Khal Stephen — OGILVIE

Khal Stephen P Akron RubberDucks

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.3 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION55 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109100vR 91

ERA3.93

FIP3.93

K%20.9%

BB%5.5%

K-BB%15.4%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 120 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5055

CTRL5555

CMD5055

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$6M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$11M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$12M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	22	MIX	3 levels	22	21	103	406	110	20	5	95%	4.7	20.6%	5.7%	15.0%	1.8%	2.53	3.05	—
2025	22	MIX	3 levels	22	21	103	406	110	20	5	95%	4.7	27.1%	4.9%	22.2%	1.2%	2.53	2.18	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	AA	Akron RubberDucks	12	12	55	235	49	23	6	100%	4.6	16.9%	10.8%	6.1%	3.1%	3.44	4.72	-0.1
ROS	23	MLB	CLE	12	12	65	274	57	15	8	100%	5.4	20.9%	5.5%	15.4%	2.8%	3.93	3.93	+0.5
ROS	23	MLB	CLE	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	20.9%	5.5%	15.4%	2.8%	3.93	3.93	+0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB	CLE	—	—	120	509	106	38	14	—	—	20.9%	7.5%	13.4%	2.7%	3.70	4.29	+1.6
2026 FULL	23	MLB	CLE	—	—	1	5	1	0	0	—	—	20.9%	5.5%	15.5%	2.8%	3.93	3.55	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	CLE	21	21	118	499	109	27	14	100%	5.6	21.9%	5.5%	16.4%	2.8%	3.89	3.85	+2.1
2028	25	MLB	CLE	24	24	138	581	130	32	16	100%	5.7	22.4%	5.5%	16.9%	2.8%	3.85	3.81	+2.6
2029	26	MLB	CLE	25	25	150	632	143	35	18	100%	6.0	22.6%	5.6%	17.0%	2.8%	3.83	3.81	+2.8
2030	27	MLB	CLE	25	25	148	623	141	35	18	100%	5.9	22.6%	5.7%	16.9%	2.8%	3.85	3.85	+2.7
2031	28	MLB	CLE	24	24	143	604	136	35	18	100%	6.0	22.4%	5.9%	16.6%	2.9%	3.90	3.94	+2.4
2032	29	MLB	CLE	23	23	137	577	128	35	18	100%	5.9	22.2%	6.1%	16.1%	3.1%	4.00	4.07	+2.1
2033	30	MLB	CLE	21	21	128	543	119	35	18	100%	6.1	21.9%	6.4%	15.5%	3.3%	4.15	4.25	+1.7
2034	31	MLB	CLE	20	20	120	506	109	34	18	100%	6.0	21.5%	6.7%	14.7%	3.5%	4.33	4.45	+1.3
2035	32	MLB	CLE	18	18	111	468	98	33	18	100%	6.2	21.0%	7.1%	13.9%	3.8%	4.54	4.68	+0.9
2027	24	MLB	CLE	9	9	52	220	48	12	6	100%	5.8	21.9%	5.5%	16.4%	2.8%	3.89	3.85	+0.4
2028	25	MLB	CLE	16	16	92	388	87	21	11	100%	5.8	22.4%	5.5%	16.9%	2.8%	3.85	3.81	+1.5
2029	26	MLB	CLE	20	20	119	502	114	28	14	100%	6.0	22.6%	5.6%	17.0%	2.8%	3.83	3.81	+2.2
2030	27	MLB	CLE	21	21	126	532	120	30	15	100%	6.0	22.6%	5.7%	16.9%	2.8%	3.85	3.85	+2.3
2031	28	MLB	CLE	21	21	128	540	121	32	16	100%	6.1	22.4%	5.9%	16.6%	2.9%	3.90	3.94	+2.2
2032	29	MLB	CLE	21	21	124	524	116	32	16	100%	5.9	22.2%	6.1%	16.1%	3.1%	4.00	4.07	+1.9
2033	30	MLB	CLE	20	20	119	502	110	32	16	100%	6.0	21.9%	6.4%	15.5%	3.3%	4.15	4.25	+1.6
2034	31	MLB	CLE	19	19	112	473	101	32	17	100%	5.9	21.5%	6.7%	14.7%	3.5%	4.33	4.45	+1.3
2035	32	MLB	CLE	17	17	104	439	92	31	16	100%	6.1	21.0%	7.1%	13.9%	3.8%	4.53	4.67	+0.9
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			164	164	976	4121	910	250	127	100%	6.0	22.1%	6.1%	16.0%	3.1%	4.04	3.70	+19.4
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	844	186	51	26	100%	6.0	22.1%	6.1%	16.0%	3.1%	4.04	3.70	+4.0
Career	—			34	33	158	641	123	48	14	97%	4.6	19.3%	7.5%	11.7%	2.2%	2.85	3.66	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—			43	42	200	811	156	61	18	97%	4.6	19.3%	7.5%	11.7%	2.2%	2.85	3.66	+4.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Khal Stephen (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.93	20.9%	5.5%	2.8%	—	3.82	22.3%	16.8%	406	-0.11	—	—	—
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2027 · 3.69 FIP	24	SP	3.69	21.8%	5.6%	3.1%	.336	6.45	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.76	3.69	124	91
Connor Lunn R 2026 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	18.9%	4.7%	2.7%	.310	4.50	16.5%	10.0%	212	+0.92	3.58	332	88
Zebby Matthews R 2026 · 3.77 FIP	23	SP	3.77	20.0%	4.1%	3.4%	.290	3.89	23.6%	18.1%	352	+0.12	3.15	457	86
Braxton Bragg R 2026 · 3.78 FIP	23	SP	3.78	22.3%	6.4%	3.2%	.325	2.47	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.31	2.47	155	85
Colin Peluse R 2026 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP	4.32	20.4%	7.2%	3.7%	.299	6.05	15.0%	6.8%	236	+1.73	3.02	417	85
Alex Faedo R 2026 · 3.39 FIP	23	SP	3.39	22.9%	5.8%	2.7%	.293	4.60	18.0%	7.8%	54	+1.21	3.39	438	85
Brian Edgington R 2028 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP	3.81	19.5%	6.5%	2.8%	.321	5.05	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.24	3.81	171	85
Logan Workman R 2026 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP	4.30	19.3%	7.4%	3.5%	.287	3.81	20.4%	12.5%	362	-0.49	3.73	540	84
Jacob Kisting R 2026 · 2.74 FIP	23	SP	2.74	21.9%	5.9%	1.4%	.251	—	—	—	—	—	2.74	144	84
Garrett Edwards R 2026 · 3.97 FIP	23	SP	3.97	18.5%	7.3%	2.7%	.250	6.06	13.6%	4.7%	74	+2.09	3.97	181	84
Griffin Canning R 2026 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	25.0%	7.2%	3.3%	.277	4.84	22.9%	13.0%	119	+1.14	3.70	776	83
Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	18.9%	6.9%	3.6%	.300	4.41	21.0%	11.3%	266	+0.05	3.41	368	83
Hayden Wesneski R 2026 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP	3.72	23.2%	7.2%	3.0%	.295	4.09	22.6%	14.8%	336	+0.37	3.54	487	83
Tanner Gordon R 2026 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	18.5%	5.5%	4.2%	.290	4.66	18.6%	11.7%	349	+0.14	4.24	662	83
Blake Burkhalter R 2026 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	17.3%	6.5%	2.0%	.317	3.73	16.7%	5.6%	103	+0.15	3.58	173	83
Xzavion Curry R 2026 · 3.19 FIP	23	SP	3.19	24.6%	5.1%	2.8%	.247	5.07	18.5%	10.6%	320	+1.88	3.19	513	82
Cody Morris R 2025 · 4.00 FIP	22	SP	4.00	21.6%	8.1%	3.1%	.362	2.86	31.1%	20.9%	96	-1.14	2.26	256	82
Mitchell Kilkenny R 2027 · 3.46 FIP	24	SP	3.46	17.6%	5.5%	2.1%	.290	5.81	13.4%	5.1%	124	+2.35	3.18	237	82
Connor McCullough R 2026 · 4.70 FIP	23	SP	4.70	21.8%	6.4%	4.8%	.280	4.46	20.0%	12.2%	108	-0.24	3.62	222	82
Gabe Mosser R 2026 · 3.79 FIP	23	SP	3.79	17.7%	6.3%	2.5%	.346	4.63	14.9%	6.9%	104	+0.84	3.79	606	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10	128	22.0%	6.0%	1.18	4.01
Joe Musgrove ('24)	9	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Johnny Cueto ('23)	8	128	19.9%	6.1%	1.08	3.76
Alex Wood ('24)	9	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Madison Bumgarner ('22) AS×4SS	8	155	22.7%	5.9%	1.23	3.70
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Adam Wainwright ('23) AS×3GG×2SS	9	125	18.6%	7.3%	1.03	4.25