Khal Stephen

P Akron RubberDucks

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.9 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP40OGV rank#284ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX3 levels	22	21	103	2.53	2.18	27.1%	4.9%	—	K 20.6% · BB 5.7% · FIP 2.96
2026	23	AACLE	12	12	55	3.44	3.99	20.9%	9.8%	—	K 16.9% · BB 10.8% · FIP 4.72
2027PROJ	24	MLBCLE	1	1	2	4.46	4.46	18.8%	7.8%	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBCLE	7	7	41	4.38	4.33	20.1%	7.6%	0.5
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBCLE	11	11	64	4.32	4.28	20.8%	7.6%	0.8

Next 3 projected WAR 1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$2M2032Arb-2$3M2033Arb-3$3M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.7 / P90 7.4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 84%

CompsMatt Duffy (age 22) · Brian Edgington (age 25) · Riley Thompson (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.46

FIP4.46

K%18.8%

BB%7.8%

K-BB%11.1%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$24M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.9	$3M	+$1M
2032	Arb-2	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.3M
2033	Arb-3	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$13M	+$7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	21	103	406	110	20	5	95%	4.7	20.6%	5.7%	15.0%	1.6%	2.53	2.96	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	21	103	406	110	20	5	95%	4.7	20.6%	5.7%	15.0%	1.6%	2.53	2.96	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	21	103	406	110	20	5	95%	4.7	27.1%	4.9%	22.2%	1.2%	2.53	2.18	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	12	12	55	235	49	23	6	100%	4.6	16.9%	10.8%	6.1%	3.1%	3.44	4.72	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	12	12	55	235	49	23	6	100%	4.6	16.9%	10.8%	6.1%	3.1%	3.44	4.72	—
2026	23	AA RAW	Akron RubberDucks	12	12	55	235	49	23	6	100%	4.6	20.9%	9.8%	11.1%	2.6%	3.44	3.99	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	CLE	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	2.0	18.8%	7.8%	11.1%	2.9%	4.46	4.46	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	CLE	16	16	93	392	79	30	11	100%	5.8	20.1%	7.6%	12.5%	2.9%	4.38	4.33	+1.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	CLE	16	16	96	405	84	31	12	100%	6.0	20.8%	7.6%	13.2%	2.9%	4.32	4.28	+1.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	CLE	15	15	92	388	81	30	11	100%	6.1	20.8%	7.7%	13.2%	2.9%	4.31	4.31	+1.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	CLE	15	15	87	368	76	29	11	100%	5.8	20.7%	7.8%	12.9%	3.1%	4.36	4.39	+1.0
2032	29	MLB MLE	CLE	13	13	81	341	70	27	11	100%	6.2	20.5%	8.0%	12.4%	3.2%	4.46	4.53	+0.8
2033	30	MLB MLE	CLE	12	12	73	309	62	26	10	100%	6.1	20.1%	8.3%	11.8%	3.4%	4.61	4.70	+0.6
2034	31	MLB MLE	CLE	11	11	65	275	54	24	10	100%	5.9	19.7%	8.7%	11.0%	3.6%	4.79	4.91	+0.4
2035	32	MLB MLE	CLE	10	10	57	241	46	22	9	100%	5.7	19.3%	9.1%	10.2%	3.9%	4.99	5.13	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	CLE	7	7	41	173	35	13	5	100%	5.9	20.1%	7.6%	12.5%	2.9%	4.38	4.33	+0.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	CLE	11	11	64	270	56	20	8	100%	5.8	20.8%	7.6%	13.2%	2.9%	4.32	4.28	+0.8
2030	27	MLB CTX	CLE	12	12	71	300	62	23	9	100%	5.9	20.8%	7.7%	13.2%	2.9%	4.31	4.31	+0.9
2031	28	MLB CTX	CLE	12	12	73	308	64	24	9	100%	6.1	20.7%	7.8%	12.9%	3.0%	4.36	4.39	+0.9
2032	29	MLB CTX	CLE	12	12	71	300	61	24	10	100%	5.9	20.5%	8.0%	12.4%	3.2%	4.46	4.53	+0.7
2033	30	MLB CTX	CLE	11	11	66	279	56	23	9	100%	6.0	20.1%	8.3%	11.8%	3.4%	4.61	4.70	+0.5
2034	31	MLB CTX	CLE	10	10	60	253	50	22	9	100%	6.0	19.7%	8.7%	11.0%	3.6%	4.79	4.91	+0.3
2035	32	MLB CTX	CLE	9	9	53	224	43	20	9	100%	5.9	19.3%	9.1%	10.2%	3.9%	4.98	5.12	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		83	83	499	2105	427	170	68	100%	6.0	20.3%	8.1%	12.2%	3.2%	4.51	4.18	+7.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	171	68	27	100%	6.0	20.3%	8.1%	12.2%	3.2%	4.51	4.18	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		34	33	158	641	123	48	14	97%	4.6	19.3%	7.5%	11.7%	2.1%	2.85	3.60	+6.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	42	200	811	156	61	17	97%	4.6	19.3%	7.5%	11.7%	2.1%	2.85	3.60	+2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAkron RubberDucks · 55 IPFIP 3.98 → 4.72 (+0.74)K% 20.9% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.85%	—	×0.810	16.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.79%	—	×1.100	10.77%
HR / BF /BF	2.55%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.06%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.98 → 4.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Vancouver Canadians · 48 IPFIP 2.14 → 3.03 (+0.90)K% 26.6% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.63%	—	×0.770	20.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.43%	—	×1.150	6.25%
HR / BF /BF	1.09%	÷0.855	×1.250	1.59%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 71).

Result: FIP 2.14 → 3.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ADunedin Blue Jays · 39 IPFIP 1.39 → 2.19 (+0.80)K% 31.4% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.37%	—	×0.740	23.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.58%	—	×1.180	5.40%
HR / BF /BF	0.65%	÷1.284	×1.300	0.66%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 157).

Result: FIP 1.39 → 2.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAkron RubberDucks · 15 IPFIP 3.65 → 4.48 (+0.83)K% 18.8% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.84%	—	×0.810	15.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.35%	—	×1.100	4.78%
HR / BF /BF	2.90%	÷0.926	×1.200	3.76%

Result: FIP 3.65 → 4.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Khal Stephen (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.31	20.5%	12.9%	281	-0.15	—	—	—
Matt Duffy R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	18.5%	7.9%	2.8%	.274	9.34	22.0%	9.7%	17	+5.27	4.07	116	90
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	88
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.48	340	88
Grant Rogers R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	17.4%	7.2%	2.8%	.297	4.45	12.8%	6.3%	280	+0.37	3.90	392	87
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	87
Connor Noland R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP	3.98	14.8%	5.7%	2.6%	.290	4.26	16.4%	8.7%	340	+0.28	3.95	448	86
Blake Burkhalter R 2024 · 3.35 FIP	23	SP	3.35	17.3%	6.5%	1.6%	.317	3.55	18.1%	7.9%	133	+0.20	3.25	202	86
Mason Erla R 2022 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	14.9%	6.0%	2.7%	.309	4.89	14.8%	5.2%	124	+0.78	3.11	206	85
Justin Armbruester R 2023 · 4.41 FIP	24	SP	4.41	17.7%	9.6%	2.9%	.271	5.25	21.0%	10.6%	135	+0.84	1.49	373	85
Emerson Hancock R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.31	18.5%	11.5%	428	+0.01	3.24	669	85
Jack Cushing R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	24	SP	3.69	18.2%	6.7%	2.3%	.326	4.64	18.2%	11.4%	332	+0.95	3.68	523	85
Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.30	21.0%	11.4%	164	+0.65	3.65	256	85
Gabe Mosser R 2019 · 3.75 FIP	23	SP	3.75	17.7%	6.3%	2.5%	.346	4.57	14.9%	6.9%	104	+0.82	3.75	658	85
Ryan Bergert R 2024 · 3.94 FIP	24	SP	3.94	16.9%	8.7%	2.1%	.317	4.27	21.4%	11.7%	121	+0.33	3.44	428	84
Blake Beers R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP	4.61	18.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.298	4.94	17.7%	8.7%	323	+0.33	4.32	416	84
Ty Langenberg R 2024 · 3.49 FIP	22	SP	3.49	19.2%	7.6%	1.9%	.325	4.01	16.7%	6.8%	229	+0.52	3.49	337	84
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	84
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	84
Mitchell Kilkenny R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	17.6%	5.5%	2.5%	.290	5.79	13.4%	5.1%	124	+2.12	3.18	237	84
Trent Baker R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	24	SP	3.88	16.3%	6.0%	2.5%	.279	4.27	19.7%	10.4%	253	+0.39	3.86	496	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	82	20.1%	8.0%	1.22	4.49
Odell Jones ('75-'88, 2 WAR*)	2.7	78	20.8%*	8.8%*	1.18*	4.62*
Rich Bordi ('80-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.9	74	20.8%*	7.3%*	1.22*	4.55*
Randy O'Neal ('84-'90, 1 WAR*)	2.2	73	17.4%*	7.8%*	1.21*	4.65*
Zach McAllister ('23)	3.0	85	21.1%	7.8%	1.07	4.15
Juan Nicasio ('20)	3.6	80	21.3%	8.3%	1.04	4.71
Scott Sanders ('99)	3.4	97	21.2%	9.3%	1.23	4.86