Khal Stephen — OGILVIE

Khal Stephen P Akron RubberDucks

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.8 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION55 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10799vR 91

ERA3.88

FIP3.88

K%20.8%

BB%5.2%

K-BB%15.6%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$36M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5055

CTRL5555

CMD5055

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$9M	+$8M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.6	$10M	+$10M
2030	Arb-1	$6M	+1.7	$10M	+$6M
2031	Arb-2	$9M	+1.5	$8M	+$3M
2032	Arb-3	$11M	+1.3	$7M	+$0.5M
Totals		$29M		$47M	+$29M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	21	103	406	110	20	5	95%	4.7	20.6%	5.7%	15.0%	1.6%	2.53	2.96	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	21	103	406	110	20	5	95%	4.7	20.6%	5.7%	15.0%	1.6%	2.53	2.96	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	21	103	406	110	20	5	95%	4.7	27.1%	4.9%	22.2%	1.2%	2.53	2.18	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	12	12	55	235	49	23	6	100%	4.6	16.9%	10.8%	6.1%	3.1%	3.44	4.72	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	12	12	55	235	49	23	6	100%	4.6	16.9%	10.8%	6.1%	3.1%	3.44	4.72	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AA RAW	CLE	12	12	55	235	49	23	6	100%	4.6	20.9%	9.8%	11.1%	2.6%	3.44	3.98	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	CLE	1	1	8	32	7	2	1	100%	7.6	20.8%	5.2%	15.6%	2.7%	3.88	3.88	+0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	CLE	—	—	63	267	56	25	7	—	—	20.8%	9.2%	11.6%	2.6%	3.49	4.62	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CLE	22	22	121	511	111	27	14	100%	5.5	21.7%	5.2%	16.5%	2.7%	3.85	3.80	+1.6
2028	25	MLB MLE	CLE	24	24	140	593	132	31	16	100%	5.9	22.2%	5.2%	16.9%	2.7%	3.82	3.77	+1.9
2029	26	MLB MLE	CLE	25	25	152	644	144	34	18	100%	6.1	22.4%	5.3%	17.0%	2.7%	3.80	3.77	+2.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	CLE	25	25	150	634	142	35	18	100%	6.0	22.4%	5.5%	16.9%	2.8%	3.82	3.82	+1.9
2031	28	MLB MLE	CLE	24	24	146	615	137	35	18	100%	6.1	22.2%	5.6%	16.6%	2.9%	3.87	3.91	+1.7
2032	29	MLB MLE	CLE	23	23	139	587	129	34	18	100%	6.0	22.0%	5.8%	16.2%	3.1%	3.97	4.04	+1.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	CLE	22	22	131	552	120	34	18	100%	5.9	21.6%	6.1%	15.5%	3.3%	4.12	4.21	+1.1
2034	31	MLB MLE	CLE	20	20	122	515	109	33	18	100%	6.1	21.2%	6.5%	14.8%	3.5%	4.30	4.42	+0.7
2035	32	MLB MLE	CLE	19	19	113	477	99	33	18	100%	5.9	20.8%	6.9%	13.9%	3.7%	4.50	4.64	+0.3
2036	33	MLB MLE	CLE	17	17	104	437	89	32	18	100%	6.1	20.3%	7.3%	13.0%	4.0%	4.73	4.89	+0.0
2037	34	MLB MLE	CLE	16	16	94	398	79	31	17	100%	5.9	19.7%	7.8%	11.9%	4.3%	4.99	5.17	-0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	CLE	9	9	53	224	49	12	6	100%	5.9	21.7%	5.2%	16.5%	2.7%	3.85	3.80	+0.7
2028	25	MLB CTX	CLE	16	16	94	397	88	21	11	100%	5.9	22.2%	5.2%	16.9%	2.7%	3.82	3.77	+1.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	CLE	20	20	121	511	114	27	14	100%	6.0	22.4%	5.3%	17.0%	2.7%	3.80	3.77	+1.6
2030	27	MLB CTX	CLE	21	21	128	540	121	30	15	100%	6.1	22.4%	5.5%	16.9%	2.8%	3.82	3.82	+1.7
2031	28	MLB CTX	CLE	22	22	130	549	122	31	16	100%	5.9	22.2%	5.6%	16.6%	2.9%	3.87	3.91	+1.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	CLE	21	21	127	536	118	31	16	100%	6.0	22.0%	5.8%	16.2%	3.0%	3.97	4.04	+1.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	CLE	20	20	121	511	111	31	17	100%	6.0	21.6%	6.1%	15.5%	3.2%	4.12	4.21	+1.0
2034	31	MLB CTX	CLE	19	19	114	481	102	31	17	100%	6.0	21.2%	6.5%	14.8%	3.5%	4.30	4.42	+0.6
2035	32	MLB CTX	CLE	18	18	106	448	93	31	17	100%	5.9	20.8%	6.9%	13.9%	3.7%	4.49	4.63	+0.3
2036	33	MLB CTX	CLE	16	16	98	414	84	30	17	100%	6.1	20.3%	7.3%	13.0%	4.0%	4.72	4.88	+0.0
2037	34	MLB CTX	CLE	14	14	85	359	71	28	15	100%	6.1	19.7%	7.8%	11.9%	4.3%	4.98	5.16	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		197	197	1177	4969	1072	303	160	100%	6.0	21.6%	6.1%	15.5%	3.2%	4.14	3.82	+15.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	182	51	27	100%	6.0	21.6%	6.1%	15.5%	3.2%	4.14	3.82	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		34	33	158	641	123	48	14	97%	4.6	19.3%	7.5%	11.7%	2.1%	2.85	3.60	+12.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	42	200	811	156	61	17	97%	4.6	19.3%	7.5%	11.7%	2.1%	2.85	3.60	+1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Khal Stephen (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.88	20.8%	5.2%	2.7%	—	3.78	22.1%	16.8%	414	-0.10	—	—	—
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	90
Connor Lunn R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	23	SP	3.67	18.9%	4.7%	2.9%	.310	4.64	16.5%	10.0%	212	+0.97	3.67	332	88
Zebby Matthews R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	20.0%	4.1%	3.7%	.290	3.98	22.8%	17.1%	404	+0.02	3.18	510	86
Colin Peluse R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.299	5.51	14.8%	7.1%	236	+1.31	3.05	420	85
Alex Faedo R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP	3.73	22.9%	5.8%	3.3%	.293	4.52	18.0%	7.8%	54	+0.79	3.66	456	84
Tanner Gordon R 2021 · 4.35 FIP	23	SP	4.35	18.5%	5.5%	3.8%	.290	4.68	18.3%	11.7%	349	+0.33	3.83	709	84
Griffin Canning R 2019 · 3.60 FIP	23	SP	3.60	25.0%	7.2%	3.1%	.277	4.71	22.9%	13.0%	119	+1.11	3.60	801	83
Logan Workman R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	23	SP	4.33	19.3%	7.4%	3.5%	.287	3.97	19.8%	12.5%	362	-0.36	3.83	573	83
Mitchell Kilkenny R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	17.6%	5.5%	2.5%	.290	5.79	13.4%	5.1%	124	+2.12	3.18	237	83
Wil Jensen R 2021 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP	4.37	18.9%	6.9%	3.6%	.300	4.37	21.0%	11.3%	266	+0.00	3.48	368	82
Xzavion Curry R 2021 · 3.41 FIP	23	SP	3.41	24.6%	5.1%	3.2%	.247	4.98	18.3%	10.7%	320	+1.57	3.41	553	82
Hayden Wesneski R 2021 · 3.79 FIP	23	SP	3.79	23.2%	7.2%	3.1%	.295	4.17	22.4%	14.7%	336	+0.38	3.18	546	82
Connor McCullough R 2023 · 4.66 FIP	23	SP	4.66	21.8%	6.4%	4.7%	.280	4.09	19.9%	12.5%	148	-0.57	3.68	261	81
Erik Swanson R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	23	SP	3.98	15.5%	3.6%	3.2%	.340	4.17	23.7%	16.9%	197	+0.19	1.60	606	81
Cody Morris R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	22	SP	3.73	21.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.362	2.85	31.1%	20.9%	96	-0.88	2.23	256	81
Gabe Mosser R 2019 · 3.75 FIP	23	SP	3.75	17.7%	6.3%	2.5%	.346	4.57	14.9%	6.9%	104	+0.82	3.75	651	81
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	81
Will Ethridge R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	23	SP	4.14	16.8%	5.8%	3.1%	.274	5.54	14.6%	2.8%	129	+1.40	3.57	227	81
Matt Frisbee R 2019 · 4.00 FIP	22	SP	4.00	22.0%	6.0%	3.6%	.289	5.47	18.2%	11.7%	252	+1.47	4.00	463	81
Jason Bahr R 2018 · 3.79 FIP	23	SP	3.79	20.3%	8.2%	2.5%	.297	4.07	20.3%	7.1%	155	+0.28	3.33	315	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.5	125	21.6%	6.0%	1.22	4.10
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01