Malachi Witherspoon

Malachi Witherspoon P Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 211 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.5 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 23 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.53

FIP4.53

K%22.5%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%12.3%

ROS IP23

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$21M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5055

CTRL—40

CMD3045

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2031	Arb-1	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.5M
2032	Arb-2	$5M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$6M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$12M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	21	21	77	344	93	27	9	100%	3.7	20.0%	9.3%	10.7%	3.4%	5.61	4.45	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	21	21	77	344	93	27	9	100%	3.7	20.0%	9.3%	10.7%	3.4%	5.61	4.45	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	DET	21	21	77	344	93	27	9	100%	3.7	27.0%	7.8%	19.2%	2.6%	5.61	3.25	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	DET	14	14	79	334	79	32	10	100%	5.7	23.5%	9.6%	13.9%	3.0%	4.40	4.33	+0.5
2028	23	MLB MLE	DET	15	15	82	347	84	32	10	100%	5.5	24.2%	9.2%	15.0%	2.9%	4.28	4.20	+0.7
2029	24	MLB MLE	DET	15	15	84	356	88	32	10	100%	5.6	24.7%	8.9%	15.8%	2.9%	4.18	4.11	+0.8
2030	25	MLB MLE	DET	15	15	85	361	90	32	10	100%	5.7	25.0%	8.8%	16.2%	2.9%	4.11	4.05	+0.9
2031	26	MLB MLE	DET	14	14	85	361	91	31	10	100%	6.1	25.2%	8.7%	16.5%	2.9%	4.06	4.03	+0.9
2032	27	MLB MLE	DET	14	14	84	355	89	31	10	100%	6.0	25.2%	8.8%	16.4%	2.9%	4.07	4.07	+0.8
2033	28	MLB MLE	DET	14	14	82	345	86	31	10	100%	5.8	25.1%	8.9%	16.1%	3.0%	4.12	4.16	+0.7
2034	29	MLB MLE	DET	13	13	78	329	88	28	10	100%	6.0	26.8%	8.4%	18.5%	3.2%	4.06	4.02	+0.8
2035	30	MLB MLE	DET	12	12	73	309	82	27	10	100%	6.1	26.5%	8.7%	17.8%	3.4%	4.14	4.19	+0.6
2036	31	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	68	288	75	26	10	100%	6.2	26.1%	9.0%	17.1%	3.6%	4.29	4.39	+0.4
2037	32	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	63	267	68	25	10	100%	5.7	25.6%	9.4%	16.2%	3.8%	4.49	4.62	+0.2
2027	22	MLB CTX	DET	7	7	39	165	39	16	5	100%	5.6	23.5%	9.6%	13.9%	2.8%	4.33	4.26	+0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	DET	11	11	60	253	61	23	7	100%	5.5	24.2%	9.2%	15.0%	2.8%	4.21	4.13	+0.5
2029	24	MLB CTX	DET	12	12	70	296	73	26	8	100%	5.8	24.7%	8.9%	15.8%	2.8%	4.11	4.04	+0.7
2030	25	MLB CTX	DET	13	13	75	317	79	28	9	100%	5.8	25.0%	8.8%	16.2%	2.7%	4.04	3.98	+0.8
2031	26	MLB CTX	DET	13	13	78	329	83	29	9	100%	6.0	25.2%	8.7%	16.5%	2.7%	3.99	3.96	+0.8
2032	27	MLB CTX	DET	13	13	78	329	83	29	9	100%	6.0	25.2%	8.8%	16.4%	2.8%	4.00	4.00	+0.8
2033	28	MLB CTX	DET	13	13	76	321	80	29	9	100%	5.8	25.1%	8.9%	16.1%	2.9%	4.05	4.09	+0.7
2034	29	MLB CTX	DET	12	12	74	312	84	26	9	100%	6.2	26.8%	8.4%	18.5%	3.0%	3.99	3.95	+0.8
2035	30	MLB CTX	DET	12	12	70	296	78	26	10	100%	5.8	26.5%	8.7%	17.8%	3.2%	4.06	4.11	+0.6
2036	31	MLB CTX	DET	11	11	65	274	72	25	9	100%	5.9	26.1%	9.0%	17.1%	3.4%	4.21	4.31	+0.4
2037	32	MLB CTX	DET	10	10	60	253	65	24	9	100%	6.0	25.6%	9.4%	16.2%	3.7%	4.40	4.53	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		128	128	745	3145	797	280	94	100%	5.8	25.3%	8.9%	16.4%	3.0%	4.11	3.73	+10.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	214	75	25	100%	5.8	25.3%	8.9%	16.4%	3.0%	4.11	3.73	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		21	21	77	344	69	32	12	100%	3.7	20.0%	9.3%	10.7%	3.4%	5.61	4.45	+7.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	55	200	894	179	83	30	100%	3.7	20.0%	9.3%	10.7%	3.4%	5.61	4.45	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Malachi Witherspoon (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.53	22.5%	10.2%	3.0%	—	4.21	24.2%	14.9%	246	-0.32	—	—	—
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	84
Rayner Urbaez R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	20	SP	3.88	23.6%	11.4%	2.4%	.337	3.35	15.0%	3.0%	27	-0.53	2.55	103	84
Jimmy Joyce R 2021 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP	3.78	25.0%	9.0%	3.0%	.341	4.03	20.4%	9.7%	242	+0.25	3.39	259	84
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	84
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	83
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	83
Carmen Mlodzinski R 2021 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	10.8%	3.3%	.311	3.87	20.6%	11.1%	236	-0.46	3.17	515	83
Regi Grace R 2021 · 4.76 FIP	21	SP	4.76	19.6%	10.7%	3.5%	.227	3.99	19.6%	8.5%	173	-0.77	3.44	224	83
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	22	SP	3.76	21.9%	9.8%	2.3%	.175	4.18	18.0%	7.5%	168	+0.42	3.51	330	82
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	82
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	81
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.32	19.2%	6.3%	244	+0.98	4.34	382	81
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	81
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	80
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	80
Mike Vasil R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	22	SP	3.63	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.56	18.5%	9.7%	359	+0.93	3.63	429	80
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	79
Carson Fulmer R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	21	SP	4.15	21.4%	11.5%	2.5%	.259	4.96	17.1%	4.0%	364	+0.81	3.88	899	79
Juan Nuñez R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SP	4.49	19.6%	13.2%	2.5%	.300	4.42	22.8%	8.3%	148	-0.07	2.88	245	79
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	451	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.4	74	25.2%	9.0%	1.20	4.20
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81