Connor Noland
P
Iowa Cubs
Age 27
RHP
6'2" / 215 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 1.0 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION48 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 104
ERA4.54
FIP4.54
K%17.0%
BB%8.6%
K-BB%8.4%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 113 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 24 | 23 | 108 | 447 | 86 | 22 | 11 | 96% | 4.5 | 14.8% | 5.7% | 9.2% | 2.2% | 4.08 | 3.78 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 24 | 23 | 108 | 447 | 86 | 22 | 11 | 96% | 4.5 | 19.2% | 4.9% | 14.3% | 2.5% | 4.08 | 3.44 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 25 | 134 | 565 | 116 | 36 | 14 | 96% | 5.2 | 17.2% | 6.9% | 10.4% | 2.9% | 3.49 | 4.10 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 25 | 134 | 565 | 116 | 36 | 14 | 96% | 5.2 | 20.5% | 6.4% | 14.2% | 2.5% | 3.49 | 3.53 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 27 | 22 | 133 | 579 | 115 | 55 | 13 | 81% | 4.9 | 17.5% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 2.0% | 4.07 | 3.97 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 27 | 22 | 133 | 579 | 115 | 55 | 13 | 81% | 4.9 | 19.9% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 2.2% | 4.07 | 3.88 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 12 | 11 | 48 | 215 | 31 | 20 | 8 | 92% | 4.0 | 12.7% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 6.19 | 5.51 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | CHC | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 46 | 24 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.0% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 2.6% | 4.54 | 4.54 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | CHC | 1 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.0% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 2.6% | 4.56 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 113 | 489 | 77 | 44 | 15 | — | — | 15.8% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 3.1% | 5.24 | 4.95 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 6 | 27 | 5 | 2 | 1 | — | — | 17.0% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 2.6% | 4.56 | 4.18 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 26 | 26 | 154 | 650 | 113 | 56 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.3% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 4.56 | 4.60 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 25 | 25 | 147 | 621 | 108 | 55 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.63 | 4.70 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 23 | 23 | 138 | 584 | 101 | 53 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.3% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 4.76 | 4.85 | +0.9 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 48 | 24 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.3% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 4.58 | 4.62 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 14 | 14 | 87 | 367 | 64 | 32 | 11 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.65 | 4.72 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 16 | 16 | 97 | 410 | 71 | 37 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.3% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 4.78 | 4.87 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 43 | 43 | 256 | 1081 | 188 | 96 | 32 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.4% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.68 | 4.37 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 147 | 75 | 25 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.4% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.68 | 4.37 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 89 | 81 | 423 | 1806 | 292 | 143 | 46 | 91% | 4.7 | 16.2% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 2.6% | 4.13 | 4.15 | +6.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 38 | 200 | 855 | 138 | 68 | 22 | 91% | 4.7 | 16.2% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 2.6% | 4.13 | 4.15 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Connor Noland (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.54 | 17.0% | 8.6% | 2.6% | — | 4.71 | 17.4% | 8.6% | 439 | +0.17 | — | — | — |
| David Hale R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.2% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .343 | 4.35 | 13.8% | 8.1% | 251 | +0.40 | 3.26 | 493 | 86 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.44 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 4.90 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.46 | 4.44 | 200 | 85 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.02 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 1.9% | .306 | 4.58 | 9.0% | -1.2% | 38 | +0.56 | 4.02 | 203 | 83 |
| Hiram Burgos R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.49 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.6% | .282 | 4.42 | 17.2% | 8.6% | 206 | +0.93 | 3.49 | 355 | 83 |
| David Phelps R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.83 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.11 | 2.51 | 373 | 83 |
| Juan Carlos Sulbaran R 2025 · 4.61 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.61 | 15.0% | 8.9% | 3.0% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.61 | 278 | 82 |
| Nate Long R 2028 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.86 | 14.8% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 151 | 82 |
| Brad Peacock R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.9% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .302 | 3.31 | 29.4% | 20.4% | 289 | -0.58 | 2.88 | 533 | 81 |
| Nestor Molina R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.13 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 4.2% | .304 | 3.57 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.56 | 3.07 | 401 | 81 |
| Gabriel Arias R 2024 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.37 | 13.1% | 7.2% | 2.7% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.96 | 195 | 81 |
| Chris Tillman R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.19 | 16.2% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .290 | 4.90 | 16.2% | 5.9% | 316 | +0.71 | 3.95 | 489 | 81 |
| Tyler Chatwood R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.33 | 19.0% | 11.9% | 2.4% | .279 | 4.46 | 20.6% | 5.2% | 199 | +0.13 | 3.22 | 537 | 80 |
| Chase Anderson R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.86 | 17.3% | 5.9% | 2.7% | .296 | 4.60 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 451 | +0.74 | 3.42 | 1,146 | 80 |
| Josh A. Smith R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.39 | 17.8% | 6.9% | 1.7% | .307 | 3.91 | 19.9% | 12.6% | 265 | +0.52 | 2.71 | 598 | 79 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2028 · 3.93 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.49 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 169 | +0.56 | 3.57 | 283 | 79 |
| Taylor Jungmann R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.82 | 18.8% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 435 | 79 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.52 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 1.8% | .286 | 4.03 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.51 | 3.52 | 248 | 79 |
| Dallas Beeler R 2025 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.54 | 15.1% | 7.6% | 1.4% | .301 | 7.32 | 10.0% | 1.5% | 11 | +3.78 | 3.54 | 122 | 79 |
| Joe Wieland R 2025 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.50 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 270 | 79 |
| Brannon Easterling R 2025 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.25 | 12.7% | 8.2% | 2.1% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 334 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 148 | 17.3% | 8.8% | 1.08 | 4.62 |
| Andrew Cashner ('19) | 5 | 157 | 16.7% | 9.2% | 1.11 | 4.54 |
| Miguel González ('17) | 3 | 145 | 16.2% | 7.5% | 1.18 | 4.44 |
| Jaime García ('18) | 4 | 135 | 19.6% | 8.5% | 1.05 | 4.23 |
| Edinson Volquez ('17) | 3 | 161 | 17.9% | 9.6% | 0.88 | 4.39 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |