Connor Noland
P
Iowa Cubs
+1.1
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'2" / 215 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 1.1 · 2026
ERA4.51
FIP4.51
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%18.7%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%9.6%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.1peak
2026
K†4545
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 24 | 23 | 108 | 447 | 86 | 22 | 11 | 14.8% | 5.7% | 2.6% | 4.08 | 4.01 | +1.6 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 26 | 25 | 134 | 565 | 116 | 36 | 14 | 17.2% | 6.9% | 2.8% | 3.49 | 4.07 | +1.9 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 27 | 22 | 133 | 579 | 115 | 55 | 13 | 17.5% | 10.0% | 2.2% | 4.07 | 4.08 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 3 | 3 | 14 | 61 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 13.0% | 8.6% | 5.4% | 6.59 | 6.06 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | CHC | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 95 | 46 | 13 | 18.7% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 4.51 | 4.51 | +1.1 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 134 | 568 | 104 | 51 | 16 | 18.2% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.72 | 4.67 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 22 | 22 | 120 | 508 | 96 | 45 | 14 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 4.50 | 4.51 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 21 | 21 | 118 | 496 | 94 | 44 | 14 | 19.0% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.51 | 4.54 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 21 | 21 | 114 | 481 | 91 | 43 | 14 | 19.0% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.55 | 4.58 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 20 | 20 | 110 | 464 | 87 | 42 | 14 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.61 | 4.65 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 19 | 19 | 106 | 446 | 83 | 41 | 13 | 18.6% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.69 | 4.74 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 18 | 18 | 101 | 426 | 78 | 40 | 13 | 18.2% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.78 | 4.83 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 17 | 17 | 96 | 404 | 72 | 39 | 13 | 17.9% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 4.88 | 4.94 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 16 | 16 | 90 | 381 | 67 | 37 | 13 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 4.99 | 5.07 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | CHC | 15 | 15 | 84 | 356 | 61 | 36 | 12 | 17.1% | 10.1% | 3.4% | 5.12 | 5.20 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 80 | 73 | 388 | 1652 | 273 | 127 | 44 | 16.5% | 7.7% | 2.6% | 3.96 | 4.13 | +5.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 38 | 200 | 851 | 141 | 65 | 23 | 16.5% | 7.7% | 2.6% | 3.96 | 4.13 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Connor Noland (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.51 | 18.7% | 9.0% | 2.7% | — | 4.54 | 19.0% | 10.0% | 352 | +0.03 | — | — | — |
| Jared Mortensen R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.42 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 5.02 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.60 | 4.42 | 200 | 94 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .286 | 4.13 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.24 | 3.89 | 248 | 93 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 92 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.06 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 2.0% | .306 | 4.65 | 9.0% | -1.2% | 38 | +0.59 | 4.06 | 203 | 89 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 89 |
| David Phelps R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.78 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.17 | 2.49 | 373 | 89 |
| Nestor Molina R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .304 | 3.61 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.20 | 3.03 | 401 | 89 |
| David Hale R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.26 | 16.2% | 6.8% | 3.1% | .343 | 4.14 | 13.8% | 8.1% | 251 | -0.12 | 3.32 | 493 | 88 |
| Tim Atherton R 2024 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 101 | 86 |
| Jacob Turner R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.43 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 86 |
| Dallas Beeler R 2025 · 3.45 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.45 | 15.1% | 7.6% | 1.2% | .301 | 7.35 | 10.0% | 1.5% | 11 | +3.90 | 3.45 | 122 | 85 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2025 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.23 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .309 | 3.32 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.91 | 3.32 | 252 | 85 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .325 | 4.62 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 279 | +0.82 | 3.80 | 500 | 85 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2028 · 3.95 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.95 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.69 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 169 | +0.74 | 3.69 | 283 | 85 |
| Jose Pina R 2028 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.86 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 3.7% | .231 | 3.67 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.19 | 3.65 | 424 | 85 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.72 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.12 | 3.22 | 221 | 84 |
| Joe Wieland R 2025 · 4.28 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.28 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.3% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 270 | 83 |
| Gabriel Arias R 2024 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 13.1% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 195 | 83 |
| Luke Irvine R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.31 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 104 | 83 |
| Mat Latos R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.55 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 2.5% | .306 | 5.15 | 14.5% | 4.4% | 128 | +1.60 | 3.55 | 244 | 83 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.0 | $8M | +$8M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $1M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.7M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.3 | $1M | -$0.0M |
| Totals | $7M | $23M | +$16M | ||