Malachi Witherspoon

P Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 211 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.8 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#534ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	21	ADET	21	21	77	5.61	3.26	27.0%	7.8%	—	K 20.0% · BB 9.3% · FIP 4.45
2027PROJ	22	MLBDET	—	—	0	4.66	4.66	21.2%	10.1%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBDET	6	6	31	4.46	4.40	22.3%	9.6%	0.3
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBDET	8	8	44	4.35	4.29	22.9%	9.3%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$2M2032Arb-2$2M2033Arb-3$3M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 3.1, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 90%

CompsTanner Burns (age 22) · Chih-Jung Liu (age 22) · Chad Patrick (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 105

ERA4.66

FIP4.66

K%21.2%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%11.0%

Proj IP54

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$17M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-2	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.3M
2033	Arb-3	$3M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$10M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	21	21	77	344	93	27	9	100%	3.7	20.0%	9.3%	10.7%	3.4%	5.61	4.45	—
2026	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	21	21	77	344	93	27	9	100%	3.7	20.0%	9.3%	10.7%	3.4%	5.61	4.45	—
2026	21	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	21	21	77	344	93	27	9	100%	3.7	27.0%	7.8%	19.2%	2.6%	5.61	3.26	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	DET	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.2%	10.1%	11.0%	3.1%	4.66	4.66	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	62	263	59	25	8	100%	5.7	22.3%	9.6%	12.7%	3.0%	4.53	4.47	+0.7
2029	24	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	62	263	60	25	8	100%	5.7	22.9%	9.3%	13.6%	3.0%	4.42	4.36	+0.8
2030	25	MLB MLE	DET	10	10	58	245	57	22	7	100%	5.8	23.3%	9.2%	14.1%	3.0%	4.35	4.30	+0.8
2031	26	MLB MLE	DET	10	10	58	245	58	22	7	100%	5.8	23.5%	9.1%	14.4%	3.0%	4.31	4.28	+0.8
2032	27	MLB MLE	DET	9	9	57	239	56	22	7	100%	6.3	23.5%	9.2%	14.3%	3.0%	4.32	4.32	+0.7
2033	28	MLB MLE	DET	9	9	54	228	53	21	7	100%	6.0	23.4%	9.4%	14.0%	3.1%	4.37	4.40	+0.6
2034	29	MLB MLE	DET	8	8	50	211	49	20	7	100%	6.2	23.2%	9.6%	13.6%	3.3%	4.47	4.53	+0.5
2035	30	MLB MLE	DET	7	7	45	190	43	19	7	100%	6.4	22.8%	9.9%	12.9%	3.5%	4.62	4.71	+0.4
2028	23	MLB CTX	DET	6	6	31	131	29	13	4	100%	5.2	22.3%	9.6%	12.7%	2.9%	4.46	4.40	+0.3
2029	24	MLB CTX	DET	8	8	44	186	43	17	5	100%	5.5	22.9%	9.3%	13.6%	2.9%	4.35	4.29	+0.5
2030	25	MLB CTX	DET	8	8	47	198	46	18	6	100%	5.9	23.3%	9.2%	14.1%	2.8%	4.28	4.23	+0.6
2031	26	MLB CTX	DET	8	8	51	215	51	20	6	100%	6.4	23.5%	9.1%	14.4%	2.8%	4.24	4.21	+0.7
2032	27	MLB CTX	DET	8	8	51	215	51	20	6	100%	6.4	23.5%	9.2%	14.3%	2.9%	4.25	4.25	+0.6
2033	28	MLB CTX	DET	8	8	50	211	49	20	6	100%	6.2	23.4%	9.4%	14.0%	3.0%	4.30	4.33	+0.6
2034	29	MLB CTX	DET	8	8	46	194	45	19	6	100%	5.8	23.2%	9.6%	13.6%	3.1%	4.39	4.45	+0.5
2035	30	MLB CTX	DET	7	7	42	177	40	18	6	100%	6.0	22.8%	9.9%	12.9%	3.3%	4.54	4.63	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		62	62	361	1526	353	143	45	100%	5.8	23.2%	9.4%	13.8%	3.0%	4.34	3.96	+6.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	195	79	25	100%	5.9	23.2%	9.4%	13.8%	3.0%	4.34	3.96	+3.4
Career	—	MLE		21	21	77	344	69	32	12	100%	3.7	20.0%	9.3%	10.7%	3.4%	5.61	4.45	+5.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	55	200	894	179	83	30	100%	3.7	20.0%	9.3%	10.7%	3.4%	5.61	4.45	+2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 77 IPFIP 3.25 → 4.45 (+1.20)K% 27.0% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.03%	—	×0.740	20.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.85%	—	×1.180	9.26%
HR / BF /BF	2.62%	÷1.000	×1.300	3.40%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.25 → 4.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Malachi Witherspoon (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.38	22.8%	13.5%	183	-0.28	—	—	—
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.31	19.4%	6.5%	244	+0.97	4.34	382	90
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	89
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.19	22.1%	14.2%	422	+0.33	3.69	570	88
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.48	21.4%	12.8%	178	-0.58	2.48	298	87
Mike Vasil R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	22	SP	3.63	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.53	18.9%	10.0%	359	+0.90	3.63	429	86
Carmen Mlodzinski R 2021 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	10.8%	3.3%	.311	3.86	20.8%	11.3%	236	-0.47	3.16	524	85
Ryan Jensen R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	21.4%	10.8%	4.0%	.236	4.48	22.0%	5.1%	180	-0.38	3.92	311	85
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.53	19.8%	6.6%	278	+1.79	3.74	362	85
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	85
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.90	22.5%	6.9%	260	-0.04	4.14	414	85
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.18	457	85
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	85
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	83
Ricky DeVito R 2021 · 4.04 FIP	22	SP	4.04	22.8%	8.8%	3.2%	.309	4.65	21.5%	2.4%	151	+0.61	4.04	215	83
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	83
Jaxon Wiggins R 2024 · 3.53 FIP	22	SP	3.53	22.5%	12.8%	1.3%	.286	3.71	23.6%	9.6%	102	+0.18	3.11	154	83
Levi Wells R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.6%	.360	3.82	19.0%	10.2%	132	-0.53	3.70	192	83
Curtis Taylor R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP	3.95	19.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.305	3.40	23.5%	13.7%	96	-0.55	2.58	408	83
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	452	82
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	56	22.9%	9.5%	1.19	4.44
David Hernandez ('19)	3.2	65	23.9%	9.1%	1.22	4.12
Jacob Barnes ('25)	1.7	48	22.0%	9.2%	1.15	4.79
Stan Belinda ('00)	3.4	61	21.3%	9.9%	1.13	4.12
Xavier Hernandez ('89-'98, 3 WAR*)	3.4	67	23.9%*	9.1%*	1.12*	4.20*
Rob Murphy ('85-'95, 6 WAR*)	3.1	69	25.2%*	9.2%*	1.07*	3.94*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*