Charlie Christensen
P
Lakeland Flying Tigers
Age 22
RHP
6'4" / 190 lbs
A
peak 0.5 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION46 act + 32 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 98
ERA4.30
FIP4.30
K%23.5%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%14.2%
ROS IP32
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 78 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 14 | 9 | 46 | 184 | 67 | 16 | 2 | 64% | 3.3 | 27.1% | 10.1% | 17.0% | 1.4% | 2.35 | 2.85 | +0.9 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | DET | 6 | 6 | 32 | 136 | 32 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.4 | 23.5% | 9.3% | 14.2% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | DET | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.5% | 9.3% | 14.2% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.30 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | DET | — | — | 78 | 320 | 99 | 29 | 6 | — | — | 30.9% | 9.0% | 22.0% | 1.9% | 3.15 | 3.45 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | DET | 6 | 6 | 33 | 141 | 34 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 5.6 | 24.2% | 8.8% | 15.4% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 4.16 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | DET | 3 | 3 | 16 | 68 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 5.3 | 24.2% | 8.8% | 15.4% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 4.16 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3 | 3 | 16 | 69 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 5.5 | 24.2% | 8.8% | 15.4% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 3.78 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 37 | 200 | 844 | 207 | 73 | 24 | 100% | 5.3 | 24.2% | 8.8% | 15.4% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 3.78 | +3.8 | ||
| Career | — | 14 | 9 | 46 | 184 | 50 | 19 | 3 | 64% | 3.3 | 27.1% | 10.1% | 17.0% | 1.4% | 2.35 | 2.85 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 61 | 39 | 200 | 800 | 217 | 81 | 11 | 64% | 3.3 | 27.1% | 10.1% | 17.0% | 1.4% | 2.35 | 2.85 | +6.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Charlie Christensen (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.30 | 23.5% | 9.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.16 | 24.2% | 15.4% | 33 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Connor Cooke R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .350 | 4.29 | 24.6% | 10.4% | 56 | +0.82 | 2.92 | 103 | 88 |
| Casey Legumina R 2028 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 87 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 234 | 86 |
| Michael Knorr R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .312 | 5.16 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +1.13 | 4.03 | 152 | 84 |
| Carson Rudd R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.43 | 25.4% | 10.6% | 2.1% | .351 | 5.24 | 21.6% | 5.6% | 193 | +1.81 | 3.43 | 242 | 82 |
| Colin Fields R 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.48 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 1.5% | .246 | 4.20 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 184 | +0.72 | 3.07 | 229 | 81 |
| Chad Donato R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.91 | 439 | 81 |
| Mason McGwire R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.50 | 23.5% | 10.9% | 1.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 128 | 81 |
| Ray Gaither R 2028 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 80 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2027 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 4.09 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.36 | 3.05 | 181 | 79 |
| Ricky Castro R 2028 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.93 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .287 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 140 | +0.65 | 3.90 | 202 | 79 |
| J.C. Flowers R 2027 · 3.39 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.39 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 4.95 | 16.5% | 1.9% | 184 | +1.56 | 3.39 | 281 | 79 |
| Jorge Juan R 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.32 | 28.0% | 10.1% | 2.4% | .310 | 4.96 | 23.0% | 4.7% | 103 | +1.64 | 3.32 | 238 | 79 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2028 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 79 |
| Sam Benschoter R 2028 · 3.96 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.96 | 26.3% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .344 | 5.03 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 306 | +1.07 | 3.58 | 426 | 79 |
| Tanner Hall R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.56 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 3.0% | .295 | 5.39 | 10.1% | -4.6% | 72 | +0.83 | 4.56 | 137 | 79 |
| Chris Campos R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.86 | 21.0% | 11.8% | 3.7% | .364 | 4.57 | 18.7% | 11.7% | 237 | -0.29 | 4.43 | 306 | 78 |
| Nick Fraze R 2027 · 4.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.68 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 4.1% | .271 | 4.64 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 162 | -0.04 | 3.81 | 278 | 78 |
| Caleb Sampen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.46 | 21.7% | 8.3% | 2.1% | .358 | 3.46 | 15.2% | 6.8% | 139 | +0.00 | 3.03 | 213 | 78 |
| Brandon Bailey R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.37 | 24.6% | 9.9% | 2.0% | .290 | 4.39 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 215 | +1.02 | 3.37 | 306 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 33 | 23.9% | 9.1% | 1.14 | 4.26 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Sam Hentges ('24) | 4 | 52 | 25.4% | 8.4% | 0.78 | 4.18 |