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.2	140	16.4%	7.9%	1.19	4.71
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13