Khal Stephen — OGILVIE

Khal Stephen P Akron RubberDucks

+1.6 WAR

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 2.2 · 2030

ERA4.09

FIP4.09

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.8%

BB%7.6%

K-BB%14.3%

IP103

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.2peak

2030

OFP—50

K†5055

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	22	AA	Akron RubberDucks	22	21	103	406	110	20	5	20.6%	5.7%	1.6%	2.53	2.96	+2.7
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	AA	Akron RubberDucks	3	3	13	54	15	11	0	22.5%	22.4%	0.0%	0.71	4.04	+0.1
ROS	23	MLB	CLE	19	19	103	435	95	33	12	21.8%	7.6%	2.7%	4.09	4.09	+1.4
2026 Total	23	MLB	CLE	—	—	116	489	110	44	12	22.5%	9.0%	2.4%	3.72	4.08	+1.6
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	CLE	22	22	122	513	115	38	14	22.4%	7.4%	2.7%	4.05	4.02	+1.8
2028	25	MLB	CLE	25	25	135	570	130	41	16	22.8%	7.3%	2.7%	4.01	3.98	+2.0
2029	26	MLB	CLE	26	26	142	600	137	43	16	22.9%	7.2%	2.7%	3.99	3.97	+2.1
2030	27	MLB	CLE	26	26	145	612	140	45	17	22.9%	7.3%	2.8%	3.99	3.99	+2.2
2031	28	MLB	CLE	26	26	145	611	140	45	17	22.9%	7.3%	2.8%	4.00	4.01	+2.1
2032	29	MLB	CLE	26	26	142	597	136	44	17	22.7%	7.4%	2.8%	4.03	4.06	+2.0
2033	30	MLB	CLE	25	25	137	580	131	44	17	22.5%	7.5%	2.9%	4.08	4.12	+1.8
2034	31	MLB	CLE	24	24	132	559	125	43	17	22.3%	7.6%	3.0%	4.15	4.20	+1.7
2035	32	MLB	CLE	23	23	127	537	118	42	16	22.0%	7.8%	3.1%	4.23	4.28	+1.5
2036	33	MLB	CLE	22	22	122	513	111	41	16	21.7%	8.0%	3.1%	4.32	4.38	+1.3
2037	34	MLB	CLE	21	21	115	487	104	40	16	21.3%	8.2%	3.2%	4.42	4.49	+1.1
2038	35	MLB	CLE	20	20	109	459	96	39	15	21.0%	8.4%	3.4%	4.53	4.61	+0.9
2039	36	MLB	CLE	18	18	102	429	88	37	15	20.5%	8.6%	3.5%	4.66	4.75	+0.6
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			25	24	116	460	96	35	7	20.9%	7.6%	1.4%	2.33	3.09	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—			43	41	200	795	166	61	12	20.9%	7.6%	1.4%	2.33	3.09	+5.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Khal Stephen (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.09	21.8%	7.6%	2.7%	—	3.99	22.7%	15.4%	399	-0.10	—	—	—
Braxton Bragg R 2026 · 3.78 FIP	23	SP-	3.78	22.3%	6.4%	3.2%	.325	2.60	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.18	2.60	155	94
Mason Adams R 2026 · 3.66 FIP	23	SP-	3.66	20.4%	7.3%	2.5%	.315	3.76	18.2%	12.0%	120	+0.10	3.66	229	93
Hayden Wesneski R 2026 · 3.77 FIP	23	SP-	3.77	23.2%	7.2%	3.1%	.295	4.13	22.6%	14.8%	336	+0.36	3.55	487	92
Brett Conine R 2025 · 3.21 FIP	22	SP-	3.21	22.3%	7.2%	2.0%	.290	5.79	15.4%	4.9%	205	+2.58	3.21	319	92
Colin Peluse R 2026 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP-	4.20	20.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.299	5.61	15.0%	6.8%	236	+1.41	3.05	395	92
Reid Johnston R 2026 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP-	3.74	19.4%	6.1%	2.7%	.297	5.02	19.5%	5.6%	92	+1.28	3.74	204	92
Griffin Canning R 2026 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP-	3.65	25.0%	7.2%	3.2%	.277	4.57	22.9%	13.0%	119	+0.92	3.65	705	89
Jason Bahr R 2026 · 3.79 FIP	23	SP-	3.79	20.3%	8.2%	2.5%	.297	4.07	20.3%	7.1%	155	+0.28	3.32	315	89
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2027 · 3.87 FIP	24	SP-	3.87	21.8%	5.6%	3.5%	.336	6.35	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.48	3.87	124	89
Alex Faedo R 2026 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.9%	5.8%	3.3%	.293	4.54	18.0%	7.8%	54	+0.82	3.72	438	88
James Hicks R 2026 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	19.6%	7.2%	3.4%	.338	4.35	17.5%	10.4%	61	+0.12	3.67	167	88
Alex FaGalde R 2027 · 3.79 FIP	24	SP-	3.79	19.1%	6.7%	2.7%	.266	4.98	16.1%	6.4%	162	+1.19	3.79	279	88
Logan Workman R 2026 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP-	4.34	19.3%	7.4%	3.5%	.287	3.98	20.4%	12.5%	362	-0.36	3.84	494	88
Zack Lee R 2026 · 3.52 FIP	23	SP-	3.52	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	5.37	11.6%	2.7%	93	+1.85	3.52	175	88
Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.38 FIP	23	SP-	4.38	18.9%	6.9%	3.6%	.300	4.37	21.0%	11.3%	266	-0.01	3.50	368	88
Brett Sears R 2028 · 3.63 FIP	25	SP-	3.63	21.1%	7.1%	2.6%	.244	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	111	88
Kyle Brnovich R 2026 · 4.01 FIP	23	SP-	4.01	25.1%	7.5%	3.8%	.256	5.52	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.51	4.01	277	87
Martin Agosta R 2027 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP-	4.29	21.6%	6.2%	4.0%	.340	4.59	12.3%	5.7%	40	+0.30	4.29	146	87
Brian Edgington R 2028 · 3.97 FIP	25	SP-	3.97	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.23	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.26	3.97	171	87
Tyler Stuart R 2026 · 3.55 FIP	23	SP-	3.55	19.5%	8.1%	1.9%	.280	3.89	20.4%	11.7%	142	+0.34	3.55	252	87

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+2.1	$18M	+$18M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+2.2	$20M	+$19M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+2.1	$19M	+$19M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+2.0	$19M	+$15M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$7M	+1.8	$18M	+$11M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$9M	+1.7	$17M	+$8M
Totals		$22M		$112M	+$89M