Charlie Christensen

Charlie Christensen P Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 22 RHP 6'4" / 190 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.9 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 35 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.26

FIP4.26

K%24.2%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%15.0%

ROS IP35

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$15M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	15	10	50	198	73	16	4	67%	3.3	27.5%	9.4%	18.1%	2.6%	2.52	3.37	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	15	10	50	198	73	16	4	67%	3.3	27.5%	9.4%	18.1%	2.6%	2.52	3.37	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	DET	11	6	35	143	56	8	1	55%	3.2	39.2%	5.6%	33.6%	0.7%	2.55	0.89	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	DET	4	4	15	55	17	8	3	100%	3.7	30.9%	14.5%	16.4%	5.5%	2.45	5.33	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	DET	9	9	51	214	53	19	6	100%	5.6	24.9%	8.8%	16.1%	3.0%	4.18	4.12	+0.5
2028	24	MLB MLE	DET	9	9	52	220	56	19	6	100%	5.8	25.3%	8.6%	16.8%	2.9%	4.10	4.03	+0.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	DET	9	9	53	223	57	19	7	100%	5.9	25.6%	8.5%	17.2%	2.9%	4.04	3.99	+0.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	DET	9	9	53	223	57	19	7	100%	5.9	25.8%	8.4%	17.3%	2.9%	4.00	3.98	+0.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	DET	9	9	52	220	57	19	7	100%	5.8	25.7%	8.5%	17.2%	3.0%	4.01	4.01	+0.6
2027	23	MLB CTX	DET	5	5	25	106	26	9	3	100%	5.0	24.9%	8.8%	16.1%	2.8%	4.11	4.05	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	DET	6	6	36	152	39	13	4	100%	6.0	25.3%	8.6%	16.8%	2.8%	4.03	3.96	+0.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	DET	7	7	43	182	46	15	5	100%	6.1	25.6%	8.5%	17.2%	2.8%	3.97	3.92	+0.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	DET	8	8	46	194	50	16	5	100%	5.8	25.8%	8.4%	17.3%	2.8%	3.93	3.91	+0.5
2031	27	MLB CTX	DET	8	8	47	198	51	17	6	100%	5.9	25.7%	8.5%	17.2%	2.8%	3.94	3.94	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		34	34	197	833	213	71	23	100%	5.8	25.5%	8.5%	17.0%	2.8%	3.98	3.57	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	216	72	23	100%	5.8	25.5%	8.5%	17.0%	2.8%	3.98	3.57	+3.2
Career	—	MLE		15	10	50	198	55	19	5	67%	3.3	27.5%	9.4%	18.1%	2.6%	2.52	3.37	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	40	200	792	218	75	20	67%	3.3	27.5%	9.4%	18.1%	2.6%	2.52	3.37	+2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Charlie Christensen (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.26	24.2%	9.3%	3.0%	—	4.05	25.3%	16.7%	156	-0.21	—	—	—
Connor Cooke R 2022 · 3.35 FIP	22	SP-	3.35	23.7%	8.4%	2.2%	.350	4.13	24.0%	11.4%	56	+0.78	2.93	103	87
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	86
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	84
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	84
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.98	18.5%	8.4%	306	+1.27	3.62	441	81
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	81
Jorge Juan R 2021 · 3.51 FIP	22	SP-	3.51	28.0%	10.1%	2.7%	.310	4.85	23.0%	4.7%	103	+1.34	3.48	238	81
Carson Rudd R 2021 · 3.39 FIP	22	SP-	3.39	25.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.351	5.24	21.6%	5.6%	193	+1.85	3.39	242	81
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	80
J.C. Flowers R 2021 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP-	3.59	21.3%	8.7%	2.1%	.330	4.86	16.2%	2.6%	184	+1.27	3.59	281	80
Brandon Bailey R 2017 · 3.54 FIP	22	SP-	3.54	24.6%	9.9%	2.3%	.290	4.44	21.2%	9.6%	215	+0.90	3.54	306	80
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	79
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	79
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	79
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	78
Javi Rivera R 2022 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP-	3.78	22.3%	7.9%	2.9%	.259	3.72	18.6%	9.0%	93	-0.06	2.81	274	78
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	78
Caleb Sampen R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	22	SP	3.46	21.7%	8.3%	2.1%	.358	3.49	15.2%	6.8%	139	+0.03	3.09	213	78
Clarke Schmidt R 2018 · 3.53 FIP	22	SP	3.53	23.1%	8.5%	2.4%	.324	3.26	21.3%	13.1%	108	-0.27	2.77	537	78
River Ryan R 2022 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	26.1%	12.2%	2.3%	.321	3.89	20.2%	9.1%	134	+0.20	2.11	220	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	49	25.3%	8.6%	1.14	4.09
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Joe Jiménez ('24)	1.9	53	29.8%	8.6%	1.11	4.06
Chris Devenski ('24)	1.9	62	26.0%	6.9%	1.25	3.61